主要生态因子对贮藏玉米中黄曲霉生长影响的模拟

为了模拟贮藏玉米中主要生态因子对黄曲霉生长的影响,利用Baranyi和Roberts函数拟合了玉米中黄曲霉的生长数据,得到了不同温度和水分活度下玉米中黄曲霉的生长动力学模型。应用一个二次多项式函数分别建立了描述水分活度（aw）和温度对菌落生长的组合影响的模型。对模型的有效性分别进行了验证,其偏离因子分别为0.896和0.963。精确因子都小于1.15。结果证明构建的二次多项式预测模型可以很好的预报aw和温度对黄曲霉生长的比生长速率和迟滞期的组合影响。得出的方程可以用于预测贮藏玉米中黄曲霉生长情况。     

土壤空间变异研究中的半方差问题

简要回顾了土壤空间变异的研究。根据地质统计学理论和多年从事土壤空间变异研究的经验,对土壤空间变异研究的关键问题——半方差函数的基本假设、取样、模型选取及模型的检验进行了讨论,并对确定半方差函数模型应注意的问题提出建议。在保证取样样本容量的前提下,检查测定数据是否服从内蕴假设;注意提高每一个估算值的置信水平;尽量选择安全型模型作为半方差函数模型;对确定的半方差模型进行统计检验。由此可以求得较为客观合理的半方差模型。     

基于冠层相对湿度的日光温室黄瓜叶片湿润时间估计模型

叶片湿润时间是日光温室作物病害预警系统的关键输入,基于相对湿度的叶片湿润时间估计模型（简称RH阈值模型）是最简便的估计模型之一。为了在日光温室实际环境中对模型参数进行校准和检验,以夏末秋初的日光温室盛果期迷你黄瓜为试材,以5 min为间隔自动采集冠层相对湿度数据,采用试错法、平均值法和叶湿频率法3种校准方法对RH阈值进行校准,分别获得相对湿度RH=90%、89%和93% 3个阈值,并采用均方根误差法、回归分析法以及一系列误差分析指标对校准结果进行检验。结果表明：试错法和平均值法的预测效果要显著好于叶湿频率法,误差一般在1～2 h左右;与本试验中普遍超过3 h的叶片湿润时间相比,RH阈值模型监测效果仍然可接受;验证结果中,平均值法的效果反而好于试错法,这说明在实际应用中不能仅局限于一种校准方法。该文总结的模型校准和检验方法,以及构建的基于冠层相对湿度的叶片湿润时间估计模型,可以用于日光温室黄瓜叶片湿润时间监测,符合日光温室黄瓜病害预警系统的要求。     

The habitat requirements of the rufous treecreeper (Climacteris rufa). 2. Validating predictive habitat models

Examining the predictive capability of statistical models with data independent from that used to derive the model is a vital step in the iterative procedure of assessing model performance. I derived logistic regression models of the habitat use of the rufous treecreeper (Climacteris rufa) at two spatial scales: woodland (territory selection model) and territory (nest-site selection model). The performance of these models was assessed in relation to the original data collected and validated with new, independent data. When applied to the original data, the territory model had a high predictive capability correctly classifying 90% of sites (n=100) that were either occupied or unoccupied by treecreepers. Correct classification rate was reduced to 70% (n=50) when the model was applied to the validation data. Model performance was generally robust when probability of occurrence values for the species were varied. In contrast, the nest-site model had lower predictive capabilities correctly classifying between 66 and 68% of sites, and performed relatively poorly when probability values were varied. The performance of the models differed slightly between the original and validation data, and substantially between the spatial scales examined. Territory use by rufous treecreepers could be predicted with some confidence indicating that the territory model may be a useful tool for habitat management. Nest-site use could not be predicted with confidence probably as a result of the high abundance of suitable, but unused, nest sites in the study area.     

The regional distribution of large gliding possums in southern Queensland, Australia. I. The yellow-bellied glider (Petaurus australis)

Generalised linear modelling (logistic regression) was used to predict habitat suitability for the yellow-bellied glider (Petaurus australis) from data collected from 620 sites throughout southern Queensland, Australia. Of 42 potential explanatory biotic and abiotic variables, 12 were selected in the final model including an index describing bark characteristics of the overstorey, five climatic variables, three topographic/lithological variables, two landscape metrics and one survey covariate. The predictive capacity of the final model was evaluated using Receiver Operating Characteristic curves and an independent validation dataset (ROC = 0.75; n = 180). Of the extant forest and woodlands of the southern Queensland study region, the interpolated model predicted that approximately 19% was yellow-bellied glider habitat. The majority of predicted habitat occurred within public-owned forests, which are managed under a set of prescribed standards in a Code of Practice for commercial forest management. An important issue for conservation management of the yellow-bellied glider will be management of habitat on privately owned land, which incorporates over 27% of potential glider habitat.     

Validating erosion rate estimates provided by caesium‐137 measurements for two small forested catchments in Calabria,southern Italy

Increasing concern for problems of soil degradation and the off‐site impacts of accelerated erosion has generated a need for improved methods of estimating rates and patterns of soil erosion by water. The use of environmental radionuclides, particularly ¹³⁷Cs, to estimate erosion rates has attracted increased attention and the approach has been shown to possess several important advantages. However, the use of ¹³⁷Cs measurements to estimate erosion rates introduces one important uncertainty, namely, the need to employ a conversion model or relationship to convert the measured reduction in the ¹³⁷Cs inventory to an estimate of the erosion rate. There have been few attempts to validate these theoretical conversion models and the resulting erosion rate estimates. However, there is an important need for such validation, if the ¹³⁷Cs approach is to be more widely applied and reliance is to be placed on the results obtained. This paper reports the results of a study aimed at validating the use of two theoretical conversion models, namely the exponential depth distribution model and the diffusion and migration model, that have been used in several recent studies to convert measurements of ¹³⁷Cs inventories on uncultivated soils to estimates of soil erosion rates. The study is based on data assembled for two small catchments (1.38 and 1.65 ha) in Calabria, southern Italy, for which measurements of sediment output are available for the catchment outlet. The two catchments differ in terms of the steepness of their terrain, and this difference is reflected by their sediment yields. Because there is no evidence of significant deposition within the two catchments, sediment delivery ratios close to 1.0 can be assumed. It is therefore possible to make a direct comparison between the estimates of the mean annual erosion rates within the two catchments derived from ¹³⁷Cs measurements and the measured sediment outputs. The results of the comparison show that the erosion rate estimates provided by both models are reasonably consistent with the measured sediment yields at the catchment outlets. However, more detailed assessment of the results shows that the validity of the erosion rate estimates is influenced by the magnitude of the erosion rates within the catchment. The exponential depth distribution model appears to perform better for the catchment with higher erosion rates and to overestimate erosion rates in the other catchment. Similarly, the basic migration and diffusion model performs better for the catchment with lower erosion rates and overestimates erosion rates in the other catchment. However, the improved migration and diffusion model appears to perform satisfactorily for both catchments. There is a need for further studies to extend such independent validation of the ¹³⁷Cs technique to other environments, including cultivated soils, and to other conversion models and procedures. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Using Cs measurements to validate the application of the AGNPS and ANSWERS erosion and sediment yield models in two small Devon catchments

Distributed erosion and sediment yield models are being increasingly used for predicting soil erosion and sediment yields in agricultural catchments. In most applications, validation of such models has commonly been restricted to comparison of the predicted and measured sediment output from a catchment, because spatially distributed information on rates and patterns of soil redistribution within the catchment has been lacking. However, such spatially distributed data are needed for rigorous model testing, in order to validate the internal functioning of a model and its applicability at different spatial scales. The study reported in this paper uses two approaches to test the performance of the agricultural non-point source pollution (AGNPS) and areal non-point source watershed environmental response simulation (ANSWERS) erosion and sediment yield models in two small catchments in Devon, UK. These involve, firstly, comparison of observed and predicted runoff and sediment output data for individual storm events monitored at the basin outlets and, secondly, information on the spatial pattern of soil redistribution within the catchments derived from ¹³⁷Cs measurements. The results obtained indicate that catchment outputs simulated by both models are reasonably consistent with the recorded values, although the AGNPS model appears to provide closer agreement between observed and predicted values. However, the spatial patterns of soil redistribution and the sediment delivery ratios predicted for the two catchments by the AGNPS and ANSWERS models differ significantly. Comparison of the catchment sediment delivery ratios and the pattern of soil redistribution in individual fields predicted by the models with equivalent information derived from ¹³⁷Cs measurements indicates that the AGNPS model provides more meaningful predictions of erosion and sediment yield under UK conditions than the ANSWERS model and emphasises the importance of using information on both catchment output and sediment redistribution within the catchment for model validation.     

不同地理尺度下综合施肥模型的建模与验证

在新疆北疆采用包含正交设计的方案进行了多点肥料试验,建立了不同地理尺度下的综合施肥模型和肥料效应函数方程,通过校验试验对综合施肥模型与肥料效应函数方程施肥推荐施肥效果进行了比较研究。试验采用相同的试验设计在2000-2002年间进行,每年试验点数为31个。研究结果表明,通过趋势系数可以建立包括地点变量的综合肥料效应方程,回归方程各参数有明确的肥料学意义。不同地理尺度下建立的综合施肥模型都可以有效地进行施肥推荐。和传统的肥料效应函数方程相比,综合施肥模型的氮素推荐量与土壤碱解氮或有机质含量呈显著负相关,表明方程可以根据土壤供氮能力调节施氮量,在小尺度下尤其如此。综合施肥模型磷肥推荐量显著低于肥料效应函数方程推荐量,其推荐质量高于肥料效应函数方程。小尺度下综合施肥模型的推荐量比大尺度下综合施肥模型精确度更高,但两种施肥模型都优于肥料效应函数方程。     

新疆天山山区TRMM卫星降水数据的精度检验和校正方法研究

在降水资料缺乏的天山山区,基于重建时间序列后的NDVI和DEM数据,采用CART算法对TRMM3B43月降水数据进行校正。利用研究区25个站点实测降水量对校正前的TRMM降水数据和校正后的TRMM降水数据分别进行精度检验。结果表明:校正前TRMM月降水与站点实测降水有很好的一致性,存在显著的线性相关关系,但误差较大;TRMM降水与实测降水的决定系数(R2)随时间尺度的增大而减小,相对误差(δ)和均方根误差(RMSE)则随之增大,说明TRMM遥感数据的精度随时间尺度的增加而减小;校正后TRMM降水精度得到了显著地提高,与实测降水在月、季、年尺度上的R2分别为:0.97,0.87,0.83,相比校正前R~2提高了10%以上,误差也有明显的减小。这说明在天山山区,使用CART对TRMM降水数据进行校正的方法可行。     

烤烟专用有机肥的优选及肥效验证

选择重庆市山地烟区就地取材的有机物料进行堆肥试验,优选出有机物料最佳配比的烤烟专用有机肥产品,明确不同配比有机肥产品对烤烟的产、质效应。结果表明:各种参试有机肥与对照相比均显著提高了烤烟上中等烟的比例、产量和产值,C/N比较高的有机肥(M3、M4和M5)与饼肥和常规有机肥相比,显著提高烟叶上中等烟比例,3种高C/N比有机肥对烤烟生长、烟叶品质和烟叶协调性的作用都优于饼肥或常规有机肥。这可能是高C/N比有机肥对土壤微生物数量和土壤肥力改善的综合作用结果。因此,在重庆市烟叶生产中,根据产区实际情况,推荐施用高C/N比的有机肥代替现行的饼肥和常规有机堆肥,应用有机物料与烟杆一起发酵生产的有机肥是一种肥效较好、环境友好的有机肥。     

Documenting improvement in leaf area index estimates from MODIS using hemispherical photos for Australian savannas

This paper compares estimates of Leaf Area Index (LAI) obtained from the MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) collections 4.8 (MC4) and 5.0 (MC5) with ground-based measurements taken along a 900 km north-south transect through savanna in the Northern Territory, Australia. There was excellent agreement for both the magnitude and timing in the annual variation in LAI from MC5 and biometric estimates at Howard Springs, near Darwin, whereas MC4 overestimated LAI by 1-2 m² m⁻² for the first 200 days of the year. Estimates of LAI from MC5 were also compared with those obtained from the analysis of digital hemispherical photographs taken during the dry season (September 2008) based on algorithms that included random and clumped distribution of leaves. Linear regression of LAI from MC5 versus that using the clumping algorithm yielded a slope close to 1 (m = 0.98). The regression based on a random distribution of leaves yielded a slope significantly different from 1 (m = 1.37), with higher Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and bias compared to the clumped analysis. The intercept for either analysis was not significantly different from zero but inclusion of five additional sites that were visually bare or without green vegetation produced a statistically significant offset of +0.16 m² m⁻² by MC5. Overall, our results show considerable improvement of MC5 over MC4 LAI and good agreement between MC5 and ground-based LAI estimates from hemispherical photos incorporating clumping of leaves.     

Validation of topsoil texture derived from agricultural soil maps by current dense soil sampling

Agricultural soil maps were created to facilitate the management of fields. Such maps, at very large scale (1:5000), cover almost the entire agricultural land in Poland. These maps can be very useful for precision field management. However, they were prepared about 40–50 years ago using old mapping techniques with mainly field (organoleptic) examination of soil. For this reason it is necessary to verify agreement between such maps with the current soil status. In the case of detection of disagreements it is important to identify the causes and propose methods for improving soil maps. Only few studies were made in this aspect. The soil texture (ST) of the upper layer, as presented on the agricultural soil maps from the 1960s and 1970s, was compared with the actual ST of the same four fields in northern and central Poland. For laboratory ST determination, soil samples were collected in a dense sampling network. On average, the agreement of the ST presented on the agricultural soil maps and determined in this study was classified as medium for three fields and good for one field. However, the presence of field areas with poor agreement between the ST determined in this study and that shown on the agricultural maps was detected in all investigated fields. Identified causes for this comprised imprecision of ST determination using the organoleptic method, the generalization of the soil quality maps, and erosion processes during the years between soil mapping and this investigation. The improvement of ST presentation on the large scale soil maps might be achieved by quite denser soil sampling for ST analysis supported by ECa, yield and NDVI maps.     

基于SWAT模型的湟水流域径流模拟与评价

以青海省湟水流域民和水文站以上流域为研究区,在GIS技术支持下,运用分布式水文模型SWAT（Soil and Water Assessment Tool）进行了湟水流域天然径流的产流模拟,通过选用湟水流域1980～1997年相应的水文气象资料作为SWAT模型的输入数据,选用1980～1987年湟水流域出口民和站的年、月平均天然流量进行模型的参数率定,1989～1997年民和站的年、月平均天然流量进行模型的验证,采用了相对误差（RE）、相关系数（R2）以及Nash-Suttclife模拟系数（Ens）作为模型适用性的评价系数,结果表明SWAT模型对湟水流域长期天然径流变化过程模拟结果良好,较好地反映了湟水流域水资源的变化过程,为研究湟水流域的水资源提供了模型支持。     

Independent effects of woodland loss and fragmentation on Brown Treecreeper distribution

We examined the influence of local habitat and the surrounding landscape on the distribution of Brown Treecreepers in a matrix of woodlands and pastures. Our goals were to: (1) determine the importance and scale of the independent effects of woodland cover and fragmentation on treecreeper distribution, and (2) employ landscape variables to improve models of treecreeper distribution based on local habitat features. Woodland fragmentation was important at a large scale while both woodland cover and fragmentation were important at a smaller scale. Excluding unoccupied sites in highly fragmented landscapes improved the ability of local habitat features to explain Brown Treecreeper distribution, which appeared to be constrained by cavity density. Brown Treecreepers' response to fragmentation at the larger scale may occur because fragmentation disrupts dispersal. Alternatively, their response may be an example of a general phenomenon of fragmentation effects only arising when < 20% of woodland cover remains at a given scale. As fragmentation increases, so does the need to incorporate landscape patterns into wildlife-habitat models.     

黑加仑采收装置参数的优化

为了确定黑加仑采收机的关键参数,采用二次正交旋转回归组合试验设计的方法,分别建立了黑加仑采收率与振动频率、振幅、激振位置三因素之间关系的数学模型及果枝激振力与三者之间的数学模型,分析了各影响因素对黑加仑采收率及果枝激振力的影响,并进行了参数优化,确定了各影响因素的参数组合为振动频率945～1135 r/min、振幅33～25 mm、激振位置0.60,此时黑加仑采收率可达95%以上,果枝需要的激振力小于4 N,且无果实和果枝的损伤现象。     

土壤污染物源解析方法及其应用研究进展

本文介绍了污染物源解析的方法体系,重点对化学质量平衡法、多元统计模型、混合方法、分子标志物与同位素技术等受体模型研究方法的原理与应用进展加以总结,论述了化学质量平衡法和多元统计模型的优缺点、适用范围及应用现状;指出以这两种方法为基础形成的混合方法可避免前者选择排放源种类时的主观性,同时又可检验后者在鉴别过程中是否遗漏其他未知源,从而能够发挥最大的优势;最后对源解析方法的发展趋势及土壤学应用加以展望。     

农业土壤氧化亚氮排放模型研究进展

农业土壤产生的氧化亚氮气体（N2O）是重要人为N2O源。农业土壤N2O排放模型众多,根据模型建立方法的不同,可分为过程机理模型和经验模型。为探讨产生N2O的具体过程（硝化过程和反硝化过程）和关键因子,着重介绍了DNDC、DAYCENT、Ecosys、WNMM等机理过程模型,指出尽管各个模型的N循环过程类似,但不同侧重因子造成N2O排放量不同,并列出不同模型的特点和应用现状。对目前应用得比较广泛的经验统计模型,如经验归纳模型、回归模型以及其他统计模型等,归纳了其特点并介绍了国内外研究进展。通过对比过程机理模型和经验统计模型的优缺点,指出前者参数较多、过程复杂,用于点位模拟准确度高,后者所需参数少,适用区域范围模拟,点位模拟结果不确定性差。在此基础上指出区域N2O模拟排放量和排放特性将是以后发展的重点方向,并提出区域模拟关键问题的解决方向。     

有效降水指数在暴雨洪涝监测和评估中的应用

科学有效的监测和评估是防范和减轻暴雨洪涝灾害的重要基础。基于有效降水指数(EP)构建单站和区域暴雨洪涝监测、评估指标,利用1961-2014年湖北省76站逐日气象观测资料及相关灾情资料,确定降水衰减参数及致涝阈值,在此基础上分析EP指数在历史暴雨洪涝评估及实时暴雨洪涝过程监测中的应用效果。结果表明：经参数率定后的EP指数对农作物洪涝受灾面积的解释方差达78.1%,对年际间暴雨洪涝强度差异反应敏感,能识别历史典型大涝年和严重洪涝年,在2014年实时暴雨洪涝过程监测中能直观诊断出一般性暴雨洪涝的起止时间和过程动态变化,但对局地性和间歇性发生的暴雨洪涝过程刻画不足。创建EP指数所需数据资料少、计算简便,可用于洪涝灾害历史排位、年景评价、灾情预评估、风险区划以及作物产量建模等。