20世纪80年代中期全球变暖前后亚非夏季风特征分析

该文针对全球温度场在20世纪80年代全球明显的突然变暖事件,研究了变暖前后全球温度场和降水场的时空分布特征,以及相应季风环流圈的变化特征,并且与20世纪60年代全球变冷气候事件作了对比分析.结果表明,变暖后全球大范围增温,增温地区包括欧亚大陆大部、非洲地区大部和印度洋南部.与此同时,全球降水场也有明显的变化.1990—1995年与1980—1985年相比较,中国华北地区大部分地区、印度中南部和北非Sahel大部分地区夏季总降水量有所回升,而中国华北地区南部地区和印度北部地区降水有所减少.对比分析80年代变暖前后气候环流场,发现非洲夏季风在变暖后有所加强,印度夏季风有所减弱,东亚夏季风强度微弱加强.从海陆热力对比和华北和北非Sahel等地的夏季降水量的小波分析来看,60年代变冷气候事件以年代际信号为主,同位相叠加突出了年代际振荡的作用和强度;而80年代夏季降水量的各时间尺度年代际信号符号相反,相互抵消;与此同时,80年代年际时间尺度的信号较强,起主导作用.所以,80年代气候变暖事件与60年代气候变冷事件相比较,并不是单纯的气候年代际反位相振荡的结果,而是不同时间尺度信号相互作用下引起的气候不同的响应.      

The Holocene Asian monsoon: links to solar changes and North Atlantic climate

A 5-year-resolution absolute-dated oxygen isotope record from Dongge Cave, southern China, provides a continuous history of the Asian monsoon over the past 9000 years. Although the record broadly follows summer insolation, it is punctuated by eight weak monsoon events lasting approximately 1 to 5 centuries. One correlates with the "8200-year" event, another with the collapse of the Chinese Neolithic culture, and most with North Atlantic ice-rafting events. Cross-correlation of the decadal- to centennial-scale monsoon record with the atmospheric carbon-14 record shows that some, but not all, of the monsoon variability at these frequencies results from changes in solar output.     

Enhancement of Interdecadal Climate Variability in the Sahel by Vegetation Interaction

The role of naturally varying vegetation in influencing the climate variability in the West African Sahel is explored in a coupled atmosphere-land-vegetation model. The Sahel rainfall variability is influenced by sea-surface temperature variations in the oceans. Land-surface feedback is found to increase this variability both on interannual and interdecadal time scales. Interactive vegetation enhances the interdecadal variation substantially but can reduce year-to-year variability because of a phase lag introduced by the relatively slow vegetation adjustment time. Variations in vegetation accompany the changes in rainfall, in particular the multidecadal drying trend from the 1950s to the 1980s.     

Holocene forcing of the Indian monsoon recorded in a stalagmite from southern Oman

A high-resolution oxygen-isotope record from a thorium-uranium-dated stalagmite from southern Oman reflects variations in the amount of monsoon precipitation for the periods from 10.3 to 2.7 and 1.4 to 0.4 thousand years before the present (ky B.P.). Between 10.3 and 8 ky B.P., decadal to centennial variations in monsoon precipitation are in phase with temperature fluctuations recorded in Greenland ice cores, indicating that early Holocene monsoon intensity is largely controlled by glacial boundary conditions. After approximately 8 ky B.P., monsoon precipitation decreases gradually in response to changing Northern Hemisphere summer solar insolation, with decadal to multidecadal variations in monsoon precipitation being linked to solar activity.     

Assessing the feasibility of biological control of locusts and grasshoppers in West Africa: Incorporating the farmers' perspective

A participatory rural appraisal inthree West African countries examined thepossibility for replacing chemical pesticidesto control locusts and grasshoppers with abiological control method based on anindigenous fungal pathogen. The fungus iscurrently being tested at different sites inthe Sahel and in the humid tropics of WestAfrica. Structured group interviews, individualdiscussions, and field visits, were used toobtain farmers' perceptions of locust andgrasshoppers as crop pests, their quantitativeestimation of crop losses, and theirwillingness to pay for locust control. Farmersas well as plant protection officers generallyperceived locusts and grasshoppers as importantpests that cause significant damage. Farmerswere aware of some of the risks of the use ofchemical pesticides, but not of the potentialalternatives. The use of the fungus in anoil-formulation and standard Ultra Low Volume(ULV) equipment was demonstrated, and theresults discussed with farmers. Theirimpressions of biological control werefavorable, and they expressed an interest inusing the technology. Farmers' expressedwillingness to pay for locust control is small,but not negligible. Locusts and grasshoppersare very visible pests and thus amenable topressure from farmers to local administrators,as well as by farmers' relatives in the city onthe national government. Therefore, politicalpressure for locust control is strong, althoughnational governments spend little on it,depending mostly on foreign donors. Donors areincreasingly worried about the environmentaleffect of the large amounts of chemicalpesticides used on locust control, and arepushing for more benign alternatives. Theresults of the present survey indicate thatthere may be a potential market for abiopesticide against grasshoppers and locustson cash crops in the humid areas. The potentialmarket in the Sahel depends on a reduction ofcosts or a subsidy of its price. This subsidycould be justified by the expected reduction inenvironmental and health costs when replacingchemical pesticides. Since donors are thecurrent purchasers of chemical pesticides forthe Sahel, they would also be expected to beinvolved in the purchase of the biologicalproduct.     

两类季风槽特征及海南岛的强降水机制

为了提高海南季风槽暴雨预报水平,深入了解南海季风槽天气气候特征及其对强降水形成的影响,提高海南季风槽暴雨预报水平,利用NCEP再分析资料(1°×1°)及海南岛降水资料,统计分析了2001—2020年的5—9月205次南海季风槽活动及海南岛强降水（3站以上暴雨）过程的时空分布特征,季风槽位置按分为两类（Ⅰ、Ⅱ类）,分别对其强降水过程的高低空环流形势场和物理量场进行多样本合成对比分析。结果表明：(1)影响海南的季风槽过程年均出现10.3次,年均58.4 d,一次过程平均5.7 d,其中强降水占7.1%,主要发生在8月和9月,Ⅰ类季风槽在8月最活跃,9月最易产生强降水,Ⅱ类季风槽最活跃和强降水占比最高的月份均为9月,两类强降水的暴雨高频区分布差异较大,Ⅱ类更容易出现极端降水。（2）高层南亚高压的辐散作用、中低层强盛的季风和季风槽是发生强降水的前提,但季风槽位置不同导致影响降水的系统配置有区别。Ⅰ类强降水的发生与季风槽切变线位置、结构密切相关,季风将水汽和能量向槽区输送,季风槽低层辐合、高层辐散的配置特征使低层的对流和上升运动得以建立和加强从而产生降水,暴雨高频区与切变线南侧、气旋式环流右侧辐...     

季风进退和转换对中国褐飞虱迁飞的影响

利用近30年NCEP/NCAR 逐日气象再分析资料及中国褐飞虱逐候灯诱数据,分析季风指数与褐飞虱迁入量的时空关系,以探明季风进退和转换对我国褐飞虱迁入的影响。研究表明:(1)常年3月中、下旬是我国偏北季风转换为西南季风的时期,西南季风开始后的4月上旬是褐飞虱第1次大规模北迁的时期,第1次大规模北迁的主降区为华南稻区和西南稻区,随后迁向其北的其他稻区。(2)6月中旬-8月中旬是偏南季风指数达最大值的时期,也是各稻区褐飞虱北迁峰次最多、迁入量最集中的时期。(3)8月下旬至9月中旬为偏南季风向偏北季风的转换时期,也是褐飞虱北迁的终见期、南迁的始见期,第1次大规模南迁发生在这一时期内,主降区为江淮稻区和江岭稻区。(4)9月下旬至10月中旬是偏北季风的快速增强期、偏南季风的快速衰退期,也是褐飞虱南迁的高峰期。(5)10月下旬开始偏南季风撤出我国大陆,而偏北季风控制我国大陆,由北到南各稻区依次开始出现褐飞虱迁入的终见期。(6)褐飞虱异常发生年份中西南季风北上的早迟决定了褐飞虱在我国迁入始见期的早晚,而偏北季风南下的早迟则决定了我国褐飞虱迁入终见期的早晚。(7)迁入始见期滞后于西南季风的变化,迁入终见期滞后于偏北季风的变化,它们滞后的时间都为1-3候(即5-15d)。     

Somali current: evolution of surface flow

The transition of the Somali Current from northeast monsoon conditions to southwest monsoon conditions was observed from April through August 1979. The northeastward flow associated with the Somali Current of the southwest monsoon progressed from the equator in April to 4 degrees N in August. The separation of the current from the coast, as observed at the northern boundary of the northeastward flow, did not intrude north continuously, but rather in distinct steps. South of 4 degrees N, the circulation was characterized by the incorporation of increasing amounts of somewhat more saline water from the south and east into the boundary current. A clockwise gyre with northeastward flow along the coast developed between 6 degrees and 10 degrees N during June.     

South asian summer monsoon variability in a model with doubled atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration

Doubled atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration in a global coupled ocean-atmosphere climate model produced increased surface temperatures and evaporation and greater mean precipitation in the south Asian summer monsoon region. As a partial consequence, interannual variability of area-averaged monsoon rainfall was enhanced. Consistent with the climate sensitivity results from the model, observations showed a trend of increased interannual variability of Indian monsoon precipitation associated with warmer land and ocean temperatures in the monsoon region.     

Increase in the Asian southwest monsoon during the past four centuries

Climate reconstructions reveal unprecedented warming in the past century; however, little is known about trends in aspects such as the monsoon. We reconstructed the monsoon winds for the past 1000 years using fossil Globigerina bulloides abundance in box cores from the Arabian Sea and found that monsoon wind strength increased during the past four centuries as the Northern Hemisphere warmed. We infer that the observed link between Eurasian snow cover and the southwest monsoon persists on a centennial scale. Alternatively, the forcing implicated in the warming trend (volcanic aerosols, solar output, and greenhouse gases) may directly affect the monsoon. Either interpretation is consistent with the hypothesis that the southwest monsoon strength will increase during the coming century as greenhouse gas concentrations continue to rise and northern latitudes continue to warm.     

中国季风气候区域的划分

本文定义季风指数为: (1)一月和七月盛行风向转向角不小于120°; (2)一月和七月盛行风向平均频率接近或达到40％。用此划分中国季风气候区域。认为中国季风气候区包括辽、吉、黑、晋、冀、鲁、豫、苏、浙、闽、粤、桂、黔、滇、鄂、湘、皖、赣、陕、台、北京、上海、天津23省市自治区及四川、内蒙、宁夏、甘肃的一部分。 根据气候特征和植被分布,又划分中国季风区为四个季风气候区:(1)热带季风气候区,(2)副热带季风气候区,(3)温带季风气候区,(4)北温带季风气候区。     

山陕峡谷张家湾2 3 0k aB P以来黄土记录的环境信息

对山陕峡谷张家湾村蔚汾河阶地上沉积的黄土地层粒度—磁化率进行分析发现:沉积物的粒度—磁化率变化曲线能够很好地反映黄土—古土壤地层序列的变化.粒径小于5μm和大于40μm组份的体积分数曲线分别是夏季风和冬季风的良好替代性指标,通过粒度分析所绘制的各粒级组份体积分数曲线显示,古土壤S2、S1和Sm发育时期,东亚夏季风加强,粒径小于5μm组份的体积分数增大;黄土L2和L1堆积时期,冬季风有所加强,粒径大于40μm组份的体积分数增大.张家湾剖面的黄土记录只能在万年尺度上与深海氧同位素记录进行对比,整体上反映了最近230ka以来山陕峡谷东亚季风的演化过程.     

Strong association between west african rainfall and u.s. Landfall of intense hurricanes

Intense hurricanes occurred much more frequently during the period spanning the late 1940s through the late 1960s than during the 1970s and 1980s, except for 1988 and 1989. Seasonal and multidecadal variations of intense hurricane activity are closely linked to seasonal and multidecadal variations of summer rainfall amounts in the Western Sahel region of West Africa. The multidecadal nature of West African precipitation variations and their association with variations of intense Atlantic hurricane activity can be observed in data going back nearly a century. The apparent recent breaking of the 18-year Sahel drought during 1988 and 1989 suggests that the incidence of intense hurricanes making landfall on the U.S. coast and in the Caribbean basin will likely increase during the 1990s and early years of the 21st century to levels of activity notably greater than were observed during the 1970s and 1980s.     

155,000 years of West African monsoon and ocean thermal evolution

A detailed reconstruction of West African monsoon hydrology over the past 155,000 years suggests a close linkage to northern high-latitude climate oscillations. Ba/Ca ratio and oxygen isotope composition of planktonic foraminifera in a marine sediment core from the Gulf of Guinea, in the eastern equatorial Atlantic (EEA), reveal centennial-scale variations of riverine freshwater input that are synchronous with northern high-latitude stadials and interstadials of the penultimate interglacial and the last deglaciation. EEA Mg/Ca-based sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were decoupled from northern high-latitude millennial-scale fluctuation and primarily responded to changes in atmospheric greenhouse gases and low-latitude solar insolation. The onset of enhanced monsoon precipitation lags behind the changes in EEA SSTs by up to 7000 years during glacial-interglacial transitions. This study demonstrates that the stadial-interstadial and deglacial climate instability of the northern high latitudes exerts dominant control on the West African monsoon dynamics through an atmospheric linkage.     

近111年来东亚夏季风的变异及其与中国降水的关系

根据1899～2009年北半球月平均海平面气压场资料,计算近111年来东亚夏季风强度指数,分析了东亚夏季风的年代际及年际变化特征。结果表明,20世纪20年代东亚夏季风达最强,80年代中期以后东亚夏季风强度一直呈减弱趋势,其中21世纪初达最弱。Morlet小波分析发现,东亚夏季风年代际及年际变化中存在准10年和准2年显著性周期。我国东部降水的年际变化与东亚夏季风的强度变化密切相关,强（弱）东亚夏季风年份,长江中下游地区降水量比常年偏少（偏多）;而华北地区降水量比常年偏多（偏少）。东亚夏季风减弱是造成20世纪80年代中期以后华北地区干旱少雨,长江中下游地区洪涝多雨的一个重要原因。     

High-latitude forcing of the South American summer monsoon during the Last Glacial

The climate of the Last Glacial period (10,000 to 110,000 years ago) was characterized by rapid millennial-scale climate fluctuations termed Dansgaard/Oeschger (D/O) and Heinrich events. We present results from a speleothem-derived proxy of the South American summer monsoon (SASM) from 16,000 to 50,000 years ago that demonstrate the occurrence of D/O cycles and Heinrich events. This tropical Southern Hemisphere monsoon reconstruction illustrates an antiphase relationship to Northern Hemisphere monsoon intensity at the millennial scale. Our results also show an influence of Antarctic millennial-scale climate fluctuations on the SASM. This high-resolution, precisely dated, tropical precipitation record can be used to establish the timing of climate events in the high latitudes of the Northern and Southern Hemispheres.     

亚洲夏季风区气候平均季节内振荡扰动动能的结构和传播特征

[目的]研究亚洲夏季风区气候平均季节内振荡扰动动能的结构和传播特征。[方法]从南海季风开始爆发时着手,分析了季风区季节内振荡扰动动能,尤其是对南海季风变化、印度季风发展和东亚季风推进的研究。[结果]亚洲夏季风的发展进程与30-60 d低频振荡的扰动动能活动有密切关系,这种扰动动能从能量的角度解释了季风的爆发、发生发展和终止,并发现阿拉伯海区、孟加拉湾及南海海区的扰动动能最强,尤其是阿拉伯海区,说明阿拉伯海海区即索马里急流是亚洲季风最大的能量源。整个亚洲季风爆发开始的标志是南海季风的突然爆发,而5月中旬南海季风的爆发是菲律宾以东洋面扰动动能西传的结果;东亚季风区扰动动能在夏季存在季节性北推,印度季风区扰动动能高值中心由1个变为2个,分别对应于阿拉伯海和孟加拉湾。[结论]该研究为大气季节内振荡分析提供理论依据。     

Coupled land-ocean-atmosphere processes and South asian monsoon variability

Results from a global coupled ocean-atmosphere climate model and a model with specified tropical convective heating anomalies show that the South Asian monsoon was an active part of the tropical biennial oscillation (TBO). Convective heating anomalies over Africa and the western Pacific Ocean associated with the TBO altered the simulated pattern of atmospheric circulation for the Northern Hemisphere winter mid-latitude over Asia. This alteration in the mid-latitude circulation maintained temperature anomalies over South Asia through winter and helped set up the land-sea temperature contrast for subsequent monsoon development. South Asian snow cover contributed to monsoon strength but was symptomatic of the larger scale alteration in the mid-latitude atmospheric circulation pattern.     

Glacial-interglacial Indian summer monsoon dynamics

The modern Indian summer monsoon (ISM) is characterized by exceptionally strong interhemispheric transport, indicating the importance of both Northern and Southern Hemisphere processes driving monsoon variability. Here, we present a high-resolution continental record from southwestern China that demonstrates the importance of interhemispheric forcing in driving ISM variability at the glacial-interglacial time scale as well. Interglacial ISM maxima are dominated by an enhanced Indian low associated with global ice volume minima. In contrast, the glacial ISM reaches a minimum, and actually begins to increase, before global ice volume reaches a maximum. We attribute this early strengthening to an increased cross-equatorial pressure gradient derived from Southern Hemisphere high-latitude cooling. This mechanism explains much of the nonorbital scale variance in the Pleistocene ISM record.     

中国不同气候区小麦产量及发育期持续时间对田间增温的响应

【目的】气候变暖对小麦生长发育有重要影响。然而,中国不同气候区小麦生长发育对温度升高的响应程度仍未系统量化。因此,急需阐明不同气候区增温及不同时段增温对小麦产量及发育期持续时间的影响程度,揭示小麦产量及发育期对增温的响应规律。【方法】本文搜集了1990-2017年间已发表的关于中国小麦全生育期田间持续增温条件下小麦产量变化的21篇文献,运用整合分析（Meta-analysis）量化田间不同增温幅度及不同时段增温对中国小麦产量及生育期的影响程度,系统阐明其在不同气候区的差异及规律。【结果】（1）亚热带季风区增温（0-3℃）显著增加小麦产量、千粒重和穗粒数,其平均增幅分别为8.2%、6.3%和4.7%;温带季风区增温（0-3℃）显著增加小麦产量、穗粒数和穗数,其平均增幅分别为6.8%、3.9%和5.5%,而温带大陆性气候区增温（0-3℃）显著降低小麦产量、千粒重和穗粒数,其平均降幅分别为10.2%、5.9%和8.3%。其中,亚热带季风区增温0-2℃,小麦产量显著提高了8.5%,而增温2-3℃时,小麦并未增产;温带季风气候区小麦增产愈为明显,当增温2-3℃时小麦的增产幅度达14.5%;相反,在温带大陆性气候区增温0-2℃和2-3℃时,小麦分别显著减产10.1%和15.9%。（2）亚热带季风区和温带大陆性气候区增温（0-3℃）小麦全生育期持续时间分别缩短了3.3%和7.1%,相反,在温带季风区,增温并未明显改变小麦全生育期持续时间;与此同时温带大陆性气候区和温带季风气候区的生殖期持续时间并无明显变化,而亚热带季风区小麦生殖生长持续时间却显著增加（8.7%）。（3）总体来看（季风气候区所有独立研究结果）夜间增温0-2℃和2-3℃对小麦产量有显著影响,小麦分别增产10.5%和15.0%。【结论】田间增温会显著影响中国粮食主产区小麦产量以及发育期持续时间,但不同气候区及不同时段增温对小麦生长和发育的影响不同。本研究结果可为未来气候变化新态势下中国粮食主产区种植制度优化与合理布局提供科学依据。