Long-term trends in fish recruitment in the north-east Atlantic related to climate change

This study investigates the temporal correspondence between the main patterns of recruitment variations among north‐east Atlantic exploited fish populations and large‐scale climate and temperature indices. It is of primary importance to know what changes in fish stock productivity can be expected in response to climate change, to design appropriate management strategies. The dominant patterns of recruitment variation were extracted using a standardized principal component analysis (PCA). The first principal component (PC) was a long‐term decline, with a stepwise change occurring in 1987. A majority of Baltic Sea, North Sea, west of Scotland and Irish Sea populations, especially the gadoids, have followed this decreasing trend. On the contrary, some herring populations and the populations of boreal ecosystems have followed an opposite increasing trend. The dominant signal in north‐east Atlantic sea surface temperature, also extracted by a PCA, was highly correlated with the increase in the Northern Hemisphere Temperature anomaly, which is considered to be an index of global warming. The first component of recruitment was inversely correlated with these changes in regional and global temperature. The second PC of recruitment was a decadal scale oscillation, which was not correlated with climate indicators. The analysis of correlations between population recruitment and local temperature also indicated that the dominant pattern of recruitment variation may be related to an effect of global warming. The influence of fishing on recruitment, via its effect on the spawning stock biomass (SSB), was also investigated by the analysis of correlations between fishing mortality, SSB and recruitment. Results indicate that fishing can be another factor explaining recruitment trends, probably acting in combination with the effect of climate, but cannot explain alone the patterns of recruitment variation found here.     

The role of environmental conditions and exploitation in determining dynamics of redfish (Sebastes species) in the Northwest Atlantic

The six stocks of redfish (Sebastes spp.) in the Northwest Atlantic have been fished for the past 60 years, during which time they have also experienced considerable variability in environmental conditions. Despite their close proximity and with life‐history features characteristic of many deep‐sea fishes (long‐lived, slow‐growing, late‐maturing, relatively low fecundity), each redfish stock has displayed quite different dynamics. Some have been able to support apparently sustainable fisheries, whereas others have been forced to close. The causes of such differences are unclear. We used dynamic factor analysis to determine the relative impacts of exploitation (days fishing for redfish, days fishing for shrimp, days fished by all fisheries, catch in the redfish fishery, total redfish catch) and environment (North Atlantic Oscillation, surface temperature, salinity, shallow, middle, and deep bottom temperatures) on trends of abundance in each stock over the years 1960–2004. The results showed that a mix of exploitation and environmental variability, with various and different lag times, accounted for observed trends. The Gulf of St. Lawrence stock was affected most by exploitation. Flemish Cap and northern Newfoundland‐Labrador stocks were mostly affected by environmental factors with longer time lags than more southerly stocks. We conclude that management of redfish must take into account individual responses to exploitation and environment over the time periods during which such factors operate, often decades or more, as opposed to the usual practice of reviewing only dynamics of the past few years. Deep‐sea populations cannot be managed on the same scales as shelf fisheries.     

Productivity and recovery of forage fish under climate change and fishing: North Sea sandeel as a case study

Forage fish occupy a central position in marine food‐webs worldwide by mediating the transfer of energy and organic matter from lower to higher trophic levels. The lesser sandeel (Ammodytes marinus) is one of the ecologically and economically most important forage fish species in the North‐east Atlantic, acting as a key prey for predatory fish and sea birds, as well as supporting a large commercial fishery. In this case study, we investigate the underlying factors affecting recruitment and how these in turn affect productivity of the North Sea sandeel using long‐term data and modelling. Our results demonstrate how sandeel productivity in the central North Sea (Dogger Bank) depends on a combination of external and internal regulatory factors, including fishing and climate effects, as well as density dependence and food availability of the preferred zooplankton prey (Calanus finmarchicus and Temora longicornis). Furthermore, our model scenarios suggest that while fishing largely contributed to the abrupt stock decline during the late 1990s and the following period of low biomass, a complete recovery of the stock to the highly productive levels of the early 1980s would only be possible through changes in the surrounding ecosystem, involving lower temperatures and improved feeding conditions. To that end, we stress the need for ecosystem‐based management accounting for multiple internal and external factors occurring within the broader context of the ecosystem in which forage fish species, such as sandeel, play an important and integral part.     

Cyclic fluctuations of blue whiting (Micromesistius poutassou) linked to open‐sea convection processes in the northwestern Mediterranean

In the Mediterranean, blue whiting, Micromesistius poutassou, constitutes a traditional fisheries resource. Over several decades, blue whiting landings in the Catalan coast (northwestern Mediterranean) have displayed cyclical variations, of c. 6 yrs, slightly decreased to five in the last two decades, as shown through wavelet analysis. These fluctuations have persisted under very different levels of fishing effort. This study evaluates the hypothesis that deep‐water formation in the adjacent Gulf of Lions, and the enhanced primary productivity related to it, determines recruitment strength in blue whiting that results ultimately in the observed periodicity of the blue whiting landings. The link between landings and environmental drivers was explored using lagged cross‐correlations, with 0‐ and 1‐yr lag. The variables considered included large‐scale indices [North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Atlantic Multi‐decadal Oscillation (AMO)], Mediterranean climate indices [MO and Western Mediterranean Oscillation (WeMO)], and variables defining the local environmental conditions in the northwestern Mediterranean (sea‐air heat flux, winter air temperature anomaly and Rhône river runoff). Significant correlations were only found between landings (1961–2011) and sea‐air heat flux, which is generally taken as an indicator of processes of deep water convection, at 0 and 1‐yr lag. These results suggest that the observed fluctuations in blue whiting landings respond to oceanographic processes taking place in the Gulf of Lions.     

The growth of larval cod and haddock in the Irish Sea: a model with temperature,prey size and turbulence forcing

We applied a physiological individual‐based model for the foraging and growth of cod (Gadus morhua) and haddock (Melanogrammus aeglefinus) larvae, using observed temperature and prey fields data from the Irish Sea, collected during the 2006 spawning season. We used the model to estimate larval growth and survival and explore the different productivities of the cod and haddock stocks encountered in the Irish Sea. The larvae of both species showed similar responses to changes in environmental conditions (temperature, wind, prey availability, daylight hours) and better survival was predicted in the western Irish Sea, covering the spawning ground for haddock and about half of that for cod. Larval growth was predicted to be mostly prey‐limited, but exploration of stock recruitment data suggests that other factors are important to ensure successful recruitment. We suggest that the presence of a cyclonic gyre in the western Irish Sea, influencing the retention and/or dispersal of larvae from their spawning grounds, and the increasing abundance of clupeids adding predatory pressure on the eggs and larvae; both may play a key role. These two processes deserve more attention if we want to understand the mechanisms behind the recruitment of cod and haddock in the Irish Sea. For the ecosystem‐based management approach, there is a need to achieve a greater understanding of the interactions between species on the scale a fish stock is managed, and to work toward integrated fisheries management in particular when considering the effects of advection from spawning grounds and prey–predator reversal on the recovery of depleted stocks.     

Rebuilding Mediterranean fisheries: a new paradigm for ecological sustainability

In Mediterranean European countries, 85% of the assessed stocks are currently overfished compared to a maximum sustainable yield reference value (MSY) while populations of many commercial species are characterized by truncated size‐ and age‐structures. Rebuilding the size‐ and age‐structure of exploited populations is a management objective that combines single species targets such as MSY with specific goals of the ecosystem approach to fisheries management (EAF), preserving community size‐structure and the ecological role of different species. Here, we show that under the current fishing regime, stock productivity and fleet profitability are generally impaired by a combination of high fishing mortality and inadequate selectivity patterns. For most of the stocks analysed, a simple reduction in the current fishing mortality (F_cur) towards an MSY reference value (F_MSY), without any change in the fishing selectivity, will allow neither stock biomass nor fisheries yield and revenue to be maximized. On the contrary, management targets can be achieved only through a radical change in fisheries selectivity. Shifting the size of first capture towards the size at which fish cohorts achieve their maximum biomass, the so‐called optimal length, would produce on average between two and three times higher economic yields and much higher biomass at sea for the exploited stocks. Moreover, it would contribute to restore marine ecosystem structure and resilience to enhance ecosystem services such as reservoirs of biodiversity and functioning food webs.     

Is the effect of the NAO on North‐east Arctic cod,Gadus morhua,recruitment stock‐dependent?

There is considerable interest in understanding the effect of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on recruitment to North Atlantic cod stocks. An earlier analysis of data for the North‐east Arctic cod stock showed that, while there is an empirical relationship between recruitment and the NAO over the period 1973–96, this relationship was absent over the period 1946–72. It has recently been suggested that the effect of the NAO on recruitment depends on the size of the spawning stock. Here, the possibility that this explains the earlier result for North‐east Arctic cod is tested and rejected.     

Evaluating the utility of the Gulf Stream Index for predicting recruitment of Southern New England‐Mid Atlantic yellowtail flounder

The justification for incorporating environmental effects into fisheries stock assessment models has been investigated and debated for a long time. Recently, a state‐space age‐structured assessment model which includes the stochastic change in the environmental covariate over time and its effect on recruitment was developed for Southern New England‐Mid Atlantic yellowtail flounder (Limanda ferruginea). In this paper, we first investigated the correlations of environmental covariates with Southern New England‐Mid Atlantic yellowtail flounder recruitment deviations. The covariate that was most strongly correlated with the recruitment deviations was then incorporated into the state‐space model and alternative effects on the stock‐recruit relationship were estimated and compared. For the model that performed best as measured by Akaike information criterion, we also compared the estimates and predictions of various population attributes and biological reference points with those from an otherwise identical model without the environmental covariate in the stock‐recruit function. We found that the estimates of population parameters are similar for the two models but the predictions differed substantially. To evaluate which model provided more reliable predictions, we quantitatively compared the prediction skill of the two models by generating two series of retrospective predictions. Comparison of the retrospective prediction pattern suggested that from an average point of view, the environmentally explicit model can provide more accurate near‐term recruitment predictions especially the one year ahead recruitment prediction. However, the accuracy of the near‐term recruitment prediction from the environmentally explicit model was largely determined by the accuracy of the corresponding environment prediction the model provides.     

Ecosystem‐based forecasts of recruitment in two menhaden species

Gulf (Brevoortia patronus, Clupeidae) and Atlantic menhaden (Brevoortia tyrannus, Clupeidae) support large fisheries that have shown substantial variability over several decades, in part, due to dependence on annual recruitment. Nevertheless, traditional stock–recruitment relationships lack predictive power for these stocks. Current management of Atlantic menhaden explicitly treats recruitment as a random process. However, traditional methods for understanding recruitment variability carry the very specific hypothesis that the effect of adult biomass on subsequent recruitment occurs independently of other ecosystem factors such as food availability and predation. Here, we evaluate the predictability of menhaden recruitment using a model‐free approach that is not restricted by these strong assumptions. We find that menhaden recruitment is predictable, but only when allowing for interdependence of stock with other ecological factors. Moreover, while the analysis confirms the presence of environmental effects, the environment alone does not readily account for the complexity of menhaden recruitment dynamics. The findings set the stage for revisiting recruitment prediction in management and serve as an instructive example in the ongoing debate about how to best treat and understand recruitment variability across species and fisheries.     

Climate,oceanography, and recruitment: the case of the Bay of Biscay anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus)

The Bay of Biscay anchovy has experienced, since 2001, a succession of low recruitments, resulting in the collapse of the stock in 2005; this has led to successive closures of the fishery. This study investigates the possible impact of different controlling factors [North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), East Atlantic (EA) pattern, turbulence, upwelling, and river flow] upon anchovy recruitment and fishery catches. Fifty‐five percent of the recruitment variability of this fishery can be explained by upwelling over the spawning area; this is related, in turn, to the EA pattern. The conceptual understanding of the system proposed for the Bay of Biscay anchovy suggests that negative EA periods are associated with northeasterly wind circulation, which produces weak upwelling over the continental shelf. This pattern results in hydrodynamic stability over the area, leading, probably, to adequate food availability. A positive EA (which extends onwards, from 1998) is associated with southwesterly winds and downwelling over the continental shelf; this leads, probably, to the dispersion of anchovy food and larvae, together with increasing mortality.     

Links between the recruitment success of northern European hake (Merluccius merluccius L.) and a regime shift on the NE Atlantic continental shelf

The distribution of northern European hake (Merluccius merluccius L.) extends from the Bay of Biscay up to Norwegian waters. However, despite its wide geographical distribution, there have been few studies on fluctuations in the European hake populations. Marine ecosystem shifts have been investigated worldwide and their influence on trophic levels has been studied, from top predator fish populations down to planktonic prey species, but there is little information on the effect of atmosphere–ocean shifts on European hake. This work analyses hake recruitment success (recruits per adult biomass) in relation to environmental changes over the period 1978–2006 in order to determine whether the regime shift identified in several abiotic and biotic variables in the North Sea also affected the Northeast Atlantic shelf oceanography. Hake recruitment success as well as parameters such as the sea surface temperature, wind patterns and copepod abundance changed significantly at the end of the 1980s, demonstrating an ecological regime shift in the Northeast Atlantic. Despite the low reproductive biomass recorded during the last decades, hake recruitment success has been higher since the change in 1989/90. The higher productivity may have sustained the population despite the intense fishing pressure; copepod abundance, warmer water temperatures and moderate eastward transport were found to be beneficial. In conclusion, in 1988/89 the Northeast Atlantic environment shifted to a favourable regime for northern hake production. This study supports the hypothesis that the hydro‐climatic regime shift that affected the North Sea in the late 1980s may have influenced a wider region, such as the Northeast Atlantic.     

Ecosystem processes are rarely included in tactical fisheries management

Fish stock productivity, and thereby sensitivity to harvesting, depends on physical (e.g. ocean climate) and biological (e.g. prey availability, competition and predation) processes in the ecosystem. The combined impacts of such ecosystem processes and fisheries have lead to stock collapses across the world. While traditional fisheries management focuses on harvest rates and stock biomass, incorporating the impacts of such ecosystem processes are one of the main pillars of the ecosystem approach to fisheries management (EAFM). Although EAFM has been formally adopted widely since the 1990s, little is currently known to what extent ecosystem drivers of fish stock productivity are actually implemented in fisheries management. Based on worldwide review of more than 1200 marine fish stocks, we found that such ecosystem drivers were implemented in the tactical management of only 24 stocks. Most of these cases were in the North Atlantic and north‐east Pacific, where the scientific support is strong. However, the diversity of ecosystem drivers implemented, and in the approaches taken, suggests that implementation is largely a bottom‐up process driven by a few dedicated experts. Our results demonstrate that tactical fisheries management is still predominantly single‐species oriented taking little account of ecosystem processes, implicitly ignoring that fish stock production is dependent on the physical and biological conditions of the ecosystem. Thus, while the ecosystem approach is highlighted in policy, key aspects of it tend yet not to be implemented in actual fisheries management.     

Multi‐decadal climate and fishing predictors of abundance for U.S. South Atlantic coastal fishes and invertebrates

Abundance of marine stocks fluctuates in response to both internal processes (e.g., density dependence) and exogenous drivers, including the physical environment, fishing, and trophodynamic interactions. In the United States, research investigating ecosystem drivers has been focused in data‐rich systems, primarily in the North Atlantic and North Pacific. To develop a more holistic understanding of important ecosystem drivers in the Southeast U.S. continental shelf Large Marine Ecosystem, we applied generalized linear and dynamic linear modeling to investigate the effects of climate and fishing covariates on the relative abundance trends of 71 demersal fish and invertebrate species sampled by a coastal trawl survey during 1990–2013. For the assemblage as a whole, fishing effects predominated over climate effects. In particular, changes in trawling effort within the penaeid shrimp fishery governed abundance trends of bony fishes, invertebrates, and elasmobranchs, a likely result of temporal changes in bycatch mortality. Changes in trawling intensity induced changes in overall community composition and appear to have altered trophic interactions among particular species. Among climate indices investigated, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the Western Bermuda High Index were most prevalent in well‐supported dynamic linear models. Observed annual abundance trends were synchronous among some taxonomically related species, highlighting similar responses to exogenous influences based on life history. This study strengthens the foundation for generating hypotheses and advancing ecosystem‐based fisheries research within the region.     

Contributions of food web modelling to the ecosystem approach to marine resource management in the Mediterranean Sea

Ecological modelling tools are applied worldwide to support the ecosystem‐based approach of marine resources (EAM). In the last decades, numerous applications were attempted in the Mediterranean Sea, mainly using the Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE) tool. These models were used to analyse a variety of complex environmental problems. Many applications analysed the ecosystem impacts of fishing and assessed management options. Other studies dealt with the accumulation of pollution through the food web, the impact of aquaculture or the ecosystem effects of climate change. They contributed to the scientific aspects of an ecosystem‐based approach in the region because they integrated human activities within an ecosystem context and evaluated their impact on the marine food web, including environmental factors. These studies also gathered a significant amount of information at an ecosystem level. Thus, in the second part of this review, we used this information to quantify structural and functional traits of Mediterranean marine ecosystems at regional scales as the illustration of further potentialities of EwE for an EAM. Results highlighted differential traits between ecosystem types and a few between basins, which illustrate the environmental heterogeneity of the Mediterranean Sea. Moreover, our analysis evidenced the importance of top predators and small pelagic fish in Mediterranean ecosystems, in addition to the structural role of benthos and plankton organisms. The impact of fishing was high and of a similar intensity in the western, central and eastern regions and showed differences between ecosystem types. The keystone role of species was more prominent in protected environments.     

Are the long‐term fluctuations in Atlantic bluefin tuna (Thunnus thynnus) population related to environmental changes?

We tested whether synchronous, long‐term fluctuations in Atlantic bluefin tuna (Thunnus thynnus) trap catches, collected from the ancestral Mediterranean and Atlantic trap fishery, might be related to large‐scale environmental change. Nine time series of trap catches of more than 80 yr long were compared with long time series of three preselected environmental variables, i.e. the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Length of the Day Index (LOD, a proxy of the atmospheric circulation index) and the temperature. Spectral analyses of trap catches, LOD and temperature displayed similar spectra with peaks at low frequencies, whereas those of the NAO exhibited a broad band spectrum. Regression analyses and tests of correlation did not reveal any clear relationship between trap catches on the one hand and NAO and LOD on the other hand. In contrast, long‐term fluctuations in trap catches appear to be closely and negatively related to long‐term trends in temperature. Underlying processes that could explain such a relationship are discussed, with special focus on changes in migration patterns of the Atlantic bluefin tuna.     

Expanding the concept of sustainable seafood using Life Cycle Assessment

Fisheries management and sustainability assessment of fisheries more generally have recently expanded their scope from single‐species stock assessment to ecosystem‐based approaches, aiming to incorporate economic, social and local environmental impacts, while still excluding global‐scale environmental impacts. In parallel, Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) has emerged as a widely used and recommended framework to assess environmental impacts of products, including global‐scale impacts. For over a decade, LCA has been applied to seafood supply chains, leading to new insights into the environmental impact of seafood products. We present insights from seafood LCA research with particular focus on evaluating fisheries management, which strongly influences the environmental impact of seafood products. Further, we suggest tangible ways in which LCA could be taken up in management. By identifying trade‐offs, LCA can be a useful decision support tool and avoids problem shifting from one concern (or activity) to another. The integrated, product‐based and quantitative perspective brought by LCA could complement existing tools. One example is to follow up fuel use of fishing, as the production and combustion of fuel used dominates overall results for various types of environmental impacts of seafood products, and is also often linked to biological impacts of fishing. Reducing the fuel use of fisheries is therefore effective to reduce overall impacts. Allocating fishing rights based on environmental performance could likewise facilitate the transition to low‐impact fisheries. Taking these steps in an open dialogue between fishers, managers, industry, NGOs and consumers would enable more targeted progress towards sustainable fisheries.     

公海深海底层渔业国际管理进展

以底拖网为代表的深海底层渔业对深海脆弱海洋生态系统的危害受到国际社会的热切关注。2003年以来联合国大会多次通过决议,呼吁各国各自并通过RFMO/As采取行动,根据预防性原则,采用基于生态系统的管理方法,评估深海底层渔业对脆弱海洋生态系统的影响,若评估表明确有重大不利影响,则应采取有效措施限制深海底层渔业以降低这种影响;FAO主要从技术角度制定了《公海深海渔业管理国际指南》,为管理公海深海渔业和保护脆弱海洋生态系统提出了技术标准和管理框架;RFMO承担着具体执行深海底层渔业管理措施和监督管理的责任,在北大西洋、地中海、南太平洋的公海和南极水域,相关RFMO已采取了暂停部分区域底拖网渔业活动、收集数据、评估底拖网对脆弱海洋生态系统的影响等措施,在北太平洋,新成立的北太平洋渔业管理委员会将公海底层渔业管理作为首要目标。环保非政府组织和部分科学家呼吁禁止公海深海底层渔业,但各国对此的立场尚不一致,产业界大多持反对立场。近期来看,尚难以全面禁止公海的深海底层渔业。中国正在发展公海大洋渔业,需对此密切关注,加强跟踪研究以支撑决策,并应发展和使用选择性渔具和对生态环境无害的作业方式,防止对脆弱海洋生态系统产生损害性影响。     

Dependence of recruitment on parent stock of the spiny lobster,Panulirus argus,in Florida

Despite management practices to achieve sustainability, commercial landings for Florida spiny lobster (Panulirus argus) have experienced a drastic decline (57%) since 2000. This is cause for concern not only for economic reasons, but for issues of sustainability. An annual index of P. argus post‐larval (puerulus) abundance, estimated with a generalized linear model with significant mean sea‐level effects, shows a 36% decrease in annual puerulus supply since 1988. In addition, local Florida spawning stock biomass estimated from an age‐structured sequential population analysis decreased 57% since 1988. Puerulus abundance follows a highly correlated (R = 0.76) trend with a 12‐month delayed spawning stock abundance, which supports the contention that the Florida spawning population is a significant contributing factor to post‐larval recruitment in Florida. Residuals about the puerulus on spawning stock abundance function follow closely an interannual North Atlantic Oscillation Index signal. This residual effect is thought of as a secondary regional population effect on Florida puerulus recruitment. The Florida spiny lobster stock is exploited with no fishing mortality controls due to the Pan Caribbean recruitment concept adopted in Florida spiny lobster management. Therefore, the potential of recruitment overfishing exists if fishing mortality controls to protect local spawning stock abundance, such as catch quotas, are not introduced.     

Dynamic angling effort influences the value of minimum‐length limits to prevent recruitment overfishing

Recruitment overfishing occurs when stocks are fished to a level where recruitment declines proportionally with adult abundance. Although typically considered a commercial fishery problem, recruitment overfishing can also occur in freshwater recreational fisheries. This study developed an age‐structured model to determine if minimum‐length limits can prevent recruitment overfishing in black crappie, Pomoxis nigromaculatus (LeSueur), and walleye, Sander vitreus (Mitchill) fisheries considering angling effort response to changes in fish abundance. Simulations showed that minimum‐length limits prevented recruitment overfishing of black crappie and walleye, but larger minimum‐length limits were required if angler effort showed only weak responses to changes in fish abundance. Low angler‐effort responsiveness caused fishing mortality rates to remain high when stock abundance declined. By contrast, at high effort responsiveness, anglers left the fishery in response to stock declines and allowed stocks to recover. Angler effort for black crappie and walleye fisheries suggested that angler effort could be highly responsive for some fisheries and relatively stable for others, thereby increasing the risk of recruitment overfishing in real fisheries. Recruitment overfishing should be considered seriously in freshwater recreational fisheries, and more studies are needed to evaluate the responsiveness of angler effort to changes in fish abundance.