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1.

Context

Natural resource extraction is expanding towards increasingly remote areas. Meanwhile, the sustainability of most ecosystem service (ES) supplies, which form a great part of the livelihoods, health and economy of inhabitants in remote regions, is threatened by large-scale land-use changes.

Objective

The aim of the study was to assess the consequences of postponing ES conservation planning in remote regions prone to industrial development. More specially, is there a development threshold at which ES conservation may be imperilled.

Methods

We simulated eight stages of development using actual data on hydroelectricity generation, forestry and mining expansion. Aiming to protect ten wetland’s ES provision, we assembled referential conservation networks prior to development and several alternative conservation solutions after each stage of development. We compared these networks and assessed the impact of land-use changes on the basic properties of ES conservation networks.

Results

We found that conservation network alternative solutions were more costly in terms of additional area needed to achieve all targets: up to 16 % more so, compared to referential networks. Past a certain stage of development, alternative solutions were composed of a significantly greater proportion of small sites and, consequently, the networks became much more fragmented. Development also changed the spatial configuration of networks: up to 66 % of the sites included in alternative solutions were not selected in the referential networks.

Conclusions

According to current trends, future development will strongly compete with ES conservation. Our study emphasizes the importance of implementing ES conservation actions before development, even in remote regions.
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2.

Context

Spatial conservation prioritization (SCP) concerns, for example, identification of spatial priorities for biodiversity conservation or for impact avoidance in economic development. Software useable for SCP include Marxan, C-Plan and Zonation. SCP is often based on data about the distributions of biodiversity features (e.g., species, habitats), costs, threats, and/or ecosystem services (ES).

Objectives and methods

At simplest ES can be entered into a SCP analysis as independent supply maps, but this is not very satisfactory because connectivity requirements and consequent ideal spatial priority patterns may vary between ES. Therefore, we examine different ES and their connectivity requirements at the conceptual level.

Results

We find that the ideal spatial priority pattern for ES may differ in terms of: local supply area size and regional network requirements for the maintenance of ES provision, for flow between provision and demand, and with respect to the degree of dispersion that is needed for ES provision and access across different administrative regions. We then identify existing technical options in the Zonation software for dealing with such connectivity requirements of ES in SCP.

Conclusions

This work helps users of SCP to improve how ES are accounted for in analysis together with biodiversity and other considerations.
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3.

Context

Alaskan landscapes are changing due to climate change impacts. Maintaining or restoring landscape connectivity is a widely suggested climate change adaptation strategy because species are shifting their distributions to align with emerging conditions. Natural resource managers in Alaska have an opportunity to proactively design connected landscapes as infrastructure networks and economic development continue to increase in the state.

Objectives

We provide an example of strategic, multijurisdictional planning to maintain landscape connectivity at a large spatial scale.

Methods

We use geodiversity to model climate-resilient landscape linkages between conservation lands within and adjacent to a 59-million-acre planning area.

Results

The resulting landscape linkage design consists of as little as 1% of the planning area, but can connect over 64 million acres of conservation land allowing the Bureau of Land Management to leverage the current land designations to maximize the conservation value of the entire landscape.

Conclusions

Maintaining landscape connectivity is above and beyond the mandates and responsibilities of a single organization or land owner. Bridging institutions and partnerships, such as the Northwest Boreal Landscape Conservation Cooperative, can facilitate the coordination needed for this type of multi-jurisdictional planning effort. The opportunity to manage proactively, rather than waiting for system degradation and then responding reactively, should not be undervalued. The implementation of this work will serve as a model for other relatively intact systems and moreover showcases the potential of twenty-first century models of conservation and sustainability.
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4.

Context

The application of regional-level airborne lidar (light detection and ranging) data to characterize habitat patches and model habitat connectivity over large landscapes has not been well explored. Maintaining a connected network of habitat in the presence of anthropogenic disturbances is essential for regional-level conservation planning and the maintenance of biodiversity values.

Objectives

We quantified variation in connectivity following simulated changes in land cover and contrasted outcomes when different conservation priorities were emphasized.

Methods

First, we defined habitat patches using vegetation structural attributes identified via lidar. Second, habitat networks were constructed for different forest types and assessed using network connectivity metrics. And finally, land cover change scenarios were simulated using a series of habitat patch removals, representing the impact of implementing different spatial prioritization schemes.

Results

Networks for different forest structure types produced very different patch distributions. Conservation scenarios based on different schemes led to contrasting changes during land cover change simulations: the scheme prioritizing only habitat area resulted in immediate near-term losses in connectivity, whereas the scheme considering both habitat area and their spatial configurations maintained the overall connectivity most effectively. Adding climate constraints did not diminish or improve overall connectivity.

Conclusions

Both habitat area and habitat configuration should be considered in dynamic modeling of habitat connectivity under changing landscapes. This research provides a framework for integrating forest structure and cover attributes obtained from remote sensing data into network connectivity modeling, and may serve as a prototype for multi-criteria forest management and conservation planning.
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5.

Context

Conflict over land use is endemic to natural resource management given the limited availability of resources and multiple stakeholders’ interests, but there has been limited research to examine conflict from an integrative social-ecological perspective.

Objectives

We sought to determine how the potential for land use conflict—a social construct—was related (or not) to ecological systems of landscapes.

Methods

Using participatory mapping data from a regional case study in Australia, we identified the potential for land use conflict using a model that combines spatially-explicit place values with preferences for specific land uses related to development and conservation. Multiple proxies of biodiversity were used to evaluate the landscape’s ecological systems at ecosystems and species levels. Range maps were used to identify areas of high species diversity value using the conservation planning software Zonation.

Results

We spatially intersected conflict areas with landscape attributes and found the potential for conflict over conservation to be higher in coastal areas than inland areas, more likely to be located in areas with moderate vegetation cover, more concentrated in ecosystems classified as ‘No Concern’ with moderate to high native vegetation. Potential conflict over conservation was disproportionately higher in areas with higher species diversity derived from conservation modelling.

Conclusions

The social-ecological associations in conflict analysis can inform impact assessment of land use plans on biodiversity, assist development of effective approaches to reconcile conservation and other land uses, support conservation planning by identifying priorities for conflict negotiation and understanding underlying factors for conflict.
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6.

Context

Species are expected to shift their distributions in response to global environmental changes and additional protected areas are needed to encompass the corresponding changes in the distributions of their habitats. Conservation policies are likely to become obsolete unless they integrate the potential impacts of climate and land-use change on biodiversity.

Objectives

We identify conservation priority areas for current and future projected distributions of Iberian bird species. We then investigate the extent to which global change informed priority areas are: (i) covered by existing protected area networks (national protected areas and Natura 2000); (ii) threatened by agricultural or urban land-use changes.

Methods

We use outputs of species distributions models fitted with climatic data as inputs in spatial prioritization tools to identify conservation priority areas for 168 bird species. We use projections of land-use change to then discriminate between threatened and non-threatened priority areas.

Results

19% of the priority areas for birds are covered by national protected areas and 23% are covered by Natura 2000 sites. The spatial mismatch between protected area networks and priority areas for birds is projected to increase with climate change. But there are opportunities to improve the protection of birds under climate change, as half of the priority areas are currently neither protected nor in conflict with urban or agricultural land-uses.

Conclusions

We identify critical areas for bird conservation both under current and climate change conditions, and propose that they could guide the establishment of new conservation areas across the Iberian Peninsula complementing existing protected areas.
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7.

Context

Expansion of urban settlements has caused observed declines in ecosystem services (ES) globally, further stressing the need for informed urban development and policies. Incorporating ES concepts into the decision making process has been shown to support resilient and functional ecosystems. Coupling land change and ES models allows for insights into the impacts and anticipated trade-offs of specific policy decisions. The spatial configuration of urbanization likely influences the delivery and production of ES.

Objective

When considering multiple ES simultaneously, improving the production of one ecosystem service often results in the decrease in the provision of other ES, giving rise to trade-offs. We examine the impact of three urban growth scenarios on several ES to determine the degree to which spatial configuration of urbanization and the development of natural land cover impacts these services over 25 years.

Methods

We couple land change and ES models to examine impacts to carbon sequestration, surface water-run off, nitrogen and phosphorus export, organic farming and camping site suitability, to determine trade-offs among the six ES associated with each spatial configuration for western North Carolina.

Results

Consequences of urban configurations are dramatic, with degraded ES across all scenarios and substantial variation depending on urban pattern, revealing trade-offs. Counter-intuitive trade-offs between carbon sequestration and lands available for organic farming and camping were observed, suggesting that no configurations result in mutual benefits for all ES.

Conclusions

By understanding trade-offs associated with urban configurations, decision makers can identify ES critical to an area and promote configurations that enhance those.
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8.

Context

Quantifying variability in landscape-scale surface water connectivity can help improve our understanding of the multiple effects of wetlands on downstream waterways.

Objectives

We examined how wetland merging and the coalescence of wetlands with streams varied both spatially (among ecoregions) and interannually (from drought to deluge) across parts of the Prairie Pothole Region.

Methods

Wetland extent was derived over a time series (1990–2011) using Landsat imagery. Changes in landscape-scale connectivity, generated by the physical coalescence of wetlands with other surface water features, were quantified by fusing static wetland and stream datasets with Landsat-derived wetland extent maps, and related to multiple wetness indices. The usage of Landsat allows for decadal-scale analysis, but limits the types of surface water connections that can be detected.

Results

Wetland extent correlated positively with the merging of wetlands and wetlands with streams. Wetness conditions, as defined by drought indices and runoff, were positively correlated with wetland extent, but less consistently correlated with measures of surface water connectivity. The degree of wetland–wetland merging was found to depend less on total wetland area or density, and more on climate conditions, as well as the threshold for how wetland/upland was defined. In contrast, the merging of wetlands with streams was positively correlated with stream density, and inversely related to wetland density.

Conclusions

Characterizing the degree of surface water connectivity within the Prairie Pothole Region in North America requires consideration of (1) climate-driven variation in wetness conditions and (2) within-region variation in wetland and stream spatial arrangements.
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9.

Context

Land use changes have modified the extent and structure of native vegetation, resulting in fragmentation of native species habitat. Connectivity is increasingly seen as a requirement for effective conservation in these landscapes, but the question remains: ‘connectivity for which species?’.

Objective

The aim of this study was to develop and then apply a rapid, expert-based, dispersal guild approach where species are grouped on similar fine-scale dispersal behaviour (such as between scattered trees) and habitat characteristics.

Methods

Dispersal guilds were identified using clustering techniques to compare dispersal and habitat parameters elicited from experts. We modelled least-cost paths and corridors between patches and individual movement probabilities within these corridors for each of the dispersal guilds using Circuitscape. We demonstrate our approach with a case study in the Tasmanian Northern Midlands, Australia.

Results

The dispersal guild approach grouped the 12 species into five dispersal guilds. The connectivity modelling of those five guilds found that broadly dispersing species in this landscape, such as medium-sized carnivorous mammals, were unaffected by fragmentation while from the perspective of the three dispersal guilds made up of smaller mammals, the landscape appeared highly fragmented.

Conclusions

Our approach yields biologically defensible outputs that are broadly applicable, particularly for conservation planning where data and resources are limited. It is a useful first step in multi-species conservation planning which aims to identify those species most in need of conservation efforts.
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10.

Context

Landscape-scale studies of ecosystem services (ES) have increased, but few consider land-use history. Historical land use may be especially important in cultural landscapes, producing legacies that influence ecosystem structure, function, and biota that in turn affect ES supply.

Objectives

Our goal was to generate a conceptual framework for understanding when land-use legacies matter for ES supply in well-studied agricultural, urban, and exurban US landscapes.

Methods

We synthesized illustrative examples from published literature in which landscape legacies were demonstrated or are likely to influence ES.

Results

We suggest three related conditions in which land-use legacies are important for understanding current ES supply. (1) Intrinsically slow ecological processes govern ES supply, illustrated for soil-based and hydrologic services impaired by slowly processed pollutants. (2) Time lags between land-use change and ecosystem responses delay effects on ES supply, illustrated for biodiversity-based services that may experience an ES debt. (3) Threshold relationships exist, such that changes in ES are difficult to reverse, and legacy lock-in disconnects contemporary landscapes from ES supply, illustrated by hydrologic services. Mismatches between contemporary landscape patterns and mechanisms underpinning ES supply yield unexpected patterns of ES.

Conclusions

Today’s land-use decisions will generate tomorrow’s legacies, and ES will be affected if processes underpinning ES are affected by land-use legacies. Research priorities include understanding effects of urban abandonment, new contaminants, and interactions of land-use legacies and climate change. Improved understanding of historical effects will improve management of contemporary ES, and aid in decision-making as new challenges to sustaining cultural landscapes arise.
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11.

Context

Humans structure landscapes for the production of food, fibre and fuel, commonly resulting in declines of non-provisioning ecosystem services (ESs). Heterogeneous landscapes are capable of providing multiple ESs, and landscape configuration—spatial arrangement of land cover in the landscape—is expected to affect ES capacity. However, the majority of ES mapping studies have not accounted for landscape configuration.

Objectives

Our objective is to assess and quantify the relevance of configuration for mapping ES capacity. A review of empirical evidence for configuration effects on the capacity of ten ESs reveals that for four ESs configuration is relevant but typically ignored in ES quantification. For four ESs we quantify the relevance of configuration for mapping ESs using Scotland as a case study.

Methods

Each ES was quantified through modelling, respectively ignoring or accounting for configuration. The difference in ES capacity between the two ES models was determined at multiple spatial scales.

Results

Configuration affected the capacity of all four ESs mapped, particularly at the cell and watershed scale. At the scale of Scotland most local effects averaged out. Flood control and sediment retention responded strongest to configuration. ESs were affected by different aspects of configuration, thus requiring specific methods for mapping each ES.

Conclusions

Accounting for configuration is important for the assessment of certain ESs at the cell and watershed scale. Incorporating configuration in landscape management provides opportunities for spatial optimization of ES capacity, but the diverging response of ESs to configuration suggests that accounting for configuration involves trade-offs between ESs.
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12.

Context

Understanding how landscape patterns affect species diversity is of great importance in the fields of biogeography, landscape ecology and conservation planning, but despite the rapid advance in biodiversity analysis, investigations of spatial effects on biodiversity are still largely focused on species richness.

Objectives

We wanted to know if and how species richness and species composition are differentially driven by the spatial measures dominating studies in landscape ecology and biogeography. As both measures require the same limited presence/absence information, it is important to choose an appropriate diversity measure, as differing results could have important consequences for interpreting ecological processes.

Methods

We recorded plant occurrences on 112 islands in the Baltic archipelago. Species richness and composition were calculated for each island, and the explanatory power of island area and habitat heterogeneity, distance to mainland and structural connectivity at three different landscape sizes were examined.

Results

A total of 354 different plant species were recorded. The influence of landscape variables differed depending on which diversity measure was used. Island area and structural connectivity determined plant species richness, while species composition revealed a more complex pattern, being influenced by island area, habitat heterogeneity and structural connectivity.

Conclusions

Although both measures require the same basic input data, species composition can reveal more about the ecological processes affecting plant communities in fragmented landscapes than species richness alone. Therefore, we recommend that species community composition should be used as an additional standard measure of diversity for biogeography, landscape ecology and conservation planning.
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13.

Context

Species-specific models of landscape capability (LC) can inform landscape conservation design. Landscape capability is “the ability of the landscape to provide the environment […] and the local resources […] needed for survival and reproduction […] in sufficient quantity, quality and accessibility to meet the life history requirements of individuals and local populations.” Landscape capability incorporates species’ life histories, ecologies, and distributions to model habitat for current and future landscapes and climates as a proactive strategy for conservation planning.

Objectives

We tested the ability of a set of LC models to explain variation in point occupancy and abundance for seven bird species representative of spruce-fir, mixed conifer-hardwood, and riparian and wooded wetland macrohabitats.

Methods

We compiled point count data sets used for biological inventory, species monitoring, and field studies across the northeastern United States to create an independent validation data set. Our validation explicitly accounted for underestimation in validation data using joint distance and time removal sampling.

Results

Blackpoll warbler (Setophaga striata), wood thrush (Hylocichla mustelina), and Louisiana (Parkesia motacilla) and northern waterthrush (P. noveboracensis) models were validated as predicting variation in abundance, although this varied from not biologically meaningful (1%) to strongly meaningful (59%). We verified all seven species models [including ovenbird (Seiurus aurocapilla), blackburnian (Setophaga fusca) and cerulean warbler (Setophaga cerulea)], as all were positively related to occupancy data.

Conclusions

LC models represent a useful tool for conservation planning owing to their predictive ability over a regional extent. As improved remote-sensed data become available, LC layers are updated, which will improve predictions.
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14.

Context

Human driven land-use and land-cover change (LULC) is considered to be among the greatest ecological pressures in mountain regions. Over the past century, across the European Alps, extensive LULC changes have been observed, affecting ecosystem goods and services (ESs).

Objectives

For eight case study sites across the Alpine arc we aimed to provide a spatiotemporal explicit assessment of the impacts of LULC dynamics on ES provision and interactions, including cultivated crops, plant material, climate regulation, soil erosion control and aesthetics.

Methods

We quantified ES provision in biophysical terms at four time periods (1850, 1955, 1985, 2005) using spatially explicit LULC based assessment models. ES interactions were identified by statistically analyzing the spatiotemporal pattern among ES capacities.

Results

Over the past century forested areas have increased mainly at the cost of grasslands, while on easily accessible sites and fertile valley floors agricultural intensification occurred. ES provision shifted between 1850 and 2005, from a predominance of production ESs in 1850 to a landscape characterized by regulating ESs in 2005. Spatiotemporal analyses of ES interactions revealed trade-offs between regulating and cultural ESs and within the provisioning ES bundle and allowed to derive three different ES trajectories: regions developing from single to multifunctional sites in terms of service provision, sites reducing their service capacities and sites with rather stationary patterns over broad time periods.

Conclusions

We demonstrated that ES capacities in complex agro-ecological mountain regions are highly sensitive to long-term landscape dynamics. We conclude that assessing ES capacities and interactions in an explicitly spatiotemporal manner can help to guide evidence-based environmental measures.
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15.

Context

Habitat loss and habitat fragmentation negatively affect amphibian populations. Roads impact amphibian species through barrier effects and traffic mortality. The landscape variable ‘accessible habitat’ considers the combined effects of habitat loss and roads on populations.

Objectives

The aim was to test whether accessible habitat was a better predictor of amphibian species richness than separate measures of road effects and habitat loss. I assessed how accessible habitat and local habitat variables determine species richness and community composition.

Methods

Frog and tadpole surveys were conducted at 52 wetlands in a peri-urban area of eastern Australia. Accessible habitat was delineated using a highway. Regressions were used to examine relationships between species richness and eleven landscape and local habitat variables. Redundancy analysis was used to examine relationships between community composition and accessible habitat and local habitat variables.

Results

Best-ranked models of species richness included both landscape and local habitat variables. There were positive relationships between species richness and accessible habitat and distance to the highway, and uncertain relationships with proportion cover of native vegetation and road density. There were negative relationships between species richness and concreted wetlands and wetland electrical conductivity. Four species were positively associated with accessible habitat, whereas all species were negatively associated with wetland type.

Conclusions

Barrier effects caused by the highway and habitat loss have negatively affected the amphibian community. Local habitat variables had strong relationships with species richness and community composition, highlighting the importance of both availability and quality of habitat for amphibian conservation near major roads.
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16.

Context

Montados are dynamic agroforestry systems of southern Portugal, with high economic and ecological values. Changes in land use and cover have important implications for landscape-level biodiversity and its conservation.

Objectives

Our objectives were to evaluate the biodiversity values and trends in a montado system in the Alentejo, Portugal so as to inform landscape level conservation approaches. In doing so, we aimed to develop a replicable and robust approach drawing together field observation, expert opinion, and remote sensing to produce predictions relevant to land management planning.

Methods

Field sampling and subsequent analysis of data on the birds, butterflies and plants in eight distinct land covers allowed the identification of two principal habitat groupings of importance: ‘montado mosaic’ and ‘shrubland’. Morphological spatial pattern analysis was performed on Landsat-derived GIS habitat layers for 1984 and 2009, generating maps and statistics for change in the different landscape functional classes. In addition, we demonstrated how the modelling of ecotones between open and closed biomes can identify the preferred hunting grounds of the threatened Iberian lynx and black vulture, flagship species whose conservation provides benefits to the area’s wider biodiversity values.

Results

Total and core area of montado mosaics and shrubland increased over the 25 year period, whilst the amount of habitat connectivity declined in the case of shrubland. Considerable local variation in these trends highlighted targetable areas for conservation action (e.g. through agri-environment spending).

Conclusions

A rapid and robust approach was demonstrated, with potentially wider utility for biodiversity assessment and planning.
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17.

Context

The provision of multiple ecosystem services (ES) within a landscape is commonly referred to as landscape multifunctionality. Modifying landscapes to increase multifunctionality and reduce trade-offs with concurrent services bears the potential to enhance sustainability in human-dominated landscapes. Assessing landscape multifunctionality is thus crucial for land management and planning, but lack of a clear definition and operationalization of multifunctionality impedes comparisons of different study results.

Objectives

We want to address how elements of the study design affect results of multifunctionality assessments. Furthermore, we want to quantify future multifunctionality in the European Union (EU) and indicate the role of land use change and land use diversity on multifunctionality.

Methods

We analyzed diverging scenarios depicting land use change in the EU between 2000 and 2040 for their effects on landscape multifunctionality. We tested different multifunctionality indicators at various spatial scales based on the modelling of 12 ES and biodiversity indicators.

Results

Particularly the analysis scale determines the interpretation of landscape multifunctionality. Coldspots identified by different indicators are in higher agreement than hotspots. We could not confirm links between land use diversity and landscape multifunctionality. While, at EU scale, multifunctionality slightly increases in future scenarios, agricultural intensification and (peri-)urban growth pose large threats to multifunctional landscapes.

Conclusions

The choice of indicator and analysis scale strongly determine possible interpretations of the results. Rather than focusing on the impacts of land use change on multifunctionality, it is recommended to base land use policy on the impacts of location-specific change on ES supply and demands.
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18.

Context

Management of wintering waterfowl in North America requires adaptability because constant landscape and environmental change challenges existing management strategies regarding waterfowl habitat use at large spatial scales. Migratory waterfowl including mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) use the lower Mississippi Alluvial Valley (MAV) for wintering habitat, making this an important area of emphasis for improving wetland conservation strategies, while enhancing the understanding of landscape-use patterns.

Objectives

We used aerial survey data collected in the Arkansas portion of the MAV (ARMAV) to explain the abundance and distribution of mallards in relation to variable landscape conditions.

Methods

We used two-stage, hierarchical spatio-temporal models with a random spatial effect to identify covariates related to changes in mallard abundance and distribution within and among years.

Results

We found distinct spatio-temporal patterns existed for mallard distributions across the ARMAV and these distributions are dependent on the surrounding landscape structure and changing environmental conditions. Models performing best indicated seasonal surface water extent, rice field, wetland and fallow (uncultivated) fields positively influenced mallard presence. Rice fields, surface water and weather were found to influence mallard abundance. Additionally, the results suggest weather and changing surface water affects mallard presence and abundance throughout the winter.

Conclusions

Using novel datasets to identify which environmental factors drive changes in regional wildlife distribution and abundance can improve management by providing managers additional information to manage land over landscapes spanning private and public lands. We suggest our analytical approach may be informative in other areas and for other wildlife species.
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19.

Context

Understanding habitat selection can be challenging for species surviving in small populations, but is needed for landscape-scale conservation planning.

Objectives

We assessed how European bison (Bison bonasus) habitat selection, and particularly forest use, varies across subpopulations and spatial scales.

Methods

We gathered the most comprehensive European bison occurrence dataset to date, from five free-ranging herds in Poland. We compared these data to a high-resolution forest map and modelled the influence of environmental and human-pressure variables on habitat selection.

Results

Around 65% of European bison occurrences were in forests, with cows showing a slightly higher forest association than bulls. Forest association did not change markedly across spatial scales, yet differed strongly among herds. Modelling European bison habitat suitability confirmed forest preference, but also showed strong differences in habitat selection among herds. Some herds used open areas heavily and actively selected for them. Similarly, human-pressure variables were important in all herds, but some herds avoided human-dominated areas more than others.

Conclusions

Assessing European bison habitat across multiple herds revealed a more generalist habitat use pattern than when studying individual herds only. Our results highlight that conflicts with land use and people could be substantial if bison are released in human-dominated landscapes. Future restoration efforts should target areas with low road and human population density, regardless of the degree of forest cover. More broadly, our study highlights the importance of considering multiple subpopulations and spatial scales in conservation planning.
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20.

Context

Mosquito-borne diseases in the United States are notorious for their seemingly erratic temporal and spatial outbreak patterns in humans. Identifying linkages between fine-scale phenomenon and macroscale outbreak patterns can improve the understanding of these complex socio–ecological systems.

Objectives

Using West Nile virus (WNV) as a model system, we examine whether fine-scale wetland characteristics—wetland size, connectivity, and inundation regime—have an important effect on macroscale human disease outbreak in the northeastern and midwestern United States.

Methods

We take a spatially explicit GIS-based approach, derive new macroscale wetland metrics based on fine-scale wetland characteristics, and use county-level annual human WNV incidence data over 11 years to evaluate linkages between the fine and macroscales (1.6 million km2).

Results

In regions dominated by the Culex tarsalis WNV vector, U.S. counties with a small average wetland size had more than 100 % higher human WNV incidence than counties with a large average wetland size. In regions dominated by the Cx. pipiens and Cx. restuans vectors, a low proportional area of connected wetland was associated with at least 50 % higher human WNV incidence than a high proportional area of connected wetland. Finally, Cx. tarsalis-dominated counties with a high proportional area of semi-permanent wetland that were experiencing drought conditions had over 300 % higher annual WNV incidence than drought-affected counties with a low proportional area of semi-permanent wetland.

Conclusions

Our results suggest that phenomena occurring at the individual wetland scale may aggregate to influence macroscale human WNV outbreak patterns and may be mediated by the interplay of other factors such as vector species-specific traits and climate.
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