The changing landscape of wildfire: burn pattern trends and implications for California’s yellow pine and mixed conifer forests

Purpose

Wildfire spatial patterns drive ecological processes including vegetation succession and wildlife community dynamics. Such patterns may be changing due to fire suppression policies and climate change, making characterization of trends in post-fire mosaics important for understanding and managing fire-prone ecosystems.

Methods

For wildfires in California’s yellow pine and mixed-conifer forests, spatial pattern trends of two components of the post-fire severity matrix were assessed for 1984–2015: (1) unchanged or very low-severity and (2) high-severity, which represent remnant forest and stand-replacing fire, respectively. Trends were evaluated for metrics of total and proportional burned area, shape complexity, aggregation, and core area. Additionally, comparisons were made between management units where fire suppression is commonly practiced and those with a history of managing wildfire for ecological/resource benefits.

Results

Unchanged or very low-severity area per fire decreased proportionally through time, and became increasingly fragmented. High-severity area and core area increased on average across most of California, with the high-severity component also becoming simpler in shape in the Sierra Nevada. Compared to suppression units, managed wildfire units lack an increase in high-severity area, have less aggregated post-fire mosaics, and more high-severity spatial complexity.

Conclusions

Documented changes in severity patterns have cascading ecological effects including increased vegetation type conversion risk, habitat availability shifts, and remnant forest fragmentation. These changes likely benefit early-seral-associated species at the expense of mature closed-canopy forest-associated species. Managed wildfire appears to moderate some effects of fire suppression, and may help buy time for ecosystems and managers to respond to a changing climate.

     

Anuran responses to spatial patterns of agricultural landscapes in Argentina

Context

Amphibians are declining worldwide and land use change to agriculture is recognized as a leading cause. Argentina is undergoing an agriculturalization process with rapid changes in landscape structure.

Objectives

We evaluated anuran response to landscape composition and configuration in two landscapes of east-central Argentina with different degrees of agriculturalization. We identified sensitive species and evaluated landscape influence on communities and individual species at two spatial scales.

Methods

We compared anuran richness, frequency of occurrence, and activity between landscapes using call surveys data from 120 sampling points from 2007 to 2009. We evaluated anuran responses to landscape structure variables estimated within 250 and 500-m radius buffers using canonical correspondence analysis and multimodel inference from a set of candidate models.

Results

Anuran richness was lower in the landscape with greater level of agriculturalization with reduced amount of forest cover and stream length. This pattern was driven by the lower occurrence and calling activity of seven out of the sixteen recorded species. Four species responded positively to the amount of forest cover and stream habitat. Three species responded positively to forest cohesion and negatively to rural housing. Two responded negatively to crop area and diversity of cover classes.

Conclusions

Anurans within agricultural landscapes of east-central Argentina are responding to landscape structure. Responses varied depending on species and study scale. Life-history traits contribute to responses differences. Our study offers a better understanding of landscape effects on anurans and can be used for land management in other areas experiencing a similar agriculturalization process.

     

Getting to the root of the matter: landscape implications of plant-fungal interactions for tree migration in Alaska

Context

Forecasting the expansion of forest into Alaska tundra is critical to predicting regional ecosystem services, including climate feedbacks such as carbon storage. Controls over seedling establishment govern forest development and migration potential. Ectomycorrhizal fungi (EMF), obligate symbionts of all Alaskan tree species, are particularly important to seedling establishment, yet their significance to landscape vegetation change is largely unknown.

Objective

We used ALFRESCO, a landscape model of wildfire and vegetation dynamics, to explore whether EMF inoculum potential influences patterns of tundra afforestation and associated flammability.

Methods

Using two downscaled CMIP3 general circulation models (ECHAM5 and CCCMA) and a mid-range emissions scenario (A1B) at a 1 km² resolution, we compared simulated tundra afforestation rates and flammability from four parameterizations of EMF effects on seedling establishment and growth from 2000 to 2100.

Results

Modeling predicted an 8.8–18.2 % increase in forest cover from 2000 to 2100. Simulations that explicitly represented landscape variability in EMF inoculum potential showed a reduced percent change afforestation of up to a 2.8 % due to low inoculum potential limiting seedling growth. This reduction limited fuel availability and thus, cumulative area burned. Regardless of inclusion of EMF effects in simulations, landscape flammability was lower for simulations driven by the wetter and cooler CCCMA model than the warmer and drier ECHAM5 model, while tundra afforestation was greater.

Conclusions

Results suggest abiotic factors are the primary driver of tree migration. Simulations including EMF effects, a biotic factor, yielded more conservative estimates of land cover change across Alaska that better-matched empirical estimates from the previous century.

     

Collaborative scenario modeling reveals potential advantages of blending strategies to achieve conservation goals in a working forest landscape

Context

Broad-scale land conservation and management often involve applying multiple strategies in a single landscape. However, the potential outcomes of such arrangements remain difficult to evaluate given the interactions of ecosystem dynamics, resource extraction, and natural disturbances. The costs and potential risks of implementing these strategies make robust evaluation critical.

Objectives

We used collaborative scenario modeling to compare the potential outcomes of alternative management strategies in the Two Hearted River watershed in Michigan’s Upper Peninsula to answer key questions: Which management strategies best achieve conservation goals of maintaining landscape spatial heterogeneity and conserving mature forests and wetlands? And how does an increase in wildfire and windthrow disturbances influence these outcomes?

Methods

Scenarios were modeled using the VDDT/TELSA state-and-transition modeling suite, and resulting land cover maps were analyzed using ArcGIS, FRAGSTATS, and R statistical software.

Results

Results indicate that blending conservation strategies, such as single-ownership forest reserves and working forest conservation easements in targeted areas of the landscape, may better achieve these goals than applying a single strategy across the same area. However, strategies that best achieve these conservation goals may increase the sensitivity of the landscape to changes in wildfire and windthrow disturbance regimes.

Conclusions

These results inform decision-making about which conservation strategy or combination of strategies to apply in specific locations on the landscape to achieve optimum conservation outcomes, how to best utilize scarce financial resources, and how to reduce the financial and ecological risks associated with the application of innovative strategies in an uncertain future.

     

Modeling and mapping forest diversity in the boreal forest of interior Alaska

Context

Patterns of forest diversity are less well known in the boreal forest of interior Alaska than in most ecosystems of North America. Proactive forest planning requires spatially accurate information about forest diversity. Modeling is a cost-efficient way of predicting key forest diversity measures as a function of human and environmental factors.

Objectives

Investigate and predict the patterns and processes in tree species and tree size-class diversity within the boreal forest of Alaska for a first mapped quantitative baseline.

Methods

For the boreal forest of Alaska, USA, we employed Random Forest Analysis (machine learning) and the Boruta algorithm in R to predict tree species and tree size-class diversity for the entire region using a combination of forest inventory data and a suite of 30 predictors from public open-access data archives that included climatic, distance, and topographic variables. We developed prediction maps in a GIS for the current levels (Year 2012) of tree size-class and species diversity.

Results

The method employed here yielded good accuracy for the huge Alaskan landscape despite the exclusion of spectral reflectance data. It’s the first quantified GIS prediction baseline. The results indicate that the geographic pattern of tree species diversity differs from the pattern of tree size-class diversity across this forest type.

Conclusions

The results suggest that human factors combined with topographical factors had a large impact on predicting the patterns of diversity in the boreal forest of interior Alaska.

     

Drivers and trends in landscape patterns of stand-replacing fire in forests of the US Northern Rocky Mountains (1984–2010)

Context

Resilience in fire-prone forests is strongly affected by landscape burn-severity patterns, in part by governing propagule availability around stand-replacing patches in which all or most vegetation is killed. However, little is known about drivers of landscape patterns of stand-replacing fire, or whether such patterns are changing during an era of increased wildfire activity.

Objectives

(a) Identify key direct/indirect drivers of landscape patterns of stand-replacing fire (e.g., size, shape of patches), (b) test for temporal trends in these patterns, and (c) anticipate thresholds beyond which landscape patterns of burn severity may change fundamentally.

Methods

We applied structural equation modeling to satellite burn-severity maps of fires in the US Northern Rocky Mountains (1984–2010) to test for direct and indirect (via influence on fire size and proportion stand-replacing) effects of climate/weather, vegetation, and topography on landscape patterns of stand-replacing fire. We also tested for temporal trends in landscape patterns.

Results

Landscape patterns of stand-replacing fire were strongly controlled by fire size and proportion stand-replacing, which were, in turn, controlled by climate/weather and vegetation/topography, respectively. From 1984 to 2010, the proportion of stand-replacing fire within burn perimeters increased from 0.22 to 0.27. Trends for other landscape metrics were not significant, but may respond to further increases proportion stand-replacing fire.

Conclusions

Fires from 1984 to 2010 exhibited tremendous heterogeneity in landscape patterns of stand-replacing fire, likely promoting resilience in burned areas. If trends continue on the current trajectory, however, fires may produce larger and simpler shaped patches of stand-replacing fire with more burned area far from seed sources.

     

Recovery dynamics and climate change effects to future New England forests

Context

Forests throughout eastern North America continue to recover from broad-scale intensive land use that peaked in the nineteenth century. These forests provide essential goods and services at local to global scales. It is uncertain how recovery dynamics, the processes by which forests respond to past forest land use, will continue to influence future forest conditions. Climate change compounds this uncertainty.

Objectives

We explored how continued forest recovery dynamics affect forest biomass and species composition and how climate change may alter this trajectory.

Methods

Using a spatially explicit landscape simulation model incorporating an ecophysiological model, we simulated forest processes in New England from 2010 to 2110. We compared forest biomass and composition from simulations that used a continuation of the current climate to those from four separate global circulation models forced by a high emission scenario (RCP 8.5).

Results

Simulated forest change in New England was driven by continued recovery dynamics; without the influence of climate change forests accumulated 34 % more biomass and succeed to more shade tolerant species; Climate change resulted in 82 % more biomass but just nominal shifts in community composition. Most tree species increased AGB under climate change.

Conclusions

Continued recovery dynamics will have larger impacts than climate change on forest composition in New England. The large increases in biomass simulated under all climate scenarios suggest that climate regulation provided by the eastern forest carbon sink has potential to continue for at least a century.

     

Occupancy pattern of a long-horned beetle in a variegated forest landscape: linkages between tree quality and forest cover across spatial scales

Context

Interactions between landscape-scale processes and fine-grained habitat heterogeneity are usually invoked to explain species occupancy in fragmented landscapes. In variegated landscapes, however, organisms face continuous variation in micro-habitat features, which makes necessary to consider ecologically meaningful estimates of habitat quality at different spatial scales.

Objectives

We evaluated the spatial scales at which forest cover and tree quality make the greatest contribution to the occupancy of the long-horned beetle Microplophorus magellanicus (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae) in a variegated forest landscape.

Methods

We used averaged data of tree quality (as derived from remote sensing estimates of the decay stage of single trees) and spatially independent pheromone-baited traps to model the occurrence probability as a function of multiple cross-scale combinations between forest cover and tree quality (with scales ranging between 50 and 400 m).

Results

Model support and performance increased monotonically with the increasing scale at which tree quality was measured. Forest cover was not significant, and did not exhibit scale-specific effects on the occurrence probability of M. magellanicus. The interactive effect between tree quality and forest cover was stronger than the independent (additive) effects of tree quality and particularly forest cover. Significant interactions included tree quality measured at spatial scales ≥200 m, but cross-scale interactions occurred only in four of the seven best-supported models.

Conclusions

M. magellanicus respond to the high-quality trees available in the landscape rather than to the amount of forest per se. Conservation of viable metapopulations of M. magellanicus should consider the quality of trees at spatial scales >200 m.

     

The past and future of modeling forest dynamics: from growth and yield curves to forest landscape models

Context

Quantitative models of forest dynamics have followed a progression toward methods with increased detail, complexity, and spatial extent.

Objectives

We highlight milestones in the development of forest dynamics models and identify future research and application opportunities.

Methods

We reviewed milestones in the evolution of forest dynamics models from the 1930s to the present with emphasis on forest growth and yield models and forest landscape models We combined past trends with emerging issues to identify future needs.

Results

Historically, capacity to model forest dynamics at tree, stand, and landscape scales was constrained by available data for model calibration and validation; computing capacity; model applicability to real-world problems; and ability to integrate biological, social, and economic drivers of change. As computing and data resources improved, a new class of spatially explicit forest landscape models emerged.

Conclusions

We are at a point of great opportunity in development and application of forest dynamics models. Past limitations in computing capacity and in data suitable for model calibration or evaluation are becoming less restrictive. Forest landscape models, in particular, are ready to transition to a central role supporting forest management, planning, and policy decisions.

Recommendations

Transitioning forest landscape models to a central role in applied decision making will require greater attention to evaluating performance; building application support staffs; expanding the included drivers of change, and incorporating metrics for social and economic inputs and outputs.

     

Spatial determinants of Atlantic Forest loss and recovery in Brazil

Context

Despite continued forest cover losses in many parts of the world, Atlantic Forest, one of the largest of the Americas, is increasing in some locations. Economic factors are suggested as causes of forest gain, while enforcement has reduced deforestation.

Objectives

We examine three aspects of this issue: the relative importance of biophysical versus anthropogenic factors in driving forest dynamics; role of forest mean patch age influencing areas targeted for losses; and what future forest mean patch age mosaic we can expect (more forest cover and full forest maturity?).

Methods

Three land cover maps from 1990, 2000 and 2010, were used in the study. We selected six biophysical and six anthropogenic spatial determinants to analyze by means of weights of evidence, using Dinamica software.

Results

Results show that forest regrowth is influenced by multiple factors, working in synergy. Biophysical variables are related to forest gain while anthropogenic are associated with loss. Clear patterns of regrowth on pasture and sugarcane plantations occurred, especially near rivers and forest patches, on steeper slopes and with sufficient rainfall. Forest loss has targeted both older and newer forests. Future projections reveal forest gain in a slow pace, followed by specific ecosystem service losses, due to continuous trends of older mature forest loss.

Conclusions

Regrowth is linked to land abandonment, and to neighboring environmental conditions. It is important to question which mechanisms will guarantee and potentiate new regrowth, thus contributing to landscape restoration and reestablishment of ecosystem services in the Atlantic Forest.

     

Soundscapes reveal disturbance impacts: biophonic response to wildfire in the Sonoran Desert Sky Islands

Context

While remote sensing imagery is effective for quantifying land cover changes across large areas, its utility for directly assessing the response of animals to disturbance is limited. Soundscapes approaches—the recording and analysis of sounds in a landscape—could address this shortcoming.

Objectives

In 2011, a massive wildfire named “the Horseshoe 2 Burn” occurred in the Chiricahua National Monument, Arizona, USA. We evaluated the impact of this wildfire on acoustic activity of animal communities.

Methods

In 2013, soundscape recordings were collected over 9 months in 12 burned and 12 non-burned sites in four ecological systems. The seasonal and diel biological acoustic activity were described using the “Bioacoustic Index”, a detailed aural analysis of sound sources, and a new tool called “Sonic Timelapse Builder” (STLB).

Results

Seasonal biophony phenology showed a diurnal peak in June and a nocturnal peak in October in all ecological systems. On June mornings, acoustic activity was lower at burned than at non-burned sites in three of four ecological systems, due to a decreased abundance of cicadas directly impacted by the death of trees. Aural analyses revealed that 55% of recordings from non-burned sites contained insect sounds compared to 18% from burned sites. On October nights, orthopteran activity was more prevalent at some burned sites, possibly due to post-fire emergence of herbaceous.

Conclusions

Soundscape approaches can help address long-term conservation issues involving the responses of animal communities to wildfire. Acoustic methods can serve as a valuable complement to remote sensing for disturbance-based landscape management.

     

Effects of land use legacies and habitat fragmentation on salamander abundance

Context

Landscape modification is an important driver of biodiversity declines, yet we lack insight into how ongoing landscape change and legacies of historical land use together shape biodiversity.

Objectives

We examined how a history of agricultural land use and current forest fragmentation influence the abundance of red-backed salamanders (Plethodon cinereus). We hypothesized that historical agriculture and fragmentation cause changes in habitat quality and landscape structure that limit abundance.

Methods

We measured salamander abundance at 95 forested sites in New York, USA, and we determined whether sites were agricultural fields within the last five decades. We used a structural equation model to estimate relationships between historical agriculture and salamander abundance mediated by changes in forest vegetation, microclimate, and landscape structure.

Results

Historical agriculture affected salamander abundance by altering forest vegetation at a local scale and forest cover at a landscape scale. Abundance was lowest at post-agricultural sites with low woody vegetation, leaf litter depth, and canopy cover. Post-agricultural sites had limited forest cover in the surrounding landscape historically, and salamander abundance was positively related to historical forest cover, suggesting that connectivity to source populations affects colonization of regenerating forests. Abundance was also negatively related to current forest fragmentation.

Conclusions

Historical land use can have legacy effects on animal abundance on par with effects of ongoing landscape change. We showed that associations between animal abundance and historical land use can be driven by altered site conditions and surrounding habitat area, indicating that restoration efforts should consider local site conditions and landscape context.

     

Choose your neighborhood wisely: implications of subsampling and autocorrelation structure in simultaneous autoregression models for landscape ecology

Context

Large datasets that exhibit residual spatial autocorrelation are common in landscape ecology, introducing issues with model inference. Computationally intensive statistical techniques such as simultaneous autoregression (SAR) are used to provide credible inference, yet landscape studies make choices about autocorrelation structure and data reduction techniques without adequate understanding of the consequences for model estimation and inference.

Objectives

Our goal is to understand the effects of misspecification of neighborhood size, subsampling, and data partitioning on SAR estimation and inference.

Methods

We use remotely sensed burn severity for a large wildfire in north-central Washington State as a case study. First we estimate SAR for remotely sensed burn severity data at multiple subsampling intensities, data partitions, and neighborhood distances. Second, we simulate landscape burn severity data with SAR errors and calculate type I error rates for SAR estimated at the simulation neighborhood distance, and at misspecified neighborhood distances.

Results

Subsampling and misspecification of the neighborhood result in spurious inference and modified coefficient estimates. Type I error rates are close to the specified α-level when the model is estimated at both the simulation neighborhood and the distance that minimizes AIC.

Conclusions

By evaluating the effectiveness of pre-burn fuel reduction treatments on subsequent wildfire burn severity, we demonstrate that misspecification of the neighborhood distance and subsampling the data compromises inference and estimation. Using AIC to choose the neighborhood distance provides type I error rates near the stated α-level in simulated data.

     

Deciduous trees increase bat diversity at stand and landscape scales in mosaic pine plantations

Context

In heterogeneous landscapes, habitat complementation is a key process underlying the distribution of mobile species able to exploit non-substitutable resources over large home ranges. For instance, insectivorous bats need to forage in a diversity of habitat patches offering varied compositions and structures within forest landscape mosaics to fulfill their life cycle requirements.

Objectives

We aimed at analyzing the effects of forest structure and composition measured at the stand and landscape scales on bat species richness, abundance and community composition in pine plantation forests of south-western France.

Methods

We sampled bat communities at different periods of the summer season using automatic ultrasound recorders along a tree composition gradient from pine monocultures to pure oak stands. We analyzed bat species activity (as a proxy for bat abundance) and species richness with linear mixed models. Distance-based constrained ordinations were used to partition the spatio-temporal variation in bat communities.

Results

Deciduous tree cover increased bat activity and modified community composition at both stand and landscape scales. Changes in bat communities were mostly driven by landscape-scale variables while bat activity responded more to stand-scale predictors.

Conclusions

The maintenance of deciduous trees at both stand and landscape scales is likely critical for bat communities living in fast-growing conifer plantations, by increasing the availability and diversity of prey and roosting sites. Our study suggests that bats respond to forest composition at both stand and landscape scales in mosaic plantation landscapes, mainly through a resource complementation process.

     

Matrix transformation alters species-area relationships in fragmented coastal forests

Context

Ecological theory suggests that large habitat fragments should harbour more species than small fragments. However, this may depend on the surrounding matrix. Matrices in fragmented landscapes may either amplify or reduce area effects, which could influence predicted extinctions based on species-area relationships (SARs).

Objective

To determine the influence of matrix type on SARs.

Methods

We surveyed birds within 59 coastal forest fragments in two matrix types, anthropogenic (South Africa) and natural (Mozambique). We classified species as forest specialists or habitat generalists and fitted species-area models to compare how SAR slopes differed among matrix types. We also calculated nestedness and evenness to determine if these varied among matrix type and used logistic regressions to identify species-specific responses to matrix type.

Results

For habitat generalists, SARs were weak within both matrices, while for forest specialists it was strong in the anthropogenic but weak in the natural matrix. In the former, the SAR was similar to those recorded for real islands within archipelagos. Forest specialist assemblages were nested by area within anthropogenic, but not natural matrices. Matrix type did not influence evenness. Area only affected the occurrence of one species when the matrix was natural, compared to 11 species when it was anthropogenic.

Conclusions

Forest specialist bird species conformed to island biogeographic predictions of species loss in forest fragments embedded in anthropogenic, but not natural matrices. Extinctions from small forest fragments might be prevented by conserving natural- or restoring anthropogenic matrices, as well as by increasing forest area.

     

Forest recovery since 1860 in a Mediterranean region: drivers and implications for land use and land cover spatial distribution

Context

Land use and land cover (LULC) change is a major part of environmental change. Understanding its long-term causes is a major issue in landscape ecology.

Objectives

Our aim was to characterise LULC transitions since 1860 and assess the respective and changing effects of biophysical and socioeconomic drivers on forest, arable land and pasture in 1860, 1958 and 2010, and of biophysical, socioeconomic and distance from pre-existing forest on forest recovery for the two time intervals.

Methods

We assessed LULC transitions by superimposing 1860, 1958 and 2010 LULCs using a regular grid of 1 × 1 km points, in a French Mediterranean landscape (195,413 ha). We tested the effects of drivers using logistic regressions, and quantified pure and joint effects by deviance partitioning.

Results

Over the whole period, the three main LULCs were spatially structured according to land accessibility and soil productivity. LULC was driven more by socioeconomic than biophysical drivers in 1860, but the pattern was reversed in 2010. A widespread forest recovery mainly occurred on steeper slopes, far from houses and close to pre-existing forest, due to traditional practice abandonment. Forest recovery was better explained by biophysical than by socioeconomic drivers and was more dependent on distance from pre-existing forest between 1958 and 2010.

Conclusions

Our results showed a shift in drivers of LULC and forest recovery over the last 150 years. Contrary to temperate regions, the set-aside of agricultural practices on difficult land has strengthened the link between biophysical drivers and LULC distribution over the last 150 years.

     

Bending the carbon curve: fire management for carbon resilience under climate change

Context

Forest landscapes are increasingly managed for fire resilience, particularly in the western US which has recently experienced drought and widespread, high-severity wildfires. Fuel reduction treatments have been effective where fires coincide with treated areas. Fuel treatments also have the potential to reduce drought-mortality if tree density is uncharacteristically high, and to increase long-term carbon storage by reducing high-severity fire probability.

Objective

Assess whether fuel treatments reduce fire intensity and spread and increase carbon storage under climate change.

Methods

We used a simulation modeling approach that couples a landscape model of forest disturbance and succession with an ecosystem model of carbon dynamics (Century), to quantify the interacting effects of climate change, fuel treatments and wildfire for carbon storage potential in a mixed-conifer forest in the western USA.

Results

Our results suggest that fuel treatments have the potential to ‘bend the C curve’, maintaining carbon resilience despite climate change and climate-related changes to the fire regime. Simulated fuel treatments resulted in reduced fire spread and severity. There was partial compensation of C lost during fuel treatments with increased growth of residual stock due to greater available soil water, as well as a shift in species composition to more drought- and fire-tolerant Pinus jeffreyi at the expense of shade-tolerant, fire-susceptible Abies concolor.

Conclusions

Forest resilience to global change can be achieved through management that reduces drought stress and supports the establishment and dominance of tree species that are more fire- and drought-resistant, however, achieving a net C gain from fuel treatments may take decades.

     

Multi-temporal trajectories of landscape change explain forest biodiversity in urbanizing ecosystems

Context

Forest loss and fragmentation negatively affect biodiversity. However, disturbances in forest canopy resulting from repeated deforestation and reforestation are also likely important drivers of biodiversity, but are overlooked when forest cover change is assessed using a single time interval.

Objectives

We investigated two questions at the nexus of plant diversity and forest cover change dynamics: (1) Do multitemporal forest cover change trajectories explain patterns of plant diversity better than a simple measure of overall forest change? (2) Are specific types of forest cover change trajectories associated with significantly higher or lower levels of diversity?

Methods

We sampled plant biodiversity in forests spanning the Charlotte, NC, region. We derived forest cover change trajectories occurring within nested spatial extents per sample site using a time series of aerial photos from 1938 to 2009, then classified trajectories by spatio-temporal patterns of change. While accounting for landscape and environmental covariates, we assessed the effects of the trajectory classes as compared to net forest cover change on native plant diversity.

Results

Our results indicated that forest stand diversity is best explained by forest change trajectories, while the herb layer is better explained by net forest cover change. Three distinct forest change trajectory classes were found to influence the forest stand and herb layer.

Conclusions

The influence of forest dynamics on biodiversity can be overlooked in analyses that use only net forest cover change. Our results illustrate the utility of assessing how specific trajectories of past land cover change influence biodiversity patterns in the present.

     

Habitat and food supply across multiple spatial scales influence the distribution and abundance of a nocturnal aerial insectivore

Context

Conservation research often focuses on individual threats at a single spatial scale, but population declines can result from multiple stressors occurring at different spatial scales. Analyses incorporating alternative hypotheses across spatial scales allow more robust evaluation of the ecological processes underlying population declines.

Objectives

Populations of many aerially insectivorous birds are declining, yet conservation efforts remain focused on habitat due to an absence of data on changes in prey availability. We evaluate the potential for prey and habitat availability at multiple spatial scales to influence a population of eastern whip-poor-wills (Antrostomus vociferous).

Methods

We assess relationships between landcover (topographical map and satellite imagery) and insect abundance (moths and beetles from blacklight traps), and whip-poor-will distribution and abundance within eastern Canada using Ontario breeding bird atlas data (1980s and 2000s), acoustic recordings (regional), and point counts (local).

Results

Whip-poor-will occurrence in both atlas time periods was positively associated with forest area and fragmentation, but only a delayed effect of urban area explained reductions in detection. Contemporary regional whip-poor-will presence was positively related to moth abundance, and local whip-poor-will abundance was best predicted by area of open-canopy forest, anthropogenic linear disturbance density, and beetle abundance. Our finding that bird presence and abundance were associated with human activity and insect abundance across spatial scales suggests factors beyond habitat structure are likely driving population declines in whip-poor-wills and other aerial insectivores.

Conclusions

This study demonstrates the importance of examining multiple hypotheses, including seasonally and locally variable food availability, across a range of spatial scales to direct conservation efforts.

     

Using operating area size and adjacency constraints to mitigate the effects of harvesting activities on boreal caribou habitat

Context

Sustained timber harvesting conflicts with the long-term viability of boreal caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) populations. The spatial arrangement of harvest blocks in the landscape could mitigate the impact of logging on caribou populations. For the forest industry, however, these measures represent constraints that reduce the annual allowable cut (AAC).

Objective

Estimate the long-term impacts of spatial constraints to harvesting, applied alone or in combination, on AAC and boreal caribou populations.

Methods

We divided a 30,000 km² region into 20 harvest block sizes varying from 50 to 1000 km², and modeled the implementation of spatially explicit harvest schedule plans in combination with wildfire and caribou population dynamics. We then evaluated the probability of persistence of boreal caribou populations.

Results

The probability of maintaining an AAC target declined with increasing target AAC, increasing size of operating area, and increasing adjacency constraints. In contrast, the probability of maintaining caribou populations declined with increasing AAC, decreasing size of operating areas, and decreasing adjacency constraints. An increase in operating area size from 50 to 300 km² produced a considerable gain in AAC for all adjacency constraints.

Conclusions

Because adjacency constraints led only to a small increase in the probability of maintaining caribou populations, we recommend adopting less constraining landscape management actions, such as a 70-year period between two consecutive harvests in the same ~300-km² operating area.