Getting to the root of the matter: landscape implications of plant-fungal interactions for tree migration in Alaska

Context

Forecasting the expansion of forest into Alaska tundra is critical to predicting regional ecosystem services, including climate feedbacks such as carbon storage. Controls over seedling establishment govern forest development and migration potential. Ectomycorrhizal fungi (EMF), obligate symbionts of all Alaskan tree species, are particularly important to seedling establishment, yet their significance to landscape vegetation change is largely unknown.

Objective

We used ALFRESCO, a landscape model of wildfire and vegetation dynamics, to explore whether EMF inoculum potential influences patterns of tundra afforestation and associated flammability.

Methods

Using two downscaled CMIP3 general circulation models (ECHAM5 and CCCMA) and a mid-range emissions scenario (A1B) at a 1 km² resolution, we compared simulated tundra afforestation rates and flammability from four parameterizations of EMF effects on seedling establishment and growth from 2000 to 2100.

Results

Modeling predicted an 8.8–18.2 % increase in forest cover from 2000 to 2100. Simulations that explicitly represented landscape variability in EMF inoculum potential showed a reduced percent change afforestation of up to a 2.8 % due to low inoculum potential limiting seedling growth. This reduction limited fuel availability and thus, cumulative area burned. Regardless of inclusion of EMF effects in simulations, landscape flammability was lower for simulations driven by the wetter and cooler CCCMA model than the warmer and drier ECHAM5 model, while tundra afforestation was greater.

Conclusions

Results suggest abiotic factors are the primary driver of tree migration. Simulations including EMF effects, a biotic factor, yielded more conservative estimates of land cover change across Alaska that better-matched empirical estimates from the previous century.

     

Importance of fuel treatment for limiting moderate-to-high intensity fire: findings from comparative fire modelling

Context

Wildland fire intensity influences natural communities, soil properties, erosion, and sequestered carbon. Measuring effectiveness of fuel treatment for reducing area of higher intensity unplanned fire is argued to be more meaningful than determining effect on total unplanned area burned.

Objectives

To contrast the relative importance of fuel treatment effort, ignition management effort and weather for simulated total area burned and area burned by moderate-to-high intensity fire, and to determine the level of consensus among independent models.

Methods

Published and previously unreported data from simulation experiments using three landscape fire models, two incorporating weather from south-eastern Australia and one with weather from a Mediterranean location, were compared. The comparison explored variation in fuel treatment and ignition management effort across ten separate years of daily weather. Importance of these variables was measured by the Relative Sum of Squares in a Generalised Linear Model analysis of total pixels burned and pixels burned with moderate-to-high intensity fire.

Results

Variation in fuel treatment effort, from 0 to 30 % of landscape treated, explained less than 7 % of variation in both total area burned and area burned by moderate-to-high intensity fire. This was markedly less than that explained by variation in ignition management effort (0–75 % of ignitions prevented or extinguished) and weather year in all models.

Conclusions

Increased fuel treatment effort, within a range comparable to practical operational limits, was no more important in controlling simulated moderate-to-high intensity unplanned fire than it was for total unplanned area burned.

     

Drivers and trends in landscape patterns of stand-replacing fire in forests of the US Northern Rocky Mountains (1984–2010)

Context

Resilience in fire-prone forests is strongly affected by landscape burn-severity patterns, in part by governing propagule availability around stand-replacing patches in which all or most vegetation is killed. However, little is known about drivers of landscape patterns of stand-replacing fire, or whether such patterns are changing during an era of increased wildfire activity.

Objectives

(a) Identify key direct/indirect drivers of landscape patterns of stand-replacing fire (e.g., size, shape of patches), (b) test for temporal trends in these patterns, and (c) anticipate thresholds beyond which landscape patterns of burn severity may change fundamentally.

Methods

We applied structural equation modeling to satellite burn-severity maps of fires in the US Northern Rocky Mountains (1984–2010) to test for direct and indirect (via influence on fire size and proportion stand-replacing) effects of climate/weather, vegetation, and topography on landscape patterns of stand-replacing fire. We also tested for temporal trends in landscape patterns.

Results

Landscape patterns of stand-replacing fire were strongly controlled by fire size and proportion stand-replacing, which were, in turn, controlled by climate/weather and vegetation/topography, respectively. From 1984 to 2010, the proportion of stand-replacing fire within burn perimeters increased from 0.22 to 0.27. Trends for other landscape metrics were not significant, but may respond to further increases proportion stand-replacing fire.

Conclusions

Fires from 1984 to 2010 exhibited tremendous heterogeneity in landscape patterns of stand-replacing fire, likely promoting resilience in burned areas. If trends continue on the current trajectory, however, fires may produce larger and simpler shaped patches of stand-replacing fire with more burned area far from seed sources.

     

Soundscapes reveal disturbance impacts: biophonic response to wildfire in the Sonoran Desert Sky Islands

Context

While remote sensing imagery is effective for quantifying land cover changes across large areas, its utility for directly assessing the response of animals to disturbance is limited. Soundscapes approaches—the recording and analysis of sounds in a landscape—could address this shortcoming.

Objectives

In 2011, a massive wildfire named “the Horseshoe 2 Burn” occurred in the Chiricahua National Monument, Arizona, USA. We evaluated the impact of this wildfire on acoustic activity of animal communities.

Methods

In 2013, soundscape recordings were collected over 9 months in 12 burned and 12 non-burned sites in four ecological systems. The seasonal and diel biological acoustic activity were described using the “Bioacoustic Index”, a detailed aural analysis of sound sources, and a new tool called “Sonic Timelapse Builder” (STLB).

Results

Seasonal biophony phenology showed a diurnal peak in June and a nocturnal peak in October in all ecological systems. On June mornings, acoustic activity was lower at burned than at non-burned sites in three of four ecological systems, due to a decreased abundance of cicadas directly impacted by the death of trees. Aural analyses revealed that 55% of recordings from non-burned sites contained insect sounds compared to 18% from burned sites. On October nights, orthopteran activity was more prevalent at some burned sites, possibly due to post-fire emergence of herbaceous.

Conclusions

Soundscape approaches can help address long-term conservation issues involving the responses of animal communities to wildfire. Acoustic methods can serve as a valuable complement to remote sensing for disturbance-based landscape management.

     

Microhabitat conditions and landscape pattern explain nocturnal rodent activity,but not seed removal,in burned and unburned lodgepole pine forests

Context

Disturbances create spatial variation in environments that may influence animal foraging. Granivory by rodents can influence seed supply and thus plant establishment. However, effects of disturbance patterns on rodent seed removal in western North American conifer forests are generally unknown.

Objectives

We conducted a study in lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta var. latifolia) forests of Greater Yellowstone (Wyoming, USA) to answer: (1) How do seed removal and rodent activity vary between recently burned and adjacent unburned forests and with distance from fire perimeter? (2) Which microhabitat conditions explain variability in seed removal and rodent activity?

Methods

One or two years after wildfires, we established transects (n = 23) with four stations each: at 10 and 40 m from the fire perimeter in both burned and unburned forest. At stations, we deployed trays with lodgepole pine seeds and cameras pointed at trays for 28 days and quantified habitat structure and seed abundance.

Results

Seed removal, which averaged 85%, and diurnal rodent activity did not differ between burned and unburned forests or with distance from the fire perimeter; however, nocturnal rodent activity was lower in burned forests. Seed removal and diurnal rodent activity were not associated with any microhabitat conditions we measured. However, nocturnal rodent activity was associated with microhabitat in both burned and unburned forests.

Conclusions

High seed removal rates suggested that rodent foraging was not reduced by high-severity wildfire. If observed seed removal represents natural conditions, post-dispersal seed predation could influence post-fire recruitment of a widespread foundation tree species.

     

Landscape metrics as a framework to measure the effect of landscape structure on the spread of invasive insect species

Context

With accelerated land-use change throughout the world, increased understanding of the relative effects of landscape composition and configuration on biological system and bioinvasion in particular, is needed to design effective management strategies. However, this topic is poorly understood in part because empirical studies often fail to account for large gradients of habitat complexity and offer insufficient or even no replication across habitats.

Objectives

The aim of this study was to disentangle the independent and interactive effects of landscape composition and landscape configuration on the establishment and spread of invasive insect species.

Methods

We explore a spatially-explicit, mechanistic modeling framework that allows for systematic investigation of the impact of changes in landscape composition and landscape configuration on establishment and spread of invasive insect species. Landscape metrics are used as an indicators of invasive insect establishment and spread.

Results

We showed that the presence of an Allee effect leads to a balance between the effectiveness of spread and invasion success. Spread is maximized at an intermediate dispersal level and inhibited at both low and high levels of dispersal. The landscape, by either increasing or mitigating the dispersal abilities of a species, can lead to a rate of spread under a dispersal threshold for which density and spread is at the highest.

Conclusion

Our study proposes that change in landscape structure is an additional explanation of the highly variable spread dynamics observed in natural and anthropogenic landscapes. Consequently, a landscape-scale perspective could significantly improve spread risk assessment and the design of control or containment strategies.

     

Revision and application of the LINKAGES model to simulate forest growth in central hardwood landscapes in response to climate change

Context

Global climate change impacts forest growth and methods of modeling those impacts at the landscape scale are needed to forecast future forest species composition change and abundance. Changes in forest landscapes will affect ecosystem processes and services such as succession and disturbance, wildlife habitat, and production of forest products at regional, landscape and global scales.

Objectives

LINKAGES 2.2 was revised to create LINKAGES 3.0 and used it to evaluate tree species growth potential and total biomass production under alternative climate scenarios. This information is needed to understand species potential under future climate and to parameterize forest landscape models (FLMs) used to evaluate forest succession under climate change.

Methods

We simulated total tree biomass and responses of individual tree species in each of the 74 ecological subsections across the central hardwood region of the United States under current climate and projected climate at the end of the century from two general circulation models and two representative greenhouse gas concentration pathways.

Results

Forest composition and abundance varied by ecological subsection with more dramatic changes occurring with greater changes in temperature and precipitation and on soils with lower water holding capacity. Biomass production across the region followed patterns of soil quality.

Conclusions

Linkages 3.0 predicted realistic responses to soil and climate gradients and its application was a useful approach for considering growth potential and maximum growing space under future climates. We suggest Linkages 3.0 can also can used to inform parameter estimates in FLMs such as species establishment and maximum growing space.

     

Landscape,fire and habitat: which features of recently burned heathland influence site occupancy of an early successional specialist?

Context

Multiple ecological drivers generate spatial patterns in species’ distributions. Changes to natural disturbance regimes can place early successional habitat specialists at an increased risk of extinction by altering landscape patterns of habitat suitability.

Objectives

We developed a series of hypotheses to evaluate the effects of landscape structure, fire history, and site-level habitat quality on site occupancy by an early successional specialist, the eastern chestnut mouse (Pseudomys gracilicaudatus).

Methods

We obtained eight years of monitoring data from 26 sites in recently burned heathland in southeast Australia. We used generalised linear models to determine which explanatory variables were related to occupancy. We also explored predictability in patterns of small mammal species co-occurrence.

Results

Landscape structure (patch area, landscape heterogeneity) was strongly related to site occupancy. Site occupancy was associated with dead shrubs in the understory and rock cover on ground layer, but was not directly influenced by recent or historical fire. Contrary to contemporary ecological theory, we found no predictable species associations in our early successional community.

Conclusions

We recommend surveys take account of landscape configuration and proximity to suitable habitat for optimal results. Fire regimes expected to promote eastern chestnut mouse population growth should encourage the retention of critical habitat features rather than be based on temporal rates of successional stages. For management to adequately account for post-disturbance patterns in early successional communities, a species-by-species, multi-scaled approach to research is necessary.

     

Role of past and present landscape structure in determining epiphyte richness in fragmented Mediterranean forests

Context

The anthropocene is characterised by global landscape modification, and the structure of remnant habitats can explain different patterns of species richness. The most pervasive processes of degradation include habitat loss and fragmentation. However, a recovery of modified landscape is occurring in some areas.

Objectives

The main goal is to know how lichen and bryophyte epiphytic richness growing on Mediterranean forests is influenced not only by fragments characteristics but also by the structure of the landscape. We introduce a temporal dimension in order to evaluate if the historical landscape structure is relevant for current epiphytic communities.

Methods

40 well-preserved forest fragments were selected in a landscape with a large habitat loss over decades, but with a recovery of forest surface in the last 55 years. The most relevant fragment and landscape-scale attributes were considered. Some of the variables were measured in three different years to incorporate a temporal framework.

Results

The results showed that variables at fragment scale had a higher influence, whereas variables at the landscape scale were irrelevant. Among all the historical variables analyzed, only the shift in forest fragment size had influence on species richness.

Conclusions

Mediterranean forests had suffered fragmentation along centuries. Their epiphytic communities also suffer the hard conditions of Mediterranean climate. Our results indicate that Mediterranean epiphytic communities may be in a threshold since it they will never be similar to those communities existing previous fragmentation process even a recovery habitat occur or, they may require more time to response to this habitat recovery.

     

Surface metrics for landscape ecology: a comparison of landscape models across ecoregions and scales

Context

The patch-mosaic model is lauded for its conceptual simplicity and ease with which conventional landscape metrics can be computed from categorical maps, yet many argue it is inconsistent with ecological theory. Gradient surface models (GSMs) are an alternative for representing landscapes, but adoption of surface metrics for analyzing spatial patterns in GSMs is hindered by several factors including a lack of meaningful interpretations.

Objectives

We investigate the performance and applicability of surface metrics across a range of ecoregions and scales to strengthen theoretical foundations for their adoption in landscape ecology.

Methods

We examine metric clustering across scales and ecoregions, test correlations with patch-based metrics, and provide ecological interpretations for a variety of surface metrics with respect to forest cover to support the basis for selecting surface metrics for ecological analyses.

Results

We identify several factors complicating the interpretation of surface metrics from a landscape perspective. First, not all surface metrics are appropriate for landscape analyses. Second, true analogs between surface metrics and patch-based, landscape metrics are rare. Researchers should focus instead on how surface measures can uniquely measure spatial patterns. Lastly, scale dependencies exist for surface metrics, but relationships between metrics do not appear to change considerably with scale.

Conclusions

Incorporating gradient surfaces into landscape ecological analyses is challenging, and many surface metrics may not have patch analogs or be ecologically relevant. For this reason, surface metrics should be considered in terms of the set of pattern elements they represent that can then be linked to landscape characteristics.

     

Bat richness and activity in heterogeneous landscapes: guild-specific and scale-dependent?

Context

The conversion of natural environments into agricultural land has profound effects on the composition of the landscape, often resulting in a mosaic of human-altered and natural habitats. The response to these changes may however vary among organisms. Bats are highly vagile, and their requirements often imply the use of distinct habitats, which they select responding to both landscape and local features.

Objectives

We aimed to identify which features influence bat richness and activity within Baixo Vouga Lagunar, a heterogeneous landscape located on the Central-North Portuguese coast, and to investigate if that influence varies across a gradient of focal scales.

Methods

We sampled bats acoustically, while simultaneously sampling insects with light traps. We assessed the relationships between species richness, bat activity, and activity of eco-morphological guilds with landscape and local features, across four scales.

Results

Our results revealed both scale- and guild-dependent responses of bats to landscape and local features. At broader scales we found positive associations between open-space foraging bats and habitat heterogeneity and between edge-space foraging bats and greater edge lengths. Woodland cover and water availability at an intermediate scale and weather conditions and insect abundance at a local scale were the factors that mostly influenced the response variables.

Conclusions

Globally, our results suggest that bats are sensitive to local resource availability and distribution, while simultaneously reacting to landscape features acting at coarser scales. Finally, our results suggest that the responses given by bats are guild-dependent, and some habitats act as keystone structures for bats within this mosaic.

     

The plant functional traits that explain species occurrence across fragmented grasslands differ according to patch management,isolation, and wetness

Context

Landscape fragmentation significantly affects species distributions by decreasing the number and connectivity of suitable patches. While researchers have hypothesized that species functional traits could help in predicting species distribution in a landscape, predictions should depend on the type of patches available and on the ability of species to disperse and grow there.

Objectives

To explore whether different traits can explain the frequency of grassland species (number of occupied patches) and/or their occupancy (ratio of occupied to suitable patches) across a variety of patch types within a fragmented landscape.

Methods

We sampled species distributions over 1300 grassland patches in a fragmented landscape of 385 km² in the Czech Republic. Relationships between functional traits and species frequency and occupancy were tested across all patches in the landscape, as well as within patches that shared similar management, wetness, and isolation.

Results

Although some traits predicting species frequency also predicted occupancy, others were markedly different, with competition- and dispersal-related traits becoming more important for occupancy. Which traits were important differed for frequency and occupancy and also differed depending on patch management, wetness, and isolation.

Conclusions

Plant traits can provide insight into plant distribution in fragmented landscapes and can reveal specific abiotic, biotic, and dispersal processes affecting species occurrence in a patch type. However, the importance of individual traits depends on the type of suitable patches available within the landscape.

     

Landscape relatedness: detecting contemporary fine-scale spatial structure in wild populations

Context

Methods for detecting contemporary, fine-scale population genetic structure in continuous populations are scarce. Yet such methods are vital for ecological and conservation studies, particularly under a changing landscape.

Objectives

Here we present a novel, spatially explicit method that we call landscape relatedness (LandRel). With this method, we aim to detect contemporary, fine-scale population structure that is sensitive to spatial and temporal changes in the landscape.

Methods

We interpolate spatially determined relatedness values based on SNP genotypes across the landscape. Interpolations are calculated using the Bayesian inference approach integrated nested Laplace approximation. We empirically tested this method on a continuous population of brown bears (Ursus arctos) spanning two counties in Sweden.

Results

Two areas were identified as differentiated from the remaining population. Further analysis suggests that inbreeding has occurred in at least one of these areas.

Conclusions

LandRel enabled us to identify previously unknown fine-scale structuring in the population. These results will help direct future research efforts, conservation action and aid in the management of the Scandinavian brown bear population. LandRel thus offers an approach for detecting subtle population structure with a focus on contemporary, fine-scale analysis of continuous populations.

     

Holding the line: three decades of prescribed fires halt but do not reverse woody encroachment in grasslands

Context

Encroachment of woody vegetation represents a significant global threat to biodiversity in grasslands, but practices used to reverse encroachment are rarely evaluated comprehensively. Several factors may drive encroachment, such as land use history, alteration of disturbance regimes, and local environment, but their relative importance is poorly understood. Another complicating factor is that encroachment may proceed via positive feedbacks that result in thresholds, beyond which its reversal is difficult.

Objectives

We ask what impact reintroducing frequent fire has on encroachment relative to the influences of landscape context and historical vegetation. We investigate whether woody cover frequency distributions suggest that feedbacks reinforce encroachment after a threshold of woody cover is surpassed.

Methods

We analyze aerial photos in glade grasslands in Missouri, USA, to assess encroachment patterns over a 75-year period. Fire was excluded from this landscape for the first 45 years, and then reintroduced at varying frequencies in the last 30 years.

Results

Woody vegetation cover increased sevenfold from 1939 to 2014 overall. After the reintroduction of prescribed fire, woody cover stayed approximately constant in burned glades, but continued increasing in unburned glades. Woody cover followed bimodal frequency distributions in burned areas. Fire-tolerant vegetation tended to encroach near historically wooded areas, while fire-sensitive vegetation responded more to fire history.

Conclusions

Altered disturbance regimes, in addition to numerous recognized drivers, can cause ecosystem state changes associated with losses to biodiversity. Conducting management early in the encroachment process and restoring grasslands at broad landscape scales may help counteract local feedbacks that promote encroachment.

     

Temporal shifts in landscape connectivity for an ecosystem engineer,the roe deer,across a multiple-use landscape

Context

Routine movements of large herbivores, often considered as ecosystem engineers, impact key ecological processes. Functional landscape connectivity for such species influences the spatial distribution of associated ecological services and disservices.

Objectives

We studied how spatio-temporal variation in the risk-resource trade-off, generated by fluctuations in human activities and environmental conditions, influences the routine movements of roe deer across a heterogeneous landscape, generating shifts in functional connectivity at daily and seasonal time scales.

Methods

We used GPS locations of 172 adult roe deer and step selection functions to infer landscape connectivity. In particular, we assessed the influence of six habitat features on fine scale movements across four biological seasons and three daily periods, based on variations in the risk-resource trade-off.

Results

The influence of habitat features on roe deer movements was strongly dependent on proximity to refuge habitat, i.e. woodlands. Roe deer confined their movements to safe habitats during daytime and during the hunting season, when human activity is high. However, they exploited exposed open habitats more freely during night-time. Consequently, we observed marked temporal shifts in landscape connectivity, which was highest at night in summer and lowest during daytime in autumn. In particular, the onset of the autumn hunting season induced an abrupt decrease in landscape connectivity.

Conclusions

Human disturbance had a strong impact on roe deer movements, generating pronounced spatio-temporal variation in landscape connectivity. However, high connectivity at night across all seasons implies that Europe’s most abundant and widespread large herbivore potentially plays a key role in transporting ticks, seeds and nutrients among habitats.

     

Fire legacies impact conifer regeneration across environmental gradients in the U.S. northern Rockies

Context

An increase in the incidence of large wildfires worldwide has prompted concerns about the resilience of forest ecosystems, particularly in the western U.S., where recent changes are linked with climate warming and 20th-century land management practices.

Objectives

To study forest resilience to recent wildfires, we examined relationships among fire legacies, landscape features, ecological conditions, and patterns of post-fire conifer regeneration.

Methods

We quantified regeneration across 182 sites in 21 recent large fires in dry mixed-conifer forests of the U.S. northern Rockies. We used logistic and negative binomial regression to predict the probability of establishment and abundance of conifers 5–13 years post-fire.

Results

Seedling densities varied widely across all sites (0–127,500 seedlings ha^?1) and were best explained by variability in distance to live seed sources (β = ?0.014, p = 0.002) and pre-fire tree basal area (β = 0.072, p = 0.008). Beyond 95 m from the nearest live seed source, the probability of seedling establishment was low. Across all the fires we studied, 75 % of the burned area with high tree mortality was within this 95-m threshold, suggesting the presence of live seed trees to facilitate natural regeneration.  

Conclusions

Combined with the mix of species present within the burn mosaic, dry mixed-conifer forests will be resilient to large fires across our study region, provided that seedlings survive, fire do not become more frequent, high-severity patches do not get significantly larger, and post-fire climate conditions remain suitable for seedling establishment and survival.

     

A multi-species approach for assessing the impact of land-cover changes on landscape connectivity

Context

Land-cover changes (LCCs) could impact wildlife populations through gains or losses of natural habitats and changes in the landscape mosaic. To assess such impacts, we need to focus on landscape connectivity from a diachronic perspective.

Objectives

We propose a method for assessing the impact of LCCs on landscape connectivity through a multi-species approach based on graph theory. To do this, we combine two approaches devised to spatialize the variation of multi-species connectivity and to quantify the importance of types of LCCs for single-species connectivity by highlighting the possible contradictory effects.

Methods

We begin with a list of landscape species and create virtual species with similar ecological requirements. We model the ecological network of these virtual species at two dates and compute the variation of a local and global connectivity metric to assess the impacts of the LCCs on their dispersal capacities.

Results

The spatial variation of multi-species connectivity showed that local impacts range from ?6.4% to +3.2%. The assessment of the impacts of types of LCCs showed a variation in global connectivity ranging from ?45.1% for open-area reptiles to +170.2% for natural open-area birds with low-dispersion capacities.

Conclusions

This generic approach can be reproduced in a large variety of spatial contexts by adapting the selection of the initial species. The proposed method could inform and guide conservation actions and landscape management strategies so as to enhance or maintain connectivity for species at a landscape scale.

     

Activating landscape ecology: a governance framework for design-in-science

Context

In response to predominantly local and private approaches to landscape change, landscape ecologists should critically assess the multiscalar influences on landscape design.

Objectives

This study develops a governance framework for Nassauer and Opdam’s “Design-in-Science” model. Its objective is to create an approach for examining hierarchical constraints on landscape design in order to investigate linkages among urban greening initiatives, patterns of landscape change, and the broader societal values driving those changes. It aims to provide an integrative and actionable approach for landscape sustainability science.

Methods

This framework is examined through an ethnographic study of public policy processes surrounding the urban tree initiatives in Boston, MA; Philadelphia, PA; and Baltimore, MD.

Results

These initiatives demonstrate the impact of political and economic decentralization on urban landscape patterns. Their collaborative governance approach incorporates diverse resources to implement programming at a fine-scale. The predominant tree giveaway program fragments the urban and regional forest.

Conclusion

Spatial and temporal fragmentation undermines the long-term security of urban greening programs, and it suggests reconsideration of the role of state regimes in driving broad scale spatial planning.

     

Collaborative scenario modeling reveals potential advantages of blending strategies to achieve conservation goals in a working forest landscape

Context

Broad-scale land conservation and management often involve applying multiple strategies in a single landscape. However, the potential outcomes of such arrangements remain difficult to evaluate given the interactions of ecosystem dynamics, resource extraction, and natural disturbances. The costs and potential risks of implementing these strategies make robust evaluation critical.

Objectives

We used collaborative scenario modeling to compare the potential outcomes of alternative management strategies in the Two Hearted River watershed in Michigan’s Upper Peninsula to answer key questions: Which management strategies best achieve conservation goals of maintaining landscape spatial heterogeneity and conserving mature forests and wetlands? And how does an increase in wildfire and windthrow disturbances influence these outcomes?

Methods

Scenarios were modeled using the VDDT/TELSA state-and-transition modeling suite, and resulting land cover maps were analyzed using ArcGIS, FRAGSTATS, and R statistical software.

Results

Results indicate that blending conservation strategies, such as single-ownership forest reserves and working forest conservation easements in targeted areas of the landscape, may better achieve these goals than applying a single strategy across the same area. However, strategies that best achieve these conservation goals may increase the sensitivity of the landscape to changes in wildfire and windthrow disturbance regimes.

Conclusions

These results inform decision-making about which conservation strategy or combination of strategies to apply in specific locations on the landscape to achieve optimum conservation outcomes, how to best utilize scarce financial resources, and how to reduce the financial and ecological risks associated with the application of innovative strategies in an uncertain future.

     

Wildfire and exotic grass invasion alter plant productivity in response to climate variability in the Mojave Desert

Context

Annual grass invasions often increase the frequency and extent of wildfire. Climate variability and fire history may have modifying effects on invasion success and its link to changing fire regimes.

Objective

Characterize the role of climate variability and fire history in vegetation shifts of an invaded desert landscape.

Method

Pre- and post-fire landscape vegetation greenness were assessed on multiple, independent wildfires in Mojave Desert shrublands using a 34 year record of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) derived from 1685 Landsat images and matched with a record of precipitation using linear regression.

Results

Annual maximum NDVI, and its annual variance of monthly maximum values, were significantly higher on post-fire than pre-fire landscapes. Additionally, post-fire landscapes showed greater sensitivity to antecedent precipitation received the previous 4 months than pre-fire and unburned landscapes. Ground surveys of vegetation indicate that post-fire landscapes show little indication of recovery of native shrub cover and density but instead are dominated by the exotic grass red brome (Bromus rubens L.). Increased NDVI sensitivity to precipitation is likely related to the growth of red brome, which dominates burned landscapes. Record precipitation in the fall of 2004 contributed to the record NDVI values in 2005 likely driven by high density of red brome.

Conclusions

The heightened response of post-fire vegetation to extreme and more variable precipitation events appears to be contributing to the emergence of an invasive grass-fire cycle that constrains the re-establishment of fire sensitive native shrubs while reinforcing the dominance of exotic grasses.