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1.
Winter chilling trends for deciduous fruit trees in Australia   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
Deciduous fruit trees require exposure to cold winter temperatures to fulfil chilling requirements allowing production of normal harvests. Trends in chill accumulation over the last 100 years were investigated at a number of important horticultural locations in Australia. Historical analysis is a necessary first step when considering potential impacts of climate change. Chill was examined using four chill models; the 0-7.2 °C, Modified Utah, Positive Utah and Dynamic models. Differences between locations were found with notable recent declines at Orange, Lenswood, Tatura, Yarra Valley and Bacchus Marsh. Other locations have remained stable with no location exhibiting a consensus increase in chill across all models. Trends in chill were shown to differ between models with results indicating that the 0-7.2 °C model frequently behaved differently to the other three chill models. These results highlight the need for multi-model analysis for chill trends, especially in a climate change context, to avoid maladaptation.  相似文献   

2.
为进一步明确不同模型对葡萄需冷量和需热量的估算效果,并筛选出适宜设施促早栽培的葡萄品种,首先利用≤7.2℃模型、0~7.2℃模型和犹他模型等需冷量估算模型与生长度小时模型和有效积温模型等需热量估算模型分别估算22个供试葡萄品种的需冷、需热量;然后比较不同模型估算结果的年际间变异系数,筛选出最适需冷、需热量估算模型;最后将不同品种的需冷量和需热量聚类分析,筛选出适于设施促早栽培的品种.结果表明:对于供试葡萄品种需冷量的估算,以犹他模型效果最好;对于需热量的估算,采用有效积温模型更为适宜、简单实用.供试葡萄品种中高需冷量品种明显多于低需冷量品种,低需热量品种明显多于高需热量品种.其中无核早红、87-1、莎巴珍珠、香妃和红香妃等5个品种的需冷、需热量均低,花期早、更有利于产期调节,适宜设施促早栽培.  相似文献   

3.
Modelling phenology is crucial to assess the impact of climate change on the length of the canopy duration and the productivity of terrestrial ecosystems. Focusing on six dominant European tree species, the aims of this study were (i) to examine the accuracy of different leaf phenology models to simulate the onset and ending of the leafy season, with particular emphasis on the putative role of chilling to release winter bud dormancy and (ii) to predict seasonal shifts for the 21st century in response to climate warming.Models testing and validation were done for each species considering 2 or 3 years of phenological observations acquired over a large elevational gradient (1500 m range, 57 populations). Flushing models were either based solely on forcing temperatures (1-phase models) or both on chilling and forcing temperatures (2-phases models). Leaf senescence models were based on both temperature and photoperiod.We show that most flushing models are able to predict accurately the observed flushing dates. The 1-phase models are as efficient as 2-phases models for most species suggesting that chilling temperatures are currently sufficient to fully release bud dormancy. However, our predictions for the 21st century highlight that chilling temperature could be insufficient for some species at low elevation. Overall, flushing is expected to advance in the next decades but this trend substantially differed between species (from 0 to 2.4 days per decade). The prediction of leaf senescence appears more challenging, as the proposed models work properly for only two out of four deciduous species, for which senescence is expected to be delayed in the future (from 1.4 to 2.3 days per decade). These trends to earlier spring leafing and later autumn senescence are likely to affect the competitive balance between species. For instance, simulations over the 21st century predict a stronger lengthening of the canopy duration for Quercus petraea than for Fagus sylvatica, suggesting that shifts in the elevational distributions of these species might occur.  相似文献   

4.
We enhanced the forest patch model, Zelig, to explore the implications of 2×CO2 climate change scenarios on several forest regions in British Columbia and Alberta, Canada. In addition to the processes and phenomena commonly represented in individual-based models of forest stand dynamics, we added some species-specific phenology and site-specific frost events. The consideration of bud-break heat sum requirements, growing season limits, and chilling requirements for the induction of dormancy and cold hardiness slightly improved the ability of Zelig to predict the present composition of B.C. forests. Simulations of the predicted effects of future climatic regimes (based on the averaged predictions of four general circulation models) include some major shifts in equilibrial forest composition and productivity. Lowland temperate coastal forests are predicted to be severely stressed because indigenous species will no longer have their winter chilling requirements met. High-elevation coastal forests are expected to increase in productivity, while interior subalpine forests are expected to remain stable in productivity but will gradually be replaced by species currently characteristic of lower elevations. Dry, interior low-elevation forests in southern B.C. are likely to persist relatively unchanged, while wet interior forests are expected to support dramatic increases in yield, primarily by western hemlock. Northern interior sub-boreal forests are likewise expected to increase in productivity through enhanced growth of lodgepole pine. Conversely, the precipitous collapse of spruce stands in the true boreal forests of northeastern B.C. is expected to be associated with reduced productivity as they are replaced by pine species. Boreal-Cordilleran and Moist Boreal Mixedwood forests in Alberta are less likely to undergo compositional change, while becoming somewhat more productive. We believe these model enhancements to be a significant improvement over existing formulations, but the resulting predictions must still be viewed with caution. Model limitations include: (1) the current inability of climate models to predict future variation in monthly temperature and precipitation; (2) sparse information on the phenological behaviour of several important tree species; and (3) a poor understanding of the degree to which growth is constrained by different suboptimal climatic events.  相似文献   

5.
以临猗、洛川和栖霞3个富士系苹果主产区为研究区,基于2019−2020年各地调查样点的1km格网气象数据、实际始花期数据以及冷小时模型(Chilling Hour Model,CHM)和生长度小时(Growing Degree Hour,GDH)模型,利用网格搜索法得到苹果始花期最优冷/热需求量;然后将日气温特征值(日最高温Tmax、日最低温Tmin和日平均温Tavg)划分为单因子、双因子和三因子7种日气温特征因子组合方式,利用随机森林算法(Random Forest,RF)构建3个地区不同日气温特征因子组合下的日冷/热积量模型,以筛选最优日气温特征因子;在此基础上,基于最优日气温特征因子,利用RF构建苹果始花期预报模型,并通过独立实际始花期数据对预报模型进行精度评价。结果表明:(1)临猗地区的苹果始花期最优冷/热需求量分别为730CH和7350GDH,洛川地区分别为345CH和4950GDH,栖霞地区分别为520CH和4450GDH;(2)7种日气温特征因子组合中,Tmax、Tmin和Tavg三因子组合下的3个地区日冷/热积量模型在估算日冷/热积量时均具有较高的准确性,日冷积量估算值与基于CHM模型得到的日冷积量间的RMSE为0.97~2.50CH,日热积量估算值与基于GDH模型得到的日热积量间的RMSE为1.73~15.76GDH;(3)利用苹果始花期预报模型估算日冷/热积量,日冷/热积量估算值与基于CHM/GDH模型得到的日冷/热积量间的RMSE分别为1.08~1.14CH和2.03~3.74GDH;当利用该模型进行苹果始花期预报时,预报值与实际值R2为0.92,RMSE为3.44d,其精度与基于真实逐小时气温数据的精度整体一致,表明本研究构建的苹果始花期预报模型可以有效将输入气温数据从逐小时尺度转换为日尺度,这在后续苹果始花期预报工作中具有较好的应用价值和潜力。  相似文献   

6.
For rice (Oryza sativa L.), simulation models like ORYZA2000 and CERES-Rice have been used to explore adaptation options to climate change and weather-related stresses (drought, heat). Output of these models is very sensitive to accurate modelling of crop development, i.e. phenology. What has to date received little attention in phenology calibration is the temperature range within which phenological models are accurate. Particularly the possible correlation between temperature and phenology prediction error has received little attention, although there are indications that such correlation exists, in particular in the study by Zhang et al. (2008). The implication of such correlation is that a phenology model that is accurate within the calibration temperature range can be less accurate at higher temperatures where it can systematically overestimate or underestimate the duration of the phase from emergence to flowering. We have developed a new rice phenology calibration program that is consistent with ORYZA2000 concepts and coding. The existing calibration program DRATES of ORYZA2000 requires an assumption of default cardinal temperatures (8, 30 and 42 °C) and then calculates cultivar specific temperature sums and development rates. Our new program estimates all phenological parameters simultaneously, including the cardinal temperatures. Applied to nine large datasets from around the world we show that the use of default cardinal temperatures can lead to correlation between temperature and phenology prediction error and temperature and RMSE values in the order of 4-18 days for the period from emergence to flowering. Our new program avoids such correlation and reduces phenology prediction errors to 3-7 days (RMSE). Our results show that the often made assumption of a rapid decrease in development rate above the optimal temperature can lead to poorer predictions and systematic errors. We therefore caution against using default phenological parameters for studies where temperatures may fall outside the range for which the phenological models have been calibrated. In particular, this applies to climate change studies, were this could lead to highly erroneous conclusions. More phenological research with average growing season temperatures above the optimum, in the range of 32-40 °C, is needed to establish which phenological model best describes phenology in this temperature range.  相似文献   

7.
Chilling whole rice seedlings at 5 degrees C significantly increased the time needed to recover linear growth and reduced the subsequent linear rate of radicle growth. Subjecting nonchilled seedlings to a 45 degrees C heat shock for up to 20 min did not alter subsequent growth, whereas a 3 min heat shock was optimal in reducing growth inhibition caused by 2 days of chilling. The activity of five antioxidant enzymes [superoxide dismutase (EC 1.15.1.1), catalase (CAT; EC 1.11.1.6), ascorbate peroxidase (APX; EC 1.11.1.11), glutathione reductase (GR; EC 1.6.4.2), and guaiacol peroxidase (GPX; EC 1.11.1.7)] and DPPH (1,1-diphenyl-2-picrylhydrazyl)-radical scavenging activity were measured in heat-shocked and/or chilled radicles. Heat shock slightly increased the activity of CAT, APX, and GR and suppressed the increase of GR and GPX activity during recovery from chilling. Increased CAT, APX, GR, and DPPH-radical scavenging activity and protection of CAT activity during chilling appear to be correlated with heat shock-induced chilling tolerance.  相似文献   

8.
Blue honeysuckle (Lonicera caerulea L.) is a northern-adapted crop species with extremely early phenology and cold hardiness. Restricted adaptation to temperate climates is a current limitation to the crop’s mainstream potential for large-scale production. Based on the broad germplasm base at the University of Saskatchewan, vegetative growth cessation and leaf drop phenology were characterized to complement analysis of spring phenological adaptation in a temperate climate. A multi-trial site of three foundation groups and a single-site trial of three improved groups compared with their parental foundation genotypes were conducted in the Fraser Valley, British Columbia, Canada in 2012 and 2013. The current study shows that blue honeysuckle germplasm contains considerable phenological variation that will permit adaptation to temperate climates. It also demonstrates that breeding for improved adaptation is possible using the existing germplasm resources. For Russian germplasm with the earliest phenology, adaptation to northern latitudes and short growing seasons results in early floral initiation, which presents an indirect limitation to production in more southern latitudes due to secondary flowering. Early leaf drop indirectly limits production and is related to poor adaptation to high chill environments. Skew toward later leaf drop in improved groups, produced from hybridization with Japanese and Kuril germplasm with intermediate and late phenologies, respectively, shows that development of better adaptation to southern latitudes can be achieved.  相似文献   

9.
Current modeling studies on the impacts of climate change on agriculture widely assume that thermal time accumulation of crops during the growing season remains constant under various climate conditions. However, in this study, a 20-year single rice variety, experimental dataset indicates that the thermal time accumulation for the entire growing season is not constant. As a result, a crop model based on constant thermal time accumulation significantly underestimates the observed phenological trend exhibited over the two decades of research—despite comparably accurate simulations of short periods. This deviation can result in misleading yield simulations, whereas the model simulations, using observed phenology data, show a similar yield trend as the observation. This study casts serious doubt on the assumptions of constant thermal time accumulation made in previous modeling studies, and, moreover, it highlights the critical requirements needed to improve phenology simulations on a larger scale so that predictions of the eventual yield trends due to climate change can more accurately reflect the results of yield trends in reality.  相似文献   

10.
以番茄品种“中蔬4号”为试材,设置对照(人工气候室,温度变化范围18~28℃,600μmolm−2s−1,光周期12h,CK)和低温(人工气候箱,8℃,200μmolm−2s−1,光周期12h,CL)两个处理,低温处理4d后将番茄幼苗移入对照环境下恢复4d,观测叶片快速叶绿素荧光诱导动力学曲线在低温处理及恢复期的变化,以探讨低温胁迫和随后恢复对番茄叶片光系统II(PSII)反应中心和受体侧的影响。结果表明:低温胁迫降低了番茄叶片PSII光化学效率和光合性能,导致低温光抑制的发生。低温胁迫导致番茄叶片单位面积有活性的反应中心数目(RC/CS)及其开放程度(Ψo)下降,从而降低了叶片单位面积对光能的吸收(ABS/CS)、捕获(TRo/CS)和进行电子传递(ETo/CS)能力,减少了电子传递到电子传递链中超过QA−电子受体的概率(φEo),阻碍了光合电子传递的进行;与此同时,低温首先诱导了PSII可逆失活和热耗散增强以减少对过剩光能的吸收、传递与积累,随后促进了PSII受体侧电子传递体PQ库容量(Sm)增大以防御PSII过量激发压积累。本实验中低温主要抑制了番茄叶片PSII活性,而对PSI影响相对较小。恢复期天线色素对光能的吸收和PSII反应中心对光能的捕获能力较电子传递更易于恢复,并且恢复初期强光反而会加重光抑制程度。  相似文献   

11.
作物模型在农业生产管理和决策中发挥着重要作用,而物候期模拟是作物模型正确模拟作物生长发育和产量形成过程的基础。作物模型模拟物候发育的常用算法一般是基于积温的计算,同时也考虑光周期和春化作用的影响,但是水分胁迫对物候发育的次级影响却较少被考虑在内。该研究以连续2季(2013-2014和2014-2015)的遮雨棚下土柱试验和连续3季(2012-2013、2013-2014和2014-2015)的遮雨棚下大田试验数据和前人研究成果为基础提出了冬小麦物候期对水分胁迫的响应机制理论假设,并以土壤相对有效含水率为水分胁迫指标校正冬小麦物候期水分胁迫响应函数。该研究以2014-2015生长季土柱试验各处理试验数据来建立冬小麦物候期水分胁迫响应函数,确定发育加速点A、发育减速点D和发育停止点S所对应的相对有效含水率值分别为0.30、0.10和0。结果发现拔节期和开花期模拟值和观测值之间的均方根误差(root mean square error,RMSE)分别为0.8和1.7 d,绝对相对误差(absolute relative error,ARE)分别低于0.68%和2.09%。然后用2013-2014生长季土柱试验各处理数据进行验证,结果发现拔节期和开花期模拟值和观测值之间的RMSE分别约为0.9和1.1 d,ARE分别在1.37%和1.68%以下。最后再用3年独立大田试验数据对上述修正后的冬小麦物候期算法进行验证,结果发现开花期和成熟期的模拟值与观测值之间的RMSE分别约为2.4和2.0 d,ARE分别低于4.21%和2.67%;与DSSAT-CERES-Wheat模型的模拟结果进行比较,发现修正算法能反映出水分胁迫对冬小麦物候期造成的差异(有提前也有推迟),而DSSAT-CERES-Wheat模型无法体现这种差异,且开花期和成熟期的模拟值与观测值之间的RMSE分别约为4.0和5.5 d,误差最大分别为8和6 d。这表明校正后的冬小麦物候期算法模拟精度得到了较大提高,能在一定程度上描述和量化水分胁迫对冬小麦物候期的影响机制,可用来模拟不同水分胁迫条件下不同品种冬小麦的物候期。  相似文献   

12.
The continuous and automated monitoring of canopy phenology is of increasing scientific interest for the multiple implications of vegetation dynamics on ecosystem carbon and energy fluxes. For this purpose we evaluated the applicability of digital camera imagery for monitoring and modeling phenology and physiology of a subalpine grassland over the 2009 and 2010 growing seasons.We tested the relationships between color indices (i.e. the algebraic combinations of RGB brightness levels) tracking canopy greenness extracted from repeated digital images against field measurements of green and total biomass, leaf area index (LAI), greenness visual estimation, vegetation indices computed from continuous spectroradiometric measurements and CO2 fluxes observed with the eddy covariance technique. A strong relationship was found between canopy greenness and (i) structural parameters (i.e., LAI) and (ii) canopy photosynthesis (i.e. Gross Primary Production; GPP). Color indices were also well correlated with vegetation indices typically used for monitoring landscape phenology from satellite, suggesting that digital repeat photography provides high-quality ground data for evaluation of satellite phenology products.We demonstrate that by using canopy greenness we can refine phenological models (Growing Season Index, GSI) by describing canopy development and considering the role of ecological factors (e.g., snow, temperature and photoperiod) controlling grassland phenology. Moreover, we show that canopy greenness combined with radiation use efficiency (RUE) obtained from spectral indices related to photochemistry (i.e., scaled Photochemical Reflectance Index) or meteorology (i.e., MOD17 RUE) can be used to predict daily GPP.Building on previous work that has demonstrated that seasonal variation in the structure and function of plant canopies can be quantified using digital camera imagery, we have highlighted the potential use of these data for the development and parameterization of phenological and RUE models, and thus point toward an extension of the proposed methodologies to the dataset collected within PhenoCam Network.  相似文献   

13.
植物物候模型研究   总被引:7,自引:1,他引:7  
植物物候模型是基于植物对环境因子的响应机理而建立的可模拟植物生长发育的数学方程。本文介绍了树木物候模型和作物物候模型,根据对植物休眠解除过程的不同理解,树木物候模型主要有7种不同的类型;根据作物发育规律而建立的作物物候模型也大体相同。同时,还阐述和探讨了研究植物物候模型的意义、研究中存在的问题及其发展趋势。  相似文献   

14.
The temperature sensitivity of 43 phenological phases was analysed in Germany within the period 1951–2006 with the help of a Bayesian approach. First a Bayesian model comparison of monthly temperatures and phenological phases throughout the year was conducted. We analysed the data as constant (mean onset date), as linear (constant trend over time) and as change point model (time varying change). The change point model involves the selection of two linear segments which match at a particular time. The matching point is estimated by an examination of all possible breaks weighted by their respective change point probability. Secondly a Bayesian coherence analysis was applied to investigate the relationship between phenological onset dates and an effective temperature generated as a weighted average of monthly means. Temperature weight coefficients were obtained from an optimization of a coherence factor by simulated annealing.Results reveal that late spring, summer and early autumn temperature months exhibit a clear preference for the change point model (>50%) indicating nonlinear change. The temperature development of April and August shows exceptionally high nonlinearities compared to the other months with change point model probabilities of 78% and 81% over the last five decades.For all phenophases a strong dependence of phenology on temperature is determined. We can classify two main temperature response patterns of the studied phenological phases: on the one hand spring phenophases are particularly sensitive to temperatures in April, exhibiting a prompt response. On the other hand summer phenophases are less influenced by temperature during or right before the month of the onset. They reveal a delayed response to nonlinear temperature changes mainly of April. Especially abrupt changes during the temperature sensitive stage of species cause a pronounced change in plant phenology regardless of the time of onset.  相似文献   

15.
草本植物物候及其物候模拟模型的研究进展   总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4  
草地生态系统在全球变化过程中具有不容忽视的作用。为深入了解草本植物物候与气候因素间的相互作用机制,建立精确的草地植被物候动态模型,更好地模拟和预测天然草地生态系统对气候变化的响应,本文对国内外草本植物物候及有关草本植物物候模型研究进行了回顾。已有的研究表明物候变化能在一定程度上反映出气候变化的趋势,且温度、光照和水分等环境因素作为物候的主要驱动力在不同的时期发挥着重要的作用。植物物候模型从简单统计模型,逐渐向可描述生长与环境相互作用过程的动态机理模型发展。但可用于天然草地植被物候模拟的模型较少,仍存在物种单一、适用范围小、缺少机理性研究等问题。针对目前的研究现状,只有加强对天然草地植被物候与非生物因子关系的分析,特别是水分对物候的影响研究,努力探索各个物候期的生理特征,不断验证完善已有物候模型,才能建立起精确的草地植被物候模型服务于全球气候变化的研究。  相似文献   

16.
影响湖南早稻生产的五月低温的风险评估   总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3  
五月低温是影响湖南双季早稻的一种常见的低温冷害。近年来,五月低温发生频率较大,影响早稻生产,对粮食安全生产造成威胁。本文根据湖南省96个气象站1961-2009年5月逐日气象资料和湖南省《气象灾害术语和分级》地方标准,系统分析了五月低温的地域分布特征和发生时段的分布规律。并根据低温对水稻影响的原理,综合考虑低温发生的不同时段和低温程度对冷积温的意义,改进了冷积温计算方法,创建了当量冷积温。同时利用五月低温强度指数,结合湖南早稻种植实际情况,定量评估了基于早稻种植现状的五月低温的生产风险。结果表明:湘北和湘中地区发生五月低温的气象风险较高,且是早稻种植主产区,早稻生产的低温风险较大,是防范重点区域;湘南等地早稻五月低温气象风险小,仅在五月低温发生较重的年份须注意防范;湘西虽是五月低温气象风险的高发区,但由于该区域双季早稻种植面积小,低温对早稻生产影响不大。最后提出了各区域双季早稻生产安排防灾避灾的建议。  相似文献   

17.
气候变暖对山西南部典型植物物候的影响   总被引:5,自引:0,他引:5  
选取山西省运城市、临汾市、晋城市和长治县农业气象试验站典型木本和草本植物1982-2004年物候观测资料及各地1970-2004年气温资料,运用距平、线性趋势等方法分析各地气温和植物物候期的变化特征,以及气温对植物物候期的影响。结果表明,(1)春季物候期普遍呈提前趋势,生长季呈延长趋势;木本植物秋季物候期呈推迟趋势,大部分地区草本植物黄枯始期表现为略提前趋势,黄枯末期表现为推迟趋势。(2)随着年平均气温的不断升高,植物春季物候期呈提前趋势;木本植物秋季物候期呈推迟趋势,草本植物黄枯末期大多呈提前趋势。气温每升高1℃,植物展叶始期提前1~18d。  相似文献   

18.
全球气候变化背景下,经济林果的寒害敏感性和寒害风险越来越引起科学家的广泛关注。为全面了解我国华南地区经济林果寒害方面的研究现状,在综合分析近10年来相关文献的基础上,从寒害的定义和气象学类型、寒害的作用机理及影响因素、寒害的辨识与分级、寒害风险评估、寒害监测预警及防寒减灾措施等6个方面系统阐述了目前华南地区经济林果的寒害研究进展,概括了目前寒害研究存在的主要问题。为实现华南地区经济林果种植布局的合理规划、寒害的精确预报预警和经济林果业的可持续发展,未来的寒害研究要重点关注综合寒害指数的准确构建、抗寒基因的转入和定量表达、区域尺度及全球气候变化背景下的动态寒害风险评估等方面。将卫星遥感影像数据和地理信息系统(GIS)技术相结合,借助于寒害的机理性研究和野外调查结果,综合考虑物种的生物学特性和地形差异,实现寒害的准确和定量化分级、寒害的精确预警和风险区划也将是未来的研究趋势。  相似文献   

19.
ABSTRACT

Flowering performance and phenology of six new pear cultivars of Nordic origin were examined during a 12 year period. The seasonal timing of shoot growth and flower initiation were monitored in three years. The morphological floral stages of the flower bud formation process were examined for the cultivar ‘Celina’. Seven floral stages were identified and described. The date of full bloom varied between years as a function of the currently accumulated heat sum in early spring. Still, the earliness ranking of the cultivars was consistent across years for both flower initiation and blooming. The cultivars ‘Anna’ and ‘Ingeborg’ consistently initiated floral primordia 2–3 weeks earlier than ‘Celina’, ‘Clara Frijs’, ‘Fritjof’ and ‘Kristina’, and this was accompanied with 4–5 days earlier blooming in the following spring. The early flower initiation cultivars ‘Anna’ and ‘Ingeborg’ also had richer flowering than the late-blooming cultivars. ‘Fritjof’ was identified as a suitable pollinator for ‘Celina’ in the Nordic climate. Comparison of the flowering phenology of pear and apple cultivars showed that while the pears, on average, flowered a week ahead of the apples, they initiated flower primordia almost two weeks later, thus rendering the intervening period approximately three weeks longer in pear than in apple.  相似文献   

20.
Genetic Resources and Crop Evolution - In the present study, the phenological and genetic differences/similarities of 95 walnut genotypes were considered. These genotypes had been propagated...  相似文献   

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