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Foot and mouth disease (FMD) is a highly transmissible viral infection of cloven hooved animals associated with severe economic losses when introduced into FMD-free countries. Information on the impact of the disease in FMDV-endemic countries is poorly characterised yet essential for the prioritisation of scarce resources for disease control programmes. A FMD (virus serotype SAT2) outbreak on a large-scale dairy farm in Nakuru County, Kenya provided an opportunity to evaluate the impact of FMD on clinical mastitis and culling rate. A cohort approach followed animals over a 12-month period after the commencement of the outbreak. For culling, all animals were included; for mastitis, those over 18 months of age. FMD was recorded in 400/644 cattle over a 29-day period. During the follow-up period 76 animals were culled or died whilst in the over 18 month old cohort 63 developed clinical mastitis. Hazard ratios (HR) were generated using Cox regression accounting for non-proportional hazards by inclusion of time-varying effects. Univariable analysis showed FMD cases were culled sooner but there was no effect on clinical mastitis. After adjusting for possible confounders and inclusion of time-varying effects there was weak evidence to support an effect of FMD on culling (HR = 1.7, 95% confidence intervals [CI] 0.88-3.1, P = 0.12). For mastitis, there was stronger evidence of an increased rate in the first month after the onset of the outbreak (HR = 2.9, 95%CI 0.97-8.9, P = 0.057).

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13567-015-0173-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.  相似文献   

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First-fortnight incidence (FFI) is a modelling parameter that can be used to predict both the prevalence and duration of a foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) epidemic at regional and national levels. With an indication of how long an epidemic may last by the end of week two, it becomes possible to estimate whether vaccination would be economically viable from the start of an epidemic. Where FFI indicates that an epidemic is unlikely to last for as long as an export ban on agricultural produce, it may be inappropriate to implement a policy of 'vaccination to live'. Alternatively where FFI indicates that an epidemic will equal or exceed the ban length, then the benefits of vaccination should be considered at an early stage, during or after the first fortnight. Since blanket vaccination of the national or regional herds and flocks would be both costly and heighten the risk of producing carrier animals, targetting vaccination through risk assessment becomes useful.  相似文献   

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Intensification of livestock rearing often promotes an increase in inappropriate practices that disregard care for the environment, animal health, and workers' health. Intensive fish farming systems are often associated with higher stocking density and massive use of artificial feed. Currently, outbreaks of parasitic, bacterial, and fungal diseases act as major limiting factors for fish farming, meaning that producers have to make use of massive amounts of antibiotics, disinfectants, and pesticides in order to control mortality and avoid huge economic losses. Because of adverse effects on the aquatic environment, terrestrial organisms, and human health (both fish handlers and consumers), this therapy has been criticized. Use of herbal medicines within animal production has shown promise, in that it is natural and biodegradable and has antimicrobial activity against various pathogens, including those relating to fish. Recently, researchers have reported promising effects from many herbal medicines for treating parasitic diseases caused by protozoa and metazoa, and broad activity against bacteria and fungi. This review addresses the current issues regarding indiscriminate use of chemicals and antibiotics in aquaculture and discusses the main findings and methodologies of the latest research on herbal medicines to stimulate and accelerate research in this field, especially in developing countries.  相似文献   

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Using the stochastic and spatial simulation model of between-farm spread of disease, InterSpread Plus, we evaluated the effect of alternative strategies for controlling the 2002 epidemic of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in the Republic of Korea. InterSpread Plus was parameterised to simulate epidemics of FMD in the population of farms containing susceptible animal species in the Korean counties of Yongin, Icheon, Pyongtaek, Anseong, Eumseong, Asan, Cheonan, and Jincheon. The starting point of our analyses was the simulation of a reference strategy, which approximated the real epidemic. The results of simulations of alternative epidemic-control strategies were compared with this reference strategy. Ring vaccination (when used with either limited or extended pre-emptive depopulation) reduced both the size and variability of the predicted number of infected farms. Reducing the time between disease incursion and commencement of controls had the greatest effect on reducing the predicted number of infected farms.  相似文献   

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OBJECTIVE: To assess estimated effectiveness of control and eradication procedures for foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in a region of California. SAMPLE POPULATION: 2,238 herds and 5 sale yards in Fresno, Kings, andTulare counties of California. PROCEDURE: A spatial stochastic model was used to simulate hypothetical epidemics of FMD for specified control scenarios that included a baseline eradication strategy mandated by USDA and supplemental control strategies of slaughter or vaccination of all animals within a specified distance of infected herds, slaughter of only high-risk animals identified by use of a model simulation, and expansion of infected and surveillance zones. RESULTS: Median number of herds affected varied from 1 to 385 (17% of all herds), depending on type of index herd and delay in diagnosis of FMD. Percentage of herds infected decreased from that of the baseline eradication strategy by expanding the designated infected area from 10 to 20 km (48%), vaccinating within a 50-km radius of an infected herd (41%), slaughtering the 10 highest-risk herds for each infected herd (39%), and slaughtering all animals within 5 km of an infected herd (24%). CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Results for the model provided a means of assessing the relative merits of potential strategies for control and eradication of FMD should it enter the US livestock population. For the study region, preemptive slaughter of highest-risk herds and vaccination of all animals within a specified distance of an infected herd consistently decreased size and duration of an epidemic, compared with the baseline eradication strategy.  相似文献   

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Counter current immunoelectrophoresis (CCIE) is the diagnostic method used in the ongoing Aleutian disease virus eradication program on Danish mink farms. There has been an increasing demand for an alternative diagnostic test especially to evaluate suspected false positive CCIE reactions. We compared test results of a number of negative and positive mink sera in indirect counter current immunoelectrophoresis (ICCIE), counter current line absorption immunoelectrophoresis (CCLAIE) and radio immuno assay (RIA) with test results from counter current immunoelectrophoresis and found that counter current line absorption immunoelectrophoresis is the best alternative diagnostic screening test to counter current immunoelectrophoresis for Aleutian disease eradication programs. Not only proved the CCLAIE test to be useful for evaluation of doubtfully positive CCIE reactions, but it was found to have a higher sensitivity than the CCIE test.  相似文献   

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Alternative mitigation strategies were compared during hypothetical outbreaks of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in the USA using a computer-simulation model. The epidemiologic and economic consequences were compared during these simulated outbreaks. Three vaccination and four slaughter strategies were studied along with two speeds of FMD virus spread among three susceptible populations of animals. The populations represented typical animal demographics in the United States.The best strategy depended on the speed of spread of FMD virus and the demographics of the susceptible population. Slaughter of herds in contact with known contagious herds was less costly than slaughtering only contagious herds. Slaughtering in 3 km rings around contagious herds was consistently more costly than other slaughter strategies. Ring vaccination in 10 km rings was judged more costly than slaughter alone in most situations. Although early ring vaccination resulted in lower government costs and duration in fast-spread scenarios, it was more costly when vaccinated animals were slaughtered with indemnity and other related slaughter costs.  相似文献   

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1. On-farm quantification of sustainability indicators (SI) is an effective way to make sustainable development measurable. The egg production sector was used as a case study to illustrate this approach. 2. The objective was to select SI for economic, ecological and societal issues, and to analyse the performance on selected SI of different production systems. 3. For the case study, we compared 4 egg production systems, characterised by differences in the housing systems which are most common in the Netherlands: the battery-cage system, the deep-litter system with and without outdoor run, and the aviary system with outdoor run. 4. Based on a clear set of criteria, we selected SI for animal welfare, economics, environmental impact, ergonomics and product quality. 5. We showed that on-farm quantification of SI was an appropriate method to identify the strengths and weaknesses of different systems. 6. From this analysis it appears that the aviary system with outdoor run is a good alternative for the battery-cage system, with better scores for the aviary system on animal welfare and economics, but with worse scores on environmental impact.  相似文献   

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动物个体追踪是根除疾病的关键   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
利用与动物标识码相联系的数据,我们就能够追踪并随后根除动物的疾病。兽医流行病学家应具备快速处理这些记录的能力,并找出追踪疾病的爆发和控制疾病发生之间的差异。  相似文献   

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OBJECTIVE: To develop a spatial epidemic model to simulate intraherd and interherd transmission of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) virus. SAMPLE POPULATION: 2,238 herds, representing beef, dairy, swine, goats, and sheep, and 5 sale yards located in Fresno, Kings, and Tulare counties of California. PROCEDURE: Using Monte-Carlo simulations, a spatial stochastic epidemic simulation model was developed to identify new herds that would acquire FMD following random selection of an index herd and to assess progression of an epidemic after implementation of mandatory control strategies. RESULTS: The model included species-specific transition periods for FMD infection, locations of herds, rates of direct and indirect contacts among herds, and probability distributions derived from expert opinions on probabilities of transmission by direct and indirect contact, as well as reduction in contact following implementation of restrictions on movements in designated infected areas and surveillance zones. Models of supplemental control programs included slaughter of all animals within a specified distance of infected herds, slaughter of only high-risk animals identified by use of a model simulation, and vaccination of all animals within a 5- to 50-km radius of infected herds. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: The FMD model represents a tool for use in planning biosecurity and emergency-response programs and in comparing potential benefits of various strategies for control and eradication of FMD appropriate for specific populations.  相似文献   

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