Progress towards international targets for protected area coverage in mountains: A multi-scale assessment

Through the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD), the world’s governments recently adopted a target to protect “at least 17% of terrestrial and inland water areas” by 2020. One of the CBD’s thematic programmes of work focuses on mountains, given their importance for biodiversity and other ecosystem services, and their vulnerability to global change. We evaluated current levels of protection for mountains at multiple scales. Encouragingly, the CBD’s 17% target has already been almost met at a global scale: 16.9% of the world’s mountain areas outside Antarctica fall within protected areas. However, protection of mountain areas at finer scales remains uneven and is largely insufficient, with 63% (125) of countries, 57% (4) of realms, 67% (8) of biomes, 61% (437) of ecoregions and 53% (100) of Global 200 priority ecoregions falling short of the target. The target also calls for protected areas to be focussed “especially [at] areas of particular importance for biodiversity”. Important Bird Areas and Alliance for Zero Extinction sites represent existing global networks of such sites. It is therefore of major concern that 39% and 45% respectively of these sites in mountain areas remain entirely unprotected. Achievement of the 2020 CBD target in mountain regions will require more focused expansion of the protected area network in addition to enhanced management of individual sites and the wider countryside in order to ensure long term conservation of montane biodiversity and the other ecosystem services it provides.     

Global analysis of the protection status of the world’s forests

This study presents a global analysis of forest cover and forest protection. An updated Global Forest Map (using MODIS2005) provided a current assessment of forest cover within 20 natural forest types. This map was overlaid onto WWF realms and ecoregions to gain additional biogeographic information on forest distribution. Using the 2008 World Database on Protected Areas, percentage forest cover protection was calculated globally, within forest types, realms and ecoregions, and within selected areas of global conservation importance. At the 10% tree cover threshold, global forest cover was 39 million km². Of this, 7.7% fell within protected areas under IUCN management categories I–IV. With the inclusion of IUCN categories V and VI, the level of global forest protection increased to 13.5%. Percentage forest protection (IUCN I–IV) varied greatly between realms from 5.5% (Palearctic) to 13.4% (Australasia), and for forest types from 3.2% (temperate freshwater swamp forest) to 28% (temperate broadleaf evergreen forest). Median protection of forest cover in 670 ecoregions (forest above a specified threshold) was 5.9% (IUCN I–IV); at IUCN I–VI, 46% of the ecoregions had less than 10% forest protection. Considering their biodiversity importance, forest protection within global priority areas was insufficient, e.g., median protection of 8.4% in biodiversity hotspots (IUCN I–IV). Results have policy relevance in terms of the target of the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD), reconfirmed in 2008, to effectively conserve “at least 10% of each of the world’s forest types”. Regular updates of these analyses would allow progress towards achieving that target to be monitored.     

The implications of current and future urbanization for global protected areas and biodiversity conservation

Due to human population growth and migration, there will be nearly 2 billion new urban residents by 2030, yet the consequences of both current and future urbanization for biodiversity conservation are poorly known. Here we show that urban growth will have impacts on ecoregions, rare species, and protected areas that are localized but cumulatively significant. Currently, 29 of the world’s 825 ecoregions have over one-third of their area urbanized, and these 29 ecoregions are the only home of 213 endemic terrestrial vertebrate species. Our analyses suggest that 8% of terrestrial vertebrate species on the IUCN Red List are imperiled largely because of urban development. By 2030, 15 additional ecoregions are expected to lose more than 5% of their remaining undeveloped area, and they contain 118 vertebrate species found nowhere else. Of the 779 rare species with only one known population globally, 24 are expected to be impacted by urban growth. In addition, the distance between protected areas and cities is predicted to shrink dramatically in some regions: for example, the median distance from a protected area to a city in Eastern Asia is predicted to fall from 43 km to 23 km by 2030. Most protected areas likely to be impacted by new urban growth (88%) are in countries of low to moderate income, potentially limiting institutional capacity to adapt to new anthropogenic stresses on protected areas. In short, trends in global ecoregions, rare species, and protected areas suggest localized but significant biodiversity degradation associated with current and upcoming urbanization.     

Global development and the future of the protected area strategy

Land protection has become increasingly common, and global land protection is now greater than 12%. Prediction of future protected area expansion are uncertain, and depend on understanding the factors that have to date explained the historical pattern and geographic variation in protected area (PA) establishment. We test four major perspectives on factors limiting or facilitating PA creation, differentiating between strict PAs and multiple-use PAs where some resource extraction is permitted. Richer countries had a greater amount of land protection and were more likely to create strict PAs, supporting the view of land protection as an economic amenity, although the magnitude of this effect declines in recent decades. There are also significant differences in amount of protection by political structure, with independent countries tending to protect more land, and education, with countries with high levels of primary education tending to protect more. However, countries with substantial previous protection tend to do less protection and create proportionally fewer strict and more multiple-use PAs. Scenarios of future socioeconomic and political conditions suggest that on balance the amount of protection should increase in many countries, driven by economic prosperity, and by 2030 global land protection is forecast to reach 15–29%. The limiting factor in land protection varies among countries, and sub-Saharan African countries in particular will remain a very hard place for land protection because of low per-capita GDP. Overall, however, more land protection may occur in the next 20 years than has occurred in the previous 20 years.     

基于InVEST模型重庆市建设用地扩张的碳储量变化分析

建设用地的扩张是影响陆地生态系统碳储量变化的重要驱动因素。以重庆市为研究区域,基于重庆市土地利用数据、土壤数据、植被数据,从建设用地扩张的视角,采用InVEST模型,结合收集的碳密度数据,对重庆市2000年、2005年及2010年碳储量的变化进行了分析。结果表明:2000-2010年重庆市土地利用变化显著,建设用地是主要的转入者,共增长1 505.58 km²,其中90%以上的区域来自耕地以及阔叶林,造成碳净损失1.796 Mt。2005-2010年重庆市建设用地变化更加剧烈,这期间建设用地共扩张998.19 km²。建设用地主要是由西部中心逐渐向四周扩张,且增长速率加快。建设用地由2000年的598.88 km²增加到2005年的1 097.27 km²,扩张导致总碳储量减少了1 169 982.18 t,其中阔叶林的碳损失达到72%;2010年建设用地增加至2 095.46 km²,占用耕地以及阔叶林是主要的扩张形式,扩张导致总碳储量减少了1 169 982.18 t。可见,建设用地扩张过程中,碳损失的主要来源为耕地及阔叶林,其次是针叶林、草原、草地等。选择固碳能力较弱的裸地与草甸作为建设用地的扩张目标,有利于重庆市碳储量的保护与增长。     

基于Logistic-CA-Markov耦合模型的彬州市LUCC多情景模拟

土地利用变化多情景模拟可为区域的土地规划、生态城市建设和区域生态环境保护提供科学的参考依据。基于彬州市2009年和2019年土地利用数据,运用GIS软件空间分析功能和土地利用动态模型对研究区土地利用变化进行时空分析,从自然因素和社会经济因素中选取7种驱动因子,用Logistic模型进行回归分析,再运用Logistic-CA-Markov耦合模型,以研究区2009年土地利用为基期,模拟2019年土地利用变化并对预测结果精度验证。最后以2019年为基期数据,在自然发展、生态保护和限制城市过度开发3种情景下,预测了2029年研究区土地利用类型的空间格局。结果表明:研究区10年间的土地利用综合动态度为5.57%,土地利用变化显著; 驱动因子的回归分析通过有效性检验,预测2019年土地利用变化的Kappa系数值为0.761 2,预测结果可信。在自然发展情景下,2029年彬州市建设用地面积增长40.54%,耕地和水域面积分别减少27.31%,3.84%,或对研究区的生态平衡造成威胁; 在生态保护和限制城市过度开发两种情景下,建设用地面积得到控制,水域、耕地等生态用地得到保护,有利于彬州市的可持续发展。     

基于PLUS与InVEST模型的内蒙古自治区土地利用变化及碳储量评估

为实现内蒙古自治区的“双碳”目标。根据内蒙古自治区2000年、2010年和2020年土地利用数据(LULC),按照内蒙古自治区“十四五”政策规划，建立自然发展、耕地保护与生态保护3种情景，利用PLUS模型对内蒙古自治区2030年土地利用空间分布进行预测分析，并用InVEST模型对内蒙古自治区不同开发情景下碳储量的变化进行分析。结果表明：(1)2000—2020年间内蒙古地区林地与建设用地面积均有增加，耕地、水域、草地与未利用地面积均呈减少态势，且转移方向上主要表现为耕地转为建设用地。(2)自然发展状态下，草地、耕地、水域及未利用地呈下降趋势，林地及建设用地呈上升趋势；在生态保护状态下，林地、草地和水域面积均比自然开发情景有所增加；耕地保护情景下，耕地面积相较于自然发展情景呈扩张趋势，扩张面积达4.69×10⁴ hm²。(3)2000年、2010年、2020年内蒙古地区碳储量分别达到1.371 7×10¹⁰,1.370 9×10¹⁰,1.370 6×10¹⁰ t,呈逐年减少趋势。...     

Importance of cryptic species for identifying ‘representative’ units of biodiversity for freshwater conservation

Nested systems of biodiversity classification are commonly used for designating protected area networks in terrestrial and marine realms. Whilst terrestrial-style protected areas are largely inappropriate for freshwater systems, the concepts of ‘representative’ biodiversity and ‘complementarity’ can be borrowed for freshwater conservation. Cryptic species are commonly found in freshwater macroinvertebrates and fish, and most have restricted distributions relative to the described conglomerate ‘species’. This indicates that ‘representative’ and therefore ‘complementary’ units of freshwater biodiversity may be smaller than previously appreciated. Using recently detected cryptic species in atyid shrimps from eastern Australia (Atyidae: Paratya australiensis, Caridina mccullochi and C. indistinca), we tested predictions about regional patterns of cryptic assemblage structure, endemism and Phylogenetic Diversity (PD) at the river scale, and discussed their implications for freshwater conservation. Patterns of distribution in these cryptic shrimp species largely corresponded with published distributional patterns of cryptic species in several freshwater fish in eastern Australia, and indicated the presence of four putative ecoregions within a previously recognised freshwater fish province (Eastern Province). However, some rivers had pronounced cryptic endemism, suggesting that rivers may not be ‘representative’ of one another’s biodiversity even within ecoregions. PD and endemism were largely correlated with one another, as endemics typically co-occurred with widespread species at the river scale. This study indicates that cryptic species can contribute to defining patterns of biodiversity at nested spatial scales that may be important for freshwater conservation.     

Species compositional similarity and ecoregions: Do ecoregion boundaries represent zones of high species turnover?

The concept of an ecoregion, a discrete spatial area where species composition is presumed to be relatively homogeneous compared to that between areas, has become an increasingly common conservation tool. We test the effectiveness of one ecoregion delineation (World Wildlife Fund) in capturing patterns of change in species composition of birds, mammals, and trees across the United States (excluding Hawaii) and Canada, and describe the extent to which each ecoregion boundary is concurrent with relatively large changes in species composition. Digitized range maps were used to record presence/absence in 50 × 50 km equal-area grid cells covering the study area. Jaccard’s index of similarity was calculated for all pairs of cells in the same or adjacent ecoregions. The average rate at which similarity declined with geographic distance was calculated using pairs of cells within the same ecoregion (intra-ecoregion turnover) or using pairs of cells in adjacent ecoregions (inter-ecoregion turnover). The intra-ecoregion rate varies widely among ecoregions and between taxa, with trees having a faster rate of similarity decline than mammals or birds. For all three species groups, most ecoregion boundaries have similar rates across them (inter-ecoregion) than that within each adjacent ecoregion (intra-ecoregion), with the exception of zones of transition between biomes and major geographical features. Although the ecoregion concept is useful for many other conservation applications, the lack of systematic, high turnover rates along ecoregion boundaries suggests that ecoregions should not be used as a quantitative basis for delineating geographic areas of a particular taxonomic group.     

川西高原土地利用碳储量估算及多情景预测

[目的]区域碳储量与土地利用密切相关。在“双碳”目标下,从碳储量视角开展重点区域土地利用变化预测研究,对协调与优化区域土地利用格局、提高区域生态系统未来固碳潜力具有重要参考价值。[方法]以川西高原为研究区,以2000年、2010年和2020年土地利用为数据源,预测不同情景下2030年土地利用,结合修正的土地利用碳密度数据和InVEST模型估算区域碳储量变化。[结果](1)从各地类相对研究区的面积占比变化看,2000—2020年草地从65.20%逐步缩减到63.65%,林地从31.73%不断扩张到32.92%,未利用地先减后增且净增0.57%,水域和耕地先增后减均净减0.11%,湿地持续增加,共净增0.07%;研究区2000年、2010年、2020年碳储量分别为24.26×10⁸,24.29×10⁸,24.27×10⁸ t,呈先增后减趋势。(2)与2020年相比,2030年自然发展情景下碳储量减少3.19×10⁵ t,在耕地保护情景、生态保护情景、耕地生态联合保护情景下将分别固碳4.29×10     

Establishment of protected areas in different ecoregions, ecosystems, and diversity hotspots under successive political systems

Protected areas are valuable tools for nature conservation but the effectiveness of reserve networks must be monitored continuously. Knowing the history of the establishment of protected areas can help to improve future conservation. We explore how different ecoregions, ecosystems and diversity hotspots have been incorporated in protected areas in Estonia during the last century. We found that the average rate of establishment of protected areas has been surprisingly constant despite profound changes in political systems. However, establishment of protected areas has varied regionally; an agricultural region in south-east Estonia has seen less protection, partly due to lower biodiversity. Wetland ecosystems were initially more placed under protection, whereas recently semi-natural grasslands have gained more attention. In contrast, farmland is under-protected. Surprisingly, biodiversity hotspots were no more protected than the national average. We consider how the development of a protected area network has been influenced by individual persons and public opinion under successive political systems. We suggest that simultaneous gap analysis of ecoregions, ecosystems and diversity hotspots provides a more complete picture than examining a single aspect. Therefore this study can be used as a model for other regions.     

基于生物多样性保护的曹妃甸新区城镇用地规划研究

随着我国经济的高速发展,用地矛盾越来越突出,土地生态安全面临着严峻挑战。如何在土地生态安全的状态下实现城镇用地的有序扩展是解决这一挑战的重要途径。以曹妃甸新区为例,以生物多样性保护为目标,运用GIS空间分析技术,建立地表景观类型最小阻力面和“源”间生态廊道,确定了关键战略点,最终构建生物多样性保护安全格局。在此基础上,结合基本农田保护规划,提出城镇空间扩展的优化战略。研究结果显示,运用景观安全格局理论能更好地完善原有规划的不足,在保障城镇发展水平的同时协调各类用地之间的冲突,为曹妃甸新区城镇用地可持续扩展提供理论支撑和技术支持。     

耕地保护对生态系统水源涵养功能的影响——以武汉市为例

耕地保护是我国粮食安全的根本保障。然而,在快速城市化背景下,耕地保护导致生态用地加速流失造成对生态系统服务功能的影响往往被忽略。以武汉市为例,采用模型模拟的方法,利用基于元胞自动机的土地利用变化模型——LANDSCAPE模型设定严格、适度耕地保护情景,进而基于InVEST模型定量评估耕地保护对生态系统水源涵养功能的影响,为科学认识耕地保护政策的实施对生态系统服务功能的影响提供新的视角。结果表明:（1）严格、适度耕地保护情景下武汉市2020年生态系统水源涵养功能存在显著差异。相较于适度耕地保护情景,严格耕地保护情景下,位于武汉市东北地区的低水源涵养区分布范围明显增多,高水源涵养区分布明显较少;（2）在水源涵养总量方面,严格耕地保护情景下的水源涵养总量为4.33×10⁸ m³,适度耕地保护情景下的水源涵养量为4.58×10⁸ m³,两者差异显著。（3）严格、适度耕地保护情景中草地、林地、水体等生态用地的水源涵养总量分别为1.06×10⁸ m³,1.27×10⁸ m³。其中林地水源涵养量最高,水体、草地次之。     

GEE联合多源数据的西安市土地利用时空格局及驱动力分析

近十年来,西安市经济快速发展,人地矛盾日益突出,开展西安市土地利用时空演变及驱动因素研究,对促进土地资源优化配置及生态环境可持续发展具有重要意义。该研究利用谷歌云计算平台（Google Earth Engine,GEE）在长时序分析中所具有的运算处理效率高、多源数据融合便捷、可有效降低云影响等独特优势,联合Landsat TM/OLI光学影像和PALSAR雷达影像,构建基于光谱、地形、纹理和后向散射特征的分类特征集,采用随机森林（Random Forest,RF）算法实现2010、2015和2019年西安市土地利用快速分类,分析土地利用格局时空变化规律,并利用地理探测器从自然和社会两方面探讨土地利用格局变化的驱动机制。结果表明：1）2010、2015和2019年西安市土地利用RF分类效果良好,精度较高,总体精度分别为92.30%、86.66%和90.78%,对应Kappa系数分别为0.89、0.81和0.88。2）西安市主要土地利用类型为林草地和耕地。近十年来,耕地面积大幅减少,以主城区外围最为显著;建设用地剧烈扩张,以中北部地区最为典型,大量耕地为建设用地所取代;林草地先减后增,在中南部及东部地区变化明显;水域和未利用地呈现逐年渐减的特征。3）地形、温度和降雨等自然因素是土地利用格局变化的基本控制因素,工业生产活动对西安市土地利用变化具有重要影响,且解释力不断增大,人口解释力先增后减,地形、人口和经济等因素的交互作用影响土地利用总体格局。基于GEE联合多源遥感数据,采用RF分类和地理探测器分析能够有效反映土地利用时空变化格局及其驱动机制,可为城市土地资源规划管理提供科学依据。     

Methodological considerations in reserve system selection: A case study of Malagasy lemurs

Although data quality and weighting decisions impact the outputs of reserve selection algorithms, these factors have not been closely studied. We examine these methodological issues in the use of reserve selection algorithms by comparing: (1) quality of input data and (2) use of different weighting methods for prioritizing among species. In 2003, the government of Madagascar, a global biodiversity hotspot, committed to tripling the size of its protected area network to protect 10% of the country’s total land area. We apply the Zonation reserve selection algorithm to distribution data for 52 lemur species to identify priority areas for the expansion of Madagascar’s reserve network. We assess the similarity of the areas selected, as well as the proportions of lemur ranges protected in the resulting areas when different forms of input data were used: extent of occurrence versus refined extent of occurrence. Low overlap between the areas selected suggests that refined extent of occurrence data are highly desirable, and to best protect lemur species, we recommend refining extent of occurrence ranges using habitat and altitude limitations. Reserve areas were also selected for protection based on three different species weighting schemes, resulting in marked variation in proportional representation of species among the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species extinction risk categories. This result demonstrates that assignment of species weights influences whether a reserve network prioritizes maximizing overall species protection or maximizing protection of the most threatened species.     

Status of the protected areas of the Central African Republic

The Central African Republic (CAR) has made an impressive commitment to biodiversity conservation, with a total of 15 protected areas covering about 10.9% of the country. This study critically examines the status of these protected areas in light of their potential for long-term protection of biodiversity. First of all, the protected area system does not protect a representative sample of the ecoregions of the CAR. Even more important is the fact that only 32% of the protected areas are adequately managed. Law-enforcement is inadequate, and poaching poses the largest threat to biodiversity conservation. Given the dim economic prospects, the CAR will need continued financial as well as technical assistance to deal with protected area management. Experiences have shown that such intervention can make a difference. However more attention needs to be given to capacity building, long-term funding mechanisms, regional collaboration and political commitment to make such interventions sustainable in the long-term.     

基于PLUS和InVEST模型的合肥市生态系统碳储量时空演变特征

[目的]为寻求“双碳”目标导向下的合肥市城市发展新方案。[方法]依据合肥市2000—2020年5期土地利用数据,在合肥市国土空间规划指引下,运用PLUS模型模拟得到2035年合肥市土地利用时空演变规律,耦合InVEST模型探究多情景下合肥市碳储量时空变化特征,并进一步挖掘土地综合利用程度对碳储量的影响。[结果](1)2000—2020年合肥市土地利用变化特征主要表现为耕地、林地减少,其中耕地为建设用地扩增主要来源。自然发展和农田资源保护情景的土地变化规律大致相同,主要表现为耕地、林地、水体减少;绿色汇增城市发展情景下,林地相比其余2个情景面积由减少转为增加。(2)2000—2020年合肥市碳储量逐年递减,其中2005—2010年碳损失最为剧烈。到2035年,自然发展情景、农田资源保护情景、绿色汇增城市发展情景碳储量分别为138.96×10⁶,140.13×10⁶,139.81×10⁶ t。农田资源保护情景下,碳储量明显增加区域最低,建设用地扩张减缓;绿色汇增城市发展情景下,林地由碳损失转为碳固持,是最具固碳潜力的发展趋势...     

The efficacy of Romania’s protected areas network in conserving biodiversity

Romania’s protected areas network currently covers 19.29% of the national territory, a significant increase from the 4.1% protected prior to 1989. The increase occurred over the past 20 years with the creation of 27 National and Natural Parks, and recently of 382 protected areas as part of the pan-European Natura 2000 network. Considering the recent increase in number and area of protected lands, we investigated two core topics critical to achieving conservation goals: (1) conservation value and (2) resources for conservation. The newly created Natura 2000 sites overlapped 96.19% of the existing protected areas network, generating up to three different protection statuses for some sites. Conservation goals were often unclear, as the focus switched to protecting species and habitats of European-level concern. Despite the fivefold increase in protected area, many ecoregions were poorly represented in the new system. Planning for conservation neither involved the local communities nor utilized principles for spatial prioritization. Over 80% of the species of European conservation concern were included in at least one protected area, but plants and invertebrates were underrepresented. Administrative bodies were generally under-staffed and poorly financed, conditions that were reflected in a poor enforcement and implementation of conservation goals. Overall, Romania shares many conservation concerns with other Eastern and Central European countries. A regional approach to conserving biodiversity based on spatial prioritization, rigorous scientific documentation, and social acceptance is needed for the Natura 2000 network to achieve its goals.     

中国丹霞赤水世界自然遗产景观格局时空演变及驱动因素分析

为了研究中国丹霞赤水世界自然遗产的景观格局,利用GIS,ENVI和景观格局分析软件FRAGSTATS,分析了遗产地及缓冲区2001年、2010年、2016年3个关键时期的景观格局及其演变规律,揭示了中国丹霞赤水世界自然遗产不同发展阶段景观格局变化特征,进一步探讨了景观格局变化的影响因素。研究结果表明:（1）研究区自2001年以来,各类景观均处于动态变迁过程,林地景观为研究区的优势景观,一直占研究区整体面积的80%以上,16年间,林地、灌丛、建筑用地、裸地和水体的面积净增加,耕地面积净减少;（2）景观动态变化度在2001—2010年较大,林地景观面积比例增加了6.98%,耕地面积比例减少了8.4%,面积减少了近一半,有44%的耕地面积和64.35%灌丛面积转入林地景观,景观格局破碎化程度大幅下降;（3）2010—2016年景观动态变化度相对较小,林地面积比例下降了1.22%,耕地面积比例增加了1%,建筑面积持续增加;建设用地转出率最高,其次是裸地,景观类型的丰富度有所上升,景观格局破碎化程度稍有加深;（4）除了生态系统的自然演化外,退耕还林政策、城镇一体化建设、高速交通建设是研究区景观格局变化的主要驱动因素,旅游增长和开发对研究区的景观格局影响相对较小。     

High human density in the irreplaceable sites for African vertebrates conservation

The identification of priority sites that ensure the achievement of conservation goals is key to direct conservation efforts. An estimation of the level of vulnerability of each priority area allows the identification of sites that need urgent conservation action. We present a systematic reserve selection for 1654 African mammals and amphibians that uses habitat suitability models as estimates of the area occupied by each species. These are based on the geographic range and habitat preferences for each species, which we collected in the framework of the World Conservation Union (IUCN) Global Amphibian Assessment and IUCN Global Mammal Assessment. Our results showed that in addition to existing protected areas, approximately 2.8 million km² of land is irreplaceable to achieve the protection of 10% of the area occupied by all amphibians and mammals. This figure is higher than previous estimates from other studies. Most irreplaceable sites are located in the sub-Saharan region. More than half (55%) of the irreplaceable sites have high human population density; for only 17% the human population density is low. African amphibians and mammals have therefore to be conserved in densely populated areas where innovative management policies will be required to accommodate conservation successfully.