Decision support framework for assessment of non-point-source pollution of groundwater in large irrigation projects

Agriculture is the main non-point polluter of groundwater in irrigated areas as fertilizers and other agrochemicals are the main contaminants in the water that drains out of the root zone to recharge the aquifer. Nitrates from fertilizers, dissolved in percolation losses from rice fields, are the source of pollution considered. The concentration of nitrates in the percolated water depends on the distributed field water and nitrogen balances over the area. Its concentration in the groundwater depends on the total recharge, pollution loading, groundwater flow and solute transport within the aquifer. The development and application of a GIS based decision support framework that integrates field scale models of these processes for assessment of non-point-source pollution of groundwater in canal irrigation project areas is presented. The GIS is used for representing the spatial variations in input data over the area and map the output of the recharge and nitrogen balance models. The latter are used to provide the spatially distributed recharge and pollutant load inputs to the distributed groundwater flow and transport models, respectively. Alternate strategies for water and fertilizer use can be evaluated using this framework to ensure long-term sustainability of productive agriculture in large irrigation projects. The development and application of the framework is illustrated by taking a case study of a large canal irrigation system in India.     

中国农业机械总动力预测分析——基于ARIMA模型

运用我国1978-2005年的统计资料,建立了中国农业机械总动力的ARIMA模型,并进行了预测分析.结果表明:ARIMA模型不但适合于中国农业机械总动力的非平稳时间序列特点,且预测效果比较理想;ARIMA(2,2,2)模型预测1982-2005年数值与实际数值之间的平均相对误差仅为1.009%,可用于中国农业机械总动力的预测与分析.     

Evaluating strategies for improved water use in spring wheat with CERES

More efficient use of water in agricultural systems is widely needed. However, most irrigated systems are characterized by heterogeneous climate and soil conditions that interact strongly with irrigation management, making optimal irrigation decisions difficult to achieve. Here we investigated the impact of reduced irrigations on spring wheat yields in the Yaqui Valley of Mexico, a region experiencing increased water scarcity. Two years of field experiments containing three irrigation treatments each were used to evaluate the CERES-wheat crop model, with good agreement between observed and modeled yields. The model was then used in a sensitivity analysis whereby seven irrigation strategies were applied across a range of possible soil and climatic conditions. Results indicated that yield losses from reduced irrigations depend greatly on year, corresponding to large variations in rainfall between growing seasons. Estimates of the best timing strategy for a given number of irrigations were more robust with respect to climate variability. Soils also exhibited a strong interaction with irrigation, with the difference between initial soil moisture and wilting point deemed particularly important in this system. The optimal economic strategy was determined for each hypothetical soil based on the observed historical distribution of growing season climatic conditions. The results of this study demonstrate the need to consider soil and climate variability when interpreting experimental results, and the ability of the CERES model to serve this need by quantifying the relative importance of different heterogeneous factors.     

Artificial neural network and time series models for predicting soil salt and water content

Volumetric water content of a silt loam soil (fluvo-aquic soil) in North China Plain was measured in situ by L-520 neutron probe (made in China) at three depths in the crop rootzone during a lysimeter experiment from 2001 to 2006. The electrical conductivity of the soil water (EC_sw) was measured by salinity sensors buried in the soil during the same period at 10, 20, 45 and 70 cm depth below soil surface. These data were used to test two mathematical procedures to predict water content and soil water salinity at depths of interest: all the available data were divided into training and testing datasets, then back propagation neural networks (BPNNs) were optimized by sensitivity analysis to minimizing the performance error, and then were finally used to predict soil water and EC_sw. In order to meet with the prerequisite of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, firstly, original soil water content and EC_sw time series were likewise transformed to obtain stationary series. Subsequently, the transformed time series were used to conduct analysis in frequency domain to obtain the parameters of the ARIMA models for the purposes of using the ARIMA model to predict soil water content and EC_sw. Based on the statistical parameters used to assess model performance, the BPNN model performed better in predicting the average water content than the ARIMA model: coefficient of determination (R²) = 0.8987, sum of squares error (SSE) = 0.000009, and mean absolute error (MAE) = 0.000967 for BPNN as compared to R² = 0.8867, SSE = 0.000043, MAE = 0.002211 for ARIMA. The BPNN model also performed better than the ARIMA model in predicting average EC_sw of soil profile. However, the ARIMA model performed better than the BPNN models in predicting soil water content at the depth of 20 cm and EC_sw at the depth of 10 cm below soil surface. Overall, the model developed by BPNN network showed its advantage of less parameter input, nonlinearity, simple model structure and good prediction of soil EC_sw and water content, and it gave an alternative method in forecasting soil water and salt dynamics to those based on deterministic models based on Richards’ equation and Darcy's law provided climatic, cropping patterns, salinity of the irrigation water and irrigation management are very similar from one year to the next.     

防渗渠道输水损失的估算

渠道防渗已成为我国大型灌区改造的主要手段 ,以提高水资源的利用率 ;如何估算防渗渠道的水量损失 ,已成为评价灌区改造的重要技术问题。在概括渠道输水损失的各种估算理论和方法的基础上 ,揭示了流量指数型估计式 σ=A/ Qm(% )对于防渗和非防渗渠道都具有广泛的适用性。并基于全国范围内的实测资料统计分析 ,对影响估计式参数的因素及规律性进行了深入分析 ,建议对防渗或非防渗渠道的渠道渗漏损失均采用该估计式 ,防渗渠道的参数可通过现场静水试验求得 ,或直接对透水性系数进行折减。     

基于水量平衡下的灌区用水计划编制方法综述

为了精准指导农田灌溉,合理优化渠系输配水,提高水资源的利用率、灌区的管理水平和总效益,对灌区用水计划的编制方法展开了理论研究.将用水计划的编制过程概括为实时灌溉预报和渠系配水两部分,分别进行归纳整理和分析.在对国内灌区用水计划的编制方式进行了解的基础上,着重介绍了利用土壤水分平衡方程进行实时灌溉预报的方法,总结各参数预测值和计算修正值的获取方法,分析对比各方法的适用范围,提炼普遍灌区实时灌溉预报中适用的方法.为了优化田间渠系配水次序和配水量,以保证作物得到及时有效灌溉,归纳总结了国内灌区常用的渠系配水模型,论述了常见的目标函数及相关约束的选取原则,并指出其局限性和可能的发展趋势.研究结果可为各灌区进行实时灌溉预报和建立优化配水模型提供借鉴与参考.     

Comparison between the efficiencies of surface and pressurized irrigation systems in Jordan

A study was carried out to determine the efficiencies of water use in irrigation in the Jordan Valley Project. The study aimed to evaluate, the overall or project efficiency (E_p) which includes: the irrigation system efficiency, being the combined conveyance and distribution efficiency (E_s); and the field application efficiency (E_a). Evaluation of these efficiencies includes the comparison of open canals with surface irrigation versus pressurized pipes with sprinkler or drip irrigation systems. Data was collected from different sources to achieve the above mentioned purposes, beside the field experiments which were carried out specially for this study.It was found that the overall or project efficiency (E_p) for open surface canal with surface irrigation under citrus was 53%. While it was 42% under vegetables. Whereas E_p for pressurized pipe systems was 68%, and 70% for sprinkler and drip irrigation methods, respectively.The E_s for an open canal, (King Abdullah Canal, KAC) was 65%. While it was 77% for pressurized pipe projects during 1989–1991. Concerning the E_a, it was found to be equal to 82% and 64%, for surface irrigation on citrus and vegetables, respectively. Whereas it was 88% for citrus under sprinkler, and 91% for vegetables under drip irrigation. These values for the field application efficiency are acceptable according to Finkle (1982). The low E_s value for the canal is due, mainly, to high evaporation and seepage, unreported deliveries, and unavoidable measurement losses. Whereas, in pressurized pipe projects, it is due to the unreported deliveries, unavoidable measurement losses, and leakage.     

基于条件植被温度指数的夏玉米生长季干旱预测研究

为验证条件植被温度指数(VTCI)在夏玉米生长季干旱预测中的适用性,以河北中部平原为研究区,应用求和自回归移动平均(ARIMA)模型及季节性求和自回归移动平均(SARIMA)模型,对该地区VTCI时间序列数据进行分析建模预测。首先基于49个气象站点所在像素的VTCI时间序列数据,选取不同长度时间序列建立ARIMA模型,并分析时间序列长度与预测精度间关系,以期为时间序列长度选择提供依据;然后选择理想长度的VTCI时间序列数据,分别建立ARIMA模型和SARIMA模型,用于研究区域2017年夏玉米生长季VTCI预测,并分析评价两模型预测精度;最后采用性能较好的ARIMA模型逐像素建模预测,得到2016-2018年9月上旬至下旬VTCI预测结果。结果表明:基于ARIMA模型的VTCI预测精度与时间序列长度未呈现明显的相关关系,但随时间序列长度增加,模型预测精度逐渐趋于稳定;ARIMA模型对干旱的预测精度高于基于SARIMA模型,其1步、2步、3步VTCI预测结果均方根误差较SARIMA模型分别降低0. 06、0. 07、0. 09;ARIMA模型在不同年份夏玉米生长季VTCI1~3步的预测精度稳定性较好,2016-2018年1步、2步和3步VTCI预测结果绝对误差绝对值大于0. 20的像素平均百分比分别为5. 84%、6. 38%、8. 72%。     

井渠结合灌区地下水动态预报及适宜渠井用水比分析

以陕西泾惠渠井渠结合灌区为例,根据灌区多年降雨量、渠灌用水量、井灌用水量资料及渠井灌溉用水量的比值,利用多元非线性相关分析法建立了灌区地下水动态预报的数学模型。对减少渠灌用水量增加井灌用水量、增加渠灌用水量减少井灌用水量、渠灌与井灌用水量合理比值3种情况下地下水动态进行了预测,提出了适宜的渠井用水比例。为灌区地下水合理开采和灌溉水资源优化配置提供依据。     

基于改进多目标决策模型的大桥水库灌区渠系自适应规划方法

提出基于改进多目标决策模型的大桥水库灌区渠系自适应规划方法,合理规划大桥水库灌区渠系配水,提高水资源利用率,降低无效弃水以及对生态环境的影响。以配水结束后灌区各渠系缺水量、渠道输水损失量以及农作物生产带来的灰水足迹三者最小为大桥水库灌区渠系规划多目标决策函数,以渠道输水能力、水量和时间为约束条件,构建大桥水库灌区渠系规划的多目标决策模型;以栅格法构建路径规划的运行环境,通过移动几率优化、信息素挥发系数自适应调整两方面改进蚁群算法,通过改进蚁群算法寻优获取渠道缺水量、输水损失量、灰水足迹最小的水库灌区渠系规划结果。实验证明：该方法可以有效规划大桥水库灌区渠系的水资源,规划后的灌区渠系在缺水量、渠道输水损失量以及灰水足迹方面都有较好的表现,且效率高、应用性强。     

渠道防渗工程技术

渠系输水损失占渠首总引水量的50％,渠道防渗是我国目前应用最广泛的节水工程技术。本文从渠道的断面形式、防渗结构及材料等方面作了探讨,并介绍了特种土基渠道对渠床的处理办法。     

Simple microirrigation techniques for improving irrigation efficiency on vegetable gardens

Microirrigation techniques can be used to improve irrigation efficiency on vegetable gardens by reducing soil evaporation and drainage losses and by creating and maintaining soil moisture conditions that are favourable to crop growth. Water balance experiments in Zimbabwe showed that over 50% of the water applied as surface irrigation on traditional irrigated gardens can be lost as soil evaporation. This result gives an indication of the potential improvement in irrigation efficiency that can be achieved by adopting irrigation methods that reduce soil evaporation at the same time as minimising losses due to drainage and canopy interception. During the period 1985 to 1995, irrigation trials and experiments were carried out in south-east Zimbabwe and northern Sri Lanka with the main aim of comparing and quantifying the benefits of using simple microirrigation techniques on traditional vegetable gardens. This paper reviews the results of these trials and experiments. Microirrigation techniques that were evaluated included low-head drip irrigation, pitcher irrigation and subsurface irrigation using clay pipes. Of these methods, subsurface irrigation using clay pipes was found to be particularly effective in improving yields, crop quality and water use efficiency as well as being cheap, simple and easy to use. The comparative advantages of subsurface irrigation were maintained for a range of crops grown under different climatic conditions. Good results were also obtained with subsurface irrigation when irrigation was carried out using with poor quality irrigation water.     

灌溉渠系水利用系数的分析与计算

灌溉渠系的布置形式一般可分为串联渠系、等效并联渠系和非等效并联渠系 ,对这 3种灌溉渠系水利用系数进行了理论研究。用实例验证了上述的理论分析。研究成果可应用于实际灌溉工程     

配水渠道轮灌组合优化模型与引水时间的均一化处理

渠系配水是一个复杂的动态过程,建立了配水渠道流量优化调度０－１线性整数规划模型,并提出了各轮灌组引水时间的一化处理方法,使各轮灌组在同一引水时间结束灌溉,从而可使配水渠道进水闸能在同一时间关闭。模型适用于支渠以下各级配水渠道在来水流量确定,分水渠道流量彼此相同且按“定流量、变历时”方式轮灌时的优化配水方案决策。     

Quantitative analysis and forecasting of monthly prices of lumber and flooring products

Four time series of monthly prices of oak and softwood lumber and flooring are analysed using the autoregressive integrated moving average technique. The principles of the method are exposed and one model is estimated for each time series. The steps in model formulation, estimation and diagnostic checking are described in detail for the series of oak lumber prices. All series are stationary after a first order differencing. The behaviour of monthly prices of softwood products is well described by pure autoregressive models while the oak product prices require full autoregressive integrated moving average models. The models obtained generate one-month forecasts which are significantly more accurate than those obtained from a no-change extrapolarive model, except in the case of softwood flooring prices for which the behaviour is close to a random walk. Six-month forecasts are computed for each series with corresponding confidence intervals. An adaptive forecasting procedure is used to revise multiple-month forecasts after the errors on the first month forecast have been observed.     

A study of losses from field channels under arid region conditions

In arid regions, water losses from unlined small field channels are usually high due to seepage and evaporation from open surfaces. These losses are often neglected by many project planners and engineers. A theoretical analysis has been developed to modify the equation usually used to determine the water losses based on the ponding method, where the channel longitudinal slope was considered in the analysis. A field investigation has been carried out in sandy soil to determine and evaluate the water losses for three different types of channels. They are: earthen-uncompacted channel, compacted channel bed and channel lined by jute mats coated with bitumen emulsion on both faces. The last two cases are relatively low-cost, need less skillful labour than lining by cement and are more suitable for temporary field channels. Manning's coefficient was determined for each case. The results show that the process of compating the channel bed reduced the rate of seepage by a considerable value and that lining of field channels by prefabricated bitumen jute mats caused a significant reduction in the seepage rate. The results also show that the evaporation from open surfaces caused a considerable loss and should be considered when studying water losses from irrigation channels in arid regions. Abbreviations A = channel surface area ⋅ A_c = channel cross section-area ⋅ b = channel bed width ⋅ d = observed difference in Class-A pan ⋅ h₁ = original water depth in the canal ⋅ h₂ = canal water depth after a certain time ⋅ k = constant ⋅ L = canal length ⋅ n = Manning's coefficient ⋅ p = average wetted perimeter ⋅ q_evap = evaporation losses rate ⋅ q_s = canal seepage losses rate ⋅ q_t = total losses from the canal ⋅ Q = canal discharge ⋅ R = penetration resistance ⋅ R_h = hydraulic radius of the channel ⋅ s = channel longitudinal slope ⋅ t = time ⋅ V_e = volume of water lost by evaporation ⋅ v_m = channel mean velocity ⋅ v_s = channel surface velocity ⋅ V_s = volume of water lost by seepage ⋅ V_t = total volume of water lost ⋅ w = water surface width of the canal ⋅ y₁ = downstream water depth at time zero ⋅ y₂ = downstream water depth after a time t ⋅ z = canal side slope Received: 6 October 1995     

河套灌区渠系优化配水模型应用研究

优化渠系配水过程是缓解灌区水资源压力、实现农业高效节水的重要举措.以河套灌区总干渠、干渠两级渠系作为研究对象,将水流过渡平稳和渠道渗漏量最小作为优化目标,建立渠系优化配水模型,采用回溯搜索算法(BSA)、多目标粒子群算法(MOPSO)以及向量评估遗传算法(VEGA)进行求解.结果显示,BSA,MOPSO,VEGA这3种算法所求的配水时间分别为30.96,11.65,29.96 d; 3种算法所得的阀门开启时间点的偏态系数分别为-0.048,0.068,0.566,表明BSA和MOPSO更能保证灌溉水在渠道运输中的稳定性.考虑渠首水位季节性变化对灌区引水时间产生的限制作用,BSA和MOPSO分别更适用于渠首引水量较少、充足的情况.考虑配水时间的集中程度以及干渠的地理位置分布,BSA和MOPSO更有利于实施分区管理措施.     

Prospects and problems of irrigation development in Sahelian and sub-Saharan Africa

Although many different definitions of irrigation are being used, the need for this way of agricultural intensification is rapidly increasing as the population dependent on agriculture has in many countries largely surpassed the carrying capacity of rainfed systems. However, unfortunately many donor-sponsored irrigation projects in Africa disappoint because they are generally conceived with a too short time perspective and they suffer from a series of negative characteristics. Generally there is insufficient farmer involvement in all phases of the projects, which are formulated in isolation from existing farming systems, are capital-intensive and require high-input levels (from elsewhere), focus on the hardware, neglect agricultural production and institutional weaknesses, and cannot put up the money needed to be run. Therefore, sustainability should be the main point of orientation. Important steps towards it consist in choosing activities and forms of irrigation that fit well in the farming systems, are attractive to farmers, and can be run to a very large extent by themselves without external assistance. Marketing and production support services should be included in analysis and programmes of assistance, together with institutional strengthening and adequate land tenure arrangements. Governments' involvement in operation and management can often be reduced, and the same goes for the role of the irrigation organisations. Donor involvement should be more flexible, have a longer time-perspective, be less guided by expected economic rates of return and concentrate more on how to ensure increased sustainability of irrigation projects for both the country and the farmers.     

引黄灌区纯井灌水均衡及效益分析

灌溉模式多是井渠双配套,导致工程重叠,土地占压多,引沙量大,且浪费有限的水资源。为实行开源节流,地表水与地下水联合应用,在引黄灌区部分区域开展纯井灌溉是非常必要的。茌平县阁三里位于位山引黄灌区中游,周围引黄条件好,却一直利用地下水实行纯井灌溉。该井灌区(以下简称试区)拥有丰富的地下水动态及水文地质资料,开展阁三里纯井灌水均衡及效益研究,对于指导当前水资源合理调度及工程规划具有重要意义。该文通过系统地分析研究,证明在引黄灌区内部分区域开展纯井灌是必要的、合理的、成功的。     

渠床土壤入渗率的空间变异性及合理取样规则

本文根据渠道渗漏损失计算目标的需要和实际条件,将线性地质统计学应用于一维空间,探讨渠床土壤稳定入渗率K_s及Philip数学模型的入渗参数A、S的空间变异性;并将地质统计理论应用于合理采样数目的评估,以补充经典统计理论的某些不足。本文对灌溉工程中一维空间变异性的大比尺应用作了分析研究。至于一维空间点的Kriging最优插值方法与插值条件将另文探讨。