Prediction of bluetongue vector distribution in Europe and north Africa using satellite imagery

Bluetongue is an infectious, non-contagious arboviral disease thought to infect all known ruminant species. Since 1998, an unprecedented epizootic of the disease has occurred in the Mediterranean region, resulting in the deaths of over 800,000 sheep to date. Bluetongue virus (BTV) is transmitted by biting midges of which one species, Culicoides imicola, is the major vector in the old world. C. imicola was trapped for 2 years at 87 sites across Portugal and models were developed for predicting the presence and abundance of the midge at these sites. Discriminant analysis was used to identify the best models from 40 temporally Fourier-processed 1 km spatial resolution remotely-sensed variables. The best models correctly predicted presence and absence at 83 of the 87 sites, and abundance at 76 sites. The models were then used to predict C. imicola presence and abundance elsewhere across Europe and north Africa. C. imicola was predicted to be present and in high abundance at the majority of areas affected in the recent bluetongue epizootic, including the Balearics, Sardinia, Corsica, Sicily, areas of mainland Italy, large areas of Greece, western Turkey and northern Algeria and Tunisia.     

Estimating front-wave velocity of infectious diseases: a simple, efficient method applied to bluetongue

ABSTRACT: Understanding the spatial dynamics of an infectious disease is critical when attempting to predict where and how fast the disease will spread. We illustrate an approach using a trend-surface analysis (TSA) model combined with a spatial error simultaneous autoregressive model (SARerr model) to estimate the speed of diffusion of bluetongue (BT), an infectious disease of ruminants caused by bluetongue virus (BTV) and transmitted by Culicoides. In a first step to gain further insight into the spatial transmission characteristics of BTV serotype 8, we used 2007-2008 clinical case reports in France and TSA modelling to identify the major directions and speed of disease diffusion. We accounted for spatial autocorrelation by combining TSA with a SARerr model, which led to a trend SARerr model. Overall, BT spread from north-eastern to south-western France. The average trend SARerr-estimated velocity across the country was 5.6 km/day. However, velocities differed between areas and time periods, varying between 2.1 and 9.3 km/day. For more than 83% of the contaminated municipalities, the trend SARerr-estimated velocity was less than 7 km/day. Our study was a first step in describing the diffusion process for BT in France. To our knowledge, it is the first to show that BT spread in France was primarily local and consistent with the active flight of Culicoides and local movements of farm animals. Models such as the trend SARerr models are powerful tools to provide information on direction and speed of disease diffusion when the only data available are date and location of cases.     

基于航空高光谱影像的青海省玛多县高寒草原景观格局特征分析

景观生态学在草地资源管理、生态安全评价方面已得到广泛应用,开展不同尺度的景观格局特征分析对景观生态过程研究十分重要。获取不同覆盖度草地的景观格局特征是青藏高原草地退化等生态系统演变研究的基础工作之一。从高分辨率遥感的角度提取中小尺度上草地景观格局特征,是开展景观格局尺度分析的有益尝试。本研究通过高空间分辨率的PIS航空高光谱影像,分析不同草地类型的光谱特征差异,开展玛多实验区草地类型精细分类,并从景观异质性、景观优势度和景观破碎度3个景观层次,分析米级分辨率下不同覆盖度高寒草原样地的景观格局特征差异,发现高寒草原样地的景观优势度、景观异质性与草地覆盖度分别呈正、负相关,而破碎度指标则随着高寒草原草地覆盖度的降低出现先升高后降低的现象。     

Prediction of areas around the Mediterranean at risk of bluetongue by modelling the distribution of its vector using satellite imaging.

Bluetongue is an infectious disease of ruminants caused by a virus transmitted by biting midges, one species of which, Culicoides imicola, is the major vector in the Old World. Following an epizootic of African horse sickness,a related disease, in Iberia and Morocco between 1987 and 1991, C imicola was trapped for two years at 44 sites in the affected region and models were developed for predicting the abundance of C imicola at these sites. Discriminant analysis was applied to identify the best model of three levels of abundance from 40 Fourier-processed remotely sensed variables and a digital elevation model. The best model correctly predicted the abundance level at 41 of the 44 sites. The single most important variable was the phase of the annual cycle of the normalised difference vegetation index. The model was used to predict the abundances of C imicola elsewhere around the Mediterranean and predicted high levels of abundance in many areas recently affected by bluetongue, including the Balearics, Sardinia, Sicily, eastern Greece, western Turkey, Tunisia and northern Algeria. The model suggests that eastern Spain, the island of Ibiza, the provinces of Lazio and Puglia in Italy, the Peloponnese and parts of northern Algeria and Libya may be at risk of bluetongue in 2001.     

A stochastic predictive model for the natural spread of bluetongue

In recent years the vector-borne diseases (VBD) are (re)-emerging and spreading across the world having a profound impact on human and veterinary health, ecology, socio-economics and disease management. Arguably the best-documented example of veterinary importance is the recent twofold invasion of bluetongue (BT) in Europe. Much attention has been devoted to derive presence-absence habitat distribution models and to model transmission through direct contact. Limited research has focused on the dynamic modelling of wind mediated BT spread. This paper shows the results of a stochastic predictive model used to assess the spread of bluetongue by vectors considering both wind-independent and wind-mediated movement of the vectors. The model was parameterised using epidemiological knowledge from the BTV8 epidemic in 2006/2007 and the BTV1 epidemic in 2008 in South-France. The model correctly reflects the total surface of the infected zone (overall accuracy=0.77; sensitivity=0.94; specificity=0.65) whilst slightly overestimating spatial case density. The model was used operationally in spring 2009 to predict further spread of BTV1. This allowed veterinary officers in Belgium to decide whether there was a risk of introduction of BTV1 from France into Belgium and thus, whether there was a need for vaccination. Given the far distance from the predicted infected zone to the Belgian border, it was decided not to vaccinate against BTV1 in 2009 in Belgium.     

A monovalent attenuated serotype 2 bluetongue virus vaccine confers homologous protection in sheep

An outbreak of bluetongue caused by bluetongue virus serotype 2 virus in certain Mediterranean countries during 1999/2000, presented an opportunity to produce a monovalent type 2 vaccine. Since no data have been published previously on the protection conferred by the current live attenuated bluetongue vaccine strains used in the polyvalent vaccine, a challenge experiment was performed to determine the degree of homologous protection induced by the type 2 vaccine strain. The standard vaccine dose of 5 x 10(4) pfu of vaccine conferred 99.7% protection against clinical disease and no viraemia was detected in the vaccinates.     

Remote sensing based identification of environmental risk factors associated with West Nile disease in horses in Camargue, France

Geographic information system and remote sensing technologies were used to identify landscape features associated with risk of West Nile virus transmission as defined by the presence of confirmed horse cases. SPOT-4 images of Camargue area were used to generate a map of landscape categories of epidemic foci and the geographic information system was employed to determine the proportion of landscape components surrounding 10 horse case sites and 17 control sites. The spatio-temporal analysis of the cases outbreak gave the best results for a spatial window of 9 km and a temporal window of 18 days. Two clusters were identified (relative risk=3.35), both in the wet area of Camargue, near the town "Les Saintes Maries de la Mer". The first one was 4 km radius, the second 9 km. The relationships between the presence of cases and proportions of landscape categories were analyzed using generalized linear model. The best model indicated that rice fields and dry bushes, wet "sansouire" and open water were the major components of the landscape that were associated with the presence of West Nile virus cases.     

Will bluetongue come on the wind to the United Kingdom in 2007?

In 2006, over 2000 cases of bluetongue were recorded in northern Europe. The disease, which has been more typically associated with Mediterranean areas, is believed to have become established hundreds of kilometres to the north of its traditional area, probably as a consequence of the hottest summer/autumn period since records began. In this special article, John Gloster and colleagues describe the meteorological conditions surrounding the 2006 outbreak, and investigate the possibility of bluetongue virus (BTV) spreading on the wind to the UK in 2007. For this to happen there would need to be a source of windborne virus, together with a susceptible population of ruminants in the vicinity of the coast. Evidence from outbreaks in the Mediterranean Basin suggests that long-distance transport of BTV-infected vectors has already occurred, at least in that region. The overall likelihood of this occurring in northern Europe depends critically on whether the virus overwinters on the near continent; this will not be known until around May 2007. The 2006 outbreak has highlighted the importance of understanding the impact of climate change on animal disease.     

Molecular epidemiology of bluetongue virus in Portugal during 2004-2006 outbreak

After 44 years of epidemiological silence, bluetongue virus (BTV) was reintroduced in Portugal in the autumn of 2004. The first clinical cases of bluetongue disease (BT) were notified in sheep farms located in the South of Portugal, close to the Spanish border. A total of six BTV, five of serotype 4 and one of serotype 2 were isolated from sheep and cattle during the 2004-2006 epizootics. The nucleotide sequence of gene segments L2, S7 and S10 of BTV-4 prototype strain (BTV4/22045/PT04) obtained from the initial outbreak and of BTV-2 (BTV2/26629/PT05) was fully determined and compared with those from other parts of the world. The phylogenetic analysis revealed that BTV4/22045/PT04 is related to other BTV-4 strains that circulate in the Mediterranean basin since 1998, showing the highest identity (99%) with BTV-4 isolates of 2003 from Sardinia and Corsica, whereas BTV2/26629/PT05 is almost indistinguishable from the Onderstepoort BTV-2 live-attenuated vaccine strain and its related field strain isolated in Italy. Since live-attenuated BTV-2 vaccine was never used in Portugal, the isolation of this strain may represent a natural circulation of the vaccine virus used in other countries in Mediterranean Europe.     

Associations between dogs that were serologically positive for Rickettsia conorii relative to the residences of two human cases of Mediterranean spotted fever in Piemonte (Italy)

A geographic information system and K-function analysis were used to evaluate the spatial association of canine serological results for Rickettsia conorii, the causative agent of Mediterranean spotted fever (MSF), and clinical cases of MSF in humans in Piemonte, northwest Italy. The residences of dog owners were clustered in two rural villages in the province of Cuneo, where two human cases of MSF occurred in 1997 and 1998. Eighteen out of 116 dogs examined were positive by indirect immunofluorescent assay (IFA+, titre > or =1:160) for MSF. K-functions were compared for IFA+ dogs and for all dogs sampled. Monte Carlo and bootstrap simulations demonstrated that clustering of IFA+ dogs was significantly greater than clustering of all dogs, at distances of less than 0.6 km from human cases of MSF. Logistic regression analysis indicated that the risk of being IFA+ was highest for dogs residing within the first quartile of distance (0.7 km) from human cases of the disease, and for dogs that were not confined. However, year and season of blood collection were not associated with IFA status. It was concluded that a relatively high dog population density along with a rural or semi-rural environment favours the occurrence of emergent foci of MSF in the province of Cuneo.     

Controlling disease outbreaks in wildlife using limited culling: modelling classical swine fever incursions in wild pigs in Australia

ABSTRACT: Disease modelling is one approach for providing new insights into wildlife disease epidemiology. This paper describes a spatio-temporal, stochastic, susceptible- exposed-infected-recovered process model that simulates the potential spread of classical swine fever through a documented, large and free living wild pig population following a simulated incursion. The study area (300 000 km2) was in northern Australia. Published data on wild pig ecology from Australia, and international Classical Swine Fever data was used to parameterise the model. Sensitivity analyses revealed that herd density (best estimate 1-3 pigs km-2), daily herd movement distances (best estimate approximately 1 km), probability of infection transmission between herds (best estimate 0.75) and disease related herd mortality (best estimate 42%) were highly influential on epidemic size but that extraordinary movements of pigs and the yearly home range size of a pig herd were not. CSF generally established (98% of simulations) following a single point introduction. CSF spread at approximately 9 km2 per day with low incidence rates (< 2 herds per day) in an epidemic wave along contiguous habitat for several years, before dying out (when the epidemic arrived at the end of a contiguous sub-population or at a low density wild pig area). The low incidence rate indicates that surveillance for wildlife disease epidemics caused by short lived infections will be most efficient when surveillance is based on detection and investigation of clinical events, although this may not always be practical. Epidemics could be contained and eradicated with culling (aerial shooting) or vaccination when these were adequately implemented. It was apparent that the spatial structure, ecology and behaviour of wild populations must be accounted for during disease management in wildlife. An important finding was that it may only be necessary to cull or vaccinate relatively small proportions of a population to successfully contain and eradicate some wildlife disease epidemics.     

Serological survey of ruminants in some Caribbean and South American countries for type-specific antibody to bluetongue and epizootic haemorrhagic disease viruses

The results of a serological survey of ruminant livestock in some countries of the Caribbean and South America for type-specific antibody to bluetongue virus are reported. Using the microneutralisation test with the international serotypes 1 to 22 of bluetongue virus, antibodies to several types were detected. Analysis of the data indicated that in 1981-82 bluetongue virus types 6, 14 and 17, or viruses closely related to them, were infecting ruminants in this region of the world. Antibody to the related virus of epizootic haemorrhagic disease (serotype 1) was also detected in cattle. The difficulty in interpreting the epidemiological significance of data generated by a serological survey of this kind is discussed.     

内蒙古多伦县景观格局动态变化分析

根据内蒙古多伦县2000年TM影像和2008年SPOT5影像及地面调查资料,在ArcGIS和ERDAS等软件支持下,获得多伦县2期景观类型数据,并运用景观生态学原理与方法,分析了多伦县2000-2008年景观格局动态变化,以期为多伦县土地资源的合理规划与利用提供决策依据,也为荒漠化治理提供理论依据。结果表明:林地面积增长最快,增长了12.09倍,年变化率为1.51%,优势度指数增加明显,破碎度指数和分维数减小;沙地面积减小最为明显,减小了16107 hm²,占2000年沙地总面积的85.1%,年变化率为0.11%,随着斑块数量的增加破碎度指数呈增加趋势,沙地景观类型重心向西北方向转移21.13 km。草地斑块数呈减少趋势,但是斑块面积增加了36150 hm²,占2000年草地总面积的16.4%。综上所述,表明多伦县生态环境趋于良性发展。     

Possible introduction of epizootic hemorrhagic disease of deer virus (serotype 2) and bluetongue virus (serotype 11) into British Columbia in 1987 and 1988 by infected Culicoides carried on the wind.

Outbreaks of epizootic hemorrhagic disease of deer and of bluetongue began in British Columbia in August and October 1987 respectively and recrudescence of infection by both viruses was detected the following year in August. Weather records for up to 18 days before the initial outbreaks of disease, isolation of virus or seroconversion were examined to determine if the viruses could have been introduced by infected Culicoides carried on the wind. Data on temperature, rainfall, wind speed and direction and pressure together with backward trajectory analysis showed that there were suitable winds which could have introduced Culicoides infected with epizootic hemorrhagic disease of deer virus on 13 August 1987 (14 days before disease was observed), Culicoides infected with bluetongue virus on 1 October 1987 (7 days before virus was isolated and 13 days before disease in sheep) and Culicoides infected with bluetongue or epizootic hemorrhagic disease of deer viruses on 20 July 1988 (15 days before seroconversion was detected). The arrival on 13 August 1987 coincided with the passage of a cold front and rain and that on 1 October 1987 with a fall in temperature and calm winds. The source of the Culicoides before arrival could have been the Okanogan Valley as far south as the junction of the Okanogan and Columbia rivers in Washington, USA. Flight would have been at temperatures of 12.6 degrees C or higher and at heights up to 1.5 km.     

Greater Sage-Grouse and Severe Winter Conditions: Identifying Habitat for Conservation

Developing sustainable rangeland management strategies requires solution-driven research that addresses ecological issues within the context of regionally important socioeconomic concerns. A key sustainability issue in many regions of the world is conserving habitat that buffers animal populations from climatic variability, including seasonal deviation from long-term precipitation or temperature averages, and that can establish an ecological bottleneck by which the landscape-level availability of critical resources becomes limited. We integrated methods to collect landscape-level animal occurrence data during severe winter conditions with estimation and validation of a resource selection function, with the larger goal of developing spatially explicit guidance for rangeland habitat conservation. The investigation involved greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) that occupy a landscape that is undergoing human modification for development of energy resources. We refined spatial predictions by exploring how reductions in the availability of sagebrush (as a consequence of increasing snow depth) may affect patterns of predicted occurrence. Occurrence of sage-grouse reflected landscape-level selection for big sagebrush, taller shrubs, and favorable thermal conditions and avoidance of bare ground and anthropogenic features. Refinement of spatial predictions showed that important severe winter habitat was distributed patchily and was constrained in spatial extent (7–18% of the landscape). The mapping tools we developed offer spatially explicit guidance for planning human activity in ways that are compatible with sustaining habitat that functions disproportionately in population persistence relative to its spatial extent or frequency of use. Increasingly, place-based, quantitative investigations that aim to develop solutions to landscape sustainability issues will be needed to keep pace with human-modification of rangeland and uncertainty associated with global climate change and its effects on animal populations.     

Spatial analysis of seroconversion of sentinel cattle to bluetongue viruses in Queensland

Objective To assess quantitatively the spatial distribution of seroconversion of Queensland cattle to bluetongue viruses.
Design A sentinel herd study. Sample population Sixty-nine sentinel herds at 30 locations.
Procedure Spatial clustering of seroconversion to blue-tongue viruses was investigated during the period from 1990 to 1994.
Results Seroconversion to only two bluetongue virus serotypes, 1 and 21, was observed. The 14 herds, in which seroconversion to bluetongue virus serotype 1 was detected, were located only along the eastern coastal and subcoastal region of Queensland, and were significantly (P < 0.05) clustered. Locations at which seroconversion to serotype 21 was detected, were not significantly clustered. The results generally agree with field observations, except for the failure to detect seroconversion to bluetongue viruses in north-western Queensland.
Conclusion Bluetongue infection of cattle in north-western Queensland may be temporally sporadic. The dominance of serotype 1 in the Queensland cattle population may be the result of differential transmission by potential vector species. Long-term surveillance programs are important for defining disease status of animal populations.     

Quantitative analysis of transmission parameters for bluetongue virus serotype 8 in Western Europe in 2006

ABSTRACT: The recent bluetongue virus serotype 8 (BTV-8) epidemic in Western Europe struck hard. Controlling the infection was difficult and a good and safe vaccine was not available until the spring of 2008. Little was known regarding BTV transmission in Western Europe or the efficacy of control measures. Quantitative details on transmission are essential to assess the potential and efficacy of such measures.To quantify virus transmission between herds, a temporal and a spatio-temporal analysis were applied to data on reported infected herds in 2006. We calculated the basic reproduction number between herds (Rh: expected number of new infections, generated by one initial infected herd in a susceptible environment). It was found to be of the same order of magnitude as that of an infection with Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) in The Netherlands, e.g. around 4. We concluded that an average day temperature of at least 15°C is required for BTV-8 transmission between herds in Western Europe. A few degrees increase in temperature is found to lead to a major increase in BTV-8 transmission.We also found that the applied disease control (spatial zones based on 20 km radius restricting animal transport to outside regions) led to a spatial transmission pattern of BTV-8, with 85% of transmission restricted to a 20 km range. This 20 km equals the scale of the protection zones. We concluded that free animal movement led to substantial faster spread of the BTV-8 epidemic over space as compared to a situation with animal movement restrictions.     

Zero-inflated models for identifying disease risk factors when case detection is imperfect: Application to highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 in Thailand

Logistic regression models integrating disease presence/absence data are widely used to identify risk factors for a given disease. However, when data arise from imperfect surveillance systems, the interpretation of results is confusing since explanatory variables can be related either to the occurrence of the disease or to the efficiency of the surveillance system. As an alternative, we present spatial and non-spatial zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) regressions for modelling the number of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 outbreaks that were reported at subdistrict level in Thailand during the second epidemic wave (July 3rd 2004 to May 5th 2005). The spatial ZIP model fitted the data more effectively than its non-spatial version. This model clarified the role of the different variables: for example, results suggested that human population density was not associated with the disease occurrence but was rather associated with the number of reported outbreaks given disease occurrence. In addition, these models allowed estimating that 902 (95% CI 881–922) subdistricts suffered at least one HPAI H5N1 outbreak in Thailand although only 779 were reported to veterinary authorities, leading to a general surveillance sensitivity of 86.4% (95% CI 84.5–88.4). Finally, the outputs of the spatial ZIP model revealed the spatial distribution of the probability that a subdistrict could have been a false negative. The methodology presented here can easily be adapted to other animal health contexts.     

Molecular epidemiology of bluetongue virus serotype 1 isolated in 2006 from Algeria

This study reports on an outbreak of disease that occurred in central Algeria during July 2006. Sheep in the affected area presented clinical signs typical of bluetongue (BT) disease. A total of 5245 sheep in the affected region were considered to be susceptible, with 263 cases and thirty-six deaths. Bluetongue virus (BTV) serotype 1 was isolated and identified as the causative agent. Segments 2, 7 and 10 of this virus were sequenced and compared with other isolates from Morocco, Italy, Portugal and France showing that they all belong to a ‘western’ BTV group/topotype and collectively represent a western Mediterranean lineage of BTV-1.     

基于野外观测和TM数据的锡林浩特典型草原MODIS/LAI产品验证

通过2008年夏季生长季的3期LAI野外观测和TM图像的处理分析,对锡林浩特国家观象台附近24 km²典型草原区的MODIS/LAI产品精度从时空2种维度进行了评估。结果显示,在时间维度上,MODIS/LAI产品可以较为准确的体现草地植被生长轨迹;在空间维度上,MODIS/LAI产品与TM/LAI反演结果有相似的变化趋势。以TM/LAI结果为参考真值,MODIS/LAI产品的相对均方根误差约为24%,并存在10.8%的正偏差,表明有一定程度的高估。误差分析结果显示,MODIS/LAI产品精度主要受到土壤背景光谱以及地表均匀程度的影响,在LAI较小的区域,以及在草地空间异质性因受人类活动而增强的7月初和8月末,MODIS/LAI产品误差更大。