Detecting climatic change signals: are there any "fingerprints"?

Projected changes in the Earth's climate can be driven from a combined set of forcing factors consisting of regionally heterogeneous anthropogenic and natural aerosols and land use changes, as well as global-scale influences from solar variability and transient increases in human-produced greenhouse gases. Thus, validation of climate model projections that are driven only by increases in greenhouse gases can be inconsistent when one attempts the validation by looking for a regional or time-evolving "fingerprint" of such projected changes in real climatic data. Until climate models are driven by time-evolving, combined, multiple, and heterogeneous forcing factors, the best global climatic change "fingerprint" will probably remain a many-decades average of hemi-spheric- to global-scale trends in surface air temperatures. Century-long global warming (or cooling) trends of 0.5 degrees C appear to have occurred infrequently over the past several thousand years-perhaps only once or twice a millennium, as proxy records suggest. This implies an 80 to 90 percent heuristic likelihood that the 20th-century 0.5 +/- 0.2 degrees C warming trend is not a wholly natural climatic fluctuation.     

Comment on "Global trends in wind speed and wave height"

Young et al. (Reports, 22 April 2011, p. 451) reported trends in global mean wind speed much larger than found by other investigators. Their report fails to reference these other investigations and does not discuss the consequences that such large wind trends would have on global evaporation and precipitation. The difference between their altimeter and buoy trends suggests a relatively large trend error.     

Changes in Earth's albedo measured by satellite

NASA global satellite data provide observations of Earth's albedo, i.e., the fraction of incident solar radiation that is reflected back to space. The satellite data show that the last four years are within natural variability and fail to confirm the 6% relative increase in albedo inferred from observations of earthshine from the moon. Longer global satellite records will be required to discern climate trends in Earth's albedo.     

Global sea level rise and the greenhouse effect: might they be connected?

Secular sea level trends extracted from tide gauge records of appropriately long duration demonstrate that global sea level may be rising at a rate in excess of 1 millimeter per year. However, because global coverage of the oceans by the tide gauge network is highly nonuniform and the tide gauge data reveal considerable spatial variability, there has been a well-founded reluctance to interpret the observed secular sea level rise as representing a signal of global scale that might be related to the greenhouse effect. When the tide gauge data are filtered so as to remove the contribution of ongoing glacial isostatic adjustment to the local sea level trend at each location, then the individual tide gauge records reveal sharply reduced geographic scatter and suggest that there is a globally coherent signal of strength 2.4 +/- 0.90 millimeters per year that is active in the system. This signal could constitute an indication of global climate warming.     

Recent climate observations compared to projections

We present recent observed climate trends for carbon dioxide concentration, global mean air temperature, and global sea level, and we compare these trends to previous model projections as summarized in the 2001 assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The IPCC scenarios and projections start in the year 1990, which is also the base year of the Kyoto protocol, in which almost all industrialized nations accepted a binding commitment to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. The data available for the period since 1990 raise concerns that the climate system, in particular sea level, may be responding more quickly to climate change than our current generation of models indicates.     

Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide: tree ring evidence for growth enhancement in natural vegetation

A response of plant growth to increased atmospheric carbon dioxide, which has been anticipated from laboratory data, may now have been detected in the annual rings of subalpine conifers growing in the western United States. Experimental evidence shows that carbon dioxide can be an important limiting factor in the growth of plants in this high-altitude environment. The greatly increased tree growth rates observed since the mid-l9th century exceed those expected from climatic trends but are consistent in magnitude with global trends in carbon dioxide, especially in recent decades. If correctly interpreted, these findings have important implications for climate studies involving tree ring observations and for models of the global carbon dioxide budget.     

Atmospheric trends in methylchloroform and the global average for the hydroxyl radical

Frequent atmospheric measurements of the anthropogenic compound methylchloroform that were made between 1978 and 1985 indicate that this species is continuing to increase significantly around the world. Reaction with the major atmospheric oxidant, the hydroxyl radical (OH), is the principal sink for this species. The observed mean trends for methylchloroform are 4.8, 5.4, 6.4, and 6.9 percent per year at Aldrigole (Ireland) and Cape Meares (Oregon), Ragged Point (Barbados), Point Matatula (American Samoa), and Cape Grim (Tasmania), respectively, from July 1978 to June 1985. These measured trends, combined with knowledge of industrial emissions, were used in an optimal estimation inversion scheme to deduce a globally averaged methylchloroform atmospheric lifetime of 6.3 (+ 1.2, -0.9) years (1sigma uncertainty) and a globally averaged tropospheric hydroxyl radical concentration of (7.7 +/- 1.4) x 10(5) radicals per cubic centimeter (1sigma uncertainty). These 7 years of gas chromatographic measurements, which comprise about 60,000 individual calibrated real-time air analyses, provide the most accurate estimates yet of the trends and lifetime of methylchloroform and of the global average for tropospheric hydroxyl radical levels. Accurate determination of hydroxyl radical levels is crucial to understanding global atmospheric chemical cycles and trends in the levels of trace gases such as methane.     

Twentieth-Century Sea Surface Temperature Trends

An analysis of historical sea surface temperatures provides evidence for global warming since 1900, in line with land-based analyses of global temperature trends, and also shows that over the same period, the eastern equatorial Pacific cooled and the zonal sea surface temperature gradient strengthened. Recent theoretical studies have predicted such a pattern as a response of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system to an exogenous heating of the tropical atmosphere. This pattern, however, is not reproduced by the complex ocean-atmosphere circulation models currently used to simulate the climatic response to increased greenhouse gases. Its presence is likely to lessen the mean 20th-century global temperature change in model simulations.     

High-resolution climatic analysis and southwest biogeography

Meteorologists and climatologists have produced significant new data on the fluid dynamics of the atmosphere, thus allowing biologists to examine more closely the cause-effect relation between the large-scale structure of the atmosphere and the dominant patterns of global biogeography. The inability to characterize the high-frequency variability of the weather has constrained such efforts. A method that allows year-to-year patterns of weather variability to be characterized in the contexts of global warming and cooling trends is applied in a combined analysis of long-term monthly weather records and data from an ecological monitoring project in southern New Mexico. The analysis suggests a cause-effect hypothesis of recent desertification in the North American Southwest. The links between the atmosphere and the biosphere are based on the fundamentally different responses to specific weather regimes of semidesert grasses with a C(4) photosynthetic pathway and desert shrubs with a C(3) photosynthetic pathway. The hypothesis appears to be of sufficient generality to explain the complex, but well-documented, floristic changes that have occurred in the same region since the last glacial maximum.     

广义3S技术在林业上的应用现状与发展趋势

为提高林业管理的技术水平,从广义3S技术的定义、基本组成出发,总结和论述当前广义3S技术在林业上(包括森林资源监测、灾害管理与防治、林业管理与决策等方面)的应用,提出广义3S技术在林业上应用的5个发展趋势,分别为:①从中、大尺度向小尺度发展;②从单一的GPS定位向集成的多技术全球定位系统发展;③从通用的GIS软件向专业的GIS应用软件过渡;④从单机模式向网络发展;⑤从PC台式机向掌上PDA发展.     

Arctic air pollution: origins and impacts

Notable warming trends have been observed in the Arctic. Although increased human-induced emissions of long-lived greenhouse gases are certainly the main driving factor, air pollutants, such as aerosols and ozone, are also important. Air pollutants are transported to the Arctic, primarily from Eurasia, leading to high concentrations in winter and spring (Arctic haze). Local ship emissions and summertime boreal forest fires may also be important pollution sources. Aerosols and ozone could be perturbing the radiative budget of the Arctic through processes specific to the region: Absorption of solar radiation by aerosols is enhanced by highly reflective snow and ice surfaces; deposition of light-absorbing aerosols on snow or ice can decrease surface albedo; and tropospheric ozone forcing may also be contributing to warming in this region. Future increases in pollutant emissions locally or in mid-latitudes could further accelerate global warming in the Arctic.     

A global geometric framework for nonlinear dimensionality reduction

Scientists working with large volumes of high-dimensional data, such as global climate patterns, stellar spectra, or human gene distributions, regularly confront the problem of dimensionality reduction: finding meaningful low-dimensional structures hidden in their high-dimensional observations. The human brain confronts the same problem in everyday perception, extracting from its high-dimensional sensory inputs-30,000 auditory nerve fibers or 10(6) optic nerve fibers-a manageably small number of perceptually relevant features. Here we describe an approach to solving dimensionality reduction problems that uses easily measured local metric information to learn the underlying global geometry of a data set. Unlike classical techniques such as principal component analysis (PCA) and multidimensional scaling (MDS), our approach is capable of discovering the nonlinear degrees of freedom that underlie complex natural observations, such as human handwriting or images of a face under different viewing conditions. In contrast to previous algorithms for nonlinear dimensionality reduction, ours efficiently computes a globally optimal solution, and, for an important class of data manifolds, is guaranteed to converge asymptotically to the true structure.     

Sea Level and Climate of the Past Century

During the past century global temperatures increased until about 1940, after which there was a decrease. Precipitation trends show a decrease from 1900 to 1940, and a definite global increase thereafter. Sea level trends for the eastern coast of the United States are parallel to, and presumably related to, the climatological changes.     

The outlook for population growth

Projections of population size, growth rates, and age distribution, although extending to distant horizons, shape policies today for the economy, environment, and government programs such as public pensions and health care. The projections can lead to costly policy adjustments, which in turn can cause political and economic turmoil. The United Nations projects global population to grow from about 7 billion today to 9.3 billion in 2050 and 10.1 billion in 2100, while the Old Age Dependency Ratio doubles by 2050 and triples by 2100. How are such population projections made, and how certain can we be about the trends they foresee?     

Heating of basalts with a carbon dioxide laser

Basalts heated strongly with focused infrared laser radiation vaporized and splattered. Electron microprobe analyses of condensate, ejecta, and residue show strong vapor fractionation trends which, for some elements, are different from what would be expected theoretically and from previously reported data on more siliceous materials. It appears that solution effects can account for these differences. Heating of materials by a powerful focused laser beam for the purpose of study of vapor fractionation is a convenient technique that is more versatile than previous methods such as heating in solar or arc image furnaces.     

Who is down on the farm? Social aspects of Australian agriculture in the 21st century

Globalization, international policymanipulations such as the US farm bill, andnational policy responses have received a greatdeal of media coverage in recent times. Theseinternational and national events are having amajor impact on agricultural production inAustralia. There is some suggestion that theyare, in fact, responsible for a downturn in thefortunes of agriculture. Yet, it is more likelythat these issues are acting to continue andexacerbate a trend towards reduced viabilityfor farm families evident in economic andsocial trends since at least the 1950s.Nevertheless, globalization and Australia's policy responses have left farm families morevulnerable in the global world. What then do weknow about their impact at farm gate level?Just who is doing the farming in Australia inthe 21st century and how are these peopleresponding to major world politics? This paperwill focus on the social aspects ofagricultural production in Australia notingsocial trends and drawing attention to thechanging social relations of agriculture. Thedominance of farm families, the role ofcorporate agriculture, ethnic diversity, theimportance of women, and the practice of farmtransfers will be canvassed in this paper.     

Impacts of biodiversity loss on ocean ecosystem services

Human-dominated marine ecosystems are experiencing accelerating loss of populations and species, with largely unknown consequences. We analyzed local experiments, long-term regional time series, and global fisheries data to test how biodiversity loss affects marine ecosystem services across temporal and spatial scales. Overall, rates of resource collapse increased and recovery potential, stability, and water quality decreased exponentially with declining diversity. Restoration of biodiversity, in contrast, increased productivity fourfold and decreased variability by 21%, on average. We conclude that marine biodiversity loss is increasingly impairing the ocean's capacity to provide food, maintain water quality, and recover from perturbations. Yet available data suggest that at this point, these trends are still reversible.     

What is natural? The need for a long-term perspective in biodiversity conservation

Ecosystems change in response to factors such as climate variability, invasions, and wildfires. Most records used to assess such change are based on short-term ecological data or satellite imagery spanning only a few decades. In many instances it is impossible to disentangle natural variability from other, potentially significant trends in these records, partly because of their short time scale. We summarize recent studies that show how paleoecological records can be used to provide a longer temporal perspective to address specific conservation issues relating to biological invasions, wildfires, climate change, and determination of natural variability. The use of such records can reduce much of the uncertainty surrounding the question of what is "natural" and thereby start to provide important guidance for long-term management and conservation.     

Nonlinear dimensionality reduction by locally linear embedding

Many areas of science depend on exploratory data analysis and visualization. The need to analyze large amounts of multivariate data raises the fundamental problem of dimensionality reduction: how to discover compact representations of high-dimensional data. Here, we introduce locally linear embedding (LLE), an unsupervised learning algorithm that computes low-dimensional, neighborhood-preserving embeddings of high-dimensional inputs. Unlike clustering methods for local dimensionality reduction, LLE maps its inputs into a single global coordinate system of lower dimensionality, and its optimizations do not involve local minima. By exploiting the local symmetries of linear reconstructions, LLE is able to learn the global structure of nonlinear manifolds, such as those generated by images of faces or documents of text.     

乘数关系――从局部性状优势到整体杂种优势的预测性模型

探讨了杂种优势理论无法充分解释育种实践上的杂种优势的现象及原因.认为局部优势并不一定导致整体的杂种优势,已有的理论可以解释局部性状优势,但无法解释作为整体的杂种优势.对局部优势与整体优势的关系做初步分析,提出局部性状优势主要通过乘数关系组织为整体杂种优势的观点,认为乘教关系和乘数效应是整体杂种优势形成的重要基础,还就此观点做进一步的讨论.