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1.
Model uncertainty in the ecosystem approach to fisheries   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
Fisheries scientists habitually consider uncertainty in parameter values, but often neglect uncertainty about model structure, an issue of increasing importance as ecosystem models are devised to support the move to an ecosystem approach to fisheries (EAF). This paper sets out pragmatic approaches with which to account for uncertainties in model structure and we review current ways of dealing with this issue in fisheries and other disciplines. All involve considering a set of alternative models representing different structural assumptions, but differ in how those models are used. The models can be asked to identify bounds on possible outcomes, find management actions that will perform adequately irrespective of the true model, find management actions that best achieve one or more objectives given weights assigned to each model, or formalize hypotheses for evaluation through experimentation. Data availability is likely to limit the use of approaches that involve weighting alternative models in an ecosystem setting, and the cost of experimentation is likely to limit its use. Practical implementation of an EAF should therefore be based on management approaches that acknowledge the uncertainty inherent in model predictions and are robust to it. Model results must be presented in ways that represent the risks and trade‐offs associated with alternative actions and the degree of uncertainty in predictions. This presentation should not disguise the fact that, in many cases, estimates of model uncertainty may be based on subjective criteria. The problem of model uncertainty is far from unique to fisheries, and a dialogue among fisheries modellers and modellers from other scientific communities will therefore be helpful.  相似文献   

2.
Coral reefs support numerous ornamental fisheries, but there are concerns about stock sustainability due to the volume of animals caught. Such impacts are difficult to quantify and manage because fishery data are often lacking. Here, we suggest a framework that integrates several data‐poor assessment and management methods in order to provide management guidance for fisheries that differ widely in the kinds and amounts of data available. First, a resource manager could assess the status of the ecosystem (using quantitative metrics where data are available and semi‐quantitative risk assessment where they are not) and determine whether overall fishing mortality should be reduced. Next, productivity susceptibility analysis can be used to estimate vulnerability to fishing using basic information on life history and the nature of the fishery. Information on the relative degree of exploitation (e.g. export data or ratios of fish density inside and outside no‐take marine reserves) is then combined with the vulnerability ranks to prioritize species for precautionary management and further analysis. For example, species that are both highly exploited and vulnerable are good candidates for precautionary reductions in allowable capture. Species that appear to be less vulnerable could be managed on a stock‐specific basis to prevent over‐exploitation of some species resulting from the use of aggregate catch limits. The framework could be applied to coral reef ornamental fisheries which typically lack landings, catch‐per‐unit‐effort and age‐size data to generate management guidance to reduce overfishing risk. We illustrate the application of this framework to an ornamental fishery in Indonesia.  相似文献   

3.
Ecosystem‐based management of fisheries aims to allow sustainable use of fished stocks while keeping impacts upon ecosystems within safe ecological limits. Both the FAO Code of Conduct for Responsible Fisheries and the Aichi Biodiversity Targets promote these aims. We evaluate implementation of ecosystem‐based management in six case‐study fisheries in which potential indirect impacts upon bird or mammal predators of fished stocks are well publicized and well studied. In particular, we consider the components needed to enable management strategies to respond to information from predator monitoring. Although such information is available in all case‐studies, only one has a reference point defining safe ecological limits for predators and none has a method to adjust fishing activities in response to estimates of the state of the predator population. Reference points for predators have been developed outside the fisheries management context, but adoption by fisheries managers is hindered a lack of clarity about management objectives and uncertainty about how fishing affects predator dynamics. This also hinders the development of adjustment methods because these generally require information on the state of ecosystem variables relative to reference points. Nonetheless, most of the case‐studies include precautionary measures to limit impacts on predators. These measures are not used tactically and therefore risk excessive restrictions on sustainable use. Adoption of predator reference points to inform tactical adjustment of precautionary measures would be an appropriate next step towards ecosystem‐based management.  相似文献   

4.
Abstract The many risks associated with fisheries management can be attributed to the substantial uncertainties that exist within fishery systems and their numerous possible consequences for fishers and fish stocks. Compounding these risks are the possible disparities between different fisheries professionals on the nature and source of these risks. This paper attempts to categorise the risks as reported by fishery scientists and managers in Australia and along the US Atlantic Coast. Through the use of semi‐structured interview data, this paper attempts to provide a categorisation of the risks identified by fisheries professionals; and to compare the identified risks by professional group and by country. The analysis yields three broad categories and 12 subcategories of risk found in both nations. Results indicate that: (1) fisheries management risks can be broadly categorised through interview data; (2) the frequency of identification of a particular risk category reflects the management system in which they operate; and (3) risk categorisation could be useful from a risk management perspective as risks in different categories may be evaluated and managed using different risk management approaches.  相似文献   

5.
Guidelines for the assessment and management of developing swordfish fisheries are derived through an examination of five swordfish fisheries. As they develop, swordfish fisheries may be inclined to local depletion around underwater features, such as seamounts and banks. Few nations have applied the precautionary approach in managing their developing swordfish fisheries. Without controls, swordfish fisheries expand geographically and fishing effort increases, often overshooting optimum levels. However, it is difficult to distinguish clear evidence of fishery collapse; modern longliners harvest widely distributed tuna and swordfish and they are able to relocate to distant areas or switch between target species in response to fluctuations in species abundance and price. Furthermore, the wide distribution of swordfish combined with year‐round spawning and high growth rates amongst juveniles probably contribute to the apparent resilience of swordfish stocks to intensive harvesting. Over half the world’s swordfish catch is taken as an incidental catch of longliners fishing for tuna. In several areas, such as the North Atlantic, catch quotas have sometimes caused tuna longline fishers to discard swordfish. Minimum size limits have also resulted in discarding of swordfish in tuna fisheries and in dedicated swordfish fisheries. In addition to weakening the effectiveness of those management measures, bycatch and discarding add to the complexities of managing swordfish fisheries and to uncertainties in assessing the stocks. Longliners that target swordfish often fish at high latitudes where interactions with marine wildlife, such as seabird, are generally more frequent than at low latitudes. Concern over incidental catches of marine wildlife and other species is becoming a driving force in the management of several swordfish fisheries. Fishery management organisations will need to implement management measures to protect non‐target species and gather reliable data and information on the situation by placing observers on boats fishing for swordfish.  相似文献   

6.
The 1996 Food and Agriculture Organization’s (FAO) ‘Guidelines on the Precautionary Approach to Fisheries and Species Introduction’ raise important issues for fisheries managers, but fail to prescribe an approach for risk management. The distinguishing characteristics of the ‘precautionary approach’ are the inclusion of uncertainty and ‘an elaboration on the burden of proof’. The FAO precautionary approach emphasizes that managers should be risk‐averse, but does not provide tools for determining the appropriate degree of risk aversion. Consequently, application of the precautionary approach often leads to decision‐making based on ad hoc safety margins. These safety margins are seldom chosen with explicit consideration of trade‐offs. If the emphasis was shifted to choosing between competing uncertainties, then managers could manage risk. By attempting to avoid risk, managers may gain exposure to other risks and perhaps miss valuable opportunities. We place fishery management problems within the rubric of ‘real investment’ problems, and compare and contrast the consideration of risk by alternative investment frameworks. We show that traditional investment frameworks are inappropriate for fishery management, and furthermore, that traditional precautionary approaches are arbitrary and without basis in decision theory. Quantitative decision‐making techniques, such as formal decision analysis (FDA), enable integration of competing hypotheses that help alleviate burden‐of‐proof issues. These techniques help analysts consider sources of uncertainty. FDA, however, can still be subject to arbitrary safety margins because such analyses often focus on determining which strategies best achieve, or avoid, targets that have been established without complete consideration of trade‐offs. A managerial finance approach, real options analysis (ROA), is an alternative and complementary decision‐making technique that enables managers to compute precautionary adjustments that couple the size of the ‘safety margin’ with the amount of uncertainty, thereby optimizing risk exposure and avoiding the need for arbitrary safety margins. We illustrate the advantages of an approach that combines FDA and ROA, using a heuristic example about a decision to re‐introduce Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.) into Lake Ontario. Finally, we provide guidance on applying ROA to other fishery problems. The precautionary approach requires that managers consider risk, but considering risk is not the same as managing it. Here ROA is useful.  相似文献   

7.
The European eel, Anguilla anguilla (L.), has a complex life history and many aspects of the biology and population dynamics of this species remain unknown or, at best, poorly understood. Relatively little is also known about the status of the stocks and fisheries, but available data suggest that recruitment of glass eels has been falling for the last 20 years and is at historically low levels. Yellow and silver eel catches have also been falling in many parts of the species range over a similar time‐scale. Re‐examination of the principles applied to fisheries management over recent years has resulted in the adoption of a ‘precautionary approach’ to the conservation, management and exploitation of fish stocks, and in an explicit need to take account of uncertainties in management to reduce risks to stocks and their environment. Such an approach is highly relevant to the management of the European eel and requires that urgent consideration is given to harvest strategies and decision structures for the national and international management of stocks and fisheries. Provisional biological reference levels should be established to provide an equable assessment of the status of stocks in all parts of Europe and to evaluate the need for management measures in all fisheries. These will need to be reviewed as further information comes available. Monitoring and research on eel stocks should therefore be enhanced and co‐ordinated to improve our understanding of the status of stocks throughout Europe and the biology of the species.  相似文献   

8.
Time/area closures have been widely used in fisheries management to prevent overfishing and the destruction of marine biodiversity. To a lesser degree, such spatio‐temporal management measures have been used to reduce by‐catch of finfish or protected species. However, as ecosystem‐based management approaches are employed and more fisheries are managed through multispecies, multiobjective models, the management of by‐catch will likely become increasingly important. The elimination of by‐catch has become a primary goal of the fishing policies of many countries. It is particularly relevant in the United States, as the deadline for setting annual catch limits (ACLs) in all fisheries passes in 2011. This will result in a dramatic expansion of the number of catch and by‐catch quotas. Such catch measures may result in the early closure of otherwise sustainable fisheries when by‐catch quotas are exceeded. To prevent such closures and the consequent economic hardship to fishers and the economy, it is imperative that managers be given the tools necessary to reduce by‐catch and improve fishing selectivity. Targeted spatio‐temporal fishery closures are one solution open to managers. Here, we examine how the spatio‐temporal and oceanographic characteristics of by‐catch may be used by managers to design fishery closures, and place these methods within a decision tree to assist managers to identify appropriate management measures. We argue that the current movement towards marine spatial planning (MSP) presents an important impetus to examine how we manage fisheries spatially, and we offer a first step towards the objective participation of fisheries in the MSP process.  相似文献   

9.
In northern industrialized countries, the inland fisheries sector has long been dominated by recreational fisheries, which normally exploit fish for leisure or subsistence and provide many (poorly investigated) benefits to society. Various factors constrain the development and existence of inland fisheries, such as local user conflicts, low social priority and inadequate research and funding. In many cases, however, degradation of the environment and loss of aquatic habitat are the predominant concerns for the sustainability of inland fisheries. The need for concerted effort to prevent and reduce environmental degradation, as well as conservation of freshwater fish and fisheries as renewable common pool resources or entities in their own right is the greatest challenge facing sustainable development of inland waters. In inland fisheries management, the declining quality of the aquatic environment coupled with long‐term inadequate and often inappropriate fisheries management has led to an emphasis on enhancement practices, such as stocking, to mitigate anthropogenic stress. However, this is not always the most appropriate management approach. Therefore, there is an urgent need to alter many traditional inland fisheries management practices and systems to focus on sustainable development. This paper reviews the literature regarding the inputs needed for sustainability of inland fisheries in industrialized countries. To understand better the problems facing sustainable inland fisheries management, the inland fisheries environment, its benefits, negative impacts and constraints, as well as historical management, paradigms, trends and current practices are described. Major philosophical shifts, challenges and promising integrated management approaches are envisaged in a holistic framework. The following are considered key elements for sustainable development of inland fisheries: communication, information dissemination, education, institutional restructuring, marketing outreach, management plans, decision analysis, socioeconomic evaluation and research into the human dimension, in addition to traditional biological and ecological sciences. If these inputs are integrated with traditional fisheries management practices, the prospects for sustainability in the inland fisheries will be enhanced.  相似文献   

10.
Scientists feel discomfort when they are asked to create certainty, where none exists, for use as an alibi in policy‐making. Recently, the scientific literature has drawn attention to some pitfalls of simulation‐based fisheries management‐strategy evaluation (MSE). For example, while estimates concerning central tendencies of distributions of simulation outcomes are usually fairly robust because they are conditioned on ample data, estimates concerning the tails of distributions (such as the probability of falling below a critical biomass) are usually conditional on few data and thus often rely on assumptions that have no strong knowledge base. The clients of scientific advice, such as the European Commission, are embracing the mechanization of the evaluation of proposed Harvest Control Rules against the precautionary principle and management objectives. Where the fisheries management institutions aim for simple answers from the scientists, giving ‘green/red light’ to a proposed management strategy, the scientists are forced into a split position between satisfying the demands of their advisory role and living up to the standards of scientific rigour. We argue against the mechanization of scientific advice that aims to incorporate all relevant processes into one big model algorithm that, after construction, can be run without circumspection. We rather encourage that fisheries advice should be a dynamic process of expert judgement, incorporating separate parallel concurrent, lines of scientific evidence, from quantitative and qualitative modelling exercises and factual knowledge of the biology and the fishery dynamics. This process can be formalized to a certain degree and can easily accommodate stakeholder viewpoints.  相似文献   

11.
Abstract The ecosystem approach (EA) advocates that advice should be given based on a holistic management of the entire marine ecosystem and all fisheries and fleets involved. Recent developments have advanced to multi‐species, multi‐fisheries advice, rather than on a single‐species/fleet/area stock basis, bridging the gap between existing single‐species approaches and the needs of the EA. The Fleet and Fisheries Forecast method (Fcube) method estimates potential levels of effort by fleet in mixed fisheries situations to achieve specific targets of fishing mortality. Data on effort, landings and socioeconomic parameters were used for coastal and trawl fisheries in the Aegean Sea. Results pointed out the strengths and weaknesses of alternative management strategies from both a biological and socioeconomic perspective. Fcube revealed the importance of effort control in the coastal fisheries that are still managed with no effort restrictions. The present findings, although preliminary, revealed that stringent cuts to effort and catch levels are required if EA management goals are to be met. The Fcube methodology, initially developed for mixed fisheries advice in northern European waters that are managed with TACs, also proved promising in providing advice to non‐TAC fisheries.  相似文献   

12.
An essential prerequisite of a sustainable fisheries management is the matching of biologically relevant processes and management action. In fisheries management and assessment, fish stocks are the fundamental biological unit, but the reasoning for the operational management unit is often indistinct and mismatches between the biology and the management action frequently occur. Despite the plethora of population genetic data on marine fishes, to date little or no use is made of the information, despite the fact that the detection of genetic differentiation may indicate reproductively distinct populations. Here, we discuss key aspects of genetic population differentiation in the context of their importance for fisheries management. Furthermore, we evaluate the population structure of all 32 managed marine fish species in the north‐east Atlantic and relate this structure to current management units and practice. Although a large number of studies on genetic population structure have been published in the last decades, data are still rare for most exploited species. The mismatch between genetic population structure and the current management units found for six species (Gadus morhua, Melanogrammus aeglefinus, Merlangius merlangus, Micromesistius poutassou, Merluccius merluccius and Clupea harengus), emphasizes the need for a revision of these units and questions the appropriateness of current management measures. The implementation of complex and dynamic population structures into novel and less static management procedures should be a primary task for future fisheries management approaches.  相似文献   

13.
Sharks and their cartilaginous relatives are one of the world's most threatened species groups. The primary cause is overfishing in targeted and bycatch fisheries. Reductions in fishing mortality are needed to halt shark population declines. However, this requires complex fisheries management decisions, which often entail trade‐offs between conservation objectives and fisheries objectives. We propose the mitigation hierarchy (MH)—a step‐wise precautionary approach for minimizing the impacts of human activity on biodiversity—as a novel framework for supporting these management decisions. We outline a holistic conceptual model for risks to sharks in fisheries, which includes biophysical, operational and socioeconomic considerations. We then demonstrate how this model, in conjunction with the MH, can support risk‐based least cost shark conservation. Through providing examples from real‐world fishery management problems, we illustrate how the MH can be applied to a range of species, fisheries and contexts, and explore some of the opportunities and challenges hereto. Finally, we outline next steps for research and implementation. This is important in the context of increasing international regulation of shark fishing and trade, which must lead to reductions in shark mortality, while managing trade‐offs between conservation objectives and the socioeconomic value of fisheries.  相似文献   

14.
唐议  盛燕燕  陈园园 《水产学报》2014,38(5):759-768
以底拖网为代表的深海底层渔业对深海脆弱海洋生态系统的危害受到国际社会的热切关注。2003年以来联合国大会多次通过决议,呼吁各国各自并通过RFMO/As采取行动,根据预防性原则,采用基于生态系统的管理方法,评估深海底层渔业对脆弱海洋生态系统的影响,若评估表明确有重大不利影响,则应采取有效措施限制深海底层渔业以降低这种影响;FAO主要从技术角度制定了《公海深海渔业管理国际指南》,为管理公海深海渔业和保护脆弱海洋生态系统提出了技术标准和管理框架;RFMO承担着具体执行深海底层渔业管理措施和监督管理的责任,在北大西洋、地中海、南太平洋的公海和南极水域,相关RFMO已采取了暂停部分区域底拖网渔业活动、收集数据、评估底拖网对脆弱海洋生态系统的影响等措施,在北太平洋,新成立的北太平洋渔业管理委员会将公海底层渔业管理作为首要目标。环保非政府组织和部分科学家呼吁禁止公海深海底层渔业,但各国对此的立场尚不一致,产业界大多持反对立场。近期来看,尚难以全面禁止公海的深海底层渔业。中国正在发展公海大洋渔业,需对此密切关注,加强跟踪研究以支撑决策,并应发展和使用选择性渔具和对生态环境无害的作业方式,防止对脆弱海洋生态系统产生损害性影响。  相似文献   

15.
We evaluate the current status of the global marine fisheries using the frameworks of conflict, food security and vulnerability. Existing trends suggest that there is likely to be greater food insecurity and fisheries conflicts due to issues such as: declining fishery resources; a North–South divide in investment; changing consumption patterns; increasing reliance on fishery resources for coastal communities; and inescapable poverty traps creating by low net resource productivity and few alternatives. Consequently, managing fisheries from a food security perspective will become increasingly necessary, and we therefore briefly review fisheries from the perspective of food security and evaluate it using a vulnerability framework. Specifically, we describe three key components of vulnerability (exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity) for selected fisheries. This is followed by proposals to build the adaptive capacity of fisheries and recommendations to avoid future conflicts. Adaptive capacity attributes include assets, social flexibility and organization attributes, and learning. We present some key ways to build these aspects of the fishery to reduce the many potential environmental and social threats that increase the vulnerability of fisheries. Recommendations include fewer subsidies, reduced capital investment, precautionary management to minimize risks of ecosystem collapse, conservation of remaining resources, diversified portfolios of production and markets, and greater equity in contracts and distribution. Further, we recommend a contextual diagnostic and environmental justice framework to assess a range of options for fishery governance.  相似文献   

16.
The precautionary approach to fisheries management advocates for risk-averse management strategies that include biological reference points and account for scientific uncertainty (i.e. process, model and observation uncertainty). In this regard, two approaches have been recommended: (a) biomass reference points to safeguard against low stock biomass, and (b) uncertainty buffers that reduce the catch limit as a function of the scientific uncertainty. This study compares the effectiveness of these two precautionary approaches in recovering over-exploited fish stocks. We evaluate the performance of more than 80 harvest control rules (HCRs) within a stochastic management strategy evaluation (MSE) framework for three stocks with contrasting life-history parameters and under various levels of scientific uncertainty. The results show that both approaches reduce the risk of overfishing at the expense of expected yield. This risk-yield trade-off strongly depends on the HCRs, life-history parameters of the species, as well as the level of the scientific uncertainty. Nevertheless, some combinations of biomass threshold and limit reference points as well as uncertainty buffers lead to a more favourable risk-yield trade-off than other rules. This study elucidates the multiple factors affecting the effectiveness of management strategies and highlights key features of HCRs for precautionary fisheries management.  相似文献   

17.
  • 1. Over the past two decades the number of fisheries targeting shark resources has increased dramatically. A combination of factors, including relatively slow growth rate, low fecundity and late age of maturity, result in low recovery rates from exploitation for most shark species. This, in turn, is reflected in the poor record of sustainability of shark fisheries.
  • 2. One of the greatest challenges is to find a way to deal with the substantial levels of shark bycatch taken in many non‐target fisheries. Poor general recording of shark landings and paucity of shark landing data at the species level also undermine the development of effective shark management strategies. 3. This paper reviews the problems that must be faced worldwide if shark resources are to be managed sustainably and lays out a comprehensive set of prioritized management strategies to facilitate the sustainable management of global shark fisheries. It is acknowledged that the majority of sharks are harvested in developing countries and that the management of shark resources in developing and developed countries will need to incorporate different management strategies relevant to local socio‐economic agendas. The management recommendations deal with methods to improve the global regulation of fisheries, ways to improve global conservation ethics and encourage active participation in management, as well as means by which specific management strategies may be implemented.
Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

18.
Interactions between fisheries and marine mammals have created costly and unresolved issues throughout the world. This study examines the spatial and resource overlaps between recolonising New Zealand sea lions, Phocarctos hookeri (Grey) (using satellite tracking) and local fisheries (using spatio‐temporal catch database) on the Otago coast, New Zealand. Around Otago, spatial and resource overlaps existed year‐round and it is predicted that incidental deaths in fishing gear and resource competition may arise as the sea lion population increases. Preventive management methods (e.g. marine protected areas) and monitoring studies (e.g. fish stock assessments) are proposed. The use of precautionary management could ensure sustainable profitable fisheries and successful recolonisation by sea lions around Otago, and it could be used as a case study for other areas with recovering marine mammal populations that interact with fisheries.  相似文献   

19.
Diagnosis and management of small-scale fisheries in developing countries   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
Small‐scale fisheries (SSF) make important but undervalued contributions to the economies of some of the world’s poorest countries. They also provide much of the animal protein needed by societies in which food security remains a pressing issue. Assessment and management of these fisheries is usually inadequate or absent and they continue to fall short of their potential as engines for development and social change. In this study, we bring together existing theory and methods to suggest a general scheme for diagnosing and managing SSF. This approach can be adapted to accommodate the diversity of these fisheries in the developing world. Many threats and solutions to the problems that beset SSF come from outside the domain of the fishery. Significant improvements in prospects for fisheries will require major changes in societal priorities and values, with consequent improvements in policy and governance. Changes in development policy and science reflect these imperatives but there remains a need for intra‐sectoral management that builds resilience and reduces vulnerability to those forces beyond the influence of small‐scale fishers.  相似文献   

20.
The role of spatial management, including marine protected areas, in achieving fisheries outcomes alongside conservation goals is debated. In fisheries that fail to meet fishing mortality targets, closed areas are sometimes implemented to reduce fishing mortality. However, fisheries with stronger management, including rights‐based approaches that can address overcapacity and overfishing problems, often employ spatial management as well. Here, we compare the objectives, design, and performance of spatial management in nine temperate demersal fisheries in North America, Oceania, Europe, and Africa that employ rights‐based systems. Common objectives of spatial management included protecting habitat, juveniles, and spawners and reducing discards. Recovering age structure and creating scientific reference sites were less common objectives, despite being widely cited benefits of spatial management. Some fisheries adopted single closures to achieve single objectives, whereas others adopted diverse networks to achieve multiple objectives. Importantly, many spatial protections are implemented primarily through industry initiatives. Environmental change compromised the efficacy of spatial management in some cases, suggesting the need to design spatial management systems that are robust to changing ocean conditions. Fisheries with diverse and extensive spatial management systems have generally healthier fish stocks. Whether this implies that spatial management contributed substantially to fishery performance is unclear due to an absence of large‐scale, long‐term studies aimed at discerning different drivers of success. Although these targeted monitoring studies of closed areas are limited, such studies are necessary to help resolve the ongoing debate and to enable more purposeful design of spatial management for fisheries and conservation.  相似文献   

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