区域气候模式PRECIS对中国气候的长期数值模拟试验

利用欧洲中心ERA40再分析资料驱动区域气候模式PRECIS,对中国地区进行了50km水平分辨率、40a(1961-2000年)时间长度的连续积分,并对模拟的温度和降水与观测资料进行了比较分析。结果表明:模式对中国地区温度和降水的年、季空间分布型态均具有一定的模拟能力,对温度和降水的年际变化也有较好的模拟效果,尤其对于20世纪80年代后期出现的暖冬以及1998年的夏季极端降水都有较好的体现。但模式不足在于区域内普遍存在模拟的气温略高于实况的系统性暖偏差,幅度一般在1~3℃;内蒙古和东北地区年降水量比观测值明显偏多,长江以南地区和四川盆地的降水中心范围都明显偏大,位置偏南。总体来看,无论是空间分布还是年际变化,模式对温度的模拟能力明显优于降水。     

A Two-Phase Optimization Model Based on Inexact Air Dispersion Simulation for Regional Air Quality Control

This study proposes a two-phase optimization model for regional air pollution control. To predict the pollutant concentrations at receptor zones, an interval Gaussian plume model is advanced to facilitate the generation of optimal pollution control policies. Results from the case study indicate satisfactory performance of the proposed model in handling uncertainties in parameters expressed as intervals and in stipulations associated with pollutant emission and ambient air quality. Compared with conventional models, it has advantages of generating compromised management strategies according to decision makers’ preference. This would be useful when the guarantee of satisfying all constraints is inapplicable or too costly. The proposed model is capable of identifying key factors and/or input conditions that may intensely affect system outputs and thus facilitating decision makers in adjusting current system status to benefit future management. The results also reveal a significantly enhanced satisfactory level would be obtained compared with conventional “single-phase”-based optimization models.     

区域水资源可持续发展能力的预测

在简要介绍可持续发展理论的基础上，提出运用西蒙理论评价水资源可持续发展的方法体系，并作出假设实例分析和深入探讨，指出了本研究中存在的不足和发展趋势。     

中国大陆无土栽培发展概况

近15年来,中国无土栽培的发展异常迅猛,1985年全国无土栽培的面积只有0.1hm²,1995年发展到50hm²。目前中国无土栽培的总面积约为315hm²,与5年前相比增长了3倍多,其中绝大部分都用于蔬菜生产,只有很小一部分用于花卉生产。目前中国生产上使用的无土栽培系统主要为有机生态型无土栽培系统、浮板毛管法、NFT、DFH和鲁-SC系统。存在的主要问题是如何降低无土栽培系统的投资、提高产量、改善品质、并不污染环境。有机生态型无土栽培能生产绿色食品蔬菜。该文主要介绍了中国无土栽培的历史、采用的主要无土栽培系统型式、无土栽培研究和推广工作进展以及无土栽培在中国的发展前景。     

地理信息系统在水质预警中的应用

为了能在一定范围内对水质进行预警 ,运用 GIS强大的空间分析功能 ,采用共享软件 ,并将预警结果与其它地理信息相叠加 ,定量研究水质预警 ;提出了 GIS支持下的水质预警的方法和流程 ;对吉林西部实例的研究结果表明将 GIS应用于水质预警 ,其方法精确、实用 ,而且有很高的推广价值。     

Reducing NO2 Pollution over Urban Areas: Air Quality Modelling as a Fundamental Management Tool

Recently, specific air quality problems have been detected in the northern region of Portugal. The nitrogen oxide (NO₂) annual limit value has been surpassed at several air quality monitoring stations in the northern region, and according to European legislation, air quality plans must be designed and implemented to reduce those levels. The analysis of the air quality data from the stations concerning NO₂ exceedances indicates that traffic is responsible for an increase of more than 40?% compared with the urban background value. Specific measures to reduce NOx emissions have been selected and are related not only mainly to the traffic sector but also to the industrial and residential combustion sectors. The main objective of this study is to investigate the impact of the selected measures on the ambient levels of NO₂ in northern Portugal using a numerical modelling tool??The Air Pollution Model (TAPM). TAPM was applied over the study region using a 120?×?120-km² simulation domain and a spatial resolution of 4.8?×?4.8?km². The entire year of 2010 was simulated and was set as the base year to analyse the impact of the selected measures. Two scenarios have been defined and simulated: the base situation, which considers current NOx emissions, and the reduction scenario for which NOx emissions were re-estimated considering the implementation of the measures. The modelling results demonstrate a decrease of 4?C5???g?m^?3 in the annual NO₂ levels in the study region. Moreover, the implementation of the selected measures will allow compliance with the NO₂ annual limit values in three of the five air quality stations that measured levels surpassing those established by legislation. This situation demands additional measures that should be implemented at the local level and that particularly focus on the traffic sector.     

全球气候变化背景下近五十年中国湿度区域变化趋势

全球气候变化对国家尺度的农业及环境决策影响显著,研究全球气候变化下农业环境问题,对于农业的可持续发展有着积极的意义.运用实测的相对湿度月平均值,采用趋势分析方法,分析了过去50 a中国大气湿度的动态变化.结果发现:在全球升温背景下,中国相对湿度区域变化以95°E为分界线,95°E以西区域湿度普遍呈增大趋势,说明在全球变暖背景下,中国西部的湿度增大,呈现“暖湿化”趋势;95°E以东地区基本以相对湿度减小为主,呈现“暖干化”趋势,但个别区域湿度增大.在升温比较一致的情况下,各地湿度变化的趋势不同,主要是由降水变化的区域差异引起的.西北干旱区湿度的增大,对于西北干旱区的生态环境有着重要的意义,有利于这一地区的农业发展.     

Numerical Simulation of the Springtime Trans-Boundary Air Pollution in East Asia

Water, Air, &; Soil Pollution - During the spring, the high concentrations of ozone (O3) and aerosols are frequently observed aloft in Japan. Such episodes supposedly are caused by the...     

A Nested Air Quality Prediction Modeling System for Urban and Regional Scales: Application for High-Ozone Episode in Taiwan

A nested air quality prediction modeling system (NAQPMS) has been developed to investigate the various processes that govern the loading of chemical species and anthropogenic aerosols at various scales of atmospheric motions in urban and regional scales. The model employs flexible horizontal grid resolution with multiple multi-level nested grids with options for one-way and two-way nesting procedures in a spherical and terrain-following coordinate. The NAQPMS is driven using meteorological fields from the NCAR/Penn State Fifth-Generation Mesoscale Model (MM5). Hourly pollutant levels of 71 stations covering Taiwan are used to evaluate the modeling system. Case simulation of a high-ozone episode occurred during April 13–15 1999 shows that the technique of the model nesting is capable of affording more realistic temporal and spatial structures of concentration fields, processes and precursors.     

区域滑坡频度预测和趋势研究

区域滑坡危险度评价是区域滑坡防灾减灾的重要研究内容.基于区域滑坡过去一定时期的滑坡资料对未来一定时期的滑坡发生频度预测和趋势研究可为区域滑坡危险度进行动态评价.结合三峡库区万州区滑坡资料,对其进行时间记录分析,研究其不同面积等级不同时间范围的Hurst指数经验关系.分别建立T时间范围1980-1990年,1980-1995年和滑坡面积M>1000 M2,M>10000m2,M>100000m2的Hurst指数经验关系.根据Hurst指数对其未来5a的滑坡频度的最大涨落范围进行预测.并分析时间相关函数与H值的函数关系,为滑坡发展趋势进行定量预测.研究表明,区域滑坡频度预测可为区域滑坡危险度进行动态评价.     

Evaluation of Air Injection and Extraction Tests at a Petroleum Contaminated Site,Korea

Air injection and extraction tests were conducted at a site where soils and groundwater were contaminated by petroleum hydrocarbons, mainly composed of TEX (toluene, ethylbenzene,and xylene). Storage tanks of petroleum hydrocarbons located less than 20 m away from the center of the test site were suspected to be the contamination source. Six injection/extraction wells and 21 monitoring wells were installed to evaluate performance and radius of influence with respect tosoil vapor extraction and air injection. Effective radius ofinfluence of the air injection tests based on pressure changes ranged from 3.3 to 10.5 m. Soil gas pressures, concentrationsof O₂, CH₄ and CO₂, and temperatures were measured during the tests. Air permeability and radii of influence with respect to gas pressure and oxygen supply by air injection were estimated. Dynamic changes in the concentrations of O₂, CH₄ and CO₂ gases and temperature around the extent of their ranges were detected asair was injected. We evaluated extensively the variations ofthe geochemical parameters that were indicative of active microbial degradation in this study.     

贵州石漠化区域气候效应的数值模拟

在地形坐标系中建立一个三维静力平衡的大气-土壤耦合模式,模式主要考虑了复杂地形和植被的热力及动力过程。与其它中、小尺度模式相比,此模式在地表与植被冠层建立的辐射平衡方程和能量平衡方程中,均详细考虑了坡向、坡度的影响。通过对贵州石漠化危险区最典型的贞丰县气候效应数值模拟表明:所采用的大气-土壤耦合模式,能较好模拟贵州石漠化区域气象要素的空间分布趋势;中等程度石漠化区域向高强度石漠化区域演变过程中,气温场表现为先轻微上升,上升到一定程度后剧烈下降,然后当其演变到强度石漠化程度后,继续向超强程度石漠化演变,其气温表现为剧烈的下降趋势。     

基于BP神经网络的杨梅大棚内气温预测模型研究

利用2009年12月-2010年5月塑料大棚内外观测的气象数据,构建了基于BP神经网络的杨梅生产大棚内的最高、最低气温预测模型,根据逐时转化系数计算出棚内相应的逐时气温,达到逐时预报大棚内气温的目的。通过模拟回代和对独立试验数据的验证,基于BP神经网络模型对大棚内日最低气温、日最高气温和逐时气温预测值与实际值的回归估计标准误差（RMSE）分别为0.8℃、1.4℃和0.7℃,精度明显高于同时利用逐步回归法建立的模型。该模型所需参数少,实用性强,模拟精度高,可为设施杨梅气象服务和环境调控提供依据。     

我国农业(种植业)机械化发展的区域不平衡性研究

该文阐述了进行农业机械化发展的地区比较研究的意义。在调查与分析我国各地区农业(主要是种植业)机械化发展情况的基础上,对农业机械化的发展进行了地区比较研究与综合评价。由于各地自然条件、社会经济条件、技术条件不同,我国农业机械化的发展呈现出明显的差异性和层次性,北方农业机械化的总体水平比南方高,西南是全国农业机械化水平最低、难度最大的地区。通过综合评分法和模糊聚类模型的计算,按照农业机械化发展水平,分为4类地区。提出我国农业机械化的发展应按北部、中部、南部来分类指导;实行分区决策、分类实施、重点突破、逐步推进的发展战略。     

大气环境与农业生产的相互影响

本文系统地评述了全球大气环境的变化，包括温室效应、大气污染、臭氧和酸雨对农业生产的直接或间接的影响；同时也分析了农业生产过程对大气环境，包括大气中ＣＯ＿２，ＣＨ＿４和Ｎ＿２Ｏ浓度的影响，在此基础上提出了控制全球大气环境变化的对策。     

Recovery of the Epiphytic Lichen Flora Following Air Quality Improvement in South-West Sweden

The development of the epiphytic lichen vegetation on tree trunks inside and nearby twelve towns and industrial areas in south-west Sweden was investigated 1986/88 and 1997 using a photographic technique. The lichen vegetation studied in terms of area cover as well as the air pollution sensitivity and preference for nitrogen of the individual lichens. During both surveys the lichen flora was strongly impoverished in urban areas compared to suburban areas and especially to the countryside (reference) areas nearby. The air pollution situation has improved in the area both before and during the study period. This holds especially for SO₂, to a lesser extent also for NO₂. Following the improvement of the air quality, an increased lichen area cover on the tree trunks was observed. Also the cumulative pollution sensitivity of the lichens present was higher in 1997 compared to 1986/88 in suburban and countryside areas. For the nitrogen impact, the increase from 1986/88 to 1997 was smaller than for pollution sensitivity, but still statistically significant. The trends are interpreted as signs of a normalisation of the lichen flora. It is concluded that the observed pattern of lichen recovery reflects the fact that the reduction of the air pollution level in the central parts of the towns is still not large enough to permit a large-scale recovery of the lichen flora, while in the suburban areas and the countryside next to the towns, the air quality has now improved to an extent, which permits the reinvasion of a number of lichens.     

中国的水土流失及其对区域环境的影响

中国是一个水土流失十分严重的国家,根据最新的普查资料,20世纪90年代末全国水土流失总面积356万km2,其中水蚀165万km2,风蚀191万km2。在水蚀和风蚀面积中,水蚀风蚀交错区水土流失面积为26万km2。严重的水土流失导致耕地减少,土地退化;泥沙淤积,加剧了洪涝灾害;影响水资源的分配和有效利用,加剧了干旱的发展;破坏湿地生态系统,调洪能力下降;污染水资源环境;提高了大气中CO2浓度,对周边环境造成巨大的影响。     

An Alternative Numerical Approach to Solve the Langevin Equation Applied to Air Pollution Dispersion

Because of concerns about the toxicity of lead (Pb), the use of antimony (Sb), indium (In), silver (Ag), and other heavy metals are on the increase as its replacement in many kinds of industrial products, particularly in solders. In the present study, effects of Pb, Cu, Sb, In, and Ag contamination on bacterial growth inhibition in PTYG (peptone, tryptone, yeast extract, glucose) liquid media, soil dehydrogenase activity, concentrations and compositions of phospholipids fatty acids (PLFA) were assessed. Survival rates of bacterial colony-forming units were lower in the presence of various concentrations of Pb, Cu, Sb, In, Ag, Zn and Ni than in their absence. Soil dehydrogenase activity in Arenic Eutric Regosol was much decreased when the concentrations of Pb and Cu were 50 times their natural abundance and when Ag was at 100 times its natural abundance. Soil dehydrogenase activity was also much decreased in Eutric Cambisol when Cu was 50 times, and Ag was 100 times, their natural abundances. In contrast, Sb and In did not affect soil dehydrogenase activity at any concentration or in any type of soil. Concentrations and composition of PLFA did not show any conspicuous change. Cu, Sb, In and, especially, Ag, which are increasingly being used to replace Pb, should be considered to be potentially toxic. However, when evaluating the impact of waste metals on the environment, heavy metal solubility, speciation and interaction with organic matter in soil must be considered.     

山西省区域生态环境质量综合评价研究

区域生态环境评价是制定区域经济社会可持续发展规划和生态环境保护对策的重要依据。实现国民经济和社会发展“十五”规划中新的经济发展目标，山西省将加快经济发展速度．这势必给山西省生态环境带来更大的压力。针对山西省生态环境脆弱实际，建立了科学的区域生态环境评价指标体系．并采用灰色综合评估法对全省区域生态环境质量现状进行了综合评价，在分析其结果的基础上，提出了山西省区域生态环境可持续发展对策。