Calculation and Mapping of Critical Loads for S, N and Acidity in China

Critical loads of nutrient and acidifying nitrogen, as well as of sulphur and acidity, were derived for various ecosystems in China using the steady state mass balance (SSMB) equations. The weathering rates of major soils necessary for applying SSMB were calculated through the PROFILE model on the basis of mineralogical data from experimental analysis. The growth uptakes of nitrogen and base cations were also derived by multiplying the annual increases in biomass with the element contents of the vegetation. Using a geographical information system (GIS), 1°(latitude)×1°(longitude) critical load maps of China with different percentiles were compiled. Results indicate that low critical loads of S (< 0.5 keq·ha^?1·a^?1) occurred predominately in southwest and northeast China, and the critical loads of southeast China were intermediate and in the range of 0.5～1.0 keq·ha^?1·a^?1. In addition, the critical loads of N were very low for desert ecosystems in northwest China and high for agricultural ecosystems in east China. Among the ecosystems with intermediate critical load of N, coniferous forests may be more sensitive to N deposition than broad-leaf forests and temperate steppes.     

Deriving critical loads for Asia

Critical loads have been computed and mapped in Southeast Asia, comprising China, Korea, Japan, The Philippines, Indo-China, Indonesia and the Indian subcontinent. The methodology involved the Steady-State Mass Balance (SSMB) method, originally developed for Europe. In contrast to Europe, where critical loads were computed for forest soils and surface waters, in Asia critical loads for 31 different vegetation types have been computed. Critical chemical limits as well as soil stability criteria were derived for each of these vegetation types, which include both natural and managed ecosystems. Results show that low critical loads in Asia occur in Bangla-Desh, Indo-China, Indonesia and the southern part of China. Uncertainties of the results are mainly due to uncertainties in base cation deposition. The critical loads are part of the impact module of the Asian version of the Regional Air pollution INformation and Simulation model (RAINS-Asia), a model used to assess abatement strategies for sulfur emissions which are rapidly increasing in this part of the world. The difference in the level of detail between European and Asian critical load maps enables different applications. In Europe, critical loads for sulphur were used in comparison to actual sulphur deposition with the aim of decreasing the excess of sulphur deposition over critical loads through optimal emission abatement. In Asia in general and China in particular the geographical distribution of critical loads of sensitive ecosystems, with some emphasis on crops, is likely to be used as a basis for future emission (re-)allocation.     

Quantifying Uncertainty in Critical Loads: (B) Acidity Mass Balance Critical Loads on a Sensitive Site

This paper reports an uncertainty analysis of critical loads for acid deposition for a site in southern England, using the Steady State Mass Balance Model. The uncertainty bounds, distribution type and correlation structure for each of the 18 input parameters was considered explicitly, and overall uncertainty estimated by Monte Carlo methods. Estimates of deposition uncertainty were made from measured data and an atmospheric dispersion model, and hence the uncertainty in exceedance could also be calculated. The uncertainties of the calculated critical loads were generally much lower than those of the input parameters due to a “compensation of errors” mechanism – coefficients of variation ranged from 13% for CL_maxN to 37% for CL(A). With 1990 deposition, the probability that the critical load was exceeded was > 0.99; to reduce this probability to 0.50, a 63% reduction in deposition is required; to 0.05, an 82% reduction. With 1997 deposition, which was lower than that in 1990, exceedance probabilities declined and uncertainties in exceedance narrowed as deposition uncertainty had less effect. The parameters contributing most to the uncertainty in critical loads were weathering rates, base cation uptake rates, and choice of critical chemical value, indicating possible research priorities. However, the different critical load parameters were to some extent sensitive to different input parameters. The application of such probabilistic results to environmental regulation is discussed.     

Estimating uncertainty in the current critical loads exceedance models

The critical loads approach to quantifying areas at risk of damage requires deposition and critical loads data at the same spatial scale to calculate exceedance. While maps of critical loads for soil acidification are available at a 1 km scale no monitoring networks in Europe measure wet and dry inputs at this scale and, further, the models currently used to estimate deposition incorporate a number of assumptions which are not valid at the 1 km scale. Simulations of 1 km deposition from 20 km data show that the uncertainty introduced by using 20 km scale estimates of deposition is small, except in mountain areas where it can give misleading results, but a major problem is the uncertainty in estimates of deposition at the 20 km scale produced by the current models.     

Estimating the Effect of Abiotic Factors on Modifying the Sensitivity of Vegetation to Nitrogen Deposition: An Application of Endorsement Theory

Many natural and semi-natural vegetation communities are sensitive to eutrophication; most eutrophication is caused by human activities. Critical loads have been developed in Europe to provide an effects-based approach to pollutant abatement including nitrogen deposition. Critical loads to protect ecosystems from eutrophication from excess nitrogen are only specified for very broad habitat types (e.g., ‘dry heaths’) and as a range of values (e.g., between 10 and 20 kg N ha^?1 year^?1). There may be considerable variation in vegetation communities within a broad habitat and there is a requirement (e.g., from conservation agencies, etc.) for more precise critical loads for more clearly specified receptors (habitats, vegetation communities). This paper demonstrates the use of endorsement theory to rationalise incomplete, qualitative and conflicting information on abiotic parameters (e.g., climate, management) that may influence the vegetation response to nitrogen deposition and hence, the critical loads. The endorsement theory approach is tested for 22 heathland community types in the UK (as described by the National Vegetation Classification of Rodwell, Cambridge University Press, vol. 3, 1991) to determine if the critical load for a community should be nearer the upper or lower limit of the published ranges. The results give a ‘confident’ endorsement for one heath community and a ‘likely’ endorsement for a further 13 communities for a critical load at the lower limit. The endorsements suggest that the critical load for most heaths should be at the lower end of the range meaning that current estimates of the exceeded area calculated using the mid-point of the range is an underestimate.     

Critical loads for nitrogen deposition for Great Britain

There is currently much interest in mapping critical loads for nitrogen deposition as part of a strategy for controlling nitrogen emissions. While nitrogen deposition may cause acidification and excess nutrient effects, the former were considered previously in studies of sulphur deposition. In the UK, work on developing nutrient nitrogen critical loads maps has used several methods and databases. Two approaches are described here, one a steady state calculation using a nitrogen saturation limit for soil systems, the other an empirical estimate of critical loads set to prevent changes to vegetation communities. The empirical method uses national species records and land cover data derived from satellite imagery. Maps drawn from the available data are dependent upon a number of factors which reflect the approach used. To apply the nutrient critical loads to a strategy for future abatement measures, the nutrient nitrogen values for soils have been incorporated within a “critical loads function” which takes into account both acidity and nutrient effects as related to deposition loads for sulphur and nitrogen. This function may be used with deposition data to identify the need for sulphur and nitrogen emission reductions.     

Critical loads of acid deposition for forest ecosystems in the Kola Peninsula

We assessed critical loads of acid deposition and their exceedance for soils in the Kola Peninsula using a simple balance method and mapped them within 1.0° × 0.5° longitude/latitude grid cells. Critical loads of acidity vary from 200 to 800 mol_c/ha/y with the type of soil, parent rock, vegetation and climatic conditions. The critical deposition values are dominated by S contribution. Present sulphur depositions are higher than critical values in the large part of the Kola Peninsula (about 40% of total area). The greatest excess (800–1200 mol_c/ha/y) occur in north-western and western parts, especially in surroundings of nickel smelter in Nickel. Terrestrial ecosystems in the north-western Kola Peninsula are particularly susceptible to acid deposition damage due to relatively high soil sensitivity and heavy sulphur deposition.     

The effects of scale and resolution in developing percentile maps of critical loads for the UK

Critical loads are estimated in the UK by the Department of Environment's Critical Loads Advisory Group and sub-groups. The Mapping and Data Centre at ITE Monks Wood acts as the National Focal Centre for the UNECE programme for mapping critical loads. The centre is responsible for the generation of UK data sets and their application for national and European purposes. To make effective use of these data, it is necessary to draw upon other environmental data and examine the issues of scale, uncertainty and the way that data are presented. This paper outlines the methodologies which have been employed to derive national maps. Early critical load maps were not vegetation specific, but now critical loads for acidity and for nutrient nitrogen for soils, critical levels maps for ozone and sulphur dioxide, and sulphur deposition maps, have been generated on a vegetation or ecosystem specific basis. These have been used to derive a number of different types of critical load and exceedance maps. The results show the importance of the method selected and the data used for the interpretation. The visualisation of critical loads and the corresponding exceedance data is an important aspect in producing information for pollution abatement strategies.     

Calculating Critical Loads of Sulfur Deposition for 100 Surface Waters in China Using the Magic Model

Although decades of acid deposition have apparently not resulted in surface water acidification in China, some surface waters may have the potential trend of being acidified, especially those in southern China. In this paper, a dynamic acidification model–MAGIC was applied to 100 surface waters in southern and northeastern China to evaluate the impact of acid deposition to surface waters and to determine their critical loads of S deposition, both regions having distinguishing soil, geological and acid deposition characteristics. Results indicate that most surface waters included in this paper are not sensitive to acid deposition, with critical loads of S for these waters comparatively high. On the other hand, surface waters in southern China, especially those in Fujian, Jiangxi and Guangdong provinces, are more susceptible to acidification than those in northeastern China, which coincides with their different patterns of soil, geological and acid deposition conditions. Among all the waters, a few small ponds, such as those on top of the Jinyun mountain and Emei mountain, are the most sensitive to acid deposition with critical loads of 1.84 and 3.70 keq·ha^?1·yr^?1, respectively. For the considerable ANC remaining in most 100 surface waters, it is not likely that acidification will occur in the near future for these waters.     

Uncertainty analysis of critical loads for terrestrial ecosystems in Russia

The goal of this study is to give a comprehensive and quantitative estimation of the uncertainty of computed in different scale nitrogen (N) and sulphur (S) critical loads (CL) values for terrestrial ecosystems of the Northern Asia, European part and the North-Western regions of Russia. The CL values are used to set goals for future deposition rates of acidifying compounds so that the environment is protected. In this research CL values for terrestrial ecosystems are determined using the expert-modelling geoinformation system (EM GIS) approach. UNCSAM software package is used as the tool for uncertainty analysis. The analysis presented here focuses on the estimation and effect of the input source uncertainties and sensitivities on the CL values in various regions under study. In spite of the region, nitrogen uptake by vegetation, nitrogen leaching from terrestrial ecosystems and the difference between deposition and uptake by plants of base cations (BC) are the most influential factors for all terrestrial ecosystems of Russia.     

Critical Loads of Acid Deposition for Ecosystems in South China — Derived by a New Method

Critical loads of acid deposition for ecosystems in South China are derived by synthesizing the critical loads of acid deposition for soils, the critical loads of SO₂ dry deposition for ecosystems, as well their exceedance. The results show in the southeast of Sichuan province around Chongqing municipality, the central and north of Guizhou province around Guiyang municipality, and the most areas of Jiangsu province, both the critical loads for soils and critical loads of SO₂ dry deposition are exceeded. In Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region and some areas among Jiangxi, Zhejiang and Anhui provinces, the critical loads of SO₂ dry deposition is the only restricting factor. There is no area where the critical load for soil is the only restricting factor in South China, so only the critical load for soil is not enough to be the basis to make sulfur abatement scheme.     

Assessment of critical loads in liuzhou,China using static and dynamic models

The project Comprehensive Control and Demonstration for Acid Deposition in Liuzbou area is a national key project in the 8th Five-year-plan, and the study on critical loads will provide scientific and quantitative accordance for formulating control strategy. In this paper, critical loads of acid deposition to soil in Lirzhou area, China, were calculated using the Steady State Mass Balance method (SMB and PROFILE) and dynamic modeling methods(MAGIC), based on data obtained from field investigations and physiochemical properties measured through experiments such as the organic content, cation exchange capacity, base saturation, sulfate adsorption capacity, gibbsite coefficient, biomass base cation uptake and selectivity coefficient for cations. Weathering rates necessary to calculate soil chemistry in applying SMB and MAGIC model were determined by computation with PROFILE using independent geophysical properties such as soil texture and mineralogy as the input data, or by the total soil base cation content correlation. The results have shown that the critical loads of acidity in this area are in the range of 0.7–6.0 keq ha^–1 yr^–1, indicating sulfur deposition should be cut down by 50–90 percent of the present level. The upper soil layer is the most sensitive. The maximum allowable deposition loading of this area is also presented in the paper.     

Deposition and Critical Loads of Nitrogen in Switzerland

Many ecosystems in Switzerland suffer from eutrophication due to increased atmospheric nitrogen (N) input. In order to get an overview of the problem, critical loads for nutrient N were mapped with a resolution of 1×1 km applying two methods recommended by the UN/ECE: the steady state mass balance method for productive forests, and the empirical method for semi-natural vegetation, such as natural forests, (sub-)alpine or species-rich grassland and raised bogs. The national forest inventory and a detailed atlas of vegetation types were used to identify the areas sensitive to N input. The total N input was calculated as the sum of NO₃ ^?, NH₄ ⁺, NH₃, NO₂ and HNO₃ wet and dry deposition. Wet deposition was determined on the basis of a precipitation map and concentration measurements. Dry deposition was calculated with inferential methods including land-use specific deposition velocities. The concentration fields for NH₃ and NO₂ were obtained from emission inventories combined with dispersion models. Reduced N compounds account for 63% of total deposition in Switzerland. As indicated by exceeded critical loads, the highest risk for harmful effects of N deposition (decrease of ecosystem stability, species shift and losses) is expected on forests and raised bogs in the lowlands, where local emissions are intense. At high altitudes and in dry inner-alpine valleys, deposition rates are significantly lower.     

Critical loads of sulfur and nitrogen for lakes II: Regional extent and variability in Finland

The concept of critical loads has been developed to assist in the design of environmentally sound abatement strategies for the emissions of acidifying compounds. In this paper the critical loads of S and N for lakes in Finland are computed and mapped, based on methods presented in an accompanying paper. The employed steady-state mass balance model allows the simultaneous evaluation of the reductions required of S and N deposition exceeding these critical loads. Special emphasis has been put on the presentation of the spatial variability and the uncertainty of the critical loads and their exceedances. The derived critical loads of S and N for lakes in Finland show a substantial spatial variability. The highest exceedance of critical loads is presently estimated in the south-east of the country, where up to 80% of the lakes show an exceedance of the critical loads of S. The evaluation of two emission scenarios shows that only “maximum feasible reductions” would be sufficient for protecting most Finnish lakes from the impacts of acidic deposition. The results of this study form a basis for setting national targets for emission reductions in Finland.     

An integrated analysis of sulfur emissions,acid deposition and climate change

This paper presents one of the first integrated analyses of acidification and climate change on a geographically-detailed basis, and the first linkage of integrated models for acid deposition (RAINS) and for climate change (IMAGE 2). Emphasis in this paper is on Europe. Trends in driving forces of emissions are used to compute anthropogenic SO₂ emissions in 13 world regions. These emissions are translated into regional patterns of sulfur deposition in Europe and global patterns of sulfate aerosols using source-receptor matrices. Changes in climate are then computed based on changes in sulfate and greenhouse gases. Finally, we compute ecosystem areas affected by acid deposition and climate change based on exceedances of critical loads and changes in potential vegetation. Using this framework, information from global and regional integrated models can be used to link sulfur emissions with both their global and regional consequences. Preliminary calculations indicate that the size of European area affected by climate change in 2100 (58%) will be about the same as that affected by acid deposition in 1990. By the mid 21st century, about 14% of Europe's area may be affected by both acid deposition and climate change. Also, reducing sulfur emissions in Europe will have both the desirable impact of reducing the area affected by acid deposition, and the undesirable impact of enhancing climate warming in Europe and thus increasing the area affected by climate change. However, for the scenarios in this paper, the desirable impact of reducing sulfur emissions greatly outweighs its undesirable impact.     

Nitrogen critical loads for natural and semi-natural ecosystems: The empirical approach

One of the major threats to the structure and the functioning of natural and semi-natural ecosystems is the recent increase in air-borne nitrogen pollution (NH_y and NO_x). Ecological effects of increased N supply are reviewed with respect to changes in vegetation and fauna in terrestrial and aquatic natural and semi-natural ecosystems. Observed and validated changes using data of field surveys, experimental studies or, of dynamic ecosystem models (the empirical approach), are used as an indication for the impacts of N deposition. Based upon these data N critical loads are set with an indication of the reliability. Critical loads are given within a range per ecosystem, because of spatial differences in ecosystems. The following groups of ecosystems have been treated: softwater lakes, wetlands & bogs, species-rich grasslands, heathlands and forests. In this paper the effects of N deposition on softwater lakes have been discussed in detail and a summary of the N critical loads for all groups of ecosystems is presented. The nitrogen critical load for the most sensitive ecosystems (softwater lakes, ombrotrophic bogs) is between 5–10 kg N ha^–1 yr^–1, whereas a more average value for the range of studied ecosystems is 15–20 kg N ha^–1 yr^–1. Finally, major gaps in knowledge with respect to N critical loads are identified.     

Quantifying Uncertainty in Critical Loads: (A) Literature Review

Critical loads are the basis for policies controlling emissions of acidic substances in Europe. The implementation of these policies involves large expenditures, and it is reasonable for policymakers to ask what degree of certainty can be attached to the underlying critical load and exceedance estimates. This paper is a literature review of studies which attempt to estimate the uncertainty attached to critical loads. Critical load models and uncertainty analysis are briefly outlined. Most studies have used Monte Carlo analysis of some form to investigate the propagation of uncertainties in the definition of the input parameters through to uncertainties in critical loads. Though the input parameters are often poorly known, the critical load uncertainties are typically surprisingly small because of a “compensation of errors” mechanism. These results depend on the quality of the uncertainty estimates of the input parameters, and a “pedigree” classification for these is proposed. Sensitivity analysis shows that some input parameters are more important in influencing critical load uncertainty than others, but there have not been enough studies to form a general picture. Methods used for dealing with spatial variation are briefly discussed. Application of alternative models to the same site or modifications of existing models can lead to widely differing critical loads, indicating that research into the underlying science needs to continue.     

Dynamic Modelling of Spatially Variable Catchment Hydrochemistry for Critical Loads Assessment

Concern about acidification in upland areas has brought about the need to model the stream hydrochemical response to deposition and land-use changes and calculate critical loads. Application of dynamic models such as MAGIC are preferable to steady-state methods, since they are able to produce an estimate of the time scale required to meet some water chemistry target given a reduction in acid deposition. These models typically consider annual changes in stream chemistry at one point. However, in order to protect biota from 'acid episodes', quantification of temporal variability needs to encompass event responses; in addition spatial variability across the catchment also needs to be considered. In this paper, modelling of both spatial and temporal variability is combined in a new framework which enables quantification of catchment hydrochemical variability in time and space. Both low and high flow hydro-chemical variability are quantified in terms of statistical distributions of ANC (Acid Neutralisation Capacity). These are then input as stochastic variables to an EMMA (End-Member Mixing Analysis) model which accounts for temporal variability and ANC is hence predicted as a function of time and space across the whole catchment using Monte-Carlo simulation. The method is linked to MAGIC to predict future scenarios and may be used by iteration to calculate critical loads. The model is applied to the headwaters of the River Severn at Plynlimon, Wales, to demonstrate its capabilities.     

Testing the Feasibility of Using the ForSAFE-VEG Model to Map the Critical Load of Nitrogen to Protect Plant Biodiversity in the Rocky Mountains Region, USA

The ForSAFE-VEG model was used to estimate atmospheric nitrogen deposition and climate effects on soil chemistry and ground vegetation in alpine and subalpine zones of the northern and central Rocky Mountains region in the USA from 1750 to 2500. Model simulations for a generalized site illustrated how the critical load of atmospheric nitrogen deposition could be estimated to protect plant biodiversity. The results appear reasonable compared with past model applications in northern Europe. Atmospheric N deposition critical loads estimated to protect plant biodiversity were 1 to 2 kg N/ha/year. This range could be greater, depending on the values selected for critical site-specific parameters (precipitation, temperature, soil chemistry, plant nutrient uptake, and any eventual harvest of biomass) and the amount of biodiversity change allowed.     

Identifying Potentials for Reducing Uncertainty in Critical Load Calculations using the PROFILE Model

A sensitivity analysis was performed testingweathering rates, critical loads andexceedances for Swedish forest soils using Monte Carlosimulations of the PROFILE model. Different subsetsof input data were investigated with respect to theirpotential to reduce data uncertainty at site level butalso for modified estimates of the 5%-ile critical load andthe 95%-ile exceedance on 150×150 kmresolution. Physical soil properties were of dominantimportance for all sites and yield up to 62%reduction of the output standard deviation in weathering rate.The study showed that the critical ratio ofbase cations to inorganic aluminium (Bc/Al ratio) in the soilsolution was of major importance for reducingdata uncertainty in critical loads and exceedance estimates.The critical Bc/Al ratio was found to beimportant for reducing data uncertainties in modifiedestimates of the 5%-ile critical load and the95%-ile exceedance, in particular in the northern part ofSweden. Atmospheric deposition, uptake andlitterfall were more important for reducing data uncertaintyin the southern part. Physical soil propertiesand especially mineral content were found to be less importantfor reducing data uncertainties in criticalloads and exceedance estimates. The greatest scope forreducing data uncertainties in an applied perspectiveis to improve estimates of atmospheric deposition of anionsand cations as well as uptake and litterfall ofbase cations and nitrogen.