Categorising the risks in fisheries management

Abstract The many risks associated with fisheries management can be attributed to the substantial uncertainties that exist within fishery systems and their numerous possible consequences for fishers and fish stocks. Compounding these risks are the possible disparities between different fisheries professionals on the nature and source of these risks. This paper attempts to categorise the risks as reported by fishery scientists and managers in Australia and along the US Atlantic Coast. Through the use of semi‐structured interview data, this paper attempts to provide a categorisation of the risks identified by fisheries professionals; and to compare the identified risks by professional group and by country. The analysis yields three broad categories and 12 subcategories of risk found in both nations. Results indicate that: (1) fisheries management risks can be broadly categorised through interview data; (2) the frequency of identification of a particular risk category reflects the management system in which they operate; and (3) risk categorisation could be useful from a risk management perspective as risks in different categories may be evaluated and managed using different risk management approaches.     

我国渔业风险综合管理研究

渔业风险管理是渔业经济持续健康发展的重要保障。在科学厘定渔业风险综合管理范畴的基础上,指出我国渔业高风险及风险管理低效率的困境在于割裂了渔业风险间的联系及渔业与其他产业的关联性、管理方式单一性和风险作用的复杂性,并从渔业风险管理的基本环境管理、致险因子管理、体制机制管理等方面明确渔业风险综合管理的新思路,提出从组织机构健全、法律法规完善、风险基金设立及渔业风险信息系统建设等方面推进渔业风险综合管理,提高我国渔业抵御风险和降低风险的能力。     

Multispecies fisheries management and conservation: tactical applications using models of intermediate complexity

Stakeholders increasingly expect ecosystem assessments as part of advice on fisheries management. Quantitative models to support fisheries decision‐making may be either strategic (‘big picture’, direction‐setting and contextual) or tactical (focused on management actions on short timescales), with some strategic models informing the development of tactical models. We describe and review ‘Models of Intermediate Complexity for Ecosystem assessments’ (MICE) that have a tactical focus, including use as ecosystem assessment tools. MICE are context‐ and question‐driven and limit complexity by restricting the focus to those components of the ecosystem needed to address the main effects of the management question under consideration. Stakeholder participation and dialogue is an integral part of this process. MICE estimate parameters through fitting to data, use statistical diagnostic tools to evaluate model performance and account for a broad range of uncertainties. These models therefore address many of the impediments to greater use of ecosystem models in strategic and particularly tactical decision‐making for marine resource management and conservation. MICE are capable of producing outputs that could be used for tactical decision‐making, but our summary of existing models suggests this has not occurred in any meaningful way to date. We use a model of the pelagic ecosystem in the Coral Sea and a linked catchment and ocean model of the Gulf of Carpentaria, Australia, to illustrate how MICE can be constructed. We summarize the major advantages of the approach, indicate opportunities for the development of further applications and identify the major challenges to broad adoption of the approach.     

Real options for precautionary fisheries management

The 1996 Food and Agriculture Organization’s (FAO) ‘Guidelines on the Precautionary Approach to Fisheries and Species Introduction’ raise important issues for fisheries managers, but fail to prescribe an approach for risk management. The distinguishing characteristics of the ‘precautionary approach’ are the inclusion of uncertainty and ‘an elaboration on the burden of proof’. The FAO precautionary approach emphasizes that managers should be risk‐averse, but does not provide tools for determining the appropriate degree of risk aversion. Consequently, application of the precautionary approach often leads to decision‐making based on ad hoc safety margins. These safety margins are seldom chosen with explicit consideration of trade‐offs. If the emphasis was shifted to choosing between competing uncertainties, then managers could manage risk. By attempting to avoid risk, managers may gain exposure to other risks and perhaps miss valuable opportunities. We place fishery management problems within the rubric of ‘real investment’ problems, and compare and contrast the consideration of risk by alternative investment frameworks. We show that traditional investment frameworks are inappropriate for fishery management, and furthermore, that traditional precautionary approaches are arbitrary and without basis in decision theory. Quantitative decision‐making techniques, such as formal decision analysis (FDA), enable integration of competing hypotheses that help alleviate burden‐of‐proof issues. These techniques help analysts consider sources of uncertainty. FDA, however, can still be subject to arbitrary safety margins because such analyses often focus on determining which strategies best achieve, or avoid, targets that have been established without complete consideration of trade‐offs. A managerial finance approach, real options analysis (ROA), is an alternative and complementary decision‐making technique that enables managers to compute precautionary adjustments that couple the size of the ‘safety margin’ with the amount of uncertainty, thereby optimizing risk exposure and avoiding the need for arbitrary safety margins. We illustrate the advantages of an approach that combines FDA and ROA, using a heuristic example about a decision to re‐introduce Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.) into Lake Ontario. Finally, we provide guidance on applying ROA to other fishery problems. The precautionary approach requires that managers consider risk, but considering risk is not the same as managing it. Here ROA is useful.     

The behavioural dynamics of fishers: management implications

In pursuing their livelihood, fishers develop strategies when faced with changes in regulations and other fishery conditions. Changes involve each individual in a decision‐making process governed by his/her own goals or constraints. Despite this reality, the complex dynamics of fishing has usually been ignored in designing management initiatives, which has contributed to management failures in many parts of the world. Fishers have generally been treated as fixed elements, with no consideration of individual attitudes based on their operating scales (geographical, ecological, social and economic) and personal goals. We review existing research on the social, economic and behavioural dynamics of fishing to provide insight into fisher behaviour and its implications for fisheries management. Emphasis is placed on fisher perception, and how fishers develop dynamic fishing tactics and strategies as an adaptive response to changes in resource abundance, environmental conditions and market or regulatory constraints. We conclude that knowledge of these dynamics is essential for effective management, and we discuss how such information can be collected, analysed and integrated into fisheries assessment and management. Particular emphasis is placed on small‐scale fisheries, but some examples from industrial fleets are provided to highlight similar issues in different types of fisheries.     

Is risk consistent across tier‐based harvest control rule management systems? A comparison of four case‐studies

There can be substantial differences in data quality and quantity among fished species. Consequently, the quality and type of assessments can also vary substantially. However, all species, especially those that are targeted, need to be managed. Several jurisdictions have developed hierarchical tier systems that categorize stocks based on, for example, the data available for assessment purposes and/or the extent to which quantities on which management advice is based can be estimated. Four case‐studies (Australia's Southern and Eastern Scalefish and Shark Fishery, the USA west coast groundfishery, the USA Alaskan crab fishery and EU fisheries) are used to contrast the types of hierarchical tier systems available, and to assess the extent to which each system constrains risk to be equivalent among the tiers (termed risk equivalency). Only the Australian system explicitly aims to achieve risk equivalency. However, this intent has not been fully operationalized. Our review reveals that best practice is not to define tiers simply on data availability, but also on what the assessments based on those data are capable of estimating. In addition, clearly differentiating the quantification of uncertainty from how decision‐makers wish to address that uncertainty would simplify justification of buffers (the gap between the assessment‐produced target catch or effort and the final management decision that accounts for uncertainty and risk). Risk equivalency can be achieved using management strategy evaluation to select the values for control variables, which determine the buffer given the uncertainty associated with the assessment.     

Contribution of marine fisheries to worldwide employment

Marine fisheries contribute to the global economy, from the catching of fish through to the provision of support services for the fishing industry. General lack of data and uncertainty about the level of employment in marine fisheries can lead to underestimation of fishing effort and hence over‐exploited fisheries, or result in inaccurate projections of economic and societal costs and benefits. To address this gap, a database of marine fisheries employment for 144 coastal nations was compiled. Gaps in employment data that emerged were filled using a Monte Carlo approach to estimate the number of direct and indirect fisheries jobs. We focused on estimating jobs in the small‐scale fishing sector. We characterized small‐scale fishing as (i) primarily geared towards household consumption or sale at the local level; (ii) conducted at a low level of economic activity; (iii) minimally mechanized; (iv) conducted within inshore areas; (v) minimally managed; and/or (vi) undertaken for cultural or ceremonial purposes. In total, we estimated that 260 ± 6 million people are involved in global marine fisheries, encompassing full‐time and part‐time jobs in the direct and indirect sectors, with 22 ± 0.45 million of those being small‐scale fishers. This is equivalent to 203 ± 34 million full‐time equivalent jobs. Study results can be used to improve management decision making and highlight the need to improve monitoring and reporting of the number of people employed in marine fisheries globally.     

Expanding the concept of sustainable seafood using Life Cycle Assessment

Fisheries management and sustainability assessment of fisheries more generally have recently expanded their scope from single‐species stock assessment to ecosystem‐based approaches, aiming to incorporate economic, social and local environmental impacts, while still excluding global‐scale environmental impacts. In parallel, Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) has emerged as a widely used and recommended framework to assess environmental impacts of products, including global‐scale impacts. For over a decade, LCA has been applied to seafood supply chains, leading to new insights into the environmental impact of seafood products. We present insights from seafood LCA research with particular focus on evaluating fisheries management, which strongly influences the environmental impact of seafood products. Further, we suggest tangible ways in which LCA could be taken up in management. By identifying trade‐offs, LCA can be a useful decision support tool and avoids problem shifting from one concern (or activity) to another. The integrated, product‐based and quantitative perspective brought by LCA could complement existing tools. One example is to follow up fuel use of fishing, as the production and combustion of fuel used dominates overall results for various types of environmental impacts of seafood products, and is also often linked to biological impacts of fishing. Reducing the fuel use of fisheries is therefore effective to reduce overall impacts. Allocating fishing rights based on environmental performance could likewise facilitate the transition to low‐impact fisheries. Taking these steps in an open dialogue between fishers, managers, industry, NGOs and consumers would enable more targeted progress towards sustainable fisheries.     

Opportunities to improve fisheries management through innovative technology and advanced data systems

Fishery‐dependent data are integral to sustainable fisheries management. A paucity of fishery data leads to uncertainty about stock status, which may compromise and threaten the economic and food security of the users dependent upon that stock and increase the chances of overfishing. Recent developments in the technology available to collect, manage and analyse fishery‐relevant data provide a suite of possible solutions to update and modernize fisheries data systems and greatly expand data collection and analysis. Yet, despite the proliferation of relevant consumer technology, integration of technologically advanced data systems into fisheries management remains the exception rather than the rule. In this study, we describe the current status, challenges and future directions of high‐tech data systems in fisheries management in order to understand what has limited their adoption. By reviewing the application of fishery‐dependent data technology in multiple fisheries sectors globally, we show that innovation is stagnating as a result of lack of trust and cooperation between fishers and managers. We propose a solution based on a transdisciplinary approach to fishery management that emphasizes the need for collaborative problem‐solving among stakeholders. In our proposed system, data feedbacks are a key component to effective fishery data systems, ensuring that fishers and managers collect, have access to and benefit from fisheries data as they work towards a mutually agreed‐upon goal. A new approach to fisheries data systems will promote innovation to increase data coverage, accuracy and resolution, while reducing costs and allowing adaptive, responsive, near real‐time management decision‐making to improve fisheries outcomes.     

Managing non‐native fish in the environment

Non‐native fishes are frequently used to enhance aquaculture and fisheries; if introduced into the wider environment, then the majority will have negligible effects on native biodiversity. However, a minority will become invasive, causing adverse ecological effects, and so management actions may be needed to minimize their dispersal and impacts. These actions include eradication attempts from specific waters or well‐defined spatial areas, population control by suppression (e.g. through removal programmes) and containment of existing populations to prevent their further spread. These remedial actions have generally only been undertaken across large spatial areas in developed countries; experience suggests a fundamental constraint is a lack of selective removal methods that target the non‐native fish species only. For example, eradication methods tend to be limited to low technology, ‘scorched‐earth’ techniques (e.g. biocide chemicals) whose use is generally constrained to relatively small and enclosed water bodies. Risk management of non‐native fishes should ensure that actions taken are commensurate with the level of risk posed by that species in the environment; although pre‐introduction risk assessment schemes have been developed, there remains a lack of decision support tools for post‐introduction situations. Although this inhibits the management of non‐native fishes in the environment, control programmes such as those against common carp Cyprinus carpio in Australia and topmouth gudgeon Pseudorasbora parva in England and Wales suggest there is potential for invasions to be managed and controlled within large spatial areas, even if their eradication may not be feasible.     

GIS‐based ecological risk assessment for contaminated sites by fish farm effluents using a multicriteria weight of evidence approach

In this study, an integrative weight of evidence (WOE) tetrad methodology was developed and used to assess environmental quality and ecological risk at contaminated sites by fish farm effluents using spatial modelling tools [geographical information systems (GIS) and fuzzy logic and multicriteria analysis (MCA)], taking into account the results of four lines of evidence (LOE): the physico‐chemical characteristics of water and sediment, acute toxicity bioassays, biomarkers and the in situ alteration of benthic communities. The methodology was tested in the Rio San Pedro salt marsh creek in southwestern Spain. The proposed approach allowed for a quantitative spatial characterization of ecological risk and a better discrimination based on various types of physical, chemical and biological data. The methodology illustrates how GIS spatial models may be used in conjunction with other tools such as fuzzy logic and MCA to assist in decision‐making processes based on multiple environmental quality criteria and lines of evidence, with the transparency, objectivity and synoptic ability required to address environmental management problems in general and the management of contaminated marine areas affected by fish farms in particular.     

A typology of fisheries management tools: using experience to catalyse greater success

Fisheries provide nutrition and livelihoods for coastal populations, but many fisheries are fully or over‐exploited and we lack an approach for analysing which factors affect management tool performance. We conducted a literature review of 390 studies to assess how fisheries characteristics affected management tool performance across both small‐scale and large‐scale fisheries. We defined success as increased or maintained abundance or biomass, reductions in fishing mortality or improvements in population status. Because the literature only covered a narrow set of biological factors, we also conducted an expert elicitation to create a typology of broader fishery characteristics, enabling conditions and design considerations that affect performance. The literature suggested that the most commonly used management tool in a region was often the most successful, although the scale of success varied. Management tools were more often deemed successful when used in combination, particularly pairings of tools that controlled fishing mortality or effort with spatial management. Examples of successful combinations were the use of catch limits with quotas and limited entry, and marine protected areas with effort restrictions. The most common factors associated with inadequate biological performance were ‘structural’ issues, including poor design or implementation. The expert‐derived typologies revealed strong local leadership, high community involvement and governance capacity as common factors of success across management tool categories (i.e. input, output and technical measures), but the degree of importance varied. Our results are designed to inform selection of appropriate management tools based on empirical data and experience to increase the likelihood of successful fisheries management.     

Primary fisheries management: a minimum requirement for provision of sustainable human benefits in small‐scale fisheries

The social and economic importance of small‐scale fisheries is frequently under‐valued, and they are rarely effectively managed. There is now growing consensus on how these fisheries could be managed for sustainability and to minimize the risks of crossing undesirable thresholds. Using a concept developed in health care, these approaches have been referred to as primary fisheries management. By encouraging the use of best‐available information in a precautionary way, the approaches will facilitate sustainable use and should therefore be encouraged, but they accept high scientific and implementation uncertainties as unavoidable because of limited management and enforcement resources and capacity. It is important to recognize that this limitation will result in social costs, because application of a precautionary approach in the face of high uncertainties will require forgoing potential sustainable benefits. Acceptance of primary fisheries management as a final and sufficient goal could therefore add a further constraint on the possibility of fishing communities escaping the poverty trap. Primary fisheries management should be seen as a first and minimum target for fisheries where there is currently no or inadequate management, but the longer‐term goal should still be well informed and adaptive management that strives for optimal benefits, referred to here as tertiary management.     

The epidemiology of Argulus spp. (Crustacea: Branchiura) infections in stillwater trout fisheries

Problem infections caused by species of the crustacean ectoparasite, Argulus, in UK stillwater trout fisheries appear to have increased in recent years. A cross-sectional study of 77 such fisheries was conducted to establish the perceived problem and the extent and severity of this problem, and to identify associated risk factors. An interview-based study was conducted in 2001 using a standardized questionnaire based on the management and infection status of each fishery in the previous year. Logistic regression was used to identify potential risk factors. Argulus spp. were perceived to cause economic losses in infected fisheries through a reduction in the number of anglers due to reduced aesthetic appeal and catchability of fish. Of the sites studied, 29% experienced such a problem infection in 2000. Argulus foliaceus was identified in all but one case and was found to be widely distributed throughout the UK. The remaining case was identified as Argulus coregoni. Three risk factors were associated with problem infections: the presence of an algal bloom, slow rates of stock turnover and whether water level dropped by <1 m during the summer months.     

Priority knowledge needs for management of migratory fish species in Cambodia

Despite their economic and ecological importance, migratory fishes of the Lower Mekong Basin (LMB) remain understudied, which hampers effective management to sustain valuable fisheries and address serious threats such as habitat degradation, development and overharvest. From a list of potential knowledge needs, a group of fisheries professionals most frequently identified six top priorities for managing migratory fishes in Cambodia: (1) population abundances and trends, (2) life cycles and life history, (3) migration timing and triggers, (4) migration routes and distances, (5) locations of key habitats and spawning areas, and (6) environmental and habitat requirements. These needs are discussed along with nine relevant methodologies for addressing them, including fisheries-dependent and fisheries-independent sampling, reproductive techniques and captive studies, otolith and genetic analysis tools, and tagging and imaging techniques. A suggested research framework is also presented to inform adaptive management of migratory fishes. While emphasis is given to Cambodia, the analysis is also applicable to other LMB countries, given that migratory fishes occur throughout the basin and migrate across borders. It is suggested that a robust research and monitoring agenda is required to prioritise knowledge needs and select appropriate methodologies to answer questions vital to inform sustainable migratory fish management in Cambodia.     

Catching the future: Applying Bayesian belief networks to exploratory scenario storylines to assess long‐term changes in Baltic herring (Clupea harengus membras,Clupeidae) and salmon (Salmo salar,Salmonidae) fisheries

Fisheries management aims to ensure that the fishing activities are environmentally sustainable in the long term, while also achieving the economic, social and food security related management objectives. To facilitate this, both the ecological and human dimensions of sustainability need to be included in fisheries assessment. In addition, assessing long‐term sustainability calls for taking into account plausible changes in the surrounding societal conditions that shape the characteristics of the fisheries governance system, as well as the ecological conditions. The paper uses a combination of qualitative exploratory scenario storylines (ESS) and Bayesian belief networks (BBN) to integrate the environmental, economic, social and food security dimensions in an interdisciplinary assessment of the future sustainability of Baltic herring (Clupea harengus membras, Clupeidae) and salmon (Salmo salar, Salmonidae) fisheries. First, four alternative ESS were created based on plausible changes in societal drivers. The ESS were then formulated into a BBN to (a) visualize the assumed causalities, and (b) examine quantitatively how changes in the societal drivers affect the social‐ecological fisheries system and ultimately the fisheries management objectives. This type of probabilistic scenario synthesis can help in thinking qualitative scenarios in a quantitative way. Moreover, it can increase understanding on the causal links between societal driving forces and the complex fisheries system and on how the management objectives can be achieved, thereby providing valuable information for strategic decision‐making under uncertainty.     

Assessing opportunity and relocation costs of marine protected areas using a behavioural model of longline fleet dynamics

Increasing use of spatial management tools in fisheries requires an understanding of fleet response, and in particular to where displaced fishing effort is likely to move. We develop a state‐dependent decision‐making model to address the spatial allocation of effort in an Australian tuna longline fishery. We assume that fishers have an economic objective in deciding where to fish, but that decisions in any period are also influenced by the remaining quota held at the time of the decision. Key features of the model include endogenous price dynamics, a moving stock and a competitive pool of different vessel types operating from different port locations. We utilize this model to illustrate fleet responses to marine reserves and limits on fishing effort. The results illustrate that the model framework provides advantages over statistically based models in that decisions made in response to the imposition of a reserve are not consistent with a proportional reallocation of effort. Rather, the stochastic dynamic model yielded an overall profit level of ～4% higher relative to scenarios with no reserve. Incorporating the opportunity cost of a quota into the model resulted in an optimal utilization of effort, in which effort was concentrated in time periods and locations yielding maximized profit. Under a low level of effort relative to the season length, the model indicated an overall profit level 43% greater than the highest obtained when the same level of effort was applied solely within any given quarter of the season.     

The use of spatial management tools in rights‐based groundfish fisheries

The role of spatial management, including marine protected areas, in achieving fisheries outcomes alongside conservation goals is debated. In fisheries that fail to meet fishing mortality targets, closed areas are sometimes implemented to reduce fishing mortality. However, fisheries with stronger management, including rights‐based approaches that can address overcapacity and overfishing problems, often employ spatial management as well. Here, we compare the objectives, design, and performance of spatial management in nine temperate demersal fisheries in North America, Oceania, Europe, and Africa that employ rights‐based systems. Common objectives of spatial management included protecting habitat, juveniles, and spawners and reducing discards. Recovering age structure and creating scientific reference sites were less common objectives, despite being widely cited benefits of spatial management. Some fisheries adopted single closures to achieve single objectives, whereas others adopted diverse networks to achieve multiple objectives. Importantly, many spatial protections are implemented primarily through industry initiatives. Environmental change compromised the efficacy of spatial management in some cases, suggesting the need to design spatial management systems that are robust to changing ocean conditions. Fisheries with diverse and extensive spatial management systems have generally healthier fish stocks. Whether this implies that spatial management contributed substantially to fishery performance is unclear due to an absence of large‐scale, long‐term studies aimed at discerning different drivers of success. Although these targeted monitoring studies of closed areas are limited, such studies are necessary to help resolve the ongoing debate and to enable more purposeful design of spatial management for fisheries and conservation.     

Strong fisheries management and governance positively impact ecosystem status

Fisheries have had major negative impacts on marine ecosystems, and effective fisheries management and governance are needed to achieve sustainable fisheries, biodiversity conservation goals and thus good ecosystem status. To date, the IndiSeas programme (Indicators for the Seas) has focussed on assessing the ecological impacts of fishing at the ecosystem scale using ecological indicators. Here, we explore fisheries ‘Management Effectiveness’ and ‘Governance Quality’ and relate this to ecosystem health and status. We developed a dedicated expert survey, focused at the ecosystem level, with a series of questions addressing aspects of management and governance, from an ecosystem‐based perspective, using objective and evidence‐based criteria. The survey was completed by ecosystem experts (managers and scientists) and results analysed using ranking and multivariate methods. Results were further examined for selected ecosystems, using expert knowledge, to explore the overall findings in greater depth. Higher scores for ‘Management Effectiveness’ and ‘Governance Quality’ were significantly and positively related to ecosystems with better ecological status. Key factors that point to success in delivering fisheries and conservation objectives were as follows: the use of reference points for management, frequent review of stock assessments, whether Illegal, Unreported and Unregulated (IUU) catches were being accounted for and addressed, and the inclusion of stakeholders. Additionally, we found that the implementation of a long‐term management plan, including economic and social dimensions of fisheries in exploited ecosystems, was a key factor in successful, sustainable fisheries management. Our results support the thesis that good ecosystem‐based management and governance, sustainable fisheries and healthy ecosystems go together.     

Spatially explicit fisheries simulation models for policy evaluation

This paper deals with the design of modelling tools suitable for investigating the consequences of alternative policies on the dynamics of resources and fisheries, such as the evaluation of marine protected areas (MPA). We first review the numerous models that have been developed for this purpose, and compare them from several standpoints: population modelling, exploitation modelling and management measure modelling. We then present a generic fisheries simulation model, Integration of Spatial Information for FISHeries simulation (ISIS‐Fish). This spatially explicit model allows quantitative policy screening for fisheries with mixed‐species harvests. It may be used to investigate the effects of combined management scenarios including a variety of policies: total allowable catch (TAC), licenses, gear restrictions, MPA, etc. Fisher's response to management may be accounted for by means of decision rules conditioned on population and exploitation parameters. An application to a simple example illustrates the relevance of this kind of tool for policy screening, particularly in the case of mixed fisheries. Finally, the reviewed models and ISIS‐Fish are discussed and confronted in the light of the underlying assumptions and model objectives. In the light of this discussion, we identify desirable features for fisheries simulation models aimed at policy evaluation, and particularly MPA evaluation.