塔里木河下游胡杨对水分条件变化的响应

通过对塔里木河下游应急输水河畔胡杨样枝的年轮分析,结果表明:第3次应急输水后,喀尔达依断面胡杨的横向响应范围达到离河1 000 m;应急输水后不同断面、不同离河距离,地下水埋深梯度、过水时间梯度随着离河道和大西海子水库距离增加,胡杨生长量减少;输水量大的年份胡杨生长量明显大于输水量少的年份,在相同输水量和输水时间前提下,春秋季持续输水对胡杨生长恢复效果要优于夏秋季输水;在持续输水后,胡杨生长量增长幅度减小,其大小逐步趋于近似.     

土地利用变化对塔里木河中游胡杨林的影响研究

本研究区位于塔里木河中游地区,本研究选取耕地变化、输水堤防的建设以及油气田开发三种土地利用方式,在大量野外调查的基础上,在3S技术和历史数据的支持下,分析了这些土地利用方式变化对胡杨林生态系统的影响。研究结果表明:研究区1992年之后内耕地大量增加,输水堤防对堤防内外侧胡杨生态系统具有不同影响,油气田开发会造成生态破坏和环境污染等问题。     

塔里木河下游生态输水后胡杨林恢复效应与预测研究

塔里木河下游大西海子水库以下河道,自2000年5月至2004年10月,共进行了六次间歇性的生态输水。本文通过对胡杨样枝生长量的分析,表明输水对胡杨林的恢复具有显著的作用;同时依据历史期间的生态水量与胡杨林的对应关系,预测了在现状输水条件下大西海子水库以下可以恢复的胡杨林面积。     

近60 a石羊河流域蒸发量变化及其原因分析

蒸发是水循环的关键环节,理解蒸发变化及其原因对于水资源可持续利用具有重要意义。以石羊河流域为例,选取自南向北沿海拔梯度递减的乌鞘岭、永昌、武威和民勤4个气象站近60 a(1958—2017年)数据资料,基于改进的PenPan模型分析了石羊河流域蒸发量时空变化特征及其原因。结果表明：（1）空间上,石羊河流域蒸发量变化存在海拔效应,随着海拔的增加蒸发量显著减少,递减率约为38 mm·(100m)-1;时间上,蒸发量变化存在明显的分段特征,1958—1970年蒸发量减少,20世纪70年代以来蒸发量增加,尤其是平原区最为明显。（2）改进的PenPan模型能较好地模拟各站点日尺度和月尺度蒸发量的变化（R2>0.85）,为进一步提高模拟精度,模型中的风速函数有待修正。（3）改进的PenPan模型计算的辐射组分年际变化不大,但空气动力学组分波动上升,这与温度和饱和水气压差变化趋势一致,说明温度升高是引起石羊河流域70年代以来蒸发量增加的主要原因。说明在气候变暖背景下石羊河流域蒸发量将持续增加,也给未来强化水资源管理,保障可持续发展施加更大的压力。     

近60a黄河流域地表径流变化特征及其与气候变化的关系

利用气温、降水量和NCEP/NCAR地表径流资料,运用线性趋势系数、相关系数和不规则区域网格化方法,研究了近60a来黄河流域地表径流的变化及其与气候因素的相关关系。结果表明:1951-2010年整个黄河流域均为升温趋势,北部升温幅度高于南部;降水量正趋势主要位于黄河源区,中、下游地区为负趋势;地表径流变化在黄河源区(处于青藏高原)和河套北部(阴山南麓)呈现为增加趋势,其余广大的地区呈现为减少趋势;从不同年代的地表径流来看,不论是黄河源区还是广大的中、下游地区,上世纪60年代的径流量均是最高的,而二十一世纪10年代径流量是最低的;从整个流域来看,径流量与气温和降水均有较好的相关性。在黄河源区以外的流域内,降水与径流的关系好于气温,而在黄河源区则相反,不同区域差异的原因有待进一步研究。     

Impacts of temperature and precipitation on runoff in the Tarim River during the past 50 years

The relationship between climate change and water resources in the Tarim River was analyzed by combining the temperature,precipitation and streamflow data from 1957 to 2007 from the four headstreams of the Tarim River (Aksu,Hotan,Yarkant and Kaidu rivers) in the study area.The long-term trend of the hydrological time series including temperature,precipitation and streamflow were studied using correlation analysis and partial correlations analysis.Holt double exponential smoothing was used to fit the trends between streamflow and the two climatic factors of Aksu River,Hotan River and Yarkant River.The streamflow of the main stream was forecasted by Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model (ARIMA) modeling by the method of time series analysis.The results show that the temperature experienced a trend of monotonic rising.The precipitation and runoff of the four headstreams of the Tarim River increased,while the inflow to the headstreams increased and the inflow into the Tarim River decreased.Changes of temperature and precipitation had a significant impact on runoff into the four headstreams of the Tarim River: the precipitation had a positive impact on water flow in the Aksu River,Hotan River and Kaidu River,while the temperature had a positive impact on water flow in the Yarkant River.The results of Holt double exponential smoothing showed that the correlation between the independent variable and dependent variable was relatively close after the model was fitted to the headstreams,of which only the runoff and temperature values of Hotan River showed a significant negative correlation.The forecasts by the ARIMA model for 50 years of annual runoff at the Allar station followed the pattern of the measured data for the same years.The short-term forecasts beyond the observed series adequately captured the pattern in the data and showed a decreasing tendency in the Tarim River flow of 3.07% every ten years.The results showed that global warming accelerated the water recharge process of the headstreams.The special hydrological characteristics of the arid area determined the significant association between streamflow and the two climatic factors studied.Strong glacier retreat is likely to bring a series of flood disasters within the study area.     

新疆塔里木河下游胡杨树高生长量及其空间分布研究

以塔里木河下游4个典型断面作为野外调查靶区,根据3a来对塔里木河下游胡杨恢复状况的实地监测数据,分析了影响胡杨树高生长量的因素,并得出中龄段胡杨树高生长量和地下水埋深的回归模型:y=-0.1286x+1.0097。结果显示:在塔里木河下游影响胡杨生长的主要因子是地下水,由回归模型可以得出:当地下水埋深<4.5m时,中龄胡杨树高生长是显著的;地下水埋深在4.5~6.5 m时,胡杨树高生长受到抑制;而当地下水埋深>6.5 m时,胡杨树高生长非常缓慢;地下水埋深>8m时,胡杨树高生长基本停止。此外,聚丛的群生株无论在树高还是在高生长量上都比散生的单生株显现优势。     

近51年松花江流域温度变化趋势分析

利用1958～ 2008年松花江流域34个气象站的日温度数据,采用滑动平均法、Mann- Kendall非参数检验、突变法和森斜率估计法,定量地分析了松花江流域年平均温度和季节温度的年际变化、变化趋势及变化幅度.研究结果表明,1958～2008年间松花江流域年平均温度表现为显著的上升趋势,51年来共上升了2℃,上升趋势...     

近60年来玛纳斯河流域气候时空变化趋势分析

本研究以中亚典型冰川融化区玛纳斯河流域为例,研究玛纳斯河流域近60 a气候变化趋势,分析玛纳斯河流域上中下游气温及降水空间变化格局,运用墨西哥帽小波函数法对玛纳斯河流域气温及降水的周期规律进行分析。结果表明,近60 a来,玛纳斯河流域经历了一个增温趋湿的过程,气温、降水量的增加幅度分别为0.44℃/10a、11.6 mm/10a;在空间分布上,玛纳斯河流域气温增温幅度由上游到下游逐渐升高。年降水则呈现由上游到下游逐渐降低的相反趋势;玛纳斯河流域年平均气温有着明显的9 a周期震荡,并且年平均气温在未来一段时间将表现为增加趋势;全年降水存在明显的6 a周期震荡,同时年降水在未来的一段时间表现为丰水期。研究结果对研究干旱区区域尺度气候变化规律有一定借鉴意义。     

额济纳绿洲胡杨种群结构与分布格局研究

在内蒙古阿拉善盟额济纳旗一道桥、二道桥、三道桥、和四道桥的胡杨自然保护区内设置9个10m×10m样地,应用相邻格子法进行每木调查,并对胡杨(Populus euphratica)种群结构和分布格局进行了分析。结果表明:胡杨的种群结构为衰退型,幼苗、幼树和中龄树数量较小。额济纳胡杨种群整体分布格局为聚集分布,随着径级的增大其分布格局呈现规律性变化,幼小植群呈强聚集分布,大树倾向于随机分布,中龄树和成年树由聚集分布向随机分布过度。     

塔里木河下游胡杨物候特征观测

以塔里木河下游胡杨(Populus euphratica)为对象,对胡杨的开花期、展叶期、第一次展叶期、第二次展叶期、果熟期、叶黄期及落叶期等主要物候期进行观测。结果表明:胡杨各物候期中,开花期持续时间最短,3月29日至4月19日,果熟期持续时间最长,5月25日开始,10月13日结束。由于春尺蠖(Apocheima cinerarius)的危害,胡杨有"二次展叶"现象,第一次展叶期为4月4日至5月1日,第二次展叶期为5月13日至6月4日。胡杨叶黄期和落叶期相重叠,叶黄期从9月26日开始,10月28日结束,落叶期从10月11日开始,11月12日结束。胡杨长达4个多月的果熟期与河道洪水期吻合,这有利于种子的传播、萌发及幼苗扎根,促进天然胡杨林种群的更新及演替。     

塔里木河干流绿洲250年人类活动、环境变化及可持续发展模式研究

塔里木河是中国最大的内陆河流,其绿洲可持续发展决定着新疆南疆地区的经济发展与环境稳定。文中根据历史文献和野外考察,分析18世纪中期-20世纪50年代的塔河人类活动与环境变化;利用遥感和GIS技术,获取塔里木河干流上、中、下游1973年、1990年、2000年和2008年土地利用/覆被数据;利用生态系统服务价值理论,分析1973-2008年土地利用/覆被变化的生态环境变化,并利用相关分析方法判断这种变化的驱动因子。结果显示:20世纪50年代以前,人工绿洲主要在源流进行,干流是天然绿洲环境,受制于河流特性的影响;以后人工绿洲开发主要在干流进行,以干流生态环境退化为代价,驱动其变化的是人口、经济利益、政策和资本等人文因素。在此基础上,利用自组织理论和利益相关者理论,建立了塔河干流绿洲可持续发展模式。     

生态输水对塔里木河下游胡杨主干径向生长量影响研究——以依干不及麻断面为例

借鉴树木年轮学的方法,运用LINTABTM6型树木年轮测定仪读取钻芯的年轮宽度,研究塔里木河下游的胡杨在生态输水前后主干径向生长量变化规律.结果表明:(1)输水前后胡杨主干径向生长量变化较明显.输水前(1990-1999年)径向生长量为1.078mm,而输水后(2000-2008年)是1.764mm,比输水前增加了0....     

黄土高原气候与气候生产力对全球气候变化的响应

应用黄土高原7省51个代表性气象站1961～2000年主要气象要素观测资料,采用EOF和其他数理统计方法研究了黄土高原气候与气候生产力对全球气候变化的响应,结果表明：中国黄土高原年和各季节的平均气温均呈明显的上升趋势,增温速度大于全国同期增温速度;年降水量和作物生长季节降水量均呈下降的趋势;气候生产力呈递减趋势;未来“暖湿型”气候对作物生产最有利,平均增产幅度为5．9％,而“冷湿型”气候对作物生产最不利,平均减产幅度为6．3％。     

Quantitative distinction of the relative actions of climate change and human activities on vegetation evolution in the Yellow River Basin of China during 1981-2019

Under the combined influence of climate change and human activities, vegetation ecosystem has undergone profound changes. It can be seen that there are obvious differences in the evolution patterns and driving mechanisms of vegetation ecosystem in different historical periods. Therefore, it is urgent to identify and reveal the dominant factors and their contribution rates in the vegetation change cycle. Based on the data of climate elements (sunshine hours, precipitation and temperature), human activities (population intensity and GDP intensity) and other natural factors (altitude, slope and aspect), this study explored the spatial and temporal evolution patterns of vegetation NDVI in the Yellow River Basin of China from 1989 to 2019 through a residual method, a trend analysis, and a gravity center model, and quantitatively distinguished the relative actions of climate change and human activities on vegetation evolution based on Geodetector model. The results showed that the spatial distribution of vegetation NDVI in the Yellow River Basin showed a decreasing trend from southeast to northwest. During 1981-2019, the temporal variation of vegetation NDVI showed an overall increasing trend. The gravity centers of average vegetation NDVI during the study period was distributed in Zhenyuan County, Gansu Province, and the center moved northeastwards from 1981 to 2019. During 1981-2000 and 2001-2019, the proportion of vegetation restoration areas promoted by the combined action of climate change and human activities was the largest. During the study period (1981-2019), the dominant factors influencing vegetation NDVI shifted from natural factors to human activities. These results could provide decision support for the protection and restoration of vegetation ecosystem in the Yellow River Basin.     

Desertification dynamic and the relative roles of climate change and human activities in desertification in the Heihe River Basin based on NPP

Relative roles of climate change and human activities in desertification are the hotspot of research on desertification dynamic and its driving mechanism.To overcome the shortcomings of existing studies,this paper selected net primary productivity(NPP) as an indicator to analyze desertification dynamic and its impact factors.In addition,the change trends of actual NPP,potential NPP and HNPP(human appropriation of NPP,the difference between potential NPP and actual NPP) were used to analyze the desertification dynamic and calculate the relative roles of climate change,human activities and a combination of the two factors in desertification.In this study,the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer(MODIS)-Normalised Difference Vegetation Index(NDVI) and meteorological data were utilized to drive the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach(CASA) model to calculate the actual NPP from 2001 to 2010 in the Heihe River Basin.Potential NPP was estimated using the Thornthwaite Memorial model.Results showed that 61% of the whole basin area underwent land degradation,of which 90.5% was caused by human activities,8.6% by climate change,and 0.9% by a combination of the two factors.On the contrary,1.5% of desertification reversion area was caused by human activities and 90.7% by climate change,the rest 7.8% by a combination of the two factors.Moreover,it was demonstrated that 95.9% of the total actual NPP decrease was induced by human activities,while 69.3% of the total actual NPP increase was caused by climate change.The results revealed that climate change dominated desertification reversion,while human activities dominated desertification expansion.Moreover,the relative roles of both climate change and human activities in desertification possessed great spatial heterogeneity.Additionally,ecological protection policies should be enhanced in the Heihe River Basin to prevent desertification expansion under the condition of climate change.     

近48年大同市旱涝灾害对气候变化的响应

根据1960~2007年大同逐月平均气温和逐月降水资料,分析了近48 a大同市在全球增暖影响下气温和降水的变化;采用滑动t检验法和信噪比法分析了气温突变的时间点;在此基础上研究了大同市气温突变前后旱涝灾害的变化,并运用马尔可夫模型对未来5 a旱涝状况进行了预测。结果表明:近48 a来大同市气温呈明显的上升趋势;随着气温的升高,该市干旱灾害的比例增幅比较明显,特别是在气温突变后,干旱(4级和5级)的概率达到63.64%,2009~2012年处于"偏旱"的概率较大。     

塔里木河下游阿拉干断面胡杨林空间分布特征及其影响因素

通过小尺度生态监测与遥感数据分析获取塔里木河下游荒漠河岸林现状信息,集中对阿拉干断面设立的100hm2长期监测样方内的胡杨树进行了详细的调查,对该断面胡杨林空间分布特征及其影响因素进行了分析。研究结果表明：塔里木河下游的胡杨具有伴河生长的特性;随着离河距离的增加,胡杨株数呈递减趋势;大部分胡杨主要分布在离河道200m范...     

黑河流域近46年日照时数的气候变化特征及其影响因素

采用气候倾向率法,对黑河流域10个气象站1960-2005年逐月日照时数以及对日照有影响的总云量、低云量、水气压、降水量等资料进行了统计分析。结果表明:近46年黑河流域年日照时数平均每10年减少1.77 h,近26年来减少趋势更加明显。秋、冬季日照时数显著减少,但夏季呈明显上升趋势。20世纪60年代四季日照时数均为正距平;70年代除冬季外,春、夏、秋季日照均偏少;80年代夏、冬季为负距平,春、秋季日照充足;90年代春季为负距平,其他季节均日照充足。黑河流域年、秋季日照时数的减少与降水量和大气中水气压的增加呈负相关,夏季日照时数的增加主要是由于云量的减少引起。