近50a西北干旱区气候变化趋势及对荒漠化的影响

西北干旱区干旱少雨,生态环境脆弱,土地荒漠化严重。本文根据近1951-2000年的逐月平均气温和月降水量资料研究了我国西北干旱区气候变化趋势,并结合近年来西北干旱区地表径流量变化,分析其对准噶尔盆地、塔里木盆地、河西走廊和柴达木盆地土地荒漠化影响。研究结果表明:(1)近50a西北干旱区气温都升高,变暖最显著的是北疆和柴达木盆地。降水量有增加趋势,其中南疆降水量增加趋势最大。北疆蒸发量有减少趋势外,其他区蒸发量都在增加,尤其南疆蒸发量增加趋势最大。(2)近50a来由于气候变暖,使蒸发量增大,塔克拉马干沙漠、河西走廊沙漠区和柴达木沙漠区的干旱危害加剧,这必然导致沙漠化的易发和其进程的加速。北疆气温升高,降水量增加,而蒸发量减少,有利于古尔班通古特沙漠区沙漠化进程的减缓。(3)气候变化和地表径流量变化有利于准噶尔盆地和塔里木盆地的土地荒漠化逆转,而使河西走廊和柴达木盆地的土地荒漠化发展迅速。     

Sensitivity of runoff to climatic variability in the northern and southern slopes of the Middle Tianshan Mountains,China

Temperature and precipitation play an important role in the distribution of intra-annual runoff by influencing the timing and contribution of different water sources.In the northern and southern slopes of the Middle Tianshan Mountains in China,the water sources of rivers are similar;however,the proportion and dominance of water sources contributing to runoff are different.Using the Manas River watershed in the northern slope and the Kaidu River watershed in the southern slope of the Middle Tianshan Mountains as case studies,we investigated the changes in annual runoff under climate change.A modified hydrological model was used to simulate runoff in the Kaidu River and Manas River watersheds.The results indicated that runoff was sensitive to precipitation variation in the southern slope and to temperature variation in the northern slope of the Middle Tianshan Mountains.Variations in temperature and precipitation substantially influence annual and seasonal runoff.An increase in temperature did not influence the volume of spring runoff;but it resulted in earlier spring peaks with higher levels of peak flow.Damages caused by spring peak flow from both slopes of the Middle Tianshan Mountains should be given more attention in future studies.     

Spatio-temporal pattern and changes of evapotranspiration in arid Central Asia and Xinjiang of China

Accurate inversion of land surface evapotranspiration (ET) in arid areas is of great significance for understanding global eco-hydrological process and exploring the spatio-temporal variation and ecological response of water resources.It is also important in the functional evaluation of regional water cycle and water balance,as well as the rational allocation and management of water resources.This study,based on model validation analysis at varied scales in five Central Asian countries and China's Xinjiang,developed an appropriate approach for ET inversion in arid lands.The actual ET during growing seasons of the study area was defined,and the changes in water participating in evaporation in regional water cycle were then educed.The results show the simulation error of SEBS (Surface Energy Balance System) model under cloud amount consideration was 1.34% at 30-m spatial scale,2.75% at 1-km spatial scale and 6.37% at 4-km spatial scale.ET inversion for 1980-2007 applying SEBS model in the study area indicates:(1) the evaporation depth (May-September) by land types descends in the order of waters (660.24 mm) > cultivated land (464.66 mm) > woodland (388.44 mm) > urbanized land (168.16 mm) > grassland (160.48 mm) > unused land (83.08 mm);and (2) ET during the 2005 growing season in Xinjiang and Central Asia was 2,168.68×10 8 m 3 (with an evaporation/precipitation ratio of 1.05) and 9,741.03×10 8 m 3 (with an evaporation/precipitation ratio of 1.4),respectively.The results unveiled the spatio-temporal variation rules of ET process in arid areas,providing a reference for further research on the water cycle and water balance in similar arid regions.     

巴仑台地区两个树轮宽度年表的建立

通过对比巴仑台地区的2个标准化树轮宽度年表和乌鲁木齐河山区的9个标准化树轮宽度年表的多项主要特征参数.结果表明:巴仑台地区年表所含的气候信息有可能多于乌鲁木齐河山区年表.通过年表间相关分析发现,巴仑台地区年表与乌鲁木齐河山区年表都在0.01水平上两两相关,表明可能存在更大范围的气候信息.因为夫斯坦沟年表与乌鲁木齐河山区年表的相关系数较高,所以其可能比萨色克沟年表包含有更多的天山山区的气候信息.通过对比年表间高低频信息含量,可知巴仑台地区树轮年表所含高低频信息总量的平均值高于乌鲁木齐河山区树轮年表,且夫斯坦沟年表与乌鲁木齐河山区树轮年表都是高频信息含量高于低频信息含量.     

干旱区农田蒸散量的日间变化分析

塔里木灌区位于中国新疆的塔克拉玛干沙漠北缘 ,本区开垦前是沙漠起伏、灌木丛生的原始荒漠 ,原始胡杨林点片连绵生长于荒漠之中。 1 95 2年 3月开垦至 1 996年 ,全灌区总灌溉面积已达到 660 0 0 ha。形成了稳定的农业生态环境 ,成为塔里木盆地最大的新绿洲。绿洲内部农田蒸散的日变化规律 ,极具干旱区特点。本文通过中国科学院阿克苏水平衡试验站的观测试验和一些干旱、半干旱及湿润地区的蒸发日变化过程进行了对比分析 ,论述了干旱区蒸发日变化的某些特征。     

Evapotranspiration of an oasis-desert transition zone in the middle stream of Heihe River,Northwest China

As a main component in water balance, evapotranspiration is of great importance for water saving and irrigation-measure making, especially in arid or semiarid regions. Although studies of evapotranspiration have been conducted for a long time, studies concentrated on oasis-desert transition zone are very limited. On the basis of the meteorological data and other parameters(e.g. leaf area index(LAI)) of an oasis-desert transition zone in the middle stream of Heihe River from 2005 to 2011, this paper calculated both reference(ET0) and actual evapotranspiration(ETc) using FAO56 Penman-Monteith and Penman-Monteith models, respectively. In combination with pan evaporation(Ep) measured by E601 pan evaporator, four aspects were analyzed:(1) ET0 was firstly verified by Ep;(2) Characteristics of ET0 and ETc were compared, while the influencing factors were also analyzed;(3) Since meteorological data are often unavailable for estimating ET0 through FAO56 Penman-Monteith model in this region, pan evaporation coefficient(Kp) is very important when using observed Ep to predict ET0. Under this circumstance, an empirical formula of Kp was put forward for this region;(4) Crop coefficient(Kc), an important index to reflect evapotranspiration, was also analyzed. Results show that mean annual values of ET0 and ETc were 840 and 221 mm, respectively. On the daily bases, ET0 and ETc were 2.3 and 0.6 mm/d, respectively. The annual tendency of ET0 and ETc was very similar, but their amplitude was obviously different. The differences among ET0 and ETc were mainly attributed to the different meteorological variables and leaf area index. The calculated Kc was about 0.25 and showed little variation during the growing season, indicating that available water(e.g. precipitation and irrigation) of about 221 mm/a was required to keep the water balance in this region. The results provide an comprehensive analysis of evapotranspiration for an oasis-desert transition zone in the middle stream of Heihe River, which was seldom reported before.     

Monitoring and analysis of snow cover change in an alpine mountainous area in the Tianshan Mountains,China

Estimating the snow cover change in alpine mountainous areas(in which meteorological stations are typically lacking) is crucial for managing local water resources and constitutes the first step in evaluating the contribution of snowmelt to runoff and the water cycle. In this paper, taking the Jingou River Basin on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains, China as an example, we combined a new moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer(MODIS) snow cover extent product over China spanning ...     

干旱区山地生态格局与可持续发展

我国干旱区以山地-绿洲-荒漠组成的独立的内陆自然体系为重要特征。在这个体系中,山地为绿洲区提供了几乎所有的水资源;山地是干旱区最主要的林业及牧业基地;山地是干旱区绝大部分矿产、旅游资源所在地;山地是干旱区生物多样性、文化多样性集中地。没有山区的生态稳定,就没有干旱区的可持续发展。但是,多年来干旱区山地遭受森林破坏、草地退化、污染等影响,正侵蚀着干旱区可持续发展的根基。特别是干旱区在研究和政策上,重绿洲轻山地,使山区没有受到应有的重视。本文概括出干旱区山地的四种生态格局：基本格局、草原-草甸优势格局、草原-荒漠优势格局及内部湿地中心格局。简要论述了干旱区山地森林稀有资源管理的“奥依塔克模式”、山地保护与发展相协调的“巴音布鲁克模式”、中国西部山地发展的一般模式,并首次提出了中山带发展战略,使干旱区形成绿洲-中山立体双带发展模式。     

亚洲中部干旱区的湖泊

采用系统论的观点,对亚洲中部的干旱区湖泊（包括咸海、巴尔喀什湖、博斯腾湖、艾比湖、玛纳斯湖、艾丁湖与罗布泊等）的水分循环与其他物质循环进行综合研究,其结果不仅丰富了生态循环的理论,而且深刻地揭示了干旱区湖泊与湿润区湖泊截然不同的特征;表现出水分循环的独特性、形态测量学的复杂性、风生湖流的奇特性与泥沙运行的规律性以及内陆湖水化学特征和别具一格的水生态循环系统等。干旱区湖泊作为陆地水圈的组成部分,他是一个完整的生态系统。他由湖泊中的生物和水两大亚系统组成,相互作用而又相互联系。尽管大陆性气候严酷和强烈,风生湖流强劲（有时还多亏他的作用）,蒸发量大,但内陆湖能生存数千年,即在现代时间尺度上是无IL尽的。     

Runoff of arid and semi-arid regions simulated and projected by CLM-DTVGM and its multi-scale fluctuations as revealed by EEMD analysis

Runoff is a major component of the water cycle,and its multi-scale fluctuations are important to water resources management across arid and semi-arid regions.This paper coupled the Distributed Time Variant Gain Model(DTVGM)into the Community Land Model(CLM 3.5),replacing the TOPMODEL-based method to simulate runoff in the arid and semi-arid regions of China.The coupled model was calibrated at five gauging stations for the period 1980–2005 and validated for the period 2006–2010.Then,future runoff(2010–2100)was simulated for different Representative Concentration Pathways(RCP)emission scenarios.After that,the spatial distributions of the future runoff for these scenarios were discussed,and the multi-scale fluctuation characteristics of the future annual runoff for the RCP scenarios were explored using the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition(EEMD)analysis method.Finally,the decadal variabilities of the future annual runoff for the entire study area and the five catchments in it were investigated.The results showed that the future annual runoff had slowly decreasing trends for scenarios RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 during the period 2010–2100,whereas it had a non-monotonic trend for the RCP 4.5 scenario,with a slow increase after the 2050 s.Additionally,the future annual runoff clearly varied over a decadal time scale,indicating that it had clear divisions between dry and wet periods.The longest dry period was approximately 15 years(2040–2055)for the RCP 2.6 scenario and 25 years(2045–2070)for the RCP 4.5 scenario.However,the RCP 8.5 scenario was predicted to have a long dry period starting from 2045.Under these scenarios,the water resources situation of the study area will be extremely severe.Therefore,adaptive water management measures addressing climate change should be adopted to proactively confront the risks of water resources.     

近40年来内蒙古岱海水位下降的主要原因

内蒙古岱海为地处东南季风区边缘的内陆封闭湖泊，近40多年来湖泊水位持续下降，湖泊面积持续萎缩。结合历史文献，本文回顾近代岱海湖面涨、水位波动的历史，进而对近40年的岱海水量平衡要素，以及气候资料进行了定量分析。结果显示岱海湖面波动气候变化的反应敏感，气候变化仍是近40年来岱海湖泊水面萎缩、水位波动的根本原因；现代人类活动的强烈干预是岱海萎缩的强化因素。     

利用SEBAL模型对沙拉沐沦河流域蒸散发的分析

以2001年7月10日的MODIS数据为数据源,采用基于地表热量平衡的SEBAL模型估算位于半干旱地区的沙拉沐沦河流域的实际蒸散发量,综合分析蒸散发量与土地利用/覆被、地表温度、植被指数、高程、坡度和坡向的关系。结果表明:该流域的夏季日实际蒸散发量空间差异比较大,从0mm到6.57mm,平均蒸散发约2.90mm;蒸散发的空间分布不均匀,流域边缘林地覆盖区的蒸散发最高,中部和流域出口所在的草地、耕地分布区相对较低。实际蒸散发量与地表温度和归一化植被指数高度线性相关;不同的土地利用类型具有不同的日平均蒸散发量,林地的日平均蒸散发量最高,其次为耕地,建设用地最低。     

Climate effects on an inland alpine lake in Xinjiang,China over the past 40 years

Inland lakes are important water resources in arid and semiarid regions. Understanding climate effects on these lakes is critical to accurately evaluate the dynamic changes of water resources. This study focused on the changes in Sayram Lake of Xinjiang, China, and addressed the effects of climate fluctuations on the inland lake based on long-term sequenced remote sensing images and meteorological data from the past 40 years. A geographic information system (GIS) method was used to obtain the hypsometry of the basin area of Sayram Lake, and estimation methods for evaporation from rising temperature and water levels from increasing precipitation were proposed. Results showed that: (1) Areal values of Sayram Lake have increased over the past 40 years. (2) Both temperature and precipitation have increased with average increases of more than 1.8℃ and 82 mm, respectively. Variation of the water levels in the lake was consistent with local climate changes, and the areal values show linear relationships with local temperature and precipitation data. (3) According to the hypsometry data of the basin area, the estimated lake water levels increased by 2.8 m, and the water volume increased by 12.9×10 8 m3 over the past 40 years. The increasing area of Sayram Lake correlated with local and regional climatic changes because it is hardly affected by human activities.     

1960-2009年巴丹吉林沙漠南北缘气候变化分析

利用巴丹吉林沙漠北缘的额济纳旗、拐子湖和南缘的阿拉善右旗、雅布赖4个气象站,1960-2009年逐月平均气温、降水量和相对湿度资料,运用一元线性回归、趋势系数分析和5年滑动平均方法,分析近50年来沙漠南北缘气候变化趋势.结果发现:近50年来,巴丹吉林沙漠南北缘年平均气温显著升高,升温速率为0.27～0.48℃/10 a...     

干旱区土壤蒸发及水热耦合运移模式研究

干旱地区土壤蒸发模拟及水热耦合运移研究,对干旱地区水资源利用、陆面过程及气候模式研究具有重要意义.通过对土壤蒸发与内部水分传输机理的深入了解,推导出土壤水热传输与土壤蒸发模式.为了比较模式模拟结果,利用本模式对CoLM陆面过程模式进行改进,并采用黑河沙漠站观测资料,对模式改进前后土壤蒸发与土壤温度和湿度模拟结果进行了对比.结果表明:改进后模式能够更好地模拟土壤温度与土壤蒸发,干旱条件下应考虑水汽对土壤水分与温度传输的影响.     

近50a西北干旱区气温分区及其变化趋势研究

近年来,在全球变暖的背景下,生态脆弱的西北干旱区的气候变化受到人们重视。本文选取了西北干旱区21个代表站点1951-2000年逐月平均气温数据,分析气温季节变化特征和分区及其各分区各季节气候变化趋势。研究结果表明,近50a来西北干旱区气候变暖显著,其中冬季增暖幅度最大。按西北干旱区的年平均气温分为四个区。它们各季节气温变化趋势都有所不同,其增加幅度和数目最多的是柴达木盆地,随后是新疆北部和东部,新疆南部、河西走廊地区,新疆西部。     

近20 a中国天山东段典型冰川变化及其气候响应

冰川作为重要的淡水资源的存储体,也是气候变化的敏感"指示器"。在干旱半干旱区,冰川变化对人们的生产、生活和生态产生重要的影响。本文基于1990—2015年Landsat TM及ETM+遥感影像数据,利用雪盖指数法(NDSI)和阈值法,分析博格达峰及喀尔力克山的冰川面积变化,结合长时间序列的气温、降水数据分析天山东段典型冰川的气候响应。结果表明:(1)博格达峰与喀尔力克山的冰川均呈现退缩趋势,与气温和降水的变化趋势一致。(2)博格达峰和喀尔力克山冰川面积变化在东南坡向有波动增加趋势,其他坡向则未出现该现象。(3)从两个冰川不同坡向的面积和面积重心分布变化分析,博格达峰冰川面积在东坡方向退缩速率最大,而喀尔力克山的冰川在东北坡方向退缩速率最大。(4)根据栅格气象资料分析,近四五十年博格达地区冰川面积退缩速率大于喀尔力克山地区,并且博格达峰降水量的增加对冰川的退缩起到的作用不大,喀尔力克山的降水量对冰川面积的退缩起到了一定的抑制作用。(5)通过对博格达峰地区和喀尔力克山地区不同坡向的冰川面积与年均气温、年均降水量进行Person相关性分析,博格达峰地区、喀尔力克山地区各个坡向的冰川面积变化与降水相关系数均很小。但博格达峰地区北、东北、东南坡向的冰川面积与区域气温变化相关系数较高,喀尔力克山地区东南、东北坡向的冰川面积与区域气温的相关系数高且显著性明显。分析其原因,在年内尺度上,博格达峰地区、喀尔力克山地区是湿季气温升高所致,干湿两季降水量的增多,并没有使得冰川整体的退缩有所减缓。     

Interactions between water-land resources and oasis urban development at the northern slopes of the Tianshan Mountains,Xinjiang,China

Urban development in arid and semi-arid regions is largely constrained by fragile physical environments.The characteristics of an urban settlement are different from those in other regions of China.This paper analyses the coupling characteristics and spatio-temporal variations for oasis urban development and water-land resources at the northern slopes of the Tianshan Mountains by principal component analysis and a coupling degree model.The result shows that the degree and change in regional use of water and land resources are different among the studied cities/counties during their development.The built-up areas of these cities/counties have changed little with increasing populations and urbanization levels,which well reflects that the urban development in arid and semi-arid regions is limited by oasis areas.Per capita amount of water supplied,however,presented a trend of slowed growth with increasing levels of urbanization.Water consumption gradually increased with urban development and the improvement of people's living standards,accompanied by enhanced water use efficiency. The level of urbanization can be assessed through the coupling degree between oasis urban development and the use of water and land resources.A high coupling degree represents a high level of comprehensive urban development and use of water-land resources.Alternatively,a low coupling degree denotes a low level of urban development and water-land resource use.     

基于LMDZ模型的西北干旱区水汽再循环率分析

局地水汽再循环是陆地水循环过程的重要环节。在我国西北干旱区水汽再循环的绝对量虽然有限,但对区域降水的贡献(即水汽再循环率)却不容忽视。本文基于嵌套同位素模块的LMDZ模式模拟数据,运用同位素混合模型,对西北干旱区1979-2007年水汽再循环率的时空特征及其作用机制进行了分析。结果表明:研究时段内,外来水汽对降水的月尺度和年尺度贡献率都明显高于再循环水汽,季节上呈夏高冬低,年际上呈逐渐上升的态势;而再循环水汽的贡献率较低,呈夏季低冬季高且逐年下降(冬半年植物蒸腾水汽的贡献率在年际上呈上升趋势)的特点。外来水汽对降水的贡献率存在空间差异,山区附近的值往往较高,荒漠平原区的值则较低。就地表蒸发与植物蒸腾而言,地表蒸发对降水的贡献率整体低于植物蒸腾,但在小范围地区也有相反的规律。外来水汽和地表蒸发水汽的贡献量与其贡献率的空间分布特征基本一致,而植物蒸腾水汽在山区的贡献量高于荒漠平原区。     

塔克拉玛干沙漠腹地参考作物蒸散量与蒸发皿蒸发量的对比分析

利用2005-2010年塔克拉玛干沙漠腹地气象资料计算了极端干旱区塔克拉玛干沙漠腹地参考作物蒸散量(ET0),并与气象站蒸发皿蒸发量(Ep)进行了对比分析及影响因素的灰色关联度排序。结果表明:极端干旱区ET0最大值出现于7月,最小值则出现在1月;Ep最大值分别出现在6月,最小值出现在12月。灰色关联分析表明,在年时间尺度上与ET0关系最为紧密的气象因子是Umean,其次是Tmax,而影响Ep气象因子最为紧密的气象因子是Tmax,其次是Umean;在春、夏、秋、冬四个季节尺度上夏季对影响ET0和Ep的气象因子差异最大。ET0与Ep在春、秋、冬三个季节都成极显著关系,而在夏季呈显著线性关系,因此在不同时间尺度上二者可以进行互相替换。