出口欧盟蜜柚风险分析和管理措施

收集和分析2011—2013年我国出口欧盟蜜柚被欧盟食品和饲料快速预警系统通报的数据,应用风险分析方法,评估农药残留、病虫害、品质等风险因子的风险等级。根据蜜柚注册果园管理的现状,提出相应的重点监控项目和风险管理措施。     

目前获得准入的新鲜水果种类及输出国家/地区名录

<正>中国国家质量监督检验检疫总局最新出炉《获得我国检验检疫准入的新鲜水果种类及输出国家/地区名录》,相比2014年底,新增南非苹果。同日,国家质检总局正式发布《进口南非鲜食苹果植物检验检疫要求》,自2015年2月3日起,允许符合条件的南非苹果进口。此次准入是根据我国专家对南非新鲜苹果的有害生物风险分析结果,结合实地考察情况,经中南两国检验检疫部门协商,最终得出的。据悉双方于     

从病害风险角度分析石榴鲜果安全出口--以云南蒙自产区为例

云南蒙自是我国石榴出口的主要产区之一。云南蒙自石榴在东南亚市场具有较强的竞争力。近年来当地石榴病害部分研究成果发表于国际期刊,对我国石榴鲜果进入国际高端市场产生了一定影响。本文以云南蒙自产区为例,根据果实病害调查结果,分析石榴病害、石榴鲜果病害的发生规律与病原菌的危险性,结合出口市场现状,分析石榴鲜果出口的安全性,以期为云南乃至全国出境石榴鲜果风险分析提供有关技术论证,提升应对国外技术性贸易措施的能力。     

苹果绵蚜风险分析和风险管理

苹果绵蚜是苹果树主要检疫性害虫,目前全国约有14个苹果产区遭受到绵蚜危害。依据林业检疫性有害生物风险分析评估方法,对苹果绵蚜存在的风险性进行了定向和定量分析。结果表明:苹果绵蚜寄生范围较广,存活率高,适应性强,繁殖率高,扩散速度快,隐蔽性强,危害严重,损失较大并且难以根除,在我国属于高度危险的有害生物,并提出了风险管理方案。     

检疫性黄瓜绿斑驳花叶病毒的检测和防疫控制

综述了黄瓜绿斑驳花叶病毒(Cucumber green mottle mosaic virus)的分布、识别特征、生物学特性、传播方式,及其检测技术和风险分析,并提出了相关防疫措施。     

南阳地区云斑白条天牛危险性风险分析

云斑白条天牛是南阳市多种树木严重的蛀干害虫。2016年对该虫进行了危险性风险分析,其风险评估值为R=2.08,属于高度危险性林业有害生物。     

蓝莓果腐病入侵我国的风险分析

蓝莓果腐病是蓝莓和蔓越莓种植业的最主要病害，也是《中华人民共和国进境植物检疫性有害生物名录》中的检疫性病害之一。随着我国蓝莓引种和种植面积的不断增加，其入侵和发生的风险也在不断升高，有必要对该病传入我国的风险进行分析。采用有害生物风险分析程序对其进行安全性评估，并应用多指标综合评价方法，对蓝莓果腐病菌的入侵风险进行定性和定量分析，计算综合风险值后确定其入侵的风险等级。蓝莓果腐病菌是对我国蓝莓产业的健康发展具有潜在威胁的有害生物，其综合风险值R为2.03，属于高风险病原物。     

云南牛肝菌出口贸易迎来新机遇

<正>据悉,云南省野生牛肝菌出口量约占我国牛肝菌出口总量的80%,是云南省传统大宗出口农产品之一。为持续推动牛肝菌产业发展,促进云南高原特色农产品扩大出口,日前,云南检验检疫局结合质检职能,立足产业实际,落实好国务院提出的简政放权、职能转变以及国家质检总局有关稳定和促进地方外贸经济发展的要求,大胆改革,积极帮扶助推云南牛肝菌扩大出口。该局创新检验监管模式,在风险分析的基础上,结合产品类别、日常检验检疫情况、出口国家检     

苹果GAP生产关键控制点

良好农业操作规范(Good Agricultural Practices,简称GAP)是农产品质量安全控制保障体系.苹果GAP通过对苹果产地环境、土壤、水、生产管理关键措施、产后贮藏和运输等环节进行质量安全风险分析,根据危害程度采取相应技术措施加以控制,从而确保生产出来的苹果能满足质量安全的要求.     

蔬菜农药残留质量追溯及分析

本文以大量的农残检测数据为基础,从不同抽样时间农残情况、蔬菜易超标农残项目、农药易超标蔬菜品种等角度,进行蔬菜风险分析,并发布风险预警。此外,在发生重大食品安全事件时,还可以对问题食品进行质量的溯源、寻找问题根源,并快速解决问题     

食用菌企业财务风险影响因素及防范

以国内食用菌企业为研究对象,通过实证分析得到如下研究结论,在食用菌企业财务风险管理过程中,投资风险、筹资风险、资金回笼风险和收益分配风险都是重要的影响因素。但在影响程度方面也存在着差异,资金回笼风险所占比重为0.423,影响程度最大,这也和食用菌企业的特殊性相关联;收益分配风险所占比重为0.124,影响程度最低,因此在食用菌企业财务风险管理过程中也应引起足够的重视。具体来看,应收账款风险所占比重为0.236,存货风险所占比重为0.215,现金流风险所占比重为0.189,在具体指标的控制上,食用菌企业可以以此为切入点。     

阳谷县特色农业西葫芦精细化气候区划研究

统计分析了2008—2011年阳谷县城区及8个乡镇共9个气象站点的气温、风速、相对湿度等数据,在此基础上对阳谷县特色农业西葫芦进行了精细化气候区划及气象灾害区划。研究结果表明,阳谷适宜西葫芦发芽的最佳时间为2月中旬至3月上旬,适宜生长的日数56—68d;阳谷县西葫芦病毒病风险度在0．18～0．52,其中金斗营镇属中灾害风险区,李台镇属于低灾害风险区,其他乡镇为轻微灾害风险区;阳谷县西葫芦灰霉病风险度在0．01—0．82,其中高庙王镇属高灾害风险区,阳谷县城、阿城镇、张秋镇、定水镇属于中灾害风险区,西湖镇、大布镇、石佛镇、郭屯镇属于轻微灾害风险区．其他乡镇为低灾害风险区：阳谷县综合农业气象灾害风险度在0．14-0．59,西南部的高庙王镇、金斗营镇综合气象灾害风险最高,处于综合气象中灾害风险区,西湖镇、大布镇、石佛镇、郭屯镇、七级镇西南至东北方向贯穿阳谷县西部为轻微灾害区,其他乡镇处于综合气象灾害低风险区,阳谷县综合气象灾害重风险区未出现。     

Impact of assessor on tree risk assessment ratings and prescribed mitigation measures

Tree risk assessment is an inherently human endeavor that can be influenced by risk perception, risk acceptance, and professional bias. Tree risk assessments from 296 arborists were evaluated to assess tree- and assessor-based factors that influenced ratings. Additionally, we investigated sources of variability associated with the main inputs of risk assessment – likelihood of impact ratings, likelihood of failure ratings, and consequences of failure ratings. Finally, we assessed the factors that influenced prescribed mitigation measures. Results indicate that professionals with training and industry credentials had lower risk ratings and were less likely to prescribe more active mitigation measures like tree removal. More notably, there was significant variability among raters, with the likelihood of impact and consequence of failure serving as the most variable factors in tree risk assessment.     

“互联网+”视域下农业众筹风险防范机制构建研究

农业众筹作为依托于互联网金融的新型融资工具,是一种新型的服务三农的融资模式,有助于推进农业供给侧结构性改革,为农村经济发展注入新活力。传统的风险防范机制已经不能适应农业众筹在模式、监管等方面发生的变化,为弥补传统农业众筹风险防范的局限,在分析农业众筹运作模式、风险来源的基础上,构建了农业众筹风险防范机制,并在此基础上提出了合理的风险防范措施,以提高农业众筹风险防范的实时化、智能化水平。     

Evaluating the risk of accessing green spaces in COVID-19 pandemic: A model for public urban green spaces (PUGS) in London

The pandemic caused by SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) at the beginning of 2020 has restricted the human population indoor with some allowance for recreation in green spaces for social interaction and daily exercise. Understanding and measuring the risk of COVID-19 infection during public urban green spaces (PUGS) visits is essential to reduce the spread of the virus and improve well-being. This study builds a data-fused risk assessment model to evaluate the risk of visiting the PUGS in London. Three parameters are used for risk evaluation: the number of new cases at the middle-layer super output area (MSOA) level, the accessibility of each public green space and the Indices of Multiple Deprivation at the lower-layer super output area (LSOA) level. The model assesses 1357 PUGS and identifies the risk in three levels, high, medium and low, according to the results of a two-step clustering analysis. The spatial variability of risk across the city is demonstrated in the evaluation. The evaluation of risk can provide a better metric to the decision-making at both the individual level, on deciding which green space to visit, and the borough level, on how to implement restricting measures on green space access.     

Upstream-to-downstream changes in nutrient export risk

Nutrient export coefficients are estimates of the mass of nitrogen (N) or phosphorus (P) normalized by area and time (e.g., kg/ha/yr). They have been estimated most often for watersheds ranging in size from 10² to 10⁴ hectares, and have been recommended as measurements to inform management decisions. At this scale, watersheds are often nested upstream and downstream components of larger drainage basins, suggesting nutrient export coefficients will change from one subwatershed to the next. Nutrient export can be modeled as risk where lack of monitoring data prevents empirical estimation. We modeled N and P export risk for subwatersheds of larger drainage basins, and examined spatial changes in risk from upstream to downstream watersheds. Spatial (subwatershed) changes in N and P risk were a function of in-stream decay, subwatershed land-cover composition, and subwatershed streamlength. Risk tended to increase in a downstream direction under low rates of in-stream decay, whereas high rates of in-stream decay often reduced risk to zero (0) toward downstream subwatersheds. On average, increases in the modeled rate of in-stream decay reduced risk by 0.44 for N and 0.39 for P. Interactions between in-stream decay, land-cover composition and streamlength produced dramatic changes in risk across subwatersheds in some cases. Comparison of the null cases of no in-stream decay and homogeneously forested subwatersheds with extant conditions indicated that complete forest cover produced greater reductions in nutrient export risk than a high in-stream decay rate, especially for P. High rates of in-stream decay and complete forest cover produced approximately equivalent reductions in N export risk for downstream subwatersheds. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

绿豆生产者风险偏好影响因素实证分析

为保持绿豆生产的可持续发展,稳定绿豆生产者的风险态度,使其在生产中降低风险投入的同时增加生产效益,利用黑龙江省213户绿豆生产者的调研数据,运用有序Probit模型对黑龙江省绿豆生产者风险偏好的影响因素进行分析。结果表明:从事绿豆种植年限、绿豆市场价格、退休后继续从事绿豆种植、主粮(玉米、大豆、水稻)种植面积占比增加均对不同程度的风险态度有影响。为稳定生产者的风险态度,提出了提高生产者们对绿豆种植风险的意识水平,多渠道加强培训;鼓励达到退休年龄的生产者继续从事绿豆种植;建议国家农业相关部门提高对主要粮食作物的补贴或惠民政策标准及价格的调控等建议。     

The spatial pattern of demographic performance as a component of sustainable landscape management and planning

Prioritizing habitat for animal conservation in heterogeneous landscapes requires an understanding of where animal occurrence coincides with human influences on demographic performance. We related broad-scale patterns of occurrence with risk of mortality among female Rocky Mountain elk (Cervus elaphus) in a human-modified landscape to develop a spatially-explicit framework for animal conservation at the landscape level. Variability in the spatial pattern of elk occurrence was driven by preference for specific habitat types as well as responses to human activity. In contrast, risk of mortality was a function of human modification of the landscape with little variation explained by habitat. Proximity to industrial development was associated with increased risk of mortality whereas proximity to residences and agricultural structures was associated with decreased risk. Individual-level results revealed added complexity, whereby risk of mortality was associated with a consistent pattern of occurrence relative to industrial development, yet the association between risk and occurrence relative to structures was highly variable and likely a function of disparate land-use priorities. Approaches to managing human-mediated risk at the landscape level are most effective when they decompose human activity into constituent parts influencing risk, and when individual variation relative to the population response is investigated. Conservation interventions need to target factors that have a consistent influence across the population rather than risk uncertainty that would arise from targeting factors that influence individuals in variable or situation-specific ways. The spatial tools developed herein provide guidance for sustainable landscape planning in the study area, while the concept of linking occurrence and demographic performance within a hierarchical modeling framework has general application for animal conservation in landscapes subject to change, human-caused or otherwise.     

环鄱阳湖区蔬菜中有机氯农药的分布特征与健康风险评价

利用GC—ECD检测环鄱阳湖区各基地和农家蔬菜中的有机氯农药残留。研究结果表明。12种有机氯农药（0cPs）在所有蔬菜中均有检出,∑OCPs的平均残留量为4．84～81．22μg／kg;从整体区域上来讲,六六六（HCHs）和滴滴涕（DDTs）残留量的高低顺序为：丸江市〉南昌市〉上饶市（鄱阳余干部分）。利用健康风险评价模型对该地区蔬菜中OCPs所致健康风险进行评价,结果表明,环鄱阳湖区蔬菜中OCPs对人体健康的风险处于较低水平．但HCHs远高于DDTs,且北部地区蔬菜中DDTs和HCHs的人均风险度均高于南部。     

Risk factors of respiratory infections in patients with hematopoietic stem cell transplantation at early stage

AIM:To investigate the pathological status, hematopoietic reconstitution and risk factors of respiratory infections(RI) in the patients with hematopoietic stem cell(HSC) transplantation at early stage. METHODS:The retrospective and case-control study, single-factor and Logistic analysis were performed to analyze the clinical data of 168 patients with HSC transplantation. RESULTS:The incidence rate of RI was 72.6%, upper RI was 44.0%, and lower RI was 28.6%. The cases with RI attacked before hematopoietic reconstitution were 81.1%. The risk factors of RI analyzed by single factor were age, origin of HSC, pretreatment, non-genetic transplantation, non-complete matching of human leukocyte antigen(HLA), hemogram recovery time, and independent risk factors were age and non-genetic transplantation. The risk factors of upper RI were age, origin of HSC, non-genetic transplantation, non-complete matching of HLA, hemogram recovery time, and independent risk factors were age and non-genetic transplantation. The risk factors of lower RI were the origin of HSC, non-genetic transplantation, non-complete matching of HLA, history of fungal pneumonia and graft-versus-host disease(GVHD), and independent risk factors were non-complete matching of HLA and history of fungal pneumonia. CONCLUSION:Higher incidence rate of RI exists at early stage of HSC transplantation, and independent risk factors include age, non-genetic transplantation, non-complete matching of HLA and history of fungal pneumonia.