Climate change impacts on agriculture and irrigation in the Lower Mekong Basin

According to hydrological simulations by the Mekong River Commission, average annual flow of the Mekong will not change significantly despite climate change. However, they projected increased variability in wet and dry season flows, which will tend to increase the flood and drought risks to crops. To learn the implications of climate change for rice farming in the Lower Mekong Basin (LMB), a lower part of the Basin from China-Lao PDR border to the South China Sea, climate and hydrological figures related to rice production were compared in between the baseline in 1985–2000 and the climate change scenario in 2010–2050. Special attention was given to their 10 and 90 % exceedance values, which are rough equivalence of 10 and 90 % cumulative probabilities, to see changes in the frequency and extent of extreme weather events. Major findings of this study include the followings: (1) evapo-transpirations will increase in both average and 90 % cumulative probability values, raising irrigation demand. (2) Deviation of the annual rainfall will become larger, causing water shortage in reservoirs more frequently in the future. (3) The transplanting date of rain-fed rice will be delayed more likely due to insufficient precipitation in the early wet season, which may result in decreasing rice production. (4) Longer dry spells will be observed during the wet season, raising the drought risk to rain-fed rice. (5) These changes will be generally observed across the LMB, while the extent of the changes varies among regions.     

Factors impacting yields in rain-fed paddies of the lower Mekong River Basin

The Mekong River Basin (MRB) is the biggest basin in Monsoon Asia. About 80% of the agricultural lands, which occupy about 40% of the basin are rain-fed paddy rice area. Therefore, it is assumed that changes in rain-fed paddy rice production affect the total agricultural production to a great degree in the Mekong River Basin. While there are many factors affecting the productivity of rain-fed paddies, such as climate, water use, rice varieties, applications of manure, fertilizer and agro-chemicals, sowing date and other agronomic practices, this paper focuses on the relation between rainfall and yields of rain-fed paddies. Agricultural statistics and rainfall data were collected and analyzed for all 24 provinces in Cambodia for the years 2001 and 2002. Factors such as soil fertility and other natural conditions were removed by comparing the yield and rainfall in one province for different years. Special attention was given to the relation between yields of paddy in the wet season and rainfall, considering factors such as rice varieties, soil fertility, irrigation ratio and the ratio of area damaged by flood, drought, and insect. Although it is not easy to assess those impact factors on yields because they are organically interactive, the following results were obtained: (1) The ratio of high yielding varieties (HYV), soil fertility, and irrigation ratio among many factors that affect yields individually, especially if they are combined, (2) Total rainfall did not have a significant influence on rice yields even for the rain-fed paddies if it was over 700 mm in wet season, and one of the reasons for this would be that there exist supplementary water uses through small ponds and water ponding in local land depressions in and around paddies.     

Impacts of climate change on rice market and production capacity in the Lower Mekong Basin

The supply of water is affected by climate changes. In addition, high economic growth in the lower Mekong River countries including two large rice exporters is expected to reduce the per capita consumption of rice as incomes grow. Consequently, the need exist to investigate changes in supply and demand using econometric models of rice markets in the countries, where water supplies are expected to change. The objective of this research is to clarify impacts of water supply changes on rice producers and consumers using supply and demand models of rice considering changes in the water supply to aid in producing agricultural policies and plans. The following two simulations were conducted in this assessment: (a) baseline and (b) CC_B2. The simulation of the baseline includes the assumption that the evapotranspiration (ET) of each province after 2000 is the average quantity of ET from 1995 to 1999. The simulation of the CC_B2 includes the assumptions that ET of each province after 2010 accords with the IPCC socioeconomic scenario B2. The simulation results suggest that climate change will depress wet season rice production in Cambodia and Mekong River Delta (MRD) region in Vietnam, and that of dry season rice in the MRD region in Vietnam and northeastern region (Isan) Thailand. The simulation results also indicate that climate change will increase farm prices of rice in Cambodia, Vietnam, and Thailand. The results suggest that climate changes will weigh on the livelihood of rice consumers, especially those of poor rural populations.

     

Impact of climate change on paddy field irrigation in southern Taiwan

Climate change can have a serious impact on water resources. The main agricultural product in southern Taiwan is rice, the planting of which consumes far more water than other crops. This makes agriculture in Taiwan especially vulnerable to climate change. In this study, we used the generalized watershed loading functions (GWLF) hydrological model to simulate the discharge of the Kaoping River under climate change scenarios A2 and B2 as released by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We discussed the potential impact of climate change on water resources based on the results of GWLF simulations carried out using rainfall and temperature data from five general circulation models (GCMs). The simulation results indicate that river discharge in the wet season increases significantly, and decreases in the dry season. The discharge variations from using the various GCMs as inputs fall within the range of ?26 to +15 % for the dry season and ?10 to +82 % for the wet season. The variation in available water will seriously impact the first period rice farming (the period between the beginning of January and the end of May) in southern Taiwan. Consequently, effective reduction in conveyance loss in the irrigation canal systems and proper fallowing of paddy fields will be the main challenges to Taiwan’s agricultural sector for alleviating the impact of climate change. For further decision making, we show the effects of adapting to climate change by various degrees of the following two methods: fallowing paddy fields to various degrees and reducing conveyance loss in irrigation canal systems.     

Impacts of climate change on rice market and production capacity in the Lower Mekong Basin

The supply of water is affected by climate changes. In addition, high economic growth in the lower Mekong River countries including two large rice exporters is expected to reduce the per capita consumption of rice as incomes grow. Consequently, the need exist to investigate changes in supply and demand using econometric models of rice markets in the countries, where water supplies are expected to change. The objective of this research is to clarify impacts of water supply changes on rice producers and consumers using supply and demand models of rice considering changes in the water supply to aid in producing agricultural policies and plans. The following two simulations were conducted in this assessment: (a) baseline and (b) CC_B2. The simulation of the baseline includes the assumption that the evapotranspiration (ET) of each province after 2000 is the average quantity of ET from 1995 to 1999. The simulation of the CC_B2 includes the assumptions that ET of each province after 2010 accords with the IPCC socioeconomic scenario B2. The simulation results suggest that climate change will depress wet season rice production in Cambodia and Mekong River Delta (MRD) region in Vietnam, and that of dry season rice in the MRD region in Vietnam and northeastern region (Isan) Thailand. The simulation results also indicate that climate change will increase farm prices of rice in Cambodia, Vietnam, and Thailand. The results suggest that climate changes will weigh on the livelihood of rice consumers, especially those of poor rural populations.     

A water balance model for characterization of length of growing period and water stress development for rainfed lowland rice

There is large year-to-year variation in rice production across the Mekong region (Laos, Cambodia and Thailand) due to uncertainty in the timing of the onset of the wet season and drought stress that may develop at any time during the growth of rainfed lowland rice. Unique to the nature of lowland water balance is a large component of deep percolation water loss, which depends on soil texture. The objectives of this study were to develop a soil water balance model for calculating the amount of water held in field storage (i.e. in soil and, if there is standing water, above the soil surface) and to apply it to determine the length of growing period (LGP) and water stress development in relation to soil type and rainfall pattern for the rice ecosystem. The water balance is computed separately for above-ground plus topsoil layer and subsoil layer. Components of the water balance are the existing amount of stored water, rainfall, evapotranspiration, deep percolation, and runoff. The deep percolation rate was determined from clay content in each soil layer. The model runs with daily or weekly weather data to estimate the soil water level for the growing period in the wet season. The model was validated with data collected from top, middle and bottom of rainfed lowland fields in Savannakhet province, Laos. The best correlation between the observed and simulated water level was obtained (r² = 0.41) for middle fields. The simulation results showed that LGP varied greatly from year to year, particularly in locations with sandy soils, due mostly to variation in monthly rainfall occurring at the early part of the growing season (April), but also to some extent by variation at the end of growing season (October). Soil texture on the other hand is shown to have a large influence on the end of the rice growing period and hence LGP, and also water stress development during growth. Sandy soils with clay content less than 7% that are prevalent in the province are shown to cause frequent water stress and early finish in rainfed lowland rice. The model accordingly provides reasonable outputs that can provide a geographical dimension of soil hydrological patterns for various rice growing environments, and also identify the spatial pattern of drought stress that is likely to occur. Model outputs can be used to provide guidelines for practical advice to the rice farmers and researchers for determination of appropriate crop management strategies (e.g. time of planting, varieties), and policy makers for investment decisions on inputs (e.g. fertilizer price) aimed at increasing rice productivity in this Mekong region.     

A model driven by crop water use and nitrogen supply for simulating changes in the regional yield of rain-fed lowland rice in Northeast Thailand

Climate change will have significant impacts on the rain-fed rice production ecosystem, and particularly on the ecosystem’s hydrology and water resources. Under rain-fed lowland conditions, substantial variations among fields in grain yield are commonly observed, but a method that can account for field-scale yield variability to produce regional-scale yield estimates is lacking, thereby limiting our ability to predict future rice production under changing climate and variable water resources. In this study, we developed a model for estimating regional yields of rain-fed lowland rice in Northeast Thailand, by combining a simple crop model with a crop calendar model. The crop model incorporates the effects of two important resources (water and nitrogen) on crop growth. The biomass accumulation is driven by water use, whereas the nitrogen supply determines canopy development and thereby constrains crop water use. Accounting for the wide range of planting dates and the strong photoperiod-sensitive characteristics of rice varieties through the calendar model is an essential component in determining regional yield estimates. The present model does not account for the effects of mid-season drought or flooding, but was nonetheless able to explain the spatial and temporal yield variations at the province level for the past 25 years. Thus, it can be used as a prototype for simulating regional yields of rain-fed lowland rice.     

Evapotranspiration,irrigation water requirement,and water productivity of rice (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Oryza sativa</Emphasis> L.) in the Sahelian environment

Rice is the main crop produced in the Senegal River Valley under the semiarid Sahelian climate where water resource management is critical for the resource use sustainability. However, very limited data exit on rice water use and irrigation water requirement in this water scarcity environment under climate change conditions. Understanding crop water requirements is essential for better irrigation practices, scheduling and efficient use of water. The objectives of this study were to estimate crop water use and irrigation water requirement of rice in the Senegal River Valley at Fanaye. Field experiments were conducted during the 2013 hot and dry season and wet season, and 2014 hot and dry season and wet seasons. Three nitrogen fertilizer treatments were applied to rice variety Sahel 108: 60, 120, and 180 kg N ha^?1. Rice water use was estimated by the two-step approach. Results indicated that crop actual evapotranspiration (ETa) varied from 632 to 929 mm with the highest ETa obtained during the hot and dry seasons. Irrigation water requirement varied from 863 to 1198 mm per season. Rice grain yield was function of the growing season and varied from 4.1 to 10.7 tons ha^?1 and increased with nitrogen fertilizer rate. Rice water use efficiency relative to ETa and irrigation requirements increased with nitrogen fertilizer rate while rice nitrogen use efficiency decreased with the nitrogen fertilizer rates. The results of this study can be used as a guideline for rice water use and irrigation water requirement for the irrigation design projects, consultants, universities, producers, and other operators within rice value chain in the Senegal River Valley.     

Modeling the dependence of the crop calendar for rain-fed rice on precipitation in Northeast Thailand

Rain-fed lowlands are major agricultural ecosystems used for rice production in Northeast Thailand. Developing a tool to assess the effects of variable water conditions on the regional scale yield is also important to predict the effects of climate change on food supply. To estimate regional yields, we need a simple but accurate measure of the crop calendar (i.e., the distribution of planting dates), which has a strong influence on grain yield. In this article, we modeled the dependence of the crop calendar on rainfall patterns based on a survey of the region’s farmers as a part of an effort to provide a stronger basis for regional yield estimates. Our survey, conducted in 11 provinces for 2 years, confirmed the existence of large windows for sowing and transplanting versus narrow windows for heading and harvesting for rain-fed lowland rice culture in all the provinces. Variable water, soil, and toposequential conditions in the paddy fields were responsible for the large sowing and transplanting windows, whereas the use of photoperiod-sensitive varieties explained the narrow windows for heading and harvesting. The crop calendar was well expressed as a function of cumulative precipitation from June onward. When the crop calendar model was combined with a simple phenology-based model that uses growing degree-days adjusted by a day-length factor, we could estimate the rice crop calendar under rain-fed lowland conditions with acceptable accuracy. The model described in this article will be combined with a crop growth model to improve regional yield estimates for rain-fed lowland rice.     

Climate change’s impact on irrigation system and farmers’ response: a case study of the Plaichumpol Irrigation Project,Phitsanulok Province,Thailand

The Plaichumpol Irrigation Project, in Nan Basin of Thailand, is selected as a case study of impact study, where farmers depended on both surface and groundwater sources (especially in the dry year), to assess the impact on irrigation systems. The study used the MRI-GCM data to project the future climate condition and assess the impact on irrigation systems focusing on water shortage and groundwater pumping aspects in the selected consecutive dry years. The responses from farmers on the impact and adaptation were also gathered via site interviews and analyzed. Based on the bias-corrected MRI-GCM data, the annual rainfall in Nan Basin will decrease in the near future (2015–2039), compared with the past average data (1979–2006), while the rainfall will increase in the far future (2075–2099) compared with past. Water supply from dam will decrease in wet season and dry season, while water demand in both of near future and far future will increase in wet season and dry season. Less water shortage and groundwater pumping in both near-future and far-future periods are expected in the future consecutive dry years compared with the past, though the groundwater is still an important supplementary irrigation water source in the dry year. From the field interview, the farmers are ready to adapt to the changing situations and join in the water use meeting to follow up with irrigation officers about the adjustment of plant calendar and water allocation due to the climate change and to prepare adaptation measures as necessary.

     

Climate change’s impact on irrigation system and farmers’ response: a case study of the Plaichumpol Irrigation Project,Phitsanulok Province,Thailand

The Plaichumpol Irrigation Project, in Nan Basin of Thailand, is selected as a case study of impact study, where farmers depended on both surface and groundwater sources (especially in the dry year), to assess the impact on irrigation systems. The study used the MRI-GCM data to project the future climate condition and assess the impact on irrigation systems focusing on water shortage and groundwater pumping aspects in the selected consecutive dry years. The responses from farmers on the impact and adaptation were also gathered via site interviews and analyzed. Based on the bias-corrected MRI-GCM data, the annual rainfall in Nan Basin will decrease in the near future (2015–2039), compared with the past average data (1979–2006), while the rainfall will increase in the far future (2075–2099) compared with past. Water supply from dam will decrease in wet season and dry season, while water demand in both of near future and far future will increase in wet season and dry season. Less water shortage and groundwater pumping in both near-future and far-future periods are expected in the future consecutive dry years compared with the past, though the groundwater is still an important supplementary irrigation water source in the dry year. From the field interview, the farmers are ready to adapt to the changing situations and join in the water use meeting to follow up with irrigation officers about the adjustment of plant calendar and water allocation due to the climate change and to prepare adaptation measures as necessary.     

Modeling risk analysis for rice production due to agro-climate change in Taiwan

This study proposes a risk analysis model for the rice production due to climate change in terms of agro-climate indices (i.e., cumulative temperature anomaly, cumulative precipitation anomaly, cumulative sunlight anomaly, cumulative radiation anomaly, and E1 Niño). This risk analysis model is developed by incorporating the multivariate Monte Carlo simulation method, multivariate regression equation, and uncertainty analysis method (advanced first-order second-moment, AFOSM). The study area is composed of 15 counties/cities in Taiwan, East Asia. The data set for the model development and applicability contains 27 years of annual rice productions and agro-climate indices in addition to cultivation areas. Through the proposed risk analysis model, it can be seen that the rice production in Taiwan is especially sensitive to temperature, precipitation, and sunlight. Also, on average, improving performance by reducing insufficient rice risk can rise by 80 % when the rice production increases from 3 × 10⁴ to 3 × 10⁵ tons.     

Climate Change and Its Repercussions for the Potato Supply Chain

Since the onset of the industrial revolution, in 1750, the concentration of carbon dioxide rose from 290 to 380 parts per million. Especially during the last decennia, the effects of increased greenhouse gases concentrations are being felt. The last 14 years worldwide contained the warmest 13 years since weather recording started. For southern Europe, the major effects reported by the International Panel on Climate Change are reduced water availability and a shorter suitable winter time slot for potato production. For northern Europe, climate change will bring a decreasing number of days with frost and a lengthening of the growing season. It will be associated with more rain in winter and less in summer, with more erratic but heavier rain storms. For potato production in Mediterranean and Sahelian types of climate, during the heat-free period of the year, yields will go down as the suitable period becomes shorter. With a higher evaporative demand, the resource water will be used less efficiently. Potato yields in temperate climates may increase—provided that water for irrigation is available—due to a longer growing season and higher carbon dioxide concentrations in the air. The quality may be affected as larger tubers with a higher dry matter concentration are expected. Problems with pests and diseases are expected to increase with a longer growing season at higher temperature which allows more cycles of multiplication and greater pressure. Late blight will also have a longer period to build up and erratic rains will make control more difficult. Seed production with increased vector pressure will become more costly because fewer field generations will follow the rapid multiplication stage and seed production may move further north. Present potato areas in Europe, however, are more affected by economic factors such as inadequate farm size, changing habits, and remoteness of markets than by climate determined suitability of growing conditions. To remain competitive, the industry will have to invest in strengthening existing production areas and assess the potential of new potato production areas (further north), in new varieties adapted to extremes in weather (heat, drought), in irrigation equipment, in equipment better adapted to wet soil conditions to assure accessibility, and in improved stores with more stores equipped with refrigeration as higher winter temperatures more frequently will make it impossible to keep ware potatoes cool with ambient air. Assessment of both climate change and market liberalization in Europe shows other roads ahead than when only climate effects are taken into consideration.     

Features of the AFFRC model for evaluating the relationship between the water cycle and rice production

This paper introduces the Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Research Council of Japan (AFFRC) model, an integrated model that predicts future rice production in the Mekong River basin by taking into account the effect of global warming on both the water cycle and the rice economy. The model focuses especially on the water balance of paddy fields for different farmland water use systems. We defined six categories of irrigated paddies and three categories of rain-fed paddies on the basis of their systems of water usage. We included a process-based model to predict future rice production, accounting for daily changes in available water resources such as precipitation. Many models of crop production treat rice in the same way as other crops; the particular characteristics of rice farming are considered in more detail in our model. Our results show that it is possible to estimate future rice production in the Mekong River basin by taking into account changes in available water, and to model the resultant effects on the grain market.     

Rice establishment method affects nitrogen use and crop production of rice–legume systems in drought-prone eastern India

The inclusion of grain legumes in rainfed lowland rice farming systems provides an opportunity to increase food production, household income, and human nutrition of impoverished rice farmers in Asia. We examined the effect of rice establishment method on the performance of wet season rice (Oryza sativa L.) and post-rice crops of either chickpea (Cicer arietinum L.) or moong [Vigna radiata (L.) Wilczek] on an Udic Haplustalf in the drought-prone, rainfed lowlands of eastern India. Rice was either direct seeded in lines on moist soil immediately after the onset of wet season rain or transplanted after sufficient rainwater accumulated for soil submergence. Crop establishment method had no effect on rice performance in a season (2001) with normal rainfall. In a drought season (2002), direct seeding resulted in mean rice grain yield of 2.3 t ha⁻¹, whereas the transplanted rice crop failed. The agronomic efficiency of N fertilizer applied to direct-seeded rice was comparable for the 2 years (18 and 24 kg grain per kg N applied). Topsoil inorganic N was markedly higher following chickpea and moong than following a post-rice fallow. Direct-seeded rice had higher yield and accumulation of N following a post-rice legume than following fallow, but transplanted rice derived no such benefit from the legume. Direct-seeded rice was established 1–2 months before transplanted rice, and direct-seeded rice matured before transplanted rice by 8 days in the favorable season and by 26 days in the drought season. The soil nitrate present after legumes and fallow rapidly disappeared, presumably by denitrification, following the onset of rains and soil flooding prior to transplanting. A portion of this accumulated soil nitrate was taken up by the direct-seeded rice before it could be lost. But transplanted rice did not benefit from this inorganic N derived from legumes because virtually all soil nitrate was lost before transplanting. Direct seeding of rice ensured better use of residual and applied N, reduced risk due to drought, and favored intensification with post-rice legumes in drought-prone lowland systems.     

Lasting effects of controlled irrigation during rice-growing season on nitrous oxide emissions from winter wheat croplands in Southeast China

Nitrous oxide (N₂O) emission from croplands in China is a serious environmental concern. Water management is an important factor in regulating N₂O emissions from croplands. In China, controlled irrigation (CI) is one mode of the water-saving irrigation for rice and is widely used. This study aims to assess the lasting effects of CI on N₂O emissions from winter wheat croplands in Southeast China, with traditional irrigation (TI) as the control. CI performed during the rice-growing season had obvious lasting effects on N₂O emissions of the subsequent winter wheat-growing season. Compared with TI, CI significantly increased the cumulative N₂O emission by 129.1 % during the rice-growing season (p < 0.05), but significantly decreased it by 47.7 % during the wheat season (p < 0.05). Continuous flooding of the TI during most of the rice-growing season resulted in an increase in N₂O emissions during the winter wheat-growing season. Over the whole annual cycle, the cumulative N₂O emission from the plots under CI during the rice-growing season was 5.3 kg N₂O–N ha^?1, which was 103.2 % of that under TI (p > 0.05). The results suggest that CI does not significantly increase the cumulative N₂O emission from the rice–winter wheat rotation systems while insuring rice and wheat yields. This study focuses on the lasting effects of water-saving irrigation mode during rice-growing season on N₂O emissions during the following wheat-growing season. Thus, it is a development and complement of the previous researches on the effects of water-saving irrigation on N₂O emissions from rice–winter wheat rotation croplands.     

Technological spillover in Japanese rice productivity under long-term climate change: evidence from the spatial econometric model

Rice productivity will be affected by climate conditions not only in own region but also in neighboring regions through technological spillover. Measuring such direct and indirect influence of future climate change is important for policy making. This study analyzes socio-economic and climate factors in rice total factor productivity (TFP) and evaluates technological spillover effects by using the spatial econometric model. To consider geographical situation, we use hydrological model in addition to crop-yield and crop-quality models. Results show that spatial autoregressive tendencies were observed in rice TFP, even though the influences of climate factors were removed. Such spatial dependence brings about synergistic effects among neighboring prefectures in northern Japan and depression effects, like a spatial trap, from neighbors in southern Japan. Substantial impacts of climate change were as high as socio-economic factors but different in degrees by regions. Also, future climate change estimated by the global climate model enlarged fluctuation degree in rice TFP because accumulative or cancel out effects of temperature and precipitation occurred year by year. Therefore, technological development in rice production and provision of precise climate prediction to farmers are important in order to ease and mitigate these influences.     

Agronomic and economic evaluation of Sesbania rostrata green manure establishment in irrigated rice

Research on crop establishment methods may improve green manure performance, reduce costs, and increase the adaptability of pre-rice green manure technology in lowland rice-based cropping systems. A two-season field experiment was conducted at the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI) in Los Baños, Philippines in 1991–1992 to compare four establishment practices of Sesbania rostrata green manure (zero tillage, with tillage, relay cropping in rice for 2 or 4 weeks) with four mineral N fertilizer levels (0, 30, 60, and 90 kg urea N/ha) in an intensive irrigated lowland system with three rice crops per year. S. rostrata was grown twice a year during the 43-day dry-wet and wet-dry transition periods between the wet and dry season rice crops.

Grain yield potential and fertilizer responsiveness of rice was generally highest in the dry season. On the other hand, S. rostrata growth was more vigorous in the wet season (long-day period) than in the dry season, regardless of establishment method. Green manure N accumulation was lowest with zero tillage (30 and 90 kg N/ha in dry and wet season, respectively) and highest when it was relay-cropped for two weeks (60 and 180 kg N/ha in dry and wet season, respectively). Land preparation for Sesbania ensured best green manure stand (> 100 plants/m² vs 20–40 plants/m² at no-till establishments) but increased costs of green manuring by US$16/ha compared with other establishment methods. A quadratic response function between mineral fertilizer equivalence and green manure N indicated that up to 75 kg N/ha, lowland rice uses green manure N more efficiently than urea. Depending on season and establishment method, S. rostrata substituted for 35 to 90 kg of split-applied urea N. Benefit-cost ratios indicated that pre-rice green manure use in the wet season under the current fertilizer and labor prices in the Philippines was a less attractive economic option than mineral N fertilizer. This was true for all establishment methods. In the dry season, S. rostrata established by relay cropping gave the highest rate of return. The 2-week relay cropping of green manure with irrigated rice gave highest green manure N accumulation and rice grain yield, and may be economically viable where fertilizer prices are higher or labor costs are lower than in the Philippines.     

A decision-making model for rice paddy cropping in an urbanizing area of the Lao PDR

In Southeast Asia, economic and population growth are expected in the near future. Rapid change is anticipated especially in the Lao PDR. Concern has been expressed that population growth will lead to an increased demand for food and economic growth to changes in the use of land. For food production to keep pace with the growth of population, it is very important to understand decision-making in rice paddy cultivation in urbanizing areas; for this reason, this study with the SEM model was conducted. The original data were collected by a questionnaire survey in some Lao villages; the survey included questions on various conditions, such as the availability of water in the dry season (irrigation), the access to a city, and job opportunities other than farming. The findings of the study demonstrate that the planting of a second rice crop was related to such factors as the productivity of rain-fed rice and cash crops and, most importantly, job opportunities other than farming.     

Variability in meteorological droughts as pivotal mechanism for rice production over the middle gangetic plains

The meteorological drought dynamics and its impacts on rice productivity has been evaluated for the Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) season using the standardized precipitation index (SPI) over the middle Gangetic plains (MGP) of Bihar. The meteorological drought over the ISMR period was found to be a recurring phenomenon coinciding with the rice growing season over Bihar. The rice crop has an intensive water requirement; therefore, it is significantly impacted by the meteorological droughts. In the present study, spatiotemporal characteristics viz. intensity, frequency, and probability of meteorological drought has been assessed along with an investigation for significant trends and detection of regime shift points to identify the impact of drought on rice production. For the purpose, SPI-4 derived from high resolution gridded daily rainfall data (0.25^°?×?0.25^°) from India Meteorological Department (IMD) has been considered to analyse the meteorological drought episodes over agro-climatic zones of Bihar from 1961 to 2019. The regime shifts were determined using the Rodionov test for the drought dynamics and production of rice in Bihar. A moderate to severe drought-prone zone was found over the zone BRZ3B; while zone BRZ2 and BRZ3A showed comparatively a greater number of mild drought events persisting with more than 70% probability of occurrence. An inkling of increasing dependency on groundwater is found, which is in turn governing the rice production regime. The present study shows there is a substantial need for climate resilience and food security policies incorporating the subtle linkage between SPI variability and crop production, especially over rice producing regions of the globe.