施肥对旱作免耕土壤酶活性与CO_2排放量的影响

通过对不同施肥处理的免耕土壤酶活性和CO2排放通量测定分析,研究北方农牧交错区施肥对旱作免耕农田土壤酶活性、CO2排放量的影响及其相互关系,为提高土壤质量、实现固碳减排和可持续利用提供理论依据。结果表明:免耕施肥土壤酶活性和CO2排放通量高于不施肥处理;氮肥对脲酶、碱性磷酸酶、蔗糖酶活性和CO2排放通量的增加影响最大,其次是磷肥,钾肥最小;过氧化氢酶活性的增加受钾肥影响最大,磷肥次之,氮肥最小;氮磷或氮磷钾肥配施更能增加土壤酶活性和CO2排放通量,单施钾肥土壤过氧化氢酶活性高于氮磷肥配施。蔗糖酶和脲酶活性与土壤CO2排放量呈显著正相关,碱性磷酸酶和过氧化氢酶与土壤CO2排放量之间相关性不显著。     

氮肥与秸秆还田对陕西关中灌区冬小麦 农田CO2排放的影响

利用静态暗箱-气相色谱法对陕西关中灌区不同氮素用量及秸秆还田处理(190 kg N·hm-2,N190;150 kgN·hm-2,N150; 75 kg N·hm-2,N75; 150 kg N·hm-2+ 5000 kg· hm-2秸秆,N150+S)下冬小麦农田CO2排放及其影响因素进行研究.结果表明:农田CO2排放通量呈明显的季节变化规律,且与温度的动态变化趋势相一致;各处理CO2排放通量与大气温度和土壤温度均具有极显著的指数相关关系,且与大气温度相关性最好;全生长季各处理累积CO2排放量顺序为:N1S0+ S＞ N150≈N190＞ N75,在中低氮水平范围内CO2排放量随施氮量增加而增加,秸秆还田增加了农田CO2排放,排放量较不还田增加18％.     

基于PCA-SVR模型的中国CO_2排放量预测研究

CO_2排放量预测可以为我国大气环境治理及区域可持续发展提供决策支持。论文构建了一个基于主成分分析(PCA)和支持向量回归(SVR)的中国CO_2排放量组合预测模型,以固定资本消耗、耗电量、石油消耗量、国家消费支出、居民最终收入、国内生产总值、总人口七个与CO_2排放相关的社会经济指标作为输入变量,CO_2排放量作为目标预测变量。PCA-SVR模型的预测结果为平均绝对百分误差(MAPE)达到0.0812,均方根误差(RMSE)是0.90,显著小于其他模型误差。同时应用PCA-SVR组合模型对中国2016年至2021年的CO_2排放量进行预测,结果显示未来五年我国CO_2排放量将在99.5亿吨到280.1亿吨浮动,而我国"十三五"末2020年的CO_2排放总量控制目标是105亿吨,在预测范围的下限附近。因此,有必要加大政策实施力度,进一步控制工业和居民生活的CO_2排放量,才能实现我们国家制定的105亿排放目标。     

黑龙江省工业SO2排放与经济发展关系演变及成因分析

经济与环境协调发展是建设资源节约型和环境友好型社会的核心内容。通过对1981-2006年黑龙江省工业SO2排放与经济发展之间动态关系的分析,结果表明:1981年以来黑龙江省工业SO2排放量经历了先减后升的过程,排放强度显著下降,主要来源于能源生产、造纸及纸制品、非金属矿物制品等制造业部门,资源型城市的排放量占全省工业SO2排放量的50%以上,而综合性工业城市则占到1/3左右。EKC模型对工业SO2排放与人均GDP之间关系的模拟结果表明,二者之间呈现较为典型的U型关系。分解分析结果显示,规模效应、清洁技术效应是影响工业SO2排放的重要因素,其中清洁技术效应对工业SO2减排目标的实现具有决定性控制作用。     

不同耕作方式下旱作玉米田土壤CO2排放量及其与土壤水热的关系

为探讨不同耕作方式对旱作玉米田土壤CO_2排放量的影响,设置深松耕(DT)、翻耕(PT)和免耕(NT)3个处理,分析3种耕作方式下土壤CO_2排放量的动态变化及其与土壤温度和土壤水分间的关系。结果显示:2010-2011年夏玉米生长季,3种耕作方式下土壤CO_2排放量均呈先增后降的变化趋势,表现为DTPTNT,且不同处理间差异显著(P0.05);耕作方式可显著影响夏玉米生育前期土壤温度,且土壤CO_2排放量对不同耕作方式下土壤温度的敏感性不同,土壤温度分别可以解释PT、DT和NT处理土壤CO_2排放量季节变化的50.72%~53.90%、48.10%~59.63%和13.31%~19.90%;土壤水分和温度共同分别可以解释旱作夏玉米田DT和PT处理下土壤CO_2排放量季节变化的57.61%~76.83%和56.62%~67.12%。土壤温度和水分是影响旱作农田DT和PT处理下土壤CO_2排放量的关键因素。     

中国第三产业碳排放量与入境旅游人均消费的相关关系探析

CO2排放已成为全球环境研究关注的焦点,近年来政府、相关研究者也开始重视旅游业对全球环境变化的影响。认识旅游活动与CO2排放的关系,分析旅游活动中影响CO2排放的主要因素与原因对于实现旅游业的绿色发展有重要意义。运用SPSS软件对1980-2002年我国入境旅游人均消费与第三产业碳排放量进行相关分析。结果表明:中国入境旅游人均消费与第三产业碳排放呈显著相关性,且二次曲线方程能映示20多年来中国入境旅游人均消费与第三产业碳排放之间的关系,这种"U"型曲线的右半部分说明随着入境旅游人均消费水平的提高,对碳排放的影响开始是缓慢增加,后来呈加速增加,能很好反映我国旅游发展与环境保护之间仍存在着较突出的矛盾,要达到二者协调发展的阶段仍是漫长的过程;在入境旅游者消费中,人均交通、餐饮、住宿等的消费与中国第三产业碳排放都有相关性,与中国第三产业碳排放相关性最大的是交通消费,其次是餐饮消费,较小的是住宿消费;入境旅游者的人均消费水平、消费结构及在交通、餐饮、住宿等消费活动都是影响碳排放的重要因素。并在分析其原因的基础上,对我国未来旅游业的绿色发展及减少碳排放提出一些建议。     

西安市环境库兹涅茨曲线分析

借助1990-2010年的统计数据,运用Eview软件,对西安市的经济增长与环境3大指标（工业废气、废水、固体废物）之间的关系进行拟合,对其关系是否符合环境库兹涅茨曲线（EKC）倒“U”型模型进行验证,并采用因素分析法,对影响环境质量的因子进行分析。结果表明：① 西安市经济增长与环境3大指标之间的关系都不符合环境库兹涅茨曲线,经济增长与废气排放和废水排放的关系均满足倒“N”型曲线,与固体废物排放的关系基本满足“U”型曲线;② 废气排放与废水排放开始显示下降趋势,而固体废物的排放依然在不断上升,并且没有发现达到最高点的迹象;③西安市的环境质量变化主要是由经济因素引起的。     

不同耕作措施下旱作春小麦农田二氧化碳排放模拟及敏感性分析

为探讨不同耕作措施下旱作春小麦农田CO2排放以及气候条件、土壤性质和作物管理措施对CO2排放影响的敏感性差异,本文基于DNDC模型,结合定西试验区旱作春小麦农田定点连续监测的CO2排放通量等数据,检验该模型模拟不同耕作措施下CO2排放的适宜性,并对其敏感性进行研究.结果表明:DNDC模型对不同处理下CO2排放的模拟结果...     

中国非能源利用的CO_2储存和释放研究

矿物燃料在非能源利用过程中的碳储存和释放是一个值得研究的问题。介绍了计算非能源利用的CO2储存和释放的IPCC方法和物流分析法。运用IPCC方法和基于物流分析原理的NEAT模型计算了中国1993-1999年的非能源利用的CO2储存和释放情况。结果表明,中国非能源利用的CO2储存和释放量不断增加。遵循IPCC原则,CO2储存量由1993年的0.897亿吨增加到1999年的1.295亿吨,占中国CO2排放量的3.31%~4.56%;由NEAT模型计算的结果与运用IPCC方法计算的结果差别显著,按照消费者原则,CO2储存量由1993年的0.442亿吨增加到1999年的1.074亿吨,占中国CO2排放量的1.66%~3.52%。因此,按照NEAT计算,中国的CO2排放量在1993-1999年间比按照IPCC原则计算的结果高1.04%~1.65%,其中,1999年约增加0.72%,2214.6万吨。最后对计算结果的误差进行了讨论。     

陕甘宁老区农村人口素质与农民经济收入关系分析

陕甘宁老区是我国的贫困地区之一 ,许多农民年人均收入不足百元 ,农民生活十分贫困。笔者在实地考察、调研的基础上 ,阐述了人口素质对经济的影响和重要意义 ,并具体分析了陕甘宁老区农户户主文化程度、年龄等农村人口素质与农村经济收入的定量关系。为解决该区域的贫困问题提供参考依据。     

Changes in carbon dioxide emissions and LMDI-based impact factor decomposition： the Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region as a case

Studies on carbon dioxide(CO2)emissions at provincial level can provide a scientific basis for the optimal use of energy and the formulation of CO2reduction policies.We studied the variation of CO2emissions of primary energy consumption and its influencing factors based on data in Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region from1952 to 2008,which were calculated according to the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories.Xinjiang’s CO2emission process from 1952 to 2008 could be divided into five stages according to the growth rates of total amount of CO2emissions and CO2emission intensity.The impact factors were quantitatively analyzed using Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index(LMDI)method in each stage.Various factors,including government policies and technological progress related to the role of CO2emissions,were comprehensively analyzed,and the internal relationships among various factors were clarified.The results show that the contribution rates of various impact factors are different in each stage.Overall,economic growth and energy consumption intensity were the main driving factors for CO2emissions.Since the implementation of the birth control policy,the driving force of population growth on the increase in CO2emissions has slowly weakened.The energy consumption intensity was further affected by the industrial structure and energy consumption intensity of primary,secondary and tertiary industries,with the energy consumption intensity of the secondary industries and the proportion of secondary industries being the most important factors affecting the energy consumption intensity.Governmental policies and technological progress were also important factors that affected CO2emissions.     

The relationship between energy consumption and economic growth and the development strategy of a low-carbon economy in Kazakhstan

Fossil energy is the material basis of human survival, economic development and social progress. The relationship between energy consumption and economic growth is becoming increasingly close. However, energy consumption is the major source of greenhouse gases, which can significantly affect the balance of the global ecosystem. It has become the common goal of countries worldwide to address climate change, reduce carbon dioxide emissions, and implement sustainable development strategies. In this study, we applied an approximate relationship analysis, a decoupling relationship analysis, and a trend analysis to explore the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth using data from Kazakhstan for the period of 1993–2010. The results demonstrated:(1) the total energy consumption and GDP in Kazakhstan showed a "U"-type curve from 1993 to 2010. This curve was observed because 1993–1999 was a period during which Kazakhstan transitioned from a republic to an independent country and experienced a difficult transition from a planned to a market economy. Then, the economic system became more stable and the industrial production increased rapidly because of the effective financial, monetary and industrial policy support from 2000 to 2010.(2) The relationships between energy consumption and carbon emissions, economic growth and energy exports were linked; the carbon emissions were mainly derived from energy consumption, and the dependence of economic growth on energy exports gradually increased from 1993 to 2010. Before 2000, the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth was in a recessional decoupling state because of the economic recession. After 2000, this relationship was in strong and weak decoupling states because the international crude oil prices rose and energy exports increased greatly year by year.(3) It is forecasted that Kazakhstan cannot achieve its goal of energy consumption by 2020. Therefore, a low-carbon economy is the best strategic choice to address climate change from a global perspective in Kazakhstan. Thus, we proposed strategies including the improvement of the energy consumption structure, the development of new energy and renewable energy, the use of cleaner production technologies, the adjustment and optimization of the industrial structure, and the expansion of forest areas.     

Low-carbon economic development in Central Asia based on LMDI decomposition and comparative decoupling analyses

Low-carbon economic development is a strategy that is emerging in response to global climate change. Being the third-largest energy base in the world, Central Asia should adopt rational and efficient energy utilization to achieve the sustainable economic development. In this study, the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) decomposition method was used to explore the influence factors of CO₂ emissions in Central Asia (including Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan) during the period 1992-2014. Moreover, decoupling elasticity and decoupling index based on the LMDI decomposition results were employed to explore the relationship between economic growth and CO₂ emissions during the study period. Our results show that the total CO₂ emissions decreased during the period 1992-1998, influenced by the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 and the subsequent financial crisis. After 1998, the total CO₂ emissions started to increase slowly along with the economic growth after the market economic reform. Energy-related CO₂ emissions increased in Central Asia, mainly driven by economic activity effect and population effect, while energy intensity effect and energy carbon structure effect were the primary factors inhibiting CO₂ emissions. The contribution percentages of these four factors (economic activity effect, population effect, energy intensity effect and energy carbon structure effect) to the total CO₂ emissions were 11.80%, 39.08%, -44.82% and -4.32%, respectively, during the study period. Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan released great quantities of CO₂ with the annual average emissions of 189.69×10⁶, 45.55×10⁶ and 115.38×10⁶ t, respectively. In fact, their economic developments depended on high-carbon energies. The decoupling indices clarified the relationship between CO₂ emissions and economic growth, highlighting the occurrence of a 'weak decoupling' between these two variables in Central Asia. In conclusion, our results indicate that CO₂ emissions are still not completely decoupled from economic growth in Central Asia. Based on these results, we suggest four key policy suggestions in this paper to help Central Asia to reduce CO₂ emissions and build a resource-conserving and environment-friendly society.     

新疆经济增长和能源优势的关系——基于＂资源诅咒＂假说的实证分析

从＂资源诅咒＂假说出发,对新疆维吾尔自治区的经济增长和能源优势之间的关系进行了协整检验,检验结果证明新疆确实存在＂资源诅咒＂现象。在进一步检验的基础上,文中研究发现新疆＂资源诅咒＂的传导机制为典型的＂荷兰病＂效应,即能源产业对制造业、人力资本和制度公平都产生了＂挤出＂。在以上分析的基础上,提出了破解新疆＂资源诅咒＂的政...     

银川市经济增长与环境质量关系演化研究

统筹经济增长与环境质量的关系,是城市可持续发展的客观要求。借鉴已有成果,选取了工业"三废"排放及其人均GDP指标,运用二次回归计量模型,借助SPSS统计软件,对银川市近10年来的经济发展与环境质量的关系进行了拟合。研究结果显示:1)银川市工业"三废"与GDP之间的关系,三次曲线模型的拟合效果最佳;2)随着人均GDP的增长,银川市工业废水的排放量由加速度减小的减少状态变为加速度增大的增加状态,工业废气的排放量由加速度减小的增加状态变为加速度增大的增加状态,工业固体废弃物的产生量基本一直呈加速度增大的增加趋势;3)整体上,银川市在经济发展的同时,工业"三废"的污染在经过轻微改善后,又都有所加重,经济发展质量呈下降趋势。进一步提出,在工业企业内部、工业企业之间以及工业企业与其他产业之间等各个层面上发展循环经济,以扭转银川市经济发展质量下降的趋势。     

干旱区绿洲型城市经济增长与环境污染关系实证分析——以新疆奎屯市为例

建立典型干旱区绿洲型城市经济增长与主要环境污染指标之间关系的计量模型,选取新疆奎屯市1991-2008年有关经济环境数据,并对其关系进行分析.结果表明:奎屯市经济增长和环境污染之间没有呈现发达国家所描述的"倒U"(EKC)型关系,除了工业废水污染整体上有改善的趋势外,工业废气排放量、工业二氧化硫(SO2)、工业二氧化氮...     

新疆旅游业与经济增长关系浅析——基于协整分析和Granger因果检验

采用现代计量经济学协整分析及其Granger因果检验法,对新疆1990~2006年间旅游业发展与经济增长的关系进行了实证分析。结果发现,经济增长对旅游业的拉动效应存在一个滞后期的问题。而且在短期内,新疆旅游业发展与经济增长不存在相互因果关系,却具有长期的均衡关系,且国际旅游收入对经济的推动作用在时间上超前于国内旅游收入。这一结论在一定程度上为新疆今后的旅游发展政策制定提供一定的科学依据,避免盲目性。     

陕西省碳排放环境库兹涅茨曲线及影响因素——基于1978-2008年的实证分析

通过建立二氧化碳排放的环境库兹涅茨曲线,实证研究了1978-2008年陕西省碳排放与经济增长的关系,计算了碳排放的拐点及时间路径,并选取主要变量研究了碳排放的影响因素。结果表明:陕西省人均碳排放库兹涅茨曲线存在拐点,并且具有"倒U"型曲线的特征,符合环境库兹涅茨曲线假说。碳排放到达拐点大约需要32.5年的时间,即2040年左右到达拐点,此后随着人均收入的增加而碳排放减少,这一点和《中国低碳城市发展绿皮书》预测结果基本一致。技术进步使碳排放减少,经济发展水平、能源强度、产业结构、工业结构重型化和制度因素使碳排放增加。陕西省发展低碳经济的关键是优化产业结构,形成具有低碳特征的环保产业发展模式,发展以知识密集型和技术密集型为主体的低碳产业,提高可再生能源在工业能源消耗中的比重,利用碳汇技术减碳。     

我国产业结构、能源结构和碳排放关系研究

由人类活动所导致的温室气体排放对人类的生存、经济和环境造成了严重影响.随着我国经济的快速发展、工业化和城市化进程的加快、人口的增长,能源需求不断增长,二氧化碳排放量也随之增加,控制温室气体排放面临巨大压力.为了减少温室气体排放,实现我国2020年减排目标和经济的可持续发展,文中分析了我国产业结构、产业内部结构、能源生产...