Are the endemic water beetles of the Iberian Peninsula and the Balearic Islands effectively protected?

One of the most serious environmental problems is the current acceleration in the rate of species extinction associated with human activities, which is occurring particularly rapidly in freshwaters. Here we examine whether endemic water beetles are effectively protected by existing conservation measures in the Iberian Peninsula and the Balearic Islands, a region of high diversity and intense human pressure. We used an exhaustive database for aquatic beetles in the region to address such issues. Firstly, we identify the most threatened endemic taxa using a categorization system to rank species according to their conservation priority or vulnerability. Of the 120 endemic species of water beetles used in the analysis, only two (Ochthebius ferroi and Ochthebius javieri) were identified as being extremely vulnerable, 71 were highly vulnerable and 46 moderately vulnerable, with only a single species identified as having low vulnerability status. Since no Iberian species of aquatic Coleoptera has legal protection, the only conservation measure available for these species is the extent to which they occur in protected areas. Here we identify distributional hotspots for threatened endemic species, and evaluate the extent to which these are already included in the Natura 2000 network in Spain and Portugal. Despite a high degree of concordance between hotspots and Natura 2000 sites, the distribution of four species falls completely outside the network. The analysis also reveals that Natura 2000 fails to protect saline water bodies, despite their high conservation interest and narrow global distribution. The picture revealed here with water beetles is likely to be similar for others groups of freshwater macroinvertebrates, since Coleoptera are known to be good surrogates of aquatic biodiversity in the region. Finally, the degree of protection provided via Natura 2000, and the utility of red lists are discussed.     

Potential distribution modelling, niche characterization and conservation status assessment using GIS tools: a case study of Iberian Copris species

Dung beetle populations, in decline, play a critical ecological role in extensive pasture ecosystems by recycling organic matter; thus the importance of their conservation status. Presence data available for Copris hispanus (L.) and Copris lunaris (L.) (Coleoptera, Scarabaeidae) in Comunidad de Madrid (CM), and BIOMAPPER, a GIS-based tool, was used to model their environmental niches. The so derived potential distributions of both species were used to exemplify the utility of this kind of methodologies in conservation assessment, as well as its capacity to describe the potential sympatry between two or more species. Both species, distributed along a Dry-Mediterranean to Wet-Alpine environmental conditions gradient, overlap in areas of moderate temperatures and mean annual precipitations in the north of CM. Copris are poorly conserved in the existing protected sites network, but protection provided by new sites included in the future Natura 2000 Network will improve the general conservation status of these species in CM.     

Woodland structure,destruction and conservation in the Copperbelt area of Zambia

Between 1937 and 1983 a total of 391 400 ha of woodland, representing 51% of the 768 900 ha in the Zambia Copperbelt, had been deforested for industrial and household woodfuel. This has occurred in spite of a forest reservation programme that increased the area in forest reserves from 31 707 ha in 1942 to 252 715 ha in 1965. Between 1965 and 1980 the reserved forests were reduced to 246 930 ha and since then the area has remained static. The rapidly growing demand for charcoal by the increasing urban population, and the growing problem of acid dust and rain pollution from copper smelters, pose serious threats to forest conservation in this industrial region of Zambia. Current forest conservation is restricted to the establishment of exotic forest plantations and recently deforested areas are left to regenerate naturally.Forest destruction and conservation in the Copperbelt area were studied and the structure of old-growth and coppice woodland stands at 9 and 14 sites, respectively, investigated during 1982–1984. The Copperbelt vegetation is dominated by Brachystegia-Julbernardia woodland. Mean species diversity of 24·40·1 ha⁻¹ in coppice stands was higher than that of 18·9 found in old-growth stands. Stem density in coppice was 3·3 times that observed in old-growth woodlands. The majority of species (over 50%) in both old-growth and coppice were represented by less than 11 stems per sampling plot. Mean basal area at breast height in coppice aged 19–23 years was 14·33 m², which was 95% of the mean basal area of 15·15 m² found in old-growth woodlands.     

Will climate change reduce the efficacy of protected areas for amphibian conservation in Italy?

Amphibians are an important and imperiled component of biodiversity. In this study we analyze the efficacy of Italian reserve network for protecting multiple amphibian species in a climate change scenario, considering both nationally designated areas and Natura 2000 sites. Our approach is based on ensemble niche modeling estimate of potential range shift under two carbon emission scenarios (A1FI and B1) and two dispersal assumptions. The predicted distributions were used to perform gap and irreplaceability analyses. Our findings show that the current Italian reserve network incompletely represents current amphibian diversity and its geographic pattern. The combination of the nationally designated protected areas and the Natura 2000 sites improves current representation of amphibians, but conservation targets based on geographic range extent are achieved for only 40% of species. Under the future scenarios, Natura 2000 sites become a crucial component of the protected areas system. Nonetheless, we predict that climate change decreases for many species the amount of suitable range falling into reserves, regardless of our assumptions about dispersal. We identify some currently unprotected areas that have high irreplaceability scores for species conservation and that maintain their importance under all the future scenarios we considered. We recommend designation of new reserves in these areas to help guarantee long-term amphibian conservation.     

Climate change might drive the invasive tree Robinia pseudacacia into nature reserves and endangered habitats

Static networks of nature reserves disregard the dynamics of species ranges in changing environments. In fact, climate warming has been shown to potentially drive endangered species out of reserves. Less attention has been paid to the related problem that a warmer climate may also foster the invasion of alien species into reserve networks. Here, we use niche-based predictive modelling to assess to which extent the Austrian Natura 2000 network and a number of habitat types of conservation value outside this network might be prone to climate warming driven changes in invasion risk by Robinia pseudacacia L., one of the most problematic alien plants in Europe.Results suggest that the area potentially invaded by R. pseudacacia will increase considerably under a warmer climate. Interestingly, invasion risk will grow at a higher than average rate for most of the studied habitat types but less than the national average in Natura 2000 sites. This result points to a potential bias in legal protection towards high mountain areas which largely will remain too cold for R. pseudacacia. In contrast, the selected habitat types are more frequent in montane or lower lying regions, where R. pseudacacia invasion risk will increase most pronouncedly.We conclude that management plans of nature reserves should incorporate global warming driven changes in invasion risk in a more explicit manner. In case of R. pseudacacia, reducing propagule pressure by avoiding purposeful plantation in the neighbourhood of reserves and endangered habitats is a simple but crucial measure to prevent further invasion under a warmer climate.     

Using habitat models to identify suitable sites for marine protected areas for harbour porpoises (Phocoena phocoena)

The harbour porpoise is a highly mobile species and thus represents a considerable challenge in the context of using marine protected areas (MPAs) for conservation. The shelf waters off the west coast of Scotland have been identified as an area of year-round presence, high density in comparison to surrounding areas, and a high young to adult ratio in summer and are thus a suitable area for exploring the location of possible special areas of conservations (SACs) under the EU Habitats Directive. We carried out dedicated surveys over three summers in the southern Inner Hebrides and used generalised additive models (GAMs) to predict areas of high relative density for harbour porpoises for each year. After compensating for survey effects, static bathymetric and persistent hydrographic variables were used in a step-wise model selection procedure. In all years harbour porpoise distribution was best explained by maximum tidal current, with higher densities predicted in areas of low current, and the same high density areas predicted year-on-year. Perimeter-to-area ratio was used to identify which areas should be considered as a basis for designating SACs for harbour porpoise in this area, to form part of the Natura 2000 network. The method used here combines spatial modelling and perimeter-to-area ratio for selecting protected areas, a methodology which is suitable for the protection of other animal species.     

Habitat selection models for European wildcat conservation

Populations of the European wildcat (Felis silvestris) are only slowly recovering in Central Europe after a severe decline in the last centuries and require specific conservation plans in many areas. However, detailed information on wildcat occurrence and habitat requirements is still scarce and controversial. We present a fine-scale habitat selection model for wildcats based on detailed species and land use information and evaluate its accuracy to predict habitat distribution in new areas. We analysed habitat use within home ranges using single locations of 12 radio-tracked individuals from south western Germany. Several competing models were fitted and compared using generalised linear mixed models (GLMM) and information-theoretic approaches. Radio-tracking data of 9 and 10 wildcats from two distant areas were used to evaluate the models. The selected model predicted habitat associated to close distance to forest, watercourses and meadows and a critical distance to villages, single houses and roads. To predict area suitable for home ranges we superimposed rules derived from home range attributes at a higher level of selection. Predictions from the combination of the fine-scale habitat model and home range rules matched well with more than 2000 wildcat observations of south-western Germany. We discuss the application of the model in wildcat conservation for finding potential reintroduction sites, identifying small isolated populations and aiding in the evaluation of the needs of mitigation and compensation within the scope of the European Habitats Directive.     

Geographic information system (GIS) predictions of past, present habitat distribution and areas for re-introduction of the endangered subtropical rainforest shrub Triunia robusta (Proteaceae) from south-east Queensland Australia

The endangered Australian subtropical rainforest understorey shrub Triunia robusta, is restricted to the south-east Queensland region of Australia. The potential pre-clearing and current distribution of the species was modelled by relating species presence at recorded locations to correlated abiotic and biotic factors, which in combination, were then used as a surrogate for predicting distribution of the species habitat over its known range. From a defined study area of 330,000 ha, output of geographic areas likely to contain T. robusta habitat at three levels of probability were generated for pre-clearing vegetation, and vegetation classified as remnant in 1999. Potential pre-clearing distribution was compared with potential current distribution to ascertain the likely impact of clearing of native vegetation on the extent, pattern, and contiguity of T. robusta habitat. For pre-clearing vegetation, a total area of 45,480 ha was identified as potential T. robusta habitat. For vegetation classified as 1999 remnant, 13,440 ha were identified, representing an overall reduction of 70% in potential habitat for T. robusta. The model was partially validated, with T. robusta found at six new locations. Allowing for errors from spatial mismatching, five of the sites were located within habitat patches predicted by the model. A number of local areas containing high densities of predicted habitat patches were identified to guide searches for unrecorded populations. Strategically located areas linking known populations containing suitable or potentially suitable habitat that may be available for introduction of new populations were identified. The results indicate that the species former centre of range was in lowland areas adjacent to the north arm of the Maroochy River. Clearing and fragmentation of T. robusta habitat is the most likely cause of the apparent decline in distribution and abundance of the species.     

The efficacy of Romania’s protected areas network in conserving biodiversity

Romania’s protected areas network currently covers 19.29% of the national territory, a significant increase from the 4.1% protected prior to 1989. The increase occurred over the past 20 years with the creation of 27 National and Natural Parks, and recently of 382 protected areas as part of the pan-European Natura 2000 network. Considering the recent increase in number and area of protected lands, we investigated two core topics critical to achieving conservation goals: (1) conservation value and (2) resources for conservation. The newly created Natura 2000 sites overlapped 96.19% of the existing protected areas network, generating up to three different protection statuses for some sites. Conservation goals were often unclear, as the focus switched to protecting species and habitats of European-level concern. Despite the fivefold increase in protected area, many ecoregions were poorly represented in the new system. Planning for conservation neither involved the local communities nor utilized principles for spatial prioritization. Over 80% of the species of European conservation concern were included in at least one protected area, but plants and invertebrates were underrepresented. Administrative bodies were generally under-staffed and poorly financed, conditions that were reflected in a poor enforcement and implementation of conservation goals. Overall, Romania shares many conservation concerns with other Eastern and Central European countries. A regional approach to conserving biodiversity based on spatial prioritization, rigorous scientific documentation, and social acceptance is needed for the Natura 2000 network to achieve its goals.     

Minimum viable population and conservation status of the Atlantic Forest spiny rat Trinomys eliasi

A population viability analysis (PVA) was conducted to assess the minimum viable population (MVP) of the Atlantic Forest spiny rat Trinomys eliasi, a species threatened by habitat loss and restricted geographical distribution. Objectives were to suggest quasi-extinction thresholds, estimate minimum areas of suitable habitat (MASH) and MVPs, and compare results with the species’ current status. The computer package VORTEX was used. The model predicted sizes of 200 animals to achieve demographic stability, but buffering declines in genetic variability required populations of 2000 animals. Estimated MASHs were approximately 250 and 2500 ha for demographic and genetic stability, respectively. Mortality rate and mean litter size were the most sensitive parameters to changes in model assumptions. The protection of known populations and the search for extant populations are the first steps in conservation. T. eliasi's issue could help protecting the coastal shrubland ecosystem of Rio de Janeiro state. Observing IUCN's criteria for listing threatened species, it is suggested that T. eliasi should be ranked as vulnerable in red lists.     

Functional conservation units for the endangered Alcon Blue butterfly Maculinea alcon in Belgium (Lepidoptera: Lycaenidae)

To organize and prioritise species-specific conservation efforts, we delineate `functional conservation units' for the threatened Alcon Blue butterfly Maculinea alcon in Belgium. We used detailed distribution data on the butterfly, its host plant and its habitat, present-day population sizes and its mobility and colonization capacity to determine functional conservation units (FCUs) on different spatial scales: FCU-1, i.e., the 12 presently occupied habitat patches plus the area within a range of 500 m surrounding them (the maximum local movement distance, based on mark-release-recapture data), FCU-2, i.e., the areas within a range of 2 km around the occupied habitat patches (the maximum observed colonization capacity) and FCU-3, i.e., potential re-introduction sites (sites where M. alcon went extinct recently). We suggest different management and planning measures for each type of functional conservation unit and discuss translocation and re-introduction as `intensive care' conservation measures for this threatened and sedentary species.     

Quantifying plant species diversity in a Natura 2000 network: Old ideas and new proposals

Assessing the effects of the spatial components on species diversity in a network of protected areas represents an important step for assessing its conservation “capacity”. A clear evaluation on how α-, β-, and γ-diversity are partitioned among and within spatial scales can help to drive manager decisions and provide method for monitoring species diversity. Moving from these concepts, a probabilistic sample of plant species composition was here applied for quantifying plant species diversity within the Sites of Community Importance (SCIs) of the Natura 2000 network in the Siena Province. All analyses were performed separately for all species and those species defined as “focal” (included in regional, national or continental “red” lists). The results indicated that species richness of the SCIs differed from one location to another one independently from the sampling efforts. Diversity partitioning indicated that most of the flora diversity within the network was given by larger-scale β-diversity, i.e. the differences in species composition among SCIs. β-diversity was then decomposed in two components: β_Area (due to the differences in area among SCIs) and β_Replacement (due to the compositional differences across SCIs). β_Area was particularly important for all species, while β_Replacement was the most important factor for focal species. The consequent implications for monitoring and nature conservation strategies are discussed.     

Habitat quality and biodiversity indicator performances of a threatened butterfly versus a multispecies group for wet heathlands in Belgium

We analyzed whether a single species (i.e., the threatened Alcon Blue butterfly Maculinea alcon) was a useful indicator for the quality and area of wet heathlands in Belgium. During a survey of 18 wet Erica tetralix heathlands, we identified 624 species from 20 different taxonomic groups. Sites with the single indicator species M. alcon were significantly richer in typical wet heathland species and in Red List species but did not show significant differences in biotope quality (i.e., the number of different typical wet heathland biotope attributes) than sites without. In addition, we used a multispecies indicator approach including a group of nine species from five different taxonomic groups (two birds, two dragonflies, two butterflies, two vascular plants and one grasshopper). High quality sites (5-9 species from the multispecies indicator group present) tended to have more Red list species than low quality sites (0-4 species from the multispecies indicator group present) but did not expose differences in overall species richness, typical wet heathland species or in biotope quality. The number of species in this umbrella group, however, was positively correlated with both the diversity of typical wet heathland species and with biotope quality. Furthermore, the complementary information of the species in the multispecies indicator group usefully signalled distinctions in biotope area and configuration, vulnerability to fragmentation, eutrophication, desiccation and contained species of different trophic levels; this was not the case for M. alcon as a single indicator species. We discuss the use of a single indicator and of a multispecies group as conservation umbrella and advocate a much wider use of combined knowledge from different taxonomic groups in conservation planning and evaluation.     

Historical influences on the vegetation and soils of the Martha’s Vineyard, Massachusetts coastal sandplain: Implications for conservation and restoration

Both disturbance history and previous land use influence present-day vegetation and soils. These influences can have important implications for conservation of plant communities if former disturbance and land use change species abundances, increase colonization of nonnative plant species or if they alter soil characteristics in ways that make them less suitable for species of conservation interest. We compared the plant species composition, the proportion of native and nonnative plant species, and soil biogeochemical characteristics across seven dominant land use and vegetation cover types on the outwash sandplain of Martha’s Vineyard that differed in previous soil tillage, dominant overstory vegetation and history of recent prescribed fire. The outwash sandplain supports many native plant species adapted to dry, low nutrient conditions and maintenance of native species is a management concern. There was broad overlap in the plant species composition among pine (Pinus resinosa, P. strobus) plantations on untilled soils, pine plantations on formerly tilled soils, scrub oak (Quercus ilicifolia) shrublands, tree oak (Q. velutina, Q. alba) woodlands, burned tree oak woodlands, and sandplain grasslands. All of these land cover categories contained few nonnative species. In contrast, agricultural grasslands had high richness and cover of nonnative plants. Soil characteristics were also similar among all of the woodland, shrubland and grassland land cover categories, but soils in agricultural grasslands had higher pH, extractable Ca²⁺ and Mg²⁺ in mineral soils and higher rates of net nitrification. The similarity of soils and significant overlap in vegetation across pine plantations, scrub oak shrublands, oak woodlands and sandplain grasslands suggests that the history of land use, current vegetation and soil characteristics do not pose a major barrier to management strategies that would involve conversion among any of these vegetation types. The current presence of high cover of nonnative species and nutrient-enriched soils in agricultural grasslands, however, may pose a barrier to expansion of sandplain grasslands or shrublands on these former agricultural lands if native species are not able to outcompete nonnative species in these anthropogenically-enriched sites.     

Predictive modelling and ground validation of the spatial distribution of the New Zealand long-tailed bat (Chalinolobus tuberculatus)

The use of predictive models is continually increasing, but few models are subsequently field-checked and evaluated. This study evaluates the statistical strength and usefulness for conservation purposes of a predictive habitat use model developed for Chalinolobus tuberculatus, a threatened microchiropteran bat species found in the temperate rainforests of New Zealand. The relationship between various environmental variables and the presence/absence of the species was investigated using generalised linear modelling. The model developed was coupled with GIS data to develop maps of predicted occurrence within the West Coast region of New Zealand’s South Island. It was found that distance to forest boundary, slope, presence of Nothofagus, general land cover, variability in mean annual solar radiation, and mean ambient winter minimum temperature were significantly associated with the occurrence of the species. Evaluation of the statistical strength of the distribution model with independent data of species’ occurrence collected at 152 sites found that the C. tuberculatus model showed a moderate ability to predict both species presence and absence (τ(b) coefficient = 0.37). The field detection rate (0.45) using this model was significantly higher than that of historical surveys (0.12). The value of the species habitat model and the need to evaluate its utility in the development of conservation strategies is discussed.     

Modelling habitat and spatial distribution of an endangered longhorn beetle - A case study for saproxylic insect conservation

Saproxylic insects are characterised by their exceptional diversity and high proportion of threatened species. No recent studies have demonstrated the validity of habitat suitability analysis for scientifically based habitat management for these species. We studied the habitat requirements of the endangered longhorn beetle Cerambyx cerdo, a species with a supposed keystone function for the saproxylic insect community living on oaks. We used species distribution modelling based on datasets from Central Europe to understand the species-habitat relationships and to find the environmental variables responsible for habitat selection of C. cerdo. Our results show that the most important parameters, insolation, presence of oak sap, bark depth and the distance from the next colonised tree, are able to predict the presence of C. cerdo very well. A spatial validation procedure revealed very similar predictive power, indicating the general validity of our model. Tree-level parameters were shown to have a stronger effect on the occurrence probability than landscape-level predictors. To improve the tree-level conditions (e.g. insolation on the trunk) habitat management in the form of semi-open pasture landscapes is recommended from which many other taxa will also draw considerable benefit. The provision of such conditions over decades is the essential key in the conservation of this longhorn beetle species. The success of the European network of conservation areas “Natura 2000” heavily depends on broad biological knowledge of the designated protected species. The present paper shows that species distribution models can give valuable contributions for conservation in saproxylic insects.     

Are threatened lichen species well-protected in Spain? Effectiveness of a protected areas network

Several modelling species distribution studies have been developed, in last years, though mainly applied in higher plants, mammals or birds. However, little is known about overlooked taxa like lichens. We have evaluated the potential distribution of eleven threatened lichens in Spain and how the Natura 2000 network contributes to protect them. To overcome difficulties related to the lack of systematic surveys in those poorly known species we used only-presence data by means of ENFA (ecological-niche factor analysis). Then, we used ENFA to model the environmental niche of each species and to obtain the habitat suitability maps. In order to test the effectiveness of the Natura 2000 network, the habitat high suitability map for all species was overlapped with the network map. Our results show that all species considered present habitats requirements different from the average conditions of Spain, although clear differences exist among the species. That is, Peltigera elisabethae shows an extremely narrow niche, whereas Peltigera neckeri presents the highest ecological breadth. High temperature and long drought periods are the variables which restrict more the occurrence of these species. So, all species appear mainly confined to well-conserved forest and mountain ranges where these variables are dimmed. This mainly occurs in the oceanic northern fringe and in the higher Mediterranean mountains. In relation to the success of the Natura 2000 network, our results show that the capability of this network to protect key habitats for these species seem to be guarantied, probably because most reserves appear in mountainous areas in Spain. Evaluation of reserve network effectiveness needs the use of this type of gap analysis and especially the inclusion of ‘not charismatic’ organisms such as lichens.     

Habitat-based conservation priorities for carabid beetles within the Picos de Europa National Park, northern Spain

Quick biodiversity studies on poorly studied taxa and areas are increasingly popular for setting conservation priorities over a wide range of spatial scales. However, the implementation of such studies is complicated by the variable extent to which the different criteria used in prioritisation are correlated to each other. Using methods of constrained ordination, we examined the species-habitat relationships of carabid beetles based on ground beetle assemblages from 22 sites in the Picos de Europa National Park, northern Spain. We found characteristic species assemblages for subalpine meadows, Genista shrublands, and pastures, whereas mown meadows, heathlands, beech and riparian woodlands were occupied by more habitat generalist species. Species associated with subalpine meadows and Genista shrublands tended to be mostly brachypterous and to have geographic ranges restricted to northern Spain. In contrast, we found no relationship between the degree of species' association with pastures and geographic range-wing size type. Although the species richness was higher in riparian woodlands and mown meadows, we suggest a higher conservation value for subalpine meadows and Genista shrublands across the landscape because they sustain characteristic assemblages dominated by species with restricted ranges and reduced powers of dispersal. Our study suggests that preserving areas in the landscape supporting higher biodiversity will not necessarily preserve those species potentially more susceptible to habitat loss and fragmentation. It also supports the feasibility of biodiversity studies based on multivariate techniques for setting conservation priorities over complex landscapes.     

Recent decline and potential distribution in the last remnant area of the microendemic Mexican axolotl (Ambystoma mexicanum)

Native populations of the axolotl (Ambystoma mexicanum), a microendemic salamander from Central Mexico, have seen alarming decline in the last decades owing to habitat loss caused by urban growth. The last remnant of its distribution is in a highly heterogeneous urban-rural water system in the Xochimilco region, at the southern edge of Mexico City. We developed a model of the species local distribution based on its ecological niche, using occurrence data and ad hoc limnetic variables via the Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Production (GARP), to identify suitable areas for the species and prioritize conservation efforts. Results indicated that potential distribution of the axolotl in Xochimilco is limited to 11 sites in six reduced, isolated, and scattered areas, located mostly in zones where traditional agriculture (chinampas) is the primary land use. Recent surveys found only a single organism in the whole study region, in one of the predicted sites, suggesting a critical situation for the long-term survival of the axolotl in the wild, and demanding urgent actions toward habitat and population restoration. This study also illustrates the utility of niche modeling approaches for aquatic systems at a fine scale.     

Development and evaluation of predictive habitat models to assist the conservation planning of a threatened lucanid beetle, Hoplogonus simsoni, in north-east Tasmania

The use of predictive habitat distribution models by land managers in the conservation management of threatened species is increasing. Few models, however, are subsequently field-checked and evaluated. This study evaluates the statistical strength and usefulness for conservation purposes of three predictive habitat models developed for a threatened stag beetle, Hoplogonus simsoni, found in the wet eucalypt forests and mixed/rainforests of north-east Tasmania. The relationship between various environmental variables for which spatial (GIS) information was available and the density, frequency of occurrence and presence/absence of the species was investigated using generalised linear modelling. Models developed were coupled with the GIS data to develop maps of predicted occurrence within the species’ range, grouped into categories of habitat quality. The models found that altitude, aspect, slope, distance to nearest stream and overstorey tree height were significantly associated with the occurrence of the species. Evaluation of the statistical strength of the models with independent data of species’ occurrence collected at 95 sites found that the density model performed poorly with little correlation between predicted and observed densities of the species. The frequency of occurrence model, however, showed a moderate ability to predict both species’ abundance and presence/absence. The presence/absence model had a similar discriminatory ability in predicting presence or absence of H. simsoni, but also showed some potential as an indirect predictor of species’ abundance. Assuming a correlation between relative abundance and habitat quality, the frequency of occurrence predictive model appeared to be the better and more direct discriminator of high quality habitat relative to the other models. The value of species’ habitat models and the need to evaluate their utility in the development of conservation strategies are discussed.