Estimating population size in the subdesert mesite (Monias benschi): new methods and implications for conservation

The subdesert mesite, a terrestrial non-passerine bird endemic to the Mikea Forest of southwest Madagascar, is currently classified as globally threatened (category: Vulnerable). However, accurate assessment of threat in accordance with the IUCN Red List criteria (A, B and C) requires data on effective population size, area of habitat occupied and rate of decline, none of which is available for this species. Here we present the first empirical estimates of its population size using five complementary methods, three incorporating data on territory size and two using data gathered during call-playback surveys conducted throughout its entire global range. Estimates vary from 98,000 to 152,000 individuals, with the most reliable possibly being that generated by distance sampling (115,000). This figure is more than an order of magnitude greater than the only published estimate of <10,000 individuals. By analysing data on forest cover change, we estimate the population of the subdesert mesite to have declined by, at most, 10% in three generations. Although the rate of deforestation in 1994-1999 is double that calculated for 1962-1994, it is deemed unlikely that the population will decline by 20% over the next three generations. As such the species fails to meet criterion A. Although the subdesert mesite's range and area of occupancy are small, they are not fragmented and do not comprise fewer than 10 locations. Consequently, this species does not meet criterion B. Further, the species fails to meet criterion C, for which a maximum of 10,000 mature adults is required. According to IUCN (2000 Red List of Threatened Species) this species should therefore be downlisted in status. We discuss why it still warrants conservation attention and suggest the need for modifications to the criteria thresholds in relation to basic information about the ecology and taxonomic distinctness of species.     

How similar are national red lists and the IUCN Red List?

For more than four decades the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) has been assessing the global threat status for species and publishing the results in the periodically updated IUCN Red List of threatened species. Additionally, numerous countries have published national lists of threatened species, often based on IUCN criteria and guidelines for application of IUCN Red List criteria at regional levels. To assess how similar, or how different, national red lists are from the global red list, we compared threatened species lists of four countries (Brazil, Colombia, China, and the Philippines) with the 2008 IUCN Red List. We found notable differences falling into three categories: (1) a number of species (an average of 20% of the species pool considered in each of the four countries) have been listed nationally as threatened, but have yet to be globally assessed by IUCN, (2) some species (14% average) are considered globally threatened by IUCN, but are not listed nationally, and (3) a handful of species (2% average) are not considered threatened by IUCN, but are nationally threatened. However, for most species, the threat assessments concur. In other words, most species are either considered threatened both nationally and globally, or else not considered globally threatened and not listed nationally. Such possible comparison between national red lists and IUCN’s Red List is a high priority both for IUCN and for national red listing agencies.     

Applying IUCN criteria to invertebrates: How red is the Red List of European butterflies?

The IUCN is the leading authority on assessing species’ extinction risks worldwide and introduced the use of quantitative criteria for the compilation of Red Lists of threatened species. Recently, we assessed the threat status of the 483 European butterfly species, using semi-quantitative data on changes in distribution and in population sizes provided by national butterfly experts. We corrected distribution trends for the observation that coarse-scale grid cells underestimate actual population trends by 35%. To account for uncertainty, we included a 5% error margin on the distribution and population trends provided. The new Red List of European butterflies determined one species as Regionally Extinct, 37 species as threatened (Critically Endangered, Endangered or Vulnerable) and a further 44 as Near Threatened. The use of semi-quantitative data on distribution and population trends permitted us to use IUCN criteria to compile a scientifically underpinned Red List of butterflies in Europe. However, a comparison of detailed monitoring data for some grassland species showed that coarse-scale grid cell data and population trends strongly underestimate extinction risks, and the list should be taken as a conservative estimate of threat. Finally, combining the new Red List status with the data provided by the national butterfly experts, allowed us to determine simple criteria to delineate conservation priorities for butterflies in Europe, so called SPecies of European conservation Concern (SPEC’s). Using European butterflies, our approach illustrated how Red Listing can be performed when data are incomplete for some IUCN criteria or vary strongly among countries.     

Gaps in the protected area network for threatened Afrotropical birds

Protected areas established for wildlife conservation (IUCN category I-VI protected areas) or for forest and watershed conservation (forest reserves) across mainland sub-Saharan Africa have high biodiversity values. However, they fail to cover over half of the 106 threatened bird species, and thus leave these vulnerable to extinction. An analysis of Red List bird species that are not represented in existing reserves indicates gaps in the current network of protected areas, namely: Mt. Cameroon-Bamenda highlands (Cameroon), the Angolan scarp (Angola), the Drakensberg Highlands (South Africa), the Highveld (South Africa), the Eastern Arc Mountains (Tanzania), the eastern African coastal forest mosaic (Kenya and Tanzania), the Albertine Rift (Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, eastern Democratic Republic of Congo and western Tanzania), and the Ethiopian Highlands. The addition of Forest Reserves to the existing protected areas closes some of the reservation gaps for threatened birds in Africa. We suggest that these Forest Reserves should be included within official lists of protected areas, and that National forestry authorities be encouraged to manage these areas. Publication of scientific articles showing the conservation value of Forest Reserves is needed to raise local and international support and funding.     

Conservation implications of deforestation across an elevational gradient in the Eastern Arc Mountains, Tanzania

Deforestation is a major threat to the conservation of biodiversity, especially within global centers of endemism for plants and animals. Elevation, the major environmental gradient in mountain regions of the world, produces a rapid turnover of species, where some species may exist only in narrow elevational ranges. We use newly compiled datasets to assess the conservation impact of deforestation on threatened trees across an elevational gradient within the Eastern Arc Mountains of Tanzania. The Eastern Arc has suffered an estimated 80% total loss in historical forest area and has lost 25% of forest area since 1955. Forest loss has not been even across all elevations. The upper montane zone (>1800 m) has lost 52% of its paleoecological forest area, 6% since 1955. Conversely, the submontane habitat (800–1200 m) has lost close to 93% of its paleoecological extent, 57% since 1955. A list of 123 narrowly endemic Tanzanian Eastern Arc tree taxa with defined and restricted elevational ranges was compiled and analyzed in regard to mountain block locations, elevational range, and area of forest within each 100 m elevational band. Half of these taxa have lost more than 90% of paleoecological forest habitat in their elevational range. When elevational range is considered, 98 (80%) of these endemic forest trees should have their level of extinction threat elevated on the IUCN Red List. Conservation efforts in montane hotspots need to consider the extent of habitat changes both within and across elevations and target conservation and restoration efforts throughout these ecosystems’ entire elevational ranges.     

Earthworm (Lumbricidae) diversity in the Central Balkans: An evaluation of their conservation status

In this paper we summarize the current knowledge on earthworm diversity in the central part of the Balkans, in the State of Serbia. Up to now, 71 species and 8 subspecies, belonging to 18 genera, are known from investigated territory. Our aim was to produce a single priority list for earthworm conservation, particularly as the Balkan countries did not have their own Red Lists for earthworms and none of the species had a legally protected status. The list underlines the diversity of earthworms, zoogeographical position as well as category of threat. The analysis based on the IUCN (2001) Red List Categories shows that 17 of 79 taxa are Critically Endangered (5 species are serious Critically Endangered, but 12 species are only suspect for the Critically Endangered category), 9 species are Endangered and 14 species are Vulnerable. Serious candidates for their inclusion in CR category within the IUCN (2001) Red List are: Cernosvitovia biserialis, Dendrobaena kozuvensis, Lumbricus improvisus, Serbiona kosowensis montenegrina and Serbiona serbica. Of all registered earthworms, 34 taxa (43.1%) were identified only as endemic species. Unfortunately, most of the high-priority species are endemic (23 taxa). The position of the Central Balkans contributes to the great biodiversity of earthworms on its territory, but the fact that nearly 36% of its lumbricids are threatened is a strong signal that action is required.     

Estimating occupancy of a data deficient mammalian species living in tropical rainforests: Sun bears in the Kerinci Seblat region, Sumatra

Tropical mammals represent some of the most threatened species, but also the least known because they tend to be difficult to study. To objectively evaluate the conservation status of these species, standardized methods are urgently required. The sun bear Helarctos malayanus is a case in point: it is cryptic, difficult to detect and consequently classified on the IUCN Red List as Data Deficient, and the highest priority for bear conservation research. In this study, we apply a detection/non-detection sampling technique using camera trap data with environmental covariates to estimate sun bear occupancy from three tropical forest study areas with different levels of degradation and protection status in Sumatra. Sun bear detections, and encounter rates, were highest in one of the primary forest study areas, but sun bear occupancy was highest in the degraded forest study area. Whilst, sun bears were recorded at a greater proportion of camera placements in degraded forest, these records were often on only one occasion at each placement, which greatly increased the final occupancy estimate. Primary forests with their large fruiting trees undoubtedly represent good sun bear habitat, but our results indicate that degraded forest can also represent important habitat. These forests should therefore not be considered as having limited conservation value and assigned to other uses, such as oil palm production, as has previously happened in Sumatra. Estimating occupancy between years will yield information on the population trends of sun bears and other tropical mammals, which can be used to provide more reliable conservation assessments.     

Towards a ‘red list’ for crop plant species

An attempt is made toward the application of IUCN criteria and Red List Categories to agricultural and horticultural plants (excluding ornamentals). The main sources for this study were Mansfeld’s Encyclopedia (2001) and the IUCN Red List of threatened plants (2001). About 200 threatened cultivated plants are considered and presented in the respective lists, among them completely extinct crop plants such as Anacyclus officinarum and Bromus mango. The information available about neglected and underutilized crop plants still lags behind that about wild plants, especially at the species level, and more studies are required. On the other hand studies of major crops at the infraspecific level, are very advanced and can serve as models for investigating the wild ones.     

Prioritisation of conservation areas in the Western Ghats, India

Areas of high conservation value were identified in the Western Ghats using a systematic conservation planning approach. Surrogates were chosen and assessed for effectiveness on the basis of spatial congruence using Pearson’s correlations and Mantel’s tests. The surrogates were, threatened and endemic plant and vertebrate species, unfragmented forest areas, dry forests, sub-regionally rare vegetation types, and a remotely sensed surrogate for unique evergreen ecosystems. At the scale of this analysis, amphibian richness was most highly correlated with overall threatened and endemic species richness, whereas mammals, especially wide-ranging species, were better at capturing overall animal and habitat diversity. There was a significant relationship between a remote sensing based habitat surrogate and endemic tree diversity and composition. None of the taxa or habitats served as a complete surrogate for the others. Sites were prioritised on the basis of their irreplaceability value using all five surrogates. Two alternative reserve networks are presented, one with minimal representation of surrogates, and the second with 3 occurrences of each species and 25% of each habitat type. These networks cover 8% and 29% of the region respectively. Seventy percent of the completely irreplaceable sites are outside the current protected area network. While the existing protected area network meets the minimal representation target for 88% of the species chosen in this study and all of the habitat surrogates, it is not representative with regard to amphibians, endemic tree species and small mammals. Much of the prioritised unprotected area is under reserve forests and can thus be incorporated into a wider network of conservation areas.     

Freshwater crabs and the biodiversity crisis: Importance, threats, status, and conservation challenges

Freshwater ecosystems in the tropics host a diverse endemic fauna including freshwater crabs, but the rapid loss and deterioration of habitat means that many species are now under imminent threat. Studies on freshwater fish and amphibians suggest a third to half of the species in some tropical freshwaters is either extinct or endangered, but the status of the freshwater crabs is not known. Freshwater crabs, with 1280 species, represent one-fifth of all the World’s brachyurans. We therefore undertook a comprehensive IUCN Red List assessment of the freshwater crabs, which was the first time that such a study had been attempted on a global scale for any group of freshwater invertebrates. The conservation status of all known species from the Americas, Africa, Europe, Asia, and Australasia revealed unexpectedly high threat levels. Here we show that about one-sixth of all freshwater crab species have an elevated risk of extinction, only one-third are not at-risk, and although none are actually extinct, almost half are too poorly known to assess. Out of 122 countries that have populations of freshwater crabs, 43 have species in need of protection. The majority of threatened species are restricted-range semi-terrestrial endemics living in habitats subjected to deforestation, alteration of drainage patterns, and pollution. This is illustrated with a case study of one such species found in Singapore. This underlines the need to prioritize and develop conservation measures before species decline to levels from which they cannot recover. The proportion of freshwater crabs threatened with extinction is equal to that of reef-building corals, and exceeds that of all other groups that have been assessed except for amphibians. These results represent a baseline that can be used to design strategies to save the World’s threatened freshwater crab species.     

Applying IUCN Red List criteria at a small regional level: A test case with butterflies in Flanders (north Belgium)

Red Lists are used to assess the extinction risk of species based on quantitative IUCN criteria. For the compilation of a new Red List of butterflies in Flanders (north Belgium), we collated ca 800,000 distribution records and applied the IUCN Red List criteria to this small region (ca 135,00 km²). We also explored the effect of spatial resolution on the outcome of the Red List assessment by alternatively using 1 × 1 km² and 5 × 5 km² grid cells for geographic range size and trend calculations. We determined conservation hot spots in Flanders based on the Red List status of the species composition in each grid cell. The new Red List classified 20 butterflies (out of 68 resident species) as Regionally Extinct, six as Critically Endangered, five as Endangered, seven as Vulnerable and seven as Near Threatened. The remaining 23 species were classified as Least Concern. Using coarse instead of fine grain grid cells would have classified ten species in a lower Red List category. Compared with the previous Red List, nine species were classified in a lower and 12 in a higher threat category. In total, 218 1 × 1 km² grid cells were considered as (very) high butterfly conservation priority sites. The application of the new IUCN criteria in a small region such as Flanders resulted in a Red List that offered challenging opportunities for the conservation of butterflies in particular and biodiversity in general.     

Changes in the conservation status of Australian birds resulting from differences in taxonomy, knowledge and the definitions of threat

When the conservation status of Australian bird taxa in 1992 was retrospectively reassessed in 2000, the status of nearly 70% had to be changed. About 20% of the differences could be attributed to changes in the predictions of extinction probability. Most differences arose from refinement of ICUN Red List Categories and Criteria. Research showed that some populations were more threatened than realised and a few changes resulted from taxonomic revision. Funds might have been distributed differently had the adjusted analysis been available in 1992. Nevertheless, comparisons between either the original or the revised 1992 list and the 2000 list demonstrate degeneration in overall status of threatened birds in Australia. It is concluded that trends in conservation status are a valid long-term measure of the risk of biodiversity loss. Stabilisation of IUCN Red List definitions should mean that an increasing proportion of the status flux should be attributable to real changes in extinction probability.     

Data Deficient birds on the IUCN Red List: What don’t we know and why does it matter?

Species are classified as Data Deficient on the IUCN Red List if there is inadequate information to make an assessment of their extinction risk based on distribution and/or population status. Data Deficient is probably the most controversial and misunderstood of IUCN Red List categories. All 63 globally Data Deficient bird species lack sufficient information on population size, trends, distribution and/or threats to assess them against the Red List criteria. For 10 species (16%) the paucity of data may be a consequence of taxonomic uncertainty. Three species are known only from specimens of uncertain geographic provenance. Since 1988, 58 Data Deficient birds have been recategorised, mainly as Near Threatened (48%) or Least Concern (16%). We speculate that of the remaining Data Deficient birds, just 14% may prove to be threatened. Proportionately fewer birds (0.6%) are listed as Data Deficient as compared with mammals (15%), amphibians (25%), corals (17%), conifers (4%) and cycads (6%), because birds are better known and perhaps because for birds greater use is made of contextual information (e.g. condition of habitats, likely ecology/habitat preferences and trends in known threatening processes) to assign alternative categories where this is plausible and precautionary. Ensuring consistency between taxonomic groups is essential for the credibility of the IUCN Red List. For non-avian taxa, the higher proportions of Data Deficient species introduces greater uncertainty in estimates of overall extinction risk, but the results from birds hint that the real values may fall at the lower end of these estimates. Data Deficient species should be treated precautionarily in terms of protection and assessing environmental impacts, and regarded as urgent priorities for surveys and research to elucidate their true status. Greater attention should also be given to documenting data quality and uncertainty for Red List assessments of threatened and non-threatened species.     

A review of the conservation threats to carnivorous plants

Over half of the carnivorous plant species assessed by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) are listed as threatened (i.e. vulnerable, endangered, or critically endangered), but the threats to carnivorous plants have not previously been quantified systematically. In this review, we quantify the conservation threats to carnivorous plant taxa worldwide. Using the IUCN Red List, a literature search of Web of Knowledge, and the National Red Lists database, we collected data on the threats to 48 species of carnivorous plants from nine genera. The most common threat was habitat loss from agriculture, followed by the collection of wild plants, pollution, and natural systems modifications. A principal coordinate analysis revealed that species within a genus often faced similar threats, and an indicator species analysis found positive associations among species in the genus Sarracenia and agricultural activities, over-collection, invasive species, and pollution. Future research should further quantify the effects of pollution on carnivorous plants, and more thoroughly examine the potential role of carnivorous plants as indicator species for wetland health. More research is also needed to quantify the extinction risk for many carnivorous plants, as presently only around 17% of species have been assessed by the IUCN. Ensuring the conservation of carnivorous plants will help maintain the important ecosystem services they provide and prevent secondary extinctions of specialist species that rely on them.     

Relationship between distributions of threatened plants and protected areas in Britain

The establishment and maintenance of a system of protected areas is central to regional and global strategies for the conservation of biodiversity. The current global trend towards human population growth and widespread environmental degradation means that such areas are becoming increasingly isolated in fragmented habitat islands. In regions in which this process is well advanced a high proportion of species are thus predicted to have become restricted to protected areas. Here using uniquely detailed datasets for Britain, a region with close to the global level of percentage coverage by statutory protected areas, we determine the extent of restriction of Red List vascular plant species of conservation concern to these areas. On the basis of currently known distributions, overall our results strongly support the importance of a dual conservation strategy in Britain, in which protected areas are maintained with particular reference to those biodiversity features (such as many threatened plant species) that are highly dependent on them, and in which components of the wider landscape are also managed in such a way as to promote the abundance and distribution of such features with particular reference to those which are unlikely to persist in protected areas alone.     

The impacts of forest clearance on lizard, small mammal and bird communities in the arid spiny forest, southern Madagascar

Madagascar is a global biodiversity hotspot threatened by forest loss, degradation and fragmentation, all of which are detrimental to the future survival of forest-dwelling organisms. For conservation purposes it is essential to determine how species respond to habitat disturbance, specifically deforestation. In this study we investigated the impacts of deforestation on three vertebrate communities, lizards, small mammals and birds, in an area of spiny forest subjected to anthropogenic forest clearance. Spiny forest has high levels of endemism, but conservation in this unique ecosystem is hindered by the lack of research. We undertook standardised trapping, time-constrained and timed species searches to assess species richness, species abundance and community composition of lizards, small mammals and birds in six areas of ‘forest’ and six ‘cleared’ areas. From surveys and opportunistic sightings we recorded a total of 70 species of birds, 14 species of mammals and 38 species of reptiles and amphibians. We found forest clearing to have a negative effect on species richness and community structure of all groups and identified loss of canopy cover as a driving factor behind this. However, the response and sensitivity to clearing varied between groups and species. Lizards (50%) and small mammals (40%) had the greatest decline in species richness in response to clearing as compared to birds (26%), although birds showed the greatest shift in community structure. The community in cleared areas contained more generalist and introduced species that have wider geographic ranges and habitat preferences, than those unique to the spiny forest. We found the first suite of species to suffer from forest clearance were those of high conservation priority due to their restricted geographic range. Our findings are discussed in relation to future spiny forest conservation and management.     

Global population decline of the Great Slaty Woodpecker (Mulleripicus pulverulentus)

The Great Slaty Woodpecker (Mulleripicus pulverulentus) of South and Southeast Asia, the third largest woodpecker species in the world, is currently in the IUCN Red List category of Least Concern. This woodpecker appears associated with old-growth forests, and the rapid reductions in forest cover and old-growth area in Southeast Asia urged examination of its global population trends. We assessed population densities, tree diameter use by the woodpecker, and logging disturbance at 21 transects in four regions across the range of the species: west Borneo, Lingga Island (Riau Archipelago, Indonesia), Tenasserim (Myanmar), and west-central Myanmar. Transect survey effort was 937 km. We assessed rates of deforestation and loss of old-growth forest in the range of the species from expert review reports. By combining population density and forest cover data sets we calculated the global population trend of the species. We found a preference for large diameter trees by foraging and nesting Great Slaty Woodpeckers, and a reduction of the frequency of such trees in logged forests. Across the four study regions, between old-growth forests and logged forests, densities of Great Slaty Woodpeckers were reduced by 80-94%. Although Great Slaty Woodpeckers occur in 15 countries, ca. 70% of the global population occurs in just four countries (Myanmar, Indonesia, Cambodia, and Malaysia), three of which have high annual rates of deforestation and loss of old-growth forest. Our population calculations show that over the past century at least 90% of the global population of the Great Slaty Woodpecker has been lost. At present 26,000-550,000 individuals remain. The current global decline rate of ca. 59% ± SD 17% in three generations justifies IUCN Vulnerable or Endangered status. Contributing factors to the steep decline rate of the species are a long generation time of 5.9-8.2 years and an association with old-growth, lower elevation forests. The Great Slaty Woodpecker case adds an Asian example to a global pattern of specialized woodpeckers that are associated with old or natural forests.     

The biological importance of the Eastern Arc Mountains of Tanzania and Kenya

The Eastern Arc Mountains are renown in Africa for high concentrations of endemic species of animals and plants. Thirteen separate mountain blocks comprise the Eastern Arc, supporting around 3300 km² of sub-montane, montane and upper montane forest, less than 30% of the estimated original forested area. At least 96 vertebrate species are endemic, split as follows: 10 mammal, 19 bird, 29 reptile and 38 amphibian species. This includes four endemic or nearly endemic species of primate - the Sanje Mangabey, the Iringa Red Colobus, the Mountain Galago and the new Kipunji monkey that forms its own monotypic genus. A further 71 vertebrate species are near-endemic. At least 800 vascular plant species are endemic, almost 10% of these being trees. These endemics include the majority of the species of African violet - Saintpaulia, a well-known flowering plant in Western households. An additional 32 species of bryophytes are also endemic. Many hundreds of invertebrates are also likely to be endemic, with data for butterflies, millipedes and dragonflies indicating potential trends in importance. Seventy-one of the endemic or near-endemic vertebrates are threatened by extinction (8 critical, 27 endangered, 36 vulnerable), with an additional seven wide ranging threatened species. Hundreds of plant species are also threatened. Most Eastern Arc endemics are closed-forest specialists and comprise taxa with an ancient history and those of more recent origin, including some possessing ancient affinities with taxa from West Africa, Madagascar, and even South America and Southeast Asia. Mountain block prioritisation for biodiversity conservation shows that Udzungwas, East Usambaras and Ulugurus are the most important blocks, with other important blocks being the Ngurus and West Usambaras. Rankings are correlated closely with the area of remaining forest. Most of the remaining forest is found within nearly 150 Government Forest Reserves, with 106 of these managed nationally for water catchment, biodiversity and soil conservation and where forest exploitation is not allowed. Outside these areas most forest has been cleared, except in small village burial/sacred sites, a few Village Forest Reserves, and inaccessible areas. In most Eastern Arc Mountains the local populations have not encroached beyond the reserve boundaries to develop farms, but forest resources within the boundaries are used for fuel and building materials and some forests are heavily degraded. Fire is also a problem as it enters and destroys forests during the dry seasons. The future of the biodiversity on the Eastern Arc Mountains is closely tied to management policies and capacity of the Tanzania Forestry and Beekeeping Division, Tanzania National Parks Authority, and Kenya Forest Department. Supporting these agencies in their mandated job is an essential conservation investment over the longer term.     

Grid-based monitoring methods for detecting population declines: Sensitivity to spatial scale and consequences of scale correction

A decrease in the area of occupancy of a species is often criterion by which a species is classified as threatened (i.e. IUCN Red List). However, it is unclear how to accurately measure change in area of occupancy. Area of occupancy is a measure of distribution and the spatial scale at which the distribution is measured will affect the ability to detect a decline. To overcome errors introduced by measuring distribution at different spatial scales, scale correction methods are often applied. It is known that scale correction reliably estimates area of occupancy; however, its suitability to estimate trends in area of occupancy has not been assessed. We investigate the effect of spatial scale and implementation of scale correction when estimating two different forms of decline in area of occupancy: spatially correlated and spatially uncorrelated declines. We explore these issues using simulations of three declining species and a grid-based monitoring method designed to detect the declines. Our results suggest that current grid-based methods are inadequate for detecting uncorrelated local extinctions, even if the total decline is substantial (e.g. 65% of the original range). We demonstrate that scale correction will lead to misleading conclusions in some situations. We suggest an alternative survey method to accurately estimate changes in area of occupancy over time. We provide guidelines for designing grid surveys to measure changes in area of occupancy to assess a species threat status using the IUCN Red List criterion.     

An approach for regional threat assessment under IUCN Red List criteria that is robust to uncertainty: The Fiordland bottlenose dolphins are critically endangered

Numerous globally abundant species are exposed to human impacts that threaten the viability of regional populations. Assessing and characterising the risks faced by these populations can have significant implications for biodiversity conservation, given the ecological importance of many such species. To address these risks, the IUCN is starting to conduct assessments of regional populations in addition to species-level assessments of conservation status. Here, we demonstrate a threat assessment process that is robust to uncertainty, applying the IUCN criteria to a regional population of bottlenose dolphins in Fiordland, New Zealand. We compiled available population-specific information to assess the population under the five Red List criteria. We estimated there were 205 Fiordland bottlenose dolphins (CV = 3.5%), using current estimates of abundance for two sub-populations and stochastic modelling of an earlier estimate for the third sub-population. Population trajectory and extinction risk were assessed using stochastic age-structured Leslie matrix population models. The majority of model runs met the criteria for classification as critically endangered (C1: 67.6% of runs) given the number of mature individuals (123; CV = 6.7%) and the predicted rate of population decline (average decline: 31.4% over one generation). The evidence of isolation of the population confirms this was an appropriate regional classification. This approach provided an assessment that was robust to uncertainty.