Modelling the effect of El Niño on the persistence of small populations: The Galápagos penguin as a case study

Small populations are vulnerable to long-term declines, even where short-term censuses indicate increasing trends in numbers. Census data for the Galápagos penguin (Spheniscus mendiculus) collected between 1970 and 2004 provide evidence that despite year-to-year population increases detected in most of the annual censuses, the strong El Niño events of 1982-83 and 1997-98 were followed by population declines of more than 60% from which the species has yet to recover. Such large declines raise concerns about the future viability of the species because the frequency and severity of El Niño events are predicted to increase. We used the simulation software VORTEX to evaluate the potential effects of El Niño on the risk of extinction of the Galápagos penguin population and its four constituent subpopulations. Weak and strong El Niño events were treated as catastrophes, with varying frequencies, which simulated past, current and future effects on the penguin population. The “Current El Niño” scenario, based on the frequency of El Niño events recorded in the Galápagos between 1965 and 2004, indicated an approximately 30% probability of extinction within the next 100 years for the penguin population. More ominously, the species may be at a greater risk if the frequency of strong El Niño episodes increases only marginally. A probability of extinction greater than 80% was predicted when the current frequency (5%) of strong El Niño events was doubled (to 10%). The probabilities of extinctions were higher for each subpopulation treated individually, ranging from 34% for Isabela and Fernandina, 64% for Bartolomé-Santiago to 78% for the smallest subpopulation on Floreana. Sensitivity analyses identified survival of penguins during El Niño events and sex ratio as influential parameters. The estimates of extinction risk may be conservative as other threats associated with increased human activities on the islands may further compromise species persistence.     

Biological effects of El Niño on the Galápagos penguin

Long-term monitoring of physical and biological parameters is essential for understanding the effects of El Niño on bird populations, particularly for small or declining populations. We examined the biological effects of El Niño activity from 1965 to 2004 using instrumental sea-surface temperatures from the Galápagos Islands and 20 years of census counts of the Galápagos penguin. Between 1965 and 2004, nine El Niño events were recorded of which two were strong and seven were weak. The two strong El Niño events of 1982-1983 and 1997-1998 were followed by crashes of 77% and 65% of the penguin population, respectively. The evidence suggests that the increased frequency of weak El Niño events limits population recovery. The 2004 penguin population is estimated to be at less than 50% of that prior to the strong 1982-1983 El Niño event. We discuss the biological effects of increased El Niño intensity and frequency within the context of a 6000-year record of El Niño influence and in the light of increasing anthropogenic threats operating after 1535, when the Archipelago was discovered by Europeans.     

Assessing the impact of fisheries, climate and disease on the dynamics of the Indian yellow-nosed Albatross

Many seabird populations are currently decreasing, especially albatrosses for which the primary threat is recognised to be mortality in fisheries. Introduced predators, climate change and other factors such as diseases can also have large impacts on seabirds. Here, we assessed the relative effect of three potential threats: climate, fisheries and diseases on the demography of an endangered marine predator and modelled its population dynamics to project its size under different scenarios. We based our study on a long-term monitoring of a colony of individually marked Indian yellow-nosed albatrosses at Amsterdam Island, subtropical Indian Ocean, that has declined during the past twenty years. We found no evidence for an impact of legal tuna longlining on demographic parameters. Hatching success was lower during El Niño years but survival (0.902 ± 0.011) was not affected by climatic factors. Avian cholera caused high chick mortality (0.808 ± 0.181) which in turn probably triggered the high emigration rate (0.038 ± 0.011) through dispersal of failed breeders. This colony has a high risk of extinction. However, the rest of the population at Amsterdam Island seemingly not affected to the same extent, declined but stabilised since 1998. Matrix models indicated that lowered adult survival and the very low breeding success, resulting in low recruitment, have both contributed to the decline of the yellow-nosed albatross colony until the mid-1990s, but that more recent decline was primarily caused by low fledging success. Our results highlight that potential threats such as fisheries, diseases or climate have to be considered simultaneously to disentangle their roles when assessing the conservation status of a marine predator species.     

Effective population size in a bottlenecked fur seal population

The census population size (N) is usually the only information available for most threatened species. For evolutionary matters, the effective population size (N_e), not the census number, is a prime concern. Factors such as variation in the sex ratio of breeding individuals, variation of population size in different generations and mating system are important. The South American fur seal, Arctocephalus australis, has been exploited in Peru by humans since ca. 2000 BC and now the original population declined 72%, as a result of low food availability during the severe El Niño in 1997-1998. In this sense A. australis is now classified as in danger of extinction in Peru. We present the first estimate of N_e of the Peruvian population of A. australis that takes into account the effects of mating system and variation in population size caused by the 1997-1998 El Niño. The resulting N_e was 2153 specimens. We believe that the estimated N_e for the Peruvian population is a critical value, because it is significantly lower than the mean minimum viable population for vertebrates (7000 breeding age adults). This estimated N_e is of critical importance because combined with the current El Niño events are reasons of great concern for the survival of the species and should be taken into account in future management plans to ensure the conservation and protection of the species in the Peruvian coast.     

Influence of forest fragmentation on an endangered large-bodied lemur in northwestern Madagascar

Madagascar’s diverse and mostly endemic fauna and flora suffer from recent landscape changes that are primarily caused by high levels of human activities. The loss and fragmentation of forest habitats are well known consequences of human activities. In this study, we investigate the effects of forest fragmentation on presence, abundance and genetic diversity in a larger-bodied lemur species, Lepilemur edwardsi, in northwestern Madagascar. In addition, we characterized the genetic differentiation among populations and demographic changes. We found L. edwardsi at only 13 (76.5%) of 17 visited sites, 11 of which were situated in the Ankarafantsika National Park (ANP). We captured between two and 17 individuals per site. We sequenced the mtDNA d-loop of all samples and genotyped 14 microsatellite loci in two exemplary populations for demographic analyses. A negative influence on forest fragmentation could be detected, since the fragments had a lower genetic diversity than sites in the ANP. Genetic differentiation between populations ranged from low to high but was almost always significant. A typical pattern of isolation-by-distance could not be detected and the data could rather be interpreted as results of random genetic drift. The data furthermore revealed signals of a demographic collapse of about two orders of magnitude in the two exemplary sites. This decline probably started during the last few hundred years of intensified human disturbances and population growth. Given the results of this study, urgent conservation actions are needed and should concentrate on an effective protection of the few remaining populations in order to ensure the long-term survival of L. edwardsi.     

Management implications of capybara (Hydrochoerus hydrochaeris) social behavior

Capybaras (Hydrochoerus hydrochaeris) are the world’s largest rodent. Free-living populations are commercially harvested for their meat and leather in Colombia, Venezuela and Argentina; however, there is concern that legal and illegal harvesting is not sustainable. Since capybaras are considered an economic resource, there have been several attempts to explore the effect of different hunting strategies on its population dynamics. Two previous population models have been developed with this goal; however neither included capybara social behavior that may affect population dynamics. We developed an age-structured, density-dependent model of capybara herd dynamics to explore the demographic consequences of different hunting strategies. We then added infanticide and female reproductive suppression to explore the demographic consequences of such behavior. We conducted five different simulations and used ANOVA to estimate the effect of hunting females, hunting males, hunting both males and females, and the independent effects of reproductive suppression and infanticide on population size after 50 years. Our model suggests that suppression has the largest effect on population size, followed by hunting females and males hunting, female hunting, male hunting and infanticide. Thus, to develop more realistic harvesting models, managers should determine the degree of reproductive suppression and the frequency of infanticide by males.     

Estimating population size in the subdesert mesite (Monias benschi): new methods and implications for conservation

The subdesert mesite, a terrestrial non-passerine bird endemic to the Mikea Forest of southwest Madagascar, is currently classified as globally threatened (category: Vulnerable). However, accurate assessment of threat in accordance with the IUCN Red List criteria (A, B and C) requires data on effective population size, area of habitat occupied and rate of decline, none of which is available for this species. Here we present the first empirical estimates of its population size using five complementary methods, three incorporating data on territory size and two using data gathered during call-playback surveys conducted throughout its entire global range. Estimates vary from 98,000 to 152,000 individuals, with the most reliable possibly being that generated by distance sampling (115,000). This figure is more than an order of magnitude greater than the only published estimate of <10,000 individuals. By analysing data on forest cover change, we estimate the population of the subdesert mesite to have declined by, at most, 10% in three generations. Although the rate of deforestation in 1994-1999 is double that calculated for 1962-1994, it is deemed unlikely that the population will decline by 20% over the next three generations. As such the species fails to meet criterion A. Although the subdesert mesite's range and area of occupancy are small, they are not fragmented and do not comprise fewer than 10 locations. Consequently, this species does not meet criterion B. Further, the species fails to meet criterion C, for which a maximum of 10,000 mature adults is required. According to IUCN (2000 Red List of Threatened Species) this species should therefore be downlisted in status. We discuss why it still warrants conservation attention and suggest the need for modifications to the criteria thresholds in relation to basic information about the ecology and taxonomic distinctness of species.     

厄尔尼诺/拉尼娜事件对长江流域气候的影响研究

通过对长江流域近60 a来气象资料和自然灾害资料的搜集和整理,从金沙江/雅砻江水系、岷沱江水系、上游干流区间、嘉陵江水系、乌江水系、汉江水系、洞庭湖水系、鄱阳湖水系和中下游干流区间等9个不同的区域研究了厄尔尼诺/拉尼娜（ElNio—Southern Oscillation,ENSO）事件对长江流域气候的影响。通过对降水量、气温、自然灾害事件等气候因子与ENSO事件的特征进行对比统计分析得出,ENSO事件对长江流域降水量和气温的影响十分显著。厄尔尼诺事件年大多表现为温度升高和降水减少,且发生干旱灾害的概率升高。拉尼娜事件年一般表现为降水增多,洪涝灾害发生率相对增加。建国60 a来长江两次全流域性特大洪涝灾害都发生在厄尔尼诺事件向强拉尼娜事件转换年。厄尔尼诺事件对长江流域气候的影响要强于拉尼娜事件。2009—2010年的ENSO事件气象条件与1998年发生大洪水时的气象条件状况极其相似,2010—2011年和以后强ENSO冷暖事件转换年长江发生全流域性大洪水的可能性大,一定要做好气象监测和气象灾害防治。     

Methodological considerations in reserve system selection: A case study of Malagasy lemurs

Although data quality and weighting decisions impact the outputs of reserve selection algorithms, these factors have not been closely studied. We examine these methodological issues in the use of reserve selection algorithms by comparing: (1) quality of input data and (2) use of different weighting methods for prioritizing among species. In 2003, the government of Madagascar, a global biodiversity hotspot, committed to tripling the size of its protected area network to protect 10% of the country’s total land area. We apply the Zonation reserve selection algorithm to distribution data for 52 lemur species to identify priority areas for the expansion of Madagascar’s reserve network. We assess the similarity of the areas selected, as well as the proportions of lemur ranges protected in the resulting areas when different forms of input data were used: extent of occurrence versus refined extent of occurrence. Low overlap between the areas selected suggests that refined extent of occurrence data are highly desirable, and to best protect lemur species, we recommend refining extent of occurrence ranges using habitat and altitude limitations. Reserve areas were also selected for protection based on three different species weighting schemes, resulting in marked variation in proportional representation of species among the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species extinction risk categories. This result demonstrates that assignment of species weights influences whether a reserve network prioritizes maximizing overall species protection or maximizing protection of the most threatened species.     

Discriminating between village and commercial hunting of apes

Hunting is the major driver of large mammal decline in Central African forests. In slowly reproducing species even low hunting pressure leaves spatial gradients with wildlife density increasing with distance from transport routes and human settlements. Park management can use this pattern formation to identify sources of threats, but also to discriminate between different threat scenarios, such as the impact of subsistence vs. commercial hunting. We conducted an ape survey in the mountainous Moukalaba Doudou National Park, Gabon, to evaluate whether potential population gradients would emanate from the three human population centers in the region or the villages surrounding the park. Using generalized linear modeling we found hill slope as a good predictor of ape nest occurrence probability and the distance to human population centers a better predictor of ape nest density and ape nest group size than distance to villages. In fact ape nest density was three times lower at the park borders close to the human population centers than in the park’s interior. The results indicate that Moukalaba’s ape population is more impacted by commercial than subsistence hunting and suggest that park management should focus conservation efforts on the human population centers. We conclude that in particular for slowly reproducing species geographic information on wildlife population gradients are of additional value for guiding protected area management. The hunting impact on those species might be easily underestimated, if derived only from market surveys or transport route controls, where they are only rarely found.     

From genetic diversity and structure to conservation: Genetic signature of recent population declines in three mouse lemur species (Microcebus spp.)

The exceptional biodiversity of Madagascar is threatened by anthropogenic landscape changes that took place during the 2000 years of human colonization. This study focuses on the influence of geographic distance and forest fragmentation on genetic diversity and population differentiation of three rare, nocturnal, arboreal lemur species in northwestern Madagascar. Historic declines in population sizes as a consequence of forest fragmentation are quantified and dated. Eighteen sites were visited, and a total of 205 Microcebus ravelobensis, 45 M. bongolavensis and 78 M. danfossi were genotyped with eight microsatellite loci. Genetic differentiation among the sites, as measured by F_ST, ranged from 0.01 to 0.19. These values were significant in almost all cases and indicated genetic structure in the samples. Isolation-by-distance was detected in one species and a STRUCTURE analysis indicated that fragmentation further promoted genetic differentiation. Bayesian methods revealed that populations from all three species underwent a major demographic collapse of around two orders of magnitude. This decrease probably began after the arrival of humans, most likely within the last 500 years. This result suggests that anthropogenic changes may have been limited during the first 1500 years of human colonization in all three ranges. Two of the study species (M. danfossi, M. bongolavensis) lack effectively protected areas in their ranges. Consequently, quick conservation actions are now needed in order to secure the remaining genetic diversity of these species.     

Hazard,risk and agrarian adaptations in a hyperarid watershed: El Niño floods,streambank erosion,and the cultural bounds of vulnerability in the Andean Middle Horizon

Peru's Osmore drainage, also known as the Moquegua Valley, is one of the driest regions on Earth, yet agricultural development has supported complex societies in the basin for almost 4000 yrs because of canal construction and irrigation. We compare the distinct agrarian and settlement systems of three coeval archaeological cultures in this arid region, Huaracane, Wari and Tiwanaku, and how each adapted—or failed to adapt—to geomorphic and climatic hazards. Systematic settlement pattern survey and radiocarbon dating along with geomorphological analysis of flood history and riverine processes permit detailed discussion of agrarian strategies during the Formative (1800 BC–AD 500) and Middle Horizon (AD 500–1000) periods, with distinct settlement “niches” in terms of agricultural practices and longitudinal position in the drainage, and lateral location relative to the floodplain. These adaptive strategies each manifest distinct “bounds of adaptability” to natural hazard, climate events and social stressors, and thus varying risk profiles. Besides the continual risk associated with sustained droughts, the Atacama and Peruvian Coastal Desert and culturally connected highland Altiplano are also vulnerable to the vagaries of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) leading to catastrophic floods in the mid-valley during warm phase ENSOs, in tandem with simultaneous hazards in other regions inhabited by these transregional cultures. By comparing the archaeological record of Wari, Huaracane, and Tiwanaku culture settlements with geomorphic signatures of catastrophic El Niños, we show that the viability of each cultural sequence depended on specific relationships to floodplain streambank erosion, construction and reworking over multiple time scales.     

A new abundance estimate for Maui’s dolphin: What does it mean for managing this critically endangered species?

Hector’s dolphin Cephalorhynchus hectori is found only in New Zealand waters. We carried out a population survey of the North Island subspecies Cephalorhychus hectori maui, also known as Maui’s dolphin. The total population size estimate is 111 individuals (95% confidence interval = 48-252). The small population size confirms its critically endangered IUCN status. A sustainable level of human-caused mortality for this population would be 0.16 (one dolphin every 6.4 years). This essentially means that fisheries bycatch, and where possible other human impacts, need to be eliminated to allow population recovery. A protected area has been created to reduce the threat from entanglement in fishing gear. Gillnet fishing is prohibited along a 210 nautical mile stretch of coastline. The main concerns are that gillnet fishing is still allowed inside harbours and trawling continues inside the protected area.     

Modelling hunting strategies for the conservation of wild rabbit populations

Recently, European wild rabbit (Oryctolagus cuniculus) populations have undergone a sharp decline that may be exacerbated by hunting. We investigate the effects of the timing of hunting on the conservation of wild rabbit using a model for rabbit population dynamics. Scenarios with different hunting rates and age strategies were simulated for different population qualities. We interviewed hunters to ascertain the degree to which they would accept a change in the timing of hunting. We also investigated the hunting pressure applied by hunters and its relationship with rabbit abundance. Modelling results indicate that the current hunting season has the greatest impact on rabbit abundance. Hunting in late spring optimises hunting extraction while conserving rabbit populations. When the rabbit population quality is low the effects of age strategies and the timing of hunting are less important than the effect of the hunting rate applied. Almost half the hunters would agree to policy changes. More than 75% of hunters implemented self-imposed hunting restrictions to improve rabbit populations, that were more frequently applied in high rabbit abundance areas. Therefore, changing the timing of hunting and increasing the participation of hunters in low abundance areas could optimise both the exploitation and the conservation of wild rabbit populations in southwestern Europe.     

Habitat selection of endangered and endemic large flying-foxes in Subic Bay, Philippines

Large flying-foxes in insular Southeast Asia are the most threatened of the Old World fruit bats due to high levels of deforestation and hunting and effectively little local conservation commitment. The forest at Subic Bay, Philippines, supports a rare, large colony of vulnerable Philippine giant fruit bats (Pteropus vampyrus lanensis) and endangered and endemic golden-crowned flying-foxes (Acerodon jubatus). These large flying-foxes are optimal for conservation focus, because in addition to being keystone, flagship, and umbrella species, the bats are important to Subic Bay’s economy and its indigenous cultures. Habitat selection information streamlines management’s efforts to protect and conserve these popular but threatened animals. We used radio telemetry to describe the bats’ nighttime use of habitat on two ecological scales: vegetation and microhabitat. The fruit bats used the entire 14,000 ha study area, including all of Subic Bay Watershed Reserve, as well as neighboring forests just outside the protected area boundaries. Their recorded foraging locations ranged between 0.4 and 12 km from the roost. We compared the bats’ use to the availability of vegetative habitat types, riparian areas, and bat trees. The fruit bats’ locations showed a preference for undisturbed forest types and selection against disturbed and agricultural areas. Bat locations also showed selection for particular fruiting/flowering bat trees. The bats showed strong preference for riparian areas; locations were in riparian areas over four times more than expected. From these results we recommend that management focus flying-fox conservation efforts on undisturbed forest and riparian areas.     

Applying IUCN criteria to invertebrates: How red is the Red List of European butterflies?

The IUCN is the leading authority on assessing species’ extinction risks worldwide and introduced the use of quantitative criteria for the compilation of Red Lists of threatened species. Recently, we assessed the threat status of the 483 European butterfly species, using semi-quantitative data on changes in distribution and in population sizes provided by national butterfly experts. We corrected distribution trends for the observation that coarse-scale grid cells underestimate actual population trends by 35%. To account for uncertainty, we included a 5% error margin on the distribution and population trends provided. The new Red List of European butterflies determined one species as Regionally Extinct, 37 species as threatened (Critically Endangered, Endangered or Vulnerable) and a further 44 as Near Threatened. The use of semi-quantitative data on distribution and population trends permitted us to use IUCN criteria to compile a scientifically underpinned Red List of butterflies in Europe. However, a comparison of detailed monitoring data for some grassland species showed that coarse-scale grid cell data and population trends strongly underestimate extinction risks, and the list should be taken as a conservative estimate of threat. Finally, combining the new Red List status with the data provided by the national butterfly experts, allowed us to determine simple criteria to delineate conservation priorities for butterflies in Europe, so called SPecies of European conservation Concern (SPEC’s). Using European butterflies, our approach illustrated how Red Listing can be performed when data are incomplete for some IUCN criteria or vary strongly among countries.     

The impact of introduced predators, light-induced mortality of fledglings and poaching on the dynamics of the Cory’s shearwater (Calonectris diomedea) population from the Azores, northeastern subtropical Atlantic

Cory’s shearwater (Calonectris diomedea) is a procellariiform seabird which breeds in the Mediterranean and the north-eastern subtropical Atlantic, and which is considered “Vulnerable” in Europe due to recent declines at some localities. In the Azores archipelago (Atlantic), the introduction of mammalian predators by man has led to petrels being extirpated from the main islands, except for Cory’s shearwater. Currently, the Azorean population of Cory’s shearwaters represents 65% of the species’ world population. However, its dynamics remains unknown, although: (1) numbers might have declined by 43% between 1996 and 2001, (2) on the main islands, the young suffer mortality from introduced mammals, poachers, and urban lights upon fledging, and (3) at sea, the level of fishery mortality remains unknown.To fill this gap, we conducted a 7-year demographic survey on a mammal-free islet in the Azores to determine adult survival rate using capture-mark-recapture of the breeders and to estimate fecundity. We also assessed urban mortality using the data from the rescue campaigns annually conducted in the archipelago. Urban mortality concerned about 6% of fledglings, but its importance greatly varied among islands. When rescue campaigns occur, the rate might drop below 0.5%. Overall, our simulations concerning the next 100 years do not allow excluding a decrease in Cory’s shearwater numbers in the Azores without rescue campaigns (by 87% under the least favourable scenario). Rescue campaigns should only slow down the decline unless, simultaneously, lower competition for nests compared to Vila islet allows adults to breed almost every year on the main islands and juvenile survival exceeds a threshold value. Since adult survival rate was high (>0.93), an eventual decline of the Azorean population of Cory’s shearwaters would probably not result from fishery mortality of adults, but rather from poor fledgling productivity and perhaps also from low survival during the first year at sea.     

Identifying road mortality threat at multiple spatial scales for semi-aquatic turtles

Prioritizing sites for localized mitigation measures, and forecasting the effect of interventions on an endangered population, requires an understanding of the spatial scales at which threat processes operate. Road mortality is among the greatest threats to semi-terrestrial freshwater turtles due to the group’s life-history traits. Declining throughout much of their range, spotted (Clemmys guttata) and Blanding’s turtles (Emydoidea blandingii) are exposed to high road densities and traffic volumes in the northeastern United States. We examine the distribution of roadkill risk for spotted and Blanding’s turtles at three spatial scales. Tortuosity during upland movements was used to predict road-crossing locations at the single-movement scale. A gravity model of wetland-to-wetland interactions was then developed to identify road mortality hot spots at a broader road segment scale. Finally, road-crossing risk was assessed at the scale of focal areas that support distinct populations, using a population viability analysis to evaluate the consequences of road mortality on resident populations. The observed spatial variability of road mortality risk was high for single road crossing movements, limiting the effectiveness of static mitigation measures conducted at this scale. At the broader road segment scale, road mortality hotspots were evident. The demographic risk associated with roads varied widely among discrete populations, with probabilities of extinction over 100-year projections reaching 5.1% for spotted turtles, and 58.8% for Blanding’s turtles. We conclude that conservation interventions are most likely to be effective in mitigating the effects of road mortality when implemented at the road segment and population scales.     

Freshwater crabs and the biodiversity crisis: Importance, threats, status, and conservation challenges

Freshwater ecosystems in the tropics host a diverse endemic fauna including freshwater crabs, but the rapid loss and deterioration of habitat means that many species are now under imminent threat. Studies on freshwater fish and amphibians suggest a third to half of the species in some tropical freshwaters is either extinct or endangered, but the status of the freshwater crabs is not known. Freshwater crabs, with 1280 species, represent one-fifth of all the World’s brachyurans. We therefore undertook a comprehensive IUCN Red List assessment of the freshwater crabs, which was the first time that such a study had been attempted on a global scale for any group of freshwater invertebrates. The conservation status of all known species from the Americas, Africa, Europe, Asia, and Australasia revealed unexpectedly high threat levels. Here we show that about one-sixth of all freshwater crab species have an elevated risk of extinction, only one-third are not at-risk, and although none are actually extinct, almost half are too poorly known to assess. Out of 122 countries that have populations of freshwater crabs, 43 have species in need of protection. The majority of threatened species are restricted-range semi-terrestrial endemics living in habitats subjected to deforestation, alteration of drainage patterns, and pollution. This is illustrated with a case study of one such species found in Singapore. This underlines the need to prioritize and develop conservation measures before species decline to levels from which they cannot recover. The proportion of freshwater crabs threatened with extinction is equal to that of reef-building corals, and exceeds that of all other groups that have been assessed except for amphibians. These results represent a baseline that can be used to design strategies to save the World’s threatened freshwater crab species.     

The role of demographic compensation theory in incidental take assessments for endangered species

Many endangered species laws provide exceptions to legislated prohibitions through incidental take provisions as long as take is the result of unintended consequences of an otherwise legal activity. These allowances presumably invoke the theory of demographic compensation, commonly applied to harvested species, by allowing limited harm as long as the probability of the species’ survival or recovery is not reduced appreciably. Demographic compensation requires some density-dependent limits on survival or reproduction in a species’ annual cycle that can be alleviated through incidental take. Using a population model for piping plovers in the Great Plains, we found that when the population is in rapid decline or when there is no density dependence, the probability of quasi-extinction increased linearly with increasing take. However, when the population is near stability and subject to density-dependent survival, there was no relationship between quasi-extinction probability and take rates. We note however, that a brief examination of piping plover demography and annual cycles suggests little room for compensatory capacity. We argue that a population’s capacity for demographic compensation of incidental take should be evaluated when considering incidental allowances because compensation is the only mechanism whereby a population can absorb the negative effects of take without incurring a reduction in the probability of survival in the wild. With many endangered species there is probably little known about density dependence and compensatory capacity. Under these circumstances, using multiple system models (with and without compensation) to predict the population’s response to incidental take and implementing follow-up monitoring to assess species response may be valuable in increasing knowledge and improving future decision making.