Population decline in the epiphytic orchid Aspasia principissa

The population dynamics of the epiphytic orchid Aspasia principissa, growing in the moist tropical forest of Barro Colorado Island, Panama, were studied from 1997 until 2004. Using growth analysis, projection matrix analysis, elasticity analysis, and different types of simulations, we identified the components of the life cycle with the strongest effect on population growth rate (λ), and related differences in vital rates to environmental variation, mainly in precipitation. Such information, which is almost completely lacking for tropical orchids, is essential for the efficient conservation of these frequently rare and endangered plants. Elasticity analysis indicated that the population growth rate (λ), which averaged 0.92, was primarily affected by survival, and much less affected by growth or by sexual reproduction. Simulations, which included different levels of pollinator limitation, showed that complete pollination would raise λ to such an extent as to allow long-term persistence of the population. Pollinator limitation per se, however, is presumably not responsible for the currently observed population decline. Instead, we discuss a possible link between low λ and (a) a long-term decline in precipitation and (b) recent increases in forest dynamics: variation in annual rainfall significantly affected both recruitment and growth rates of smaller orchid individuals, while the hypothesised increase in the rates of branch and tree falls would increase mortality rates in this epiphyte.     

Responses of cycads with different life histories to the impact of plant collecting: simulation models to determine important life history stages and population recovery times

Collection of plants and seeds from wild populations threatens a large number of cycad species. We investigated to what extent individual life history stages contribute to population growth (λ) and compared two species with major differences in life histories in the African genus Encephalartos: Encephalartos cycadifolius, a highly persistent grassland species that resprouts after fire, and Encephalartos villosus, a relatively fast growing, non-sprouting forest species. Several harvesting scenarios impacting different sized individuals were simulated to determine the sensitivity of the two functional types to harvesting. In both species λ was most sensitive to changes in abundance of adult plants. The harvesting of seeds had minimal impact on population growth rates, whereas harvesting of adult plants led to rapid population decline. This response from two very different functional types suggests that the conservation of adult plants is critical for all cycad species. Despite similar responses to adult mortality, the two species had substantially different population growth rates. This determined recovery time after harvesting of adult individuals. Encephalartos cycadifolius is typical of highly persistent plant species associated with low levels of recruitment and unable to recover from even small losses of adults within a reasonable conservation time frame (<100 years). Our results suggest that the ability to recover from loss of individuals is an important factor that should be considered when assessing the vulnerability of wild populations to threats.     

Impacts of chronic marine oil pollution and the murre hunt in Newfoundland on thick-billed murre Uria lomvia populations in the eastern Canadian Arctic

We developed a deterministic and stochastic age-based matrix projection population model to assess and quantify the impact of mortality caused by chronic oil pollution and legal hunting on thick-billed murre Uria lomvia populations breeding and wintering in eastern Canada. We calculate the potential population growth rate in the absence of anthropogenic mortality sources using a modeling technique that translates absolute number of birds killed from anthropogenic mortality to potential survival rates in the absence of these anthropogenic impacts. The intrinsic growth rate of the deterministic matrix based on vital rates from Coats Island (λ_d=1.0102), as well as the stochastic growth rate (λ_s=1.0098, 95% C.I. 0.9969-1.0226), matched observed population trends. Hunting mortality reduced population growth rate by 0.020 (0.012-0.039), oiling mortality reduced population growth rate by 0.025 (0.012-0.039). Combined these sources reduced the population growth rate by 0.047 (0.033-0.610). Although thick-billed murre populations are stable or slowly growing in eastern Canada, anthropogenic sources of mortality are reducing the ability of the population to grow, and increase vulnerability in these populations to changes in their environment and other pulse perturbations. Our modeling technique could be used to assess specific anthropogenic impacts on populations where a vital rates and numbers killed are known, but no long-term trend information is available.     

Fruiting failure and limited recruitment in remnant populations of the hawkmoth-pollinated tree Oxyanthus pyriformis subsp. pyriformis (Rubiaceae)

Plants with highly specialized pollination systems may be particularly vulnerable to the effects of habitat fragmentation. The sub-canopy tree Oxyanthus pyriformis subsp. pyriformis has deep tubular flowers (c. 90 mm in length) that are specialized for pollination by long-tongued hawkmoths. Existing natural populations of this taxon appear to be confined to two suburban habitat fragments in the city of Durban, South Africa. Breeding system experiments showed that the trees are self-incompatible and thus completely reliant on pollen vectors for sexual reproduction. Hawkmoths were rarely observed to visit flowers, despite intensive monitoring over four seasons from 1997 to 2003. Fruit set as determined from examination of more than 150,000 flowers at the two sites was extremely low (0.04% and 0.07% of flowers), but increased to more than 70% in flowers that were hand-pollinated with pollen from another tree. This >1000-fold increase in the likelihood of fruit production following pollen-supplementation indicates that trees experience severe pollen-limitation of fruit set. Natural fruit set is so low that only a few dozen fruits were recorded in each population during two years of monitoring. This is of concern as O. pyriformis trees are dependent solely on seeds for recruitment. Demographic surveys showed that remaining natural populations have fewer saplings than adult trees and only two seedlings for every adult tree. The long-term viability of reintroduced populations of O. pyriformis is also in doubt, as we observed an almost complete lack of recruitment in a population that was established in a seemingly suitable forest site 20 years ago. Regular hand-pollination and, in some instances, further planting of saplings, may be the only way to safeguard these populations.     

Management recommendations based on matrix projection models: The importance of considering biological limits

Matrix population models are a common tool for evaluating different management strategies. In general, under deterministic analyses, management strategies are recommended that improve those matrix transitions that are most sensitive or elastic with respect to the asymptotic population growth rate, λ. These recommendations usually ignore the biological limit for these transitions. In this paper we use the endangered Serengeti cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus) as a case study to illustrate that ignoring biological limits leads to a recommendation that will not always achieve the desired goal of an asymptotic population growth rate, λ ? 1.We estimate the survivorships of adult cheetahs in captivity using cheetah studbook data, which is a conservative estimate of the biological limit for the adult survivorship of wild cheetahs. Our analysis suggests that adult survival sharply decreases after 8.5 years. In addition, captive cheetahs older than 18 years do not reproduce. We modify a previously published population projection matrix to include the effect of senescence on survival and fecundity. Our model suggests that increasing adult survivorship alone is not sufficient to reverse population decline. However, an additional small increase in newborn survival is likely to result in a viable cheetah population. We show these conclusions hold even in the presence of relatively large parameter perturbations.     

Population trends in northern spotted owls: Associations with climate in the Pacific Northwest

We used reverse time capture-mark-recapture models to describe associations between rate of population change (λ) and climate for northern spotted owls (Strix occidentalis caurina) at six long-term study areas in Washington and Oregon, USA. Populations in three of six areas showed strong evidence of declining populations, while populations in two additional areas were likely declining as well. At four areas, λ was positively associated with wetter-than-normal conditions during the growing season, which likely affects prey availability. Lambda was also negatively associated with cold, wet winters and nesting seasons, and the number of hot summer days. The amount of annual variation in λ accounted for by climate varied across study areas (3-85%). Rate of population change was more sensitive to adult survival than to recruitment; however, there was considerable variation among years and across study areas for all demographic rates. While annual survival was more closely related to regional climate conditions, recruitment was often associated with local weather. In addition to climate, declines in recruitment at four of six areas were associated with increased presence of barred owls. Climate change models predict warmer, wetter winters and hotter, drier summers for the Pacific Northwest in the first half of the 21st century. Our results indicate that these conditions have the potential to negatively affect annual survival, recruitment, and consequently population growth rates for northern spotted owls.     

How important is clonal recruitment for population maintenance in rare plant species?: the case of the narrow endemic cactus, Stenocereus eruca, in Baja California, México

Stenocereus eruca is a postrate columnar cactus whose regeneration seems to occur mainly through clonal propagation. It is a narrow endemic species of the Sonoran desert in Baja California Sur and currently considered as threatened under Mexican legislation. In this paper we describe the demography of ramets in four populations along its distribution range and the demography of genets in one population during a 3-year-study period in order to evaluate its conservation status. We also analyze the relative contribution of sexual reproduction and clonal propagation to population maintenance and provide guidelines for the formulation of conservation programs. Elasticity analyses were used to explore the relative contribution of sexual and clonal recruitment to projected population growth rate (λ). During the three years of study, regeneration occurred only through clonal propagation while sexually derived seedlings were not detected within or outside the permanent plots. Our demographic data showed that the four population of S. eruca are in equilibrium (λ ≈ 1), and elasticity analyses showed that the relative contribution to λ of clonal recruitment was larger than sexual recruitment, at least during the analyzed ecological time scale. Simulations showed that removing sexual recruitment had a minor impact on λ, but the absence of clonal propagation alone was sufficient to keep below unity. We propose the establishment of at least one reserve with adequate protection from human disturbance to conserve S. eruca.     

Importance of the seed bank for population viability and population monitoring in a threatened wetland herb

Although demographic models have become increasingly important tools in plant conservation, few models have considered the implications of seed banks for population persistence. Based on a 15-year study of the threatened herb, Helenium virginicum, we created a stage-class transition matrix to model the population dynamics of the plant. Our goal was to determine the role of the seed bank in population persistence and in the design of monitoring programs for the plant. Using data from marked plants, a long-term study of seed viability, and a seed bank census, we created a deterministic model and three stochastic models. The stochastic models were a model in which yearly correlations among parameters were retained, a model in which parameters were uncorrelated, and a model in which parameters were derived from log-normal distribution. We also constructed a fourth model in which we assumed a minimum seed lifetime consistent with the seed viability data. Both elasticity and perturbation analysis suggested that seed survival within the seed bank had by far the largest effects on the population growth rate (λ), with 47-64% of the change in λ being controlled by seed survival. Correlations among life history parameters had little effect on λ in the original models, but substantially reduced λ (from 0.97 to 0.86) when seed survival was limited. Given the importance of the seed bank and the high yearly variability in adult plant density, we used simulations to compare power to detect declines with seed bank samples versus censuses of adult plants. The power of adult plant censuses was extremely low (13-22%). The power of seed bank censuses was substantially higher (48-59%), but was limited by large pulses of recruitment to the seed bank in good years. Power was only moderately reduced when seeds were sampled every two or four years instead of yearly (from 59% to 48%). Together, our results suggest that seed survival is crucial to persistence of Helenium populations and that future empirical studies should focus on understanding the factors that affect seed survival. In addition, managers should consider seed bank censuses rather than above-ground plants when designing monitoring programs for plants in variable environments where above-ground plants vary greatly from year to year.     

Two-sex population projection of the endemic and dioecious rainforest shrub, Gardenia actinocarpa (Rubiaceae)

Gardenia actinocarpa (Rubiaceae)—an endemic and dioecious shrub-small tree of the lowland rainforest of Cape Tribulation, NE Australia—is evaluated for its long-term population persistence using five-year demographic data from three permanent plots of the species. Two-sex, size-specific Lefkovitch matrices were constructed to evaluate the species’ vital rates and extinction thresholds. One site indicated a sign of significant population growth (annual λ=1.056), while the remaining two gave λs close to unity (λ=1.0102 and 1.007). Overall, λ was greater than 1 (λ=1.0281) indicating that G. actinocarpa will increase in population size with time, though male plants were projected to grow faster in number than female plants. Elasticity analyses indicated that the largest size class (>22 cm diameter) made the greatest contribution to population growth (28%), especially the male plants (23%). Also λ was equally sensitive to survival/stasis (45%) and growth (44%) and least sensitive to fecundity (11%). Stochastic simulations gave 0.505 probability of quasi-extinction to 10% of its initial size in 100 years of population growth projection- suggesting that the endemic G. actinocarpa, despite a positive rate of population increase, is indeed threatened. Sensitivity analyses and numerical simulations showed that to maintain population persistence of G. actinocarpa, efforts should concentrate, following cost-benefit analyses, on increasing seed production coupled with enhancing establishment of individuals in the seedling, juvenile and vegetative phases.     

Are populations of the candy barrel cactus (Echinocactus platyacanthus) in the desert of Tehuacán, Mexico at risk? Population projection matrix and life table response analysis

Echinocactus platyacanthus is a candy barrel cactus endemic to Mexico and an endangered species owing to its exploitation and the destruction of its habitat. The population dynamic of this species is analyzed using matrix models. Three consecutive censuses were carried out (1997, 1998, and 1999) for six populations of this species in the Tehuacán-Cuicatlán Biosphere Reserve. Fruit contain many seeds (mean = 171 ± S.E. 11.03 seeds/fruit); seedling establishment and survival are low (2 × 10⁻⁶), and fecundity increases as the diameter of the individuals increases (62 seeds in adult 1-4322 in adult 4). The rates of population growth (λ) range from 0.9285 to 1.0005. Elasticity values for demographic processes indicate that the stasis of the adults is the greatest contribution (S = 0.982), followed by growth (G = 0.017) and fecundity (F = 0.001) to λ. The populations are located in the lower left corner of the demographic triangle; however, there are variations for a given population from one year to the next. Life table response experiments indicate that although there are local variations, the most important differences in the values of λ between populations and between years are associated with changes in the stasis of the adults. The disturbance index is not directly related to population density or to the current value of λ. The protection of adult E. platyacanthus must be taken into account for the management of this species and its conservation in the study area.     

Spatial and temporal effects on recruitment of an Afromontane forest tree in a threatened fragmented ecosystem

Tropical forest fragmentation affects animal and plant populations in different ways. For plants, early stages (seed to seedling) are more sensitive to habitat alteration than adults, and can shape their future spatial patterns. Therefore, studying how seed germination and seedling growth and survival vary at different spatiotemporal scales enhances our understanding about plant recruitment in fragmented ecosystems. In this study we examine if, and to what extent, recruitment at early life-stages of Xymalos monospora (Monomiaceae), a bird-dispersed Afrotropical tree, differs between and within forest fragments that vary in size, surrounding matrix and microhabitats. Three years of field experiments (2004-2006) in south-east Kenya, revealed that patterns of seed germination and seedling survival and growth were largely inconsistent, both in space and time. Recruitment was not consistently higher in larger or less disturbed fragments. At smaller spatial scales within forest fragments, recruitment was subject to high between-year variation too, with decreased germination in gaps only in the dry year of 2004. However, performance of seeds and seedlings was consistently better away from than under conspecific fruiting trees. Our results imply that fragmented tree populations of X. monospora may become age-structured, or ultimately go extinct, if recruitment fails in subsequent years. This may especially affect populations in small, disturbed forest fragments, where seed dispersal and buffering against stochastic processes are generally reduced. Exotic plantations bordering indigenous forest fragments may provide suitable conditions for native tree recruitment; hence, forest expansion through enrichment planting should be considered in future conservation plans.     

The implications of poaching for giant panda conservation

Poaching giant pandas (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) for their skins is a serious threat to the persistence of wild giant panda populations in China. An individual-based, age-structured stochastic simulation model was constructed to give a quantitative analysis of the effects of poaching. The model takes a total wild population of 1216 individuals divided among 16 ‘patches’. The model treats individual populations as being completely independent, with no dispersal, and density-dependence only enters into the model through local carrying capacity of patches. The model simulates three types of poaching: deterministic (constant) poaching, stochastic poaching with normal distribution and stochastic poaching with observed distribution. Results showed that, with a given initial population, poaching adult females produces lower average population size and higher average percentage extinction than poaching adult males or young. At the same poaching intensity, all three poaching simulations predicted a similar probability of extinction. However, they predicted different average population size and percentage extinction because of differences in the parameters in the three models. These results should therefore be treated with caution when constant poaching simulation or stochastic poaching with assumed normal distribution is used as a simplification of realistic poaching. Nevertheless, the results imply that giant pandas are threatened by any reduction in natural populations. Effective measures are essential to reduce poaching. It is also important to limit the capturing of wild animals for zoos or breeding facilities as this also has a serious effect on the total population.     

Trophic cascades involving cougar, mule deer, and black oaks in Yosemite National Park

Using a historical reconstruction, we discovered a potential trophic cascade involving cougar (Puma concolor), mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus), and California black oak (Quercus kelloggii) in the Yosemite Valley of Yosemite National Park in California. Our objective was to determine whether large deer populations in the absence of a top-level carnivore were suppressing tree regeneration. As human visitation increased in the early 1900s and cougar became increasingly scarce, the mule deer population irrupted in the 1920s. In August 2006, we undertook a retrospective study of black oak recruitment (i.e., growth of seedling/sprouts into tall saplings and trees) by inventorying all black oaks in stands accessible to deer and greater than 0.5 ha in size (18 stands, 2921 trees). We similarly inventoried oaks within sites representing refugia from deer browsing (4 stands, 481 trees). While significantly diminished oak recruitment has occurred since the 1920s in stands accessible to deer (p < 0.01), continuous recruitment of oaks was found in refugia sites. We also found less oak recruitment in areas of high human activity near the park’s visitor center (p < 0.01), possibly due to behaviorally-mediated effects of lower cougar and higher deer densities. Overall our results are consistent with trophic cascade theory involving large predators, herbivores, and plants. The long-term lack of oak recruitment is also an indicator of a probable loss of biodiversity.     

Predicting reproductive success of insect- versus bird-pollinated scattered trees in agricultural landscapes

Scattered trees are set to be lost from agricultural landscapes within the next century without sustained effort to increase recruitment. Thus, understanding the reproductive dynamics of scattered tree populations will be critical in determining how they can contribute to population restoration. The distance between conspecifics should be a key predictor of reproductive success, as more isolated trees are expected to receive fewer pollinator visits and experience increased transfer of self-pollen during longer pollinator foraging bouts. Further, isolation effects should be greater in species with less mobile pollinators. Here we contrast the effects of plant isolation on reproductive success of two species of eucalypt “paddock trees”, Eucalyptus camaldulensis and Eucalyptus leucoxylon, with insect- and bird-pollination, respectively. Seed production was not affected by tree isolation in either the insect- or bird-pollinated species and once outliers were removed, neither was there an effect on germination rate. As somatic mutations may bias outcrossing rate estimates, we initially screened our microsatellite markers for mutations but found no variation in microsatellite profiles throughout the canopy of trees. Individual outcrossing rates did not decline with increasing tree isolation in either the insect- or bird-pollinated species, though there was considerable variation in these rates at large distances, suggesting that pollination becomes unreliable with increasing tree isolation. We found that pollination distances have likely increased in tree species in agricultural landscapes, and that this may be facilitated by introduced honeybees in the case of E. camaldulensis. We therefore suggest that even isolated trees of these species produce seed of sufficient quantity and quality to contribute to population restoration.     

Interactions between poaching and management policy affect marine reserves as conservation tools

To explore the effects of poaching within marine reserve boundaries under three different management policies this analysis uses a simple age-structured reserve model based on yield maximization or reproductive thresholds of Black rockfish (Sebastes melanops). Departures from the traditional assumptions of full compliance to reserve boundaries alter the conclusions of prior modeling work that demonstrate yield equivalence to no-reserve effort control management and augmented reproductive benefits when small reserves are implemented. By degrading the recruitment subsidization effect to nonreserve areas from protected reserve populations, poaching resulted in negative externalities for compliant fishermen in open areas in terms of yield and degraded the reproductive output and age-structure of the system. All three policies required effort reduction in open areas as a response to poaching in reserves. The strength of the impacts from poaching varied with policy choice and harvest intensity in the reserve, where at the highest level of poaching modeled here (15% annual exploitation rate of the vulnerable reserve population) biological and fishery benefits of implementing reserves were totally negated. Under the assumptions of this model, a policy managing for a reproductive threshold that excludes the reserve population is the precautionary choice if poaching is likely. The results of this exercise emphasize the importance of garnering compliance to reserve boundaries from resource-users for spatial closures to be successful ocean management tools.     

Population recovery patterns of Southeast Asian ungulates after poaching

Large ungulate populations in Southeast Asia have collapsed due to commercial poaching, but little is known about patterns of population recovery after poaching has been controlled. Using a sign-based index of abundance, we measured 6-year trends in abundance and habitat use of five ungulate species after poaching ceased at a site in Thailand. Regression slopes of annual indices against time indicated population growth rates (r) of 0.44 and 0.31 for muntjac (Muntiacus muntjak) and gaur (Bos gaurus), respectively—close to the intrinsic rates of natural increase for similarly-sized ungulates. Thus, muntjac and gaur can recover relatively rapidly from low population levels. In contrast, sambar (Cervus unicolor) remained consistently rare despite freedom from hunting, perhaps because prime males had been selectively targeted for trophies, disrupting the species mating system. Wild pigs (Sus scrofa) were already relatively abundant when monitoring started, illustrating their resilience to hunting and ability to quickly recolonize disturbed areas. Gaur herds (the key demographic unit of the population) and muntjac consistently selected deciduous over evergreen forest as their populations increased, revealing the importance of food-rich deciduous forest in driving recovery of these species. The unexpected failure of sambar to recover suggests that reproductive behavior may override seemingly positive interventions (i.e., stopping poaching) that reduce mortality. Small but well-protected recovery zones set within forested areas might help propel population recovery of ungulates and increase the prey base for endangered tigers.     

Survival rates and causes of mortality in Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) in multi-use landscapes

Causes of mortality were described for 245 radio-marked Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) in five different Scandinavian study areas. Furthermore, the survival rates and the population growth rates were estimated for three of the study areas where 202 lynx were followed for a total of 314 radio-years. The main causes of mortality in adult Eurasian lynx in all our study areas were overwhelmingly anthropogenic, with starvation, vehicle collisions, intra- and interspecific killing and disease only having a minor role. The mean mortality rates for adults increased from 2% to 17% when hunting and poaching were included, i.e., an increase by a factor of eight. This in turn had a large impact on population growth rates, which changed from more than a 20% annual increase to only a 2-4% when hunting and poaching were included. Poaching accounted for 46% of the mortality in adult lynx. Poaching and legal harvest appear to be primarily motivated by conflicts; lynx depredation on semi-domestic reindeer in northern Scandinavia, competition with hunters for roe deer in southern Scandinavia, and depredation on free-ranging domestic sheep in all Norway. The lowest poaching rate was found in the Hedmark study area in Norway, which also had a high legal harvest. The poaching rate was higher in one of the Swedish study areas (Sarek) where legal hunting was lower than in other areas. On the other hand, both the poaching rate and the legal harvest were high in the Akershus/Østfold study area in Norway. Thus, there does not seem to be a simple relationship between an increased legal harvest and decreased poaching as is commonly expected. The most important conservation actions are to combat poaching through both law enforcement and measures designed to increase tolerance.     

Demographic analysis of a rare columnar cactus (Neobuxbaumia macrocephala) in the Tehuacan Valley, Mexico

In this study we used population projection matrices to evaluate the conservation status of Neobuxbaumia macrocephala, a columnar cactus endemic to a small region in the Tehuacan Valley, in central Mexico. Demographic data included 2-year observations on growth, fecundity and survival of individuals classified by size. Our results indicate that the population is comprised of 70% juveniles. Population growth rate was 0.979 and 0.994 for the 1997/1998 and the 1998/1999 periods, respectively. The slight increase in λ in 1998/1999 was a result of increased fecundity and seedling survival. The highest elasticity values correspond to the survival of large/old individuals. Numerical simulations were performed by changing the value of particular matrix entries and directly evaluating their effect on λ. Population growth rate reached values above unity only when either fecundity or seedling survival probability were increased 10-fold. Given these limitations for population growth, along with its limited distribution range and low population densities, we propose N. macrocephala to be classified as a rare species and to promote its conservation by favoring management practices aimed to increase germination and seedling establishment success.     

Balanites wilsoniana: Regeneration with and without elephants

Tropical forest trees that produce large fruits and/or large seeds are believed to be dependant on a few and often rare large vertebrates for dispersal. However, little is known about the population dynamics of such trees when they lose their specialised dispersers. This study examines the juvenile spatial distribution of Balanites wilsoniana, Dawe & Spraque, which is believed to be dependant solely on elephants for dispersal, in forests with and without elephants. Using camera traps, elephants were confirmed to be the only frugivores feeding and thus dispersing Balanites wilsoniana fruits. There was a high density of seedlings beneath adult trees in one forest without elephants, which was attributed to low seed and seedling predation in this forest. Nevertheless, it was only in the forest with elephants that juveniles were established away from adult trees. Analysis of the spatial distribution of these juveniles by size revealed that saplings and poles are more likely to be found away from adult trees thus providing evidence that dispersal enhances juvenile survival. This study underlines the importance of seed dispersal for trees that cannot maintain their populations through seedlings germinating and surviving beneath adult conspecifics. The study also demonstrates that loss of vertebrates has ramifications for tree species dynamics above and beyond loss of seed dispersers.     

Life-history traits and population growth rate in the laboratory of the earthworm Dendrobaena octaedra cultured in copper-contaminated soil

A study on the widespread earthworm Dendrobaena octaedra was conducted to determine which individual life history traits were the most sensitive to copper and to determine the contribution of changes in individual traits to changes in the population growth rate (λ). The study showed that the effect of copper on population growth rate mirrored the effects seen on growth, maturation and reproductive output, with stimulation at the lowest concentrations and inhibition at the highest concentration. A decomposition analysis showed that the mean change in λ was mainly driven by time between consecutive cocoon productions, except at the highest copper concentration (200 mg/kg dry soil) where decreased production of fertile cocoons also contributed to the reductions in λ. The highest population growth rate (λ = 1.18 week⁻¹) occurred at 80 mg Cu/kg dry soil. At higher concentrations λ became gradually smaller, and was almost 1 week⁻¹ (where no population increase or decrease occurs) at the highest exposure concentration of 200 mg Cu/kg dry soil suggesting that extinction would occur if a population of D. octaedra were to be exposed to copper concentrations only slightly higher than this level.