气候变化对中国水资源的影响

综述了气候变化对我国水资源的影响。气候变化会引起水循环的改变,而水循环的改变将可能影响各种灾害天气时间的长短、频率、损失以及水资源的可利用率;气候变暖可能使北方江河径流量减少,南方径流量增大,导致旱涝灾害出现频率增加,并加剧水资源的不稳定性与供需矛盾。     

Decadal trends in the north atlantic oscillation: regional temperatures and precipitation

Greenland ice-core data have revealed large decadal climate variations over the North Atlantic that can be related to a major source of low-frequency variability, the North Atlantic Oscillation. Over the past decade, the Oscillation has remained in one extreme phase during the winters, contributing significantly to the recent wintertime warmth across Europe and to cold conditions in the northwest Atlantic. An evaluation of the atmospheric moisture budget reveals coherent large-scale changes since 1980 that are linked to recent dry conditions over southern Europe and the Mediterranean, whereas northern Europe and parts of Scandinavia have generally experienced wetter than normal conditions.     

Southern Hemisphere water mass conversion linked with North Atlantic climate variability

Intermediate water variability at multicentennial scales is documented by 340,000-year-long isotope time series from bottom-dwelling foraminifers at a mid-depth core site in the southwest Pacific. Periods of sudden increases in intermediate water production are linked with transient Southern Hemisphere warm episodes, which implies direct control of climate warming on intermediate water conversion at high southern latitudes. Coincidence with episodes of climate cooling and minimum or halted deepwater convection in the North Atlantic provides striking evidence for interdependence of water mass conversion in both hemispheres, with implications for interhemispheric forcing of ocean thermohaline circulation and climate instability.     

Mediterranean moisture source for an early-Holocene humid period in the northern Red Sea

Paleosalinity and terrigenous sediment input changes reconstructed on two sediment cores from the northernmost Red Sea were used to infer hydrological changes at the southern margin of the Mediterranean climate zone during the Holocene. Between approximately 9.25 and 7.25 thousand years ago, about 3 per thousand reduced surface water salinities and enhanced fluvial sediment input suggest substantially higher rainfall and freshwater runoff, which thereafter decreased to modern values. The northern Red Sea humid interval is best explained by enhancement and southward extension of rainfall from Mediterranean sources, possibly involving strengthened early-Holocene Arctic Oscillation patterns and a regional monsoon-type circulation induced by increased land-sea temperature contrasts. We conclude that Afro-Asian monsoonal rains did not cross the subtropical desert zone during the early to mid-Holocene.     

我国植物物候变化及对气候变化的响应综述

物候是指示气候变化的主要指标之一,开展物候对全球变化的响应研究是现代物候学研究的一个热点领域。综合论述了现有国内外已有的文献,阐述了研究物候的意义,对比我国北方地区与南方地区的物候变化及其对气候变化的响应,揭示各个区域物候变化趋势及各自特征。     

五大连池火山蒙古栎和紫椴径向生长对气候变化的响应

研究不同气候因子利用策略的蒙古栎和紫椴径向生长与气候变化的关系,进而为气候变暖后,该区域火山森林生态系统管理和利用提供基础数据。以蒙古栎和紫椴为研究对象,采用树木年代学方法分析了蒙古栎和紫椴径向生长对气候变化的响应,揭示蒙古栎和紫椴径向生长-气候的关系对气温突变的响应差异。结果表明:1)五大连池火山6-7月的月平均最高气温和干燥指数与蒙古栎和紫椴年轮指数均呈显著负相关(P<0.05),这表明同一区域树木生长-气候关系具有一定的相似性,也表明6-7月的月平均最高气温和干燥指数是该地区蒙古栎和紫椴径向生长的主要限制因子。2)蒙古栎和紫椴年轮指数在突变增温(1981年)前后与气候的响应关系呈现明显的变化,气温明显变暖后与气侯的响应更加敏感; 突变增温后,南北坡向蒙古栎和紫椴树木生长-气候响应差异显著,南坡蒙古栎径向生长的趋势与温度升高的趋势相同,而北坡紫椴径向生长则呈现出随着温度升高而降低的现象。升温造成的干旱胁迫可能是2树种生长响应差异及北坡紫椴出现生长对温度变化响应的“分离现象”的重要原因。如果未来增温趋势持续或者加重,紫椴的生长可能会因干旱胁迫加剧而衰退,蒙古栎生长增长的趋势快速下降或也出现生长对温度变化响应的“分离现象”。     

黄南天然草地气候生产潜力分析

为了充分利用气候资源,合理布局农牧业生产,本研究利用黄南州4个县站1961—2018年的气象资料,采用迈阿密模型和Tharnthwaite Memorial模型对当地天然草地的气候生产潜力进行估算,对主要影响因子进行相关分析,模拟不同气候背景下气候生产潜力的响应。结果表明：黄南州气候生产潜力以水热配合较好的同仁最大,水热配合最差的泽库最小,气候生产潜力南部主要受限于气温,北部主要受限于降水。当气候向暖湿变化时对黄南草地气候生产力增加有利,当气候向冷干变化时对整个黄南草地气候生产力增加极为不利。     

Climate-driven range expansion and morphological evolution in a marine gastropod

Little is known about the phenotypic consequences of global climate change, despite the excellent Pleistocene fossil record of many taxa. We used morphological measurements from extant and Pleistocene populations of a marine gastropod (Acanthinucella spirata) in conjunction with mitochondrial DNA sequence variation from living populations to determine how populations responded phenotypically to Pleistocene climatic changes. Northern populations show little sequence variation as compared to southern populations, a pattern consistent with a recent northward range expansion. These recently recolonized northern populations also contain shell morphologies that are absent in extant southern populations and throughout the Pleistocene fossil record. Thus, contrary to traditional expectations that morphological evolution should occur largely within Pleistocene refugia, our data show that geographical range shifts in response to climatic change can lead to significant morphological evolution.     

Relative timing of deglacial climate events in Antarctica and Greenland

The last deglaciation was marked by large, hemispheric, millennial-scale climate variations: the B?lling-Aller?d and Younger Dryas periods in the north, and the Antarctic Cold Reversal in the south. A chronology from the high-accumulation Law Dome East Antarctic ice core constrains the relative timing of these two events and provides strong evidence that the cooling at the start of the Antarctic Cold Reversal did not follow the abrupt warming during the northern B?lling transition around 14,500 years ago. This result suggests that southern changes are not a direct response to abrupt changes in North Atlantic thermohaline circulation, as is assumed in the conventional picture of a hemispheric temperature seesaw.     

云南植烟区气候聚类分析

[目的]研究云南烟区6个气候要素的聚类。[方法]采用系统聚类分析对云南植烟区12个地州89个植烟县的6个气象要素进行聚类分析,根据各类型的指标特征及气候特点,对云南省主要植烟区的气候进行划分。[结果]云南省主要植烟区的气候可划分为8个类型,分别是以江川(24个县,属北亚热和中亚热气候带)、嵩明(27个县区,属北亚热和中、南、北温气候带)、腾冲(3个县,属北亚热气候带)、弥勒(12个县,属中亚热和南亚热气候带)、邱北(11个县区,属南亚热气候带)、盐津(4个县,属中亚热带湿润气候带)、元江(4个县,属南亚热和北热气候带)、镇雄(3个县,属暖温带和北亚热气候带)为代表。第1～8生态区气候达1级相似的国内外城市分别有3、1、1、0、1、1、0、1个市,达2级相似的分别有12、15、3、13、13、1、5、3个市。8大生态区中,1级相似的城市相似距离在0.28～0.45,相似程度最高,相互引种容易成功;2级相似的城市相似距离在0.51～1.00,相似程度较高,相互引种成功率较高。[结论]该研究为选择适宜不同地区种植的新、引烤烟品种以及优化不同地区烤烟品种布局提供理论依据。     

1980-2014年新疆地区碳库时空动态研究

通过对1980-2014年新疆地区时空尺度上碳库的动态进行研究,结果表明,1997年之前气候变化波动相对较小,碳收支基本处于平衡状态,1998-2008年有2次较大的碳流失现象发生.南疆和北疆呈现出不同的碳汇趋势,碳汇发生在天山及阿尔泰山等山区的中低山带,昆仑山北部山区以及阿尔泰山南缘出现较大程度的土壤碳降低态势.     

Southward migration of the intertropical convergence zone through the Holocene

Titanium and iron concentration data from the anoxic Cariaco Basin, off the Venezuelan coast, can be used to infer variations in the hydrological cycle over northern South America during the past 14,000 years with subdecadal resolution. Following a dry Younger Dryas, a period of increased precipitation and riverine discharge occurred during the Holocene "thermal maximum." Since approximately 5400 years ago, a trend toward drier conditions is evident from the data, with high-amplitude fluctuations and precipitation minima during the time interval 3800 to 2800 years ago and during the "Little Ice Age." These regional changes in precipitation are best explained by shifts in the mean latitude of the Atlantic Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), potentially driven by Pacific-based climate variability. The Cariaco Basin record exhibits strong correlations with climate records from distant regions, including the high-latitude Northern Hemisphere, providing evidence for global teleconnections among regional climates.     

我国北方耐寒蓝莓品种选择的研究

蓝莓的栽培品种大部分起源于北美,大体上可以分为北部高丛蓝莓、南部高丛蓝莓、半高丛蓝莓和兔眼蓝莓以及矮丛蓝莓5个种群,各种群有各自适应的气候和栽培条件。本文在分析美国蓝莓种植区划及各区化栽培品种特点的基础上,结合我国北方气候及土质条件,提出了我国北方地区蓝莓品种选择的基本要求及栽培要点。     

山东博山中华猕猴桃生长气候条件分析

博山地处鲁中山区,光照充足,属北方长日照地区。该区处在鲁山山脉的迎风坡,降水充沛,年均气温11.3～11.9℃,没有大于35℃的高温日数,昼夜温差大,四季分明,在海拔400～600 m高度层中,一年四季都有相对逆温。夏季气候凉爽,不易形成猕猴桃高温热害;冬季"暖带效应"为猕猴桃安全越冬创造了良好气候条件。但由于该区地形复杂,初终霜冻的出现日期差异较大,常遭受早霜及晚霜天气为害。由于降水量的年际变化大,季节分配不均,春、秋旱及夏伏旱均有一定的发生,因此,在建园的时候,应选择向阳背风的、面向东南或东向的缓坡地(15°以下),靠近塘坝、河流、机井等水源的地方选址,发展适度灌溉以及现代农业节水灌溉设施以及发展适当的现代设施农业才能更好地趋利避害,提高广大种植户的经济效益。     

安徽北亚热带森林植被恢复策略研究

安徽北亚热带处于我国整个北亚热带的经向中段,是我国南北物种扩散的通道。该区现有森林植被类型结构十分单调,地带性森林植被类型的林分很少,未能充分发挥地带性气候资源潜力和优势;而且森林生态系统脆弱,沟通南北物种交融的基础薄弱。笔者研究了恢复该区森林植被的策略,以构成多样化森林植被类型镶嵌的格局。     

浅析中国传统园林南北的差异

中国园林历史悠久,特色鲜明,在长期的社会发展中,由于历史、气候等因素形成北方地区以皇家园林为主和南方地区以私家园林为主,两种园林形式在继承传统文化的基础上,在规模、布局、建筑等方面存在着很大的差别,以致今天形成两种园林风格,在世界园林艺术中具有很重要的影响。     

Climate change and latitudinal patterns of intertidal thermal stress

The interaction of climate and the timing of low tides along the West Coast of the United States creates a complex mosaic of thermal environments, in which northern sites can be more thermally stressful than southern sites. Thus, climate change may not lead to a poleward shift in the distribution of intertidal organisms, as has been proposed, but instead will likely cause localized extinctions at a series of "hot spots." Patterns of exposure to extreme climatic conditions are temporally variable, and tidal predictions suggest that in the next 3 to 5 years "hot spots" are likely to appear at several northern sites.     

340,000-year centennial-scale marine record of Southern Hemisphere climatic oscillation

In order to investigate rapid climatic changes at mid-southern latitudes, we have developed centennial-scale paleoceanographic records from the southwest Pacific that enable detailed comparison with Antarctic ice core records. These records suggest close coupling of mid-southern latitudes with Antarctic climate during deglacial and interglacial periods. Glacial sections display higher variability than is seen in Antarctic ice cores, which implies climatic decoupling between mid- and high southern latitudes due to enhanced circum-Antarctic circulation. Structural and temporal similarity with the Greenland ice core record is evident in glacial sections and suggests a degree of interhemispheric synchroneity not predicted from bipolar ice core correlations.     

大学生村官工作适应“滑坡现象”研究

采用问卷法在华东地区、华南地区、华北地区、华中地区、西南地区及东北地区共调查了550名大学生村官.研究发现:大学生村官的工作适应水平随着工作年限的增加呈现波浪式下滑的趋势,进一步分析揭示,保障机制不健全、不受组织重视、不良的组织氛围以及对工作的不满是导致大学生村官工作适应水平下滑的重要因素.研究认为,必须完善大学生村官的保障机制,改善大学生村官的工作氛围,如此可望提高大学生村官的工作适应水平.     

Quantifying the spatial variation in the potential productivity and yield gap of winter wheat in China

Despite the improvement in cultivar characters and management practices,large gaps between the attainable and potential yields still exist in winter wheat of China.Quantifying the crop potential yield is essential for estimating the food production capacity and improving agricultural policies to ensure food security.Gradually descending models and geographic information system(GIS) technology were employed to characterize the spatial variability of potential yields and yield gaps in winter wheat across the main production region of China.The results showed that during 2000-2010,the average potential yield limited by thermal resource(YG_T) was 23.2 Mg ha~(-1),with larger value in the northern area relative to the southern area.The potential yield limited by the water supply(VG_W) generally decreased from north to south,with an average value of 1.9 Mg ha~(-1) across the entire study region.The highest YG_W in the north sub-region(NS) implied that the irrigation and drainage conditions in this sub-region must be improved.The averaged yield loss of winter wheat from nutrient deficiency(YG_N) varied between 2.1 and 3.1 Mg ha~(-1) in the study area,which was greater than the yield loss caused by water limitation.The potential decrease in yield from photo-thermal-water-nutrient-limited production to actual yield(YG_o) was over6.0 Mg ha"1,ranging from 4.9 to 8.3 Mg ha~(-1) across the entire study region,and it was more obvious in the southern area than in the northern area.These findings suggest that across the main winter wheat production region,the highest yield gap was induced by thermal resources,followed by other factors,such as the level of farming technology,social policy and economic feasibility.Furthermore,there are opportunities to narrow the yield gaps by making full use of climatic resources and developing a reasonable production plan for winter wheat crops.Thus,meeting the challenges of food security and sustainability in the coming decades is possible but will require considerable changes in water and nutrient management and socio-economic policies.