Last days in the Carteret Islands? Climate change,livelihoods and migration on coral atolls

It is widely assumed that the impacts of climate change on atolls will render them uninhabitable. The Carteret Islands, an iconic Pacific atoll, is experiencing physical changes, documented in the media, the outcome of multiple factors, alongside critical economic livelihood problems. Its population has sought to resettle on nearby Bougainville Island, but land has not become available. The search for migration opportunities parallels trends on coral atolls elsewhere where survival strategies have involved regional and international ties, with cultures of migration, focused on more distant international destinations. Carteret Islanders have not been able to mobilise similar relationships. For many atolls and atoll states, migration has increasingly become a livelihood strategy, irrespective of climate change. That is likely to become even more true in the future, but the outcome will be dependent on policies and practices in metropolitan destination states.     

气候变化背景下的现代农业科技传播体系构建

在气候变化背景下我国现代农业发展面临着科技传播体系的缺失,具体表现为“传者本位”思想突出,农业适应气候变化的先进理念和先进技术无法传播到农村弱势群体;传播渠道过于狭窄,农业适应气候变化的先进理念和先进技术无法准确及时得到传播;农民科学素养不高,农业适应气候变化的先进理念和先进技术无法得到农民的追随与认同、扩散;传播内容受到限制,农业适应气候变化的先进理念和先进技术无法得到主动持续更新;“科教推用”难以结合,导致农业适应气候变化的先进理念和先进技术传播的效果不佳。因此,应构建“五个W分层分级环形互动科学传播体系模式”,即构建气候变化背景下的“现代农业科技传播者系统”;构建气候变化背景下的“现代农业科技讯息系统”;构建气候变化背景下的“现代农业科技媒介系统”;构建气候变化背景下的“现代农业科技受传者系统”;构建气候变化背景下的“现代农业科技效果系统”。这一体系模式既是适应气候变化的,也是适应现代农业发展趋势的。     

Resettlement and the environment in Vietnam: Implications for climate change adaptation planning

Increasingly the environment, and climate risks in particular, are influencing migration and planned resettlement in Vietnam, raising the spectre of increased displacement in a country already confronting serious challenges around sustainable land and water use as well as urbanisation. Planned resettlement has emerged as part of a suite of measures being pursued as part of disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation strategies. This paper provides an historical, political, legal and environmental overview of resettlement in Vietnam identifying key challenges for framing resettlement as climate change adaptation. The paper outlines the scale of past resettlement in Vietnam, identifying the drivers and implications for vulnerability. Detailed case studies of resettlement are reviewed. Through this review, the paper reflects on the growing threat of climate change and the likelihood of increased displacement associated with worsening climate risks to identify some critical considerations for planned resettlement in climate change adaptation planning.     

Fijian adolescents’ understanding and evaluation of climate change: Implications for enabling effective future adaptation

Pacific Island countries are particularly vulnerable to future manifestations of climate change due to high coastline‐to‐land‐area ratios, and high dependence of inhabitants on natural ecosystems. While everyone in the Pacific Islands should participate in climate change adaptation activities, it is the young people, given they are the generation likely to not only bear the burden of climate change, but to lead and live effective climate change adaptation activities and strategies specific to their region, the involvement of youth is critical. Pacific Island youths are often marginalised within traditional decision‐making hierarchies, therefore they are typically excluded from participating in meaningful discussions at community and government levels. Discussions were held with 30 adolescents aged 14–18 years in Fiji to explore knowledge and experiences regarding climate change. Participants revealed their dismay at their inability to talk to family – who they consider are not doing enough – about what they consider as appropriate responses to climate change, recommending the help of an authoritative outsider who could speak to their community leaders and family. Discussions also revealed that Fijian youth could not distinguish between changes in the climate and normal weather events, attesting to the importance of climate‐change education and awareness‐raising efforts within the Pacific Islands more generally.     

Impacts and adaptation of European crop production systems to climate change

The studies on anthropogenic climate change performed in the last decade over Europe show consistent projections of increases in temperature and different patterns of precipitation with widespread increases in northern Europe and decreases over parts of southern and eastern Europe. In many countries and in recent years there is a tendency towards cereal grain yield stagnation and increased yield variability. Some of these trends may have been influenced by the recent climatic changes over Europe.A set of qualitative and quantitative questionnaires on perceived risks and foreseen impacts of climate and climate change on agriculture in Europe was distributed to agro-climatic and agronomy experts in 26 countries. Europe was divided into 13 Environmental Zones (EZ). In total, we had 50 individual responses for specific EZ. The questionnaires provided both country and EZ specific information on the: (1) main vulnerabilities of crops and cropping systems under present climate; (2) estimates of climate change impacts on the production of nine selected crops; (3) possible adaptation options as well as (4) adaptation observed so far. In addition we focused on the overall awareness and presence of warning and decision support systems with relevance for adaptation to climate change.The results show that farmers across Europe are currently adapting to climate change, in particular in terms of changing timing of cultivation and selecting other crop species and cultivars. The responses in the questionnaires show a surprisingly high proportion of negative expectations concerning the impacts of climate change on crops and crop production throughout Europe, even in the cool temperate northern European countries.The expected impacts, both positive and negative, are just as large in northern Europe as in the Mediterranean countries, and this is largely linked with the possibilities for effective adaptation to maintain current yields. The most negative effects were found for the continental climate in the Pannonian zone, which includes Hungary, Serbia, Bulgaria and Romania. This region will suffer from increased incidents of heat waves and droughts without possibilities for effectively shifting crop cultivation to other parts of the years. A wide range of adaptation options exists in most European regions to mitigate many of the negative impacts of climate change on crop production in Europe. However, considering all effects of climate change and possibilties for adaptation, impacts are still mostly negative in wide regions across Europe.     

Focus on the application of crop science and biotechnology to climate change impact assessment and adaptation

Climate change is an apparent phenomenon affecting life in many aspects including crop production, so the assessment of its impact on crop production is urgently required to establish strategies and technologies to mitigate and adapt to climate change. Numerous efforts have been made to investigate the effects of climate change with emphases on elevated temperature and CO₂ on crops, to assess climate change impact on crop production, and to develop application technologies for coping with climate change in a sustainable manner. This special issue of JCSB contains a collection of peer-reviewed research articles covering the impact of microclimate conditions on crop production (4 papers), modeling approaches for impact assessment (3 papers), and applications of crop science and biotechnology for climate change adaptation (3 papers). It is believed that this special issue will help crop scientists broaden their knowledge and understanding on climate change issues in crop production and facilitate research in crop science and biotechnology in battling against climate change to sustain current crop production and increase future crop production to feed ever continuously increasing human population.     

Sustainability of dairy farming system in Tuscany in a changing climate

It is widely accepted that our climate is changing due to the increasing atmospheric concentrations of the ‘greenhouse gases’, and these changes may exercise strong impacts on different economic sectors. In particular for agricultural systems, such a change may have significant impacts on crop yield, cattle breeding and related management practices. Accordingly, the economic viability of agricultural production systems in future scenarios is a main concern especially for policy-making purposes. Up until now, the impact of climate change on agriculture has focused on change in crop yield, whereas a ‘holistic’ approach, considering both benefits (in terms of direct economic income) and detrimental environmental impacts of agricultural practices (soil loss, nitrogen leaching, water balance) has not been considered. On these premises, the objective of the present article was to assess agricultural sustainability on a farm level in Tuscany (central Italy) under the climate change regime, considering both conventional and organic farming systems (CFS and OFS, respectively). In particular, an ecological–economic optimisation model was run for both the present and future scenarios to perform an integrated assessment of sustainability of CFS and OFS on the case-study farm.     

气候变化适应及其影响因素研究——山东胶州湾地区居民的实证分析

为探索气候变化感知在适应决策过程中的作用机理,本研究以深度访谈数据为基础,基于“感知－适应”分析框架,采用二元Probit模型和泊松回归模型,分析胶州湾地区居民气候变化适应决策和适应选择的影响因素。研究表明,胶州湾地区绝大多数居民已经感知到气候变化,半数以上居民采取了一定的适应措施,大多数居民对适应措施效果的感到满意。居民采取适应措施介于0-4项,平均为1.07项,适应措施的普及率和多样化仍有提升空间。影响胶州湾地区居民气候变化适应决策与适应选择的主要因素存在一定差异性,但“居民对气候变化的感知”不论是对适应决策还是对适应选择的影响都较大,其中又以“对降水变化的感知”和“对气象灾害损失的感知”最为显著。     

DSSAT模型在中国农业与气候变化领域应用进展

为了掌握农业转移支持决策系统(Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer, DSSAT)模型在国内农业与气候变化领域的研究进展,更好地让模型在今后气候变化对农业生产影响评估和适应研究中应用,本文以近年来国内的研究和实践为基础,通过梳理模型应用的相关研究案例、方法和成果,从DSSAT 模型本地化适用性验证、数据库构建、参数订正和优化方案、气候变化影响评估及适应的应用等方面全面总结了模型的应用进展。结果表明：DSSAT模型在我国应用比较广泛,包括不同地区和不同作物之间;利用DSSAT模型研究气候变化对农业生产的影响的研究较多,研究结果比较丰富。但模型在应用中存在研究方法和结果比较分散、应用的作物种类有限、数据需求量大而实验数据有限等问题,这些都需要在今后的研究中不断完善解决。     

Migration‐affected change and vulnerability in rural Vanuatu

Migration is increasingly being promoted as a possible adaptive response to risks associated with climate change and other stresses. While migration may present an adaptation pathway in certain contexts, existing research fails to consider the ways in which migration could contribute to vulnerability in sending communities. This paper examines the impact of migration‐affected change on local vulnerability in Lamen Bay, Vanuatu. Qualitative methods, including interviews and focus groups with 58 individuals, were used to determine how migration interacts with the multiple stressors faced by the community. The results show that migration is likely to contribute to vulnerability in already vulnerable communities. In Lamen Bay, migration affects a number of contextual factors that influence exposure and the capacity to respond to change, including labour supply, food security, migrant attitudes, underdevelopment and institutional viability. These results suggest that development policy in Vanuatu needs to address existing vulnerabilities while offering the opportunity to migrate.     

Adaptation to climate change and climate variability in European agriculture: The importance of farm level responses

Climatic conditions and hence climate change influence agriculture. Most studies that addressed the vulnerability of agriculture to climate change have focused on potential impacts without considering adaptation. When adaptation strategies are considered, socio-economic conditions and farm management are often ignored, but these strongly influence current farm performance and are likely to also influence adaptation to future changes. This study analysed the adaptation of farmers and regions in the European Union to prevailing climatic conditions, climate change and climate variability in the last decades (1990–2003) in the context of other conditions and changes. We compared (1) responses in crop yields with responses in farmers’ income, (2) responses to spatial climate variability with responses to temporal climate variability, (3) farm level responses with regional level responses and (4) potential climate impacts (based on crop models) with actual climate impacts (based on farm accountancy data). Results indicated that impacts on crop yields cannot directly be translated to impacts on farmers’ income, as farmers adapt by changing crop rotations and inputs. Secondly, the impacts of climatic conditions on spatial variability in crop yields and farmers’ income, with generally lower yields in warmer climates, is different from the impacts of temporal variability in climate, for which more heterogeneous patterns are observed across regions in Europe. Thirdly, actual impacts of climate change and variability are largely dependent on farm characteristics (e.g. intensity, size, land use), which influence management and adaptation. To accurately understand impacts and adaptation, assessments should consider responses at different levels of organization. As different farm types adapt differently, a larger diversity in farm types reduces impacts of climate variability at regional level, but certain farm types may still be vulnerable. Lastly, we observed that management and adaptation can largely reduce the potential impacts of climate change and climate variability on crop yields and farmers’ income. We conclude that for reliable projections of the impacts of climate change on agriculture, adaptation should not be seen anymore as a last step in a vulnerability assessment, but as integrated part of the models used to simulate crop yields, farmers’ income and other indicators related to agricultural performance.     

Participatory design of farm level adaptation to climate risks in an arable region in The Netherlands

In the arable farming region Flevoland in The Netherlands climate change, including extreme events and pests and diseases, will likely pose risks to a variety of crops including high value crops such as seed potato, ware potato and seed onion. A well designed adaptation strategy at the farm level can reduce risks for farmers in Flevoland. Currently, most of the impact assessments rely heavily on (modelling) techniques that cannot take into account extreme events and pests and diseases and cannot address all crops, and are thus not suited as input for a comprehensive adaptation strategy at the farm level.To identify major climate risks and impacts and develop an adaptation measure portfolio for the most relevant risks we complemented crop growth modelling with a semi-quantitative and participatory approach, the Agro Climatic Calendar (ACC), A cost-benefit analysis and stakeholder workshops were used to identify robust adaptation measures and design an adaptation strategy for contrasting scenarios in 2050.For Flevoland, potential yields of main crops were projected to increase, but five main climate risks were identified, and these are likely to offset the positive impacts. Optimized adaptation strategies differ per scenario (frequency of occurrence of climate risks) and per farm (difference in economic loss). When impacts are high (in the +2 °C and A1 SRES scenario) drip irrigation was identified as the best adaptation measure against the main climate risk heat wave that causes second-growth in seed and ware potato. When impacts are smaller (the +1 °C and B2 SRES scenario), other options including no adaptation are more cost-effective.Our study shows that with relatively simple techniques such as the ACC combined with a stakeholder process, adaptation strategies can be designed for whole farming systems. Important benefits of this approach compared to modelling techniques are that all crops can be included, all climate factors can be addressed, and a large range of adaptation measures can be explored. This enhances that the identified adaptation strategies are recognizable and relevant for stakeholders.     

气候变化对农业的影响及应对

农业是气候变化最敏感脆弱的领域之一,直接受制于气候变化与气象要素。未来气候变化与气象要素时空性与振荡性的加剧,需对农业生产系统全方位影响做因地制宜、因时制宜全方位多层次应对。气候变化带来很多影响,需积极开展农业生产系统性减缓、适应应对策略和农业技术研究,全面理清农业应对气候变化的科学思绪和国家农业扶持政策。综合运用多学科理论方法,开展气候变化对农业生产影响机理和应对机制的系统构成和集成研究,更科学更合理地指导气候变化下的农业生产与积极有效应对,为农业可持续发展和粮食安全献策。     

气候变化导致的冬小麦产量波动及应对措施模拟

气候变化导致中国气候资源发生变化,从而影响中国未来的农业生产。利用区域气候模式模拟的未来两种温室气体排放方案A2和B2下的气候变化情景分别与CERES-小麦模式相连接,研究了气候变化下中国北方地区冬小麦长时间序列的产量波动及产量变率的可能变化,及采取两种适应措施后,产量波动及变率的相应变化。结果表明,A2和B2两种气候变化情景下,未来3个时段冬小麦平均产量和最高产量会有所增高,但产量的年际波动和变率也将明显加大,产量的年际变幅也会显著增加。采取适应措施后,调整播期和改变品种会减少产量的波动和变率,该地区播期适当提前,选用中熟品种是未来气候变化下的较好适应组合。     

Local expert experiences and perceptions of environmentally induced migration from Bangladesh to India

This study investigates local expert perceptions of the role of environmental factors, especially in terms of contemporary climate change, in population movements from Bangladesh to India. The aim is to delve into locally held understandings of the phenomenon and to gain a better understanding of these migration processes, which are actively intertwined with local experiences. Both Indian and Bangladeshi experts were interviewed using semi‐structured, in‐depth interviews in order to explore insights from locally held perceptions and understandings of contextual factors. In total, 10 Bangladeshi and 15 Indian experts were interviewed, covering different disciplines, sectors, regions and job types, together providing a more complete and grounded picture of views of environmentally induced migration in Bangladesh and India. The results show that climate change is perceived by local experts as one of the key factors influencing migration in Bangladesh, both internally and externally. The interviewees, however, placed environmentally induced migration in a broader context of labour and economic migration. In particular, migration for environmental reasons in Bangladesh was evident long before the emergence of climate change as an issue. According to the interviewed experts, this does not preclude increased environmentally induced migration within and from Bangladesh in the future, but its analyses ought to be placed in historical and economical contexts.     

Detection of major weather patterns reduces number of simulations in climate impact studies

With climate change posing a serious threat to food security, there has been an increased interest in simulating its impact on cropping systems. Crop models are useful tools to evaluate strategies for adaptation to future climate; however, the simulation process may be infeasible when dealing with a large number of G × E × M combinations. We proposed that the number of simulations could significantly be reduced by clustering weather data and detecting major weather patterns. Using 5, 10 and 15 clusters (i.e., years representative of each weather pattern), we simulated phenology, cumulative transpiration, heat-shock-induced yield loss (heat loss) and grain yield of four Australian cultivars across the Australian wheatbelt over a 30-year period under current and future climates. A strong correlation (r²≈1) between the proposed method and the benchmark (i.e., simulation of all 30 years without clustering) for phenology suggested that average duration of crop growth phases could be predicted with substantially fewer simulations as accurately as when simulating all 30 seasons. With mean absolute error of 0.64 days for phenology when only five clusters were identified, this method had a deviation considerably lower than the reported deviations of calibrated crop models. Although the proposed method showed higher deviations for traits highly sensitive to temporal climatic variability such as cumulative transpiration, heat loss and grain yield when five clusters were used, significantly strong correlations were achieved when 10 or 15 clusters were identified. Furthermore, this method was highly accurate in reproducing site-level impact of climate change. Less than 7% of site × general circulation model (GCM) combinations (zero for phenology) showed incorrect predication of the direction (+/−) of climate change impact when only five clusters were identified while the accuracy further increased at the regional level and with more clusters. The proposed method proved promising in predicting selected traits of wheat crops and can reduce number of simulations required to predict crop responses to climate/management scenarios in model-aided ideotyping and climate impact studies.     

气候变化对中国农业生产影响的模拟评价进展

气候变化对农业生产影响评价研究已成为众多学者和政府部门关注的热点问题。近几十年来,国内外学者从不同角度用不同方法开展了大量的气候变化对农业生产影响的评估研究。该文重点论述了利用模型模拟方法评价气候变化对中国农业生产、作物生长发育的影响,以及适应对策的最近研究进展,并简要地讨论了该领域研究存在的问题和今后有待进一步深入的研究内容。     

Implications of climate model biases and downscaling on crop model simulated climate change impacts

In estimating responses of crops to future climate realisations, it is necessary to understand and differentiate sources of uncertainty. This paper considers the specific aspect of input weather data quality from a Regional Climate Model (RCM) leading to differences in estimates made by three crop models. The availability of hindcast RCM estimates enables comparison of crop model outputs derived from observed and modelled weather data. Errors in estimating the past climate implies biases in future projections, and thus affect modelled crop responses. We investigate the complexities in using climate model projections representing different spatial scales within climate change impacts and adaptation studies. This is illustrated by simulating spring barley with three crop models run using site-specific observed (12 UK sites), original (50 × 50 km) and bias corrected downscaled (site-specific) hindcast (1960–1990) weather data from the HadRM3 RCM. Though the bias correction downscaling method improved the match between observed and hindcast data, this did not always translate into better matching of crop model estimates. At four sites the original HadRM3 data produced near identical mean simulated yield values as from the observed weather data, despite evaluated (observed-hindcast) differences. This is likely due to compensating errors in the input weather data and non-linearity in the crop models processes, making interpretation of results problematic. Understanding how biases in climate data manifest themselves in individual crop models gives greater confidence in the utility of the estimates produced using downscaled future climate projections and crop model ensembles. The results have implications on how future projections of climate change impacts are interpreted. Fundamentally, considerable care is required in determining the impact weather data sources have in climate change impact and adaptation studies, whether from individual models or ensembles.     

温带草原区气候变化及其对植被影响的研究进展

为了深入研究温带草原区气候变化及其对自然-社会-经济系统的影响、系统响应及适应,回顾了温带草原区气候主要要素（如温度、降雨）与旱灾的变化及未来区域气候趋势预测等方面的研究进展,重点总结了气候变化对温带草原植被影响的最新研究成果。研究发现,温带草原区呈现总体气温明显升高,降水区域差异显著,干旱年份增多、旱灾增加的变化趋势。受此影响,植物物候、生理特征、生产力、覆盖度等发生明显的变化。最后指出,在气候变化核心要素预测、研究的时空尺度等方面还不完善,今后应重视开展大尺度气候变化的时空格局,微地形下气候变化的时空异质性等方面研究,同时加强气候变化对草原植被的影响与生态系统响应以及气候变化适应等方面的研究。     

Potential impact of future climate change on sugarcane under dryland conditions in Mexico

Assessments of impacts of future climate change on widely grown sugarcane varieties can guide decision‐making and help ensure the economic stability of numerous rural households. This study assessed the potential impact of future climatic change on sugarcane grown under dryland conditions in Mexico and identified key climate factors influencing yield. The Agricultural Land Management Alternatives with Numerical Assessment Criteria (ALMANAC) model was used to simulate sugarcane growth and yield under current and future climate conditions. Management, soil and climate data from farm sites in Jalisco (Pacific Mexico) and San Luis Potosi (Northeastern Mexico) were used to simulate baseline yields. Baseline climate was developed with 30‐year historical data from weather stations close to the sites. Future climate for three decadal periods (2021–2050) was constructed by adding forecasted climate values from downscaled outputs of global circulation models to baseline values. Climate change impacts were assessed by comparing baseline yields with those in future decades under the A2 scenario. Results indicate positive impacts of future climate change on sugarcane yields in the two regions, with increases of 1%–13% (0.6–8.0 Mg/ha). As seen in the multiple correlation analysis, evapotranspiration explains 77% of the future sugarcane yield in the Pacific Region, while evapotranspiration and number of water and temperature stress days account for 97% of the future yield in the Northeastern Region. The midsummer drought (canicula) in the Pacific Region is expected to be more intense and will reduce above‐ground biomass by 5%–13% (0.5–1.7 Mg/ha) in July–August. Harvest may be advanced by 1–2 months in the two regions to achieve increases in yield and avoid early flowering that could cause sucrose loss of 0.49 Mg ha^?1 month^?1. Integrating the simulation of pest and diseases under climate change in crop modelling may help fine‐tune yield forecasting.