Spatiotemporal Distribution of Chinavia hilaris (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae) in Peanut-Cotton Farmscapes

The green stink bug, Chinavia hilaris (Say) (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae), is a pest of cotton in the southeastern United States, but little is known concerning its spatiotemporal distribution in agricultural farmscapes. Therefore, spatiotemporal distribution of C. hilaris in farmscapes where cotton fields adjoined peanut was examined weekly. Spatial patterns of C. hilaris counts were analyzed using SADIE (Spatial Analysis by Distance Indices) methodology. Interpolated maps of C. hilaris density were used to visualize abundance and distribution of C. hilaris in crops. For the six peanut-cotton farmscapes studied, the frequency of C. hilaris in cotton (94.8%) was significantly higher than in peanut (5.2%), and nymphs were rarely detected in peanut, indicating that peanut was not a source of C. hilaris into cotton. Significantly, aggregated spatial distributions were detected in cotton. Maps of local clustering indices depicted patches of C. hilaris in cotton, mainly at field edges including the peanut-to-cotton interface. Black cherry (Prunus serotina Ehrh.) and elderberry (Sambucus nigra subsp. canadensis [L.] R. Bolli) grew in habitats adjacent to crops, C. hilaris were captured in pheromone-baited stink bug traps in these habitats, and in most instances, C. hilaris were observed feeding on black cherry and elderberry in these habitats before colonization of cotton. Spatial distribution of C. hilaris in these farmscapes revealed that C. hilaris colonized cotton field edges near these two noncrop hosts. Altogether, these findings suggest that black cherry and elderberry were sources of C. hilaris into cotton. Factors affecting the spatiotemporal dynamics of C. hilaris in peanut-cotton farmscapes are discussed.     

Spatial and Temporal Dynamics of Stink Bugs in Southeastern Farmscapes

A 3-yr study (2009–2011) was conducted to examine the spatial and temporal dynamics of stink bugs in three commercial farmscapes. Study locations were replicated in South Carolina and Georgia, in an agriculturally diverse region known as the southeastern coastal plain. Crops included wheat, Triticum aestivum (L.), corn, Zea mays (L.), soybean, Glycine max (L.), cotton, Gossypium hirsutum (L.), and peanut, Arachis hypogaea (L.). Farmscapes were sampled weekly using whole-plant examinations for corn, with all other crops sampled using sweep nets. The predominant pest species of phytophagous stink bugs were the brown stink bug, Euschistus servus (Say), the green stink bug, Chinavia hilaris (Say), and the southern green stink bug, Nezara viridula (L.). Chi-square tests indicated a departure from a normal distribution in 77% of analyses of the variance to mean ratio, with 37% of slopes of Taylor’s power law and 30% of coefficient β of Iwao’s patchiness regression significantly greater than one, indicating aggregated distributions. Spatial Analyses by Distance IndicEs (SADIE) indicated aggregated patterns of stink bugs in 18% of year-end totals and 42% of weekly counts, with 80% of adults and nymphs positively associated using the SADIE association tool. Maximum stink bug densities in each crop occurred when the plants were producing fruit. Stink bugs exhibited greater densities in crops adjacent to soybean in Barnwell and Lee Counties compared with crops adjacent to corn or fallow areas. The diversity of crops and relatively small size of fields in the Southeast leads to colonization of patches within a farmscape. The ecological and management implications of the spatial and temporal distribution of stink bugs within farmscapes are discussed.     

Spatiotemporal Distribution of Two Euschistus spp. Stink Bugs (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae) in Southeastern Farmscapes

Stink bugs (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae) are ubiquitous, cryptic, phytophagous pests that are found in many crops. In agroecosystems, individuals disperse from adjacent noncrop hosts and tend to aggregate or cluster within fields. In this study, we characterized the distribution of Euschistus servus (Say) and Euschistus tristigmus (Say) (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae) over 2 yr at three southeastern United States farmscapes. Stink bugs were captured in pheromone-baited traps, and Spatial Analysis by Distance Indices (SADIE) used to identify the location of significant aggregations by habitat type and season. Euschistus servus adults were more likely to be captured in pecan orchards, cotton, other crops, or unmanaged habitats than in woodland habitats. Significant aggregations of E. servus were detected in a variety of habitats including pecan, corn, cotton, peanut, and tobacco, as well as fallow and hay fields, pastures, and hedgerows. Fewer adult E. tristigmus were captured than E. servus adults, and E. tristigmus adults were typically trapped and aggregated in woodland habitats. The resulting data provide an important understanding regarding the seasonal movement and relative abundance levels of stink bug populations, which are critical to the development of integrated pest management strategies.     

Host selection behavior of Bagrada hilaris (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae) on commercial cruciferous host plants

A series of host-choice tests were conducted under greenhouse conditions to evaluate the host selection behavior of the Bagrada bug, Bagrada hilaris on commercial cruciferous seedlings. In addition, a separate choice test was conducted to investigate the selection behavior of B. hilaris adults for broccoli plants of various growth stages: cotyledon, 1-leaf, 2-leaf, and 4-leaf plant stages. In comparing host selection among the commercial seedlings, observations on host attractiveness, host acceptance and host susceptibility of the cruciferous cultivars to B. hilaris adults were measured by recording numbers of adults per plant, the time at which feeding damage was first observed, and the time plant mortality occurred for each cultivar, respectively. Results showed that significantly more adult B. hilaris were attracted to a commercial radish cultivar than all other hosts, followed by red and green cabbage. Measurements of host acceptance varied among the cruciferous cultivars, however in terms of feeding damage, alyssum, arugula and broccoli appeared to be relatively less acceptable hosts for B. hilaris. Similarly, all host plants were susceptible to B. hilaris feeding damage and plant mortality varied among cultivars. In the broccoli growth-stage trials, experiments were designed in a similar fashion except that the experiment was conducted in plastic cages. A greater number of B. hilaris adults were attracted to 4-leaf-stage broccoli than other growth stages, but feeding damage was observed more quickly on cotyledon-stage plants. The implications of these findings for developing alternative pest management approaches for B. hilaris in commercial cruciferous crops are discussed.     

Gross Morphology of Diseased Tissues in Nezara viridula (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae) and Molecular Characterization of an Associated Microsporidian

Nezara viridula (L.) (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae), commonly known in the U.S. as the southern green stink bug (SGSB), is a cosmopolitan, highly polyphagous feeder that causes severe damage to a wide range of agronomically important crops such as fruit, vegetable, grain, tobacco, and cotton, throughout much of the United States, and is a global pest of considerable ecological, agricultural, and economical interest. During dissection of female Nz. viridula, conspicuous black and brown spots or lesions were observed on various internal organs. To determine the cause of these spots or lesions, tissues of fat body, spermatheca, ovaries, and ovulated eggs were collected from healthy and infected individuals. The gross morphology of the spots was characterized, and the microorganisms associated with the infection were identified by amplicon sequencing of the V4 region of the small subunit rRNA gene. The presence of a microsporidian pathogen Nosema maddoxi, Becnel, Solter, Hajek, Huang, Sanscrainte, & Estep (Microsporidia: Nosematidae) which has been observed on other species of stink bug, was evidenced for the first time. The characterization of the gross morphology of this associated microsporidian may enable more rapid determination of microsporidia infection in stink bug colonies and field populations.     

Brown Stink Bug (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae) Damage to Seedling Corn and Impact on Grain Yield

Brown stink bugs, Euschistus servus, are an important early-season pest of field corn in the southeastern United States. Feeding in the early stages of corn development can lead to a number of growth deformities and deficiencies and, ultimately, a reduction in yield. An observational and two experimentally manipulated trials were conducted in 2017 and 2018 to 1) determine optimal timing for assessing brown stink bug damage, 2) assess the level of damage from which yield compensation can occur, and 3) examine the relationship between brown stink bug density and early-season damage and yield. Fields were identified with infestations of brown stink bugs and a damage rating system for early stages of corn was established. Varying rates of brown stink bug densities were introduced using field cages and damage was assessed throughout the season. The density and duration of stink bug infestations were critical factors for damage potential, with each day of active feeding per plant resulting in a loss of ~14 kg/ha in yield. The level of damage in early stages of corn was categorized into easily identifiable groups, with only the most severe damage leading to a reduction in yield. Moderate and minimal feeding damage did not result in yield loss. This study emphasizes the need for early and frequent scouting of corn to determine the risk of damage and yield loss from brown stink bugs. Results from this study can be used to help develop management programs for brown stink bugs in the early vegetative stages of field corn.     

Susceptibility of Helicoverpa armigera from different host plants in northern China to Bacillus thuringiensis toxin Cry1Ac

Helicoverpa armigera (Hübner) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) is a serious pest of cotton and many other crops in northern China. To evaluate the contribution of alternative hosts as an effective refuge for transgenic cotton expressing the Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) Cry1Ac toxin, the susceptibility to this toxin was measured in progeny derived from field-collected H. armigera larvae and pupae from different hosts in the Xiajin’s region of the Shandong Province in northern China. During 2008-2010, progeny from a total of 258,56,184 and 160 single-pair crosses derived from wheat (first-generation), Bt cotton (second-generation), Bt cotton (third-generation), and corn (third-generation) were screened on Cry1Ac diets, respectively. Based on relative average development rates (RADR) of H. armigera larvae in these F₁ tests, the second and third-generation moths emerging from Bt cotton fields were more tolerant to the Bt toxin than the first and third-generation moths emerging from wheat and corn each year. These results suggest that there is significant variation in susceptibility to Bt toxins among H. armigera populations derived from different host crops. Alternate crops, such as corn, that maintain Bt susceptible populations of H. armigera could be used as refugia to minimize the evolution of resistance to Bt cotton.     

Economic injury levels for southern green stink bugs (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae) in R7 growth stage soybeans

Stink bugs, primarily southern green stink bug, Nezara viridula (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae), are a major pest complex of soybeans (Glycine max) throughout the southern United States. Densities sometimes peak during late R6 and R7 soybean growth stages when soybeans are approaching physiology maturity and the rate of injury from stink bugs is reduced. Field cage trials were conducted from 2005 to 2008 to examine the type and extent of soybean damage caused by southern green stink bugs during the R7 growth stage. The yield response was variable, but overall was not significant. The impact of southern green stink bugs on quality was more consistent. Test weight decreased, and heat damage and total damage increased as stink bug density increased. Based on these data, three economic injury models were developed using different assumptions. The model that assumes no yield loss, does not predict economic injury within the range of stink bug densities tested. However, if the statistically non-significant yield losses are accepted as real, then the models suggest that the southern green stink bug economic injury level and action threshold for soybeans during R7 stage is generally between nine and 15 stink bugs per row m.     

Aggregation and Association of NDVI,Boll Injury,and Stink Bugs in North Carolina Cotton

Sampling of herbivorous stink bugs in southeastern U.S. cotton remains problematic. Remote sensing was explored to improve sampling of these pests and associated boll injury. Two adjacent 14.5-ha cotton fields were grid sampled in 2011 and 2012 by collecting stink bug adults and bolls every week during the third, fourth, and fifth weeks of bloom. Satellite remote sensing data were collected during the third week of bloom during both years, and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) values were calculated. Stink bugs were spatially aggregated on the third week of bloom in 2011. Boll injury from stink bugs was spatially aggregated during the fourth week of bloom in 2012. The NDVI values were aggregated during both years. There was a positive association and correlation between stink bug numbers and NDVI values, as well as injured bolls and NDVI values, during the third week of bloom in 2011. During the third week of bloom in 2012, NDVI values were negatively correlated with stink bug numbers. During the fourth week of bloom in 2011, stink bug numbers and boll injury were both positively associated and correlated with NDVI values. During the fourth week of bloom in 2012, stink bugs were negatively correlated with NDVI values, and boll injury was negatively associated and correlated with NDVI values. This study suggests the potential of remote sensing as a tool to assist with sampling stink bugs in cotton, although more research is needed using NDVI and other plant measurements to predict stink bug injury.     

Arthropod Demography,Distribution, and Dispersion in a Novel Trap-Cropped Cotton Agroecosystem

Vernonia [Vernonia galamensis (Cass.) Less.] (Asterales: Asteraceae) was examined as a potential trap crop for the cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L., Malvales: Malvaceae) arthropod complex. Four rows of vernonia were embedded within a 96-row cotton field. The abundance of true bug pests, true bug predators, and spiders were determined by whole-plant and sweep net sampling procedures during the early, middle, and late phases of the cotton-growing season. The census data showed that the arthropods had a strong preference for the vernonia trap crop throughout the cotton-growing season. The movement of the arthropods from the trap crop into cotton was also measured using the protein immunomarking technique as a mark–capture procedure. The arthropods inhabiting the vernonia trap crop were marked directly in the field with a broadcast spray application of egg albumin (protein) during each phase of the study. In turn, the captured specimens were examined for the presence of the mark by an egg albumin-specific enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Very few marked specimens were captured beyond the vernonia trap crop 1, 3, and 6 d after each marking event. The arthropods’ strong attraction and fidelity to vernonia indicate that it could serve as a trap crop for cotton pests and a refuge for natural enemies.     

Relative Fitness of Helicoverpa armigera (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) on Seven Host Plants: A Perspective for IPM in Brazil

The cotton bollworm Helicoverpa armigera (Hübner) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) is a widespread pest of many cultivated and wild plants in Europe, Africa, Asia, and Australia. In 2013, this species was reported in Brazil, attacking various host crops in the midwestern and northeastern regions of the country and is now found countrywide. Aiming to understand the effects of different host plants on the life cycle of H. armigera, we selected seven species of host plants that mature in different seasons and are commonly grown in these regions: cotton (Gossypium hirsutum, “FM993”), corn (Zea mays, “2B587”), soybean (Glycine max, “99R01”), rattlepods (Crotalaria spectabilis), millet (Pennisetum glaucum, “ADR300”), sorghum (Sorghum bicolor, “AGROMEN70G35”), and cowpea (Vigna unguiculata, “SEMPRE VERDE”). The development time of immatures, body weight, survivorship, and fecundity of H. armigera were evaluated on each host plant under laboratory conditions. The bollworms did not survive on corn, millet, or sorghum and showed very low survival rates on rattlepods. Survival rates were highest on soybean, followed by cotton and cowpea. The values for relative fitness found on soybean, cotton, cowpea, and rattlepods were 1, 0.5, 0.43, and 0.03, respectively. Survivorship, faster development time, and fecundity on soybean, cotton, and cowpea were positively correlated. Larger pupae and greater fecundity were found on soybean and cotton. The results indicated that soybean, cotton, and cowpea are the most suitable plants to support the reproduction of H. armigera in the field.     

Effects of crop rotation of soybean with corn on severity of sudden death syndrome and population densities of Heterodera glycines in naturally infested soil

Sudden death syndrome, caused by Fusarium virguliforme, and the soybean cyst nematode, Heterodera glycines, combined cause the highest yield losses in soybean. The objective of this study was to determine the effectiveness of corn rotated annually with soybean on reducing severity of sudden death syndrome (SDS) and if such crop rotation is beneficial to soybean root health and thus improves disease management strategies. Experiments were conducted from 2003 to 2006 through two cycles of a corn–soybean rotation on two commercial fields in Indiana. With one exception, the rotation of soybean with corn did not provide yield benefits compared to monoculture of soybean. Severity of foliar and root symptoms of SDS in rotation plots were never less than in soybean monoculture plots. At one location, soybean monoculture resulted in suppression of SDS compared to the corn–soybean rotation, while H. glycines reproduced freely. At the other location, monoculture of soybean resulted in suppressiveness against H. glycines, while SDS was limited in all treatments. The data suggest that soil suppressiveness can independently impact the pathogens that are important in SDS development. Because H. glycines can increase SDS symptoms, its suppression may also reduce severity of SDS. Current production systems consisting of yearly rotation of soybean with corn are highly vulnerable to the development of severe soil-borne disease complexes. The simple year-to-year rotation of corn and soybean is not considered sustainable. While monoculture of soybean resulted in some disease suppression in these trials, reliance on monoculture may be detrimental due to other environmental considerations beyond the scope of these trials. Including other crops may be beneficial in improving the sustainability of soybean and corn production systems.     

Effect of tillage intensity on population densities of Heterodera glycines in intensive soybean production systems

The effects of tillage on Heterodera glycines, the most important yield-reducing pathogen of soybean in the U.S., were examined in a long-term tillage and crop sequence study initiated in 1975 on a mollisol at Purdue University. Population densities of H. glycines were monitored under corn–soybean rotation and soybean monoculture in 2003 and 2004. Tillage treatments included: (A) fall moldboard plow + spring secondary tillage; (B) fall chisel plow + spring secondary tillage; (C) ridge tillage; and (D) no-tillage. In both years in the rotational plots, final population densities of H. glycines were proportional to tillage intensity. Under both soybean and corn rotation crops, highest population densities were observed with plowing + secondary tillage and lowest population densities were detected under no-tillage. In 2004, population densities in monoculture soybean soil declined with depth intervals in layers of 0–10, 10–20, and 20–30-cm depth under no-till, but not in plowed plots. Multiple regression analysis determined that the stratification of nematode population densities was strongly correlated to penetrometer resistance and potassium concentration of the soil. Tillage seemed to affect population densities of H. glycines by modification of the soil physical parameters in corn–soybean rotation plots. Reducing tillage intensity was beneficial in reducing population densities of H. glycines in rotational soils. Thus, the choice of tillage system can reduce the risk for damage by this widely distributed pathogen.     

Current and Potential Role of Transgenic Crops in U.S. Agriculture

SUMMARY

Transgenic crop cultivars with resistance to insects, pathogens, and herbicides offer growers powerful new pest management tools. We reviewed the observed and potential farm-level impacts of transgenic cultivars, including those with regulatory approval and commercial availability as well as those still being researched and developed. Direct grower benefits, such as yield and production increases and decreased management costs, have led to rapid and extensive adoption of Bt corn and cotton, herbicide-resistant cotton, soybean, and canola, and virus-resistant papaya. Other transgenic crops, including Bt sweet corn and potato, and herbicide-resistant sugar beet and corn, have not been adopted despite strong agronomic and pest management performance, largely because growers fear there will be no market for their harvests. Despite inconsistent adoption of transgenic cultivars, demonstrated benefits of the technology encourage ongoing efforts to incorporate pest management traits into a wider variety of crops, including broccoli, tomato, lettuce, grape, citrus, pineapple, raspberry, peanut, wheat, barley, and rice. Potential impacts of these upcoming transgenic cultivars range from a decrease in weed management costs for lettuce and tomato growers, to the defense of stone fruit, grape, and citrus against devastating new pests.     

Comparative overwintering host range of three Adelphocoris species (Hemiptera: Miridae) in northern China

In northern China, Adelphocoris suturalis, Adelphocoris lineolatus and Adelphocoris fasciaticollis (Hemiptera: Miridae) are common pests of cotton and several other crops. These species have vastly diverse geographic distribution, seasonal dynamics and abundance, the underlying causal factors of which are poorly understood. In this study, the importance of a broad range of plant species as overwintering hosts for each Adelphocoris sp. was compared. Nymphal emergence from a total of 126 plant species was monitored at two distinct locations. The eggs of A. suturalis successfully eclosed from un-plowed cotton field soil and 115 plant species, primarily pastures, weeds and agricultural crops. The eggs of A. lineolatus successfully eclosed from 40 plant species, mainly pastures and weeds. Finally, A. fasciaticollis overwintered on 35 plant species, primarily tree species, weeds and agricultural crops. In conclusion, the most common and widely distributed mirid species, A. suturalis, overwintered on a comparatively broader range of plants compared to the other two species. These observations help to understand the differences in geographical distribution and abundance of the three Adelphocoris species, and constitute the basis for forecasting and pest management protocols for Adelphocoris spp. in China.     

Effect of green-belly stink bug,Dichelops furcatus (F.) on wheat yield and development

The green belly stink bug, Dichelops furcatus (F.) (Hemiptera: Heteroptera: Pentatomidae) is a pest of corn and soybean in southern Brazil. It also occurs on wheat, but information on its damage to this crop is limited. To determine the need for sustainable IPM programs, the impact of this bug on wheat production should be determined. Studies were conducted in the screenhouse with 1, 2 and 4 bugs caged for 16 days on single plants, cv. ‘BRS Parrudo’. During the vegetative period (plants ca. 25 cm tall), all infestation levels significantly reduced plant height and ear head length, but did not reduce grain yield. Feeding damage caused tissue necrosis on leaves. During the booting stage, grain yield was significantly reduced with 2 and 4 bugs per plant; ear heads were small, discolored and abnormally developed. In 2013 and 2014 field trials, plants were infested for 18 days with 2, 4 and 8 bugs per m² at vegetative, booting, and milky grain stage. At these infestation levels, there was no significant reduction in grain yield. There was a significant decrease in the number of normal seedlings resulting from seeds exposed to 8 bugs per m² at the milky grain stage. Results suggest that, in general, there is no need to control D. furcatus on wheat, unless numbers are ≥8 bugs per m² during reproductive period.     

Non-targeted insecticidal stress on the Neotropical brown stink bug Euschistus heros

Lethal and sublethal insecticide effects on non-targeted pest species are frequently neglected but have potential consequences for pest management and secondary pest outbreaks. Here, the lethal and demographic effects of four soybean insecticides (chlorantraniliprole, deltamethrin, pyriproxyfen, and spinosad, which are used against caterpillars, whiteflies, and green stink bugs) on the brown stink bug Euschistus heros (F.), the main stink bug species currently attacking Neotropical soybean fields, were assessed. Deltamethrin exhibited drastic acute mortality in adult females of E. heros with a median lethal time (LT₅₀) of 0.6 days, whereas pyriproxyfen treated females exhibited a survival similar to that of water-treated insects (LT₅₀ of 89 and 67 days, respectively). Chlorantraniliprole and spinosad-treated females exhibited intermediate survival with a TL₅₀ of 54 and 47 days, respectively. Further scrutiny of the three most selective insecticides (i.e., chlorantraniliprole, pyriproxyfen, and spinosad) using age-structured matrices to assess the demographic impact of these compounds under earlier exposure indicated that both pyriproxyfen and spinosad significantly reduced the population growth of the pest species by compromising the survival of eggs (<17% hatching) and 1st nymphs (LT₅₀ of 3 and 2 days, respectively) and fertility; these results were unlike those obtained for chlorantraniliprole- and water-treated controls, which exhibited less than 50% mortality during development. However, chlorantraniliprole significantly compromised the fertility of adult insects (>50% reduction compared with water-treated insects) to a greater extent than pyriproxyfen and spinosad, but without impairing insect population growth as much. Therefore, although pyriproxyfen and spinosad, besides deltamethrin, are not used to target the Neotropical brown stink bug, these insecticides adversely affected this pest species at the dose recommended for application on the label, thereby preventing its outbreak under such conditions.     

Demographic Parameters of Nezara viridula (Heteroptera: Pentatomidae) Reared on Two Diets Developed for Lygus spp.

Two artificial diets developed for rearing Lygus spp., a fresh yolk chicken egg based-diet (FYD) and a dry yolk chicken egg based-diet (DYD), were evaluated as an alternative food source for rearing the southern green stink bug, Nezara viridula (L.) (Heteroptera: Pentatomidae). Survival to adult was 97.3 and 74.67%, respectively, on the fresh and dry yolk diets. Insects fed FYD had 100% survival of nymphs from first through fourth instars. Adult development was significantly shorter on FYD (30.37 ± SE 0.30 d) as compared with DYD (32.77 ± SE 0.16 d). Increased male and female longevity, higher fecundity, and larger egg mass sizes were also observed with N. viridula-fed FYD. However, fertility and hatchability was higher on DYD. A complete cohort life table was constructed to describe the development of N. viridula on both diets.     

Development of Temporal Modeling for Forecasting and Prediction of the Incidence of Lychee,Tessaratoma papillosa (Hemiptera: Tessaratomidae), Using Time-Series (ARIMA) Analysis

The most destructive enemy of the lychee, Litchi chinensis Sonn. (Sapindales: Sapindaceae), in India is a stink bug, Tessaratoma papillosa (Drury) (Hemiptera: Tessaratomidae). The population of T. papillosa on lychee trees varied from 1.43 ± 0.501 to 9.85 ± 3.924 insects per branch in this study. An increase in the temperature and a decrease in the relative humidity during summer months (April to July) favor the population buildup of T. papillosa. A forecasting model to predict T. papillosa incidences in lychee orchards was developed using the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model of time-series analysis. The best-fit model for the T. papillosa incidence was ARIMA (1,1), where the P-value was significant at 0.01. The highest T. papillosa incidences were predicted for April in 2010, January in 2011, May in 2012, and February in 2013. A model based on time series offers longer-term forecasting. The forecasting model, ARIMA (1,1), developed in this study will predict T. papillosa incidences in advance, thus providing functional guidelines for effective planning of timely prevention and control measures.