Incorporation of temperature and solar radiation thresholds to modify a lettuce downy mildew warning system

ABSTRACT The effect of temperature on infection of lettuce by Bremia lactucae was investigated in controlled environment studies and in the field. In controlled conditions, lettuce seedlings inoculated with B. lactucae were incubated at 15, 20, 25, or 30 degrees C during a 4-h wet period immediately after inoculation or at the same temperatures during an 8-h dry period after the 4-h postinoculation wet period at 15 degrees C. High temperatures during wet and dry periods reduced subsequent disease incidence. Historical data from field studies in 1991 and 1992, in which days with or without infection had been identified, were analyzed by comparing average air temperatures during 0600 to 1000 and 1000 to 1400 Pacific standard time (PST) between the two groups of days. Days without infection had significantly higher temperatures (mean 21.4 degrees C) than days with infection (20.3 degrees C) during 1000 to 1400 PST (P < 0.01) but not during 0600 to 1000 PST. Therefore, temperature thresholds of 20 and 22 degrees C for the 3-h wet period after sunrise and the subsequent 4-h postpenetration period, respectively, were added to a previously developed disease warning system that predicts infection when morning leaf wetness lasts >/=4 h from 0600 PST. No infection was assumed to occur if average temperature during these periods exceeded the thresholds. Based on nonlinear regression and receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, the leaf wetness threshold of the previous warning system was also modified to >/=3-h leaf wetness (>/=0900 PST). Furthermore, by comparing solar radiation on days with infection and without infection, we determined that high solar radiation during 0500 to 0600 PST in conjunction with leaf wetness ending between 0900 and 1000 PST was associated with downy mildew infection. Therefore, instead of starting at 0600 PST, the calculation of the 3-h morning leaf wetness period was modified to start after sunrise, defined as the hour when measured solar radiation exceeded 8 W m(-2) (or 41 mumol m(-2) s(-1) for photon flux density). The modified warning system was compared with the previously developed system using historical weather and downy mildew data collected in coastal California. The modified system was more conservative when disease potential was high and recommended fewer fungicide applications when conditions were not conducive to downy mildew development.     

Modeling Infection of Strawberry Flowers by Botrytis cinerea Using Field Data

ABSTRACT The incidence of strawberry flower infection by Botrytis cinerea was monitored in unsprayed field plots in three successive years together with meteorological data and numbers of conidia in the air. There were large differences in conidia numbers and weather conditions in the 3 years. Three sets of models were derived to relate inoculum and weather conditions to the incidence of flower infection; by inoculum only, by weather variables only, and by both inoculum and weather variables. All the models fitted the observed incidence satisfactorily. High inoculum led to more infection. Models using weather variables only gave more accurate predictions than models using inoculum only. Models using both weather variables and inoculum gave the best predictions, but the improvement over the models based on weather variables only was small. The relationship between incidence of flower infection and inoculum and weather variables was generally consistent between years. Of the weather variables examined, daytime vapor pressure deficit and nighttime temperature had the greatest effect in determining daily incidence of flower infection. Infection was favored by low day vapor pressure deficit and high night temperature. The accuracy and consistency of the weather-based models suggest they could be explored to assist in management of gray mold.     

Quantitative Modeling of the Effects of Temperature and Inoculum Density of Fusarium oxysporum f. sp. ciceris Races 0 and 5 on Development of Fusarium Wilt in Chickpea Cultivars

ABSTRACT Races 0 (Foc-0) and 5 (Foc-5) of Fusarium oxysporum f. sp. ciceris differ in virulence and induce yellowing or wilting syndrome, respectively, in chickpea. We modeled the combined effects of soil temperature and inoculum density of Foc-0 and Foc-5 on disease developed in chickpea cvs. P-2245 and PV-61 differing in susceptibility to those races, using quantitative nonlinear models. Disease development over time in the temperature range of 10 to 30 degrees C and inoculum densities between 6 and 8,000 chlamydospores g(1) of soil was described by the Weibull function. Four response variables (the reciprocal incubation period, the final disease intensity, the standardized area under the disease progress curve, and the intrinsic rate of disease development) characterized the disease development. Response surface models that expressed the combined effect of inoculum density and temperature were developed by substituting the intrinsic rate of disease development in the Weibull or exponential functions with a beta function describing the relationship of response variables to temperature. The models estimated 22 to 26 degrees C as the most favorable soil temperature for infection of cvs. P-2245 and PV-61 by Foc-5, and 24 to 28 degrees C for infection of cv. P-2245 by Foc-0. At 10 degrees C, no disease developed except in cv. P-2245 inoculated with Foc-5. At optimum soil temperature, maximum disease intensity developed with Foc-5 and Foc-0 at 6 and 50 chlamydospores g(1) of soil respectively, in cv. P-2245, and with Foc-5 at 1,000 chlamydospores g(1) of soil in cv. PV-61. The models were used to construct risk threshold charts that can be used to estimate the potential risk of Fusarium wilt epidemics in a geographical area based on soil temperature, the race and inoculum density in soil, and the level of susceptibility of the chickpea cultivar.     

Modelling the effect of cuticular crack surface area and inoculum density on the probability of nectarine fruit infection by Monilinia laxa

The effects of cuticular crack surface area and inoculum density on the infection of nectarine fruits by conidia of Monilinia laxa were studied using artificial inoculations with conidial suspensions and dry airborne conidia during the 2004 and 2005 seasons, respectively. Additionally, the effect of ambient humidity on fruit infection was evaluated in the 2005 experiment. An exploratory analysis indicated that (i) ambient humidity did not significantly explain the observed variability of data, but that (ii) the incidence of fruit infection increased both with increasing inoculum density and increasing surface area of cuticular cracks. The product of these two variables represented the inoculum dose in the cracks, and was used as a predictor of fruit infection in the model. Natural infection in the orchard was observed to increase throughout the season in both 2004 and 2005. The relationship between the probability of fruit infection by M. laxa and the artificially inoculated dose in the cuticular cracks was well described by a logistic regression model once natural inoculum density was taken into account (pseudo R² = 65%). This function could be helpful for estimating the risk of fruit infection at harvest based on fruit size and natural inoculum density.     

Influence of Light, Relative Humidity, and Maturity of Populations on Discharge of Ascospores of Venturia inaequalis

ABSTRACT Ascospore release in 20 populations of Venturia inaequalis was generally suppressed in wind tunnel tests during darkness and simulated rain, but the following relieved this suppression: (i) exposure to low relative humidity during simulated rain and (ii) protracted incubation of leaf samples and the consequent senescence of the pathogen population. No counterpart to (i) was observed under orchard conditions. Although V. inaequalis also released a high percentage of ascospores during darkness in field studies under simulated rain late in the season of ascospore release, this phenomenon has not been reported for natural rain events. A threshold value of 0.5 muW/cm(2) at 725 nm was identified as the minimum stimulatory light intensity. Ascospore release increased with increasing light intensity from 0.5 to 5.2 muW/cm(2) at 725 nm. There was also an intrinsic increase in ascospore release as duration of rain increased. In orchards, the combined impact of both processes is probably responsible for a delay in reaching peak ascospore release at several hours after sunrise. Ascospore release during darkness will generally constitute a small proportion of the total available supply of primary inoculum. Significant ascospore release, and therefore infection periods, can be assumed to begin shortly after sunrise, when rain begins at night in orchards with low potential ascospore dose (PAD). A PAD level of 1,000 ascospores per m(2) of orchard floor per season is suggested as a threshold, above which the night-released ascospores should not be ignored.     

Development of ZWIPERO, A Model Forecasting Sporulation and Infection Periods of Onion Downy Mildew based on Meteorological Data

The weather-based forecasting model ZWIPERO was developed by the German Weather Service and determines the risk of sporulation and infection of Peronospora destructor quantitatively based on actual as well as predicted weather data (temperature, relative humidity, leaf wetness, precipitation). The model allows precise planning of disease monitoring and infection-related application of fungicides. ZWIPERO is a more complex mathematical model than the previously published models for downy mildew. In order to operate ZWIPERO independently of the actual field location and season, the time of sunrise and sunset of the location are exactly determined by a subroutine. Another subroutine provides simulated microclimatic input variables based on local production data as well as actual and hourly predicted (up to 4 days) standard weather data. Starting at the time of 'sunrise + 7 h', ZWIPERO calculates the number of sporangia produced, the time of onset of sporangia release, as well as the number of infections possible and the number of sporangia which may survive the day for each 24-h time step. Field evaluations of sporulation periods of downy mildew showed that the simulated micrometeorological input variables are reliable. As the actual plant development, the susceptibility and the disease incidence in the field are not taken into account, ZWIPERO has to be considered primarily as a decision support system for extension services and growers.     

Forecasting Infections of the Leaf Curl Disease on Peaches Caused by Taphrina deformans

An Israeli model forecasting leaf curl disease on peaches caused by Taphrina deformans was validated in the Emilia-Romagna region of northern Italy, during a three-year period (1996–1998), in 13 cases (year × location × cultivar). When the peach trees are susceptible to infection, the model uses mathematical functions to calculate the risk of infection on the basis of weather conditions (daily rainfall greater than 10mm, and maximum air temperature greater than 5°C), and it forecasts periods of possible symptom appearance based on the length of incubation. Peach trees became susceptible to infection between the end of January and mid March, when the first leaf buds attained phenological stage C, i.e. appearance of leaf apex. The trees remained susceptible for at least 9 weeks: the last infection occurred in mid-May.Since most of the leaf curl onsets observed in the orchards fell within the range of model forecasts, the model proved to be accurate in signalling both the first seasonal infection and repeated infections during the primary inoculum season. Few errors occurred, caused either by conditions of rainfall and temperature lower than the thresholds fixed in the model, or by discrepancies between forecast and actual length of incubation. Infection occurred also at 3.1–3.5°C, and with 9.6mm rainfall. Thus, thresholds should not be accepted too rigorously, and perhaps temperature should not be considered as a limiting factor for infection under the conditions of the present work. The length of incubation showed high variability: it was 23 days long on average, with a 95% confidence interval ranging from 20 to 27 days, and extreme values of 9 and 33 days.     

南疆沙漠腹地地温变化特征

利用塔中气象站三年的气象数据,分析了塔中地温的变化特征。结果显示:塔中0～40cm地温年变化规律显著,温度自1月开始迅速上升,在7月达到最高值,达30℃以上,其后又持续下降,冬季最低;80cm以下地温变化平缓,最高、最低温度出现月份逐渐后延,年振幅渐小;在典型晴天、阴天、沙尘天气时,表层地温都是日出前后最低,日出后迅速上升,至午后16时左右达最大值,其后迅速下降,于日落时降至一低值,并在夜间继续缓慢下降;四季0～80cm各层地温夏季﹥秋季﹥春季﹥冬季;天气对地温的影响主要体现在地表温度和浅层地温,至40cm及以下各层几乎无影响,日变化与典型晴天规律相同;阴天和浮尘对地温的影响较小,扬沙和沙尘暴天气对地温影响较大,其影响随深度增加而渐小;各层地温的平均日变化曲线近于正弦曲线,随深度增加地温特征线趋于平缓,极值出现时间逐渐后延。塔中地温的年际、日内变化的逐层性,与沙漠表面风成沙的物理属性有关。     

The influence of inoculum concentration, relative humidity, and temperature on infection of greenhouse tomatoes by Botrytis cinerea

Botrytis cinerea causes serious crop losses in greenhouse tomato crops through infection of flowers and stem wounds. Experiments were carried out to determine the effects of inoculum concentration, relative humidity (RH), and temperature at these two infection sites. Infection of permanent flower parts increased as a function of inoculum concentration and both length of exposure to high RH (approximately 100% for 0–36 h) and specified continuous RH (56–100%). A low level of infection was still evident under continuous 56% RH. Interruption of periods of high RH with breaks of low RH did not reduce infection. Infection of stem wounds was less dependent on inoculum concentration or RH. Factorial combinations of inoculum concentration, RH, and temperature produced significant interactions. Higher temperature increased infection of flowers but reduced infection of stem wounds. The main implications for control in commercial crops are as follows. Lowering the aerial spore concentration by maintaining the disease at a low level will reduce flower infection. Lowering RH will reduce but not eliminate flower infection but will have only a small effect on stem infection. Raising the temperature (from 15 to 25°C) will reduce stem infection, and whilst flower infection increases, this is counteracted by increased flower production and a decrease in the proportion of infections reaching the peduncle and stem.     

Modelling and forecasting epidemics of apple powdery mildew (Podosphaera leucotricha)

A model developed to simulate epidemics of powdery mildew on vegetative shoots of apple generates two types of output. Firstly, it forecasts disease severity (percentage of host tissue infected) by incorporating effects on disease development of the amount of healthy susceptible tissue and current infectious (sporulating) disease, the level of initial inoculum (overwintered 'primary' mildew) and weather conditions. The effects of weather variables are considered on only two aspects of the fungal life cycle: initial spore germination and the subsequent development during the incubation period. Secondly, the model generates indices of the relative favourability of weather conditions on disease development by incorporating effects of weather on conidial production/dispersal and germination. On each day, forecasts of the (relative) severity of new infection and total current infectious disease are given for both types of output. The model was evaluated by comparing its predictions with the mildew epidemics observed in two unsprayed orchards over four years. In all the years, the temporal patterns of the predicted and the observed disease were generally similar. The pattern of the disease severity forecasts was marginally closer to the observed than that derived from two weather indices. Potential roles of the model in practical management of apple powdery mildew are discussed.     

Simulation studies on epidemics of wheat stripe rust (Puccinia striiformis) on slow-rusting cultivars and analysis of effects of resistance components

Simulation studies were conducted to analyse the effects of components of slow-rusting resistance to stripe rust ( Puccinia striiformis ) on wheat varieties using the Slow-Rusting Epidemic Simulation Model (SRESM). Five components, infection efficiency (IE), sporulation capacity (SC), lesion expansion rate (LE), latent period (LP) and infectious period (IP) were studied for their importance in epidemics under various weather and pathogen inoculum conditions. Simulation outputs were analysed statistically. The LE, IE and SC were found to be the most important components. However, final disease was more strongly influenced by weather and initial disease. The Integrated Resistance Index (IRJ), which combines the effects of resistance components, was used to predict the effects of various combinations of components in different types of weather and at different levels of initial disease intensity. These predictions provide guidelines for plant breeders and are useful in selecting varieties for specific regions.     

田间空气中小麦白粉菌分生孢子的动态监测研究

2012和2013两年度采用Burkard定容式孢子捕捉器,对田间空气中小麦白粉病菌分生孢子的监测结果表明,小麦冠层内、外白粉菌分生孢子浓度存在显著的正相关性,冠层内的白粉菌分生孢子浓度明显高于冠层外;田间空气中分生孢子的浓度逐渐升高,到小麦灌浆期达到最大值之后逐渐降低。时间序列分析结果表明,两年度田间空气中白粉菌分生孢子浓度均符合ARIMA(1,1,0)模型且与温度有显著的相关性,建立了基于温度的白粉菌分生孢子浓度预测模型,模型回归效果均达到了显著水平。研究结果发现,田间白粉病病情与空气中病菌分生孢子和关键气象因子具有显著相关性,并在此基础上分别建立了基于空气中分生孢子浓度,以及基于分生孢子浓度和气象因子的田间白粉病病情预测模型,其中基于分生孢子浓度的预测模型普适性要优于基于分生孢子浓度和气象因子的预测模型,可以用来预测田间小麦白粉病的发生流行程度。     

Modelling the effect of temperature on the development of Polymyxa betae

Polymyxa betae is the fungal vector of beet necrotic yellow vein virus (BNYVV), which is the causal agent of the sugar beet disease rhizomania. The within-season dynamics of the fungus are a crucial factor in the occurrence and severity of rhizomania. Late infection of the host by viruliferous fungi enables host resistance to the virus to develop and hence limits crop damage. A previously published mechanistic model for the dynamics of Polymyxa betae is extended in this paper to incorporate the effect of temperature on the germination of resting spores, and on the latent periods between infection and the production of secondary zoospores and new resting spores. It is shown that, for UK temperature conditions, the effect of sowing date on infection is greater than that of year-to-year variations in temperature associated with a single representative sowing date. The variation in inoculum build-up predicted when temperature data from a range of soil types were used in the model agreed with field observations, where higher levels of infection are observed on sandy soils than on black fen peat soils. The difference was most distinct when daily maximum soil temperature values were used to drive the model rather than rolling 24-hour average values.     

Primary Infection, Lesion Productivity, and Survival of Sporangia in the Grapevine Downy Mildew Pathogen Plasmopara viticola

ABSTRACT Several aspects of grapevine downy mildew epidemiology that are fundamental to model predictions were investigated. Simple rainfall-, temperature-, and phenology-based thresholds (rain > 2.5 mm; temperature > 11 degrees C; and phenology > Eichorn and Lorenz [E&L] growth stage 12) were evaluated to forecast primary (oosporic) infection by Plasmopara viticola. The threshold was consistent across 15 years of historical data on the highly susceptible cv. Chancellor at one site, and successfully predicted the initial outbreak of downy mildew for 2 of 3 years at three additional sites. Field inoculations demonstrated that shoot tissue was susceptible to infection as early as E&L stage 5, suggesting that initial germination of oospores, rather than acquisition of host susceptibility, was probably the limiting factor in the initiation of disease outbreaks. We also found that oospores may continue to germinate and cause infections throughout the growing season, in contrast to the widely-held assumption that the supply of oospores is depleted shortly after bloom. Lesion productivity (sporangia/lesion) did not decline with age of a lesion in the absence of suitable weather to induce sporulation. However, the productivity of all lesions declined rapidly through repeated cycles of sporulation. Extremely high temperatures (i.e., one day reaching 42.8 degrees C) had an eradicative effect under vineyard conditions, and permanently reduced sporulation from existing (but not incubating) lesions to trace levels, despite a later return to weather conducive to sporulation. In fair weather, most sporangia died sometime during the daylight period immediately following their production. However, over 50% of sporangia still released zoospores after 12 to 24 h of exposure to overcast conditions.     

PC-based disease warning systems for use by apple growers1

To protect apple orchards from diseases efficiently, growers need farm-based rather than regional disease warning systems. This paper describes three PC-based systems from Horticulture Research International (GB). These systems, VENTEM, PODEM and NECTEM, provide warnings in the form of infection alerts and disease forecasts of Venturia inaequalis (scab), Podosphaera leucotricha (powdery mildew) and Nectria galligenu (European canker and fruit rot), respectively. The modular structure, operation and practical implementation of these systems are described and compared. A major input is weather data recorded automatically by Metos weather stations sited on farms. Each system has a weather-driven dynamic model simulating inoculum production and the infection process. The systems use information on quantity of inoculum, cultivar susceptibility and other host factors to produce disease forecasts which are specific to individual orchard blocks and cultivars.     

Analysis of leaf wetness in the rice crop caused by dew formation—a simulation study1

Daily dew amount and dew duration were simulated using a multi-layer energy balance model. Two simplifications were made in the model and validated. First, the simulation results showed that daily weather data instead of hourly weather data could be used to simulate dew formation in crops, which was validated by measurements for short grass vegetation. Second, estimation of the total daily dew period was shown to be possible on the basis of nightly dew formation only. This simplification was possible on the basis of the existence of a linear relationship between the dew period after sunrise on the one hand and the dew amount at sunrise on the other. The multi-layer crop microweather model becomes much smaller and simpler (and is then called the SIMPLE model) if only night dew formation is simulated. Our results will make it possible to incorporate the SIMPLE model into a fungal disease epidemic model and a basic crop growth model.     

A Distributed Lag Analysis of the Relationship Between Gibberella zeae Inoculum Density on Wheat Spikes and Weather Variables

ABSTRACT In an effort to characterize the association between weather variables and inoculum of Gibberella zeae in wheat canopies, spikes were sampled and assayed for pathogen propagules from plots established in Indiana, North Dakota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, South Dakota, and Manitoba between 1999 and 2005. Inoculum abundance was quantified as the daily number of colony forming units per spike (CFU/spike). A total of 49 individual weather variables for 24-h periods were generated from measurements of ambient weather data. Polynomial distributed lag regression analysis, followed by linear mixed model analysis, was used to (i) identify weather variables significantly related to log-transformed CFU/spike (the response variable; Y), (ii) determine the time window (i.e., lag length) over which each weather variable affected Y, (iii) determine the form of the relationship between each weather variable and Y (defined in terms of the polynomial degree for the relationship between the parameter weights for the weather variables and the time lag involved), and (iv) account for location-specific effects and random effects of years within locations on the response variable. Both location and year within location affected the magnitude of Y, but there was no consistent trend in Y over time. Y on each day was significantly and simultaneously related to weather variables on the day of sampling and on the 8 days prior to sampling (giving a 9-day time window). The structural relationship corresponded to polynomial degrees of 0, 1, or 2, generally showing a smooth change in the parameter weights and time lag. Moisture- (e.g., relative humidity-) related variables had the strongest relationship with Y, but air temperature- and rainfall-related variables also significantly affected Y. The overall marginal effect of each weather variable on Y was positive. Thus, local weather conditions can be utilized to improve estimates of spore density on wheat spikes around the time of flowering.     

Influence of Temperature and Inoculum Density of Fusarium oxysporum f. sp. ciceris on Suppression of Fusarium Wilt of Chickpea by Rhizosphere Bacteria

The effects of temperature and inoculum density of Fusarium oxysporum f. sp. ciceris race 5 on suppression of Fusarium wilt in chickpea (Cicer arietinum) cv. PV 61 by seed and soil treatments with rhizobacteria isolated from the chickpea rhizosphere were studied in a model system. Disease development over a range of temperatures (20, 25, and 30 degrees C) and inoculum densities (25 to 1,000 chlamydospores per gram of soil) was described by the Gompertz model. The Gompertz relative rate of disease progress and final amount of disease increased exponentially and monomolecularly, respectively, with increasing inoculum densities. Disease development was greater at 25 degrees C compared with 20 and 30 degrees C. At 20 and 30 degrees C, disease development was greater at 250 to 1,000 chlamydospores per gram of soil compared with 25 to 100 chlamydospores per gram of soil. At 25 degrees C, increasing inoculum densities of the pathogen did not influence disease. Nineteen Bacillus, Paenibacillus, Pseudomonas, and Stenotrophomonas spp. out of 23 bacterial isolates tested inhibited F. oxysporum f. sp. ciceris in vitro. Pseudomonas fluorescens RGAF 19 and RG 26, which did not inhibit the pathogen, showed the greatest Fusarium wilt suppression. Disease was suppressed only at 20 or 30 degrees C and at inoculum densities below 250 chlamydospores per gram of soil. Bacterial treatments increased the time to initial symptoms, reduced the Gompertz relative rate of disease progress, and reduced the overall amount of disease developed.     

Spatiotemporal dynamics and modelling support the case for area-wide management of citrus greasy spot in a Brazilian smallholder farming region

Citrus greasy spot (CGS), caused by Zasmidium citri, induces premature defoliation and yield loss in Citrus spp. The epidemiology of CGS is well understood in high humidity areas, but remains unaddressed in Brazil, despite differing climatic conditions and disease management practices. The spatiotemporal dynamics of CGS were characterized in the Recôncavo of Bahia (Brazil) at four hierarchical levels (quadrant, plant, grove, and region). A survey conducted in 19 municipalities found the disease to be present throughout the region with an incidence of 100% in groves and plants, and higher than 70% on leaves. Index of dispersion (D) values suggest the spatial pattern of units with symptoms lies between random and regular. This was confirmed by the parameters of the binary power law for plants and their quadrants (log[A] < 0 and b < 1). No consistent differences were observed in the disease incidence at different plant heights. We introduce a compartmental model synthesizing CGS epidemiology. The collected data allow such a model to be parameterized, albeit with some ambiguity over the proportion of new infections that result from inoculum produced within the grove versus external sources of infection. By extending the model to include two populations of growers—those who control and those who do not—coupled by airborne inoculum, we investigate likely performance of cultural controls accessible to citrus growers in northeastern Brazil. The results show that control via removal of fallen leaves can be very effective. However, successful control is likely to require area-wide strategies in which a large proportion of growers actively manage disease.