Foot and mouth disease in sheep and goats

Small ruminants play an important role in the epidemiology and transmission of Foot-and-Mouth Disease (FMD). The main reasons therefore are: FMD is difficult to diagnose as infected sheep not always show typical clinical symptoms or as the cardinal signs mimicked other diseases. Sheep and goats may be carriers. Infected herds which practice transhumance or are nomadic can spread the infection to other herds long before diagnose of the disease is established. Shipping and trade with live sheep and goats is much more common world wide than in other FMD susceptible species. Lack of registration of all sheep and goat herds (especially of small hobby herds) and lack of individual identifications signs (ear tags) may result in incomplete control measurements under FMD conditions. Basing on published experiences with the actual FMD epidemic in the UK and basing on the own experiences with the restrictions to prevent from spreading of the FMD from the UK to Germany suggestions for future disease control are made.     

Space-time interaction as an indicator of local spread during the 2001 FMD outbreak in the UK

During the 2001 FMD outbreak in the UK, decisions on the level of implementation of control measures were supported by predictive models. Models were mainly used as macro-level tools to predict the behaviour of the disease in the whole country rather than at the local level. Here we explore the use of the magnitude and characteristics of the space-time interaction as an indicator of local spread and, indirectly, of the effectiveness of control measures aimed at reducing short-range transmission during the course of a major livestock disease epidemic. The spatiotemporal evolution patterns are described in the four main clusters that were observed during the outbreak by means of the hazard rate and space-time K-function (K(s,t)). For each local outbreak, the relative measure D(0)(s,t), derived from K(s,t), which represents the excess risk attributable to the space-time interaction was calculated for consecutive 20-day temporal windows to represent the dynamics of the space-time interaction. The dynamics of the spatiotemporal interaction were very different among the four local clusters, suggesting that the intensity of local spread, and therefore the effectiveness of control measures, markedly differed between local outbreaks. The large heterogeneity observed in the relative impact of being close in time and space to an infected premises suggests that the decision making in relation to control of the outbreak would have benefited from indicators of local spread which could be used to complement global predictive modelling results. Despite its limitations, our results suggest that the real-time analysis of the space-time interaction can be a valuable decision support tool during the course of a livestock disease epidemic.     

Simulating the spread of classical swine fever virus between a hypothetical wild-boar population and domestic pig herds in Denmark

Denmark has no free-range wild-boar population. However, Danish wildlife organizations have suggested that wild boar should be reintroduced into the wild to broaden national biodiversity. Danish pig farmers fear that this would lead to a higher risk of introduction of classical swine fever virus (CSFV), which could have enormous consequences in terms of loss of pork exports. We conducted a risk assessment to address the additional risk of introducing and spreading CSFV due to the reintroduction of wild boar. In this paper, we present the part of the risk assessment that deals with the spread of CSFV between the hypothetical wild-boar population and the domestic population. Furthermore, the economic impact is assessed taking the perspective of the Danish national budget and the Danish pig industry. We used InterSpreadPlus to model the differential classical swine fever (CSF) risk due to wild boar. Nine scenarios were run to elucidate the effect of: (a) presence of wild boar (yes/no), (b) locations for the index case (domestic pig herd/wild-boar group), (c) type of control strategy for wild boar (hunting/vaccination) and (d) presence of free-range domestic pigs. The presence of free-range wild boar was simulated in two large forests using data from wildlife studies and Danish habitat data. For each scenario, we estimated (1) the control costs borne by the veterinary authorities, (2) the control-related costs to farmers and (3) the loss of exports associated with an epidemic. Our simulations predict that CSFV will be transmitted from the domestic pig population to wild boar if the infected domestic pig herd is located close to an area with wild boar (<5 km). If an outbreak begins in the wild-boar population, the epidemic will last longer and will occasionally lead to several epidemics because of periodic transfer of virus from groups of infected wild boar to domestic pig herds. The size and duration of the epidemic will be reduced if there are no free-range domestic pig herds in the area with CSF-infected wild boar. The economic calculations showed that the total national costs for Denmark (i.e. the direct costs to the national budget and the costs to the pig industry) related to an outbreak of CSF in Denmark will be highly driven by the reactions of the export markets and in particular of the non-EU markets. Unfortunately, there is a substantial amount of uncertainty surrounding this issue. If hunting is used as a control measure, the average expenses related to a CSF outbreak will be 40% higher if wild boar are present compared with not present. However, a vaccination strategy for wild boar will double the total costs compared with a hunting strategy.     

A generic spreadsheet model of a disease epidemic with application to the first 100 days of the 2001 outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease in the UK

A generic, stochastic spreadsheet model was developed to calculate the number of cases within the first 100 days of a propagating epidemic and with the ability to incorporate generic control measures. Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) epidemics were simulated with a range of assumptions about the number of cases incubating the disease on day 1 and the efficiency of control measures. Particularly severe epidemics resulted from scenarios with low efficiency of control measures and high numbers incubating. Control measures that prevented 0.8 of cases from resulting in new cases were able to reduce substantially the cumulative number of cases. The results of various scenarios using the model were compared to the number of cases of FMD in the first 100 days of the 2001 outbreak in the UK, with specific reference to cases in Cumbria and Anglesey. Potential practical and educational applications of the model are discussed.     

Temporal-spatial epidemiology of foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks in Mongolia, 2000 – 2002

Prior to 2000, foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) had not been observed in Mongolia since 1973; however, between April 2000 and July 2002, Mongolia reported 44 FMD outbreaks that affected cattle, sheep, goats, and camels. The objectives of this study were to describe the distributions of the 44 reported FMD outbreaks in Mongolia and to assess their spatial clustering and directions of movement. Official reports were collected to obtain the number and species of animals both affected and at risk, and the date and geographical coordinates of each outbreak. Significant global and local spatial clusters of reported FMD outbreaks were identified. Disease spread during the second epidemic moved 76° northeast and the spread of the disease during the third epidemic moved 110° northwest. FMD outbreaks were clustered intensely close to other FMD-positive counties. These findings can be used in the future to help plan prevention and control measures in high risk areas.     

Airborne spread of foot-and-mouth disease – Model intercomparison

Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) spreads by direct contact between animals, by animal products (milk, meat and semen), by mechanical transfer on people or fomites and by the airborne route, with the relative importance of each mechanism depending on the particular outbreak characteristics. Atmospheric dispersion models have been developed to assess airborne spread of FMDV in a number of countries, including the UK, Denmark, Australia, New Zealand, USA and Canada. These models were compared at a Workshop hosted by the Institute for Animal Health/Met Office in 2008. Each modeller was provided with data relating to the 1967 outbreak of FMD in Hampshire, UK, and asked to predict the spread of FMDV by the airborne route.A number of key issues emerged from the Workshop and subsequent modelling work: (1) in general all models predicted similar directions for livestock at risk, with much of the remaining differences strongly related to differences in the meteorological data used; (2) determination of an accurate sequence of events on the infected premises is highly important, especially if the meteorological conditions vary substantially during the virus emission period; (3) differences in assumptions made about virus release, environmental fate and susceptibility to airborne infection can substantially modify the size and location of the downwind risk area. All of the atmospheric dispersion models compared at the Workshop can be used to assess windborne spread of FMDV and provide scientific advice to those responsible for making control and eradication decisions in the event of an outbreak of disease.     

Estimating the risk of importation of foot-and-mouth disease into Europe

The opinions of a number of recognised world experts on foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) were sought in order to answer key questions relating to the importation of the disease into European countries from countries outside Europe. In addition, their opinions were sought on where in Europe a primary outbreak of FMD was most likely to occur and the number of outbreaks likely to occur within European countries in the next five years. The Balkans group of countries was considered to be the most likely group within Europe to have a primary outbreak of FMD and also most likely to have the highest number of primary outbreaks. Turkey was considered to be the country outside Europe which was most likely to be the source of an outbreak within Europe as a whole, and the illegal importation of livestock was considered to be the most likely route of introduction of FMD into Europe. Results specific to the Islands group of countries, which included the UK and Ireland, suggested that this group was likely to have a mean of one primary outbreak of FMD in the five years from September 2000, and that the importation of foodstuffs by people entering those countries from Turkey was the most likely source of an outbreak.     

A review of foot-and-mouth disease with special consideration for the clinical and epidemiological factors relevant to predictive modelling of the disease

Modelling the epidemiology of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) has been undertaken since the early 1970s. We review here clinical factors and modelling procedures that have been used in the past, differentiating between those that have proved to be more relevant in controlling FMD epidemics, and those that have showed less significance. During the 2001 UK FMD epidemic, many previously developed FMD models were available for consideration and use. Accurate epidemiological models can become useful tools for determining relevant control policies for different scenarios and, conversely, inaccurate models may become an abuse for disease control. Inaccuracy presents two opposing difficulties. Firstly, too much control (in terms of animal slaughter for 2001) would negatively impact the farming community for many subsequent years, whilst too little control would permit an epidemic to persist. Accuracy however, presents the optimal permutation of control measures that could be implemented for a given set of conditions, and is a prerequisite to boosting public confidence in the use of epidemiological models for future epidemics.     

Airborne transmission of foot-and-mouth disease in pigs: evaluation and optimisation of instrumentation and techniques

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) can be transmitted in a variety of ways, one of which is through virus exhaled into the air by infected livestock. It is clear that where there is close contact there will be a range of possible mechanisms for the transmission of disease from animal to animal, including the airborne route if simple barriers between livestock exist. In transmission of FMD over longer distances, airborne transmission represents a significant challenge to the veterinary services in that the mechanism is essentially uncontrollable if the primary source of the disease is not contained. In the event of an epidemic of FMD, such as the one experienced in the United Kingdom in 2001, it is important for disease control purposes to understand the contribution made to the overall spread of disease by aerosolised virus. This assessment is based on a combination of measurements made in the laboratory and through clinical observations in the field. To date, laboratory measurements have used a number of instruments that were not specifically designed for working with FMD virus or whose performance have not been fully compared and documented. This paper compares four samplers and describes the method by which samples are processed. Overall it is concluded that there is no optimum air sampling instrument which could be successfully employed for all situations but the work provides guidance to those wishing to make measurements in the future and establishes a baseline against which any new samplers can be compared.     

Epidemiological simulation modeling and spatial analysis for foot-and-mouth disease control strategies: a comprehensive review

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is one of the most serious transboundary, contagious viral diseases of cloven-hoofed livestock, because it can spread rapidly with high morbidity rates when introduced into disease-free herds or areas. Epidemiological simulation modeling can be developed to study the hypothetical spread of FMD and to evaluate potential disease control strategies that can be implemented to decrease the impact of an outbreak or to eradicate the virus from an area. Spatial analysis, a study of the distributions of events in space, can be applied to an area to investigate the spread of animal disease. Hypothetical FMD outbreaks can be spatially analyzed to evaluate the effect of the event under different control strategies. The main objective of this paper is to review FMD-related articles on FMD epidemiology, epidemiological simulation modeling and spatial analysis with the focus on disease control. This review will contribute to the development of models used to simulate FMD outbreaks under various control strategies, and to the application of spatial analysis to assess the outcome of FMD spread and its control.     

Clinical and laboratory investigations of five outbreaks of foot-and-mouth disease during the 2001 epidemic in the United Kingdom

Clinical and laboratory investigations of five outbreaks of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) were made during the early stages of the 2001 epidemic in the UK. The first outbreak, confirmed on February 20, was at an abattoir in Essex which specialised in the processing of culled sows and boars. On February 23, the disease was confirmed at a pig farm in Northumberland which held cull sows and boars fed on waste food; the findings indicated that it was the first of the five premises to be infected. The disease had probably been present since early February, and it was the most likely origin of the epidemic. The other premises investigated were a waste food-fed cull sow/boar pig unit in Essex, approximately 30 km from the abattoir, which was probably infected at the same time or before the abattoir, a sheep and cattle farm approximately 6 km from the Northumberland pig farm, which was probably infected by airborne virus from it in the period immediately before February 13, and a sheep and cattle farm in Devon which had clinical disease from February 20 and was probably infected by sheep transported from Northumberland on February 13 which arrived on February 15.     

The 2010 foot-and-mouth disease epidemic in Japan

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) occurred recently for the first time in a decade in Japan. The index case was detected on a beef-breeding farm in Miyazaki Prefecture, Southern Japan, on April 20, 2010. After confirmation of this first case, control measures such as stamping out, movement restriction and disinfection were implemented. However, these strategies proved insufficient to prevent the spread of FMD and emergency vaccination was adopted. Up until the last outbreak on July 4, 2010, a total of 292 outbreaks had been confirmed, with about 290,000 animals having been culled. The epidemic occurred in an area with a high density of cattle and pigs, making disease control difficult. Invasion of the disease into a high-density area aided its rapid spread and led to difficulties in locating suitable burial sites. Epidemiological investigations indicated that the disease was introduced into Japan approximately one month before detection. This delay in initial detection is considered to have allowed an increased number of outbreaks in the early stage of the epidemic. Nevertheless, the epidemic was contained within a localized area in Miyazaki Prefecture and was eradicated within three months because of intensive control efforts including emergency vaccination. Although this epidemic devastated the livestock industry in Japan, many lessons can be learnt for the future prevention and control of infectious diseases in animals.     

Comparing the epidemiological and economic effects of control strategies against classical swine fever in Denmark

In 2006, total Danish pork exports were valued at €3.8 billion, corresponding to approximately 5% of the total Danish exports, and an outbreak of a notifiable disease would have dramatic consequences for the agricultural sector in Denmark. Several outbreaks of classical swine fever (CSF) have occurred in Europe within the last decade, and different control strategies have been suggested. The objective of this study was to simulate the epidemiological and economic consequences of such control strategies in a CSF epidemic under Danish conditions with respect to herd demographics and geography and to investigate the effect of extra biosecurity measures on farms. We used InterSpread Plus to model the effect of nine different control strategies: the minimum measures required by the EU plus depopulation of contact herds (EUplus), extra depopulation of neighbouring herds, extra surveillance within the protection and surveillance zones, extra biosecurity in SPF herds—or in all herds, vaccination of all pigs in the 1 or 2 km zones using live vaccine as a protective measure (vaccination-to-kill), vaccination of all weaners and finishers in the 1 or 2 km zones using an E2 marker vaccine as a suppressive measure (vaccination-to-live). Each epidemic was simulated to start in four different index herds: production herds located in low, medium and high pig density areas, respectively; and a nucleus herd in an area of high pig density. For each control strategy and index case, we calculated the size and duration of the epidemic, the number of depopulated and/or vaccinated herds and animals, the control costs borne by the public and the pig industry, respectively, as well as the loss of exports associated with the epidemic.The simulations showed that the EUplus strategy is the most effective of the evaluated strategies with respect to limiting the size, duration and cost of the epidemic, regardless of the index case. However, regarding the number of slaughtered animals, the vaccination-to-live strategies appeared to be more effective.Epidemics become larger and last longer if the index case is a nucleus herd. This implies that biosecurity in nucleus herds is extremely important to avoid transmission of CSF to these herds.Simulations showed that a Danish CSF epidemic will be moderate in most cases and will include fewer than 10 cases and last less than 2 weeks on average. However, for some iterations, long-lasting and large epidemics were observed. Irrespective of the size and duration, an epidemic is expected to be very costly due to the export losses.     

Spatial and stochastic simulation to evaluate the impact of events and control measures on the 1997-1998 classical swine fever epidemic in The Netherlands. I. Description of simulation model

The simulation model InterCSF was developed to simulate the Dutch Classical Swine Fever (CSF) epidemic of 1997–98 as closely as possible. InterCSF is a spatial, temporal and stochastic simulation model. The outcomes of the various replications give an estimate of the variation in size and duration of possible CSF-epidemics. InterCSF simulates disease spread from an infected farm to other farms through three contact types (animals, vehicles, persons) and through local spread up to a specified distance. The main disease-control mechanisms that influence the disease spread in InterCSF are diagnosis of the infected farms, depopulation of infected farms, movement-control areas, tracing, and pre-emptive slaughter. InterCSF was developed using InterSpread as the basis. InterSpread was developed for foot-and-mouth disease (FMD). This paper describes the process of modifying InterSpread into InterCSF. This involved changing the assumptions and mechanisms for disease spread from FMD to CSF. In addition, CSF-specific control measures based on the standard European Union (EU) regulations were included, as well as additional control measures that were applied during the Dutch epidemic. To adapt InterCSF as closely as possible to the Dutch 1997/98 epidemic, data from the real epidemic were analysed. Both disease spread and disease-control parameters were thus specifically based on the real epidemic. In general, InterSpread turned out to be a flexible tool that could be adapted to simulate another disease with relative ease. The most difficult were the modifications necessary to mimic the real epidemic as closely as possible. The model was well able to simulate an epidemic with a similar pattern over time for number of detected farms as the real outbreak; but the absolute numbers were (despite many relevant modifications) not exactly the same — but were within an acceptable range. Furthermore, the development of InterCSF provided the researchers with a better insight into the existing knowledge gaps. In part II (see the final paper in this issue), InterCSF was used to compare various control strategies as applied to this epidemic.     

Development of a typing system for epidemiological studies of porcine toxin-producing Pasteurella multocida ssp. multocida in Denmark

The aim of the present study was to evaluate capsular-typing, plasmid-profiling, phage-typing and ribotyping for epidemiological studies of toxin-producing Pasteurella multocida ssp. multocida in Denmark. The evaluation of methods was based on 68 strains from nasal swabs and 14 strains from pneumonic lungs. Strains from lungs were all of capsular Type A, whereas strains from nasal swabs were of both capsular Types A and D. Only 9% of the strains contained plasmids, which could not be associated with antibiotic resistance. Phage-typing divided 61% of strains into 10 groups, while 39% were non-typable. CfoI ribotyping divided strains into four groups of which one type contained 94% of isolates. HindIII ribotyping divided strains into 18 types. A total of 18 strains from The Netherlands, UK and USA were subjected to HindIII ribotyping, resulting in 13 types of which six were identical to ribotypes of Danish strains. Phage-typing of isolates from an outbreak of atrophic rhinitis involving six herds in 1985 showed the existence of an epidemic strain. This type was recognised in the herd suspected of being the source of the infections and in four of the five infected herds. These findings were supported by HindIII ribotyping, as 85% of isolates from all herds were assigned to one ribotype. In conclusion, HindIII ribotyping seems to represent a useful tool for epidemiological studies of toxigenic P. multocida ssp. multocida.     

FMD and international trade relations--conditions and consequences

The outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease in several member states of the European Union this year made the risks linked to this epidemic pretty clear to the public. In this connection, the possibility of vaccinations was controversially discussed not only among experts. Therefore it has to be taken into consideration that every kind of vaccination leads to economic consequences, which have to be taken into account when making such a decision. It is an illusion assuming that there will be a return to prophylactic vaccination. However in certain situations such emergency vaccination have to be available as an additional measure of control. Because of present decisions of the European Commission any consequences connected therewith are known. Thereby the EU regulations coincide with those of the Office International des Epizooties (OIE) and make the extent of restrictions after vaccination calculable. The assessment leads to the conclusion that preventive measures, rapid and successful eradication of FMD outbreaks as well as the option of emergency vaccination have to be followed as an overall conception.     

Diversity and stability of Aleutian mink disease virus during bottleneck transitions resulting from eradication in domestic mink in Denmark

Aleutian mink disease (plasmacytosis) virus (AMDV) in domestic mink (Neovison vison) has been subject to eradication in Denmark since 1976. In 2001, approximately 5% of Danish mink farms were still infected and all were located in the northern part of the peninsula of Jutland. In the present study a total of 274 Danish isolates of AMDV collected during the two seasons of 2004 and 2005 were characterized by partial sequencing of the coding region of the non-structural (NS) proteins. Older AMDV isolates from Denmark, available, were also included. The Danish isolates represent a very homogenous cluster compared with Swedish, Finnish and Dutch isolates and seem to represent a minor fraction of the genetic diversity previously found in Denmark. Stability of nucleotide deviations reveals that the purifying selection of bottlenecks imposed on the AMDV population in Denmark by the stamping out policy for more than 6 years exceeds the rate of mutation driven diversity. Among the isolates from farms in northern Jutland two distinct types could be identified and within each of them a number of sub-types which were all useful in tracking spread of infections. Infection at a farm the preceding season was a predisposing risk parameter for disease outbreak at a farm, and strain identity substantiates the suggestion that inadequate disinfection is involved in the recurrence of outbreaks. In cases of new introductions to farms it is indicated that contact including transport between farms played a most significant role.     

Foot-and-mouth disease eradication efforts in the Republic of Korea

On March 20, 2000, a suspected vesicular disease in cattle was reported to the National Veterinary Research and Quarantine Service (NVRQS) of the Republic of Korea. This represented the index case of a foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) outbreak, which spread through several provinces. The Republic of Korea had been free of FMD for 66 years prior to the reintroduction of the virus and had recently suspended imports of pork and pork products from neighboring Japan owing to a reported FMD outbreak in that country. The Korean outbreak was ultimately controlled through the combination of preemptive slaughter, animal movement restrictions, and a strategy of ring vaccination. The purpose of this paper is to review the current FMD situation in Korea in the aftermath of its 2000 epizootic and how it may affect future efforts to eradicate or reduce risk of reintroduction of the disease into Korea.     

The foot-and-mouth disease epidemic in The Netherlands in 2001

An outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in Great Britain was reported on 21 February 2001, followed by an outbreak of FMD in The Netherlands a month later. This Dutch index outbreak occurred on a mixed, veal-calf/dairy-goat farm in Oene, in the central part of The Netherlands. The most-likely route of infection was the import of Irish veal-calves to this Dutch herd via an FMD-contaminated staging point in France. With hindsight, more herds seemed to be infected by the time the index outbreak was confirmed. The regular EU control measures were implemented, in combination with pre-emptive culling of herds within 1km of each outbreak. Nevertheless, more outbreaks of FMD occurred. Most of the virus infections on those farms were "neighborhood infections". Because the situation seemed out of control locally and the destruction capacity became insufficient, it was decided to implement an emergency vaccination strategy for all biungulates in a large area around Oene to stop further spread of the virus. All susceptible animals on approximately 1800 farms in this area were vaccinated. All farms subsequently were depopulated, starting from 2 weeks after vaccination. In total, 26 outbreaks were detected (the last outbreak on 22 April 2001). In total, approximately 260,000 animals were killed.