Modeling invasive species spread in complex landscapes: the case of potato moth in Ecuador

Tropical mountains have a long history of human occupation, and although vulnerable to biological invasions, have received minimal attention in the literature. Understanding invasive pest dynamics in socio-ecological, agricultural landscapes, like the tropical Andes, is a challenging but timely issue for ecologists as it may provide developing countries with new tools to face increasing threats posed by these organisms. In this work, road rehabilitation into a remote valley of the Ecuadorian Andes constituted a natural experiment to study the spatial propagation of an invasive potato tuber moth into a previously non-infested agricultural landscape. We used a cellular automaton to model moth spatio-temporal dynamics. Integrating real-world variables in the model allowed us to examine the relative influence of environmental versus social landscape heterogeneity on moth propagation. We focused on two types of anthropogenic activities: (1) the presence and spatial distribution of traditional crop storage structures that modify local microclimate, and (2) long-distance dispersal (LDD) of moths by human-induced transportation. Data from participatory monitoring of pest invasion into the valley and from a larger-scale field survey on the Ecuadorian Andes allowed us to validate our model against actual presence/absence records. Our simulations revealed that high density and a clumped distribution of storage structures had a positive effect on moth invasion by modifying the temperature of the landscape, and that passive, LDD enhanced moth invasion. Model validation showed that including human influence produced more precise and realistic simulations. We provide a powerful and widely applicable methodological framework that stresses the crucial importance of integrating the social landscape to develop accurate invasion models of pest dynamics in complex, agricultural systems.     

Modelling and simulating change in reforesting mountain landscapes using a social-ecological framework

Natural reforestation of European mountain landscapes raises major environmental and societal issues. With local stakeholders in the Pyrenees National Park area (France), we studied agricultural landscape colonisation by ash (Fraxinus excelsior) to enlighten its impacts on biodiversity and other landscape functions of importance for the valley socio-economics. The study comprised an integrated assessment of land-use and land-cover change (LUCC) since the 1950s, and a scenario analysis of alternative future policy. We combined knowledge and methods from landscape ecology, land change and agricultural sciences, and a set of coordinated field studies to capture interactions and feedback in the local landscape/land-use system. Our results elicited the hierarchically-nested relationships between social and ecological processes. Agricultural change played a preeminent role in the spatial and temporal patterns of LUCC. Landscape colonisation by ash at the parcel level of organisation was merely controlled by grassland management, and in fact depended on the farmer’s land management at the whole-farm level. LUCC patterns at the landscape level depended to a great extent on interactions between farm household behaviours and the spatial arrangement of landholdings within the landscape mosaic. Our results stressed the need to represent the local SES function at a fine scale to adequately capture scenarios of change in landscape functions. These findings orientated our modelling choices in the building an agent-based model for LUCC simulation (SMASH–Spatialized Multi-Agent System of landscape colonization by ASH). We discuss our method and results with reference to topical issues in interdisciplinary research into the sustainability of multifunctional landscapes.     

Modelling dynamics of ecosystem services basket in Mediterranean landscapes: a tool for rational management

Natural ecosystems are life-supporting systems providing diverse ecosystem services (ESs) and benefits to human societies: e.g., food and clean water, recreation opportunities or climate regulation. The contribution of natural and semi-natural ecosystems to the provision of such services depends to a large extent on vegetation structure and composition, which, in turn, change as a result of interactions between human decisions about land management, and spontaneous biological and environmental processes. Rational management of these dynamic ecosystems requires an ability to predict short- and long-term effects of management decisions on the desired ESs. The vegetation then contributes to, and modifies, the products and services obtained from the land. We applied mathematical modeling to study these complex relationships. We developed a model for a Mediterranean ecosystem which predicts the dynamics of multiple services in response to management scenarios, mediated by vegetation changes. Six representative ESs representing different groups were selected, based on available scientific information, for a detailed study: (1) density of geophytes, (2) potential contribution to honey production, (3) energy density of fleshy fruits foraged by birds, (4) forage for goats, (5) forage for cattle, and (6) carbon retention in woody plants. Mean contributions to each service by different vegetation cover types were estimated, and the overall service provided by the site was calculated as a weighted mean of these contributions. Services were measured in their appropriate units and subsequently standardized to a percentage of the maximum value observed in the study area. We attempted to combine all studied ESs, despite their different nature, into one “ESs basket”. This paper presents the dynamics of simulated vegetation composition and values of services in response to management scenarios involving grazing, fire and their combinations. Our approach can help land managers to evaluate alternative management scenarios by presenting the “services basket” obtained from the entire managed area.     

Seasonal nitrogen and phosphorus leaching in urban agriculture: Dominance of non-growing season losses in a Southern Swedish case study

Urban agriculture, as most agriculture, can potentially contribute to eutrophication via losses to ground and surface water. Few published studies have empirically measured nitrogen and phosphorus losses (including leaching) from urban agriculture, and even fewer have examined losses in real-world settings throughout the year. Here we investigated year-round (May 2020–2021) weekly nitrogen and phosphorus leaching from allotment gardens in Linköping, southern Sweden. We installed eight lysimeters (8 plots) and collected water 0.3 m below the soil surface in four gardens (2 plots per garden), each with their own gardening practices (organic fertilizers, irrigation, and crops). The gardens exhibited large nutrient leaching per area cultivated compared to observed nutrient leachate in rural agriculture in similar climates. There was a large variability among studied plots, where nitrogen leaching reached 39–191 kg ha⁻¹ y⁻¹ and phosphorus 0.9–2.4 kg ha⁻² y⁻¹. Importantly, the non-growing season, especially snowmelt, was a key period for leaching. Most of the nitrogen (78–91 %) and phosphorus (45–97 %) leaching occurred from November to April when the soil was bare, suggesting that mineralization of organic matter was important. Three of the gardens received high amounts of organic fertilizers, though no clear relation between inputs and leaching could be discerned. One plot deviated from the pattern, with less than 40 % of the nutrient leaching occurring in the non-growing season. This gardener had a fine net covering the plot to deter insects. This protected from precipitation as the water volume collected was the lowest, with only 26 % collected in the non-growing season, and nitrogen leaching was also the lowest. Our results illustrate that additional monitoring studies should occur year-round and in several gardens to account for high temporal and spatial heterogeneity and avoid under-estimating leaching losses from urban agriculture. Providing guidance on fertilization, irrigation, and soil covering may be a way to minimize leaching.     

How to assess the temporal dynamics of landscape connectivity in ever-changing landscapes: a literature review

Landscape Ecology - Landscape connectivity plays a key role in determining the persistence of species inhabiting fragmented habitat patches. In dynamic landscapes, most studies measure connectivity...     

High resolution species distribution models of two nesting water bird species: a study of transferability and predictive performance

Species distribution modelling is increasingly used in ecological studies and is particularly useful in conservation planning. Models are, however, typically created with a coarse resolution, although conservation planning often requires a high resolution. In this study we created high resolution models and explored central aspects of the modelling procedure; transferability and predictive performance of the models. We created models for two breeding water bird species, common eider Somateria mollissima and herring gull Larus argentatus, based on data from two regions in the Finnish archipelago (234 islands). We used seven variables which we considered as potential predictors of nest site location: distance to forest, distance to rock and distance to low vegetation, exposure, elevation, slope and curvature of the land surface. We tested the predictive ability of the models crosswise between the areas by using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. The models were transferable between our study areas and the predictive performance varied from fair to excellent. The most important predictors overall were exposure and distance to forest. More general models, with higher regularization values in the Maxent software, had better transferability regarding predictive performance. However, when we fitted a model based on 60% of the data from both regions and evaluated the model on the remaining 40%, the most complex model had the highest accuracy. Extrapolation of SDMs, evaluated on data from the same region, should therefore always be done with caution as the most accurate model might not have the best transferability if it is not general enough.     

Quantifying determinants contributing to plant species richness in mosaic landscapes: a single- and multi-patch perspective

Despite good theoretical knowledge about determinants of plant species richness in mosaic landscapes, validations based on complete surveys are scarce. We conducted a case study in a highly fragmented, traditional agricultural landscape. In 199 patches of 20 representative multi-patch-plots (MPPs, 1 ha) we recorded a total of 371 plant species. In addition to an additive partitioning of species diversity at the (a) patch- and (b) MPP-scale, we adopted the recently proposed ‘specificity’ measure to quantify the contribution of a spatial subunit to landscape species richness (subunit-to-landscape-contribution, SLC). SLC-values were calculated at both scales with respect to various spatial extents. General regression models were used to quantify the relative importance of hypothesis-driven determinants for species richness and SLC-values. At the patch scale, habitat type was the main determinant of species richness, followed by area and elongated shape. For SLC-values, area was more important than habitat type, and its relevance increased with the extent of the considered landscape. Influences of elongated shape and vegetation context were minor. Differences between habitat types were pronounced for species richness and also partly scale-dependent for SLC-values. Relevant predictors at the MPP-scale were nonlinear habitat richness, the gradient from anthropogenic to seminatural vegetation, and the proportions of natural vegetation and rare habitats. Linear elements and habitat configuration did not contribute to species richness and SLC. Results at the MPP-scale were in complete accordance with the predictions of the mosaic concept. Hence, our study represents its first empirical validation for plant species diversity in mosaic landscapes.     

Factors affecting the persistence of traditional agricultural landscapes in Slovakia during the collectivization of agriculture

Collectivization of agriculture (1950s–1970s) was one of the most important periods in landscape development in Slovakia. Traditionally managed agricultural landscapes, that covered more than half of the Slovak territory, were transformed into large-scale fields and only fragments of traditional agricultural landscapes survived. We mapped the remaining traditional agricultural landscapes using aerial photos and historical maps. We then statistically analyzed the various geographical factors and their influence on the transformation process of traditional and collectivized fields, i.e., slope steepness, soil fertility, distance from settlements and isolation from regional capital cities. The comparison was performed using classification tree analysis. We constructed a set of decision rules that explain why fields were managed traditionally or collectivized. Our findings show that traditional agricultural fields were more likely to persist on steep terrain, less fertile soils, and on locations that were closer to the settlements, but more isolated from the regional capital cities. Steepness played the most important role: small-scale fields located on steep areas were not accessible to heavy machinery and therefore, frequently survived the collectivization. We show that the selected geographical factors are good explanatory variables for the collectivization of arable fields and orchards. For vineyards and grasslands, however, the explanatory power of the selected geographical factors is lower, and we suspect that other factors, not depicted in the analysis play an important role.     

Uncertainty analysis as a tool for refining land dynamics modelling on changing landscapes: a case study in a Spanish Natural Park

In this study we developed a methodology aimed at improving the assessment of inter-annual land cover dynamics from hard classified remotely sensed data in heterogeneous and resilient landscapes. The methodology is implemented for the Spanish Natural Park of Sierra de Ancares, where human interference during the last century has resulted in the destruction and fragmentation of the original land cover. We ran supervised classifications, with a maximum likelihood algorithm (Maxlike), on a temporal series of Landsat images (1991–2005), followed by an uncertainty assessment using fuzzy classifications and confusion indices (CIs). This allowed us to show how much (and where) of the resulting maps contained a substantial amount of error, distinguishing data that might be useful to measure land change from data that are not particularly useful when applying a post-classification comparison methodology. In this way, we can detect true changes not skewed by the effects of uncertainty. Even if patterns of change were always coherent amongst years, they were more realistic after reducing uncertainty, in spite of a substantial decrease in the number of available pixels (i.e. unmasked by the method). We then computed land cover dynamics by means of a model specifically designed to determine the frequency of disturbances (mainly fire events) and the vegetation recovery time during the study period. Model outputs showed correlated landscape patterns at a broad scale and provided useful results to explore land cover change from pattern to process.     

Integrative approach for landscape-based graph connectivity analysis: a case study with the common frog (Rana temporaria) in human-dominated landscapes

Graph-based analysis is a promising approach for analyzing the functional and structural connectivity of landscapes. In human-shaped landscapes, species have become vulnerable to land degradation and connectivity loss between habitat patches. Movement across the landscape is a key process for species survival that needs to be further investigated for heterogeneous human-dominated landscapes. The common frog (Rana temporaria) was used as a case study to explore and provide a graph connectivity analysis framework that integrates habitat suitability and dispersal responses to landscape permeability. The main habitat patches influencing habitat availability and connectivity were highlighted by using the software Conefor Sensinode 2.2. One of the main advantages of the presented graph-theoretical approach is its ability to provide a large choice of variables to be used based on the study’s assumptions and knowledge about target species. Based on dispersal simulation modelling in potential suitable habitat corridors, three distinct patterns of nodes connections of differing importance were revealed. These patterns are locally influenced by anthropogenic barriers, landscape permeability, and habitat suitability. And they are affected by different suitability and availability gradients to maximize the best possible settlement by the common frog within a terrestrial habitat continuum. The study determined the key role of landscape-based approaches for identifying the “availability-suitability-connectivity” patterns from a local to regional approach to provide an operational tool for landscape planning.     

Plant selection method for urban landscapes of semi-arid cities (a case study of Tehran)

Choosing appropriate plants for urban landscapes is vital to avoid potential financial and environmental losses that may occur if all selection parameters are not taken into account. A methodology has been developed to assist landscape architects, planting designers, and urban horticulturists in the plant selection process. Tehran has been picked as a case study due to its arid and semi-arid climate which poses more challenges in front of an expert. After grouping plants, selection parameters have been defined for each plant group. Plant species were comparatively graded for each parameter by a group of eight specialists. Analytical hierarchy process (AHP) technique and hierarchical cluster analysis have been utilized to find the most adaptable plant species for the area according to the main selection parameters of zone tolerance, urban conditions, esthetics, maintenance, growth characteristics, and specific features. Several new plants were ranked high in the final tables suggesting that the urban landscape of Tehran has a great potential to become more attractive, less allergic, and less costly, as well as consuming less water. Before introducing new plants to the urban environment, they should be experimented on in small numbers for several years to confirm that they will not change the ecology of the whole region through invasion or posing a threat to any local plant species.     

Walkability in urban landscapes: a comparative study of four large cities in China

Context

Walkability is an important element for assessing the sustainability of urban landscapes. There are increased concerns that as the world becomes more urbanized, cities become less walkable.

Objectives

We aim to develop a composite walkability index to evaluate the spatio-temporal pattern of the walkability of cities. By using the index to evaluate four major cities China, we also aim to provide policy implications.

Methods

A comprehensive walkability index is developed to integrate five aspects of the urban built environment: dwelling density, street connectivity, land-use mix, access to public transit, and flatness. Shanghai, Hangzhou, Chongqing, and Lanzhou are chosen as case studies to evaluate the spatio-temporal patterns and changes of walkability in the context of rapid urban expansion.

Results

Great variations exist among the four cities in terms of speed, scale, and locations of changes of walkability. During 2000–2010, the inner cities of Hangzhou, Chongqing, and Lanzhou and the entire cities of Shanghai and Chongqing increased their walkability index, whereas the inner city of Shanghai had decreased walkability. Furthermore, while inner cities of Shanghai and Hangzhou experienced decreased or stable walkability, the inner cities of Lanzhou and Chongqing enjoyed moderate to high increases in walkability. For inner cities, Shanghai had the highest average walkability index, whereas Lanzhou held the lowest in 2010.

Conclusions

The spatiotemporal changes in walkability seem to be closely associated with governmental policies and planning. The walkability index method can be widely implemented for any urban landscape because of its comprehensiveness, simplicity, and flexibility.

     

Disaggregating ecosystem services and disservices in the cultural landscapes of southwestern Ethiopia: a study of rural perceptions

Context

Cultural landscapes provide essential ecosystem services to local communities, especially in poor rural settings. However, potentially negative impacts of ecosystems—or disservices—remain inadequately understood. Similarly, how benefit–cost outcomes differ within communities is unclear, but potentially important for cultural landscape management.

Objectives

Here we investigated whether distinct forest ecosystem service–disservice outcomes emerge within local communities. We aimed to characterize groups of community members according to service–disservice outcomes, and assessed their attitudes towards the forest.

Methods

We interviewed 150 rural households in southwestern Ethiopia about locally relevant ecosystem services (provisioning services) and disservices (wildlife impacts). Households were grouped based on their ecosystem service–disservice profiles through hierarchical clustering. We used linear models to assess differences between groups in geographic and socioeconomic characteristics, as well as attitudes toward the forest.

Results

We identified three groups with distinct ecosystem service–disservice profiles. Half of the households fell into a “lose–lose” profile (low benefits, high costs), while fewer had “lose–escape” (low benefits, low costs) and “win–lose” (high benefits, high costs) profiles. Location relative to forest and altitude explained differences between the “lose–escape” profile and other households. Socioeconomic factors were also important. “Win–lose” households appeared to be wealthier and had better forest use rights compared to “lose–lose” households. Attitudes towards the forest did not differ between profiles.

Conclusions

Our study demonstrates the importance of disaggregating both ecosystem services and disservices, instead of assuming that communities receive benefits and costs homogenously. To manage cultural landscapes sustainably, such heterogeneity must be acknowledged and better understood.

     

Within-patch habitat quality determines the resilience of specialist species in fragmented landscapes

Patch geometry and habitat quality among patches are widely recognized as important factors affecting population dynamics in fragmented landscapes. Little is known, however, about the influence of within-patch habitat quality on population dynamics. In this paper, we investigate the relative importance of patch geometry and within-patch habitat quality in determining population dynamics using a spatially explicit, agent-based model. We simulate two mobile species that differ in their species traits: one resembles a habitat specialist and the other a habitat generalist. Habitat quality varies continuously within habitat patches in space (and time). The results show that spatial variation in within-patch quality, together with patch area, controls population abundance of the habitat specialist. In contrast, the population size of the generalist species depends on patch area and isolation. Temporal variation in within-patch quality is, however, less influential in driving the population resilience of both species. We conclude that specialist species are more sensitive than generalist species to within-patch variation in habitat quality. The patch area-isolation paradigm, developed in metapopulation theory, should incorporate variation in within-patch habitat quality, particularly for habitat specialists.     

Spatiotemporal variations of albedo in managed agricultural landscapes: inferences to global warming impacts (GWI)

Landscape Ecology - Albedo can be used to quantify ecosystem and landscape contributions to local and global climate. Such contributions are conventionally expressed as radiative forcing (RF) and...     

Modelling biodiversity trends in the montado (wood pasture) landscapes of the Alentejo,Portugal

Context

Montados are dynamic agroforestry systems of southern Portugal, with high economic and ecological values. Changes in land use and cover have important implications for landscape-level biodiversity and its conservation.

Objectives

Our objectives were to evaluate the biodiversity values and trends in a montado system in the Alentejo, Portugal so as to inform landscape level conservation approaches. In doing so, we aimed to develop a replicable and robust approach drawing together field observation, expert opinion, and remote sensing to produce predictions relevant to land management planning.

Methods

Field sampling and subsequent analysis of data on the birds, butterflies and plants in eight distinct land covers allowed the identification of two principal habitat groupings of importance: ‘montado mosaic’ and ‘shrubland’. Morphological spatial pattern analysis was performed on Landsat-derived GIS habitat layers for 1984 and 2009, generating maps and statistics for change in the different landscape functional classes. In addition, we demonstrated how the modelling of ecotones between open and closed biomes can identify the preferred hunting grounds of the threatened Iberian lynx and black vulture, flagship species whose conservation provides benefits to the area’s wider biodiversity values.

Results

Total and core area of montado mosaics and shrubland increased over the 25 year period, whilst the amount of habitat connectivity declined in the case of shrubland. Considerable local variation in these trends highlighted targetable areas for conservation action (e.g. through agri-environment spending).

Conclusions

A rapid and robust approach was demonstrated, with potentially wider utility for biodiversity assessment and planning.

     

Use of landscape pattern metrics and multiscale data in aquatic species distribution models: a case study of a freshwater mussel

The distributions of freshwater mussels are controlled by landscape factors operating at multiple spatial scales. Changes in land use/land cover (LULC) have been implicated in severe population declines and range contractions of freshwater mussels across North America. Despite widespread recognition of multiscale influences few studies have addressed these issues when developing distribution models. Furthermore, most studies have disregarded the role of landscape pattern in regulating aquatic species distributions, focusing only on landscape composition. In this study, the distribution of Rabbitsfoot (Quadrula cylindrica) in the upper Green River system (Ohio River drainage) is modeled with environmental variables from multiple scales: subcatchment, riparian buffer, and reach buffer. Four types of landscape environment metrics are used, including: LULC pattern, LULC composition, soil composition, and geology composition. The study shows that LULC pattern metrics are very useful in modeling the distribution of Rabbitsfoot. Together with LULC compositional metrics, pattern metrics permit a more detailed analysis of functional linkages between aquatic species distributions and landscape structure. Moreover, the inclusion of multiple spatial scales is necessary to accurately model the hierarchical processes in stream systems. Geomorphic features play important roles in regulating species distributions at intermediate and large scales while LULC variables appear more influential at proximal scales.     

Effects of landscape configuration on mapping ecosystem service capacity: a review of evidence and a case study in Scotland

Context

Humans structure landscapes for the production of food, fibre and fuel, commonly resulting in declines of non-provisioning ecosystem services (ESs). Heterogeneous landscapes are capable of providing multiple ESs, and landscape configuration—spatial arrangement of land cover in the landscape—is expected to affect ES capacity. However, the majority of ES mapping studies have not accounted for landscape configuration.

Objectives

Our objective is to assess and quantify the relevance of configuration for mapping ES capacity. A review of empirical evidence for configuration effects on the capacity of ten ESs reveals that for four ESs configuration is relevant but typically ignored in ES quantification. For four ESs we quantify the relevance of configuration for mapping ESs using Scotland as a case study.

Methods

Each ES was quantified through modelling, respectively ignoring or accounting for configuration. The difference in ES capacity between the two ES models was determined at multiple spatial scales.

Results

Configuration affected the capacity of all four ESs mapped, particularly at the cell and watershed scale. At the scale of Scotland most local effects averaged out. Flood control and sediment retention responded strongest to configuration. ESs were affected by different aspects of configuration, thus requiring specific methods for mapping each ES.

Conclusions

Accounting for configuration is important for the assessment of certain ESs at the cell and watershed scale. Incorporating configuration in landscape management provides opportunities for spatial optimization of ES capacity, but the diverging response of ESs to configuration suggests that accounting for configuration involves trade-offs between ESs.

     

The impact of urban expansion on the regional environment in Myanmar: a case study of two capital cities

Context

This study examines the spatio-temporal patterns of urban expansion for Yangon and Nay Pyi Taw, the former and new national capitals of Myanmar, and its impact on the regional environment between 2000 and 2013.

Objectives

The objective is to examine different driving forces of urban expansion for Yangon and Nay Pyi Taw, and their environmental consequences during Myanmar’s transitional economy.

Methods

Classified time-series Landsat images are used to evaluate urban expansion processes. Environmental parameters being evaluated in this study include five sets of remotely sensed MODIS land products that are land surface temperature (LST), percent tree cover (PTC), evapotranspiration (ET), terrestrial ecosystem net primary productivity (NPP), and aerosol optical depth (AOD). A time-series trend analysis technique is used to examine the environmental consequences.

Results

The built-up areas in Nay Pyi Taw and Yangon exhibit exponential and polynomial increase, respectively. A 1% increase of built-up area could potentially cause an increase of daytime LST of 0.7 °C, a PTC loss of 2.3%, a decrease in NPP of 34.3 kg/m², and an ET decrease of 42.2 mm for Yangon. Similarly, for Nay Pyi Taw, a 1% increase in built-up area could potentially cause a daytime LST increase of 0.3 °C, a nighttime LST increase of 0.06 °C, a PTC loss of 2.5%, a decrease in NPP of 15.1 kg/m², and a decrease of 19.2 mm ET. No significant change was observed for AOD for either city.

Conclusions

Both cities have experienced extensive urban expansion but with different spatial and temporal characteristics, and their effects on the regional environment are different. Urban expansion of Nay Pyi Taw mainly was government-induced municipal infrastructure development. Yangon’s expansion is mainly caused by population pressure and migration from rural areas. The urban expansion in Yangon was mainly due to reconstruction and renovation, as well as infill development during the study period.