Changing governance of the world's forests

Major features of contemporary forest governance include decentralization of forest management, logging concessions in publicly owned commercially valuable forests, and timber certification, primarily in temperate forests. Although a majority of forests continue to be owned formally by governments, the effectiveness of forest governance is increasingly independent of formal ownership. Growing and competing demands for food, biofuels, timber, and environmental services will pose severe challenges to effective forest governance in the future, especially in conjunction with the direct and indirect impacts of climate change. A greater role for community and market actors in forest governance and deeper attention to the factors that lead to effective governance, beyond ownership patterns, is necessary to address future forest governance challenges.     

Penetration of human-induced warming into the world's oceans

A warming signal has penetrated into the world's oceans over the past 40 years. The signal is complex, with a vertical structure that varies widely by ocean; it cannot be explained by natural internal climate variability or solar and volcanic forcing, but is well simulated by two anthropogenically forced climate models. We conclude that it is of human origin, a conclusion robust to observational sampling and model differences. Changes in advection combine with surface forcing to give the overall warming pattern. The implications of this study suggest that society needs to seriously consider model predictions of future climate change.     

The anatomy of the world's largest extinct rodent

Phoberomys is reported to be the largest rodent that ever existed, although it has been known only from isolated teeth and fragmentary postcranial bones. An exceptionally complete skeleton of Phoberomys pattersoni was discovered in a rich locality of fossil vertebrates in the Upper Miocene of Venezuela. Reliable body mass estimates yield approximately 700 kilograms, more than 10 times the mass of the largest living rodent, the capybara. With Phoberomys, Rodentia becomes one of the mammalian orders with the largest size range, second only to diprotodontian marsupials. Several postcranial features support an evolutionary relationship of Phoberomys with pakaranas from the South American rodent radiation. The associated fossil fauna is diverse and suggests that Phoberomys lived in marginal lagoons and wetlands.     

Detection of anthropogenic climate change in the world's oceans

Large-scale increases in the heat content of the world's oceans have been observed to occur over the last 45 years. The horizontal and temporal character of these changes has been closely replicated by the state-of-the-art Parallel Climate Model (PCM) forced by observed and estimated anthropogenic gases. Application of optimal detection methodology shows that the model-produced signals are indistinguishable from the observations at the 0.05 confidence level. Further, the chances of either the anthropogenic or observed signals being produced by the PCM as a result of natural, internal forcing alone are less than 5%. This suggests that the observed ocean heat-content changes are consistent with those expected from anthropogenic forcing, which broadens the basis for claims that an anthropogenic signal has been detected in the global climate system. Additionally, the requirement that modeled ocean heat uptakes match observations puts a strong, new constraint on anthropogenically forced climate models. It is unknown if the current generation of climate models, other than the PCM, meet this constraint.     

The impact of conservation on the status of the world's vertebrates

Using data for 25,780 species categorized on the International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List, we present an assessment of the status of the world's vertebrates. One-fifth of species are classified as Threatened, and we show that this figure is increasing: On average, 52 species of mammals, birds, and amphibians move one category closer to extinction each year. However, this overall pattern conceals the impact of conservation successes, and we show that the rate of deterioration would have been at least one-fifth again as much in the absence of these. Nonetheless, current conservation efforts remain insufficient to offset the main drivers of biodiversity loss in these groups: agricultural expansion, logging, overexploitation, and invasive alien species.     

Fragmentation and flow regulation of the world's large river systems

A global overview of dam-based impacts on large river systems shows that over half (172 out of 292) are affected by dams, including the eight most biogeographically diverse. Dam-impacted catchments experience higher irrigation pressure and about 25 times more economic activity per unit of water than do unaffected catchments. In view of projected changes in climate and water resource use, these findings can be used to identify ecological risks associated with further impacts on large river systems.