Study on the Relationship Between Capacity of Regional AtmosphericEnvironments and the Size of Population Development

The population of university town increases sharply these days, the quality of atmospheric environments continues to deteriorate, and the carrying capacity of environments declines dramatically. People`s environmental awareness is gradually increasing and the demand for quality of life is higher and higher.In order to protect the quality of atmospheric environments, mitigate the adverse effects of population expansion of the university town on the atmospheric environments, and promote the sustainable development of social and economic benefits, to carry out this project is essential. Based on the university town`s existing land-use planning and environmental quality, combined with regional meteorological data, the article uses mathematical modeling to estimate the atmospheric environmental capacity of regional conventional pollution factor. Also, according to the survey data based on per capita resource consumption, this article statistically analyzes the unit of pollutant emissions and regional pollutants emissions. Based on the estimates of environmental capacity, it demonstrates the rationality of existing planning of the university town and also feedback from the perspective of the protection of the atmospheric environment on the population size control of the university town.     

农产品加工业对小城镇建设促进作用研究

经过几十年的发展,中国小城镇建设取得了一定成效,但在发展过程中,出现了区域差距扩大、经济结构粗放、缺乏强有力的产业支撑等问题,导致中西部地区小城镇发展缓慢、缺乏竞争力、农民未能分享城镇化成果等现象。本文通过分析小城镇发展的现实经济需求,以及农产品加工业的发展现状和产业特点,结合区域经济理论--增长极理论,提出应通过发展农产品加工业来促进中国小城镇建设的思路,并提出相应的政策建议。     

Problems and Countermeasures of Water Supply System in Small Towns

Water supply in small towns is one of the important components of the small towns' economy and society development.Based on the actual condition of water supply system,this paper analyzes the problems existed in water supply system of small towns,such as gradually polluted sources,imperfect water supply facilities,smaller scales,unreasonable quantity and so on.In addition,the corresponding measures are put forward to guarantee water supply system develop speed in small towns.Those countermeasures are launching sources protection work to guarantee the drinking water safety according to the character of the small town,then adopts reasonable water supply style,chooses economy water processing method,optimizes water network system construction;selects reasonable quantity consumption quota,and carries out gradually the regional water supply mode in conditional small towns.     

1951—2013年河南省降水量时空变化特征

本研究选取1951—2013 年河南省18 个观测站月观测降水量数据为研究对象,运用小波分析、Mann-Kendall 线性趋势检验、降水量变率、累积距平等方法,分析河南省降水量及800 mm等降水量线时空演化规律。结果表明：过去63 年,（1）河南省年和四季降水量具有不显著减少趋势,夏季降水量变化控制年降水量变化,发生旱灾的程度高于洪灾;（2）年和四季降水量存在2~3 年、准4.5 年和准6 年的振荡周期,可能与厄尔尼诺/南方涛动有关;（3）年和四季降水量自东南向西北逐渐减少,大部分地区年和四季降水量均具有减少趋势;（4）将800 mm等降水量线作为中国南北方分界线显得单薄,需要寻找更多的代用指标,综合分析南北方分界线具体走向及宽度范围。     

基于P-S-R的重庆市黔江区城镇建设用地需求控制研究

近年来,农村人口向城镇大量流动加之城镇人口的自然增长,城镇人口对于城镇用地的需求十分强烈;另外,随着经济的发展,城镇固定资产投资逐年增加,致使城镇各业用地需求旺盛。因此城镇的扩张与人口向城镇的流动和政府对城镇的投资是密不可分的。本文试图通过引用系统工程理念中的压力-状态-响应（P-S-R）模型,分析导致城镇建设用地扩张的人口和固定资产投资的压力机制,并构建了测算建设用地需求模型。基于黔江区2004-2008年的数据,测得黔江区合理的城镇扩张规模,避免城镇粗放型的扩张。测得黔江区建设用地增量380.92 hm2。     

江苏农村家庭能源消费研究

农村家庭能源消费是国家能源消费的重要组成部分,对农村社会、经济及生态环境有重要的影响。在江苏9个典型县3645家庭能源消费及其相关问题入户调查数据分析的基础上,给出了江苏典型地区农村家庭人均能源消费水平和最终用能消费结构,比较研究了苏南、苏中、苏北三地区能源消费结构和有效热中商品能所占比例的差异,分析了能源消费与家庭纯收入的变化关系。研究为认识农村经济发展过程中家庭能源消费特征,建立能源供需平衡体系和生物质资源的规模化利用有着重要的意义。     

基于GIS的石角镇农村居民点空间分布特征分析

【研究目的】研究石角镇农村居民点空间分布特征;【方法】本文以重庆市綦江县石角镇白云村、新农村、寨门村的1：2000土地利用现状图、地形图等资料为基础,在ArcGIS 9?2 的平台下,对研究区的农村居民点空间分布特征进行了定量分析;【结论】研究区内居民点规模偏小,分布不均衡,主要成带状、团状和分散分布;居民点分布受自然环境影响,地形分布特征明显;区内大部分居民点距主要道路偏远,内部道路不够完善。     

内蒙古东部膜下滴灌旱作水稻作物需水量与产量研究

提高水资源利用率,解决农业用水短缺一直是世界性的问题,如何在减少灌溉用水量和优化用水结构的同时保障内蒙古主要水稻产区的粮食生产能力,是目前的研究热点。本研究基于水量平衡原理,于2018—2019年的5—9月在内蒙古东部扎赉特旗开展膜下滴灌旱作水稻灌溉试验,并且以传统插秧泡田种植为参照,提出了内蒙古东部典型地区膜下滴灌旱作水稻的作物需水量和不同生育阶段需水规律,并且分析了不同灌溉方式的水稻最终产量及作物需水系数。研究结果表明膜下滴灌水稻全生育期需水量为608.4 mm,其生育阶段土壤含水率占饱和含水量的85%~100%时的产量最大,苗期需水量最小,抽穗灌浆期最大;拔节孕穗中期的耗水强度最大,需水系数在全生育期中抽穗灌浆期为最大。     

A Community Economic Forecasting and Simulation System: Description of a Satellite Model

This paper deals with the problem of modelling sub-county areas that are so small that county level forecasts cannot be used for policy purposes. Starting from a simple specification that relates demand for local goods and services to local and non-local income, a system of equations is developed that can be used as a satellite to a county model to forecast impacts of economic events at the town level. Regression coefficients for the equations are estimated using data at the one-digit SIC code level for a pooled sample of towns in Massachusetts. Model validation tests are reported. An example of an application is provided by simulating impacts of 500 new manufacturing jobs in a town within a county. Our approach yields simulation and forecasting results for both the town and the county.     

Sampling Investigation on Inhatitant Domestic Tap Water Consumption Situation and It’s Characteristics Analysis

Economics.Through sampling investigation and analysis on inhabitant domestic tap water consumption situation,it is given that economic factors are the main factors influence inhatitant's water consumption.The functional relations among inhabitant's income and water consumption,water price and consumption are given. The tap water's income elasticity of demand and price elasticity of demand is analyzed, along with the fluctuating range month by month of inhabitant's water consumption.Finally ,this paper offers the reference data for planning the ability of water supply and making policies of ladder water prices.     

Population Prediction for New Town Planning of Beijing Municipality --A Case Study of Changping New Town

Based on the function orientation of the new towns in General Planning for Beijing Municipality(2004-2020) and the condition of future economic growth and labor force demand,this paper makes a population prediction of Changping using edge-glide algorithm.It is pointed out that the population amount will decline under natural population growth,from 515 thousand in 2000 to 489 thousand in 2020.Along with the population and industry transfer from center of the municipality to outer district,the new town will have strong impact on function remission of the central city area and the population will increase rapidly in Changping.It is predicted that there will be increase of 520-630 thousand in Changping from 2000 to 2020.So it's important to take measures to meet the requirement of population growth and alleviate the function of city zone.     

Method of Gradual Advance for Town Development

The economical construction and development of China can't be separated from the development of rural economy.Due to appearance and development of rural enterprises,surplus labor force of rural areas was accepted, agricultural economy had been developed and farmers' income enhanced. The traditional agriculture had been reconstructed. The construction and development of small cities and towns are connected with the development of rural economy and accelerate the development of city economy. The construction of small cities and towns can have congregation effect and scale benefit. The industry structure of country will be optimized in whole, management cost will be cut down, energy consumption will be reduced, pollution will be lowered and labor productivity will be increased. In this paper, the importance of town construction in economic development of China is elaborated. The achievement and problem in town construction are summarized. A method of gradual advance for town development is put forward and the problems that must be handled in town development are pointed out.     

河西地区啤酒大麦需水规律及土壤水分变化特征研究

[目的]为合理安排啤酒大麦农田灌溉,优化水资源配置, [方法]采用联合国粮食及农业组织(FAO)推荐的彭曼—蒙蒂斯(Penman-Monteith)公式,利用位于河西地区东部永昌气象站2013～2017年的气温、日照、风速等气象观测资料,计算出啤酒大麦生育期内逐日需水量,分析其需水规律；同时利用自动土壤水分资料,研究土壤水分时空变化特征。[结果]结果表明：全生育期总需水量为608.0 mm,分蘖、孕穗、乳熟为啤酒大麦需水关键期,孕穗～乳熟期是需水旺盛期；土壤水分发育期变化大部分时期与作物需水趋势相反；土壤水分垂直变化总体趋势是土壤深度由浅到深土壤含水量逐渐增大。[结论] 研究结果对啤酒大麦合理灌溉提供了有益参考。     

不同降水年型下长岭县向日葵需水规律研究

为了探讨降水对向日葵生长需水的影响,划分不同降水年型（丰水年、平水年、枯水年）,分别计算不同降水年型的向日葵需水量,并分析向日葵的生长需水及水分来源的变化规律。研究结果表明：向日葵不同生育阶段对水分的需求量不同,初期和后期较小,中期最大,而且越是干旱的年份向日葵需水量越大;丰水年向日葵需水量与有效降水量的耦合度最高,平水年次之,枯水年最低;不同降水年型向日葵不同生长阶段土壤水的消耗量不同,枯水年土壤水消耗量最大,生长季前期对土壤水的影响较小,后期开花到成熟阶段影响较大。     

Comparative Research Between HongJiang and PingYao

Different from research on a single ancient Town,this research choses 2 typical examples,which were the "organic" Ancient Town of Hongjiang located in the south mountain area,and the "regular" Ancient Town of Pingyao located in the north plain and planned under the theory of Kaogongji,and compared their city form on 2 levels,which were their material form and sociological characteristics behind.Through surveys,collecting documents,analyzing and summing up the fundamental information,it is discovered they are different in such aspects of their material form as the relation between town and natural environment,plan form of town,most important building type,building shape,relation among building units,relation between border zone and river in the vicinity,and the outer material differences originate from their different sociological characteristics including urban origins,urban functions,urban population make-up,urban developing rules,starting points and development of culture.     

上海市水产品消费需求的双对数模型分析

为了研究上海市水产品消费需求的影响因素以及不同因素贡献度的大小,以上海市1999—2010年城市居民家庭人均水产品消费量、城市化水平、水产品价格指数、替代品价格指数、居民消费价格指数、居民家庭人均可支配收入等相关数据作为研究对象,采用Eviews软件对上海市水产品消费需求进行回归分析。建立了包括城市居民家庭人均可支配收入、居民消费价格指数、总人口数这些影响因素在内的上海市水产品消费需求模型。另外,通过建立关于城市居民家庭人均可支配收入、居民价格指数、总人口数的模型,对这些影响因素进行预测,从而可以对上海市水产品消费进行预测。最终认为,要增加上海市水产品的消费需求,必须从提高家庭人均可支配收入、控制居民消费价格指数、发展水产品深加工业、加强物流体系建设以及加强水产品市场质量管理等方面入手,推动上海水产业持续稳定的发展。     

近60年农业生产期干旱发生风险分析

采用叶柏寿、朝阳气象站1953—2012 年气象资料,运用积分湿度指数、水平衡和干湿指数,评价辽西地区农业生产期大气降水及农业耗水、农业需水的满足度及不同时期旱涝频率。结果表明：1953—2012 年农业生产期大气降水减少,气候变化率为-9.343 mm/10 a;农业耗水量在增加,气候变化率为6.966 mm/10 a;农业生产期水分平均亏缺-136 mm。降水资源农业满足度为76.3%,缺水概率为90.0%。辽西地区农业生产期属于半湿润半干旱气候类型,重旱及以上年景占5.0%;干旱发生风险近10年增加约10%。总之,辽西地区降水在减少、耗水在增加、农业需水满足度在下降、干旱发生风险在增强。近10年随着气候变暖辽西地区农业生长期从半干旱半湿润气候类型升级为半干旱气候类型。     

中国农村能源碳排放生态压力研究

[方法]在对2006-2013年我国农村十种主要生活能源消费量及社会经济统计数据的基础上,计算了EEF、EFC的值,构建STIRPAT模型和改进脱钩指数法,[目的]分析2006-2013年的时间序列下中国农村能源碳排放生态压力。[结果]结果显示：(1)煤炭、秸秆、薪柴的年消费量平均分别以1.58%、3.16%和4.26%的速率降低,电力、成品油、液化石油气、煤气、沼气和太阳能的平均分别以25.99%、8.53%、22.78%、4.02%、34.85%、12.82%、9.11%的速率增长;(2)我国农村能源供给超过需求,生活能源消费未对乡村环境形成生态压力;(3)能源利用效率不断提高,单位土地面积和能源碳排放带来的经济价值不断提升;(4)适度降低人口规模、优化人口结构是建设乡村的有效办法;(5)技术是模型中能源碳排放生态压力的唯一抑制因素,对技术进行创新是当前进行乡村建设重要途径。[结论]我国能源消费模式还有巨大的提升空间,还应进一步加强政府调控、注重引导居民绿色消费观,使我国乡村建设向可持续发展方向稳步前进。     

张家界市烤烟主要化学成分分析

采集了张家界市6个典型产烟乡镇的B2F、C3F、X2F三个等级烤烟样本90个,测定了烟叶总糖、还原糖、烟碱、总氮、钾、氯含量,分析了张家界市烤烟化学成分特征。结果表明：张家界市烤烟总糖、还原糖、总氮、氯含量都处于合理水平,烟碱含量略偏高,上部烟叶钾含量略低。主要化学成分年度间差异显著,县际间和乡镇间差异不显著。聚类分析将张家界市6个典型产烟乡镇分为高糖高钾和低糖低钾2个类型。     

鹤壁市粮食耕地人口承载力评价

土地承载力评价是优化国土空间开发格局,制定经济社会发展政策的基础,而耕地是土地的精华,其产品——粮食在人类生存发展中有着更为基础的作用,我国人多、地少、粮紧,粮食安全问题始终是重大战略问题,开展耕地人口承载力研究有着重要意义。近年来,随着人口增加、经济社会发展、生活水平提高,鹤壁市人地关系发生了显著变化。[方法]本文借助土地资源承载力模型分析了鹤壁市耕地人口承载力现状,[结果]发现2006-2016年耕地粮食产量能够完全满足全市人口需求,并有一定盈余；对于2017-2030年耕地人口承载力状况,本文设定了温饱型、小康型、富裕型三种消费标准,通过对人口、耕地变化趋势的线性回归分析,发现在温饱水平、小康水平下耕地不超载,而在富裕水平下轻微超载,[结论 ]此分析说明未来一个时期保护耕地数量、提高耕地质量仍然具有重大的现实意义。