黄瓜上烟粉虱成虫种群空间分布格局及时序动态

应用6种聚集度指标和Iwao法、Taylor幂法则,考查了2006年7—8月份烟粉虱成虫种群（Bemisia tabaci）在黄瓜上的分布型;分析这些聚集度指标与密度的相关性,选择了受密度影响较小的负二项分布的k值,描述种群的时序动态。结果显示：在黄瓜的生长期间,该成虫种群聚集强度有明显的变化,水平空间为高→低→高→低,百株虫量最多为23359头,最少为1908头;垂直空间为低→高→低→高,百株第8叶烟粉虱成虫数量最多,为9093头,其次是第9叶和第7叶,分别为8488头和8353头。从该种群在黄瓜上的整个发生期来看,种群空间格局处于扩散和聚集交替进行的动态过程中。在空间分布格局研究的基础上,给出了合适的抽样数。     

Mapping crop diseases using survey data: The case of bacterial wilt in bananas in the East African highlands

Globally, crop diseases result in significant losses in crop yields. To properly target interventions to control crop diseases, it is important to map diseases at a high resolution. However, many surveys of crop diseases pose challenges to mapping because available observations are only proxies of the actual disease, observations often are not normally distributed and because typically convenience sampling is applied, leading to spatially clustered observations and large areas without observations. This paper addresses these challenges by applying a geostatistical methodology for disease incidence mapping. The methodology is illustrated for the case of bacterial wilt of banana (BWB) caused by Xanthomonas campestris pv. musacearum in the East African highlands. In a survey using convenience sampling, 1350 banana producing farmers were asked to estimate the percentage yield loss due to bacterial wilt. To deal with the non-normal distribution of the data, the percentages were classified into two binary variables, indicating whether or not the disease occurred and whether or not the yield loss was severe. To improve the spatial prediction of disease incidence in areas with low sampling density, the target variables were correlated in a logistic regression to a range of environmental variables, for which maps were available. Subsequently, the residuals of the regression analysis were interpolated using simple kriging. Finally, the interpolated residuals were added to the regression predictions. This so-called indicator regression kriging approach resulted in continuous maps of disease incidence. Cross-validation showed that the method yields unbiased predictions and correctly assesses the prediction accuracy. The geostatistical mapping is also more accurate than conventional mapping, which uses the mean of observations within districts as the predicted value for all locations within the district, although the accuracy improvement is not very large. The maps were also spatially aggregated to district level to support regional decision-making. The analysis showed that the disease is widespread on banana farms throughout the study area and can locally reach severe levels.     

基于ARCH类模型的中国农资价格波动特征分析

运用ARCH族模型对中国农资价格波动特征进行分析。主要研究结果包括：农资价格波动存在明显的聚集性和长期记忆性;农资市场不存在所谓的高风险高回报和非对称效应。据此建议：加强政府对农资价格的宏观调控,完善农资市场体系建设和深化农资储备制度。     

基于生育期模型的鄂西高山地区辣椒种植研究

为了更合理有效利用山区特有气候资源,提高高山地区辣椒产量及菜农收入,利用2009—2013年在鄂西南山区不同高度不同时间栽培试验及同步气象观测资料,建立了基于光温效应的高山辣椒生育期模型,分析了开花结果期累计光温效应APTE与单株坐果数、辣椒单产相关性,以及鄂西南山区相关气候特征。结果表明,生育期模型对生育期推算明显高于有效积温的推算;单株坐果数、辣椒单产与开花结果期≥16℃持续时间、APTE有显著的正相关;鄂西南海拔800 m高度≥16 ℃持续天数最长,且无高温天气过程出现,1200 m以上高海拔地区辣椒适宜开花结果期短,800~1200 m是鄂西南山区反季节辣椒生产的最佳高度带。800 m以上的中高山地区可以通过保护措施提早辣椒开花结果,从而延长开花结果期,增加辣椒产量。     

The predictive control of an incremental model based on tracking error

An algorithm of incremental model predictive control is proposed to solve a class of industrial production process real-time tracking problems. The basic idea is to establish a predictive model by adopting speed response on the basis of tracking error, and realize the optimization of the second time performance by using the soft constraint of the increment of control quantity and the online rolling optimization method. The theoretical analysis and Matlab simulation results show that the control algorithm can obtain good tracking performance, smooth dynamic response of the controlled object and strong robustness of the closed-loop system.     

基于ARMA模型的四川省农村居民收入趋势预测

基于1978-2010年四川省农村居民人均纯收入的时间序列,先后通过平稳化检验及处理、自相关与偏相关分析,并结合SC准则定阶,建立模型为 ;然后确定模型参数并对模型的残差序列进行白噪声检验,检验通过,满足预测的要求;接着,运用该模型对四川省农村居民人均纯收入进行预测,结果显示平均绝对误差率为1.81%,其中2010年误差率为1.21%,精度较高;最后对2011-2013年进行短期预测,数据表明农村居民人均收入将继续增长。     

The application research on improvement of constant sinusoidal signal sampling precision based on adaptive filter

A novel scheme is present to improve the conversion accuracy of ADC. The proposed approach uses adaptive sinusoidal filter. For the measurement of the signal with given frequency, the automatic adjustment of filter coefficients is based on least mean-square error rule, which is a mathematical tool can be employed to make filter output signal achieve the best approximation to the needed one. Then based on the result, it is able to get the amplitude and phase of the measured signal accurately. MATLAB software is used to verify the effectiveness of the algorithm. It proves that adaptive filter has improved the accuracy and signal-to-noise ratio of ADC, which is equal to increase the conversion digits.     

基于GIS和地统计学的土壤养分空间变异特征研究 ————以新疆农七师125团为例

基于地理信息系统(GIS)和地统计学，以地理信息系统软件ArcGIS为平台，采用Geostatisical Analyst地统计分析模块中的Kriging插值方法研究了新疆农七师125团土壤养分的空间变异性。应用GIS能够将系统变量的属性数据同地理数据相结合，使大区域范围内进行地统计学分析变得较为方便，研究结果表明，全氮、有机质、速效磷、速效钾均具有中等的空间相关性，但变异尺度不同。分析中还发现Kriging插值模型的选择及Crossin—ValNation交叉验证的检验与系数修正均影响分析工作的结果精度。     

Research on application of data model configuration for protection in smart substations

The IEC61850 standard and the existing bus protection data model are limited in the definition of data-model about dead-zone protection and charge protection for bus-tie. The paper analyzes the dead-zone protection and charge protection for bus-tie,and the data of input,output and setting based on the latest issued technical specifications intelligent substation. The data models of dead-zone protection and charge protection of bus-tie are developed for PCS915 bus protection. It improves the logic node modeling of bus protection and can provide useful information for the protection data-model configuration of intelligent substations.     

Genetic relationship in Vigna mungo (L.) Hepper and V. radiata (L.) R. Wilczek based on morphological traits and SDS-PAGE

Thirty seven diverse genotypes of Vigna mungo and three of V. radiataresembling to V. mungo for seed characters were studied to determine the extent of genetic variation based on morphological characters. In addition, 4black seeded genotypes in each species and8 green seeded V. radiata genotypes were included for SDS-PAGE analysis. Seed proteins were analyzed through slab type SDS-PAGE. High variance was observed for plant height, days to flowering, days to maturity, number of branches/plant, number of pods/plant, pod length, seeds per pod,biomass yield/plant, grain yield/plant and harvest index (%) during 2 consecutive years. First four components of PCA with eigenvalues >1 contributed 78.7 and79.1% of the total variance amongst 40genotypes during 1998 and 1999. The populations with high PC₁ values were expected to be high yielding characterised by earlyness, high seed weight and harvest index, all traits strictly related to reproductive phase. Four clusters of genotypes were observed during both the years and genetic diversity was in association for both the years. Based on SDS-PAGE, specific bands were suggested to be used for identifying Vigna radiatafrom mixed germplasm with Vigna mungo. The SDS-PAGE proved to be a powerful tool for differentiating Vigna radiata and Vigna mungo, whereas a low level inter-specific genetic diversity was observed and no clear differentiation was observed both for agronomic characteristics and for geographical origin. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

基于行人动力学模型的人桥竖向动力相互作用

基于行人动力学模型,研究了人桥竖向动力相互作用。行人动力学模型采用以行人步频和体重表示的刚度质量阻尼（SMD）模型,人行桥假定为Euler-Bernoulli梁模型,建立人桥竖向动力相互作用控制方程。采用状态空间法进行非比例阻尼系统瞬时模态的求解,得到系统的时变频率和阻尼比;利用变步长四阶五级Runge-Kutta-Felhberg算法求解时变控制方程,对比分析考虑人桥竖向动力相互作用和只在人行荷载作用下人行桥的动力响应。结果表明：考虑人桥动力相互作用,人行桥自振频率略有降低,阻尼有显著增大;当行人以人行桥的频率行走时,考虑人桥竖向动力相互作用结构的动力响应比不考虑人桥相互作用显著降低。     

高职农类专业“技能培养+创业孵化”模式的研究——以温州科技职业学院为例

高职农类技术专业人才培养应该更多地向技术开发和具体操作能力方面拓展,温州科技职业学院依托农业科研优势,探索技能培养+创业孵化模式,在人才培养过程中,将科研实践、生产实践、创业实践注入培养计划之中,取得了显著的成效。     

基于重测序的陆地棉InDel标记开发与评价

碱基插入/缺失(InDel)是基因组中丰富的遗传变异形式。InDel以其密度高、易于基因型分型等优点成为分子标记开发的理想来源。本研究利用262份陆地棉品系重测序数据鉴定的InDel位点,在全基因组范围内设计了3206个InDel标记并挑选均匀分布的320个标记进行验证。320个标记筛选出87个多态性标记,多态性率为26.88%。利用多态性标记对不同地理来源的262份陆地棉种质资源进行基因分型,共检测到160个等位位点;多态性信息含量(PIC)为0.0836～0.3750,平均值为0.3073;基因多样性指数变异范围为0.0874～0.5000,平均值为0.3876,表明我国陆地棉遗传基础相对狭窄。群体结构分析将262份陆地棉品系大致划分为2个亚群,聚类分析和主成分分析的结果与之基本一致。采用混合线性模型(Mixed linear model)对6个纤维品质性状的关联分析检测到65个关联位点(P 0.01),各位点对表型变异贡献率为2.57%～8.12%。本研究旨在利用重测序数据开发全基因组范围的可用于凝胶检测的InDel标记,为棉花种质资源研究和分子标记辅助选择育种提供便捷工具。     

四川主要干果经济林产品安全性初步研究

摘要：从核桃、板栗、银杏主产区分别采集样品,对其砷（As）、汞（Hg）、铅（Pb）、铬（Cr）、镉（Cd）、氟（F）、乐果、杀螟硫磷等重金属、农药残留及其它有害物质进行检测,并参照国家无公害水果要求进行分析比较,结果表明四川主要干果经济林产品总体安全性好。多数地区的核桃产品安全,所检测项目均符合国家无公害产品要求,但有一个样品中（Cd）的含量为国家无公害产品标准要求上限的203.3%;板栗的氟（F）含量3个样品均超出国家标准无公害水果的最大限量要求,平均为最大限量的156%,最高为178%,但是低于四川无公害粮食产品的最大限量要求;银杏的各项检测指标均低于国家无公害产品要求。     

A multi model composition framework based on bayesian model comparision and its application in soft sensor modeling

In order to improve the prediction performance of single model based soft sensor, the features of the current model combination frameworksby analynizing, a new multi model combination framework based on the bayesian model comparison is proposed. In this framework, fuzzy c means clustering to the historial data is used to analyze the production states, then the prediction performance of sub models at different states are compared based on bayesian model comparison. The comparing results are the basis of the model combination stratery at different states. With adapting cross validation predictive distribution, the samples got from the trained models are used to successfully reduce computation load of model comparion.The framework has obtained good results in the practical application.     

长期施肥下黄壤无机磷组分空间分布特征

利用土壤无机磷分级方法,研究长期施肥对黄壤中不同组分磷累积、迁移的影响。结果表明,施肥土壤全磷、有效磷、无机磷的含量均较不施肥处理有明显增加,随土层深度的加深而显著减少,施肥主要增加了Ca_2-P、Ca_8-P、Fe-P、Al-P含量,而对Ca_(10)-P、O-P含量影响较小。Ca_2-P、Ca_8-P、Fe-P、Al-P、Ca_(10)-P、O-P以表聚为主,同一土层上表现为O-PFe-PAl-P、Ca_(10)-PCa_2-PCa_8-P。不同形态的无机磷含量随土层深度呈现垂直分布规律,在0~100 cm土层中无机磷形态以O-P、Fe-P为主,且该比例随土层深度的增加而增加。因此,从长远来看,有机无机配施促使无机磷组分在土壤剖面的移动得以放缓,还不足以影响到地下水质量,更有利于黄壤区农业的可持续发展。     

基于NOAA/AVHRR数据的天津地区净初级生产力时空格局分析

本文基于CASA模型,充分考虑植被覆盖类型对光能利用率的影响及植被反照率对净辐射的影响,利用NOAA/AVHRR 1B卫星资料和气象资料估算了天津地区的植被净初级生产力（NPP）。估算结果表明：2007年天津地区植被NPP为3.86×109 gC/a,年平均NPP为335 gC/m2/a;蓟县、宁河与宝坻年NPP估算值居前三位;各季度对NPP总量贡献率依次为：夏季（62％）,秋季（21％）、春季（16％）,冬季（1％）;受物候和气候因素的综合影响,天津地区NPP具有明显的年际变化,利用年均NDVI可以较好地模拟天津地区NPP年总量,其模拟表达式为：     

矿山废弃地土壤基质改良研究

矿山废弃地对生态环境有着极大的破坏作用,危及人类的生存与健康,并影响到区域生态经济的可持续发展。矿山废弃地的生态修复和重建,已被看作是矿区土地修复的主要组成部分,而在生态恢复的植被重建过程中,基质改良是生态恢复的核心问题。研究借鉴目前国内外土壤基质改良的方法,较系统地介绍了矿山废弃地土壤基质物理、化学、生物改良技术措施。最后提出我国矿山废弃地土壤改良方法的选用原则：遵循因地制宜、就地取材,结合以往的研究成果,借鉴国际矿区土地复垦和生态修复的成功经验,研究废弃物土壤化演化的自然规律和机理,最终实现人工辅助的土壤化演化。     

Distribution of trust model in P2P network based on equilibrium theory

There are a large number of malicious attack nodes and collusion groups in P2P(peer to peer) network, and the existing trust models improve the P2P network environment to some extent, but the emphasis of the models are different, which are unable to fully solve large-scale malicious attacks and deception. Therefore, a P2P trust model based on equilibrium theory is presented. The model consists of the construction of the trust structure, the malicious node detection and trust speculation. It constructs trust network according to the equilibrium theory, uses the equilibrium theory to define nodes balance factor, detects balance malicious nodes by calculating the impact of malicious behavior on the network, and adopts trust inference algorithm to estimate trust nodes to prevent distrust network nodes being added. Experimental results show that the model is reliable, and the algorithm is efficient and robust.     

基于DEA模型的中国水产上市公司经营绩效评价研究

为了提高水产上市公司经营绩效和盈利状况。本研究运用数据包络分析(DEA)中的CCR模型和BCC模型对水产行业15家上市公司的技术、纯技术、规模效率进行了分析。结果表明：水产行业15家上市公司的综合效率值偏低,纯技术效率值较高,规模效率值偏低。并根据以上评价结果,结合水产行业现状,提出了培养龙头企业、使渔业增长方式由粗放式向集约式转变和优化产品结构等政策建议。