广东省气象灾害对冬种辣椒生产的影响

冬种辣椒是广东冬季农业生产的支柱产业。但冬种辣椒生产常常受寒潮、连阴雨、干旱等灾害性天气的威胁。调查广东省冬季气象灾害的发生规律,结合冬种辣椒的生长和栽培特点,探讨广东气象条件与冬种辣椒生产的关系,分析冬种辣椒面临的主要气象灾害的发生规律、特征及其对辣椒生产的影响。辣椒属喜光喜温作物,同时根系较浅,对水分要求严格。寒害是冬季辣椒生产面临的主要气象灾害;2、3月份的低温阴雨天气主要发生在粤北和珠三角地区,容易给辣椒造成渍害和湿害;冬季干旱发生频率也较大,珠江口北部以及雷州半岛地区是重点防范区域;而在全球变化     

2022年张家口市作物生长季气候特征及其对农业生产的影响

[目的]找出2022年张家口市作物生长季气候变化特征,并分析其对农业生产的影响。[方法]选取月降水量、月平均气温、月日照时数、极端最高气温和极端最低气温等气象要素,以1991—2020年30年平均值作为气候要素平均值,分析2022年5—9月张家口市各区县的气候资料。[结果]2022年张家口市出现春旱和阶段性夏旱。7月干旱的原因,可能与大陆高压势力强盛、副热带高压位置偏东偏南、极涡和台风势力偏弱有关;9月气温持续偏高,降水持续偏少,有利于早熟作物的成熟,但对晚熟作物的干物质积累不利;光照充足一直是张家口市农业生产的一大优势,即使在日照最少的6月,也基本能够满足作物的日照需求;2022年的农业气象灾害主要有阶段性干旱、阶段性高温、局部暴雨洪涝、大风、冰雹和初霜冻,其中春播期干旱、7月“卡脖旱”及8月下旬初霜冻3种灾害均遭遇的地区受灾最为严重。[结论]通过对2022年张家口市作物生长季气候变化特征的分析,可为来年合理利用气候资源提供理论参考。     

干旱制约吉林省大豆发展因素浅析及对策

干旱制约吉林省大豆发展因素浅析及对策傅艳华，李楠，彭宝，项淑华（吉林市农业科学院吉林市，１３２１０１）大豆是需水量多，且又不耐旱的作物。吉林省大部分地区雨水偏少，又无人工灌溉条件，因此，限制了大豆单产和总产的提高。尽管大豆整个生育过程需水量较多，但不...     

糖料作物对干旱胁迫的形态、生理及基因响应研究进展

在糖料作物的生长发育过程中,干旱缺水会对其正常生长造成一定的影响。在干旱条件下,糖料作物会产生相应的形态特征与生理生化特性的变化,此外,干旱胁迫还会诱导特定基因的表达,这些形态特征与生理生化特性的变化以及相关基因的表达减轻了糖料作物在干旱胁迫条件下所受到的伤害。本文对糖料作物在干旱胁迫下形态特征与生理生化特性的响应以及耐旱调节基因的相关研究进展方面进行了阐述,综述文献表明,目前发现的调控糖料作物干旱胁迫的主要基因类型有：钙依赖蛋白激酶(CDPK)基因、丝裂原活化蛋白激酶(MAPK)基因、AVP1基因及DREB、NAC、WRKY等转录因子基因。可为提高糖料作物耐旱性研究提供参考。     

漳州珍果寒害后的对策与建议

1999年冬期的低温寒害 ,给漳州地区果树生产造成严重的经济损失 ,引起农业界和果农的高度重视。据我所灾后重点调研 ,对“漳台农业合作良种引进、繁育示范基地”和“现代农业示范基地”两年来的实践 ,笔者提出以下粗浅看法供农技人员和果农参考。一、去冬的寒害特点去冬是属于辐射型降温。 12月 2 1日寒潮绝对低温虽然不是历史上最低的 ,但由于寒潮之前温度偏高 ,遇到突然降温 ,使果树失去逐渐适应低温的过程 ,加上去年台风的危害和冬期过分干旱 ,降低了果树的抗寒能力 ,以至加重寒害程度 ,尤其是河床、低谷和公路两旁的寒流通道受害最重。…     

应对气候变化 确保冬小麦安全生产

随着全球气候的异常变化．河南省安阳地区年平均气温升高．降水量减少。暖干化趋势明显。水资源供需矛盾加剧．农业气象灾害频繁发生．农业病虫害呈上升趋势．影响小麦生产的不利因素增加。农业气象灾害主要归结于降水因子和温度因子的变化。所以从趋利避害的角度研究小麦生产期间主要天气气候灾害（干旱、作物冷害、冻害、雷雨大风等）对小麦的影响和风险,为防灾减灾宏观调控和风险管理提供科学依据。     

茶树品种物候期研究报告

一、前言物候观测是农业气象观测不可缺少的一个重要组成部分。物候是指作物在气象、土壤,水文等环境条件的综合影响下,发育期出现时间早晚,生长状况以及产量、品质等方面的变化情况。物候现象是作物对环境条件的集中反映。物候观测与气象观测相结合,可以鉴定作物的生长发育,以及产量品     

兵国棉花膜下滴灌增产机理与持续增产的思考

新疆属于干旱缺水地区,约330多万公顷农田位于年降水量不足200 mm的出山口下游到沙漠边缘的冲积平原,目前因盐渍化影响作物生长的面积约100万公顷,严重制约了农业生产的可持续发展.     

胡麻新品系95053的选育

胡麻（Linum usitatissimum L）是世界重要的油料作物和纤维作物,在我国年栽培面积在53.3万hm^2左右．主要分布在西北、华北的甘肃、宁夏、新疆、内蒙古、山西等干旱高寒地区,是干旱冷凉地区的主要油料作物。胡麻具有抗旱、耐寒、耐瘠薄、适应性广等特性,因此．胡麻的生态适应性与我省的自然气候条件和农业生产条件相一致．具有其他作物不可替代的优势。     

漳州市香蕉生长的气象条件分析

根据漳州市近30年气象资料,从农业气象的角度分析了漳州市香蕉栽培的农业气象生长条件,为今后香蕉的高产优质栽培提供参考。     

川滇交界干热河谷地区农业气候资源特征

利用四川攀枝花和云南华坪、元谋等3个时间序列较长的气象站地面观测资料,运用线性趋势法、气候倾向率法、Mann-Kendall非参数统计检验法等方法分析了川滇交界干热河谷地区光能、热量、水分和风能等农业气候资源特征。结果表明：川滇干热河谷地区光能资源丰富,热量资源充足,风能资源良好,但水分资源结构不平衡,易出现干旱。并且在全球气候变化背景下,光能、热量、水分和风能等农业气候资源都发生了明显的变化,对农业会造成一定的影响,如温度升高导致作物生长期延长,生长季热量增加,适宜种植范围扩大。≥10 ℃积温的增加为热量要求较高的热带经济作物种植提供了有利条件,川滇干热河谷地区适宜热带经济作物种植区域将增加。此外,农业气候资源的变化也会带来一定的负面影响,如冬季温度升高,将导致热带作物抗旱能力下降等。     

吉林省气候变化对玉米气象产量的影响

利用吉林省梨树县1986～2008年的气象资料和玉米产量资料,在确定梨树县玉米的气象产量与积温、降雨以及日照时数之间关系的基础上,分析吉林省气候变化规律及其对玉米产量的影响。结果表明：玉米的气象产量(Y_w)与降雨量(x₁)呈显著正相关,与生育期内的积温(x₂)呈显著负相关,与日照时数无显著相关关系,与生育期内的降雨量和积温存在显著的二元线性关系：Y_w=15768.77+2.87x₁-5.42x₂,(r=0.63)。吉林省整个生育期内的平均气温、积温分别以每年0.05℃和10℃左右增加,降雨量以每年5mm左右减少,日照时数没有明显变化。随着吉林省气候变暖和降雨减少现象的加剧,对吉林省的旱情和玉米产量的影响越来越重。     

基于格点积温指标的黄淮海冬麦区冬小麦气候生产潜力预估

为宏观了解冬小麦产量及产量稳定度的变化规律,基于1991-2013年黄淮海冬麦区91个有冬小麦种植的农业气象站点的冬小麦发育期及对应年份100个气象站点逐日气象资料,采用格点积温指标划分生育期,通过逐步订正法对冬小麦的气候生产潜力及其变异系数进行估算,之后结合国家气候中心RegCM3模式模拟A1B情景下1951-2100年0.25°×0.25°格点气象资料,对未来情景下冬小麦气候生产潜力及其变异系数进行预估。结果表明,从年际变化看,黄淮海冬麦区冬小麦气候生产潜力总体呈现波动下降的趋势,且该波动逐渐趋稳;各时段气候生产潜力基本介于6 277~7 044kg·hm~(-2),除2011-2040年有21.94kg·hm~(-2)·10a~(-1)的上升趋势外,其余时段均呈明显下降趋势。冬小麦气候生产潜力在空间上总体呈北部低、四周高,在时间上主要呈先平稳后逐渐降低的趋势;其变异系数在空间上总体呈北高南低,在时间上呈北部先增后减、南部先减后增的变化趋势。在实际生产过程中应更加注重冬小麦生长发育过程中光、温、水的匹配程度。     

Climate Change and Potato Production in Contrasting South African Agro-Ecosystems 2. Assessing Risks and Opportunities of Adaptation Strategies

This study aims to assess the risks and opportunities posed by climate change to potato growers in South Africa and to evaluate adaptation measures in the form of changes in planting time growers could adopt to optimise land and water use efficiencies in potato, using a climate model of past, present-day and future climate over southern Africa and the LINTUL crop growth model. This was done for distinct agro-ecosystems in South Africa: the southern Mediterranean area where potato still is grown year round with a doubling of the number of hot days between 1960 and 2050, the Eastern Free State with summer crops only and Limpopo with currently autumn, winter and spring crops where the number of hot days increases sevenfold and in future the crop will mainly be grown in winter. A benefit here will be a drastic reduction of frost days from 0.9 days per winter to 0. Potato crops in the agro-ecosystems will benefit considerably from increased CO₂ levels such as increased tuber yield and reduced water use by the crop, if planting is shifted to appropriate times of the year. When the crop is grown in hot periods, however, these benefits are counteracted by an increased incidence of heat stress and increased evapotranspiration, leading in some instances to considerably lower yields and water use efficiencies. Therefore year-round total production at the Sandveld stabilizes at around 140 Mg?ha^?1 (yield reduction in summer and yield increase in winter), increases by about 30% in the Free State and stays at about 95 t?ha^?1 at Limpopo where yield increase due to CO₂ is annulled by a shorter growing season. When the crop is grown in a cool period, there is an additional benefit of a reduced incidence of cold stress and a more rapid canopy development in the early stages of crop growth. In all three areas, potato growers are likely to respond to climate change by advancing planting. In Limpopo, a major benefit of climate change is a reduction in the risk of frost damage in winter. The relevance of these findings for potato grown in agro-ecosystems elsewhere in the world is discussed.     

A decision support system for agricultural drought management using risk assessment

Since predicted changes in climate will modify temperature and rainfall patterns, there are concerns about the potential impacts of these changes on agricultural drought and agricultural water resources management. An agricultural drought is influenced by several factors such as rainfall, soil characteristics, crops, and reservoir water supply and may be defined as the imbalance of water circulation in paddy and water environments. In particular, soil moisture and water supply for reservoir demand are the most direct and important indicators of agricultural drought events. In the past, conventional drought management approaches based on climatic and meteorological observations have been the primary tools used for measuring drought severity. Because of the spatial and temporal variability and multiple impacts of drought, it is necessary to improve tools to determine the onset, severity, spatial extent, and end of the drought conditions. Improved and available data for mapping and monitoring of this phenomenon are also needed. Effective and efficient drought management can be achieved through drought monitoring based on the ability to assess current conditions and provide improved tools to adapt and mitigate the impacts of future changes. In this article, a methodology is developed to support the risk-based decision-making process involved in agricultural drought management using the following four strategies: drought assessment and monitoring, drought forecast and outlook, drought countermeasures, and drought records management.     

海南农业经济增长影响因素的实证分析

建省20多年来,海南农业经济得到了快速发展。本文利用扩展的柯布-道格拉斯生产函数,应用海南省18个市县1991～2009年的面板数据,定量分析农业资本存量、农业从业人口、耕地面积、农业机械总动力投入等因素对海南农业经济增长的影响。结果表明：农业资本存量、农业机械总动力及耕地面积对海南农业经济增长的影响是显著的,但贡献程度不高。最后,在此基础上提出加快海南农业经济增长的对策建议。     

Specification of climatic sensitivity of forage maize to climate change

The use of manipulative experiments to study directly the effects of climate change on natural and managed systems is expensive if performed on a large scale: it also relies upon accurate predictions of future climatic conditions. Predictive modelling is less expensive and permits a range of scenarios to be considered but this is only as reliable as the underpinning model.
Predicting the suitability of England and Wales for the cultivation of forage maize under climate change was attempted using an established crop growth model by Muchow et al. (1990) integrated with climate data. The biological and climatic inputs to the model were the thermal requirements for the stages of crop growth, leaf number, leaf area, harvest index, the daily maximum and minimum air temperature, precipitation and solar radiation. These values were obtained from a daily meteorological database for ninety-three sites in England and Wales for the period 1951–80. Model outputs as point values of potential crop yield predicting current production -'baseline'- were statistically validated using actual crop yield data collated from bibliographic analysis. The baseline results indicated that pans of the south-east appeared to be too dry and the north too cold. The model was run again using an artificial sensitivity test (temperature +2°C. precipitation ±10%). Increased precipitation led to a predicted increase in geographical suitability of the UK for forage maize production to the north and west. Under reduced precipitation there was a decrease in suitability in the south-east, possibly owing to moisture stress.     

中国北方麦区冬小麦物候期对气候变化的响应

为评价中国北方主要冬麦区小麦关键物候时间变化和主要影响气象因子的区域差异,基于1992-2013年间57个站点资料,在分析黄淮海平原、黄土高原和西北内陆冬小麦返青和成熟期时空变化的基础上,探讨影响北方麦区冬小麦关键生育时期的主要气象因子。结果表明,1992-2013年,北方冬小麦整体呈现返青期延后,成熟期提前,但总体趋势不明显,且存在区域差异;生育时期变化幅度随经度增加而增大。月平均温度和月最低温度分别是影响黄淮海平原冬小麦返青期和成熟期的主要气象要素,而黄土高原冬小麦生育时期主要受月平均温度变化的影响,但在西北内陆,返青期与月最低温度的负相关性最显著,而成熟期则主要受月平均温度变化的影响。月日照时长、月温差和月降水对小麦生育时期的影响在黄淮海平原/黄土高原和西北内陆相反。在黄淮海平原和黄土高原,月日照时长和月温差变化与小麦生育时期呈正相关,月降水与冬小麦生育时期呈负相关,但在西北内陆,月日照时长和月温差与小麦生育时期总体上呈负相关,月降水增加对西北内陆冬小麦生长有利,可延缓因干旱导致的物候提前。     

极端气候条件下辽宁省晚熟玉米品种的风险性评价

通过2009、2010年不同熟期玉米品种栽培试验和生产调查,对晚熟玉米品种在极端气候条件下的风险性进行对比研究。结果表明,晚熟品种受秋旱的影响更大,而熟期较短的品种可在一定程度上躲避"秋吊"。晚熟品种雌穗分化、散粉抽丝和灌浆期与阴雨季节重叠,长时间重度阴雨天易造成晚熟品种空秆和秃尖,而熟期较短的品种则较早地进入该发育阶段,躲避不利天气的影响。耐密植的中熟、中晚熟品种具有较强的耐荫性,因而保持良好的孕穗和结实能力。品种间的耐荫性差异警示为应对极端的气候条件,加强对品种耐阴性的选育,避免品种单一化或品种间遗传背景相近,从遗传角度积极地规避风险。适时早播可作为该地区抵御此类气象灾害的有效措施。