艾比湖水位变化对湖滨湿地盐渍化的影响研究

通过比较2000～2005年艾比湖水域及湖滨盐渍化土地的变化特点,分析了艾比湖水位变化对湖滨湿地盐渍化的影响机制和影响方式。发现个别年份艾比湖水位上升所形成的大水面虽然可以在短时间内覆盖原有的盐渍化土地而使盐渍化总面积减少,但水位急剧上升同时也是导致湖滨土地盐渍化面积扩大、程度加剧的根本原因。要想减轻艾比湖湿地盐渍化程度加重所带来的危害,保证艾比湖拥有一个稳定的水位是根本的出路。     

人类活动对泾河流域径流时空变化的影响

以泾河流域内14个水文站和189个雨量站的水文序列数据(1966-2005)为基础,分析了泾河流域径流的时空变化特征,并评估了人类活动对径流的影响.结果表明:径流呈明显的减少趋势,尤其是2000年后减少趋势极为显著;各子流域间径流变化存在明显的空间差异,以干流杨家坪以上及雨落坪、杨家坪至张家山区间各子流域的径流系列减少...     

Effects of climate change and land-use changes on spatiotemporal distributions of blue water and green water in Ningxia,Northwest China

Water resources are a crucial factor that determines the health of ecosystems and socio-economic development; however, they are under threat due to climate change and human activities. The quantitative assessment of water resources using the concept of blue water and green water can improve regional water resources management. In this study, spatiotemporal distributions of blue water and green water were simulated and analyzed under scenarios of climate change and land-use changes using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, Northwest China, between 2009 and 2014. Green water, a leading component of water resources, accounted for more than 69.00% of the total water resources in Ningxia. Blue water and green water showed a single peak trend on the monthly and annual scales during the study period. On the spatial scale, the southern region of Ningxia showed higher blue water and green water resources than the northern region. The spatiotemporal distribution features of blue water, green water, and green water flow had strong correlations with precipitation. Furthermore, the simulation identified the climate change in Ningxia to be more influential on blue water and green water than land-use changes. This study provides a specific scientific foundation to manage water resources in Ningxia when encountered with climate change together with human activities.     

艾比湖流域水资源变化与区域响应

艾比湖流域地处干旱的北疆地区,人类活动中最突出的建设水利设施和土地开发利用,加之全球变化的影响,改变了艾比湖及其水系原生自然生态系统,水资源和水环境发生了很大的变化。在综合研究流域内水资源变化成因的基础上,提出通过开源和节流并举,保证生态用水量,调整产业结构,依靠工程性和非工程性措施响应水资源变化,降低脆弱性,实现流域效益的最大化。     

Occurrence,sources, and relationships of soil microplastics with adsorbed heavy metals in the Ebinur Lake Basin,Northwest China

There is a lack of research on soil microplastics in arid oases considering the rapid economic development of northwestern China. Here, we studied the occurrence and sources of microplastics in soil, as well as the relationships between microplastics and adsorbed heavy metals in the Ebinur Lake Basin, a typical arid oasis in China. Results showed that (1) the average microplastic content in all soil samples was 36.15 (±3.27) mg/kg. The contents of microplastics at different sampling sites ranged from 3.89 (±1.64) to 89.25 (±2.98) mg/kg. Overall, the proportions of various microplastic shapes decreased in the following order: film (54.25%)>fiber (18.56%)>particle (15.07%)>fragment (8.66%)>foam (3.46%); (2) among all microplastic particles, white particles accounted for the largest proportion (52.93%), followed by green (24.15%), black (12.17%), transparent (7.16%), and yellow particles (3.59%). The proportions of microplastic particle size ranges across all soil samples decreased in the following order: 1000-2000 µm (40.88%)>500-1000 µm (26.75%)>2000-5000 µm (12.30%)>100-500 µm (12.92%)>0-100 µm (7.15%). FTIR (Fourier transform infrared) analyses showed that polyethylene terephthalate (PET), polypropylene (PP), polycarbonate (PC), polyethylene (PE), and polystyrene (PS) occurred in the studied soil; (3) random forest predictions showed that industrial and agricultural production activities and the discharge of domestic plastic waste were related to soil microplastic pollution, in which agricultural plastic film was the most important factor in soil pollution in the study area; and (4) seven heavy metals extracted from microplastics in the soil samples showed significant positive correlations with soil pH, EC, total salt, N, P, and K contents (P<0.01), indicating that these soil factors could significantly affect the contents of heavy metals carried by soil microplastics. This research demonstrated that the contents of soil microplastics are lower than other areas of the world, and they mainly come from industrial and agricultural activities of the Ebinur Lake Basin.     

Sensitivity and vulnerability of water resources in the arid Shiyang River Basin of Northwest China

The sensitivity and vulnerability of water resources to climate change is difficult to assess. In this study, we used a conceptual hydrologic model to investigate the sensitivity of streamflow to climate change. We also proposed a framework to evaluate the vulnerability of water resources in arid regions. We applied this framework to a case study of the Shiyang River Basin in Northwest China. Results showed that the precipitation and streamflow in Shiyang River Basin exhibited no significant trends of change from 1956 to 2010. In the past five decades, however, the temperature increased significantly by 0.37°C per decade. According to the sensitivity assessment, a 10% increase in precipitation and a 1°C increase in temperature altered mean annual streamflow by averages of 14.6% and –0.5%, respectively, from 1988 to 2005. In the 2000s, the calculated vulnerability of water resources in Shiyang River Basin was more than 0.95, indicating severe vulnerability. The increase in the amount of precipitation and the implementation of water-saving measures can reduce the vulnerability of water resources in the future; if precipitation increases by 10% per decade and the use of irrigation water decreases by 15% in the 2030s, the evaluated value of water resources vulnerability will be reduced to 0.79. However, the region remains highly vulnerable. The proposed framework for vulnerability assessment can be applied to the arid regions in Northwest China, and the results of our efforts can identify adaptation strategies and improve the management of water resources in such regions.     

Quantitative distinction of the relative actions of climate change and human activities on vegetation evolution in the Yellow River Basin of China during 1981-2019

Under the combined influence of climate change and human activities, vegetation ecosystem has undergone profound changes. It can be seen that there are obvious differences in the evolution patterns and driving mechanisms of vegetation ecosystem in different historical periods. Therefore, it is urgent to identify and reveal the dominant factors and their contribution rates in the vegetation change cycle. Based on the data of climate elements (sunshine hours, precipitation and temperature), human activities (population intensity and GDP intensity) and other natural factors (altitude, slope and aspect), this study explored the spatial and temporal evolution patterns of vegetation NDVI in the Yellow River Basin of China from 1989 to 2019 through a residual method, a trend analysis, and a gravity center model, and quantitatively distinguished the relative actions of climate change and human activities on vegetation evolution based on Geodetector model. The results showed that the spatial distribution of vegetation NDVI in the Yellow River Basin showed a decreasing trend from southeast to northwest. During 1981-2019, the temporal variation of vegetation NDVI showed an overall increasing trend. The gravity centers of average vegetation NDVI during the study period was distributed in Zhenyuan County, Gansu Province, and the center moved northeastwards from 1981 to 2019. During 1981-2000 and 2001-2019, the proportion of vegetation restoration areas promoted by the combined action of climate change and human activities was the largest. During the study period (1981-2019), the dominant factors influencing vegetation NDVI shifted from natural factors to human activities. These results could provide decision support for the protection and restoration of vegetation ecosystem in the Yellow River Basin.     

Desertification dynamic and the relative roles of climate change and human activities in desertification in the Heihe River Basin based on NPP

Relative roles of climate change and human activities in desertification are the hotspot of research on desertification dynamic and its driving mechanism.To overcome the shortcomings of existing studies,this paper selected net primary productivity(NPP) as an indicator to analyze desertification dynamic and its impact factors.In addition,the change trends of actual NPP,potential NPP and HNPP(human appropriation of NPP,the difference between potential NPP and actual NPP) were used to analyze the desertification dynamic and calculate the relative roles of climate change,human activities and a combination of the two factors in desertification.In this study,the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer(MODIS)-Normalised Difference Vegetation Index(NDVI) and meteorological data were utilized to drive the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach(CASA) model to calculate the actual NPP from 2001 to 2010 in the Heihe River Basin.Potential NPP was estimated using the Thornthwaite Memorial model.Results showed that 61% of the whole basin area underwent land degradation,of which 90.5% was caused by human activities,8.6% by climate change,and 0.9% by a combination of the two factors.On the contrary,1.5% of desertification reversion area was caused by human activities and 90.7% by climate change,the rest 7.8% by a combination of the two factors.Moreover,it was demonstrated that 95.9% of the total actual NPP decrease was induced by human activities,while 69.3% of the total actual NPP increase was caused by climate change.The results revealed that climate change dominated desertification reversion,while human activities dominated desertification expansion.Moreover,the relative roles of both climate change and human activities in desertification possessed great spatial heterogeneity.Additionally,ecological protection policies should be enhanced in the Heihe River Basin to prevent desertification expansion under the condition of climate change.     

新疆艾比湖绿洲干燥指数变化特征

基于艾比湖绿洲4个气象站1960-2013年逐月的气候资料,计算了干燥指数。结果表明:(1)艾比湖绿洲近54 a干燥指数的均值为6.97,属于干旱地区,干燥指数呈显著下降趋势,并且持续性较强,下降幅度约为0.49·(10a)^-1(P<0.05);夏季的干燥指数最大,为9.04,冬季最小,仅为2.20。(2)艾比湖绿洲全年干燥指数在1985年发生突变性减小,夏季和冬季发生突变性减小的年份为1991年和1983年,而春季和秋季不存在突变点。(3)艾比湖绿洲干燥指数的演变过程存在着7~8 a和20~21 a的周期变化,其变化的第一主周期为9 a,第二、三周期分别为21 a和5 a。(4)干燥指数对于风速的变化最为敏感,并且相对贡献率最高,而日照时数的变化最不敏感。     

艾比湖地区植被分布及物种多样性研究

应用重要值计算多样性指数、均匀度指数、优势度指数,对艾比湖流域植被分布及物种多样性进行分析。结果表明：① 研究区域内可划分出10个群落,其中多枝柽柳群落(Form.Tamarix ramosissima)分布最为广泛。② 湖岸植被表现出明显的带状分布特点,并且群落物种多样性随地势发生变化,地势高的地方,物种多样性较高,均匀度较好。③ 在南北断面内,影响植物生长的主要因素为土壤含盐量。随着土壤盐分的增加,物种种类趋向单一,群落结构趋向简单。相反物种多样性随着土壤盐分的减少而增大。④ 受风况和土壤含盐量的影响,南北断面植被组成差异较大,且在近湖岸范围内,南断面植物群落物种多样性和植物生长状态明显优于北断面。     

Effects of climate change and land use/cover change on the volume of the Qinghai Lake in China

Qinghai Lake is the largest saline lake in China.The change in the lake volume is an indicator of the variation in water resources and their response to climate change on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau(QTP)in China.The present study quantitatively evaluated the effects of climate change and land use/cover change(LUCC)on the lake volume of the Qinghai Lake in China from 1958 to 2018,which is crucial for water resources management in the Qinghai Lake Basin.To explore the effects of climate change and LUCC on the Qinghai Lake volume,we analyzed the lake level observation data and multi-period land use/land cover(LULC)data by using an improved lake volume estimation method and Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs(InVEST)model.Our results showed that the lake level decreased at the rate of 0.08 m/a from 1958 to 2004 and increased at the rate of 0.16 m/a from 2004 to 2018.The lake volume decreased by 105.40×10⁸ m³ from 1958 to 2004,with the rate of 2.24×10⁸ m³/a,whereas it increased by 74.02×10⁸ m³ from 2004 to 2018,with the rate of 4.66×10⁸ m³/a.Further,the climate of the Qinghai Lake Basin changed from warm-dry to warm-humid.From 1958 to 2018,the increase in precipitation and the decrease in evaporation controlled the change of the lake volume,which were the main climatic factors affecting the lake volume change.From 1977 to 2018,the measured water yield showed anincrease-decrease-increasefluctuation in the Qinghai Lake Basin.The effects of climate change and LUCC on the measured water yield were obviously different.From 1977 to 2018,the contribution rate of LUCC was -0.76% and that of climate change was 100.76%;the corresponding rates were 8.57% and 91.43% from 1977 to 2004,respectively,and -4.25% and 104.25% from 2004 to 2018,respectively.Quantitative analysis of the effects and contribution rates of climate change and LUCC on the Qinghai Lake volume revealed the scientific significance of climate change and LUCC,as well as their individual and combined effects in the Qinghai Lake Basin and on the QTP.This study can contribute to the water resources management and regional sustainable development of the Qinghai Lake Basin.     

Spatial-temporal variations of ecological vulnerability in the Tarim River Basin,Northwest China

As the largest inland river basin of China, the Tarim River Basin (TRB), known for its various natural resources and fragile environment, has an increased risk of ecological crisis due to the intensive exploitation and utilization of water and land resources. Since the Ecological Water Diversion Project (EWDP), which was implemented in 2001 to save endangered desert vegetation, there has been growing evidence of ecological improvement in local regions, but few studies have performed a comprehensive ecological vulnerability assessment of the whole TRB. This study established an evaluation framework integrating the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and entropy method to estimate the ecological vulnerability of the TRB covering climatic, ecological, and socioeconomic indicators during 2000-2017. Based on the geographical detector model, the importance of ten driving factors on the spatial-temporal variations of ecological vulnerability was explored. The results showed that the ecosystem of the TRB was fragile, with more than half of the area (57.27%) dominated by very heavy and heavy grades of ecological vulnerability, and 28.40% of the area had potential and light grades of ecological vulnerability. The light grade of ecological vulnerability was distributed in the northern regions (Aksu River and Weigan River catchments) and western regions (Kashgar River and Yarkant River catchments), while the heavy grade was located in the southern regions (Kunlun Mountains and Qarqan River catchments) and the Mainstream catchment. The ecosystems in the western and northern regions were less vulnerable than those in the southern and eastern regions. From 2000 to 2017, the overall improvement in ecological vulnerability in the whole TRB showed that the areas with great ecological improvement increased by 46.11%, while the areas with ecological degradation decreased by 9.64%. The vegetation cover and potential evapotranspiration (PET) were the obvious driving factors, explaining 57.56% and 21.55% of the changes in ecological vulnerability across the TRB, respectively. In terms of ecological vulnerability grade changes, obvious spatial differences were observed in the upper, middle, and lower reaches of the TRB due to the different vegetation and hydrothermal conditions. The alpine source region of the TRB showed obvious ecological improvement due to increased precipitation and temperature, but the alpine meadow of the Kaidu River catchment in the Middle Tianshan Mountains experienced degradation associated with overgrazing and local drought. The improved agricultural management technologies had positive effects on farmland ecological improvement, while the desert vegetation in oasis-desert ecotones showed a decreasing trend as a result of cropland reclamation and intensive drought. The desert riparian vegetation in the lower reaches of the Tarim River was greatly improved due to the implementation of the EWDP, which has been active for tens of years. These results provide comprehensive knowledge about ecological processes and mechanisms in the whole TRB and help to develop environmental restoration measures based on different ecological vulnerability grades in each sub-catchment.     

A cultivated area forecasting approach in artificial oases under climate change and human activities

The cultivated area in artificial oases is deeply influenced by global climate change and human activities. Thus, forecasting cultivated area in artificial oases under climate change and human activities is of great significance. In this study, an approach named GD-HM-PSWROAM, consisting of general circulation model downscaling(GD), hydrological model(HM), and planting structure and water resource optimal allocation model(PSWROAM), was developed and applied in the irrigation district of the Manas River Basin in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region of China to forecast the cultivated area tendency. Furthermore, the catchment export of the MIKE11 HD/NAM model was set to the Kensiwate hydrological station. The results show that the downscaling effects of temperature can be fairly satisfying, while those of precipitation may be not satisfying but acceptable. Simulation capacity of the MIKE11 HD/NAM model on the discharge in the Kensiwate hydrological station can meet the requirements of running the PSWROAM. The accuracy of the PSWROAM indicated that this model can perform well in predicting the change of cultivated area at the decadal scale. The cultivated area in the Manas River Basin under current human activities may be generally decreasing due to the climate change. But the adverse effects of climate change can be weakened or even eliminated through positive human activities. The cultivated area in the Manas River Basin may even be increasing under assumed human activities and future climate scenarios. The effects of human activities in the future can be generally predicted and quantified according to the cultivated area trends under current human activities and the situations in the study area. Overall, it is rational and acceptable to forecast the cultivated area tendency in artificial oases under future climate change and human activities through the GD-HM-PSWROAM approach.     

Spatiotemporal changes in water,land use,and ecosystem services in Central Asia considering climate changes and human activities

Central Asia is located in the hinterland of Eurasia, comprising Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, and Tajikistan; over 93.00% of the total area is dryland. Temperature rise and human activities have severe impacts on the fragile ecosystems. Since the 1970s, nearly half the great lakes in Central Asia have shrunk and rivers are drying rapidly owing to climate changes and human activities. Water shortage and ecological crisis have attracted extensive international attention. In general, ecosystem services in Central Asia are declining, particularly with respect to biodiversity, water, and soil conservation. Furthermore, the annual average temperature and annual precipitation in Central Asia increased by 0.30°C/decade and 6.9 mm/decade in recent decades, respectively. Temperature rise significantly affected glacier retreat in the Tianshan Mountains and Pamir Mountains, which may intensify water shortage in the 21^st century. The increase in precipitation cannot counterbalance the aggravation of water shortage caused by the temperature rise and human activities in Central Asia. The population of Central Asia is growing gradually, and its economy is increasing steadily. Moreover, the agricultural land has not been expended in the last two decades. Thus, water and ecological crises, such as the Aral Sea shrinkage in the 21^st century, cannot be attributed to agriculture extension any longer. Unbalanced regional development and water interception/transfer have led to the irrational exploitation of water resources in some watersheds, inducing downstream water shortage and ecological degradation. In addition, accelerated industrialization and urbanization have intensified this process. Therefore, all Central Asian countries must urgently reach a consensus and adopt common measures for water and ecological protection.     

艾比湖流域5种土壤类型的酶活性和理化性质

以艾比湖流域为研究区,研究了荒漠5种类型土壤（黑钙土、栗钙土、棕漠土、灰漠土和灰钙土）的4种酶（过氧化氢酶、磷酸酶、脲酶和蔗糖酶）活性和理化性质（0~15、15~30 cm和30~50 cm土层）,并分析土壤酶活性与理化性质间的相关关系。结果表明：① 黑钙土和栗钙土的土壤理化性质优于其他土壤类型;各类型土壤理化性质的垂直分布表现出一定的规律性,土壤含水率和总盐表现为递减,土壤pH、有机质、全氮和速效磷则表现为递增。② 不同土壤类型的土壤酶活性间存在分异,除黑钙土外,其他类型土壤的酶活性在土壤剖面上递减规律不明显。③ 土壤酶活性间存在不同程度的正相关关系。④ 干旱区土壤酶活性与土壤有机质和全氮呈极显著正相关,与土壤含水率呈显著或极显著正相关,个别土壤酶活性与土壤pH呈显著负相关,与总盐和速效磷相关性不显著。⑤ 不同土壤类型酶活性和理化性质间的相关性表现不一,影响不同土壤类型酶活性的主要理化因子也不同。     

农业面源污染对丰水期艾比湖流域水环境的影响

在2008年5月对艾比湖流域地表水进行了系统采集,运用综合污染指数法对水环境质量进行评价,并分析水体中各形态氮磷含量的分布特征。结果表明:丰水期艾比湖流域水体中主要的氮素形式是NO3--N,各条河流中以博尔塔拉河NO3--N(0.433 mg/L)和TN(3.545 mg/L)含量最高,表明农业面源污染是博尔塔拉河受污染程度高于其他河流的主要原因。奎屯河、精河中NH4+-N(0.251 mg/L,0.249 mg/L)的含量在流域内较高,反应了人类活动的影响在两条河流中起主导作用。艾比湖流域各断面上的TP,TN浓度均较高,博尔塔拉河的TN含量超过Ⅴ类水质标准。整个艾比湖流域TP,TN的含量基本达到了富营养化的水平。     

基于水资源和气候系统影响下的黑河流域生态环境变迁研究

分析了黑河流域生态环境恶化的现状和主要特征,主要表现为沙化加剧,绿洲萎缩;河水断流,湖泊干涸;地下水位下降,水质恶化等。在此基础上分析认为;水分条件是导致生态系统状态变化的主要驱动力,但气候变化在一定程度上加剧了生态环境恶化的进程和严重程度。因此,保护黑河流域本已非常脆弱的生态环境主要从研究水问题入手。除了调整种植业结构,大力发展节水农业;加强水资源管理以及普及节水意识等方面外,更重要的是要创新水问题研究思路,实行虚拟水战略。     

新疆艾比湖流域盐尘分析

通过对艾比湖流域的野外考察,以及沿途访问、咨询,分析了艾比湖流域盐尘的成因、加剧的原因、危害以及提出几点治理的办法。结果表明:艾比湖流域盐尘的成因主要是:阿拉山口强劲的大风;丰富的盐尘源;地表干燥、疏松,植被屏障衰退和丧失。近几年主要由于人类不合理的经济活动,使得盐尘源地扩大和地表状况恶劣,造成艾比湖流域盐尘加剧。盐尘的危害也越来越严重,不仅对工农业和人体造成了严重危害,而且已经危及到天山北坡经济带的持续发展,所以治理盐尘刻不容缓。由结果分析要治理艾比湖流域的盐尘,需要减少提供盐尘的源地,改变地表恶劣的状况。     

艾比湖地区绿洲化与荒漠化过程时空特征分析

以1990、2001和2005年的遥感数据作为数据源,进行景观分类与制图,利用ArcGIS提取了艾比湖地区的绿洲和荒漠景观,使用占补平衡原理和变化检测对比分析了绿洲退缩区和扩张区的数量特征和空间格局,并利用重心迁移模型得出绿洲和荒漠重心的变化趋势。结果表明:1)1990-2005年15年间,研究区绿洲面积不断增加,荒漠面积呈减少趋势,绿洲退缩区的面积为64.28km2,而绿洲扩张区的面积达到了383.63km2。其中,1990-2001年间,绿洲的年平均增长速度最大,为0.93%;2)研究时段内,绿洲的空间变化较大,其扩张区多位于研究区西部以耕地为主的区域和艾比湖湖区周围,绿洲退缩区主要位于研究区的东南部;3)绿洲的重心向西南方向迁移了0.8751km,同时,荒漠先向东南再向东北迁移,迁移距离共为2.0999 km。