A simulation of Johne's disease control

A dynamic and stochastic simulation model (the "JohneSSim model") was developed to evaluate the economic and epidemiological effects of different strategies for control of paratuberculosis in dairy herds. Animals occupy one of the six defined infection states; the spread of Johne's disease is modeled with five infection routes. Many different dairy farm situations can be simulated. Control strategies that can be simulated are: (1) test-and-cull; (2) calf hygiene management; (3) vaccination and (4) grouping of animals. Losses are caused by: (1) reduced milk production; (2) diagnosis and treatment costs; (3) lower slaughter value of cows and (4) sub-optimal culling. The benefits were calculated as reduction in the losses caused by Johne's disease; the costs of each strategy were calculated on the basis of actual costs of each item; and net present value (NPV) was calculated as benefits minus costs. Herd and prevalence data from The Netherlands and Pennsylvania, USA were used. In both situations, a low true mean prevalence within 20 years could be reached only when all calf management tools were applied. The Dutch control program (PPN) was on average economically attractive (with or without labor costs, the average NPV was Euro 1183 and 12,397, respectively). In Pennsylvania, contract heifer rearing and improved calf hygiene reduced the prevalence effectively and had large economic benefits (US$ 43,917 for 20-year period) if the calves were sent to the heifer facility while very young. Validation with data from 21 infected Dutch dairy farms (as well as face-validation: comparison of the results of the JohneSSim model with experiences of Johne's experts) supported the basic assumptions in the model.     

Economic consequences of control programs for paratuberculosis in midsize dairy farms in the United States

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the epidemiologic efficacy and economic efficiency of current and potential future control programs for paratuberculosis (Johne's disease) on midsize dairy herds in the United States. DESIGN: Stochastic dynamic computer simulation model. SAMPLE POPULATION: Data on prices and other input variables collected from various sources were used to represent a population of midsize US dairy herds infected with paratuberculosis. PROCEDURE: The simulation model was modified to reflect management and production characteristics of midsize dairy herds in the United States. The model was validated by use of field data and expert opinion. Various control strategies then were simulated and compared on an epidemiologic basis and on the basis of economic efficiency. RESULTS: Test-and-cull strategies and vaccination against paratuberculosis were not able to decrease the mean prevalence of disease in the United States. Typically, only vaccination was economically attractive. Improved management strategies decreased the prevalence of paratuberculosis considerably and had high economic benefits. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Analysis of results of this study suggests that test-and-cull strategies alone do not reduce the prevalence of paratuberculosis in cattle and are costly for producers to pursue. Vaccination did not reduce the prevalence but was economically attractive. Finally, improved calf-hygiene strategies were found to be critically important in every paratuberculosis control program and most were economically attractive programs for midsize US dairy farms with the disease.     

Prevalence of serum antibodies to Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis in cattle in Galicia (northwest Spain)

Prior to establishing a control and prevention program for Johne's disease in cattle in Galicia (northwest Spain), a survey was conducted to estimate the prevalence of the disease. For this survey, 61,069 animals of at least 1-year of age from 2735 randomly selected herds were bled and samples analyzed with a commercial ELISA. The estimated true individual-level prevalences – assuming the manufacturer's reported test sensitivity of 48.5% and specificity of 98.9% – were 3.02% in dairy cattle, 1.03% in beef cattle and 2.83% in animals from farms with both dairy and beef cattle. True herd prevalences (with herds declared positive if one or more animals tested positive) were 10.69% for dairy herds, 0% for beef herds and 2.71% for mixed herds. When herds were declared positive if at least two animals tested positive, true herd prevalences were 14.75% for dairy herds, 1.47% for beef herds and 12.01% for mixed herds. Assuming a higher specificity of 99.4%, true individual-level prevalences increased to 4.03% in dairy herds, 2.07% in beef herds and 3.84% in mixed herds. Herd prevalences were 27.77%/18.79%, 2.78%/2.40% and 5.70%/12.24% (using the one/two-animal cut-offs) in dairy, beef and mixed herds, respectively. In conclusion, these results seem to indicate that a small percentage of cows and a rather high percentage of dairy herds in this region are MAP-seropositive.     

Characterization of Minnesota dairy herds participating in a Johne's disease control program and evaluation of the program risk assessment tool

The objectives of this study were to: (1) characterize Minnesota dairy herds participating in a Johne's disease control program (JDCP) based on herd size, milk production, and clinical Johne's disease (JD) history, (2) evaluate if change in farm management practices, expressed in risk assessment (RA) total score, is associated with the change between the first and most recent ELISA test herd seroprevalence or change in clinical JD culling rate, and (3) identify farm factors associated with ELISA seroprevalence. A total of 1234 RA, performed between January 2000 and February 2004, were available for analysis from 714 dairy herds. ELISA test results from herd sampling between 2000 and 2004 were obtained from the Minnesota board of animal health (MBAH) database, and were available for 474 herds. Both the first and the most recent ELISA test results for herds with more than one RA were available for 262 herds. Mean herd size and mean annual milk production per cow was higher in JDCP dairy herds (161 milking cows) than either all Minnesota dairy herds or Minnesota dairy herd improvement association (DHIA) herds. For herds with more than one RA available, the most recent RA total score was significantly lower (mean 11% less) than the first. The change in RA total score (and any RA subtotal scores) between the first and most recent RA was not associated with the change between the first and the most recent ELISA within-herd seroprevalence or the change in JD culling rate between the first and most recent RA. The most recent ELISA test results were positively associated with postweaned heifer score and JD culling rate. The RA score was not found to be an effective tool for the prediction of ELISA seroprevalence.     

Culling on low milk yield and its economic consequences for the dairy herd

Voluntary culling on low milk yield and the economic returns for herds with a stable number of milk cows was investigated for spring calving dairy herds in the Republic of Ireland. The analysis was conducted at annual involuntary removal rates: 15, 20 and 25% and replacement costs as percent of beef value 94, 126, 157%. Varying cow replacement rate above involuntary removal rate by voluntary culling increased milk sold per cow in year 16 to a maximum of +5 to +10% after practicing a fixed strategy for 16 years. Greatest absolute and relative gains in yield occur from voluntary culling at the lowest involuntary replacement rate. Voluntary culling up to 3 to 8 percentage units above involuntary cow replacement rate maximizes economic returns per cow in herd when the market price for replacement heifers exceeds 150% of their beef value. Maximum voluntary culling may be practiced for prices near or below beef value.     

Prevalence of Michigan dairy herds infected with Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis as determined by environmental sampling

A cross-sectional, stratified random survey of Michigan dairy herds was conducted to estimate the prevalence of herds infected with Mycobacterium avium paratuberculosis (MAP), the causative agent of Johne's disease, in Michigan using targeted environmental sampling. One pooled sample each from the primary manure storage area and a high-traffic common cow area from each herd was collected and cultured for MAP using the ESP^® culture system II. A herd was classified as positive if at least one sample was culture positive for MAP. State, agricultural district, and herd size stratum prevalence were calculated. Information on past MAP testing and cattle purchase history was collected, and logistic regression was performed to determine their importance to the MAP status of the herd. One hundred twenty-seven herds were contacted, and 94 agreed to participate in the study. The environment of 38 (40.4%) herds cultured positive for MAP. MAP was found in all herds (n = 15) with greater than 200 lactating cows. Herds that had tested for MAP or purchased cattle in the previous 5 years were 4.6 and 3.1 times, respectively, more likely to be infected than herds that had not. MAP continues to be prevalent on Michigan dairy farms, especially those with greater than 200 lactating cows. The environmental sampling protocol used in this study is an economically attractive alternative for monitoring herd level prevalence and the progress of Johne's disease control programs at the state or national level. Implementation of such a program would aid states in monitoring Johne's control program progress, and guide changes over time.     

Prevalence and distribution of paratuberculosis (Johne's disease) in cattle herds in Ireland

A simple random survey was conducted in Ireland during 2005 to estimate the ELISA-prevalence of paratuberculosis, commonly called Johne's disease (JD), in the cattle population. Serum samples were collected from all 20,322 females/breeding bulls over 12 months-of-age in 639 herds. All samples were tested using a commercially available absorbed ELISA. The overall prevalence of infected herds, based on the presence of at least one ELISA-positive animal, was 21.4% (95% CI 18.4%-24.9%). Herd prevalence levels amongst dairy herds (mean 31.5%; 95% CI: 24.6%, 39.3%) was higher than among beef herds (mean 17.9%; 95% CI: 14.6%-21.8%). However, the animal level prevalence was similar. The true prevalence among all animals tested, was calculated to be 2.86% (95%CI: 2.76, 2.97) and for animals >= 2 yrs, it was 3.30% (95%CI: 3.17, 3.43). For animals in beef herds, true prevalence was 3.09% (95%CI: 2.93, 3.24), and for those in dairy herds, 2.74% (95%CI: 2.59, 2.90). The majority of herds had only one ELISA-positive infected animal. Only 6.4% (95% CI 4.7%-8.7%) of all herds had more than one ELISA-positive infected animal; 13.3% (CI 8.7%-19.7%) of dairy herds ranging from two to eight ELISA-positive infected animals; and, 3.9% beef herds (CI 2.4%-6.2%) ranging from two to five ELISA-positive infected animals. The true prevalence of herds infected and shedding Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis is estimated to be 9.5% for all herd types; 20.6% for dairy herds; and 7.6% for beef herds. If ELISA positive animals <2-years-of-age are excluded, the true herd prevalene reduces to: 9.3% for all herd types; 19.6% for dairy herds; and 6.3% for beef herds based on a test specificity (Sp) of 99.8% and test sensitivity (Se) (i.e., ability to detect culture-positive, infected animals shedding at any level) of 27.8-28.9%.     

Herd-level economic losses associated with Johne's disease on US dairy operations

Johne's disease (‘paratuberculosis') is a chronic, infectious, wasting disease that affects dairy cattle. Estimation of its impact on herd productivity and corresponding economic loss on US dairy operations was part of the USDA National Animal Health Monitoring System's (NAHMS) 1996 national dairy study. Johne's-positive herds experience an economic loss of almost US$ 100 per cow when compared to Johne's-negative herds due to reduced milk production and increased cow-replacement costs. For Johne's-positive herds that reported at least 10% of their cull cows as having clinical signs consistent with Johne's disease, economic losses were over US$ 200 per cow. These high-prevalence herds experienced reduced milk production of over 700 kg per cow, culled more cows but had lower cull-cow revenues, and had greater cow mortality than Johne's-negative herds. Averaged across all herds, Johne's disease costs the US dairy industry, in reduced productivity, US$ 22 to US$ 27 per cow or US$ 200 to US$ 250 million annually.     

Economic evaluation of Johne's disease control programs implemented on six Michigan dairy farms

Johne's disease (JD) is an incurable, chronic infectious disease prevalent in dairy herds throughout the US and the world. The substantial economic losses caused by JD have been well documented. However, information on the costs of controlling the disease is limited, yet necessary, if producers are to make sound decisions regarding JD management. The purpose of this paper is to describe a method for evaluating the cost-effectiveness of management changes to control JD on infected dairy farms. A 5-year longitudinal study of six dairy herds infected with JD was performed. Each herd implemented a JD control program upon study enrollment. Prevalence of JD within each herd was monitored with annual testing of all adult cows using fecal culture and/or serum ELISA. Individual cow production and culling information was collected to estimate the annual economic losses caused by JD. An economic questionnaire was developed and administered to each herd annually to estimate costs directly attributable to the JD control program. Based on the costs of the control program, and using the losses to estimate the potential benefits of the control program, the net present value (NPV) of the control program was calculated for each herd during the study and projected into the future for a total of 20 years. The NPV was calculated for four different scenarios: (1) assuming a linear decline in losses beyond the observed period of the study with JD eradication by year 20 of the control program; (2) assuming losses and JD prevalence remain constant at the rate equal to that of the last observed year while continuing the control program; (3) assuming linear increase in losses at rate equal to that in scenario 1 with no control program; and (4) assuming losses remain constant at same level as the beginning of the study with no control plan implemented. The NPV varied greatly across the herds. For scenario 1, only three herds had a positive NPV; and only two herds had a positive NPV under scenario two. In the absence of a control program, the NPV's were always negative. The costs of the JD control programs implemented on these herds averaged $30/cow/year with a median of $24/cow/year. The annual losses due to JD averaged $79/cow/year with a median of $66/cow/year. Investing in a JD control program can be cost-effective.     

Milk quality assurance for paratuberculosis: simulation of within-herd infection dynamics and economics

A bulk milk quality assurance programme for Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (Map) in dairy herds was simulated with a stochastic simulation model (JohneSSim). The aim of this study was to evaluate the epidemiological and economic effects of preventive management measures and various test schemes in a simulated population of closed Dutch dairy herds over a 20-year period. Herds were certified as ;low-Map bulk milk' if, with a certain probability, the concentration of Map in bulk milk did not exceed a maximum acceptable concentration of 10(3) Map organisms per litre (based on pasteurisation studies). The programme started with an initial assessment; test-negative herds entered a surveillance procedure and test-positive herds a control procedure. The simulations showed that herd examinations by ELISA for the initial assessment, surveillance and control procedures effectively ensure the quality of ;low-Map bulk milk': > 75% of simulated herds were certified and > 96% of certified herds produced bulk milk with < 10(3) Map/L if the initial herd-level prevalence was 30%. Preventive management measures only had a minor effect on bulk milk quality of certified herds. Culling based on biennial faecal culture was more effective than culling based on annual ELISA. Average total discounted costs for 20-year participation in a programme consisting of initial assessment by ELISA, surveillance by biennial ELISA and control by biennial faecal culture were 16 Euro x 10(3) per herd. In conclusion, this study shows that a bulk milk quality assurance programme for closed Dutch dairy herds is feasible and provides information on the cost-effectiveness of different programmes. The concepts of this study equally apply to other countries because mechanisms of paratuberculosis infection, disease, and testing are comparable in other dairy cattle populations.     

Economic cost of difficult calvings in the United Kingdom dairy herd

Information on the losses associated with lower milk production and reproductive performance, as well as information from a survey of uk dairy herds using beef semen was used to estimate the economic importance of calving difficulties in uk dairy herds. The survey covered information on cow and calf mortality, cow culling and the need for veterinary assistance, the incidences of which were related to the degree of calving difficulty experienced. The total cost of a slightly difficult calving was estimated to be approximately 110 pounds, and of a seriously difficult calving between 350 pounds and 400 pounds, depending on assumptions of the veterinary costs. However, the major costs were associated with the labour required at the delivery, the increase in the number of days open, and the costs associated with the deaths of cows and calves, and cow culling.     

Simulation of alternatives for the Dutch Johne's disease certification-and-monitoring program

To identify optimal method(s) for certification and subsequent monitoring of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (Map)-unsuspected herds, certification-and-monitoring schemes were studied using a stochastic simulation model ("JohneSSim"). JohneSSim simulated the within-herd transmission and economic aspects of Map in closed Dutch dairy herds. The model was validated with field observations on Map-unsuspected herds. The current Dutch certification-and-monitoring schemes were compared with 11 alternative schemes in which individual and pooled fecal culture, ELISA, Johnin-intradermal test and gamma-IFN ELISA were used, varying the test frequency, tested age group and number of tested animals. On reaching the 'Map-free' status with the standard certification scheme, 11% of the simulated herds were not truly Map-free. Therefore, the designation 'Map-free' should be changed into, for instance, 'low-risk Map'. In the most-attractive alternative certification scheme, the 'Map-free' status was reached after four herd examinations (at 2-year intervals) consisting of serial testing of all cattle > or = 2 years of age with a pooled fecal culture and individual fecal culture of positive pools. This scheme resulted in lower total and annual discounted costs and a lower animal-level prevalence at reaching the 'Map-free' status compared to the standard scheme, assuming that there was no new introduction of the infection. Schemes to monitor the 'Map-free' status were compared, assuming that this status was reached with the standard certification scheme. In comparison to the standard monitoring scheme, none of the alternative monitoring schemes resulted in both a lower animal-level prevalence of undetected pre-existing Map infections in closed herds, and lower median annual discounted costs. Results of the model were very sensitive to the assumed sensitivity of the fecal culture test and to management measures that prevent within-herd transmission of Map. If these preventive measures were taken, the probability of undetected Map infections in closed 'Map-free' herds was decreased substantially.     

Effect of replacement rate,crossbreeding and sexed semen on the efficiency of beef production from dairy herds in Finland

Abstract

In Finland, during the past 10 years, the number of dairy cows has declined considerably leading to decreased domestic beef production which is partly compensated by increased suckler beef production. However, production of meat originating from dairy herds has been shown to be economically more profitable and to produce less greenhouse gas emissions per unit of product than beef production from suckler cow systems. Therefore, when safeguarding beef self-sufficiency, the intensification of beef production from dairy herds is a more promising option to consider. In this study, the possibility of different options for increasing dairy beef production was assessed by using a deterministic simulation. Increasing the use of crossbreeding in dairy herds, especially when combined with the use of Y-sorted semen, appeared to be the most efficient strategy for increasing dairy beef production. The decrease in the replacement rate increased beef production through the potential for enhancing crossbreeding.     

Economic decision analysis model of a paratuberculosis test and cull program.

A spreadsheet program was written to perform decision tree analysis for control of paratuberculosis (Johne's disease), when testing all adults in a herd and culling all animals with positive test results. The program incorporated diagnostic test sensitivity, specificity, and test cost with the cost or value of each of the 4 possible outcomes; true-positive, true-negative, false-positive, and false-negative test results. The program was designed to repeat the analysis for the independent variable pretest paratuberculosis prevalence (0 to 100%). Model output was graphed as profit or loss in dollars vs pretest prevalence. The threshold was defined as the pretest prevalence at which benefit-cost equaled zero. Reed-Frost disease modeling techniques were used to predict the number of Mycobacterium paratuberculosis-infected replacement heifers resulting from infected cows during a control program. Sensitivity analysis was performed on variables of the decision tree model; test sensitivity, specificity, test cost, and factors affecting the cost of paratuberculosis to a commercial dairy. A test and cull program was profitable when paratuberculosis caused greater than or equal to 6% decrease in milk production if the pretest prevalence was greater than 6%, test sensitivity was 50%, test specificity was 98%, and the testing cost was $4/cow. Test specificities greater than 98% did not markedly affect the threshold for tests with a 50% sensitivity and costing $4/cow. Test sensitivity had minimal effect on the threshold. Using a diagnostic test with a 50% sensitivity and a 98% specificity as an example, test cost was shown to affect the threshold prevalence at which the test and cull program became profitable.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)     

Sensitivity of test strategies used in the Voluntary Johne's Disease Herd Status Program for detection of Mycobacterium paratuberculosis infection in dairy cattle herds

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate sensitivities at the herd level of test strategies used in the Voluntary Johne's Disease Herd Status Program (VJDHSP) and alternative test strategies for detecting dairy cattle herds infected with Mycobacterium paratuberculosis. DESIGN: Nonrandom cross-sectional study. SAMPLE POPULATION: 64 dairy herds from Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Colorado, Ohio, and Wisconsin. Fifty-six herds had at least 1 cow shedding M. paratuberculosis in feces; the other 8 herds were free from paratuberculosis. PROCEDURE: For all adult cows in each herd, serum samples were tested for antibodies to M. paratuberculosis with an ELISA, and fecal samples were submitted for bacterial culture for M. paratuberculosis. Sensitivities at the herd level (probability of detecting infected herd) of various testing strategies were then evaluated. RESULTS: Sensitivity at the herd level of the testing strategy used in level 1 of the VJDHSP (use of the ELISA to test samples from 30 cows followed by confirmatory bacterial culture of feces from cows with positive ELISA result) ranged from 33 to 84% for infected herds, depending on percentage of cows in the herd with positive bacterial culture results. If follow-up bacterial culture was not used to confirm positive ELISA results, sensitivity ranged from 70 to 93%, but probability of identifying uninfected herds as infected was 89%. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Results suggest that the testing strategy used in the VJDHSP will fail to identify as infected most dairy herds with a low prevalence of paratuberculosis. A higher percentage of infected herds was detected if follow-up bacterial culture was not used, but this test strategy was associated with a high probability of misclassifying uninfected herds.     

Estimated within-herd prevalence (WHP) of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis in a sample of Minnesota dairy herds using bacterial culture of pooled fecal samples

The objective of this study was to describe the estimated within-herd prevalence (WHP) of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (Map) in a sample of infected dairy herds in Minnesota (N = 66) using test results from bacterial culture of pooled fecal samples. Fecal samples were collected from up to 100 cows in each herd and were tested using bacterial culture in pools of 5 cows based on age order. The mean herd size was 222 (44 to 1500) milking cows; the cows were predominantly Holstein. Using a frequentist approach, the within-herd mean individual fecal prevalence was 10% [95% confidence interval (CI) = 4% to 16%] assuming 70% test sensitivity and 99.5% test specificity. Using Bayesian methods, the estimated true within-herd individual cow prevalence was 14% (95% CI = 7% to 27%). Within-herd prevalence was higher in larger dairy herds than in herds with fewer cows. As Map is the causative agent of Johne's disease (JD), the results of this study could contribute to the success of a nationwide control program for this disease.     

Control of Johne's disease in four commercial dairy herds in Iowa

A 6-year study was conducted in 4 dairy herds in Iowa in which Johne's disease was diagnosed previously. Fecal specimens were collected at 6-month intervals from animals 2 years of age and over for mycobacteriologic examination. Serum samples were obtained at 3-month intervals and tested by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). The antigen used in the ELISA was a potassium chloride extract of a field strain of Mycobacterium paratuberculosis. The ELISA reactions were observed in 87% of the cows from which M. paratuberculosis was isolated. Dairy producers that participated in the Johne's control program reported reduced economic losses. Increased income was attributed to improved milk production, increased value of vaccinated animals sold as replacements to other dairy herds in which Johne's disease had been diagnosed, and the increased market value of slaughter animals removed from the herd.     

Seroprevalence and association with abortion of leptospirosis in cattle in Ontario.

Sera were collected using a systematic random sampling from 348 cattle herds in Ontario, in proportion to the cattle population in different areas. One cow in five from 296 dairy herds and one in three from 52 beef herds were sampled. The sera were analyzed for prevalence of antibodies to Leptospira interrogans serovar grippotyphosa, hardjo, icterohaemorhagiae and pomona using the microscopic agglutination test. Herd seroprevalence (one or more animals with titer greater than or equal to 80) in beef and dairy herds combined was grippotyphosa 2%, hardjo 13.8%, icterohaemorrhagiae 10.1% and pomona 25.8%; 39% of all herds showed evidence of leptospiral infection with one or more serovars; 44.2% of 52 beef herds had serological evidence of infection with serovar hardjo compared to 8.4% of 296 dairy herds (P less than 0.0001). Seroprevalence of other serovars was not significantly different between beef and dairy herds. The proportion of beef animals seropositive for hardjo and for pomona increased with age, particularly for hardjo; 26.5% of beef animals aged nine years or over were seropositive for hardjo. Dairy animals showed a significant rise of hardjo but not pomona titers with age. The seroprevalence of pomona infection was significantly higher in dairy cattle in eastern Ontario than in other regions. Thirty-four (6.1%) of 553 aborted bovine fetuses had leptospires detected by immunofluorescence techniques. Sixty-five percent of these fetuses were from submissions made between November and January. Leptospires were identified as serovar hardjo by specific immunofluorescence. There appeared, however, to be a paradoxical serological response in that eight aborting cows had antibody titers to pomona rather than hardjo.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)     

Predicted costs and benefits of eradicating BVDV from Ireland

Bovine viral diarrhoea virus (BVDV) causes an economically important endemic disease (BVD) of cattle in Ireland and worldwide. Systematic eradication by detection and removal of infectious (BVDV carrier) cattle has been successful in several regions. We therefore assessed the benefits (disease losses avoided) and costs (testing and culling regime) of a potential eradication programme in Ireland. Published bio-economic models of BVDV spread in beef suckler herds and dairy herds were adapted to estimate potential benefits of eradication in Ireland. A simple model of BVDV spread in beef finisher herds was devised to estimate the benefits of eradication in this sector. A six year eradication programme consisting of 5 inter-related virological and serological testing programmes is outlined and costed. We found that the annualised benefits of BVDV eradication in Ireland exceeded the costs by a factor of 5 in the beef suckler sector and a factor of 14 in the dairy sector. Corresponding payback periods were 1.2 and 0.5 years respectively. These results highlight the significant economic impact of BVDV on the Irish cattle industry and suggest a clear economic benefit to eradication using the proposed approach. This type of cost-benefit analysis is considered an essential prerequisite prior to undertaking an eradication campaign of this magnitude.     

Seroprevalence of bluetongue serotype 8 in cattle in the Netherlands in spring 2007, and its consequences

A cross-sectional study was carried out in spring 2007, at the end of the first bluetongue outbreak season, to determine the geographical spread of bluetongue virus serotype 8 (btv-8) infection in cattle in the Netherlands and the consequences for some production parameters. Blood samples from cattle submitted to the laboratory of the Dutch Animal Health Service for other voluntary and obligatory health programmes were tested serologically for btv-8. In total, 37,073 samples were tested and 659 (1.78 per cent) were seropositive. The samples came from 5436 herds, of which 45 per cent of herds had only one sample submitted from them. The prevalence was highest in the south of the country, where the outbreak had started, and decreased towards the north. In 340 herds more than 50 per cent of cattle were tested, of which 156 herds were located in infected compartments, and in 37 of these herds (10.9 per cent) at least one positive cow was detected. The average within-herd prevalence in the 37 herds was 39.3 per cent: 2.2 per cent in 11 dairy herds, 68.4 per cent in 20 small-scale herds and 14 per cent in four suckler cow herds. The prevalence differed significantly between herd types but did not show a geographical trend. The average net return for milk production amounted to euro2417/cow/year and it decreased significantly on average by euro48/cow/year in the bluetongue-infected dairy herds during the bluetongue period. On the small-scale farms, the incidence of mortality increased by 3.2 (95 per cent confidence interval [CI] 1.2 to 9.1) times in the infected herds during the bluetongue period, but the voluntary culling rate decreased by a factor of 2.3 (95 per cent CI 1.1 to 4.8).