西南岩溶地区耕地利用效率及其影响因素

以我国西南岩溶地区为研究区域,从投入和产出2个维度选取耕地利用效率指标,采用数据包络分析（DEA）法对该区112个市2011—2017年耕地利用效率进行分析,以地理探测器模型分析研究影响耕地利用效率的关键因素。结果表明:从时间变化来看,2011—2017年,西南岩溶地区耕地利用综合效率、技术效率和规模效率总体上都呈现“先上升后下降”态势。从空间变化来看,综合效率和技术效率具有中等强度的空间分异性,规模效率具有较弱的空间分异性;耕地利用效率高值区在整个研究区内基本呈连续分布,而低值区呈“插花状”分布。地理探测器分析表明,岩溶比例（q=0.24）、高程（q=0.21）是西南岩溶区耕地利用效率的主要影响因子,影响因素间的交互作用增强了对西南岩溶区耕地利用效率的影响。      

丘陵山区农业机械化现状与发展

农业机械化发展对推进农业现代化建设至关重要,尽管中国农业机械化得到了全程、全面发展,但不同地区之间仍存在较大差异.丘陵山区特殊的地理环境,导致其农业机械化基础薄弱、发展缓慢,极大地限制了中国农业机械化整体水平的提高.系统总结了丘陵山区农业机械化转型升级过程中存在的突出问题,在此基础上建议优先进行农机、农艺高度融合的农田宜机化改造,重点研发特色经济作物生产全程机械化装备,探索集成作物生产智慧管控系统,强化主体培育和政策支持.这不仅有助于解决丘陵山区农业机械化发展难题,补齐丘陵山区农业机械化短板,提高丘陵山区农业生产力水平,还可以充分发挥农业机械化在实现共同富裕中的积极作用,推动乡村振兴战略全面实施,促进中国农业可持续和现代化发展.     

Multi-agent simulation for the targeting of development policies in less-favored areas

Complex combinations of biophysical and socio-economic constraints characterize the less-favored rural areas in developing countries. More so, these constraints are diverse as they vary considerably between households even in the same community. We propose multi-agent systems as a modeling approach well suited for capturing the complexity of constraints as well as the diversity in which they appear at the farm household level. Given that empirical multi-agent models based on mathematical programming share the characteristics of bio-economic farm models plus some additional features, one may interpret bio-economic farm models as a special case of multi-agent models without spatial dimension and direct interaction. Evidently, spatially explicit, connected multi-agent models have higher requirements in terms of development costs, empirical data and validation. Therefore, we see them as a complement, and not a substitute, to existing bio-economic modeling approaches. They might be the preferred model choice when heterogeneity and interactions of agents and environments are significant and, therefore, policy responses cannot be aggregated linearly. We illustrate the strength of empirical multi-agent models with simulation results from Uganda and Chile and indicate how they may assist policymakers in prioritizing and targeting alternative policy interventions especially in less-favored areas.     

The Evaluation Mathematical Model of the Sustainable Development Degree

To build The evaluation mathematical model of the sustainable development degree. Firstly,Chose specific indicators for each evaluation subsystem.Then eliminate unimportant indicators by the principal component analysis. Further give weights to indicators by Monte Carlo Algorithm based on AHP. Ultimately, calculate the index of sustainable development degree.     

玉米生产机械化技术发展回顾

在玉米生产中,玉米的播种和收获方式不同于其他作物,在其机械化生产过程中,专用机械的应用成为必然。针对黄淮海地区玉米种植制度和区域特点,重点结合播种、收获机械技术的最新发展,对玉米生产机械化技术发展情况进行了梳理、回顾。      

LUSE,a decision support system for exploration of rural land use allocation: Application to the Terra Chá district of Galicia (N.W. Spain)

This article describes LUSE, a system for exploration of rural land use allocations (total area devoted to each kind of use) by multiobjective linear programming methods. The objectives pursued are maximization of gross margin, employment in agriculture, land use naturalness and traditional rural landscape, and minimization of production costs and use of agrochemicals. The constraints on the areas devoted to the land uses considered in addition to those imposed by their joint and individual availabilities, are that they must reach levels considered to satisfy existing demand for those uses or their products, and that the areas devoted to maize and fodder must be sufficient for maintenance of dairy farm production. The program generates comprehensive samples of the Pareto-optimal set, and also allows interactive convergence on a solution that is satisfactory to the decision-maker or interactive exploration of the Pareto-optimal set. The system is currently parameterized for use in an area of Galicia (N.W. Spain), but is easily adaptable to other geographic locations.     

Livestock health and socio-economic impacts of a veterinary intervention in Maasailand: Infection-and-treatment vaccine against East Coast fever

In arid and semi-arid rangelands of sub-Saharan Africa, livestock are a central component of rural livelihoods and national economies, but their production is constrained by drought and disease, and exacerbated by institutional barriers and land use restrictions among other factors. Veterinary interventions may make a major difference to production measures but as with any intervention, they can also entail complex ecological and economic implications. This paper analyses the impacts of a vaccination programme for East Coast fever (ECF). ECF is the major cause of death among calves of Maasai pastoralists and agro-pastoralists and a major constraint on the livelihoods of these people. In our study sites, overall annual mortality in the calf crop due to ECF ranges from 30% to 60% depending on the rainfall (the better the rains, the higher the ECF mortalities). Our study explores the implications of vaccination for pastoralist livestock production, development and poverty and considers the potential impacts on rangeland and wildlife.Livestock mortality, sale, slaughter and exchange were measured using a multi-round survey of 72 households and a register of 1528 cattle in two study areas of different ecology and epidemiology. Livestock performance differed between the two areas, with the highland area showing higher background levels of mortality of unvaccinated animals. The infection-and-treatment method of vaccination has a major and highly significant impact on survival in both areas.Uptake of vaccination is strongly associated with a measure of wealth that includes livestock numbers and economic security, and medium and poor pastoralist households find it hard or impossible to access the full benefits of the vaccine.In one study site, vaccination was more frequent for male animals than females, suggesting an investment in vaccination for improved terms of trade. Vaccination could therefore improve livestock production without driving increasing herd numbers. However, the degree to which increasing survival due to vaccination is offset by increasing volume of trade requires further monitoring as those calves vaccinated at the start of the project reach economic maturity. Our study shows no link between vaccine uptake (or volume of trade) and scale of cultivation, suggesting little cross-investment between these livelihood activities. Vaccination potentially holds positive implications for rangeland and wildlife ecology. However, the logistics and economics of access to the vaccine mean that, under the current system of distribution, it could be driving socio-economic differentiation, rather than alleviating poverty. Alternative systems are suggested. Government and donor promotion of this and comparable interventions need to consider the poverty impacts and take measures to widen access.     

农业机械绿色维修技术探讨

随着现代化机械水平的不断提升，自动化技术的不断完善，在各行各业对于机械的使用逐步提升，使用的范围以及使用的程度逐步加大，其中最为显著的一个领域是农业方面，农业机械化生产程度的提升在很大程度上加快了农业的发展以及提升收成质量，但是农业机械的大范围高强度使用存在相应的负面影响，主要是对环境造成危害，对于农业的持续化发展较为不利，文章就农业机械绿色维修技术展开探究分析。     

中国农业机械化的空间异质性与影响因素分析

为了对农业机械化反映变量在区域空间位置变化时呈现出的属性差异进行综合测度并比较,在构建多指标评价体系的基础上,选用2013年的省际面板数据,运用因子分析法进行了区域农业机械化水平的综合评价与影响因素分析。分析结果表明:黑龙江、江苏、山东的综合分值位于全国前3位,机电排灌面积、有效灌溉面积、柴油发动机动力等是影响区域农业机械化水平的最主要影响因素,当前我国农业机械化水平的空间异质性变化与地区农业发展水平基本对应。     

苏北地区大中型农业废弃物沼气工程比较——以金东台模式和马庄模式为例

畜禽粪便与农作物秸秆是重要的农业废弃物资源。基于沼气生产的农业废弃物利用是当前农业废弃物最重要的用途。该研究对金东台模式和马庄模式进行了实地调研和比较分析,结果显示:金东台模式主要利用畜禽粪便进行沼气生产,经济、社会和环境等方面的效益显著,但该模式由于对资金、技术和地理位置要求高而推广受限;马庄模式的社会和环境效益显著,经济效益一般,但在当前推动农村集中居住的背景下发展潜力较大。该文的研究结果可以为苏北及周边地区的其他大中型沼气工程的发展提供有价值的参考。      

Application of GIS and crop growth models in estimating water productivity

Tighter competition in water use is projected in the future. As water demand increases, water related problems could happen along the way. Accordingly, issues on water availability and use could be crucial to study to search for ways and means on how to cope up with the present trend. Sound water management practices could play a key role to the solution of problems relating to water availability and use. Water use in agriculture is considered the highest among other water users because of the water intensive processes involved in it. Aside from the crop water requirements, water loss, which are not beneficial to crop processes can add a huge volume to the total water usage in agriculture. Base from this argument, there could be greater possibility to save water from agriculture, which can be used for other purposes thereafter. To explore this option, analysis at the crop level could be beneficial. However, the issue of scaling should be also considered because the knowledge on the field scale could not be generally true in the basin scale. The objective of the study was to apply crop growth simulation models coupled with geographic information system (GIS) to analyze water productivity, which is an indicator of water use efficiency, at the basin scale.The methodology was applied to Laoag River Basin in Ilocos Norte, Philippines to study water productivity in spatial and temporal dimensions. Three crops were considered in the analysis: rice, maize and peanut. Simulations were done for both existing and potential agricultural areas. The potential productions of the selected crops from October 1996–September 1997 were used as bases in determining water productivity for the three cropping seasons (CS) being considered in the study. Water-limited productions were simulated for each of the crops, for each of the CS in the basin. Moreover, a marginal productivity analysis was done to determine the potential of water for crop production in the basin. Subsequently, the significance of irrigation was emphasized in the analysis when availability of water, and the combination of water and nitrogen (N) are limiting, respectively. The results showed that the spatio-temporal analysis of water productivity could provide substantial information for water saving opportunities and, hence, strategies in irrigated agriculture.     

淮安市耕地时空变化特征及其驱动因素

淮安市地处黄淮平原和江淮平原,境内河湖交错,水系纵横,是江苏省北部的农业大市。研究其耕地时空变化特征及其驱动因素可为保障粮食生产和农业可持续发展提供指导。基于2000、2010和2018年3期土地利用数据,综合土地利用转移矩阵、土地利用动态度和多元逐步回归分析等对2000—2018年淮安市耕地的时空变化特征进行分析,并结合社会经济指标研究其驱动力。2000—2018年耕地减少速度不断加快,减少面积主要集中在清江浦区北部,与城乡工矿居民用地相互转移面积较多。耕地变化受经济发展和收入水平的影响,第三产业是耕地变化的核心驱动力。淮安市在发展经济的同时,需更加重视保护耕地资源,加大土地整治力度,提高土地利用效率,优化土地资源的利用与配置,确保耕地资源可持续利用。      

基于ASP技术的有机田块网络地理信息系统

网络地理信息系统是地理信息系统和网络技术相结合的产物,它借助网络方便快捷的手段和地理信息系统自身特有的分析功能,使人们能够更加有效地管理和利用因特网上的信息。为此,在综合分析了ASP的特点及其开发WebGIS系统的基本方法基础上,构建了基于ASP技术的WebGIS系统结构,以有机田块网络地理信息系统的开发为例,结合实践给出了相关方面的具体应用。     

数字普惠金融发展对农民收入影响的时空分异与收敛性分析

金融体系的运作与农民生产生活息息相关,通过剖析数字普惠金融发展对农民收入的具体影响,为有针对性地制定助农增收策略提供更为准确、可靠的实证依据。基于我国2011—2020年30个省域的面板数据,分别构建面板时空地理加权回归模型与空间收敛模型分析数字普惠金融对农民收入影响的时空分异与收敛特征。研究表明：数字普惠金融发展对农民收入具有显著的积极影响,且影响表现出显著的时空分异特征,不同地区、不同时期的数字普惠金融增收效应存在差异,其系数估计最小值为0.268,最大值为0.633。以新疆为代表的西部偏远地区的数字普惠金融增收效应不断增强,各地区整体差异在快速缩小。空间收敛模型中β绝对收敛与β条件收敛系数估计值分别为-0.165、-0.158,且均为负数,表明数字普惠金融增收效应符合空间收敛特征。数字普惠金融可有效改善传统金融发展的非均衡性,同时可为西部偏远地区农民增收提供赶超渠道,进一步减少农民内部收入不平等现象。     

乡村振兴背景下产业脱贫模式研究*——以海南省临高县为例

发展产业是脱贫地区巩固脱贫攻坚成果同乡村振兴有效衔接的重要基础。脱贫攻坚期,产业扶贫通过开发利用贫困地区的产业资源,组织贫困人口参与并受益,从而促进脱贫。为了解乡村振兴背景下产业脱贫模式的效果,选取海南省临高县脱贫攻坚期的产业脱贫模式作为研究对象,运用层次分析法从政策、经济、社会、生态和技术五个层面综合评价其效果。研究发现,三种产业脱贫模式效果总分值分别为6.217、6.439、6.506,该区域脱贫产业模式效果差距不大,但每个模式中各项指标之间存在一定程度的差距。脱贫模式效果最好的是企业+银行+贫困户模式。建议采取探索脱贫产业利益联结机制、提升脱贫产业集群发展水平、拓宽融资和销售渠道等措施来巩固脱贫攻坚成果同乡村振兴有效衔接。     

基于生态需求评价的北京市生态区位划分研究

从生态需求角度从发,选择生态经济协调度、生态稀缺程度、人文发展水平作为评价指标,在对分指标进行评价的基础上,采用多指标条件判定法进行北京市生态需求程度评价,并据此划分了3个生态分区。结果显示,北京人均生态系统服务价值差距较大,从中心城区到远郊区,生态资源愈来愈稀缺;生态经济协调度中,轻度协调的区域大多位于北京北部的生态涵养区,而首都核心功能区和城市发展新区的经济协调程度多属于轻度冲突;人文发展水平从中心城区到远郊区逐渐降低;生态需求程度从中心城区到远郊区逐步降低。根据生态分区的生态需求不同,针对不同区位的特点提出了生态环境建设的建议,研究可以为区域土地资源合理规划布局与调整、生态用地配置和生态环境保护提供参考和依据。     

山东省耕地多功能耦合协调度时空格局分析

以山东省132个县区为研究单元,构建耕地多功能评价指标体系,评价各县区耕地多功能时空差异,并运用耦合协调度及空间自相关模型对耕地功能耦合作用的时空特征进行分析.研究表明,2005-2015年,山东省耕地各单项功能时空格局变化差异明显,综合功能持续增长,以中值水平为主,农业生产和社会保障功能对耕地综合功能增长有较强的推动...     

安徽省农业旱灾特征及其对粮食生产的影响

分别从旱灾的发生频率、时空分布、发生与发展过程及其对粮食产量的影响等方面,分析了安徽省农业旱灾的特征和变化趋势,以及粮食生产对干旱的响应规律。结果表明,安徽省的旱灾呈现明显周期性波动,轻重灾情交替出现,其波动周期大致为5～10年;严重以上旱灾的发生机遇平均约为4年一次,且旱灾在水旱灾害中所占的比例及其对粮食生产的致灾强度呈增长变化趋势;农业干旱灾害具有明显的区域差异性,安徽淮河流域旱灾的年均成灾面积和粮食减产量均占全省的70%左右。粮食减产率与旱灾成灾率二者之间呈现一定的正相关关系,即随着成灾率的增加粮食减产率呈上升趋势,其拟合关系以多项式较为理想,为减轻粮食灾害损失、进行旱灾治理的重点区域是该省的淮北平原和江淮丘陵粮食主产区。     

丘陵山区农业机械化发展研究——重庆经验

我国农业机械化的发展呈现出区域发展不平衡的态势,丘陵山区的农业机械化程度远远低于全国平均水平,已成为我国农业机械化发展亟需解决的问题和重点突破的瓶颈。为此,以丘陵山区地形典型的重庆为主要分析对象,阐述了重庆创新性地积极探索丘陵山区农业机械化的发展的方法。近年来,重庆坚持农机推广、农机工业发展、特色主导农产品与特殊农机结合和分区域因地制宜发展等方式,采取因地制宜、分类发展、重点突破的手段,为丘陵山区农业机械化的发展积累并提供了可供借鉴的经验。