Responses of crop yield and water use efficiency to climate change in the North China Plain

Based on future climate change projections offered by IPCC, the responses of yields and water use efficiencies of wheat and maize to climate change scenarios are explored over the North China Plain. The climate change projections of 21st century under A2A, B2A and A1B are from HadCM3 global climate model.A climate generator (CLIGEN) is applied to generate daily weather data of selected stations and then the data is used to drive CERES-Wheat and Maize models. The impacts of increased temperature and CO₂ on wheat and maize yields are inconsistent. Under the same scenario, wheat yield ascended due to climatic warming, but the maize yield descended. As a more probable scenario, climate change under B2A is moderate relative to A2A and A1B. Under B2A in 2090s, average wheat yield and maize yield will respectively increase 9.8% and 3.2% without CO₂ fertilization in this region. High temperature not only affects crop yields, but also has positive effect on water use efficiencies, mainly ascribing to the evapotranspiration intensification. There is a positive effect of CO₂ enrichment on yield and water use efficiency. If atmospheric CO₂ concentration reaches nearly 600 ppm, wheat and maize yields will increase 38% and 12% and water use efficiencies will improve 40% and 25% respectively, in comparison to those without CO₂ fertilization. However, the uncertainty of crop yield is considerable under future climate change scenarios and whether the CO₂ fertilization may be realized is still needed further research.     

Bio-economic assessment of climate change impacts on managed grassland production

In order to analyze impacts of climate change on managed grassland systems and to project potential changes in farmers’ management practices in response to altered climatic conditions, we develop a modeling approach that integrates a process-based grassland model into an economic model. This economic model describes farmers’ decision making with respect to input use and accounts for production levels, production risks, fodder quality as determined by the grassland composition, and environmental protection. We apply the bio-economic model to an intensively managed grassland system with a geographic focus on the Swiss Plateau. Our results show an increase of future production risks in grassland production due to climate change. Projected changes in yield levels, grassland composition and optimal responses of risk-averse farmers are dependent on the assumptions concerning cross-compliance obligations, forage quality and particularly on the assumed effect of elevated CO₂ concentrations: Grasslands yields will increase under future climatic conditions only if the benefits of rising atmospheric CO₂ concentrations are taken into account. Without this potential benefit, climate change will lead to less intensive input use and lower grassland yields.     

Climate change affects farm nitrogen loss – A Swiss case study with a dynamic farm model

The response of arable crops and grasslands to climatic changes and increasing CO₂ concentration has implications for the operation of farms, in particular for the management of resources such as nitrogen. A simple dynamic farm model (Stella^© model ‘CH-Farm’) was used to analyze the shift in the ratio of N lost via leaching, denitrification and volatilization to N exported with products from dairy or arable production (here defined as relative N loss). The model was run for two types of farms typical of Swiss conditions. Growth parameters for two sequentially grown crops (winter wheat and maize) and grass were determined with the process-oriented models Pasture Simulation Model (PaSim) and CropSyst, respectively. CH-Farm was forced with two assumptions about the transient change in temperature and precipitation, and with or without CO₂ effects. Relative N loss for the baseline was around 1.33 for the dairy-type farm and around 1.05 for the arable-type farm and increased progressively over the 100-year simulation period, with the largest shift in response to the dry/hot scenario. Soil N pools decreased with all scenarios, but at different rates. CO₂ fertilization alleviated the effect of climate change due to increased productivity and N fixation in plants. Adjustment of the growth parameters to progressively increasing temperatures reduced the difference between farm types and positively affected relative N losses mainly through increased productivity and reduced fallow periods between crops. The results suggest that the impact of climate change on relative farm-level N loss depends on physiological adjustments to climatic scenarios, whereas the distribution of land between dairy and arable crop production is less important, and that simple cultivar adjustments can help to mitigate negative effects of climate change on farm-level N use.     

Crop coefficients for winter wheat in a sub-humid climate regime

Estimations of evapotranspiration (ET) from natural surfaces are used in a large number of applications such as agricultural water management and water resources planning. Lack of reliable, cheap and easy-to-use instruments, associated with the chaotic and varying nature of the meteorological and plant physiological factors influencing ET cause these estimations to be based on calculated values rather than the measured ones. The two-step approach where ET from a reference crop is calculated and multiplied by empirical crop coefficients to obtain ET from a crop has gained wide acceptance. Daily coefficients for a winter wheat crop growing under standard conditions, i.e. not short of water and growing under optimal agronomic conditions, were estimated for a cold sub-humid climate regime. One of the two methods used to estimate ET from a reference crop required net radiation (R_n) as input. Two sets of coefficients were used for calculating R_n. Weather data from a meteorological station was used to estimate R_n and ET from the reference crop. The winter wheat ET was measured using an eddy covariance system during the main parts of the growing seasons 2004 and 2005. The meteorological data and field measurements were quality controlled and discarded from the analysis if flagged for errors. Daily values of ET from the reference crop and winter wheat calculated from hourly values were used to calculate the crop coefficients. Average daily crop coefficients were in the 1.1–1.15 range during mid-season with standard deviations ranging from 0.13 to 0.23 for both years. These values exceed values used in some sub-humid climate regime studies, but agree well with values from the international literature.     

Crop yield responses to climate change in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain of China

Global climate change may impact grain production as atmospheric conditions and water supply change, particularly intensive cropping, such as double wheat-maize systems. The effects of climate change on grain production of a winter wheat-summer maize cropping system were investigated, corresponding to the temperature rising 2 and 5 °C, precipitation increasing and decreasing by 15% and 30%, and atmospheric CO₂ enriching to 500 and 700 ppmv. The study focused on two typical counties in the Huang-Huai-Hai (3H) Plain (covering most of the North China Plain), Botou in the north and Huaiyuan in the south, considering irrigated and rain-fed conditions, respectively. Climate change scenarios, derived from available ensemble outputs from general circulation models and the historical trend from 1996 to 2004, were used as atmospheric forcing to a bio-geo-physically process-based dynamic crop model, Vegetation Interface Processes (VIP). VIP simulates full coupling between photosynthesis and stomatal conductance, and other energy and water transfer processes. The projected crop yields are significantly different from the baseline yield, with the minimum, mean (±standardized deviation, SD) and maximum changes being −46%, −10.3 ± 20.3%, and 49%, respectively. The overall yield reduction of −18.5 ± 22.8% for a 5 °C increase is significantly greater than −2.3 ± 13.2% for a 2 °C increase. The negative effect of temperature rise on crop yield is partially mitigated by CO₂ fertilization. The response of a C3 crop (wheat) to the temperature rise is significantly more sensitive to CO₂ fertilization and less negative than the response of C4 (maize), implying a challenge to the present double wheat-maize systems. Increased precipitation significantly mitigated the loss and increased the projected gain of crop yield. Conversely, decreased precipitation significantly exacerbated the loss and reduced the projected gain of crop yield. Irrigation helps to mitigate the decreased crop yield, but CO₂ enrichment blurs the role of irrigation. The crops in the wetter southern 3H Plain (Huaiyuan) are significantly more sensitive to climate change than crops in the drier north (Botou). Thus CO₂ fertilization effects might be greater under drier conditions. The study provides suggestions for climate change adaptation and sound water resources management in the 3H Plain.     

Effects of rising atmospheric CO2 on crop evapotranspiration in a Mediterranean area

In the assessment of plant response to the climate changes, the effects of CO₂ increase in the atmosphere and the subsequent rise of temperatures must be taken into account for their effects on crop physiology. In Mediterranean areas, a decrease of water availability and a more frequent occurrence of drought periods are expected. The objective of this study was to assess the impact of elevated CO₂ concentration and high temperature on reference evapotranspiration (ETo) and crop evapotranspiration (ETc) in the Mediterranean areas. The Penman-Monteith equation was used to simulate the future changes of reference evapotranspiration (ETo) by the recalibration of the canopy resistance parameter. Besides, crop coefficients (Kc) were adjusted according to the future climate trend. Then the modified empirical model (ETc = ETo × Kc) was applied providing an effective quantification of the climate change impact on water use of irrigated crops grown in Mediterranean areas. In the studied area, water use assessment was carried out for the period from 1961 to 2006 (measured data) and for a period from 2071 until 2100 (simulated data), showing a future climatic scenario. Water and irrigation use of crops will change as a function of climate changes, thermal needs of single crops and time of the year when they grow. Climate simulation model foresees the tendency for a significant increase of temperatures and a decrease of total year rainfall with a change of their distribution. The temperature increase and the concomitant expected rainfall decrease lead to a rise of year potential water deficit. About the autumn-spring crops, as wheat, a further increase of water deficit, is not expected. On the contrary, for spring-summer crops as tomato, a significant increase of water deficit and thus of irrigation need, is foreseen. Actually, for crops growing in that period of the year, the substantial rise of evapotranspiration demand cannot be compensated by crop cycle reduction and partial stomatal closure.     

Evaluating the Crop Water Stress Index and its correlation with latent heat and CO2 fluxes over winter wheat and maize in the North China plain

Plant water status is a key factor impacting crop growth and agricultural water management. Crop water stress may alter canopy temperature, the energy balance, transpiration, photosynthesis, canopy water use efficiency, and crop yield. The objective of this study was to calculate the Crop Water Stress Index (CWSI) from canopy temperature and energy balance measurements and evaluate the utility of CWSI to quantify water stress by comparing CWSI to latent heat and carbon dioxide (CO₂) flux measurements over canopies of winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and summer maize (Zea mays L.). The experiment was conducted at the Yucheng Integrated Agricultural Experimental Station of the Chinese Academy of Sciences from 2003 to 2005. Latent heat and CO₂ fluxes (by eddy covariance), canopy and air temperature, relative humidity, net radiation, wind speed, and soil heat flux were averaged at half-hour intervals. Leaf area index and crop height were measured every 7 days. CWSI was calculated from measured canopy-air temperature differences using the Jackson method. Under high net radiation conditions (greater than 500 W m⁻²), calculated values of minimum canopy-air temperature differences were similar to previously published empirically determined non-water-stressed baselines. Valid measures of CWSI were only obtained when canopy closure minimized the influence of viewed soil on infrared canopy temperature measurements (leaf area index was greater than 2.5 m² m⁻²). Wheat and maize latent heat flux and canopy CO₂ flux generally decreased linearly with increases in CWSI when net radiation levels were greater than 300 W m⁻². The responses of latent heat flux and CO₂ flux to CWSI did not demonstrate a consistent relationship in wheat that would recommend it as a reliable water stress quantification tool. The responses of latent heat flux and CO₂ flux to CWSI were more consistent in maize, suggesting that CWSI could be useful in identifying and quantifying water stress conditions when net radiation was greater than 300 W m⁻². The results suggest that CWSI calculated by the Jackson method under varying solar radiation and wind speed conditions may be used for irrigation scheduling and agricultural water management of maize in irrigated agricultural regions, such as the North China Plain.     

Sensitivity of groundwater recharge under irrigated agriculture to changes in climate, CO2 concentrations and canopy structure

Estimating groundwater recharge in response to increased atmospheric CO₂ concentration and climate change is critical for future management of agricultural water resources in arid or semi-arid regions. Based on climate projections from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, this study quantified groundwater recharge under irrigated agriculture in response to variations of atmospheric CO₂ concentrations (550 and 970 ppm) and average daily temperature (+1.1 and +6.4 °C compared to current conditions). HYDRUS 1D, a model used to simulate water movement in unsaturated, partially saturated, or fully saturated porous media, was used to simulate the impact of climate change on vadose zone hydrologic processes and groundwater recharge for three typical crop sites (alfalfa, almonds and tomatoes) in the San Joaquin watershed in California. Plant growth with the consideration of elevated atmospheric CO₂ concentration was simulated using the heat unit theory. A modified version of the Penman-Monteith equation was used to account for the effects of elevated atmospheric CO₂ concentration. Irrigation amount and timing was based on crop potential evapotranspiration. The results of this study suggest that increases in atmospheric CO₂ and average daily temperature may have significant effects on groundwater recharge. Increasing temperature caused a temporal shift in plant growth patterns and redistributed evapotranspiration and irrigation water use earlier in the growing season resulting in a decrease in groundwater recharge under alfalfa and almonds and an increase under tomatoes. Elevating atmospheric CO₂ concentrations generally decreased groundwater recharge for all crops due to decreased evapotranspiration resulting in decreased irrigation water use. Increasing average daily temperature by 1.1 and 6.4 °C and atmospheric CO₂ concentration to 550 and 970 ppm led to a decrease in cumulative groundwater recharge for most scenarios. Overall, the results indicate that groundwater recharge may be very sensitive to potential future climate changes.     

Effects of elevated CO2 concentration on growth and water use efficiency of winter wheat under two soil water regimes

Winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L. cv. Kenong9204) was grown in open top chambers with either ambient or elevated CO₂ concentrations (358 ± 19 μmol mol⁻¹ or 712 ± 22 μmol mol⁻¹, respectively) in well-watered or drought conditions. Although elevated CO₂ did not significantly affect the height of the plants at harvest, it significantly increased the aboveground biomass by 10.1% and the root/shoot ratio by 16.0%. Elevated CO₂ also significantly increased the grain yield (GY) by 6.7% when well-watered and by 10.4% when drought stressed. Specifically, in the well-watered condition, this increase was due to a greater number of ears (8.7% more) and kernels (8.6). In the drought condition, it was only due to a greater number of spikes (17.1% more). In addition, elevated CO₂ also significantly increased the water use efficiency (WUE) of the plants by 9.9% when well-watered and by 13.8% under drought conditions, even though the evapotranspiration (ET) of the plants did not change significantly. Elevated CO₂ also significantly increased the root length in the top half of the soil profile by 35.4% when well-watered and by 44.7% under drought conditions. Finally, elevated CO₂ significantly increased the root water uptake by 52.9% when well-watered and by 10.1% under drought conditions. These results suggest that (1) future increases in atmospheric CO₂ concentration may have a significant effect on wheat production in arid and semiarid areas where wheat cultivation requires upland cropping or deficit irrigation; (2) wheat cultivars can be developed to have more tillers and kernels through selective breeding and field management; and (3) fertilizer and water management in topsoil will become increasingly important as atmospheric CO₂ concentration rises.     

Comparative performance of different crop production functions for wheat (Triticum aestivum L.)

Summary Experiments were conducted for wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) grown in the lysimeters with controlled irrigation at Berlin (FRG) and in field plots at Hisar (India) under different climatic conditions. Crop production functions, relating crop yield with evapotranspiration with and without the consideration of the time of water deficit during crop growth period, were derived. The derived functions and those previously obtained by different workers were tested against the experimental data. There was a significant correlation of seasonal evapotranspiration with yield that was slightly higher for dry matter than for grain. The correlation, which was quite high for linear functions, was slightly greater for nonlinear functions. The correlation was also slightly improved if evapotranspiration for different growth stages was considered rather than total seasonal evapotranspiration. Since there apears to be no single equation that fits all of the conditions studied and since different equations lead to different conclusions, it is suggested that the crop production functions considering evapotranspiration at different growth stages be used with caution. In general the degree of sensitivity of grain yield and dry matter yield to water stress for wheat cultivar WH 283 grown in field experiments under semi-arid climate decreased in the order of crop growth sub-periods I (Sowing to heading), III (Milk ripe to ripe), and II (Heading to milk ripe). However, the sensitivity of the grain yield and dry matter yield to water stress for wheat cultivar Kolibiri grown in lysimeter experiments under humid climate decreased in the order of the growth sub-periods i.e. I, II, and III.     

Potential benefits of early vigor and changes in phenology in wheat to adapt to warmer and drier climates

Developing crop cultivars with novel traits could help agriculture adapt to climate change. As introducing new traits into crops is expensive and time consuming, it is helpful to develop methods which can test whether a potential new plant trait increases or maintains production in future climates. We used a crop-soil simulation model (APSIM-Nwheat) to test whether changes in physiological traits, related to early vigor and flowering time, would result in increased yield when compared to traditional cultivars of wheat grown at higher temperatures, elevated atmospheric CO₂ and lower rainfall in a Mediterranean climate. Early vigor was simulated by changing four different plant traits. The impact of each trait on grain yield varied with climate scenario and soil type. Higher specific leaf area had minimal effect on yield for the historical climate, but it could increase production in future warmer climates. Increased rooting depth generally had a positive impact on yield, while lower radiation use efficiency and earlier flowering tended to reduce yield. The interaction between these traits was generally positive, and our results indicate that early vigor may improve yield for a range of future climate scenarios. However, in the low rainfall regions, early vigor is unlikely to compensate for rainfall reductions of ?30%. Yield gains for early vigor are likely to be larger on sandy loam than on heavier clay soil.The simulation of cultivars differing in flowering time showed that in drier climates earlier flowering cultivars increase potential yield while in warming climates later cultivars increase yield.In conclusion, our analyses suggest that there is great potential for adapting wheat systems to climate change by introducing cultivars with new traits. Our results also show how simulation analyses can assist plant breeders in determining which traits could be important for crop production in future climates.     

Water–yield relationships and optimal water management for winter wheat in the Loess Plateau of China

High evaporative demand and limited precipitation restrict the yield of winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) grown in the Loess Plateau of China under semiarid climatic conditions. Grain yield can be improved by effective water management practices. A 13-year field experiment was conducted at the CERN Changwu Agro-ecological Experimental Station of the Loess Plateau to determine optimal irrigation strategies under limited water supply and to develop relationships among grain yield (Y), seasonal evapotranspiration (SET) and water-use efficiency (WUE). The experiment consisted of five irrigation treatments and three blocks. Measurements included grain yield, soil water content at various depth intervals in the 0–3,000 mm layer, irrigation amount, and precipitation. Results showed that winter wheat grown in this area experienced serious water stress during critical growth stages for the no-irrigation treatment. The amount and timing of irrigation had an important effect on grain yield, but significant differences in yield were not observed between the three-irrigation and the four-irrigation treatments. Grain yield was linearly related (R²=0.66) to SET, but differences in WUE were not significant for any of the treatments. The relationship between WUE and Y was best represented by a second order polynomial (R²=0.65) consisting of a nearly linear portion between 1.5 and 5.0 Mg ha^–1. Optimum water management of winter wheat in the Loess Plateau should consist of three 87.5 mm irrigations applied at stem elongation, booting, and anthesis.Communicated by J.E. Ayars     

Evaluation on the irrigation and fertilization management practices under the application of treated sewage water in Beijing, China

Irrigation and fertilization management practices play important roles in crop production. In this paper, the Root Zone Water Quality Model (RZWQM) was used to evaluate the irrigation and fertilization management practices for a winter wheat–summer corn double cropping system in Beijing, China under the irrigation with treated sewage water (TSW). A carefully designed experiment was carried out at an experimental station in Beijing area from 2001 to 2003 with four irrigation treatments. The hydrologic, nitrogen and crop growth components of RZWQM were calibrated by using the dataset of one treatment. The datasets of other three treatments were used to validate the model performance. Most predicted soil water contents were within ±1 standard deviation (S.D.) of the measured data. The relative errors (RE) of grain yield predictions were within the range of −26.8% to 18.5%, whereas the REs of biomass predictions were between −38% and 14%. The grain nitrogen (N) uptake and biomass N uptake were predicted with the RE values ranging from −13.9% to 14.7%, and from −11.1% to 29.8%, respectively. These results showed that the model was able to simulate the double cropping system variables under different irrigation and fertilization conditions with reasonable accuracy. Application of RZWQM in the growing season of 2001–2002 indicated that the best irrigation management practice was no irrigation for summer corn, three 83 mm irrigations each for pre-sowing, jointing and heading stages of winter wheat, respectively. And the best nitrogen application management practice was 120 kg N ha⁻¹ for summer corn and 110 kg N ha⁻¹ for winter wheat, respectively, under the irrigation with TSW. We also obtained the alternative irrigation management practices for the hydrologic years of 75%, 50% and 25%, respectively, in Beijing area under the conditions of irrigation with TSW and the optimal nitrogen application.     

Maize ethanol feedstock production and net energy value as affected by climate variability and crop management practices

Ethanol from various plant resources, especially maize, is increasingly being used as a substitute for fossil fuels. The production potential of ethanol from maize varies with weather and climatic conditions and crop management practices. The merits and prospects of ethanol production have been evaluated based on its impact on greenhouse gas emissions, economic viability and national energy security. The net energy value (NEV), i.e. the output energy after all non-renewable energy inputs have been accounted for, is a measure of energy gain. At the same time, the NEV can be an indicator for the long-term sustainability of bio-ethanol production, regardless of other conditions e.g. climate change scenarios, global trade restrictions, or local variability in natural resources such as water availability. Crop management practices directly affect the NEV of ethanol. Moreover, both crop management practices and climate variability affect the NEV through the grain yield. The objective of this study was to assess the impact of crop management practices and climate variability on grain yield of maize for ethanol production and ethanol NEV for conditions that represent the southeastern USA. Maize grain yield was simulated with the dynamic crop growth model CSM–CERES–Maize and ethanol NEV was calculated using the simulated yield levels and crop management practices. The simulations were conducted for conditions representing Mitchell County, Georgia, USA, using weather data from 1939 to 2006 and local soil profile information. The impact of irrigation, nitrogen fertilizer, planting date and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases were determined for the maize cultivars DeKalb DKC 61-72 (RR2), Pioneer 31D58 and Pioneer 31G98. Crop management practices and ENSO phase had a significant impact on ethanol feedstock production and NEV. The NEV of ethanol produced from irrigated maize was more than two times higher and varied less than the NEV of ethanol from rainfed maize. NEV of ethanol produced from maize grown during La Niña years was significantly higher than maize grown during El Niño years, both under rainfed and irrigated conditions. This study showed the importance of crop management practices and climate variability on ethanol feedstock productivity and long-term energy sustainability as assessed by the NEV. We discuss methods of implementing the findings of this study in practical farming e.g. through market mechanisms and governmental initiatives.     

On the conservative behavior of biomass water productivity

The ever-increasing demand and competition for the finite water resource worldwide call for more efficient use of water in all sectors, including firstly agricultural food production. One important consideration is the existence of a limit to the amount of biomass a crop can produce per unit of water consumed. This article analyzes the theoretical background and the experimental evidence for the conservative behavior of the efficiency in water use by crops to produce biomass, i.e., biomass water productivity (WP_b), under variable environmental conditions. Particularly, WP_b is approximately constant for a given crop species after normalization for evaporative demand of the atmosphere and air carbon dioxide concentration. A stepwise scaling up approach, from leaf to canopy, is undertaken to underline the processes involved at the different hierarchical levels of biological organization that lead to the conservative behavior of WP_b. Starting at the leaf level, the basic gas exchange equations are outlined to demonstrate that the normalized photosynthetic WP_b at the leaf scale is proportional to the ambient CO₂ concentration. New experimental evidence in support of that conclusion is presented for several C₃ and a C₄ crops. Additional factors are introduced to assess photosynthetic WP_b at the canopy scale, including the extent of radiation capture and the role of respiration. The composition of biomass was then considered in the analysis of WP_b over a season. The paper highlights the need to normalize WP_b for differences in climate, specifically, in evaporative demand of the atmosphere to extrapolate WP_b values between climatic zones, and in atmospheric CO₂ concentration to account for changes in CO₂ with time, when looking at the past and into the future. Two procedures for normalization for differences in evaporative demand are presented, and a procedure for normalization for changes in CO₂ concentration is derived for the leaf scale and shown to be applicable to canopy scale. Some knowledge gaps and research needs are pointed out and the potential offered by the near constancy of normalized WP_b in crop simulation modeling is emphasized.     

Stability of crop coefficients under different climate and irrigation management practices

Summary The effects to climate and management practices on crop water requirement coefficients were studied for a soybean crop growing on a sandy soil using a mechanistic model that computes evaporation and transpiration in response to soil, crop, and climatic factors. It was found that seasonal errors could the as high as 190 mm when crop coefficients developed under one set of conditions were used under different climate and management conditions. The largest error in ET occurred when vapor pressure was reduced from 26 mb to 14 mb; next in importance were site differences in wind speed, radiation, irrigation interval, temperature and planting date. Correction factors needed to adjust crop coefficients to those site specific conditions ranged from 0.73 to 1.30 depending on the time of season and climate or management variable that was changed. When the overall crop coefficient was divided into a plant specific and a soil specific coefficients, the plant coefficient was relatively stable compared to soil coefficients. The results of this study can help establish a practical range of conditions over which crop coefficients developed at one site can be used to compute the appropriate values for sites where measurements have not been made.Approved for publication as Florida Agricultural Experiment Station Journal Series No. 9514. This research was partially supported by the US AID project, International Benchmark Sites Network for Agrotechnology Transfer, No. DAN-4054-c-00-2071-00     

Effect of precipitation change on water balance and WUE of the winter wheat-summer maize rotation in the North China Plain

Limited precipitation restricts crop yield in the North China Plain, where high level of production depends largely on irrigation. Establishing the optimal irrigation scheduling according to the crop water requirement (CWR) and precipitation is the key factor to achieve rational water use. Precipitation data collected for about 40 years were employed to analyze the long-term trend, and weather data from 1984 to 2005 were used to estimate the CWR and irrigation water requirements (IWR). Field experiments were performed at the Luancheng Station from 1997 to 2005 to calculate the soil water consumption and water use efficiency (WUE). The results showed the CWR for winter wheat and summer maize were similar and about 430 mm, while the IWR ranged from 247 to 370 mm and 0 to 336 mm at the 25% and 75% precipitation exceedance probabilities for winter wheat and summer maize, respectively. The irrigation applied varied in the different rainfall years and the optimal irrigation amount was about 186, 161 and 99 mm for winter wheat and 134, 88 and 0 mm for summer maize in the dry, normal and wet seasons, respectively. However, as precipitation reduces over time especially during the maize growing periods, development of water-saving management practices for sustainable agriculture into the future is imperative.     

Cropping systems and crop residue management in the Trans-Gangetic Plains: Issues and challenges for conservation agriculture from village surveys

Conservation agriculture practices are being advocated to help sustain crop productivity gains and secure environmental sustainability in the Trans-Gangetic Plains, India’s Green Revolution heartland. The paper illustrates the use of village surveys as a quasi-quantitative system analysis tool to derive implications for agricultural research and development. Drawing from village surveys in 170 communities, the paper assesses current crop residue management practices in Punjab and Haryana’s rice-wheat, basmati-wheat and non-rice-wheat cropping systems. The prevalence of wheat as the winter crop implies an intensive collection, trading and use of wheat straw as basal feed for dairy livestock; which contrasts with the diverse crop residue management of the monsoon crops. The increased use of combine harvesters has spurred the rapid advent of mechanical wheat straw reapers whereas the bulk of combine harvested rice straw is burned in situ. Present crop residue management practices are largely incompatible with year-round mulch retention despite significant biomass production. The research and development community faces the challenge of evening out straw use and management over seasons to ensure at least partial residue retention if its calls for conservation agriculture in this important sub-region are to succeed. The paper also reiterates the worrying decline of groundwater tables associated with the rice-wheat system.     

Changes in evapotranspiration over irrigated winter wheat and maize in North China Plain over three decades

Evapotranspiration (ET) is an important component of the water cycle at field, regional and global scales. This study used measured data from a 30-year irrigation experiment (1979-2009) in the North China Plain (NCP) on winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and summer maize (Zea mays L.) to analyze the impacts of climatic factors and crop yield on ET. The results showed that grass reference evapotranspiration (ET_o, calculated by FAO Penmen-Monteith method) was relatively constant from 1979 to 2009. However, the actual seasonal ET of winter wheat and maize under well-watered condition gradually increased from the 1980s to the 2000s. The mean seasonal ET was 401.4 mm, 417.3 mm and 458.6 mm for winter wheat, and 375.7 mm, 381.1 mm and 396.2 mm for maize in 1980s, 1990s and 2000s, respectively. The crop coefficient (K_c) was not constant and changed with the yield of the crops. The seasonal average K_c of winter wheat was 0.75 in the 1980s, 0.81 in the 1990s and 0.85 in the 2000s, and the corresponding average grain yield (GY) was 4790 kg ha⁻¹, 5501 kg ha⁻¹ and 6685 kg ha⁻¹. The average K_c of maize was 0.88 in the 1980s, 0.88 in the 1990s and 0.94 in the 2000s, with a GY of 5054 kg ha⁻¹, 7041 kg ha⁻¹ and 7874 kg ha⁻¹, respectively, for the three decades. The increase in ET was not in proportion to the increase in GY, resulting improved water use efficiency (WUE). The increase in ET was possibly related to the increase in leaf stomatal conductance with renewing in cultivars. The less increase in water use with more increase in grain production could be partly attributed to the significant increase in harvest index. The results showed that with new cultivars and improved management practices it was possible to further increase grain production without much increase in water use.     

气候变化对区域农业灌溉用水影响分析

从气候变化对区域灌溉用水影响机理入手,利用区域经济发展、灌溉用水、种植结构等因素之间动态反馈关系,采用系统动力学建模方法,构建了气候变化背景下灌溉用水响应模型,分析了未来不同气候情景下宝鸡峡灌区灌溉用水的变化过程。结果表明,随着未来气温升高趋势的增加,灌溉用水亦呈明显升高趋势,不同情景稍有差异,但差别不大,而不同作物间差异较大。以B1情景为例,温度升高1℃,灌区内灌溉净需水量约增加12050×104m3,毛需水量约增加20080×104m3,灌区内小麦单位面积约增加需水量28m3/亩;玉米约增加8m3/亩,这可能与冬小麦和夏玉米生育期的变化有关,应进一步加强研究。