Advances in application of climate prediction in agriculture

Agricultural ecosystems and their associated business and government systems are diverse and varied. They range from farms, to input supply businesses, to marketing and government policy systems, among others. These systems are dynamic and responsive to fluctuations in climate. Skill in climate prediction offers considerable opportunities to managers via its potential to realise system improvements (i.e. increased food production and profit and/or reduced risks). Realising these opportunities, however, is not straightforward as the forecasting skill is imperfect and approaches to applying the existing skill to management issues have not been developed and tested extensively. While there has been much written about impacts of climate variability, there has been relatively little done in relation to applying knowledge of climate predictions to modify actions ahead of likely impacts. However, a considerable body of effort in various parts of the world is now being focused on this issue of applying climate predictions to improve agricultural systems.

In this paper, we outline the basis for climate prediction, with emphasis on the El Niño-Southern Oscillation phenomenon, and catalogue experiences at field, national and global scales in applying climate predictions to agriculture. These diverse experiences are synthesised to derive general lessons about approaches to applying climate prediction in agriculture. The case studies have been selected to represent a diversity of agricultural systems and scales of operation. They also represent the on-going activities of some of the key research and development groups in this field around the world. The case studies include applications at field/farm scale to dryland cropping systems in Australia, Zimbabwe, and Argentina. This spectrum covers resource-rich and resource-poor farming with motivations ranging from profit to food security. At national and global scale we consider possible applications of climate prediction in commodity forecasting (wheat in Australia) and examine implications on global wheat trade and price associated with global consequences of climate prediction.

In cataloguing these experiences we note some general lessons. Foremost is the value of an interdisciplinary systems approach in connecting disciplinary knowledge in a manner most suited to decision-makers. This approach often includes scenario analysis based on simulation with credible models as a key aspect of the learning process. Interaction among researchers, analysts and decision-makers is vital in the development of effective applications — all of the players learn. Issues associated with balance between information demand and supply as well as appreciation of awareness limitations of decision-makers, analysts, and scientists are highlighted. It is argued that understanding and communicating decision risks is one of the keys to successful applications of climate prediction.

We consider that advances of the future will be made by better connecting agricultural scientists and practitioners with the science of climate prediction. Professions involved in decision making must take a proactive role in the development of climate forecasts if the design and use of climate predictions are to reach their full potential.     

深度学习在农业领域的研究与应用综述

深度学习是目前人工智能领域最重要的技术之一,在学术领域和工程应用掀起了研究高潮。鉴于深度学习在农业领域的应用潜力和重要性,通过对深度学习有关文献的研究,首先详细描述了深度学习的概念,结合典型深度神经网络的结构特征,对其特点、优缺点、变体以及应用现状进行了综述;然后重点介绍了深度学习在语音识别、农业场景目标检测、农业图像语义分割领域的发展和应用;最后分析了深度学习在农业领域目前存在的问题和未来重点的研究方向。     

Adaptive implementation of information technology for real-time, basin-scale salinity management in the San Joaquin Basin, USA and Hunter River Basin, Australia

Pollutant trading schemes are market-based strategies that can provide cost-effective and flexible environmental compliance in large river basins. The aim of this paper is to contrast two innovative adaptive strategies for salinity management have been developed in the Hunter River Basin, New South Wales, Australia and in the San Joaquin River Basin, California, USA, respectively. In both instances web-based stakeholder information dissemination has been a key to achieving a high level of stakeholder involvement and the formulation of effective decision support tools for salinity management. A common element to implementation of salinity management strategies in both the Hunter River and San Joaquin River basins has been the concept of river assimilative capacity as a guide for controlling export salt loading and the establishment of a framework for trading of the right to discharge salt load to the Hunter River and San Joaquin River respectively. Both rivers provide basin drainage and the means of exporting salt load to the ocean. The paper compares the opportunities and constraints governing salinity management in the two basins as well as the use of monitoring, modeling and information technology to achieve environmental compliance and sustain irrigated agriculture in an equitable, socially and politically acceptable manner. The paper concludes by placing into broader context some of the issues raised by the comparison of the two approaches to basin salinity management.     

Introducing greenhouse gas mitigation as a development objective in rice-based agriculture: II. Cost–benefit assessment for different technologies,regions and scales

New tools for land use analysis including detailed cost–benefit assessments are needed to integrate resource management for enhancing farmers’ income and mitigating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The paper comprises an assessment of GHG emissions and economic returns under different mitigation technologies in three rice growing regions in Asia, i.e., Ilocos Norte province (Philippines), Zhejiang province (China) and Haryana state (India). Site-specific data on soil, climate and socio-economics were integrated in the previously developed spreadsheet model TechnoGAS (Technical Coefficient Generator for Mitigation Technologies of Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Agricultural Sectors). Three baseline technologies that differed in terms of inorganic/organic N supply have been compared to different mitigation technologies in form of Marginal Abatement Cost Curves (MACCs). For the baseline technology of inorganic N (urea) fertilization, amendment with phosphogypsum and nitrification inhibitors are the most promising mitigation options resulting in shadow prices of less than US$10 per ton of carbon dioxide equivalent (CE). Assuming a mix of urea and farm yard manure for the baseline, we have tested several options including different irrigation patterns and husk used as fossil fuel. Mid-season drainage had a better cost–benefit ratio (ca. US$20 per t CE) than alternate flooding, but was less profitable than husk utilization (ca. US$4 per t CE). Assuming high organic inputs, biogas technology is, in most cases, the preferable option (ca. US$10 per t CE). Finally, we compiled regional abatement cost curves for selected administrative units using the outcome from regional optimization models. Implementing the three most promising technologies required US$6000 for Dingras municipality, Ilocos Norte, in the Philippines (ca. 10³ ha of rice land potentially providing emission savings of ca. 3000 t CE), US$50,000 for Pujiang county in China (ca. 10⁴ ha providing ca. 27,000 t CE), and US$1.2 million for Karnal district in India (ca. 10⁵ ha providing ca. 220,000 t CE).     

FARMFLOW—A dynamic model for phosphorus mass flow,simulating conventional and organic management of a Swedish dairy farm

A farm systems mass-balance calculation model, FARMFLOW, was applied to a case study comparing organic and conventional management of a Swedish experimental dairy farm, Öjebyn. Parameterisation of the model is implemented using detailed field data from the Öjebyn farm where the two management systems have been run parallel for more than 11 years. Simulations were made to compare the stocks, flows and resulting balances of phosphorus (P) in the two systems during six crop rotations (36 years). In addition, a maximum animal density scenario was tested, in order to analyse the effects of increased production intensity. Results show that FARMFLOW can be a useful tool for analysing the impact of management on internal farm P dynamics, as well as imports and exports. The organic management results in a higher proportion of internal P flows whereas the conventional system relies more on imports of P in feed and mineral fertilisers. In both management systems, the crop rotation cause large temporal and spatial variation in the application of manure P to the soil system. The resulting field specific soil P accumulation can indicate which fields to target with changed fertilisation management. In the maximum animal density scenario, both management systems led to an application rate of manure P in excess of crop demands.     

磁力排种元件磁场分析与结构优选

提出了3种带导磁罩的磁力排种元件,并利用磁场有限元分析软件对有、无导磁罩2种磁力排种元件空间磁场特性进行了分析,得出了排种元件磁吸端面以及气隙空间磁感应强度分布规律。分析表明,有导磁罩排种元件漏磁少、磁能利用率高、磁吸端面附近的磁感应强度强,在相同安匝数下其磁吸端面磁感应强度比无导磁罩排种元件高30.41%,说明有导磁罩排种元件的吸种性能优于无导磁罩排种元件。通过对锥形、截锥形和阶梯形3种磁吸端部结构有导磁罩排种元件轴向、横向磁感应强度分析比较,得出有导磁罩锥形结构排种元件为优选结构。通过磁吸端面磁感应强度、最小吸种电流以及排种性能测试,证明了结构优选结果的正确性。     

江水北调工程运行管理初步分析

简要介绍了江水北调工程的运行体制和机制及其特点，根据工程近十年的运行情况，分析了翻水费的结构和变动趋势，对泵站累计单方水翻水成本进行了初步测算，提出了提高远距离调水工程经济技术指标的途径和措施，为进一步研究分析大型跨流域调水工程的运行成本，建立动态水价模型作一些探索。     

Twenty-five years modeling irrigated and drained soils: State of the art

Half of the world food production originates from irrigated and drained soils. Advanced soil water flow simulation models have the potential to contribute to the solution of relatively complex problems in irrigation and drainage science and management, provided that field data are available to calibrate and run them. Besides providing a literature review, this paper emphasizes on calibration and mathematical optimization procedures using GIS and remote sensing techniques. Unfortunately, the required level of expertise of integrated GIS, remote sensing and models make the application of sophisticated tools highly dependent on modeling experts. This is one of the chief reasons that soil water flow models have a low operational focus, especially in less developed countries with irrigation systems where they are most needed. The gap between the supply of various advanced models and the application by the irrigation and drainage community needs to be closed. The likelihood of adoption by a broader model user community will increase if models become more user- and data-friendly (or -tolerant) and heterogeneity-aware. During the next 10 years, simulation model development and application should focus on agricultural water savings, understanding recycling of water in the basin context, increase crop water productivity, bring groundwater-overexploitation to a halt and control the build up of soil salinity.     

Management of water consumption in agriculture A model for the economic optimisation of water use: application to a sub-humid area

This paper present a set of solutions for new irrigation transformation in a sub-humid area such as Salvatierra (Alava, Spain). The research is based on the choice of crop rotation (cultivated species and its degree of participation) being able to economically optimise the use of available water for irrigation. Hence, we will be able in helping make decisions to plan, from origin, the transformation of a dry area into an irrigated area. To do this, a model of economic use of water has been used in an area with climatic features very similar to a large part of Europe, representing an interesting scenario compared to the places where the model had not been applied. Crops taking part in this rotation to optimise use of water are mainly vegetables, with high water needs, that coexist together with crops for dryland farming even in conditions of lack of water. Crops for dryland farming allow an interesting diversification of activity as well as an average resource assignment to the farms that make possible to cultivate many farms at a time, which obviously implies socio-economic benefits for the achievements in the zone.     

TechnoGIN,a tool for exploring and evaluating resource use efficiency of cropping systems in East and Southeast Asia

Agricultural research in East and Southeast Asia is increasingly challenged by the search for land-use options that best match multiple development objectives of rural societies (e.g., increased income, food security, and reduced environmental pollution). In order to support the identification of sustainable land-use options and to support decision making with respect to land use, a tool was developed for quantifying inputs and outputs of cropping systems at the field level. TechnoGIN, the tool described in this paper, integrates systems analytical and expert knowledge and different types of agronomic data enabling the assessment of inputs and outputs of a broad range of cropping systems and the evaluation of their resource use efficiencies. By using methods of spatial aggregation in combination with linear programming, results can also be used to explore trade-offs in resource-use efficiencies at higher levels such as the farm household, municipality and province. New features in TechnoGIN compared with similar tools include the annual rotation of up to three crops, the distinction between aerobic and anaerobic growing conditions of crops, and the procedure for estimating crop nutrient uptake. TechnoGIN is illustrated with results from the Tam Duong district in North Vietnam. The design of TechnoGIN enables easy access to its data, parameters and assumptions, and rapid generation and evaluation of input–output relationships of cropping systems in order to add new information and to improve data. TechnoGIN raises awareness about the assumptions incorporated and thus supports data collection and setting of the research agenda with respect to agro-ecological processes for which knowledge is incomplete, and is relevant for showing trade-offs between production, economic and environmental impacts of different land-use systems.     

A measure for the efficiency of water use and its determinants,a case study of small-scale irrigation schemes in North-West Province,South Africa

This paper analyses the efficiency with which water is used in small-scale irrigation schemes in North-West Province in South Africa and studies its determinants. In the study area, small-scale irrigation schemes play an important role in rural development, but the increasing pressure on water resources and the approaching introduction of water charges raise the concern for more efficient water use. With the data envelopment analysis (DEA) techniques used to compute farm-level technical efficiency measures and sub-vector efficiencies for water use, it was shown that under constant returns to scale (CRS) and variable returns to scale (VRS) specification, substantial technical inefficiencies, of 49% and 16%, respectively, exist among farmers. The sub-vector efficiencies for water proved to be even lower, indicating that if farmers became more efficient using the technology currently available, it would be possible to reallocate a fraction of the irrigation water to other water demands without threatening the role of small-scale irrigation. In a second step, Tobit regression techniques were used to examine the relationship between sub-vector efficiency for water and various farm or farmer characteristics. Farm size, landownership, fragmentation, the type of irrigation scheme, crop choice and the irrigation methods applied showed a significant impact on the sub-vector efficiency for water. Such information is valuable for extension services and policy makers since it can help to guide policies towards increased efficiency.     

撒施肥料一维畦灌地表水流与溶质运移模型构建与验证

模拟撒施肥料下的一维畦灌地表水流与溶质运移过程可为采用先进的畦灌液体施肥方式提供对比依据。该文基于湍流理论垂向流速线性与对数分布规律及不可压缩流体力学连续方程,构造沿畦长及任意垂向断面的非均布流速场和溶质浓度场,建立起撒施肥料下的一维畦灌地表水流与溶质运移模型,并利用典型畦灌施肥试验结果,检验该模型的模拟效果。结果表明,建立的模型不仅具有在撒施肥料状况下较好模拟地表水流运动和溶质浓度时间变化过程的能力,还具备较佳的水量和溶质质量守恒性,从而为评价撒施肥料下的畦灌施肥系统性能及与其它施肥方式下的畦灌施肥系统性能对比,提供了实用的数值模拟工具。     

立式轴流泵装置模型水力性能数值分析及预测

依托南水北调东线一期工程某低扬程泵站的设计参数,基于三维湍流流动雷诺时均N-S方程和RNG k-ε湍流模型,对由肘形进水流道、轴流泵和虹吸式出水流道组成的低扬程立式轴流泵装置模型内部流动进行数值模拟,分析了小流量工况(0.180 m³/s)、设计流量工况(0.299 m³/s)和大流量工况(0.360 m³/s)等3个典型工况时的泵装置流态和叶轮叶片表面的压力分布情况,对泵装置模型的能量性能进行预测,并与泵装置模型试验结果进行对比分析.结果表明:泵装置效率的数值计算结果与模型试验结果基本一致,最优工况点附近较为接近,在计算范围内最大差值不超过2%;设计流量工况时泵装置进、出水流道内的三维湍流流动状况,与进、出水流道分别进行数值计算时的状况基本一致;3种不同典型工况时泵装置进水流道内的流场分布状况相同,而出水流道内的流场差别很大.对不同工况时立式轴流泵装置模型内部三维湍流流动的研究结果,可为低扬程泵装置多工况水力设计优化研究提供一定的参考.     

荷电液滴蒸发破碎过程的数学模型

针对荷电液滴蒸发破碎过程伴随的电荷衰减、质量和热量的传递问题进行了理论分析,得出荷电液滴电荷衰减规律,建立荷电液滴蒸发破碎过程的数学模型.建立重力作用下作平抛运动液滴的轨道模型,得出了水平方向与竖直方向上的最大输运距离.研究表明,液滴所带电荷是随时间作指数规律衰减,液滴电导率越高,介电常数越小,电荷衰减越快;液滴完全蒸发所需时间基本上与液滴初始半径的平方成正比.荷电液滴在蒸发过程中,临界电量随液滴温度的增加而减小,当液滴带电量q大于等于临界电量qc时,蒸发过程中发生库仑分裂,并实现了对库仑分裂时刻的预测.     

高校图书馆数字资源长期保存的策略研究

在我国数字资源保存起步较晚的情况下,高校图书馆进行数字资源保存政策更加少。因此我国高校图书馆要结合当前实际情况,应制定一套合理、完善的长期保存政策来引导数字资源保存的实践。     

畜禽养殖环境测控系统研究

针对我国规模化畜禽养殖场的特点,研制开发出畜禽信息采集及控制系统.通过采集养殖场所的主要环境因素如温度、湿度及氨气含量等因子,并结合季节、畜禽品种及生理等特点,编制有效的环境信息采集及调控程序,达到自动完成环境控制的目的.测控技术先进、成本低,将其与养殖场的环境控制装备结合,可有效的提升养殖场管理及技术水平.     

700型拖拉机机罩头冲压工艺及拉深模分析

介绍了700型拖拉机机罩头的冲压件生产工艺分析过程,重点介绍了机罩头拉深模的工艺分析及模具结构设计的一些细节。     

盘吸式播种机吸盘流场性能分析与优化

盘吸式穴盘育苗播种机是设施农业生产机械化的重要装备,其吸盘结构与真空气室的流场特性对吸排种性能具有显著影响.在传统的吸盘设计与研究中均采用测点试验方法,其不能形象、准确描述内部流场规律.本文利用CFD方法对不同结构形式吸盘的流场进行分析,并对吸盘结构进行优化设计.数值模拟与样机试验表明,改进后的吸盘内部流场与压力场均匀,各吸嘴口处流速一致性明显提高,为吸盘的设计提供了新思路.     

车用电子水泵匹配设计及流体分析

与机械水泵相比,电子水泵在能耗和冷却性能方面表现更好,尤其是随着汽车热管理系统越来越精细化,智能可控的车用电子水泵将是汽车冷却水泵的未来发展趋势.为进一步降低车用电子水泵的能耗和缩短开发周期,以新能源纯电动汽车冷却系统为研究背景,通过需求匹配设计和流体分析,为车用电子水泵后续进一步优化提供依据和参考.     

低分子量骨胶原肽酶解制备工艺优化和特性分析

酶解工艺参数不仅会影响畜禽骨蛋白的酶解效率,而且会改变骨胶原肽产物的肽分子量分布、氨基酸组成和微结构性能,从而影响其高值高效化利用。以制备均一性低分子量骨胶原肽为目的,以牛骨粉为研究对象,以水解度为主要评价指标,考察碱性蛋白酶、中性蛋白酶、复合蛋白酶和风味蛋白酶对牛骨粉的酶解效果,探究双酶分步酶解工艺、脂肪酶预处理的单独与组合应用对酶解效果的提升作用,选定最优的低分子量骨胶原肽制备工艺;结合酶解过程中各项指标的变化、产物表征分析和Person相关系数法分析不同复合酶解工艺对产物特性的影响及作用机制。研究发现：经脂肪酶预处理-碱性蛋白酶-复合蛋白酶酶解工艺制备的骨胶原肽产物具有最佳的理化性质,优化的工艺参数为：底物质量浓度为0.09 g/mL、初始pH值7.5的牛骨粉溶液加入碱性脂肪酶（加酶量0.08%）在40℃下反应4 h,再加入碱性蛋白酶（加酶量0.36 U/g）在60℃下反应5 h后,最后加入复合蛋白酶（加酶量0.36 U/g）在55℃下反应5 h,此时,水解度可达16.12%,总游离氨基酸含量可达171.571 mg/g,其M_w、M_w/...