Coseismic and Postseismic Fault Slip for the 17 August 1999, M = 7.5, Izmit, Turkey Earthquake

We use Global Positioning System (GPS) observations and elastic half-space models to estimate the distribution of coseismic and postseismic slip along the Izmit earthquake rupture. Our results indicate that large coseismic slip (reaching 5.7 meters) is confined to the upper 10 kilometers of the crust, correlates with structurally distinct fault segments, and is relatively low near the hypocenter. Continued surface deformation during the first 75 days after the earthquake indicates an aseismic fault slip of as much as 0.43 meters on and below the coseismic rupture. These observations are consistent with a transition from unstable (episodic large earthquakes) to stable (fault creep) sliding at the base of the seismogenic zone.     

A flying start, then a slow slip

The human tragedy caused by the Sumatra-Andaman earthquake (moment magnitude 9.3) on 26 December 2004 and its companion Nias earthquake (moment magnitude 8.7) on 28 March 2005 is difficult to comprehend. These earthquakes, the largest in 40 years, have also left seismologists searching for the words and tools to describe the enormity of the geological processes involved. Four papers in this issue discuss aspects of a rupture process of surprising complexity, the first such event to test the sensitivity and range of many new technologies. A surprising feature of the earthquake is that after the initial rapid rupture, subsequent slip of the plate interface occurred with decreasing speed toward the north.     

Extended nucleation of the 1999 Mw 7.6 Izmit earthquake

Laboratory and theoretical studies suggest that earthquakes are preceded by a phase of developing slip instability in which the fault slips slowly before accelerating to dynamic rupture. We report here that one of the best-recorded large earthquakes to date, the 1999 moment magnitude (M(w)) 7.6 Izmit (Turkey) earthquake, was preceded by a seismic signal of long duration that originated from the hypocenter. The signal consisted of a succession of repetitive seismic bursts, accelerating with time, and increased low-frequency seismic noise. These observations show that the earthquake was preceded for 44 minutes by a phase of slow slip occurring at the base of the brittle crust. This slip accelerated slowly initially, and then rapidly accelerated in the 2 minutes preceding the earthquake.     

Mechanism diversity of the loma prieta aftershocks and the mechanics of mainshock-aftershock interaction

The diverse aftershock sequence of the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake is inconsistent with conventional models of mainshock-aftershock interaction because the aftershocks do not accommodate mainshock-induced stress changes. Instead, the sense of slip of the aftershocks is consistent with failure in response to a nearly uniaxial stress field in which the maximum principal stress acts almost normal to the mainshock fault plane. This orientation implies that (i) stress drop in the mainshock was nearly complete, (ii) mainshock-induced decreases of fault strength helped were important in controlling the occurrence of after-shocks, and (iii) mainshock rupture was limited to those sections of the fault with preexisting shear stress available to drive fault slip.     

Earthquake potential along the northern hayward fault, california

The Hayward fault slips in large earthquakes and by aseismic creep observed along its surface trace. Dislocation models of the surface deformation adjacent to the Hayward fault measured with the global positioning system and interferometric synthetic aperture radar favor creep at approximately 7 millimeters per year to the bottom of the seismogenic zone along a approximately 20-kilometer-long northern fault segment. Microearthquakes with the same waveform repeatedly occur at 4- to 10-kilometer depths and indicate deep creep at 5 to 7 millimeters per year. The difference between current creep rates and the long-term slip rate of approximately 10 millimeters per year can be reconciled in a mechanical model of a freely slipping northern Hayward fault adjacent to the locked 1868 earthquake rupture, which broke the southern 40 to 50 kilometers of the fault. The potential for a major independent earthquake of the northern Hayward fault might be less than previously thought.     

Near-field deformation from the El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake revealed by differential LIDAR

Large [moment magnitude (M(w)) ≥ 7] continental earthquakes often generate complex, multifault ruptures linked by enigmatic zones of distributed deformation. Here, we report the collection and results of a high-resolution (≥nine returns per square meter) airborne light detection and ranging (LIDAR) topographic survey of the 2010 M(w) 7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake that produced a 120-kilometer-long multifault rupture through northernmost Baja California, Mexico. This differential LIDAR survey completely captures an earthquake surface rupture in a sparsely vegetated region with pre-earthquake lower-resolution (5-meter-pixel) LIDAR data. The postevent survey reveals numerous surface ruptures, including previously undocumented blind faults within thick sediments of the Colorado River delta. Differential elevation changes show distributed, kilometer-scale bending strains as large as ~10(3) microstrains in response to slip along discontinuous faults cutting crystalline bedrock of the Sierra Cucapah.     

Slow earthquakes coincident with episodic tremors and slow slip events

We report on the very-low-frequency earthquakes occurring in the transition zone of the subducting plate interface along the Nankai subduction zone in southwest Japan. Seismic waves generated by very-low-frequency earthquakes with seismic moment magnitudes of 3.1 to 3.5 predominantly show a long period of about 20 seconds. The seismicity of very-low-frequency earthquakes accompanies and migrates with the activity of deep low-frequency tremors and slow slip events. The coincidence of these three phenomena improves the detection and characterization of slow earthquakes, which are thought to increase the stress on updip megathrust earthquake rupture zones.     

Extending earthquakes' reach through cascading

Earthquakes, whatever their size, can trigger other earthquakes. Mainshocks cause aftershocks to occur, which in turn activate their own local aftershock sequences, resulting in a cascade of triggering that extends the reach of the initial mainshock. A long-lasting difficulty is to determine which earthquakes are connected, either directly or indirectly. Here we show that this causal structure can be found probabilistically, with no a priori model nor parameterization. Large regional earthquakes are found to have a short direct influence in comparison to the overall aftershock sequence duration. Relative to these large mainshocks, small earthquakes collectively have a greater effect on triggering. Hence, cascade triggering is a key component in earthquake interactions.     

Rupture process of the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake

The 26 December 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake initiated slowly, with small slip and a slow rupture speed for the first 40 to 60 seconds. Then the rupture expanded at a speed of about 2.5 kilometers per second toward the north northwest, extending 1200 to 1300 kilometers along the Andaman trough. Peak displacements reached approximately 15 meters along a 600-kilometer segment of the plate boundary offshore of northwestern Sumatra and the southern Nicobar islands. Slip was less in the northern 400 to 500 kilometers of the aftershock zone, and at least some slip in that region may have occurred on a time scale beyond the seismic band.     

Seismicity remotely triggered by the magnitude 7.3 landers, california, earthquake

The magnitude 7.3 Landers earthquake of 28 June 1992 triggered a remarkably sudden and widespread increase in earthquake activity across much of the western United States. The triggered earthquakes, which occurred at distances up to 1250 kilometers (17 source dimensions) from the Landers mainshock, were confined to areas of persistent seismicity and strike-slip to normal faulting. Many of the triggered areas also are sites of geothermal and recent volcanic activity. Static stress changes calculated for elastic models of the earthquake appear to be too small to have caused the triggering. The most promising explanations involve nonlinear interactions between large dynamic strains accompanying seismic waves from the mainshock and crustal fluids (perhaps including crustal magma).     

Flash heating leads to low frictional strength of crustal rocks at earthquake slip rates

The sliding resistance of faults during earthquakes is a critical unknown in earthquake physics. The friction coefficient of rocks at slow slip rates in the laboratory ranges from 0.6 to 0.85, consistent with measurements of high stresses in Earth's crust. Here, we demonstrate that at fast, seismic slip rates, an extraordinary reduction in the friction coefficient of crustal silicate rocks results from intense "flash" heating of microscopic asperity contacts and the resulting degradation of their shear strengths. Values of the friction coefficient due to flash heating could explain the lack of an observed heat flow anomaly along some active faults such as the San Andreas Fault. Nearly pure velocity-weakening friction due to flash heating could explain how earthquake ruptures propagate as self-healing slip pulses.     

Frictional afterslip following the 2005 Nias-Simeulue earthquake, Sumatra

Continuously recording Global Positioning System stations near the 28 March 2005 rupture of the Sunda megathrust [moment magnitude (Mw) 8.7] show that the earthquake triggered aseismic frictional afterslip on the subduction megathrust, with a major fraction of this slip in the up-dip direction from the main rupture. Eleven months after the main shock, afterslip continues at rates several times the average interseismic rate, resulting in deformation equivalent to at least a M(w) 8.2 earthquake. In general, along-strike variations in frictional behavior appear to persist over multiple earthquake cycles. Aftershocks cluster along the boundary between the region of coseismic slip and the up-dip creeping zone. We observe that the cumulative number of aftershocks increases linearly with postseismic displacements; this finding suggests that the temporal evolution of aftershocks is governed by afterslip.     

A mechanical model for intraplate earthquakes: application to the new madrid seismic zone

We present a time-dependent model for the generation of repeated intraplate earthquakes that incorporates a weak lower crustal zone within an elastic lithosphere. Relaxation of this weak zone after tectonic perturbations transfers stress to the overlying crust, generating a sequence of earthquakes that continues until the zone fully relaxes. Simulations predict large (5 to 10 meters) slip events with recurrence intervals of 250 to 4000 years and cumulative offsets of about 100 meters, depending on material parameters and far-field stress magnitude. Most are consistent with earthquake magnitude, coseismic slip, recurrence intervals, cumulative offset, and surface deformation rates in the New Madrid Seismic Zone. Computed interseismic strain rates may not be detectable with available geodetic data, implying that low observed rates of strain accumulation cannot be used to rule out future damaging earthquakes.     

The 2010 Mw 8.8 Maule megathrust earthquake of Central Chile, monitored by GPS

Large earthquakes produce crustal deformation that can be quantified by geodetic measurements, allowing for the determination of the slip distribution on the fault. We used data from Global Positioning System (GPS) networks in Central Chile to infer the static deformation and the kinematics of the 2010 moment magnitude (M(w)) 8.8 Maule megathrust earthquake. From elastic modeling, we found a total rupture length of ~500 kilometers where slip (up to 15 meters) concentrated on two main asperities situated on both sides of the epicenter. We found that rupture reached shallow depths, probably extending up to the trench. Resolvable afterslip occurred in regions of low coseismic slip. The low-frequency hypocenter is relocated 40 kilometers southwest of initial estimates. Rupture propagated bilaterally at about 3.1 kilometers per second, with possible but not fully resolved velocity variations.     

The 1985 central chile earthquake: a repeat of previous great earthquakes in the region?

A great earthquake (surface-wave magnitude, 7.8) occurred along the coast of central Chile on 3 March 1985, causing heavy damage to coastal towns. Intense foreshock activity near the epicenter of the main shock occurred for 11 days before the earthquake. The aftershocks of the 1985 earthquake define a rupture area of 170 by 110 square kilometers. The earthquake was forecast on the basis of the nearly constant repeat time (83 +/- 9 years) of great earthquakes in this region. An analysis of previous earthquakes suggests that the rupture lengths of great shocks in the region vary by a factor of about 3. The nearly constant repeat time and variable rupture lengths cannot be reconciled with time- or slip-predictable models of earthquake recurrence. The great earthquakes in the region seem to involve a variable rupture mode and yet, for unknown reasons, remain periodic. Historical data suggest that the region south of the 1985 rupture zone should now be considered a gap of high seismic potential that may rupture in a great earthquake in the next few tens of years.     

Change in the probability for earthquakes in Southern California due to the Landers magnitude 7.3 earthquake

The Landers earthquake in June 1992 redistributed stress in southern California, shutting off the production of small earthquakes in some regions while increasing the seismicity in neighboring regions, up to the present. This earthquake also changed the ratio of small to large events in favor of more small earthquakes within about 100 kilometers of the epicenter. This implies that the probabilistic estimate for future earthquakes in southern California changed because of the Landers earthquake. The location of the strongest increase in probability for large earthquakes in southern California was the volume that subsequently produced the largest slip in the magnitude 7.1 Hector Mine earthquake of October 1999.     

Prospects for larger or more frequent earthquakes in the los angeles metropolitan region

Far too few moderate earthquakes have occurred within the Los Angeles, California, metropolitan region during the 200-year-long historic period to account for observed strain accumulation, indicating that the historic era represents either a lull between clusters of moderate earthquakes or part of a centuries-long interseismic period between much larger (moment magnitude, M(w), 7.2 to 7.6) events. Geologic slip rates and relations between moment magnitude, average coseismic slip, and rupture area show that either of these hypotheses is possible, but that the latter is the more plausible of the two. The average time between M(w) 7.2 to 7.6 earthquakes from a combination of six fault systems within the metropolitan area was estimated to be about 140 years.     

Seismic potential revealed by surface folding: 1983 coalinga, california, earthquake

The 2 May 1983 Coalinga, California, earthquake (magnitude 6.5) failed to rupture through surface deposits and, instead, elastically folded the top few kilometers of the crust. The subsurface rate of fault slip and the earthquake repeat time are estimated from seismic, geodetic, and geologic data. Three larger earthquakes (up to magnitude 7.5) during the past 20 years are also shown to have struck on reverse faults concealed beneath active folds.     

Repeating deep earthquakes: evidence for fault reactivation at great depth

We have identified three groups of deep earthquakes showing nearly identical waveforms in the Tonga slab. Relocation with a cross-correlation method shows that each cluster is composed of 10 to 30 earthquakes along a plane 10 to 30 kilometers in length. Some of the earthquakes are colocated, demonstrating repeated rupture of the same fault, and one pair of events shows identical rupture complexity, suggesting that the temporal and spatial rupture pattern was repeated. Recurrence intervals show an inverse time distribution, indicating a strong temporal control over fault reactivation. Runaway thermal shear instabilities may explain temporally clustered earthquakes with similar waveforms located along slip zones weakened by shear heating. Earthquake doublets that occur within a few hours are consistent with events recurring before the thermal energy of the initial rupture can diffuse away.     

Evidence for large earthquakes in metropolitan los angeles

The Sierra Madre fault, along the southern flank of the San Gabriel Mountains in the Los Angeles region, has failed in magnitude 7.2 to 7.6 events at least twice in the past 15,000 years. Restoration of slip on the fault indicated a minimum of about 4.0 meters of slip from the most recent earthquake and suggests a total cumulative slip of about 10.5 meters for the past two prehistoric earthquakes. Large surface displacements and strong ground motions resulting from greater than magnitude 7 earthquakes within the Los Angeles region are not yet considered in most seismic hazard and risk assessments.