开放条件下中国棉花产业安全研究

我国是世界棉花生产和消费大国.开放条件下,我国棉花的机械化生产水平不断提高,但国内棉花供应仍处于供不应求的状态,棉花贸易长期处于净进口局面.同时,棉花产业发展也深受贸易摩擦和某些国家政治打压的影响.基于我国棉花生产和贸易数据,运用进口市场集中度、进口依存度、出口依存度、自给率、国际竞争力等指标对我国棉花产业安全程度进行...     

中国热带农业“走出去”战略的思考——基于农产品进口依存度和进出口贸易分析

通过对热带农业“走出去”的形势,农产品进口依存度、天然橡胶进出口贸易、热带水果和咖啡进出口贸易情况的分析,提出了热带作物产业走向海外市场的步骤及其存在的问题,为热带农业走出去战略提出五点建议和对策：多边合作和多元投资、机制保障和宏观管理、打造特色热带农产品品牌、重视安全和强化企业的社会责任。     

我国食用油供给安全形势分析与对策建议

我国食用油供给形势严峻，主要表现在我国油料作物产量徘徊不前，且仅提供39%的国内植物油需求，对外依存度达61%；国际上由于生物柴油产业的快速发展，可供进口的油料产品日趋紧缺，且2006年以来植物油价格暴涨，预示国际上存在供给安全隐患。根据我国食用油供给安全形势，提出了国家采取扶持政策，发展油料生产，以提高我国食用油自给率；建立食用油储备制度的对策建议，以维护我国食用油供给安全。     

热带南亚热带作物生产贸易情况分析

热带、南亚热带作物是我国农业产值的重要组成部分,对满足国内生活需求和保障国家重要战略资源供给具有重要意义。本文通过分析全国、各省主要热带作物及2012年我国进口最大的2个热带作物的生产、贸易情况,为热作产业的发展提供参考。2011年,我国热作面积排前三的是广西、广东和云南;热作总产值排前三的是广东、广西和云南;热作进出口占农产品进出口的比重偏高,特别是进口比重偏高,容易导致我国物资安全,特别是战略物资安全。2012年,国内天然橡胶市场量增价跌;我国积极推动油棕生产技术研发,努力挖掘油料生产潜力。     

中国马铃薯贸易及竞争力分析

中国是马铃薯生产大国但不是马铃薯贸易大国,马铃薯及其制品的进出口贸易额不足全球的2%,中国马铃薯以出口初级产品和进口冷冻加工品为主,且进出口贸易伙伴分布相对集中。利用显示性比较优势指数和贸易竞争力指数分析中国马铃薯国际贸易竞争力。结果表明,21世纪以来,中国马铃薯的显示性比较优势指数总体处于持续上升的状态,国际竞争力在不断增强,由10年前的竞争优势较弱发展为中度竞争优势。利用贸易竞争力指数分析表明,2001年以前中国马铃薯处于国际竞争劣势,2002年起中国马铃薯已具有较强的竞争优势。     

世界棉花生产和消费概况

最近几年(1979～1983年)世界棉花的生产和消费,进出口贸易变化不大;在纺织原料价格增长不大的情况下,国家棉花市场贸易处于稳定,棉花消费量只稍微有些增长。许多国家棉花播种面积缩减,棉花价格提高,是由于世界棉花生产国家能源紧张和原料危机引起的。世界棉花生产水平,以1981/82年度为最高,皮棉总产量比1980/81年度增加13％,棉花播种面积只增加1％,主要是棉花单位面积产量提高。从表1资料可见,美国这几年皮棉产量由242.8万吨,增加到340.6万     

河南省食用植物油生产倍增计划概述

河南省是全国油料生产大省,在国家油料生产和油料安全中占有重要的地位。近年来,河南省油料生产出现种植面积不断萎缩和产量徘徊不前,以及油料加工产业相对滞后的局面。本文结合河南省油料生产的资源优势,总结了2008—2010年期间河南省食用植物油生产倍增计划的实施范围和预期目标,概括了食用植物油生产倍增计划种植类和加工类两大项目的落实进展情况,以及当前所取得的阶段性成果。食用植物油生产倍增计划有力地推动了河南省花生、芝麻、油菜等优势油料作物生产和油料加工产业的发展,有利于河南省将油料生产的资源优势转化为经济优势,保障河南以及国家油料生产稳定发展和食用植物油战略安全,     

中国花生产业的发展和出口对策

对入世后我国花生产业有关问题进行了分析。通过国内外市场价格、产量、出口量等数据比较，提出发展花生生产对满足国内油料供应，减少油料进口，防范转基因产品风险，增加农民收入，解决农村劳动力剩余和促进西部开发等问题的重大意义，指出花生是入世后我国参与国际竞争的重要产业。从花生生产、品种、食品安全、加工和贸易等分析了制约花生生产发展的主要问题，并提出解决对策和建议。     

中国大米安全风险分析

在分析我国大米处于适度进口的基础上,指出了我国大米安全的若干风险,即国内大米消费人口有增无减,国内大米生产增长空间不大,水资源、土壤环境等影响水稻生产的问题仍然严重,"镉大米"成为大米质量安全的痛点,粮源、贸易与禁运风险存在过或可能再度发生,大米进口毕竟有了量的突破,大米进口集中在个别国家可能导致真需粮时无粮,低价大米长期流入国内不利于保护稻农利益,大米实际进口量大于统计进口量可能误导决策。     

近十年世界菠萝的生产贸易现状

世界菠萝的生产与出口贸易发展迅速,呈现不断增长的趋势。分析了近十年来世界菠萝产业的收获面积、单产和产量等生产概况,以及世界各国菠萝及其加工产品进出口贸易状况。     

Estimation of the international virtual water flow of grain crop products in Korea

The Korean 2008 self-sufficiency rate for grain was only 26.2%. Because of this, the quantity virtual water (VW) for crop product imports is much greater than that of other countries. International VW trade is especially important to Korea due to its dependency on foreign imports to maintain food security and to establish an agricultural water resource policy. Using international crop products trade statistics during 2003?C2007, this study analyzed the virtual water content (VWC) and international virtual water flow (VWF) of major crops. The national water savings and global water savings were also estimated. Major grain products, including 28 products made from 13 crops, were selected for the analysis, based on the net import and export of products totaling more than 10,000 tons. VWCs were computed for the selected major crop products using the VWC of the primary crop of Korea. International VWFs were estimated using the VWC of each crop products. The amount of imported VW was 16,804 and 226?M?m³ was exported, so that the net imported VW was 16,578?M?m³. VW import is concentrated in wheat, rice, maize (corn), and soybean crops. A small number of countries, including the USA, China, Brazil, etc., account for over 96% of the imported VW, indicating Korea??s heavy dependence on these countries. The average national water savings for Korea and the average global water savings according to crop were estimated using VW flow from international crop products trade during 2003?C2007. The estimate of national water savings was 23,870.3?M?m³. Three major crops, namely wheat, maize and soybean, account for 95.3% of this total VW saving. Global water savings from the VW trade amounted to 7,253.0?M?m³. Korea depends heavily on VW imports concentrated in specific crops and which are primarily imported from a particular set of countries. This indicates that Korea is vulnerable to disruptions in the international grain harvest such as those caused by natural disasters such as floods and drought. Any such disruption could easily become a critical issue for governmental planners who establish food and water supply policies for Korea.     

Effect of a natural high fibre diet on blood lipids and intestinal transit time in man

In two experiments with young healthy volunteers the effects of a high in take of dietary fibre on blood lipids and intestinal transit time were investigated. In the first experiment the effects were studied of a high-fibre diet, in which half of the dietary fibre was provided by vegetables and fruits and the rest came from bread and other cereal products. In the second trial the effects of dietary fibre derived from vegetables and fruits were compared with those of isolated citrus pectin and wheat bran. It is concluded that—at least in short-term controlled experiments—fibre-rich food-stuffs have only a small (vegetables and fruits) or no (bran) favourable effect on the level of serum cholesterol. However, in uncontrolled circumstances, a ‘natural’ high fibre diet may through its low fat and cholesterol content indirectly reduce the concentration of serum cholesterol. A high-fibre diet with vegetables and fruits as well as a diet with bran shorten the intestinal transit time and enhance faeces production.     

The Economics of Horticultural Biotechnology

Abstract

Technological change has driven economic progress in agriculture and will continue to play a crucial role in die 21st century. The latest wave of technological change in agriculture is based on die ability to specifically modify crop genetics dirough recombinant DNA techniques. Biotech crop varieties have been adopted on a wide scale in some agronomic crops, but horticultural crops face hurdles for commercialization. Market barriers are blocking die production of biotech horticultural crops diat have already been developed. High costs for research, development and regulatory approval combined with the small acreages planted and the diversity of varieties limit die potential for profitable applications of biotechnology for many fruits and vegetables, tree fruits and nuts, and nursery and landscape crops. Like most technological changes in agriculture, die introduction of modern biotechnology has met with spirited political opposition from some quarters. Such opposition could discourage adoption of biotech products that are wanted by some consumers, can be profitable for growers and could reduce the environmental impacts of crop production.     

广东省主要农产品消费需求现状、趋势与对策

近年来,广东省主要农产品消费需求呈现新特征,主要农产品消费量走势各异,水稻与蔬菜的消费量平稳波动,食用油、肉类、水果和水产品消费总量均呈现不同程度的增长趋势。从消费结构角度看,城乡农产品消费结构存在较大差异,比如稻米、蔬菜城镇人均消费趋稳,农村居民消费开始下降。消费结构的转变导致了广东省主要农产品进出口情况转变,目前广东主要农产品进出口呈逆差状态,大部分小麦等粮食需从外省调入。采用GM(1,1)模型对广东主要农产品消费做出需求预测,发现未来10年的稻谷、蔬菜、食油、肉类、水果和水产品的消费需求均呈现平缓增加的趋势,并根据上述预测结果做出相应的政策建议。     

Evaluating decision rules for dryland rotation crop selection

No-till dryland winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.)-fallow systems in the central Great Plains have more water available for crop production than the traditional conventionally tilled winter wheat-fallow systems because of greater precipitation storage efficiency. That additional water is used most efficiently when a crop is present to transpire the water, and crop yields respond positively to increases in available soil water. The objective of this study was to evaluate yield, water use efficiency (WUE), precipitation use efficiency (PUE), and net returns of cropping systems where crop choice was based on established crop responses to water use while incorporating a grass/broadleaf rotation. Available soil water at planting was measured at several decision points each year and combined with three levels of expected growing season precipitation (70, 100, 130% of average) to provide input data for water use/yield production functions for seven grain crops and three forage crops. The predicted yields from those production functions were compared against established yield thresholds for each crop, and crops were retained for further consideration if the threshold yield was exceeded. Crop choice was then narrowed by following a rule which rotated summer crops (crops planted in the spring with most of their growth occurring during summer months) with winter crops (crops planted in the fall with most of their growth occurring during the next spring) and also rotating grasses with broadleaf crops. Yields, WUE, PUE, value-basis precipitation use efficiency ($PUE), gross receipts, and net returns from the four opportunity cropping (OC) selection schemes were compared with the same quantities from four set rotations [wheat-fallow (conventional till), (WF (CT)); wheat-fallow (no-till), (WF (NT)); wheat–corn (Zea mays L.)-fallow (no-till), (WCF); wheat–millet (Panicum miliaceum L.) (no-till), (WM)]. Water use efficiency was greater for three of the OC selection schemes than for any of the four set rotations. Precipitation was used more efficiently using two of the OC selection schemes than using any of the four set rotations. Of the four OC cropping decision methods, net returns were greatest for the method that assumed average growing season precipitation and allowed selection from all possible crop choices. The net returns from this system were not different from net returns from WF (CT) and WF (NT). Cropping frequency can be effectively increased in dryland cropping systems by use of crop selection rules based on water use/yield production functions, measured available soil water, and expected precipitation.     

6个引进油棕品种农艺性状评价

油棕（Elaeis guineensis Jacq.）是世界上产油效率最高的热带木本油料作物之一,享有“世界油王”之称。缺少自主选育的优良品种是限制我国油棕产业发展的主要因素之一,为选育适应我国栽培的油棕品种并对优良育种材料提供参考,对6个引自哥斯达黎加的油棕品种的植株生长、果穗、果实、产油量等性状进行观测与综合分析。结果表明：种植4年后,6个品种植株的自然高度为3.45~4.78 m,冠幅为5.28~6.11 m,茎高为81.50~105.00 cm,叶片总数为32.50~41.50片/株,叶片长度为332.25~391.75 cm,新增叶数为18.00~22.50片/（株·年）,其中2号和5号品种的植株相对较矮小;6个品种均属于中小果且为薄壳类型,其中1号品种的幼果为绿色,且成熟果穗中有30%~75%的果实没有核果（无籽）,3号品种的幼果有绿色和黑色,其他品种的幼果均为黑色;6个品种的果穗数为8.48~13.31串/（株·年）,果肉/果实比重为73.65%~83.50%,果实/果穗比重为53.45%~59.21%、果肉出油率为47.92%~54.10%、果穗出油率为20.83%~24.93%,具有高产的潜力。主成分分析结果表明,6个品种间在第一主成分无明显分离,层次聚类和热图可视化了6个品种植株农艺性状指标的聚类情况。6个品种综合相关性分析表明,单株产油量与果穗性状、果实性状和果穗出油率呈极显著正相关,这些指标可作为产油量鉴定指标,为未来油棕高产选育提供基础。     

强化豆科作物在北方现代农业结构中的作用

针对我国日趋严峻的粮油安全形势,近年来《中央一号文件》对农业种植结构进行了全面的、科学的调整：“生产上重点是保口粮,油料重点发展油菜和花生;东北地区扩种大豆杂粮薯类和饲草作物,构建合理轮作制度;黄淮海地区重点是扩种花生、大豆和饲草作物”。以豆科作物为主体的北方现代农业种植制度对保障粮油安全生产、饲草的供应以及农民增收具有重大意义。首先,从生产布局看,北方区域（东北、西北及黄淮海）是油料作物大豆、花生、杂豆以及饲草作物苜蓿主要产区。其中,大豆种植面积和产量分别约占全国68%和66%、花生分别占全国的63%和70%。其次,从豆科作物的生态效益来看,可实现用地与养地相结合、充分利用生态位优势、提高资源利用率。目前,北方豆科作物种植模式主要有：单作、间套作（玉米‖大豆、花生,玉米‖蚕豆、玉米‖豌豆等）、 轮作（大豆-冬小麦,夏花生-冬小麦,绿豆-冬小麦等）等生态友好型耕作制度。其中,玉米‖大豆、花生宽幅间作是农业部在黄淮海区域主要推广模式,具有经济、社会、生态效益,能有效缓解“粮油争地、人畜争粮”矛盾,大幅提高 粮油综合生产能力。通过加大国家农业政策调控,培育和推广大豆和花生耐阴、抗旱、高产及玉米矮秆、抗旱、高产 新品种,提高农业全程机械化水平和科技服务效率等措施,进一步提高农民生产积极性,强化豆科作物在北方现代农业结构中的比重和作用。     

我国油料产业形势分析与发展对策建议

在当前我国食用植物油对外依存度居高不下的严峻形势下,本文通过对世界及我国油料产需及贸易形 势进行分析,明确了当前我国油料产业发展存在的主要问题,针对存在的问题从政策、技术等方面提出了相应的对策建议。