How do resources influence control measures during a simulated outbreak of foot and mouth disease in Australia?

An outbreak of foot and mouth disease (FMD) could seriously impact Australia's livestock sector and economy. As an FMD-free country, an outbreak would trigger a major disease control and eradication program that would include the culling of infected and at risk animals (‘stamping out’), movement restrictions and zoo-sanitary measures. Additional control measures may also include pre-emptive culling or vaccination. However, it is unclear what disease strategy would be most effective under Australian conditions and different resource levels. Using a stochastic simulation model that describes FMD transmission between farms in a livestock dense region of Australia, our results suggest that using current estimates of human resource capacity for surveillance, infected premises operations and vaccination, outbreaks were effectively controlled under a stamping out strategy. However, under more constrained resource allocations, ring vaccination was more likely to achieve eradication faster than stamping out or pre-emptive culling strategies.     

Abattoir surveillance: the U.S. experience

Abattoir, or slaughter, surveillance has been an important component of bovine tuberculosis control and eradication programs in the U.S., and has adapted to changes in the livestock market from farm to table, and the threat of bovine tuberculosis from a wildlife reservoir. The purpose of this overview was to describe the current goals of U.S. bovine tuberculosis slaughter surveillance, describe the elements of slaughter surveillance in the U.S., describe enhancements to the slaughter surveillance system, and discuss future challenges for the U.S. bovine tuberculosis surveillance program. Government regulations and the scientific literature were examined to provide information for this paper. The control and eradication of bovine tuberculosis in livestock falls to the United States Department of Agriculture and two agencies within the Department: the Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) and the Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS). FSIS conducts routine slaughter surveillance for disease or conditions that render carcasses unsuitable for human consumption, while APHIS is involved in antemortem bovine tuberculosis testing, and necropsy and investigation of bovine tuberculosis cases identified through slaughter surveillance or antemortem testing. Results from the previous 5 years of surveillance are presented. Enhancements have been added to the current surveillance system to improve its performance. An incentive program has been used to increase the numbers of tissues submitted for laboratory examination, the state of Michigan is implementing electronic animal identification under a pilot program, and expansions to the current system are being developed to accommodate new livestock industries. The success of these programs and challenges for the future are discussed.     

Ovine Johne's disease in Australia--the first 20 years

OBJECTIVE: To review the history of ovine Johne's disease in Australia. PROCEDURE: Relevant publications and reports were identified and reviewed to document the spread of ovine Johne's disease (OJD) from 1980 until the end of 2000, as well as the response of industry and government to the spread of this disease. RESULTS: OJD was first diagnosed in the central tablelands region of New South Wales in 1980. Since then it has spread, either from the initial focus or through separate introductions so that by December 2000 a total of 823 infected flocks had been identified. Cases have been confirmed in New South Wales, Victoria, the Australian Capital Territory, on Flinders Island in Tasmania, on Kangaroo Island in South Australia and in Western Australia. In early 1999, agreement was reached to fund and implement a 6-year, $40 million National OJD Control and Evaluation Program (NOJDP). This program is jointly funded by the sheep industries (national and state), and Commonwealth and State governments, and is managed by Animal Health Australia. CONCLUSION: A national program is now in place to support the control of OJD and research to determine the feasibility and cost-effectiveness of eradication. The development of new diagnostic techniques, such as abattoir surveillance and pooled faecal culture, provide opportunities to refine surveillance strategies and to define better the distribution and prevalence of this disease, as required by the national program. Effective control measures, combined with quality surveillance data, will enable informed decision making for the future national management of OJD.     

Agricultural policy and social returns to eradication programs: the case of Aujeszky''s disease in Sweden

Economic-welfare analysis of animal disease prevention programs frequently ignore the constraints of the agricultural policy environment. Prevention programs affect producers, consumers and the government. The policy environment to a large extent determines the magnitude as well as the distribution of benefits of the program among these groups. The Swedish hog industry has been exposed to three major policy changes during the 1990–1995 period. These scenarios involve various degrees of government intervention in the agricultural sector including internal market deregulation and EU-membership. Aujeszky's disease is a virus disease with swine as the natural infection reservoir. Piglets are the most fragile and an outbreak of the disease results in symptoms such as shaking, cramps and convulsions with an increase in the mortality rate. Slaughter hogs suffer from coughing, fever and reduce their feed consumption. During the last 20–25 years the incidence of Aujeszky's disease (AD) has been increasing in Sweden. In 1989 an eradication program was undertaken. A model is developed to analyze social benefits of an eradication program given variations in agricultural policy. The model refers to the specifics of the AD-program implemented in Sweden. The expected benefits of the program are evaluated using a welfare-economic analysis applying cost-benefit analysis. Total benefits of the program are evaluated across herd and size categories and different regions. Data concerning the frequency of the virus among various categories of herds prior to enacting the program were used (Wahlström et al., 1990). In addition, data from an agricultural insurance company were used to estimate the conditional probability of an outbreak given that the herd is infected. Biological and technical parameter values were collected from a variety of sources. The results of the analysis indicate that the program is economically viable given a social rate of discount in the range of 3–5% without considering non-monetary aspects such as animal ethics. A scenario where the Swedish agricultural sector is deregulated provides the maximum benefits of the program. Consumers obtain about 50% of the benefits excluding program costs. The deregulation scenario would correspond closely to a case where a reformed Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) is applied across member countries. In the current case where Sweden is a member of the EU, the benefits are reduced mainly due to lower prices of inputs and pork.     

BLUETONGUE CERTIFICATION—AUSTRALIAN POLICY

Australian quarantine policies with respect to BT are based on regarding this disease as one of high risk and major potential economic importance to our ruminant population. There are deficiencies in our knowledge of world distribution, epidemiology and pathogenesis. There may be unknown vectors and unsuspected animal reservoir hosts. The international distribution of BT could be extending through the movements of insects or cattle. If introduced into Australia, the cattle and sheep populations would probably be at continuous risk as eradication would be difficult or impossible. Costs to the sheep industry at least could be high and productivity gravely affected. To reduce the probability of introduction, imports of ruminants and semen have, for the last 16 years, been restricted to a very small number of countries presumed free from BT. Future policies will almost certainly be based on these same considerations taking into account scientific advances in diagnosis and virus detection. The establishment of an off-shore high security quarantine station will facilitate imports of ruminants even from known BT-infected countries.     

Evaluation of post-farm-gate passive surveillance in swine for the detection of foot and mouth disease in Australia

Pigs are considered high risk for the introduction and spread of foot and mouth disease (FMD) in Australia. One of the most likely pathways of introduction of FMD into Australia would be through the illegal importation of FMD-contaminated meat, which is then fed to feral or domestic pigs. Locations where animals from different origins are commingled, such as livestock markets and abattoirs, pose a risk for disease spread. Early detection of exotic diseases at these locations is crucial in limiting the spread of an outbreak. The aims of this study were to evaluate the likelihood of exotic disease detection with current passive disease surveillance activities for pigs at saleyards and abattoirs in eastern Australia, and make recommendations for improving surveillance. Sensitivity (Se) of the current post-farm-gate passive surveillance for detection of exotic diseases was estimated using the scenario tree modelling methodology (Martin et al., 2007a). Four surveillance system components were identified: (i) domestic saleyard, (ii) export saleyard, (iii) domestic abattoir, and (iv) export abattoir. Pig farms were classified according to herd size (Small vs. Large) and subsequently into two risk categories depending on the probability of swill feeding (Swill feeding vs. Not swill feeding). A scenario tree representing the pathways by which infected animals could be detected was developed and the Se of detection in each surveillance system component was estimated. Industry statistics, information on previous exotic disease outbreaks, and interviews with pig producers were used to estimate herd category proportions and the relative risk of swill feeding. Quantitative estimates for probabilities of detection were sourced from State legislation and policies, stakeholder consultation and observational studies at saleyards and abattoirs. Results of a FMD case study showed a Se of detection at a representative location for each surveillance system component during a 2-week period of 0.19 at domestic saleyards, 0.40 at export saleyards, 0.32 at domestic abattoirs and, 0.53 at export abattoirs. This output assumed the country was infected with herd and unit design prevalences of 1% and 30%, respectively. Improving disease awareness of saleyard and abattoir stockmen, increasing the presence of inspectors at these venues and identifying those herds posing a higher risk for FMD introduction, could improve the capacity of the country for early detection of emerging animal diseases.     

Bovine tuberculosis in Europe from the perspective of an officially tuberculosis free country: trade, surveillance and diagnostics

Switzerland has been officially free of bovine tuberculosis (OTF) since 1960. Since 1980 the control of bovine tuberculosis (bTB) has been reduced to passive abattoir surveillance. Isolated cases of bTB, partly due to reactivation of human Mycobacterium bovis infections with subsequent transmission to cattle, have been noticed in the last years. In Europe, the overall prevalence of bTB is slightly increasing. Both OTF and non-OTF countries report increases in the proportion of bTB positive cattle herds. Current bTB eradication and control programs in Europe are facing a range of challenges. Whole herd depopulation is becoming a less attractive option for economic reasons and due to animal welfare concerns. Live animal trade is increasing both at national and international levels. Regarding these tendencies and taking into account the chronicity of bTB infection, pre-movement testing is becoming increasingly important as a central tool for eradication and for protection against re-introduction of bTB. Pre-movement testing, however specifically focuses on the infection status in individuals, requiring a high level of diagnostic accuracy to correctly diagnose infected animals. Current screening tests for bTB, however, have been designed to meet demands as herd tests. This illustrates that the modification of existing and/or the development of new diagnostics for bTB might be needed. The tuberculin skin test (TST), the primary screening test for bTB may in certain situations have low sensitivity. The interferon gamma (IFN-γ) assay is accepted to be more sensitive compared to TST. Reduced specificity, however, especially in areas of low bTB prevalence raises concerns. New antigen combinations including Rv3615c, OmpATb and others have been shown to complement ESAT-6 and CFP-10 in the whole blood IFN-γ assay and resulted in improved sensitivity (compared to ESAT-6 and CFP-10) and specificity (compared to tuberculins). Lesion detection after slaughter represents a cost-effective procedure for passive surveillance of bTB, especially in areas of low prevalence or in regions free of bTB; however, its sensitivity is very low. This illustrates that trade is linked with a certain risk to re-introduce bTB in OTF regions or countries and that there may be delays in detecting a re-introduction of bTB. In conclusion, regarding the fact that some parameters linked with bTB programs are changing, the development of improved diagnostic tests with a high reliability for use as individual animal tests will be important for future eradication of bTB, in line with international commitment to high standard animal health programs.     

Evidence of the role of European wild boar as a reservoir of Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex

Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) is caused by Mycobacterium bovis and closely related mycobacteria of the Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex. They have an extensive host range and may cause zoonotic TB. A major obstacle to bTB eradication in livestock is the implication of wildlife in the natural cycle of the pathogen. The identification of wildlife reservoir hosts is crucial for the implementation of effective control measures. The European wild boar (Sus scrofa) is frequently considered a spillover or dead end host rather than a true reservoir, and scientific evidence is conflicting outside Mediterranean Spain. The aim of this review is to update current scientific evidence of the wild boar as a TB reservoir and to underline those aspects that need further research. Evidences supporting that wild boar is a TB reservoir host include: (i) presence of common M. tuberculosis complex genotypes in wild boar, domestic and wild animals and humans, (ii) high prevalence of M. bovis among wild boar in estates fenced for decades in complete absence of contact with domestic livestock, and other wild ungulates (iii) TB lesions are frequently seen in thoracic lymph nodes and lungs, suggesting that respiratory infection and excretion may occur, and (iv) extensive tuberculous lesions in more than one anatomical region occur in a high proportion of juvenile wild boar that probably represents the main source of mycobacterial excretion. Hence, epidemiological, pathological and microbiological evidence strongly suggests that, at least in Spanish Mediterranean ecosystems, wild boar are able to maintain TB infection in the wild and are most probably able to transmit the disease to other species, acting as a true wildlife reservoir. These results expand the list of wildlife species that act as natural reservoirs of TB in different parts of the world and suggest the need to control the infection in wild boar populations for the complete eradication of the disease in Spain.     

Anticipating the species jump: surveillance for emerging viral threats

Zoonotic disease surveillance is typically triggered after animal pathogens have already infected humans. Are there ways to identify high‐risk viruses before they emerge in humans? If so, then how and where can identifications be made and by what methods? These were the fundamental questions driving a workshop to examine the future of predictive surveillance for viruses that might jump from animals to infect humans. Virologists, ecologists and computational biologists from academia, federal government and non‐governmental organizations discussed opportunities as well as obstacles to the prediction of species jumps using genetic and ecological data from viruses and their hosts, vectors and reservoirs. This workshop marked an important first step towards envisioning both scientific and organizational frameworks for this future capability. Canine parvoviruses as well as seasonal H3N2 and pandemic H1N1 influenza viruses are discussed as exemplars that suggest what to look for in anticipating species jumps. To answer the question of where to look, prospects for discovering emerging viruses among wildlife, bats, rodents, arthropod vectors and occupationally exposed humans are discussed. Finally, opportunities and obstacles are identified and accompanied by suggestions for how to look for species jumps. Taken together, these findings constitute the beginnings of a conceptual framework for achieving a virus surveillance capability that could predict future species jumps.     

Eradication programme for bovine viral diarrhoea virus in Orkney 2001 to 2008

The strategies used and the results obtained in Orkney's bovine viral diarrhoea virus (BVDV) eradication programme over eight years (2001 to 2008) are presented and discussed. The venture was undertaken by local veterinary practices and the Orkney Livestock Association (OLA) with the financial support of the Orkney Islands Council. Participation is voluntary; the programme comprises screening of youngstock, a whole-herd test if required, elimination of persistently infected animals and strict biosecurity measures and/or vaccination. BVDV-free herds are certified, and certification is updated annually by retesting the youngstock. The programme aims to minimise economic losses, thereby increasing the competitiveness of the Orcadian cattle industry and to improve animal health and welfare by eliminating virus circulation. Information from databases of the Scottish Agricultural College, Biobest Laboratories and OLA show that despite a significant reduction in the overall prevalence of BVDV on Orkney during the initial stages of the eradication programme, there has been little progress made since 2006 and that some difficulties have been encountered, with herd BVDV breakdowns following initial eradication. These results highlight the need for continued motivation of farmers, strict application of biosecurity measures and/or systematic vaccination of all seronegative breeding animals.     

The Northern Ireland programme for the control and eradication of Mycobacterium bovis

Bovine tuberculosis is endemic in Northern Ireland and a comprehensive eradication scheme has been in operation since 1959. The current programme involves annual testing, extensive computerized tracing, short-interval testing of herds contiguous to outbreaks and compulsory slaughter of positive cattle. Despite initial reductions in disease prevalence, eradication has proved elusive and potential explanatory factors include high cattle density and potential for between-herd contact, the impact of exotic diseases on resource priorities, and significant levels of bovine tuberculosis in a wildlife reservoir, the European badger (Meles meles). Both the role of the infected bovine and that of the badger in spreading disease have to be addressed to ensure progress towards eradication. Current measures are described and future options for enhancing the programme are outlined.     

BHV-1 eradication program in Bavaria: a marker-independent strategy

In Bavaria a BHV-1 eradication program was initiated in 1986 and was changed to a compulsory program in 1998. The eradication success increased progressively from < 50% in 1986 to 87% of the farms in 2002. BHV 1-free farms are controlled by bulk milk serology twice a year along with blood serology in animals that are negative but from herds where positive field virus infected animals are present. All serological tests are performed with an indirect ELISA test, all positive results are confirmed by a gB ELISA. Currently about 100.000 virus infected cattle are in Bavarian herds, approximately 80% of these animals are in heavily infected herds (> 10 infected animals). These herds comprise about 5% of all Bavarian herds. The eradication of the virus in these heavily infected herds is the most diifficult, whereas the prevention of new infections appears controllable. In this review current problems in BHV1 eradication are named and possible improvements are discussed.     

Experimental infection of rabbits with bovine viral diarrhoea virus by a natural route of exposure

Bovine viral diarrhoea virus (BVDV) is an important pathogen of cattle that can naturally infect a wide range of even-toed ungulates. Non-bovine hosts may represent reservoirs for the virus that have the potential to hamper BVDV eradication programs usually focused on cattle. Rabbits are very abundant in countries such as the United Kingdom or Australia and are often living on or near livestock pastures. Earlier reports indicated that rabbits can propagate BVDV upon intravenous exposure and that natural infection of rabbits with BVDV may occur but experimental proof of infection of rabbits by a natural route is lacking. Therefore, New Zealand White rabbits were exposed to a Scottish BVDV field strain intravenously, oro-nasally and by contaminating their hay with virus. None of the animals showed any clinical signs. However, the lymphoid organs from animals sacrificed at day five after exposure showed histological changes typical of transient infection with pestivirus. Most organ samples and some buffy coat samples were virus positive at day five but saliva samples remained negative. Development of antibodies was observed in all intravenously challenged animals, in all of the nebulised group and in four of six animals exposed to contaminated hay. To our knowledge this is the first report of BVDV propagation in a species other than ruminants or pigs after exposure to the virus by a natural route. However, to assess the role of rabbits as a potential reservoir for BVDV it remains to be determined whether persistent infection caused by intra-uterine infection is possible and whether BVDV is circulating in wild rabbit populations.     

Tuberculosis in goats: assessment of current in vivo cell-mediated and antibody-based diagnostic assays

Tuberculosis in goats, mainly caused by Mycobacterium bovis and M. caprae, is a zoonotic disease with implications for public health, as well as having an economic impact due to decreased goat production, increased mortality rates and costs of diagnosis. There is an increasing need for surveillance of tuberculosis-infected goat herds, particularly in countries that are not officially free of bovine tuberculosis, and goats sharing farms with cattle should be subjected to the official tuberculin test. In Spain, some regions have programmes for the control of tuberculosis in goats, applying the same diagnostic assays that are used for cattle. The objective of tuberculosis eradication in livestock requires adaptation of existing control strategies to include goats. As such, it is necessary to determine whether current diagnostic assays for tuberculosis in cattle will work as efficiently in the goat. This review provides an overview of current in vivo tools for diagnosis of caprine tuberculosis, including estimates of the sensitivity and specificity of tests performed in this species. The number of tested animals and co-infection with Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis are also addressed, with the aim of demonstrating the limitations of current assays and the need for further research.     

Dominance hierarchies in cattle and red deer (Cervus elaphus): their possible relationship to the transmission of bovine tuberculosis

A behavioural study was conducted to assess the dominance structure of cattle and deer herds and to assess the possible relationship of dominance to the risk of becoming infected with bovine tuberculosis. Five groups of cattle containing newly identified intradermal tuberculin test reactors were evaluated to determine the dominance hierarchy, and then exposed to sedated possums to assess the response of reactors and non-reactors. Eighty-six percent of the tuberculin test-positive cattle were among the 20% most dominant animals in their herds. In four of the five herds, the dominant animals investigated the sedated possum most actively, and in three of these four the reactors were in the investigating group. Six deer were exposed to a naturally tuberculosis-infected possum population, and the four highest animals in the dominance hierarchy (which also showed strong investigative behaviour when exposed to simulated terminally ill tuberculous possums) all subsequently became infected with tuberculosis. The fifth animal in the hierarchy became test-positive for tuberculosis later than the first four, but was subsequently also shown to be culture-positive for M. bovis. The lowest animal in the hierarchy, which showed no active interest in simulated tuberculous possums, did not become infected. This study strongly suggests a central role for terminally ill tuberculous possums in the transmission of tuberculosis to cattle and farmed deer. Management techniques designed to reduce contact between these few possums and farmed livestock may be expected to reduce the incidence of tuberculosis.     

The role of wild animal populations in the epidemiology of tuberculosis in domestic animals: how to assess the risk

Tuberculosis is present in wild animal populations in North America, Europe, Africa and New Zealand. Some wild animal populations are a source of infection for domestic livestock and humans. An understanding of the potential of each wild animal population as a reservoir of infection for domestic animals is reached by determining the nature of the disease in each wild animal species, the routes of infection for domestic species and the risk of domestic animals encountering an infectious dose. The mere presence of infection in a wild animal population does not of itself provide evidence of a significant wildlife reservoir. Although at times counterintuitive, wildlife populations with high disease prevalence may not necessarily have a role in the epidemiology of disease in domestic livestock. The key concepts used in deciding whether an infected wild animal population is involved in the epidemiology of tuberculosis in domestic livestock is illustrated by reference to six well-researched cases: the feral pig (Suis scrofa) and feral Asian water buffalo (Bubalus bubalis) in Australia, white tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in Michigan, and the brushtail possum (Trichosurus vulpecula) and other species, such as the ferret (Mustela furo), in New Zealand. A detailed analysis of Mycobacterium bovis infection in the Eurasian badger (Meles meles) in Ireland and their role as a reservoir of infection for cattle is also presented.     

Control of BVDV-infection on common grassland--the key for successful BVDV-eradication in Lower Austria

A bovine viral diarrhea/mucosal disease (BVD/MD) control and eradication program was introduced in Lower Austria in 1996, according to the Swedish model. At present 9800 out of 17,000 herds are part of this program. An important risk factor for BVDV-transmission under local conditions is communal grazing. Approximately 3-4% of livestock share common pastures, in which susceptible pregnant cattle may be mixed with unrecognised persistently infected (PI) animals. Rules and regulations were defined to allow only herds free from BVDV-infection on to common grassland. At the moment, 5067 herds are certified free from BVDV. The percentage of BVDV-free herds in regions with intensive pasture utilisation is higher (57.3%) than in the other regions (43.0%) of Lower Austria. With a reliable system for identification of PI-animals and a high certainty of prevention of PI-animals on common grassland, the main transmission of BVDV infection can be stopped, even if the animals are derived from infected herds and transiently infected animals cannot be excluded.     

CONTROL OF BLUETONGUE IN AN EPIZOOTIC SITUATION: AUSTRALIAN PLANS

Epizootics of BT outside Africa have occurred in the Middle East, Indian subcontinent, Spain and Portugal, and the United States of America. The disease has only been eradicated from a major region once, this being Spain and Portugal in 1956-60 when it was achieved by quarantine, compulsory vaccination and slaughter of some infected animals. Because of the serious economic effect that BT would have on the Australian sheep industry the policy in this country is to attempt eradication, if at all feasible. The prospects of eradication will be greatly enhanced if the disease can be diagnosed quickly, when the outbreak is still localised. The laboratory diagnosis of BT involves inoculation of blood samples, collected from febrile animals on the suspect property, into groups of susceptible sheep in insect-proof quarters. The diagnosis would be confirmed at the reference laboratory in South Africa by serological and other identity tests. The diagnosis of an outbreak that originated in the northern cattle areas might be very difficult, because of the probable mild clinical nature of the disease in cattle. It is suggested that sentinel sheep flocks be maintained in these areas in strategic places near likely points of entry. Control measures, based on current knowledge of the epizootiology and pathogenesis of bluetongue; are discussed. The disease is transmitted by Culicoides that ingest infected blood from viraemic ruminants. Control is based on reducing the number of viraemic ruminants in the infected area, reducing the population density of Culicoides, and reducing the availability of susceptible ruminants. It is vital to prevent the movement of potentially infected ruminants to new localities. Contingent plans for the eradication of an epizootic of BT in Australia have been prepared. These call for the creation of two control zones. In the inner infected area, which extends for about five miles around known infected farms, there would be an intensive disinsection programme with aerial and ground spraying. Ruminants in the infected area would probably be slaughtered. The quarantine zone would extend for another 50 miles and in this area there would be prohibition of the movement of ruminants from farms. Regular clinical inspections and serological surveys would be carried out to detect secondary outbreaks. If control measures failed, it might be necessary to mount urgently a massive vaccination campaign to prevent disastrous losses to the Australian sheep industry. The difficulties in obtaining sufficient quantities of monovalent vaccine from overseas at short notice are discussed. Plans have been made to produce BT vaccine in Australia, in a specially designed high security laboratory, should the need arise.     

Bovine viral diarrhea (BVD) eradication in Switzerland--experiences of the first two years

A national eradication programme was designed with the aim of achieving total freedom from bovine viral diarrhea virus (BVDV) infection in the Swiss cattle population. The eradication programme consisted of testing every Swiss bovine for antigen, culling virus-positive animals and applying movement restrictions. Starting in 2008, the campaign achieved the goal of reducing the proportion of newborn calves that were virus-positive from 1.8% to under 0.2% within two years (situation in September 2010). Both good data flow between the parties involved as well as speed and efficiency (e.g. concerning the application of tests, movement restrictions and slaughter) are central to the success of the programme. Since the beginning of the programme 2.85 million cattle have been tested for bovine viral diarrhea virus (BVDV). The BVD-prevalence in cattle at the individual and herd levels following the implementation of the eradication programme was assessed. Using data collected during this campaign a risk factor analysis was conducted in order to identify factors associated with the appearance of virus positive newborn calves in herds where BVD had not previously been detected; these risk factors would allow targeting of future surveillance. Herd size, early death rate (i.e. the number of animals that either die before 15 days of age or are stillborn per number of newborns per year), buying in stock, using communal summer grazing, production type, age structure and management strategy were factors associated with the appearance of new cases of infection. Testing of newborn calves for antigen will continue to be conducted until the end of 2011, this is combined with outbreak investigation of newly infected herds (consisting of re-testing dams of virus-positive calves and if necessary all cattle on or that recently left the farm). This process is done to identify infected animals that may have been missed during prior testing (false negatives), it also serves to identify other factors that may be responsible for the introduction of BVDV onto the farm. Since October 2009, testing of calves for antigen combined with outbreak investigation has led to the detection of 55 infected animals that had tested negative (presumably false negative) during previous rounds of testing.     

Current value of historical and ongoing surveillance for disease freedom: surveillance for bovine Johne's disease in Western Australia

‘Confidence’ in freedom from disease is generally derived from multiple sources of varied surveillance information, and typically this surveillance evidence has been accumulated over time. In the state of Western Australia (WA) the main surveillance evidence supporting Free Zone status in the national bovine Johne's disease (BJD) program comprises periodic surveys and the ongoing clinical diagnostic system. This paper illustrates a simple approach to current valuation of historical surveillance information, based on the calculated sensitivity of the surveillance processes, the time elapsed since the data were accumulated, and the probability of new introduction of disease into the population during that elapsed time. Surveillance system components (SSCs) contributing to the overall sensitivity of the surveillance system were the clinical diagnostic system and periodic targeted surveys. Sensitivity of each component was estimated using a stochastic scenario tree model of the surveillance process as implemented. Probability of introduction of BJD into WA during each time period was estimated retrospectively from a stochastic import risk analysis model applied to actual cattle importation data. The probability that the WA cattle population was free from infection (at design prevalences of 0.2% of herds and 2% of animals within an infected herd) was estimated following each of 11 years, giving a median probability that the State was free of BJD (at these design prevalences) at the end of 2005 of 0.89. The meaning of this result is discussed.