EQUIVALENT-UNIT METHOD OF SHORT-TERM RELIABILITY EVALUATION FOR INTERCONNECTED POWER SYSTEMS

This paper presents the concept of equivalent-unit and the solution method of state probabilities for short-term reliability evaluation for generation systems. The ideas and methods are applied to evaluate short-term reliability of intercommected power systems,and the models of equivalent assistance,which can be conveniently combined with subsystem models,are propesed. The models and algorithm proposed not only solve the difficult problem of "state explosion" , but also improve the calculating accuracy. A numerical example is given to show that the models and algorithm are feasible and effective.     

Reliability Evaluation Model of Composite Generation and Transmission System Incorporating FACTS Devices

The utilization of Flexible AC Transimssion System(FACTS)technology has significant impact on power system reliability performance.Series FACTS devices such as Thyristor Controlled Phase Shifting Transformers(TCPSTs) and Thyristor Controlled Series Compensators(TCSCs) can change the natural allocation of the power flow and effectively alleviate transmission congestion.Parallel FACTS devices such as Static Var Compensators(SVCs)can provide reactive power support and maintain voltage stability.So it is important to quantitatively evaluate their benefits to the power system reliability.The traditional models of the composite generation and transmission system reliability evaluation are mainly focused on conventional generation and transmission facilities.This paper researches the power flow model of TCPST and TCSC,and then presents the optimal load shedding model incorporating TCPSTs,TCSCs and SVCs and effectively incorporates them into the reliability evaluation model.The proposed method is tested on the RBTS and the obtained results show that the system reliability can be improved effectually by FACTS devices.     

On the Analysis of Reliability Taking Precautions against Fire Calamities for the Systems of City Lifeline Engineering

This paper expounds the important meaning to guarantee and raise the reliability taking precautions against fire calamities for the system of city lifeline engineering.It quotes a large number of fire and fail cases to explain that it is a complex system engineering to evaluate the abiity of the fire systems in the city lifeline cngineering.It epresents some methods to evaluate the reliability of complex systems, these methods are being used in the different trades at the present. After comparing these evaluation methods, this paper presents the advantages and defects of analy tical method of the fail tree.It also shows clearly that this method can completely be competent at the job to analyze the reliability taking precautions against fire calamities for the city lifeline engi neering.     

The Probabilistic Production Simulation of Interconnected Generating Systems with Independent Loads

A new method, based on the direct method of weighting multiple normal distri butions, is proposed to evaluate the production costs of two interconnected systems. It can be applied in calculation of expected power generation, reliability indexes and production coats of two interconnected systems without their load correlation. The effect of the linking line on the interconnection is also studied.     

从输电阻塞角度建立的风电场容量可信度模型

风电并网时既要考虑系统的可靠性又要考虑输电阻塞。目前风电场容量可信度仅从可靠性单一角度提出。为此从输电阻塞角度提出了风电场容量可信度的定义;通过Monte Carlo法建立计及元件故障(发电机、线路和变压器)的风电场容量可信度模型,并提出该模型的二分法求解算法;同时还提出了风电阻塞指标以描述风电场并入电力系统对缓解系统输电阻塞的贡献。通过对修改的IEEE-RTS进行算例分析,验证了方法的正确性和实用性。结果表明：系统阻塞状况的缓解程度与并入风电场的位置有关,风电场容量可信度和风电阻塞指标相结合可以评价风电场并网对系统阻塞状况改善的有效性和经济性。     

OPTIMAL ACTIVE POWER ADJUSTMEMT OF LARGE HYBRID AC/DC SYSTEMS AFTER OUTAGE CONTINGENCIES WITH THE APPLICATION IN RELIABILITY EVALUATION

An optimal active power adjustment model is deve in this paper for hybrid AC/DC systems after outage contingencies. The objective of the model is to minimize the rejection of load when some elements are out of service, with adjustment strategy approaching practical system operation. A large number of outage contingencies are simulated when the Monte-Carlo Method is emyloyed to evaluate the system reliability, requiring fast calculation of each simulation. The model and computer method proposed in this paper satisfy such a requirment because of the application of concentric relaxation, recursive branch constraint treatment in linear programming and a direct method for B-1 matrix modification. This paper is concerned with the simplified steady state conditions of the system based on DC load-flow, which implies the reliability indices calculated are the measures about static loss of load. The results for a 14-bus hybrid AC/DC system are given.     

A reliability evaluation model for photovoltaic/diesel hybrid power generation system

Photovoltaic power generation is considered to be one of the most promising power generation forms. It is difficult to accurately assess the reliability of the photovoltaic system (PVS) for the volatility and intermittent of the light intensity. By analyzing PVS component failure modes and their impacts on PVS output power, the reliability model of PVS is built. Then the probability model of PVS output power is presented by considering both illumination uncertainty and PVS component random faults. According to the influence of components random faults outside the intentional islands on the reliability of load points inside the intentional islands, the concepts of repair zone, isolation zone and zero zone are defined. Furthermore, by considering the fail-operation of breaker and fuse, the concept for zone hierarchy is proposed, and the analytical formulas to calculate reliability indices of the load points inside the intentional islands are deduced. The application of the presented reliability evaluation model is clarified using a typical example to show the practicality and validity of the proposed approach.     

Improvement Algorithm of Generation Cost Based on Reliability

This paper discusses the influenced manner of reliability on bidding, and establishes the direct functional relationship among reliability, generation cost and electricity price in different risk of power generation. In this function model, the generation cost and the price could reflect the current reliability of equipment in a dynamic way. The generation risk is also considered in competitive bidding. The bidding strategy based on this model helps the power plant acquire the optimal benefit.     

Fuzzy Optimization for Reliability Apportionment of Series system

This paper points out that there are many factors which affect the reliability optimization apportionment of the series system which is in nature a problem of fuzzy optimization. In the light of this paper puts foreword a method for the reliability apportionment of the series system. Moreover, it is discussed with fuzzy optimization apportionment of the system reliability under the conditions of given source constraints.     

COMPOSITE SYSTEM RELIABILITY EVALUATION CONSIDERING LOAD MODEL

The study for dealing with the load model in composite system reliability evaluation is almost at a standstill because of the inherent computational complexity. In this paper, an algorithm for composite system reliability evaluation considering load model is proposed. This method is powerful in computation because it can avoid unnecessary state enumeration by means of the relationship among basic reliability informations of load levels. As an example, the IEEE 24-node Reliability Test System is tested on VAX-11/750 computer. The average CPU time to calculate the reliability indices of the system corresponding to a load level is about 5 seconds.     

NLPNN Model in Power Systems Reliability Evaluation

The purpose of a power system is to deliver the power the customers require in real time, on demand, within acceptable voltage and frequency limit, and in a reliable and economic manner. Using NLPNN (New Linear Programming Neural Network) model, the behavior analysis of power system under fault conditions is carried through. The stability and convergence theorems are set up to obtain the resolution for the problem of the load curtailment strategy. A new way is open up to evaluate the reliability of power systems and the great progress in calculation analysis model is achieved. The new calculation technique and theory foundation of reliability evaluation are supplied.     

Equivalent Duffing System Method of Nonlinear System Dynamic Reliability Analysis

Equivalent linear system method is the main method of nonlinear structural system random response analysis. While it would generate big error when the results of equivalent linear system method are used to analyze the structural dynamic reliability. Through minimum mean square error principle, general nonlinear system was converted to equivalent Duffing nonlinear system, based on which the structural dynamic reliability was analyzed. The accurate steady state analytic solution of Duffing nonlinear system can be worked out by FPK equation, so it is not only convenient but also accurate to analyze structural dynamic reliability by using the equivalent nonlinear system method. It is also shown that the analysis results of equivalent nonlinear system method presented here is reliable and the calculation accuracy is higher than equivalent linear system method apparently through the example analysis.     

A New Monte Carlo Method Based on State Analysis

A new Monte Carlo Method for system reliability evaluation is proposed in this paper. The repeated sampling of system states with relatively great probabilities is avoided in the simulation,thus the sampling efficiency is significantly improved. Besides,the negative correlations used in different trials can further reduce the estimated varinaces. The sparse matrix technique is employed to reduce the memory requirement and to save the computer time. Comparative studies show that the method proposed is of great value and the application to the IEEE reliability test system (power system) is successful.     

THE MONTE-CARLO METHOD FOR RELIABILITY EVALUATION OF LARGE SCALE COMPOSITE GENERETION-TRANSMISSION SYSTEMS

The paper presents a Monte-carlo method for reliability evaluation of large scale composite generation transmission systems. The method, which possesses coputational rapidity and sufficient accuracy,is based on combining the dispersed sampling techique with the analysis approach and the optimization model of power not supplied. Because the amount of calculation increases only linearly with, the number of elements, it is specially sui- table for large scale systems. The Monte-carlo sampling draws more near the real situation than determinate state enumeration in simulating occurrence of power system outages. Also, the method can be easily generalized to involve multi-states of elements, multi-levels and stochastic distribution of loads. The results of IEEE-RTS, as example, are given and compared with ones obtained by using the other two methods.     

Automatic feature extraction algorithm for porphyrin sensor array images

A feature extraction algorithm for porphyrin sensor array (PSA) images is presented. At the first step, it achieves an automatic tilt correction for PSA images based on radon transform. Then automatic mesh generation is applied to PSA images based on the method of combining projection binarization and mathematical statistics. The areas of porphyrin spots are locating by local threshold segmentation for the images which have achieved mesh generation. Finally, feature values of porphyrin spots are extracted by radius ratio method from the porphyrin spot areas. The algorithm solves the problem that identification of weak signal spots is quite difficult, and the extracted feature values are the maximum point to reflect the information of porphyrin spots. By ammonia, isoprene, aldehydes and other gases tests, the results show that the algorithm can effectively extract feature values of porphyrin spots in PSA images.     

Method of Exciting in Towards Polarity by Stator-electricity of Synchronous Motor

In order to solve the present problems and enhance the reliability of exitation exist in asynchronous starting of synchronous electrical machine, a method of sensorless best exciting in towards polarity by stator-electricity of synchronous motor is presented on the base of calculated best exciting time through simulation. Detect and analyze the wave of stator current to catch the best exitation time accurately to realize best exitation. The results of experiment demonstrated the advantages of high reliability, short time and low impact when pulling into step, much easier to pull into step in low voltage and heavy load condition. Which showed the feasibility of this method.     

A method of choosing locations based on genotype × environment interaction for regional trials of rice

An ideal test location with particular environmental conditions should generate a relatively large genotype × environment interaction (GE) value in regional trials. A method of selecting test locations based on GE was proposed. Using the statistic D_j, the ranking of ability to discriminate the best genotypes for locations could be obtained. The locations among the group with the smallest D_j value were deleted from the whole set step by step, and the number of locations was reduced to a rational level at which most (over 85%) of the GE sum of squares of trials were maintained. A comparative evaluation based on data collected from Zhejiang Province (China) rice regional trials showed that the new method was more feasible than two other methods without loss of accuracy and reliability.     

基于DERF2.0对黑龙江省初夏降水的客观预测

基于国家气候中心第二代模式业务系统(DERF2.0)资料,开展了黑龙江省初夏(6月)1983～2013年的历史回报检验工作。通过经验正交分解法(EOF)和最优子集回归(OSR)分析模式降尺度解释应用的预测结果,利用短期气候预测综合业务评分PS以及距平相关系数ACC等方法评估模式降尺度对黑龙江省初夏降水的预测性能,并且与模式直接预测要素结果进行对比。结果发现,DERF2.0模式降尺度解释应用的预测要明显好于模式直接预测要素。此外,DERF2.0模式降尺度解释应用对2004年和2009年的极端旱涝年预测也有一定的技巧。     

Development of a Novel Intellectual Transmission Line Inspection System

The power transmission line is one of the important parts of electrical power system,the management and inspection of the transmission lines have been significant routine job ensuring the reliability of the transmission system. This paper describes in detail the basic principle of the intellectual transmission line inspection system using Geographic Information System(GIS) and Global Position System(GPS) technology.This novel inspection system is composed of pocket PC,GPS receiver and management PC,and takes full advantage of modern computer and network communication technique.Owing to the advantages of high reliability,practicability and scalability,the practical application of this intellectual inspection system shows that it completely meets the requirements for fast speed,high efficiency and real-time performance.     

Synthetic aperture radar raw signal generation and image simulation of typical targets

Synthetic aperture radar (SAR) raw signal generation and SAR image simulation of typical targets are very significant for the validation of SAR imaging algorithms, the interpretation of SAR images, and automatic target recognition of SAR images. Based on analysis of the existing SAR raw signal generation and SAR image simulation methods, a new method for SAR raw signal generation and SAR image simulation is proposed. This method combined the curved surface pixel method (CSPM) and the two dimensional FFT (2DFFT) based SAR raw signal generation model. CSPM is used to calculate the target reflectivity, while the 2DFFT method is employed to obtain the raw signal. The simulations are carried out, and the effectiveness of this method is validated by the results of simulating some typical targets.