白术生产的财务分析

摘 要：【研究目的】指导白术产业化生产。【方法】以2008年重庆市酉阳县社会经济发展状况、白术市场行情为基础,采用农业项目投资评估的方法,开展白术生产（20hm2,r=10%）的财务分析。【结果】估算投入57.18万元,投资利润率2.5%、NPV 0.6万元、IRR13.9%、产量及就地销售价格的盈亏平衡点（动态）分别为2 960 kg/hm2、9.9元/kg、销售价格对NPV的影响最敏感。【结论】白术生产具有一定社会、经济效益,存在一定市场风险。     

丹皮(垫江)生产的经济分析

摘要 目的：指导丹皮产业化生产。方法：以2008年重庆市垫江县社会经济发展状况、丹皮市场行情为基础,采用农业项目投资评估的方法,开展丹皮生产（20 hm2,r=10%）的经济分析。结果：估算投入93.5 万元,投资利润率8.4%、NPV 5.29 万元、IRR 13.3%,产量及就地销售价格的盈亏平衡点（动态）分别为4 830 kg?hm-2、11.2 元/kg,销售价格对NPV的影响最敏感。结论：具有一定经济、社会效益,但存在市场风险。     

Uncertainty Analysisof Financial Evaluation of Investment Project and Its Application

The economy index used in investment project is usually influenced by many uncertain factors because the basic data of which comes from forecast and budget. This paper studies such common uncertain analysis method as balance analysis of profit and loss, sensitivity analysis. The problems in these methods are pointed out and a new method of uncertainty analysis based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process and Monte Carlo method is advanced, along with its compute method in economy analysis of investment project. To an investment project, the authors set the NPV as the goal, set investment amount, prosecution cost and product price as the simulant values, which have relatively great effect on NPV. By using the new method in uncertain analysis, the conclusion can be drawn that the project is greatly influenced by the uncertain factors of future and it has high risk. A case study demonstrates that the new method can synthetically analyze the financial variety caused by uncertain factors.     

宁夏回族自治区土地整治项目绩效评价

本研究采用AHP（层次分析法）和多层次模糊综合评价法,构建土地整治项目绩效评价体系,并对其进行实证分析。笔者以宁夏回族自治区土地整治项目中的10个试点项目为例,结合项目区实际情况,从资金使用情况、项目执行情况、项目管理情况和项目建设情况4个维度进行评价,旨在为土地整治项目绩效评价提供新的思路与方法。结果表明：宁夏回族自治区土地整治项目绩效等级优良,占81%。建议从设立土地整治绩效评价机构,建立健全信息报备系统,建立电子绩效评价系统3方面入手,建立土地整治项目绩效评价的长效机制。     

Application of Risk Analysis to the Financial Evaluation of Construction Projects

Every sort of financial indexes of the construction project is a value occurred in future. It has a random character, so the estimation of these indexes in early stage is surely a matter of risk. In practice, the investors often choose a construction project only by simple estimation rather by deep financial evaluation and risk analysis. In this paper, taking the project NPV as an example and applying risk analysis to its estimation, the authors develop a totally new economic evaluation method for construction projects.     

Study on Analysis Methods for Rock Slope FoundationStability of the Highrise Building

Based on the practical project a study on analysis methods for rock slope foundation stability of highrise-building project criterion transfer coefficient method, rotation limit equilibrium method (Sweden slices method) and finite element method was carried out.The authors found that safety factor of criterion transfer coefficient method is larger than that of rotation limit equilibrium method, but is similar to the results of finite element method. So, when rockslope foundation stability of highrise building is to be analysed,the rotation limit equilibrium method is suggested to use.     

Value Engineering Applied in the Bidding

Project bidding and assessing aim at choosing the best bidder, and then achieve the best optimization of bidder's value aim. The current method of project bidding does not qualifiedly describe the connection among the quality, time limit for the project, and investment of engineering project, so it can not exactly evaluate the bidder's value aim. Consequently, this is not beneficial to achieve the best value. Value engineering is a function analysis method achieving the necessary functions at the lowest cost of total lifetime cycle. Based on the analysis of the existing issues in the valuating system, this paper provides some improvement on the current valuating methods and scientific basis for choosing the best bidder through calculating the value coefficient such as function, cost and value.     

中国黄河中上游造林项目区域可持续发展效益评价－内蒙古中西部地区为例

摘 要：本文在分析生态、经济、社会可持续发展基础上,建立了一套指标体系与赋值标准在内的区域可持续发展评价方法,该方法中评价内容包括工程实施及政策执行情况、生态、经济、社会效益四项内容。采用该体系对内蒙古自治区乌审旗、伊金霍洛旗、五原县和清水河县在日元贷款造林后的变化进行定量分析。结果表明：工程实施及政策执行情况权重占20%、生态指标权重占20%,经济是决定社会发展,其权重占30%,社会权重占30%,进行区域可持续发展评价,通过四个旗县可持续发展评价指标体系的对比知伊金霍洛旗无论在经济、生态,还是社会效益方面数值有了很大的提高,伊金霍洛旗总分为80.12。其它三个旗县也取得了显著生态效益、经济效益、社会效益,乌审旗、五原县、清水河县总分分别为77.71、80.12、74、79.98。研究结果证明,此方法是可行的。     

土地整理的工程设计方案研究——以重庆市彭水县乌江村为例

为了研究中国西部地区农村土地整理工程中专业设计方案在实际工作中的应用情况,笔者应用数学分析法、实地调查研究法、抽样调查研究法进行研究。土地整理设计方案是指导施工的前提,因此需要专业和严谨,而土地整理工程设计方法滞后,各土地整理机构方法不统一,主要受制度和经济制约。笔者从土地开发整理的工程设计角度入手,采用定量的分析方法,通过对村级土地平整工程设计、农田水利工程设计及田间道路工程设计,对低山丘陵区的土地整理工作提出建议,提出村级土地整理工程工作的建议。     

政府主导下的农业项目扶贫效果及影响因素分析——基于西藏藏鸡养殖项目的调查

为了解西藏地区近年来基层扶贫项目的成效,及时发现并纠正扶贫工作中出现的问题,在实地调研的基础上,以"强基惠民"活动下西藏山南地区扎西村和拉玉村的藏鸡养殖扶贫项目为研究对象,采用效益分析和比较分析方法,对2个藏鸡养殖项目进行效果评价,以期提高政府主导下的扶贫项目效率。评估发现,西藏小规模村级扶贫养殖项目多脱离基层实际,效果不明显,效果不明显的原因是由恶劣的自然条件、薄弱的基础设施、落后的监管体制、缺失的激励机制以及宗教思想观念等因素共同造成的。总的说来,西藏基层扶贫项目需首先解决定位不准的问题。     

从云北灌区剖析忻定盆地治碱的经济效益

本文对已建的一个中型灌区工程效益进行了全面的、系统的分析,收集了排水改碱和灌溉工程三十三年来实际投资和效益材料,采用了静态和动态两种分析方法,不仅看出了忻定盆地治碱的潜力大、成本低、效益高,而且其方法也可供同类工程进行经济分析时参考.     

Constitutive Equations for Thermo-mechanical Coupling Problems

The conflict events that occurred in construction engineering project(CEP) bring about a lot of adverse influence on project implementation.Furthermore,there is a limitation for five modes used to deal with the conflicts in favor of the project management,which is proved by the practice.On the basis of investigation,the authors bring to light the multi-attributive characteristics of the conflict events through clustering analysis,and put forward a new concept as co-adaptability aiming at solving the conflict events in CEP,and building up a new project management mechanism based on the new concept and a new mode to deal with the conflict events based on the whole project benefit.So,this research offers not only a new idea but also a new method of solving conflict events in CEP.     

Study on Application of Value - at - Risk to the Risk Evaluation of Construction Project Bidding

The value-at-risk(VaR) model is a statistical model to estimate and control financial risk,and used to measure the most probable loss on the next deal stage of financial asset portfolio.Based on the principle of the value-at-risk,in this paper the value-at-risk is to be applied to the risk evaluation of construction project.Assuming the sub-project prices abide by the BQ model are random variable which conform to normal distribution,this paper has built up the portfolio of project according to biding and quoted price of construction project,and adopted the variance-covariance method to measure the value-at-risk of the biding and quoted price in order to provide a feasible risk analysis tool for the evaluation of construction project bidding.     

工程移民中的土地开发整理实证研究 ——以四川省石棉县为例

通过对石棉后备土地资源特点和工程移民的安置任务研究，探讨在工程移民中的土地开发整理模式。采用实证分析与规范研究相结合的方法。工程移民的土地开发整理中存在工程防护、开发未利用地、生物工程、权属调整和高效生态农业等5种模式，并且指出在土地开发整理过程中必须解决的重点是水利设施的建设和客土土壤的建设。工程移民中的土地开发整理模式选择必须因地制宜，同时必须注意生态环境的保护，提供合理的生态安全对策。     

Research on the System and Models of Society-Economy-Environment Appraisal for Construction Project

The society-economy-environment appraisal for construction project can help our government to control macro-economy, make correlation policy and formulate laws and draw up city plan.It has great influence on the sustainable development of our society and it is the demand of the law for the environment evaluation in China.This paper introduced the basic structure of society-economy-environment appraisal system for construction project and the thought of elements transaction.Using the method of AHP, the model of project analyzing and optimizing selection is designed.For the more, the methods of the optimizing models on the selected schemes are put forward.Finally, the integrative analysis has been made on the system design and appliance of this appraisal system.     

Application of Flow Analysis to Risk Management of Land Investment

Combined with the development flow of real estate project,firstly a flow analysis is put forward for land investment risk identification of real estate projects,then by method of list analysis and method of expectancy computing to determine the risk level and the gain and loss of expectancy of land investment.Based on the relation and flow chart of land investment risk,the risk intensity of land investment is computed,in order to achieve an objective,effective and scientific dynamic management of land investment risk.     

农业综合开发科技推广的特征分析与模式创新研究 ——?以南通市优质稻米产业区为例

科技推广作为农业综合开发项目重要组成部分，运作的好与差将直接影响着项目实施效果。分析了农业综合开发科技推广具有综合性、主导性、普及性、应用性等基本特征。结合南通市的具体实际，以机制创新为突破，从农业综合开发科技推广的运行、组织、推广等层面探索出工作新模式。提出了通过推行科技委托制创新其运行模式、建立推广项目组创新其组织模式、健全联动新机制创新其推广模式。并以南通市优质稻米产业区为例进行了探索与实践，科技推广工作取得了显著成效，有效地发挥了科技在农业综合开发项目中的支撑作用。     

土地开发整理工程质量评价体系研究

研究为确保土地开发整理项目工程质量，规范土地开发整理验收管理工作提供科学依据。依据土地开发整理有关理论，提出选取工程质量评价因素应遵循的原则。运用特尔菲法选取了耕地平整、农田水利、道路、生态环境以及土壤自然质量等为河北省太行山山地丘陵区土地开发整理工程质量评价因素及因子，运用“层次分析法（AHP）”对各个工程质量因素赋予权重，并用加权平均法求得工程质量综合分值，最后对工程质量划分等级，便于指导土地开发整理项目验收和管理工作。     

A Dynamic Grey Fuzzy Evaluation Method for Financing Risk in Freeway Project

There are many risks that influence freeway project financing and the influence of these risks differ by project stage. However, it is impossible to analyze the total risk of project financing objectively and accurately merely using the fuzzy or grey evaluation methods. These methods cannot reflect the dynamic characteristics of financing risks during freeway project construction. A dynamically grey fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method was established and used to evaluate the financing risks of a freeway project. The results indicate that this method can not only make full use of the rich experience of the experts, but also reduce the influence of subjective factors. In addition, this method can reflect the dynamic characteristics of the financing risks during freeway project construction. Investors therefore can pertinently prevent and control financing risks based on the results of the evaluation of financing risks in every stage of the project. A demonstration shows that the method is suitable for comprehensive evaluation of financing risks of infrastructure projects such as freeways.