基于环境库兹涅茨曲线的中国森林转型分析

文中利用环境库兹涅茨曲线这一研究工具,试图厘清经济增长与森林转型之间的内在关联,探明影响中国森林面积变化的主要因素及作用机制。基于中国28个省（区、市）的面板数据,研究结果表明,与传统的倒“U”型环境库兹涅茨曲线关系不同,中国存在“U”型森林环境库兹涅茨曲线,即经济增长有助于森林面积的恢复,但并非持续推动我国森林面积增长的原因。文中进一步验证了作为政府行为的林业财政投资与造林项目实施在我国森林面积恢复与增长中发挥了关键性作用。     

森林碳汇环境库兹涅茨曲线特征及其影响因素分析

文中基于2004-2020年中国省际面板数据,运用环境库兹涅茨模型实证分析森林碳汇与经济发展水平之间的关系,通过面板数据灰色关联模型测算森林碳汇与各影响因素之间的关联度。研究发现：森林碳汇与经济发展水平之间的关系呈“N”型曲线;从整体上看,各影响因素与森林碳汇的灰色关联度都较高,从大到小依次为劳动要素投入、造林面积、森林采伐、林业产业发展水平、营林固定资产投资、森林受灾程度;具体来看,全国4大林区森林碳汇与各影响因素的灰色关联度具有差异性。建议提高森林资源经营管理水平,完善森林碳汇市场,促进林业产业结构升级,以助力林业经济高质量发展。     

基于环境库兹涅茨曲线的浙江省制造业与水污染关系研究

依据浙江省1998～2009年工业废水排放量和全省6大主体制造业总产值的统计数据,通过分析6大主题制造业的环境库兹涅茨曲线,建立了制造业各个行业的废水排放量与其人均总产值的相关性计量模型,以研究制造业与水污染之间的关系。     

加拿大森林资源环境库兹涅茨曲线验证——基于林木生长周期的视角

利用加拿大1990—2010年林产品产量数据, 采用环境库兹涅茨曲线模型, 考察加拿大经济增长与森林资源采伐量之间的关系。与以往研究不同的是, 在回归模型中加入了代表林木生长周期的时间序列变量, 以探讨林木生长周期对森林资源采伐量的影响。结果显示, 加拿大森林资源采伐量与经济增长存在倒U型曲线关系, 且林木生长周期对曲线形状的影响显著。从研究结果得到的政策启示是, 在设置森林采伐限额时应注意林木的生长周期, 在林木初生长期应降低采伐限额来保护幼树, 从而为采伐迹地天然更新提供充足的种源和条件。     

基于库兹涅茨曲线的中国南方集体林区森林质量转型动因分析

森林转型理论提供了全球可能经历的森林恢复途径,但已有研究主要关注森林数量.文中从广义上提出森林多维转型并重点关注森林质量转型,从森林生长性、树种多样性、结构稳定性和森林健康性4个方面对森林质量进行衡量,通过构建森林转型影响因素分析框架对中国南方集体林区10个省(区)(浙江、安徽、福建、江西、湖北、湖南、广东、广西、贵州...     

关于林木采伐管理的几点思考

从三明市的实际出发,对林木采伐限额和木材生产计划、林木采伐指标分配、天然商品林采伐管理、自然灾害林木采伐四方面存在的问题进行了分析,并提出了有针对性的建议,旨在为科学制定森林采伐限额提供决策依据。     

Deforestation and reforestation needs in Mongolia

This paper provides a brief background to Mongolia’s forest condition in 1994. Over recent years, since the introduction of a market economy and decentralization, there has been a rapid change in the forest sector. In 1994, the total designated forest area of Mongolia was 17.5 million ha, including 12.7 million ha of closed forest or 8.1% of the total land area. The forests are subdivided into (i) special forests; (ii) protection forests; (iii) industrial forests, based on their basic functions. The main causes of deforestation in Mongolia are (i) increasing livestock numbers; (ii) increasing demand for fuel and industrial wood; (iii) the impact of forest fires. Grazing and browsing in forest areas are most destructive to plantations and tree growth, causing deformities and stunting growth. Livestock breeding without adequate management system has major negative impacts on remnant forest growth. According to some statistics, the forest area has decreased by 1.2 million ha over the last 20 years. At present, production and supply of sawn timber boards for the domestic market is carried out without any regard to the actual quantity required. Major wood-based products in Mongolia are railway sleepers, windows and doors, wooden boxes for packing and school and office furniture. Products are also made for the frames of the traditional Mongolian “Ger” and specialized furniture for the interior. By 1996, Mongolia’s forest industry had total sales of US$ 2.1 million, which was 13% more than the previous year.Between 1992 and 1995, the incidence of fires in forest areas increased because a sharp rise in the number of people using the forest and steppe areas to cut trees, pick berries and nuts, collect firewood and deer horns, and to hunt. Mismanagement and negligence of the relevant authorities also contributed to this situation. It is necessary to take strong measures in order to identify the social and economic causes of fire outbreaks. Since 1970, forestry and timber harvesting companies have begun to harvest wild seeds, breed seedlings and conduct reforestation activities. Between 1980 and 1990, on nationwide level, over 20 million standard seedlings were planted in over 40 permanent nurseries to supply the reforestation work. At that time the scope of reforestation expanded. The total area planted over some 30 years has been very small compared to the deforestation. Even if just the area harvested during that period is considered, the reforestation rate is still lower than 15%.     

Deforestation in a Complex Landscape

Abstract

Deforestation is often the primary threat to conservation goals in tropical countries. However, accessing the remote locations in which most remaining forests of conservation value occur makes it difficult to quantify deforestation trends and to galvanize preventive action. Using remotely sensed images we were able to quantify rates of forest loss in La Amistad Biosphere Reserve, Panama. Annual deforestation rates were low between 1987 and 1998 at 0.05% but increased nearly 12-fold between 1998 and 2001 to 0.6%. Net forest loss was 0.56% between 1987 and 1998 and 2.34% between 1998 and 2001. Deforestation rates differed significantly between protected areas. Protected areas on the Caribbean side of the Biosphere Reserve experienced greater levels of deforestation than those on the Pacific, even though both absolute and percent forest cover are higher on the Caribbean. Most forest conversion was for cattle pasture and an area of industrial cattle ranching was identified within the Palo Seco and PILA protected areas as a priority for enforcement activities. Forest conversion to pasture was highly correlated with proximity to roads, rivers, and villages (p < 0.001). The spatial scale of correlation varied between feature types, suggesting a greater area of impact from roads and towns versus rivers. The acceleration of forest conversion from 1998 to 2001 confirms the negative ecological impact of the recent increase in population and development pressure in this previously isolated region.     

论村民小组的毁林犯罪主体

毁林犯罪的主体既可以是自然人也可以是单位,不同的定性结果当事人的刑事责任不同。村民小组长为了本组集体利益而实施的毁林犯罪,林业执法实践中有的按小组长个人犯罪处罚,有的则以单位犯罪论处。为了执法的准确与公正,本文从村民小组的法律地位和相关法律适用等方面,分析了村民小组在毁林犯罪中的单位犯罪主体资格。     

Deforestation and forest degradation in Papua New Guinea

? The Government of Papua New Guinea (PNG) has played a prominent part in recent negotiations for “rainforest nations” to be compensated for reducing greenhouse gas emissions from deforestation or forest degradation (DFD).

? A new report “The State of the Forests of Papua New Guinea” claims that rates of DFD in PNG are much higher than have previously reported. It suggests more than half of PNG’s remaining forests will have disappeared or be damaged beyond recovery by 2021.

? We argue that this claim is incorrect. The report overestimates the area of intact primary forest in 1972 and the impact of traditional land use practices on forest cover. Much of what the RSLUP report considers as deforestation is part of a cycle of traditional clearance for farming, fallow and regrowth that has been occurring for hundreds of years.

? The assumption that areas impacted by harvesting or shifting cultivation will inevitably degrade and become non-forest is also not supported by observation of cutover forest in PNG. A considerable proportion of cutover forest areas will recover carbon stocks after harvesting.

? It is argued that traditional land use practices and forest recovery processes need to be considered in assessing greenhouse gas emissions from deforestation and degradation in countries with complex land use histories such as PNG.

     

Deforestation and forest fragmentation in the highlands of Eastern Ghats,India

Tropical forest cover change along with increasing fragmentation has detrimental effects on the global biodiversity. In the current study change in both forest cover and fragmentation of Koraput district have been assessed in the past three decades(1987-2017) and future decade(2017-2027), which has been modelled using logistic regression showing a gradual decrease in the forest cover and increase in fragmentation. The long term deforestation rates from 1987 to 2017(current period) and from 1987 to 2027(predicted period) were found to be-0.018 and-0.012, respectively. Out of the total geographical area, 2027 number of grids(1 km2) out of 8856 grids were found to have shown extinction of forest in the study period. The conversion of forested lands into other land uses has been one of the major causes of deforestation in Koraput, especially because of the increasing mining activities and establishment of three major industries namely National Aluminium Company(NALCO), Damanjodi, Hindustan Aeronautics Limited(HAL), Sunabeda and Ballarpur Industries Limited(BILT). The forest fragmentation reveals a negative trend, recording highest conversion from large core fragments to edge(191.33 km2) and the predicted period has also shown the same trend of negative change, which poses serious danger to the structure of the forests. Out of all the landscape matrices calculated, number of patches will increase to 214 in 2027 from 93 in 1987. In the test between geographically weighted regression(GWR) and ordinary least square regression(OLS), GWR was the better fit model for drawing a spatial relationship between forest cover and fragmentation changes. The study confirmed that the forest cover change has impacted the forest fragmentation in the study area. The programmes like REDD + should be implemented along with the experiences of Community Forest Management and the joint forest management should be intensified at community level in order to develop better management practices to conserve habitats in biodiversity rich areas.     

Drivers of Deforestation in the Lake Victoria Crescent,Uganda

We examined key drivers of deforestation in the Lake Victoria Crescent, Uganda from 1989 to 2009 through a case study approach with a multiple-case design. Nineteen focus groups with local community members and forest officials, archival analysis, and field observation revealed both proximate causes and underlying drivers of deforestation. Proximate causes of deforestation included agricultural expansion into forests, unsustainable extraction of wood forest products, and clearing of forests for nonagricultural uses. Underlying drivers of these proximate causes included policy and institutional factors, economic factors, population growth, technological changes, and changes in culture—each resulting in alienation of local people from forest resources. Alienation of local people, defined as a psychological dispossession of responsibility for forest resources, is posited as the most important underlying driver of deforestation. We discuss the importance of the involvement of local people in the management and maintenance of forests in the Lake Victoria Crescent.     

世界毁林趋势及其原因和后果

全球森林每年消毁达1100万公顷,主要是发展中国家的热带森林,温带森林变化不大,有些国家还有所增加。但面临着酸雨的危害,造成部分地区森林片状衰亡。森林消毁的原因是:(1)滥伐而不更新;(2)砍伐森林转为农业用地或牧场;(3)砍伐大量燃料用材。森林大幅度消减后所带来的后果;(1)影响气候变化,使全球性水文循环失调,改变了大气的组成,增加大气中二氧化碳含量,造成增温;(2)加剧水源区土壤侵蚀,造成河流下游泥沙淤积;(3)不少动植物物种濒临灭绝。     

Regional Comparative Advantage,Location of Agriculture,and Deforestation in Brazil

ABSTRACT

This article highlights how deforestation is not only linked to economic processes within the Amazon, but also to economic forces in the rest of Brazil. In light of recent trends in Brazil's agricultural production inside and outside the Amazon, this article maintains that the growing importance of beef production in the Amazon relative to the rest of Brazil is likely to lead to further increases in deforestation. From 1991 to 2001 the Amazon's share of the Brazilian bovine herd increased from 15% to 25%—an average change of 1% per year. With the Brazilian herd size in 2003 estimated at 196 million head of cattle, the current rate of increase implies an increase of 1.96 million cattle per year in the Amazon. At Brazil's average stocking rate of 1.1 head of cattle per hectare, it means that an additional 18,000 km² of land are needed each year in the Amazon to account for this expansion. However, Brazil has abundant agricultural land outside the Amazon to meet increases in demand for beef. The difficulty lies in the comparative advantage of these other areas in producing soy and grains as opposed to livestock. I conclude that targeting resources toward specific agricultural development opportunities outside the Amazon—especially grain-fed beef— would be an effective way to reduce incentives to clear land in the Amazon.     

在盗伐、滥伐案件技术鉴定中常用的材积测定方法

文章着眼于盗砍、滥伐林木材积的测定,依据测树学教材和林业专家的理论成果,整理了针对不同案件现场状况和不同林木盗伐、滥伐状况下的林木材积测定方法和计算公式,借此方便一般林业案件技术鉴定工作的有效开展。     

黄土高原子午岭森林破碎化对流域水文过程的影响

以子午岭南部的三水河流域为例,选择年径流深度、最大月径流量、侵蚀模数和河流平均含沙量等作为水文过程参数,基于流域降水和各水文参量的变化趋势分析降水变化和森林破碎化对水文过程的影响.利用1976年以来的4期土地利用变化数据,分析林地面积与水文过程各参量之间的关系,建立基于降水和林地面积两种因素的水文过程统计模拟模型.结果表明:1976年以来,由于森林破碎化,尤其是上游连片分布的森林景观斑块化,使流域年径流深度增加了62.85%,侵蚀模数增加了90.76%,最大月径流量和河流平均泥沙含量分别增大了58.36%和63.21%,其中林地面积的减少对年径流深度的贡献率为72.35%,对最大月径流量的贡献率为45.18%,对侵蚀模数和河流泥沙平均含量的贡献率分别为86.73%和79.61%.     

严格采伐限额管理加强“三总量“控制

从3个方面论述了加强"三总量"控制的方式方法.     

盗伐、滥伐林木材积测定(之一)

盗伐、滥伐林木材积涉及案件的性质和处罚。用1株伐倒木资料，分别立木状态、伐倒木状态计算其材积。为保证材积测定准确，当盗伐、滥伐林木呈伐倒木状态，且数量少时，宜采用中央断面区分求积式、牛顿区分求积式或二元材积表测定材积。     

Spatial Modeling of Tropical Deforestation Using Socioeconomic and Biophysical Data

Tropical forests are disappearing at an alarming rate. In Central America, a hectare of forest is cleared for agriculture every 5 min. This study was conducted in a forested 4,000 ha watershed of central Honduras to find deforestation causes based on socio-economic characteristics of population. First, a multitemporal analysis of Landsat TM imagery was conducted to determine deforestation rates and agricultural–forest boundaries. A GIS buffer procedure allowed determining which households were at the deforestation front and which households were located at the rest of the area (control). GIS techniques were used to extract biophysical information such as slope, elevation, land cover, temperature, precipitation, etc. Then, we set up a data base with more than 50 socioeconomic variables (level of education, income, children per family, major economic activity, use of conservation practices, etc.). Around 500 households, distributed all over the watershed, were visited, interviewed and GPS-located. A multivariate statistical analysis allowed an exploratory analysis to eliminate non useful and redundant variables and then to determine what variables appear to be important predictors of deforestation behavior among rural families. A resulting logistic regression model showed that household with lower annual income heads and with less use of conservation practices were more statistically prone to clear the forest (α = 0.001). The study uncovered the complexity of this problem and confirmed the need of using GIS–remote sensing techniques to combine socioeconomic and environmental data in several time–space dimensions to find the causes and trends of tropical deforestation.     

浅议滥伐林木刑事法律制度的设置

我国《森林法》对滥伐林木行为的法律规制产生于特殊历史背景,随着市场经济体制的发展完善,其中的部分刑事法律制度设置已不能满足产权保护需要,尤其是滥伐林木刑事法律制度在设计中所存在的问题被放大,不能适应快速发展的林业改革形势。本文从滥伐林木行为入罪的合理性,滥伐行为主体、对象以及定罪量刑方面存在的问题提出针对性建议。