Development and evaluation of a pastoral simulation model that predicts dairy cattle performance based on animal genotype and environmental sensitivity information

A dairy cattle simulation model for pastoral systems that considers how dairy cow genotypes respond to different environments is described. The dairy cow is represented by five modules for maintenance, pregnancy, growth, body energy reserves and lactation with the influence of environmental factors on processes included within each module. Feed intake is predicted based on the requirements for maintenance, growth and pregnancy, and the dairy cow’s potential for yields of milk, fat and protein and body fat change in a given environment. The effects of various temporary environmental factors such as cow body condition score, climate, feed quality and the stage of pregnancy are all considered when predicting yields of milk, fat and protein, energy and dry matter intake. The model was evaluated using information from a prior experimental study with 1990s Holstein-Friesian dairy cattle of North American/European or New Zealand origin managed in a pasture-based system in early to peak lactation. The model was able to predict, to a high degree of accuracy, mean values for yields of milk, fat and protein, and concentrations of fat and protein. However for individual cows, feed intake and live weight change were less reliably predicted. The major source of error was a lack of simulated variation, rather than any systematic bias. The major advance of the model is its ability to predict performance from genetic and environmental sensitivity information for particular breeds, and its ability to predict feed intake and yields of milk, fat and protein concurrently.     

A model to estimate the performance,revenues and costs of dairy cows under different production and price situations

A model was constructed and validated to determine the course of performance, revenues and costs of dairy cows with different levels of milk production and of number of days open. For each month in lactation the revenues from milk production, which are dependent on the fat and protein contents, were determined. The feed costs were calculated from consumption of roughage and concentrate, which were estimated from the energy requirements. Furthermore, the course of the carcass value, calf revenues and the probability of, and the financial loss associated with, involuntary disposal were considered. Seasonal variation in production and prices was included in the model.Parameters of, and prices in, the model were chosen to represent the Black and White cows in The Netherlands at the normalized price level of 1981–1982.In the future the model will be used in studies on replacement policies in dairy cattle.     

Simulation of growth and production in sheep-model 1: A computer program to estimate energy and nitrogen utilisation,body composition and empty liveweight change,day by day for sheep of any age

A computer program based on empirical relationships is described. It predicts daily energy and nitrogen utilisation repetitively for sheep of any age, before, during and after weaning; provision is also made for pregnancy, lactation and cold stress. Input information includes: intake, protein content and digestibility of the diet; age, empty body weight, fat content and feeding activity of the sheep; ambient temperature and wind speed; times of shearing and mating.Metabolisable energy from milk and/or dry feed is estimated and energy requirements for maintenance, including the cost of feeding activities and homeostasis in the cold, are deducted to obtain energy balance. The amount of amino acid nitrogen absorbed from the small intestine is estimated, and nitrogen balance in body tissues and wool is calculated from this, allowing for body weight and net energy intake. Potential wool growth is calculated from nitrogen and energy intakes, and potential conceptus growth or milk production is estimated primarily from stage of pregnancy or lactation. The use of nitrogen and energy for these products is assessed and balances of energy and nitrogen in body tissues are then obtained by difference. If achievement of the potential rates of production in pregnant or lactating animals would cause excessive loss of energy or nitrogen from body tissues, production of wool and conceptus or milk is reduced sufficiently to avoid this problem. Gain or loss of body fat and protein, and hence change of empty live weight, are finally derived and the animal parameters are incremented before proceeding to calculation for the next day.Evidence is presented that the model is stable in predicting lifetime performance, and that predictions of growth curves, body composition and various nutritional parameters are reasonably accurate in a variety of circumstances.     

Dairy farm nutrient management model: 2. Evaluation of different strategies to mitigate phosphorus surplus

To reduce (P) surpluses on dairy farms and thereby the risk of P losses to natural waters we studied different management alternatives by a nutrient balance model described in the companion paper. The strategies evaluated mitigating the P surpluses were: mineral P fertilisation, dietary mineral P supplementation, replacement rate, animal density, production level, feeding intensity, dietary P concentration and nutrient efficiency in crop production. Responses to several interventions (e.g. mineral P fertilisation, purchased feed P, replacement rate) were similar to those observed in Finnish field studies. Reducing or completely giving up the use of purchased mineral P fertilisers was the most efficient measure to reduce P surplus. The slope between the amount of mineral fertilisers and P surplus was 0.98-0.99 (in the field data 1.0). Increased animal density resulted in a greater P surplus, but the slope between P input from purchased feed and surplus was considerably smaller (0.65) than that of P fertilisation. Increasing milk yield with improved genetic potential of the cows would have minimal effects on P surplus per unit of product, but it would increase P surplus per hectare. When the intensity of energy and protein feeding was increased, P surplus rose markedly both per unit of product and hectare. This is (1) due to increased dietary P concentration and (2) due to smaller marginal production responses than those calculated from feeding standards. Reducing dietary P concentration by constraining P excess per kg milk in least-cost ration formulation improved P efficiency in milk production and dairy farming system. However, feed cost increased as low P energy (sugar-beet pulp) and protein (soybean meal) supplements are more expensive than cereal grains or rapeseed feeds. Improving the nutrient use efficiency in crop production had a strong influence in the whole-farm efficiency and P surplus. The modelling results showed that Finnish dairy farms have a great potential to improve P efficiency and reduce P losses to the environment, even by increasing production intensity (milk/ha). It is concluded that the most cost-effective scenario to mitigate P surpluses at a dairy farm would be to reduce or give up the use of mineral P as fertilisers and supplements, and to improve the use of present soil P reserves.     

A general cattle production systems model. I: Structure of the model

A deterministic model for simulating beef cattle production under a wide range of management schemes and environments with cattle differing widely in genotypes for size, growth and milk production is described. In the model, genotypes are specified as production potentials, which are reached only if past and present planes of nutrition are adequate. Intake of forage and/or other feed is simulated as a function of the size and physiological status of the animals and the availability, digestibility and crude protein content of the feed. Animal performance is calculated from the nutrient intake and the animals' condition (fatness), degree of maturity and genetic potential. The model has been used for simulating beef cattle production under several widely differing sets of environmental and management conditions in Guyana, Colombia, Venezuela, Botswana, Texas and Mid-western United States and for simulating dairy-beef production systems in Colombia, Tanzania and Botswana. Results of simulations of existing conditions have coincided rather closely with actual production levels.     

A generalised model of feed intake and digestion in lactating cows

A generalised dynamic model for estimating voluntary consumption and digestion of feed by lactating dairy cows is described. Feed intake is assumed to be regulated either by metabolic factors relating energy intake to energy expenditure, or by physical factors associated with the capacity of the rumen to hold feed cell wall components. A representation of rumen function defined on an hourly basis provides estimates of digestion and passage of cell wall, and of the quantity of residue remaining in the rumen prior to the next meal from which physical intake limitations are calculated. Changes in regulation of energy intake and in maximum rumen capacity in response to changes in energy expenditure are subject to adjustment delays and are recalculated daily.Both qualitatively and quantitatively the model behaves well with respect to interactions between rumen function and short-term regulatory mechanisms over a wide range of feedstuffs. However, the dynamics of model behaviour over the long term-one lactation-indicate a systematic error in estimating changes in feed intake which is particularly evident in early lactation. The main cause of this error is thought to involve inadequacies in the representation of adjustment delays in the regulatory system.     

Feed resources,livestock production and soil carbon dynamics in Teghane,Northern Highlands of Ethiopia

In the Northern Highlands of Ethiopia, integrated crop-livestock production within smallholder farms is the dominant form of agricultural production. Feed availability and quality are serious constraints to livestock production in Ethiopia in general, and in its Northern Highlands in particular. The objective of this study was to describe the relationship between feed availability and quality and live weight gain, milk and manure production and the soil C balance in Teghane, Northern Highlands of Ethiopia. The so-called JAVA model procedure, that essentially predicts metabolizable energy intake and animal production on the basis of feed quality and quantity, has been used and linked to a soil carbon balance. Forages were ranked according to their quality (on the basis of metabolizable energy intake by livestock) in descending order. Rations were formulated by stepwise including components of increasingly lower quality to calculate the trade-offs between feed quantity and quality. In the model, the soil C balance was described in relation to soil organic matter decomposition, C input from roots, grazing and/or harvesting losses, feed residues and manure. Moreover, an analysis of monetary values of live weight gain/loss, manure and draught power is included. The results of the model showed that mean daily live weight gain and milk production per TLU continuously increased with decreasing herd size, while total annual live weight gain reached a maximum (62 Mg) at the use of the 30% best feeds and a herd size of 630 TLU. Soil C balance at this level of feed use is negative and deteriorates with increasing feed use. The model estimated an optimum herd size of 926 TLU to attain the maximum combined monetary value of live weight gain, manure and draught power at 50% feed use. Actual herd size in the study area was 1506 TLU. Our results indicate that in areas where feeds of very different quality are available, maximum benefits from meat and/or milk production and soil C balance can be attained by selective utilization of the best quality feeds, through a storage and carry-over system.     

Simulation of beef cattle production systems in the Llanos of Colombia—part I. Methodology: An alternative technology for the tropics

A simulation model was developed to study voluntary forage intake, energy requirements for maintenance, liveweight change and calving rate of grade Zebu cows in the Llanos of Colombia. Multiplicative correction factors were fitted to intake and maintenance requirement prediction equations researched from the literature to account for reduced intake due to sparse regrowth of recently burned native savanna and to conditions of mineral deficiency, increased intake and decreased maintenance requirement during periods of high compensatory gain during the rainy season, and increased intake and maintenance requirement due to the effects of lactation and gestation. A frequency distribution was constructed relating liveweight at time of mating to subsequent calving rate, and this was used to simulate the calving rates of cow herds in the Llanos. Use of the model would allow prediction of the amount of improved pasture or supplemental feed that would be necessary to raise calving rates in a particular herd to an acceptable level, defined as at least three calves per cow every four years. The model was fitted by computer and was then run on programmable calculators. This type of simulation is suited to regions of the world in which computer time is expensive or unavailable. Verifications, validations and experimentation with the model are presented in a companion paper.     

Incorporation of environment and feed quality into a net energy model for beef cattle

The California net energy system has gained wide acceptance as a method for predicting rates of gain in growing and finishing beef animals. Researchers at the University of Kentucky, in co-operation with agricultural scientists in two regional research projects, NC-114 and S-156, have developed an interactive model that enhances the usefulness of the net energy system by including skeletal size, feed quality, temperature and relative humidity to determine feed intake and utilisation. Basically, the intake based on feed availability, nutrient composition, potential skeletal size and heat loss potential. After the feed is consumed, it is utilised according to the productive status of the animal, i.e. growth, lactation, foetal development, etc., using a modified form of the net energy system to predict weight change.The model allows a researcher to easily modify environment, feed, breed characteristics and productive status so as to evaluate their influence on the performance of the animal.     

The Effect of Formic Acid with Formalin on Grass Silage Fermentation and the Performance of Dairy Cows

In the first experiment, perennial ryegrass with dry matter (DM) 260 g/kg and water-soluble carbohydrate (WSC) 140 g/kg DM was harvested as first-cut material on 25 May 1982. It was pre-wilted for 24 h prior to ensilage and treated with either a formic acid with formalin additive (WFF) at 4l/t or no additive (W) and ensiled in two adjoining covered 150 t bunker silos. Subsequently, both silages were satisfactorily fermented. Nevertheless, the pH, ammonia–N g/kg N and lactic-acid content were significantly lower and the residual WSC content significantly higher for WFF than W. Each silage was subsequently individually fed to ten Friesian and ten Holstein dairy cows, together with 10 kg/d of a compound feed containing 160 g/kg crude protein in a 70 d feeding trial. Additive treatment had no significant effect upon silage DM intake, milk output or composition. However, the daily liveweight losses of cows given WFF-treated silage were significantly higher than those given W.In the second experiment, perennial ryegrass (DM 180 g/kg and WSC 170–200 g/kg DM) harvested as first-cut material on 2 June 1983, was either cut and picked up within 20 min of cutting and treated with either the formic acid with formalin additive at 4l/t (NWFF) or no additive (NW); or wilted for a maximum of 24 h and treated with either the formic acid with formalin additive at 4l/t (WFF) or no additive (W). Wilting significantly increased subsequent silage DM. The pH of NW was significantly less than W, whilst the ammonia–N g/kg N of NWFF was significantly less than NW and W and that of W significantly higher than the other treatments. Additive treatment significantly increased the residual WSC content. Each silage was subsequently individually feed to 12 Friesian and 12 Holstein dairy cows together with 10 kg/d of a compound feed to 12 Friesian and 12 Holstein dairy cows together with 10 kg/d of a compound feed containing 160 g/kg protein in a 180 d feeding trial. The silage DM intake of WFF was significantly higher than NW. Silage treatment had no significant effect upon milk output or composition. The daily liveweight loss of cows given WFF-treated silage was significantly less than the other treatments, and the cows on NW had a significantly longer calving index than the other treatments.It is concluded that compared with non-additive-treated silage, formic acid with formalin applied at ensilage produced better fermented silage which, when subsequently given to lactating dairy cows, produced no significant increase in daily silage DM intake, milk output or composition, but had small significant effects upon liveweight change.     

Interactive formulation system for cattle diets

A system of feed formulation for lactating cows and growing cattle based on nutrient requirements proposed by the Agricultural Research Council (1980) is described. It is directed towards remote interactive use by extension staff and produces diets on a least cost basis using linear programming (LP). It can also be used for the evaluation of a specified diet, in terms of expected performance, and for locating the maximum performance level that can be supported from a given set of ingredients. This paper describes the generation of the LP matrices and the flexible way in which users can interact with the program in order to explore alternative formulations. Examples of formulated diets are given and the application of the system over 2 years in advisory offices throughout the north of Scotland is discussed.     

Implications of on-farm segregation for valuable milk characteristics

Milk composition varies between herds and cows within herds, enabling its segregation on farm, rather than during processing, for the manufacture of specific dairy products. Benefits may include increased product yields, reduced processing costs and greater suitability of differentiated milk for the production of high value niche market products. However, costs are also likely to be greater. An integrated spreadsheet model was developed to determine the break-even premium required for a farmer with a seasonal calving herd to be economically no worse off producing segregated than conventional milk. The model incorporated breeding (quantitative and qualitative traits), cow requirements and feeding, transport, and economic sub-models. Cows were segregated within herd and milk composition was altered over time by genetic selection. Four quantitative trait (“white” milk colour) scenarios and two qualitative trait (BB β-lactoglobulin milk) scenarios were considered.The model suggested that “white” milkfat would need to earn 38.4% more at the farm gate than conventional milkfat for the two systems to break even. “White” milk cows produced less than their status quo counterparts due to the reduced selection pressure on production milk traits and this had a considerable impact on the premium, as did the low initial volumes of white milkfat. The difference in production between the B β-lactoglobulin cows and their status quo counterparts was less than for selection on white milkfat only. The high risk to farmers of discontinuing a differentiated milk policy could be moderated by changing the structure of premium payments over time. Hence, processing companies and farmers will need to work together to facilitate the uptake of milk segregation. This research model could be applied by dairy companies and farmers considering milk segregation policies.     

A short-term mechanistic model of forage and livestock in the semi-arid Succulent Karoo: 1. Description of the model and sensitivity analyses

This series of two papers describes a mechanistic model that simulates within years the productivity of vegetation and livestock on the communal semi-arid rangeland of the Succulent Karoo of South Africa. The model enables users to evaluate short-term management decisions on the production of milk and meat and to develop sets of equations and rules for long-term models designed to examine the effects of different strategies on the sustainability of the ecosystem.A soil moisture module partitions daily rainfall between runoff, infiltration and drainage and also simulates the loss of soil moisture by evaporation and transpiration. Forage production by different types of plant is modelled in relation to soil moisture and the present potential for growth. Three factors are assumed to influence the animal’s preference for a specific type of plant or part of a plant: relative abundance, ease of harvesting and digestibility. The model combines three mechanisms of food intake regulation: the rate at which the animal is able to eat forage, physical capacity of the digestive system, and, in young animals, their growth potential. Metabolisable energy intake is partitioned between maintenance, accretion/depletion of body protein and fat, conceptus growth and milk production. Reproductive and survival rates are simulated in relation to predicted liveweight and liveweight changes for the different age classes of livestock.     

Comparative economics of Holstein/Gir F1 dairy female production and conventional beef cattle suckler herds – A simulation study

Three cow–calf production systems were compared using simulation: N (straightbred Nelore), AN (Nelore cows producing Angus by Nelore calves) and HG (Gir cows producing Holstein by Gir calves). All three systems produced their own straightbred replacement females. Male calves were sold at weaning and female calves in excess of those required to keep the herd size constant were sold at one year of age. In the base situation, F₁ HG females were priced at twice as much as the price per kg of the beef male calves, according to present market values. Typical 1000 ha beef cattle farms were simulated for each system, based on Brachiaria brizantha pastures managed according to recommended practices. Herd dynamics were controlled by reproduction and survival. Literature figures on monthly pasture nutrient production, live weights and milk yield were used to estimate nutrient requirements to match stocking rate to nutrient availability in each system. For calving rate set to 0.8 in all three systems, the total numbers of cows for the N, AN and HG systems were, respectively, 803, 795 and 885 and the total live weight sold annually was 129,070, 133,120 and 127,680 kg. The annual economic return on investment was 5.21%, 5.81% and 10.84%, respectively, for the N, AN and HG systems. Reducing the relative price of the HG heifers diminished the economic superiority of this system over N and AN. The difference was zero when the price of HG heifers was reduced to approximately 1.2 times the beef calf price. This also happened when the calving rate of the Gir cows was set to 0.6 keeping N cows at 0.8 or higher.     

山东省玉米栽培研究进展与展望

玉米在山东省栽种历史悠久,是农业生产中重要的粮食、畜牧饲料及经济作物。当前,面对《“十三五”农业科技发展规划》中提到的农业种植领域“节本、高效、智能、绿色”的更高要求,玉米产业发展将面临着重大机遇和严峻挑战。在这新的历史发展阶段,通过对山东省玉米栽培的阶段发展与总结回顾,对玉米栽培的高产技术、未来的科技需求及战略探索3个方面进行研究,以期对未来玉米生产高产高效可持续发展提供一定的借鉴。      

Maintenance energy requirements of grazing sheep: A detailed comparison between models

Energy requirements for maintenance of grazing sheep, as calculated in a number of sheep grazing system models, as well as in reviews of sheep nutrient requirements, are compared. The treatments of mobilization of body energy when energy from feed is in deficit are also compared. A composite calculation, which is logically consistent and based as far as possible on experimental data, is suggested, and estimates of the uncertainties in the parameters are presented.     

A systems approach to quantify greenhouse gas fluxes from pastoral dairy production as affected by management regime

A model was developed to determine what effect management practices would have on the production of the greenhouse gases (GHG) within pastorally based dairy production systems typical of those practiced in Ireland. The model simulates two levels of GHG emissions, firstly the on-farm GHG emissions of methane, nitrous oxide and carbon dioxide for example from the pastorally spreading of slurry and secondly, off-farm GHG emissions associated with both inputs brought onto the farm to maintain productivity (for example emissions arising from manufacture of concentrate feeds and fertiliser) as well as from indirect GHG emissions associated with nitrate leaching and ammonia. The aim of this work was to allow the development of effective GHG mitigation strategies at the farm level capable of reducing GHG emissions per litre of milk.Greenhouse gas emissions were modelled for nine farming systems differing in the level of concentrate supplementation (376, 810 and 1540 kg per cow per lactation) and genotype for milk production as assessed by their pedigree index (<100, 100–200 and 200–300 kg) of milk production. A three-year study to evaluate the influence of cow genetic potential for milk production and concentrate supplementation level on profitability of pasture-based systems of milk production was used to drive the Moorepark Dairy Systems Model (MDSM). Output from this model then described farm size, feed budgets, animal numbers and farm profitability when annual milk quota was set to 468,000 kg of milk year. Relating GHG emissions to annual milk sales revealed that for these pastorally based systems increasing concentrate usage reduced both on-farm and off-farm emissions, but that increasing the genotype of the dairy cow (i.e., the genetic capacity of the animal to produce milk) will increase both on-farm and off-farm GHG emissions. Lowest GHG emissions per kilogram of milk were achieved for an intermediate genotype type cow fed within a high concentrate system whilst the highest emissions were associated with high genotype cows fed within a low concentrate system. Maximum profitability was obtained when either a high concentrate feeding regime was combined with high genotype cows or where low concentrate systems were fed to low genotype cows.Relating farm profitability to GHG emissions allowed the identification of scenarios where changing from one management systems to another would achieve a simultaneous reduction in GHG emissions whilst improving farm profitability. By implementing this approach of assessing management induced change on both GHG emissions arising from the farm together with farm profitability, individual whole farm GHG mitigation strategies could be developed with a high degree of acceptability to the producer.     

Economic evaluation of current and alternative dual-purpose cattle systems for smallholder farms in the central Peruvian highlands

In four communities in the Peruvian Andes, 56 farmers were interviewed every three months over a period of one year. Information linked to milk and cattle production such as activities, inputs (labour, means of production, capital) and outputs (milk, cheese, animals) were recorded using a closed-ended questionnaire. The communities were divided into two groups with low (LC) and high (HC) level of dependence on income from milk and animal sales. The survey results showed that cattle production on the LC farms was based on less land and a smaller herd (3.32 ha/farm, 1.06 lactating cows) than on HC farms (10.28 ha/farm, 4.19 lactating cows). The data from the survey and the results of the nutritional analyses of 74 feed samples were introduced into a model that applied linear programming techniques in order to estimate the farm household income under the current production systems and evaluate the economic impact of improved forage varieties for hay production. Furthermore, the economic viability of other changes in fodder and herd management was tested. Both groups were characterised by a dual-purpose system generating a gross income from the sale of both, milk and live animals in the amount of -21 (LC) and +1057 US$/farm and year (HC). Due to higher production costs for forages and better access to markets, LC communities were characterised by an integrated crop–livestock system whereas in the HC group income was mainly based on livestock. Introduction of improved and fertilized barley for hay production, was estimated to increase the annual farm income to 127 and 1257 US$ for LC and HC, respectively. This increase was accompanied by an increment of the animal number. Maintaining the animal number but increasing the milk production/cow by feeding additional forage was a less profitable option generating 50 and 1221 US$ of income per farm and year for LC and HC, respectively. The production of hay was limited by high costs (external labour) in LC communities and the restricted availability of family labour in the HC group. A scenario based on the use of improved cow genotypes led to the highest estimated annual farm income for HC communities (1280 US$) but was less favourable for LC. The modelling results showed that the best development strategy depends on various factors such as production costs, access to the markets and to irrigation and availability of different feed resources.     

Simulation of the intake and partition of nutrients by the dairy cow: Part II— The yield and composition of milk

This paper is the second in a series describing a computer-based simulation model designed for use as a management control aid for the dairy herd and concerned with the intake and partition of nutrients by the cow. Milk production is represented in the model in two parts; the first estimates the potential milk yield for each 24 h simulation interval and the second is concerned with matching the available metabolites to the requirements associated with the potential yield. In each case, a conceptual scheme for inclusion in the model is outlined in relation to the relevant literature and the manner in which these schemes are represented in the model is described.     

A general cattle production systems model. Part 2—Procedures used for simulating animal performance

The methods used for simulating animal performance in the Texas A&M Cattle Production Systems Model are given and discussed. The GRO subroutine is used to calculate feed intake, changes in weight and skeletal size and, if appropriate, milk production level. Growth rates from the GRO subroutine, size, condition, time since calving and the fraction of the animals in the class that were in oestrus the previous month are used in the FERT subroutine to simulate the occurrence of oestrus and conception in open, breeding females. Death rates are simulated in the DIE subroutine as functions of the time of the year, the age and condition of animals in the class and, for cows, whether or not they calved during the current or previous month. The information from these subroutines is used to update the numbers and characteristics of animals in the various classes at the end of each month of simulation.