全球金融危机中的我国金融业及农业风险分析*

摘要：产业结构的变动是国民经济发展的重要特征,投入产出模型是检验经济中各产业的相互联系,进而分析一个国家或地区的宏观经济运行情况的一种经济数量分析方法。面对全球金融危机,本文运用投入产出表对金融产业与其他产业结构进行关联分析是深刻揭示金融产业结构内在机理的重要方法。本文选用了中间投入率、影响力系数、感应力系数三个指标来分析在全球金融危机中,北京、上海金融业的发展问题。研究发现,金融危机对于中国经济产业的直接冲击不会太大,但是对北京、上海的冲击可能是相对严重的。当前需要注意截断房地产开发业金融业的强烈作用,同时维护农业的发展。关键词：金融危机,投入产出;中间投入率,中国;北京;上海     

Opportunities and Challenges in Chinese Housing Industry

This article studies the opportunities and challenges in housing industry in China and proposes its development tendency.     

藠头与日本肯定列表略论

通过调查分析,结合实地考查,对藠头产业应对日本"肯定列表制度"进行了系统的分析和总结,并提出了相关建议。     

PEST模型对比分析中美发展海洋产业的宏观环境

海洋强国是十八大期间国家提出的一项新的战略目标,海洋产业发展的研究成为一项新的热点。海洋产业的发展同其他行业一样,受到宏观环境的约束。为了改善当前的海洋产业的发展宏观环境,通过采用对比分析的研究方法,利用PEST模型从发展海洋产业的政治法律环境、经济环境、社会文化环境和科技环境,与美国这个海洋强国进行对比,发现中国的海洋产业发展缺乏国家层面的相关法律法规以及经济倾斜政策,国民普遍缺乏海洋意识,海洋科技的研究缺乏学科间的交叉融合。要改善中国海洋产业的宏观环境,首要任务是提升国民的海洋意识,让所有国民意识到海洋发展的重要性,敦促国家出台配套完善的海洋相管法律以及经济倾斜政策。     

A Study on Evaluation of Economy of Commodity Housing

The housing industry, as a new economy growth point and hot point of consumption in our national economy, has huge potentials for its development. Because of the underdevelopment of the commodity housing market in our country, there are some unhealthy tendencies, such as low level of development, poor quality of housing, waste of resources, large deviation between housing function and its price, and so on. So there is urgent need to take measures for avoiding these unhealthy phenomena. It is one of the strongest measures to evaluate the economy of the commodity housing. In this paper the meaning, principle and method of the evaluation on economy of the commodity housing were discussed. It will play a positive role to promote spreading this work.     

休闲渔业产业与相关产业的灰色关联度分析

为了研究休闲渔业对其他产业的影响,运用灰色关联度分析方法,以浙江省休闲渔业产业为例,系统分析了休闲渔业产业对其他产业的带动作用。结果表明休闲渔业产业与文化、体育和娱乐业,金融业以及住宿和餐饮业呈现出高度关联,且休闲渔业产业与文化、体育和娱乐业的关联度最高,达到0.9012;而休闲渔业产业与信息传输、计算机服务和软件业,交通运输、仓储和邮政业以及水产养殖业呈现出中度关联的结论,其中与水产养殖业的关联度最低为0.5793。研究表明中国在发展休闲渔业时存在资源利用不充分、传统观念难以改变等问题,休闲渔业的发展与文化体育业等其他产业的发展以及政府完善的金融及补助政策密切相关。该结果为休闲渔业产业进一步发展及研究提供了参考。     

Discussion on Establishment and Developmentof Policy Housing Financial System in China's Cities

China has a large population of 1.2 billion.To solve the housing problem of middle_low income families and realize a condition,under which people can live in peace and work contentedly,a policy housing financial system(PHFS)with Chinese characteristics must be established.PHFS is a special financial area.The combination of financial relationships,forms and methods related to the purchase,construction or rehabilitation of housing for middle_low income families,is the core of policy housing financial system.It has real meaning for studying theory and practice of PHFS,its role in development of housing industry,and promoting economic growth of the country,civilization and progress of the society.     

Potential for the Adaptation and the Strategic Implementation of Local and PRC Resources for Industrialised Housing in Chongqing

The provision of quality industrialized housing in Chongqing to meet demand is perceived by the Chongqing Construction Commission to be a key feature of the local construction industry's future development. The growing strategic importance of Chongqing as a developing municipality, at the junction of the Yangtze and Jialing rivers, will ensure continuing economic development in the region. To facilitate such development the local construction industry will need to react accordingly to provide new infrastructure, commercial development, and housing and recreation facilities. Clearly, this must be achieved in accordance with a robust Master Plan, which addresses all issues associated with the built environment and other environmental considerations relating to pollution, conservation and sustainability. Throughout the World it is becoming increasingly recognized that traditional forms of construction are not sustainable in the long term and that new concepts and methods of construction must be developed. Construction must more effectively utilize and re-cycle resources that would otherwise become depleted or exhausted. Further, all aspects of the in-use performance of buildings, especially housing, must be significantly improved. The situation in Chongqing is no exception to this perception and hence the purpose of this paper is to evaluate locally available resources and relevant resources elsewhere in China to assess the potential for adaptation for effective use in industrialized housing. A broad approach will be taken covering all forms of human and non-human resources, especially those resources which can be re-cycled rather than being consigned to waste. By-products from other industries will be considered, such as those from agriculture and manufacturing. A key aspect of this paper is the articulation of a framework to facilitate the realization and development of an industrialized housing system by the creation of an integrated supply chain capable of delivering the necessary design and performance features geared to affordability, conservation and sustainability. The paper will be concludes by presentation of recommendations regarding the introduction of a development strategy geared to an incremental timetable for implementation.     

湖南农业生态系统能值结构功能效率分析

为了探究湖南农业生态系统的能值投入产出结构功能与效率,揭示该区域人与自然资源和环境的相互关系,以能值理论为研究方法,以湖南农业2009年投入产出数据为依据,对湖南农业生态系统的能值结构、功能和效率进行实证分析。结果表明：（1）系统结构特点：湖南农业仍具有传统农业的生产特点,对劳动力、畜力的依赖性较大。工业辅助能值中,化肥对系统的贡献率最高,农业机械化水平低。工业辅助能值可更新比偏低,农业绿色能源的开发潜力和前景较大。系统产品定价偏低,忽视了自然资源和环境对农业生产的贡献,也反映出湖南农业产业链条相对短,产品附加值较低的特性。系统内部种植业和畜牧业的能值产出占绝对优势比例且其市场定价相对于林业和渔业偏低。（2）功能：该系统环境负载率虽不高,但是人口承受力超载。系统可持续发展指数为5.96,表明该系统富有活力和发展潜力,也意味着该系统经济并非常不发达、自然资源和环境的压力不是很大。（3）效率：该系统2009年的能值投入产出率略低于全国水平,表现出较明显的粗放型经济特点。因此,控制人口过快增长,转移剩余劳动力,进一步调整农业产业结构和产品结构,加强农业技术开发和利用,延长产业链,提高农业机械化和现代化水平是当前湖南农业的基本政策取向。     

The Development of Industrialised Housing Abroad and the Enlightenment to Us

With the trend of developing industrialised housing in China, based on analyzing and studying the development of industrialised housing abroad, this paper puts forward the enlightenment to us and the emphases, adopted approaches in the development process.     

Analysis on the Property Right of Housing in China and It''s Resolving Method

Through the detail analysis for the development of the housing property right and it's present situation, this paper points out the problems existed in the housing property right which will influence the development of Chinese housing industry. A constructive discussion on resolving these problems was made in this paper.     

General Survey on Future Trend of Housing Consumption in China

Based on the present conditions of China, this paper analyzes the developing trend of housing industry. Through the statistical figures, it anticipates that the housing industry will become the new hot spot with the increase of people's revenue. Moreover, some advice on the development of the housing industry is provided in order to adapt to the trend.     

Models of Housing Industry Group Establishment

According to enterprise's running environment and economic level, great housing industry group should be formed with concentrated intelligence, skill and fund as well as specialization and integration. Different establishment models can be adopted by housing industry group to realize housing industry modernization and promote the development of national economy.     

基于发展环境及影响因素的产业发展动因浅析——以秸秆人造板产业为依托

摘要：秸秆人造板产业是人造板的子产业,同时又与林业产业息息相关。三者联系紧密,属于逻辑上的包涵与被包涵关系,在产业特征和发展过程上具有诸多的一致性。从产业的角度来看,三者的产业发展动因具有相当程度的一致性,尤其是秸秆人造板与人造板产业的一致性更强。秸秆人造板有别于其他人造板子产业的根本则在于其新产业的特征和原材料的差异性。理清人造板产业发展态势、内外部环境及影响因素,对于分析和研究秸秆人造板产业发展动因具有非常重要的意义。本文以人造板产业发展轨迹、战略环境及主要影响因素为重要参考,结合其秸秆人造板新产业特征,从而分析和提炼出秸秆人造板的产业发展动因,并对动因进行梳理,形成动力因素框架,在产业发展动因方面进行初步地探讨和分析。     

论乡村产业振兴

当前,全国上下正在全力推进乡村振兴战略的实施。乡村振兴,产业兴旺是重点。如何实现乡村产业振兴、产业兴旺,这是值得研究的紧迫而现实的重要问题。本文首先从乡村产业振兴在乡村振兴战略中的地位与作用入手分析,对新中国成立70年来中国乡村产业发展的历程进行了简要回顾,并将其划分为4个发展阶段：第一阶段：1949—1977年,传统产业缓慢发展;第二阶段：1978—2000年,乡镇企业异军突起;第三阶段：2001—2011年,新型产业不断涌现;第四阶段：2012年至今,乡村产业绿色“转型”。同时也指出了当前中国乡村产业存在的突出问题,即：产业门类少、生产规模小、产业层次浅、产业链条短、生产效率低、特色产业弱、品牌产业缺、产业环境差、产品质量低和缺乏竞争力。最后,针对上述存在的问题,提出了实施乡村振兴战略、实现乡村产业振兴要遵循的6大原则和10项具体措施,以期为推动实施乡村振兴战略做出积极贡献。     

Commuting Flows and Labour Market Structure: Modelling Journey to Work Behaviour in an Urban Environment

Using a probabilistic model of urban commuting based on job accessibility, commuting patterns are analysed for the inner and outer parts of Melbourne in 2001 and 2006. Variations in commuting behaviour between different parts of the city and different time periods can be largely ascribed to changes in urban densities, while variations between industries appear to be influenced by a complex mixture of factors, chief among them the role of industry wages and salaries in determining housing choice, and the level of job market specialisation. The implications for urban planning are discussed.     

广西优势特色产业——茶叶发展研究

广西是茶树生长最适宜的地区之一,茶叶已成为广西优势特色产业,如何加速广西茶叶的发展,对增加农民收入发展广西经济具有较大意义。通过对国内外茶叶市场及广西茶叶发展过程存在问题和广西茶叶发展优势进行分析,提出今后广西茶叶发展思路。认为政府的重视和支持,充分发挥广西优势实现品种良种化、经营规模化、管理科学化、生产机械化、注重品牌打造茶科技茶文化同步发展,相信广西茶叶会得到更快更好的发展,“广西早春茶”会叫响全国。     

An Alternative to Aggregated Base Tables in Input-Output Table Regionalization

Analysts faced with the challenge of constructing a regional input-output table from partial or nonsurvey-based data typically adapt a national input-output table to reflect the regional economic structure. Detailed benchmark input-output tables with more than 500 industry sectors are compiled for years at five-year intervals, but are many years out of date by the time they are released. Annual updates are compiled for intervening years, but detail only 85 industry sectors. Analysts therefore must choose between the currency of the data and its detail in the national table that serves as the reference. This paper presents a table disaggregation and adjustment (TDA) method for combining the information from the detailed benchmark tables with the more current but aggregated data. Empirical tests demonstrate that the TDA method generates base data that analytically outperform the aggregated annual update data.     

大别山区油茶产业高质量发展研究

通过综述大别山区油茶产业发展现状,提出山区油茶产业发展具有资源环境好、产业体系相对完整、绿色发展成效突出、发展空间大等有利条件,并从投入产出效益、加工、产品市场等方面分析存在的问题,针对问题提出相应的对策建议：（1）优化产业布局、提高农业收益,（2）延长产业链、推进一体化发展,（3）坚持绿色发展、创新加工技术,（4）实施品牌经营、提高市场占有率,（5）拓展农业功能、推动产业融合发展。期望这些建议能够助力山区油茶产业高质量发展,形成山区创新发展新格局。     

金昌市城市化与就业结构演变的计量分析

基于金昌市1981-2015年的经济统计数据,通过OLS回归模型、Granger因果检验、脉冲响应函数等方法定量与定性分析金昌市的城市化水平与就业结构的关系,结果表明：1)城市化进程与三次产业就业结构的演变具有阶段性：初步发展阶段、波动探索阶段、快速发展阶段;2)金昌市的城市化水平与第三产业就业结构呈现正向的脉冲关系,与第二产业就业为负向脉冲关系,与第一产业就业为负向脉冲关系;3)金昌市的城市化水平处于快速发展阶段,就业结构以二、三产业为主。