Model of Real Estate Portfolio Investment Based on the Least Risk

The high-speed development demands new real estate investment theory. Using the experiences of the Western developed countries for reference in property investment and modern portfolio investment theory, the paper introduces the conception of systematic and unsystematic risk with the centre of risk and profit. Consequently, the model of real estate base on least risk and anticipated profit is studied in the discussion of its concerned hypothesis and determining the concerned parameters. With living example analysis, we reach the conclusion that portfolio investment risk is smaller than single investment if the investor adjusts the tactics of portfolio investment.     

Irrational Analyse on Investment Decision

The theory of cognitive dissonance provides a new psychology way of investment decision.A decision-maker faces many dissonances when he makes a decision.Dissonance accompanies the pressure of dissonance reduction.The ways of dissonance reduction include changing a behavior cognitive element,a circumstance cognitive element or increasing new cognitive elements.     

Some Properties and Model of the Efficient Margin in Portfolio Combinatorial Investment

This paper proves some properties of the efficient margin in portfolio combinatorial investment and presents a methematical model for calculating the optimal weighted vector of portfolio combinatorial investment     

A Caculation Method of Portfolio Investment under the Risk Mininiz

According to the security investment theory of Markowitz,this paper presents aCaculation method of portfolio investment under the risk minimization,and some mathematic expres-sions of the efficient frontier for portfolio investment are conducted.Based on these,the efficientfrontier is proved as a parabola,and a practical caculation process is given.     

Research on a Risk Investment Portfolio with Stochastic Character

With the theory of stochastic differential equation, the authors discuss a problem of a class of risk investment portfolio with stochastic character. With the selection of appropriate utility function and combines the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation, under the assumption that an optimal portfolio exists, and by using the Homologous Lagrangian function, some quantitative results of this risk optimal investment portfolio are given. With these quantitative results, some qualitative results are got. These results concord with the results of the theory of risk investment.     

Real Option Method in Real Estate Investment Decision

Through analysis of basic assumptions and limitations of the conventional real estate investment decision method, in this paper, its unconformity to the investment environment, which includes a great number of uncertain elements, is pointed out. By analyzing the real option and the price formula, the pattern of real option in real estate investment decision is put forward and this breaks through the limitations of the conventional investment decision method and makes the decision scientifically and reasonably, moreover, it has some directive significance to investment administration work of real estate corporation.     

The Generalized Conjugate Direction Method for Constrained Optimization A Geometrical Approech

The conjugate direction method for solving the unconstrained optimization problem is extended to solving the constrained optimization problem by method of differential geomtry.By inducing a new class of affine connections on a constrained sub-manifold, the primary constrched optilnhation problem is converted to a unconstrained local quadratic programming problem.Based on the definition and construction of a new class of generalized conjugate directions, it isproved that optimum value of the primary constrained optimization problem must be located on thegeodesic line which is formed by the conjugate directions mentioned above and can be reached withinfinite searching step. Therefore a new curve search algorithm with generalized conjugate directions isput forward.     

Appraisal Model of Investment Decision and Its Application

Through building the appraisal model of investment chance and relative appraisal index, the best investment chance could be chosen by systematic analysis scientifically and objectively, so as to avoid blind investment and ensure the development of national economy and the interests of investors.     

The Application of Bayes Method to Real Risk Decision - Making

The risk probability analysis is a difficult problem in real investment risk decision-making.Traditional analyses methods of sensitivity and probability can not be used to change the decisions and adjust the development of practicality.Using the methods of BAYES and decision tree,this paper introduced the application method and relational decision rules of BAYES in real investment risk decision-making by a case.     

Option-game Analysis on the Investment Decision of Enterprise

In the analysis on the investment decision of enterprise under uncertainty, NPV is not applicable. From the view of the real option, uncertainty makes the monopoly enterprise delay the investment. This paper analyses the problem of investment decision under different assumptions in the option-game framework, taking the uncertainty and competition into account. Delay is not optimal for the non-monopoly enterprise. The symmetry and the information completeness of the enterprises will affect the investment strategic and equilibrium of the game.     

The Application of Furry Decision for Generation Expansion Planning

Fuzzy decision was applied to the generation expansion planning and a method of fuzzy decision of generation expansion planning has been presented in this paper.     

A Study on the Mathematical Models for Two Dimensional Guillotine Cullting-stock

Based on the analysis and study on some existed models for two-dimensional Guillotine Cutting-Stock problem, it is pointed out that some kinds of the models may miss some good cutting patterns,and some may result in inadequate solutions because of only considering the patterns with the smallest waste. A kind of revised two-dimensional cutting-stock models are developed,which transform the two-dimensional problem into the one-dimensional one using the dimension-decreasing heuristic method and whose initial patterns are considered comprehensively. In this kind of models, not only the least waste,but also the other constraints,such as the demands and the relative area of the order plates are considered.     

以投资为目的的森林资源资产评估问题探讨

随着以投资为目的的森林资源资产评估业务日益增多,许多相关的理论问题亟需解决。通过对该目的下的价值类型、评估方法、评估参数等问题研究发现:价值类型的选择主要取决于委托者的利益诉求,同时要考虑现实市场条件的限制,具体可选类型包括市场价值类型与投资价值类型;评估方法的选择要与评估目的、价值类型相适应。当选择市场价值类型时,市场比较法应该是评估首选。当选择投资价值类型时,如果委托方是财务投资者,收益现值法是评估首选,如果委托方是战略投资者,公式P=Va+S×K应是评估首选;评估参数的选择,要与评估方法相一致,市场法的关键参数是可比的参照对象,收益现值法应用的关键参数是投资收益率,公式P=Va+S×K应用的关键参数是收益分成率K。以投资为目的的森林资源资产评估中,还要考虑森林采伐限额及其他相关政策的影响。     

A Simulative Method of Investment Decision in Real Estate Development

This paper has simulated major risk factors and estimation indexes which influence on project investment in real estate development. It confirms the scope of risk factors by reaching it's reliability, The problems are resolved in obtaining values of factors and it's probabilistic distributing;the limitation is over come in estimating the income of investment by a point-estimation.An impersonal and reliable method of investment decision is provided in real estate development, and the result is ideal in practive test.     

2种集合预报方法在内蒙古汛期降水中的对比试验

为了研究EC集合预报方法,笔者基于EC集合预报系统51个成员的温度及降水IDL格点资料,以内蒙古2014年汛期逐日降水过程为例,用择优法进行试验,并与集合平均预报进行对比。结果表明：（1）在短期预报中,集合成员个数增加到3或4时平均相关系数最高,成员个数增加到较多或减少时平均相关系数逐渐减小;（2）选择相关系数较大的成员作为集合成员进行集合降水预报试验,效果得到一定改善,并优于集合平均法的预报,因此需对集合预报中集合成员的个数的选取加以研究;（3）无论是集合平均法还是择优法,对大雨以上量级降水预报效果较差,因此有必要研究更好的集合预报方法,使集合预报在灾害性天气预报中的应用得到进一步发展。     

基于熵权的DTOPSIS法和灰色局势决策法在玉米品种区域试验中的应用探讨

良种是农业科技的重要载体,农作物品种区域试验是鉴定新品种丰产性、稳产性和适应性的主要途径。首次探索将基于熵权的DTOPSIS法和灰色局势决策法应用于玉米区域试验中,对2018年河南农科联合体的18个品种（含对照品种）进行综合评价。结果表明：两种评价方法对品种评价的排序结果差异不大,只有5个品种排名顺序稍有差异,差异最大的品种排名相差2个名次,其余4个品种仅相差1个名次,灰色局势决策法计算过程相对简单。同时还发现基于熵权的DTOPSIS法和灰色局势决策法在玉米综合评价中存在产量指标权重较低的问题。因此,根据现阶段玉米育种目标和生产实际需求,玉米区域试验品种评价时应采用多种品种评价方法相结合,在确保审定品种产量的基础上,降低品种在实际种植生产过程中的风险。     

Hierarchy-degree of Gray Relationship Ddecision of Land Investment Based on Cloud Model

The competition in the land market is drasticly increasing, which demands much higher scientificity and accuracy in the decision. The land investment decision system is a non-linear gray system and the traditional appraisal methods have some limit in appraising it. It uses cloud model and the uncertain illation based on the cloud model, translates the qualitative appraisal of the factors level into quantitative scores, achieves the transition between a linguistic term of a qualitative concept and its numerical representation ; and further merges the degree of gray relationship theory to appraise the comprehensive level of the objects. So the new decision mode is set up. Through an example analysis and contrast study, the validity of the method is validated. The application of cloud theory in the decision field will affirmatively improve the decision level.     

An Application of Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman Equation in Optimal Investment

The simple portfolio investment model is given, with the HJB equation. The optimal portfolio investment problem is discussed under some given supposition, the quantitative relations are gotten between the investment strategies and riskless investment income rate and risk investment income rate are gotten. And with the quantitative relations, we study the qualitative relations between the investment strategies and riskless investment income rate and risk investment income rate. This also accounts for the effect of the falling interest rate of RMB on the national economy.     

Risky Investment Contracts with the Theory of Games

There exists the information asymmetry between venture capitalists and venture entrepreneurs which can cause the problem of moral hazard. To deal with the problem of moral hazard, it is necessary to choose the proper investment tool and compensation policy. A game model is set up, which helps to study which tool is the best investment tool among debt, common stock, convertible preferred stock and convertible debt, given the venture entrepreneurs can be made work hard. By the analysis of the model, a fact can be found that convertible preferred stock and convertible debt is the best way if the better result is twice larger than the original capital. Otherwise, the form of debt will be better.