A SFG METHOD FOR RELIABILITY EVALUATION OF HVDC SYSTEMS

Steady-state probability, frequency and duration are the three main indices in reliability evaluation of the HVDC systems. Generally, they are solved by numerical methods. Their topolgical formulaes are derived by using the basic theory of ccates graph and considering conditions for some particularity of state-space in this paper. A set of generalised formulaes can be applied to obtain these indices expression about reliability parameters of components. Finally,an example is given to illustrate and verify this method.     

An ALgorithm of the Second Kind Fuzzy Reliability

Based on L.A.Zadeh's idea of fuzzy probability operation in his language probability which space is fuzzy probability,the concrete algorithm of the second kind fuzzy reliability of engineering structure/system is researched.The calculating equation of the fuzzy probabiliy of the second kind fuzzy reliability is given out by using the extension principle for fuzzy sets.The fuzzy set decompose theorem,which satesfies the closed probability operation,is given out and proved.The method calculating fuzzy reliability of that structure/system is studied,where the resistance and load effect of the structure/system have probability.The analysis indicates that the calculation of the second kind fuzzy reliability for a structure/system can be transformed into a series of solving optimum programming.The result of the example indicates the rationality of above algorithm.     

Fatigue Reliability Analysis Based on Probability Density Evolution Method

Based on the probability conservation principle, a joint probability density evolution equation of random parameters and fatigue damage is derived. Probability density evolution surface and cumulative probability isoline of fatigue damage in term of the evolution equation can be used to predict the probability distribution of fatigue damage and fatigue reliability with a given damage threshold. The numerical solution of fatigue reliability for a constant-amplitude test has a good agreement with the experimental result. For a variable-amplitude fatigue test, the computation results, which are calculated according to probability parameters of two constant-amplitude fatigue life tests and Miner's rule, are also in good agreement with the experimental results.     

Computer Aided Decision-Making System of Power System Reliability Evaluation Based on Object-oriented

The reliability is an important component part of research fields in power system. This paper presents an application of object oriented programming to develop reliability evaluation system of electric networks. A new approach to reliability evaluation and graph expression is proposed, and a computer aided decision making system of electric network reliability evaluation using Visual C++ 5.0 under Windows95 environment is developed. The system can provide reliability data for power system operation and plan, which is the foundation for operation and decision making. It has the characteristics of better expansibility, convenient usage, user friendly interfaces and so on.     

地震时城市供水管网连通可靠性分析

在分析地震条件下管线功能函数及极限状态方程基础上,对城市供水管单元体进行震害预测。以供水管网系统作为边权的有向网络图,通过基于神经网络的Monte Carlo方法,模拟各管线运行状态及其破坏状态。结合图论理论,分析供水管网的管线连通可靠性。     

土体抗剪强度指标变异水平对边坡稳定安全系数取值的影响

针对传统的边坡稳定极限平衡方法不能考虑土体抗剪强度指标变异性影响的问题,基于极限状态的概率分析原理,采用Monte-Carlo法对均质路堤边坡的稳定性开展了可靠度计算,讨论了稳定安全系数一定的条件下边坡失效概率随土体抗剪强度指标变异水平的变化规律,分析了安全系数与边坡可靠指标的对应关系及其随土体抗剪强度指标变异水平的变化特征。研究表明：边坡可靠度受土体抗剪强度指标变异性影响显著,呈现出随土体抗剪强度指标变异水平提高而急剧减小的趋势;为保证边坡具有相同的可靠性,安全系数的取值应与土体抗剪强度指标的变异性相适应,据此提出了基于可靠指标和土体抗剪强度指标变异水平的安全系数取值原则及其对应的三参数函数关系式。     

Recognizing the reliability non-coherence components ofdistribution substation typical configuration

Reliability non-coherence components (RNC) may exist in a power system due to the effects of distribution substation connection modes, components reliability performance, load level, and other factors. Recognizing RNCs and removing them from a power system can improve system reliability. The reliability non-coherence phenomenon is analyzed and the reliability non-coherence probability, frequency and energy indices, which can describe the degree of the system reliability non-coherence feature, are proposed. Based on the reliability evaluation theory of substation configuration, recognizing technique of RNCs of distribution substation is proposed. The theoretical analysis and example show that the breaker connects high voltage buses may be the RNC when the rated capacity of one transformer can meet the load requirement, and the reliability parameters of breakers have some effects on the reliability non-coherence features of the typical substation configuration.     

Deterioration Model and Reliability Analysis on Concrete Material at Stress States

According to the analysis of existing test data, the stress influence coefficient and water-cement ratio influence coefficient in the existing concrete carbonation depth forecasting models are modified and improved. Based on the reliability analysis, the rule of deterioration life is presented. The analysis shows that the rate of carbonation of concrete is accelerated or restricted at the status of tensile or compressive stress, respectively. Especially with the increase of the level of tensile stress, the carbonation rate of concrete will become faster and faster. According to the results of reliability analysis, the relation between probability and reliability of the concrete deterioration is one-to-one corresponsive, meanwhile, the concrete cover thicknesses and stress levels have great influences on the durability life of concrete structures. And with the same reliability, the time of deterioration of concrete decreases with a higher stress levels and a less cover thickness.     

THE FOUR-MOMENT RELIABILITY ANALYSIS METHOD FOR PERFORMANCE FUNCTION IMPLICIT STRUCTURE

In this paper,the four-moment reliability analysis method for perfopmance function implicit structure is discussed. Discrete formulas expressed by Gauss-quadrature are presented when determine the parameter of probability density function which is established based on maximum entropy theory. The method in this paper is proposed for performance function implicit structure. Particularly, the discrete formulas used in this paper largely reduce calculating work with the same precision, so that the time-consume problem of four-moment reliability anlaysis is solved.     

Analysis of salt rock underground deposit failure probability in operation period based on response surface method

For the safety of salt rock underground deposit, uncertainties and their influences are considered, and failure probability during operation period is analyzed. Based on finite element model, equation of limit state surface is transformed into explicit equation by response surface method. Combined with Monte Carlo method, computation efficiency is improved. The deposit could be simulated as a series-parallel system. The element with highest failure probability is determined first, then failure mode and system reliability are computed. Taking Jintan underground gas deposit as an example, the analysis indicates that as storage pressure increases, failure probability of middle part of deposit decreases firstly, then increases gradually when storage pressure accumulates to a certain extent. The failure probabilities of upper part and underside of deposit increase as storage pressure increases. During operation period, controlled failure mode is shear failure of upper part and underside of deposit under high storage pressure. In conclusion, the storage pressure during operation period should be controlled strictly.     

DETERMING THE RELIABILITY OF A MEMBER WITH CRACK ACCORDING TO THE INFORMATION FROM FLAW-DETECTION WITH ULTRASONIC WAVE

Using the flaw-detecting with ultrasonic wave one may know the equivalant area of a crack that burys in the member. If the crack is ellipse shaped, the equivalant area is constant, and the distribution function of its major semiaxle and the plane strain fracture toughness of the material are given, then we would get the probability of reliability of the member under the uniform tension. In this condition, a formula of calculating the probability would be provided in this paper. Because a simple and enough precise approximate function has been introduced the formula in the paper is simple in shape and easy to use.     

Reliability Evaluation for Bulk Power System Including Dependent Outage of Transmission Line

In order to calculate and analyze the effect of two transmission lines in parallel on the reliability evaluation of bulk power system, a model including independent outage, common mode outage and dependent outage of these lines is deduced and a new algorithm corresponding to the model is presented. Two transmission lines in parallel including common mode outages and dependent outages can be really simulated as a multi-state component. While reliability indices are calculated, the probability and frequency of independent outage, common mode outage and dependent outage of a system failure state can be calculated at the same time, and computation complexity is reduced. The proposed model and algorithm are applied to the RBTS system, IEEE One Area RTS96 system and a real power system for reliability computation and analysis. Results show that the new algorithm is credible and validity.     

Analysis on Predictive Methods of BIM Based on Construction Schedule Reliability

In order to realize the predictive function of BIM technology, the reliability theory and theoretical probability method are utilized to judge the uncertainty which exists in the process of construction. Meanwhile, the complicated relationship between construction schedule and prediction model is analyze, the random prediction model for construction schedule is established as well. Particularly, the influencing condition about a single factor in the process of construction is taken into consideration. Determinate model and random model for construction time as well as reliability analysis method for the construction time prediction which is based on a single influencing factor are studied .At the same time, The integrated management method of reliability prediction about construction schedule which is on basis of BIM management platform is discussed. The case study shows that the proposed method has delivered dramatic results to the control of construction schedule.     

Parameter uncertainty analysis for probability distribution of bulk power systerm reliability

Component reliability parameters are of uncertainty and are affected by the component type, operation time, and weather conditions. So do the reliability indices of bulk power systems. The calculation of its probability distributions and its alteration law affected by parameters uncertainty are researched to provide practical engineering reference with exploring the impact of the parameter uncertainty on reliability assessment. The point estimate method is firstly proposed based on the two-loop Monte-Carlo simulation, and then the improved Monte-Carlo simulation is presented to enhance the calculation efficiency further. Moreover, their theories, merits and faults are explained in detail. It can be seen from the evaluation results for the RBTS power systems that the accuracy of the three methods are similar but the improved Monte-Carlo simulation has the highest efficiency, followed by the point estimate method. The IEEE-RTS 79 power system is evaluated by using the improved Monte-Carlo simulation, and the results verify its validity.     

Dynamic Responses of the High Slender Structure Under Non-Gaussian Model of Wind Load

With reference to the effect of the quadratic component of turbulent-wind fluctuation, the statistical moments of wind load up to the 4~(th) order are derived and the spectrum densities are given based on the Fourier transformation. By means of the Gram-Charlier series, the first-order probability densities of the structure responses are then constituted with the former 4~(th) order central moments of responses. Under the independent hypothesis of the structural displacement and its derivative, whose applicability is verified by the correlation between the two signals, the joint probability density function is developed and a numerical scheme for the analysis of the dynamic behaviors of the high-slender structure under wind excitation is obtained. Parametric analysis on dynamic responses and reliability under both Gaussian and non-Gaussian models of wind load are then investigated.     

A reliability evaluation model for photovoltaic/diesel hybrid power generation system

Photovoltaic power generation is considered to be one of the most promising power generation forms. It is difficult to accurately assess the reliability of the photovoltaic system (PVS) for the volatility and intermittent of the light intensity. By analyzing PVS component failure modes and their impacts on PVS output power, the reliability model of PVS is built. Then the probability model of PVS output power is presented by considering both illumination uncertainty and PVS component random faults. According to the influence of components random faults outside the intentional islands on the reliability of load points inside the intentional islands, the concepts of repair zone, isolation zone and zero zone are defined. Furthermore, by considering the fail-operation of breaker and fuse, the concept for zone hierarchy is proposed, and the analytical formulas to calculate reliability indices of the load points inside the intentional islands are deduced. The application of the presented reliability evaluation model is clarified using a typical example to show the practicality and validity of the proposed approach.     

ANSYS/PDS风电齿轮箱收缩盘联接可靠性分析

笔者建立了某风电齿轮箱主轴收缩盘联接的轴对称参数化有限元模型,并结合主轴扭矩作用应用ANSYS非线性接触对该模型进行了强度分析。由于材料属性、制造过程、边界条件以及载荷等设计参数的不确定性会影响计算的精确性,应用ANSYS/PDS模块,根据失效模式确定整体功能函数并由此建立结构极限状态方程,采用蒙特卡罗超拉丁采样方法对收缩盘联接进行可靠性分析,得到整体联接的可靠度和失效率,并给出累积概率分布。研究结果表明:收缩盘传扭联接性能和结构件强度均满足设计要求,其联接的可靠度达到94.8%,达到了工程设计要求,对风电齿轮箱收缩盘联接的可靠性设计具有一定的指导意义。     

电网可靠性评估的网络静态等值模型分析

为缓解大电网可靠性评估的计算复杂性,采取等值参数联合概率密度分布建模的方式开展了外网静态等值研究。在常规确定性静态Ward等值技术基础上,考虑外部区域发电机和线路随机故障,通过计算各种随机故障状态下的外网等值参数,即外网等值注入功率和外网等值串联支路阻抗,基于概率密度估计技术建立了等值参数的联合概率密度分布。外网静态概率等值模型克服了常规确定性静态Ward等值技术的不足,充分计入外网等值参数的随机性,减少了电网可靠性评估计算时间的同时提高了计算精度。对两区域RBTS系统和RTS79系统研究验证了其有效性和准确性。     

A Method for Numerical Simulating Density Distribution in Sand Packing

Various cost simulation software packages are extensively used in the construction industry today. There are some differences in the problems to which they are applied,but it is essential that users select suitable known distributions and estimate the parameter values for cost elements before starting any simulation. The accuracy and reliability of the simulation results depend on such selections. This paper proposes a practical and accurate selection method based upon the least differences of expected values and standard deviations between a known distribution and an estimated cost probability histogram.